一个简单的指南，介绍债务上限以及第14修正案与其相关的内容

The US government could start to run out of money within weeks unless it allows itself to borrow more. So how did we get to this point?

美国政府可能在几周内耗尽资金，除非它允许自己借更多的钱。那么我们是如何走到这一步的呢？
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On Tuesday, US President Joe Biden met Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to resume the high-stakes budget negotiations.

周二，美国总统乔·拜登与共和党众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡会面，恢复高风险的预算谈判。

There are dire predictions of global financial chaos if US Congress can't agree on a deal to raise what is known as the debt ceiling.

如果美国国会不能就提高所谓的债务上限达成协议，那么预测就会出现全球金融混乱的情况。

If the politicians fail to reach an agreement, the US could default on its debt.

如果政治家们未能达成协议，美国可能会违约其债务。

So, what is the debt ceiling?

那么，什么是债务上限呢？

Also known as the debt limit, this is a law that limits the total amount of money the government can borrow to pay its bills.

债务上限又称为债务限额，是一项法律，来限制政府借款支付其账单的法律。

This includes paying for federal employees, the military, Social Security and Medicare, as well as interest on the national debt and tax refunds.

这包括支付联邦雇员、军队、社会保障和医保支出，以及国家债务利息和退税。

Every so often US Congress votes to raise or suspend the ceiling so it can borrow more.

美国国会每隔一段时间就会投票决定是否提高或暂停上限，以便借更多的款项。

The cap currently stands at roughly $31.4tn (£25.2tn). That limit was breached in January, but the Treasury Department used "extraordinary measures" to provide the government with more cash while it figured out what to do.

当前上限大约为31.4万亿美元（25.2万亿英镑）。该上限在1月份被突破，但财政部采取了“特别措施”为政府提供更多现金，以便在解决问题时使用。

How US debt ceiling became game of political chicken

美国债务上限如何成为政治博弈？

Usually it's a formality for Congress to raise the limit as needed but this time it can't seem to agree on the terms.

通常情况下，国会会根据需要提高债务上限，但这次各方似乎无法就条款达成共识。

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that without more borrowing, the US will not have enough money to meet all of its financial obligations as soon as 1 June.

财政部长贾纳特·耶伦警告称，如果没有更多的借款，美国最早在6月1日就会没有足够的资金来支付其所有财务支出。

What happens if the US defaults on its debt?

如果美国违约会发生什么？

This has never happened before so it is not entirely clear, but it would cause major economic damage.

这从未发生过，所以情况不是完全清楚，但这会造成重大经济损失。

The government would no longer be able to pay the salaries of federal and military employees, and Social Security cheques - payments that millions of pensioners in the US rely on - would stop. Companies and charities that count on government funds would be in peril.

政府将无法再支付联邦和军事雇员的工资，而且数百万美国的退休金领取者依赖的社会保障支票也将停止发放。依靠政府资金的公司和慈善机构将处于危险之中。

If the government stops making interest payments on its debt, that would also put the country into default. The US briefly entered default in 1979, which the Treasury blamed on an accidental cheque processing issue, but an intentional default would shock the financial system where more than $500bn in US debt gets traded every day.

如果政府停止支付其债务的利息，那么这也将使国家陷入违约。美国曾在1979年短暂地进入了违约状态，但财政部指责这是由于意外的支票处理问题引起的，而有意的违约将对每天交易超过5000亿美元的金融系统造成冲击。

Moody's Analytics predicts that in a prolonged stand-off, stock prices would fall by almost a fifth and the economy would contract more than 4%, leading to the loss of more than seven million jobs.

穆迪分析公司预测，在长期的对峙中，股票价格将下降近五分之一，经济将收缩超过4%，导致超过700万个工作岗位的损失。无论哪一届政府，美国的债务都在上升

Over the long term, if investors start to see US debt as risky they will charge the US more to borrow money. And since government borrowing helps determine interest rates more widely, the impact would trickle out to the rest of the economy, making borrowing money for a home or a car more expensive for everyone.

从长期来看，如果投资者开始认为美国债务存在风险，他们将向美国收取更高的借款费用。由于政府的借款有助于更广泛地确定利率，影响将向经济的其他部分传递，使得每个人借钱购房或购车的成本更加高昂。
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There are debates about whether the government could prioritise interest payments to avoid a debt default. But honouring commitments to the owners of US debt, which include financial firms, pension funds and foreign investors, while retirees and others go unpaid is seen as a difficult one to sell politically.

对于政府是否可以优先支付利息以避免违约的争论存在。但是，在退休人员和其他人未获得支付的情况下，履行对美国债权人包括金融公司、养老基金和外国投资者的承诺被视为一个难以在政治上兜售的话题。

What does the 14th amendment have to do with it?

第十四修正案与此有何关系？

Absent a deal, some people have urged the president to bypass Congress by invoking the 14th amendment of the constitution, which states that the "validity of the public debt of the United States... shall not be questioned".

在没有协议的情况下，一些人敦促总统通过引用宪法第十四修正案来绕过国会，该修正案规定："不得质疑美国公共债务的有效性……"

That section was passed after the US Civil War to ensure that slave-holding states in the south paid war debts incurred by the north, and that the government would not be on the hook for reparations to slave-holders and others in the south.

这个条款是在美国内战后通过的，旨在确保南方奴隶制州偿还北方欠的战争债务，而政府不需要为向南方的奴隶主和其他人赔偿而承担责任。

President Joe Biden said he was considering it, but using the clause to challenge the debt limit law would almost certainly spark a legal battle - limiting its usefulness in the current crisis.

总统乔·拜登表示正在考虑使用，但是在当前危机中使用此条款挑战债务限制法几乎肯定会引发一场法律斗争，从而限制了其在当前危机中的实用性。

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has also downplayed the possibility, saying any attempt to invoke it would spark a constitutional crisis.

财政部长贾纳特·耶伦也淡化了这种可能性，称任何试图引用此条款的企图都将引发宪法危机。

What's on the table now?

现阶段的情况如何？

Last month, Republicans put forward a deal to suspend the debt limit by $1.5tn or until 31 March.

上个月，共和党提出了一项协议，暂停债务限制1.5万亿美元，或者直至3月31日。

In exchange, they would keep spending for key agencies at 2022 levels during the next financial year- and limit growth to 1% annually over the next decade - moves that could lead to $4.8tn in savings.

作为交换条件，他们将在下一个财政年度将关键机构的支出保持在2022年的水平，并将其每年的增长限制在1％，这可能导致4.8万亿美元的储蓄。

The proposal would repeal key priorities of the Biden administration, such as student loan forgiveness and tax incentives for electric vehicles.

该提议将废除拜登政府的关键优先事项，例如学生贷款宽限和电动汽车税收优惠这些政策可能会被取消。

The White House has said the deal forces "middle class and working families to bear the burden of tax cuts for the wealthiest" and has "no chance" of becoming law.

白宫表示，该协议迫使“中产阶级和工薪家庭承担更多的税收负担”，并且“没有机会”成为法律。

How can Congress reach a deal?

国会如何达成协议？

Many analysts expect a short-term extension to give Congress more time to reach a deal.

许多分析师预计将出现短期延期以便国会有更多时间达成协议。

In 2011, the last time the US was seen as at serious risk of a default, talks went down to the wire, before a compromise deal including $900bn in spending cuts over 10 years was announced hours before the deadline.

在2011年，美国最后一次面临严重违约风险时，谈判一度卡壳，直到最后期限前几个小时才宣布了一项妥协协议，包括10年9000亿美元的支出削减。

But even delays have consequences.

但是即使是延误也会产生后果。

The 2011 stand-off prompted a downgrade in the US credit rating, sent the stock market plunging - and is estimated to have cost the public at least $1.3bn in higher borrowing costs that year alone.

2011年的对峙促使美国的信用评级被下调，使股市暴跌--据估计，仅在那一年，公众就因借款成本增加而损失了至少13亿美元。

Why is the debt limit so divisive?

为什么债务上限如此具有分裂性？

The debt limit debate highlights one of the fundamental ideological differences between the two major US political parties.

债务上限辩论凸显了美国两大主要政党之间的根本意识形态差异之一。

The Republicans view government spending sceptically. To them, rising national debt is evidence of out-of-control government.

共和党人对政府支出持怀疑态度。对他们来说，国家债务的增加是政府失控的证据。

While debt-limit brinksmanship is a relatively new strategy for the party, many Republicans believe it is necessary because the nation's current course will ultimately lead to economic and social ruin.

尽管债务上限的博弈策略对于该党而言是相对较新的，但许多共和党人认为这是必要的，因为国家当前的路线最终将导致经济和社会的破坏。

Democrats, on the whole, view national government power as a force for good - a means to improve American lives and right historical wrongs.

总体而言，民主党人将国家政府权力视为一种好的力量，是改善美国人民生活和纠正历史错误的手段。

They see raising the debt limit when necessary as housekeeping necessary to maintain the operation of the government.

他们认为，在必要时提高债务上限是必要的清理工作，以维持政府的运作。在他们看来，国家债务只是为已经讨论和批准的立法计划提供资金的手段。
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The national debt, in their view, is simply a means to fund legislative programmes that have already been discussed and approved.

在他们看来，国家债务只是为已经讨论和批准的立法计划提供资金的手段。

The debate dimmed with Donald Trump, a Republican, was in the White House and Congress raised the limit three times without major debate. It re-ignited when Joe Biden became president.

在唐纳德·特朗普作为共和党人进入白宫并且国会三次提高上限而没有进行重大辩论之后，辩论声音减弱了。当乔·拜登成为总统时，辩论重新开始了。