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With Tel Aviv’s military on alx and Hezbollah threatening to destroy Israeli oil and gas facilities, the dispute is teetering on the brink

在特拉维夫军方处于警戒状态，而真主党威胁要摧毁以色列的油气设施之际，这一争端正处于临界点上。

Israel has announced its readiness for war with Lebanon, as the ongoing US-mediated maritime border demarcation talks head towards a dead end. The issue, however, is not just causing dispute between Beirut and Tel Aviv, but also becoming more prent within Israeli politics as it heads into another round of general elections.
On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid rejected Lebanese amendments to a US-proposed maritime border demarcation agreement. The previous day, Israeli officials had reportedly been briefed on the deal, which was the cause of much optimism, with an unnamed source telling Axios news that Lapid “made it clear that Israel will not compromise on its security and economic interests, even if that means that there will be no agreement soon.”
Later on Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz ordered the military establishment to prepare for an armed confrontation with Lebanon. A four-hour cabinet meeting, which was said to have been attended by major Israeli security establishment figures, was then concluded with a public announcement that the prime minister and defense minister had been granted permission to strike Lebanon without further cabinet approval.

随着正在进行中的美国主持的海上边界划定谈判陷入僵局，以色列已宣布准备与黎巴嫩发动战争。然而，这个问题不仅引发了贝鲁特和特拉维夫之间的争端，也在以色列政治中变得更加普遍，因为以色列即将进入另一轮大选。
周四，以色列总理亚伊尔·拉皮德拒绝了黎巴嫩对美国提出的海上边界划定协议的修正案。前一天，据报道，以色列官员已经对这项协议进行了简报，这引起了很多乐观情绪，一位匿名消息人士告诉Axios新闻说，拉皮德“明确表示以色列在安全和经济利益上不会妥协，即使这意味着可能不会很快达成协议。”
随后在周三，以色列国防部长本尼·甘茨下令军方做好与黎巴嫩武装对抗的准备。据说该国防部长与重要的以色列安全机构人士共同参加了为期四小时的内阁会议，会议最终以公开声明结束，宣布总理和国防部长获得了未经内阁进一步批准就对黎巴嫩发动打击的许可。

Why are Lebanon and Israel on the verge of war?
In early June, a ship owned by the gas company Energean arrived at the resource-rich Karish field in the Eastern Mediterranean to begin preparations for natural gas production for Israel. Lebanese President Michel Aoun condemned the arrival, warning Tel Aviv against taking any further “aggressive action.” The Karish field, as well as the nearby Qana field, have for years been central to on-off US-mediated negotiations between Lebanon and Israel. The two nations have still not come to any agreement on the demarcation of their maritime borders, with Beirut seeing Karish and Qana as vital to reviving its collapsing economy.

为什么黎巴嫩和以色列处于战争边缘？
今年6月初，属于能源公司Energean的一艘船抵达了东地中海富含资源的Karish油田，开始为以色列的天然气生产做准备。黎巴嫩总统米歇尔·奥恩谴责了这一到来，并警告特拉维夫不要采取任何进一步的“侵略行动”。Karish油田以及附近的Qana油田多年来一直是由美国主持的黎以谈判的核心问题。两国对海上边界的划定仍未达成任何协议，贝鲁特认为Karish和Qana油田对振兴其陷入困境的经济至关重要。

While Lebanon maintains, due to legal arguments put forth in previous negotiations, that the entire area is to be considered ‘disputed waters,’ Israel has maintained that all of the Karish field and the majority of the Qana field are within its own ‘Exclusive Economic Zone’. The Lebanese political and military party Hezbollah, which claims to have 100,000 battle-ready troops at its disposal, then weighed in on the debate, vowing to protect Lebanon’s rights to its oil and gas.
Secretary General of Lebanese Hezbollah Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah declared that if no maritime border deal were reached and Lebanon is not able to secure its rights, then military action will be taken. Nasrallah vowed that the new reality would be “If we can’t have our resources, nobody can.” Hezbollah’s red line is Israeli extraction from the Karish field before any agreement is signed – if this happens, the group has threatened to strike not only Tel Aviv’s infrastructure at site, but every other Israeli oil and gas facility in the Mediterranean.
Israel has since responded with threats of its own, which have ranged from a vow to eliminate the entire densely populated Beirut suburb that serves as Hezbollah’s stronghold, to Benny Gantz’s recent warning that the whole of Lebanon would “pay a heavy price” for any military action by Hezbollah. Now that the negotiations have reached a “make or break” point, there are significant fears that military action will be taken, either by Israel or Hezbollah.

黎巴嫩在之前的谈判中提出法律论据，主张整个地区都应被视为“争议水域”，而以色列则坚持认为整个Karish油田和大部分Qana油田都位于其自己的“专属经济区”。黎巴嫩的政治和军事党派真主党声援了这一争议，并发誓要保护黎巴嫩对石油和天然气的权益。真主党声称拥有10万名待战的部队。
黎巴嫩真主党秘书长哈桑·纳斯鲁拉宣布，如果不能达成海上边界协议，黎巴嫩不能保护其权益，那么将采取军事行动。纳斯鲁拉承诺，新的现实将是“如果我们不能拥有资源，其他人也不能”。真主党的底线是在签订任何协议之前，以色列必须停止开采Karish油田，否则该组织威胁要袭击特拉维夫的基础设施以及地中海地区的所有以色列油气设施。
以色列对此做出回应，威胁从消灭真主党据点的人口稠密的贝鲁特郊区，到本尼·甘茨最近发出的警告，表示黎巴嫩将为真主党的任何军事行动“付出沉重代价”。现在谈判已经进入了“成败关头”，人们非常担心以色列或真主党将采取军事行动。

Empty threats?
The most recent threats issued by the military and political leadership in Tel Aviv have caused panic among Israelis living near the Lebanese border. However, there is a significant possibility that the rhetoric is aimed at a domestic audience. Israel will enter into a new round of national elections in November and the demarcation of maritime borders has recently been weaponized against the current Israeli leadership, causing ministers to act in order to save face.
Israeli opposition leader and former long-time prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu began to lash out at interim-PM Yair Lapid back in September, releasing a video in which he claimed that Lapid had “totally folded in the face of Nasrallah’s threats” and that Hezbollah had forced him to delay extraction from the Karish field. Netanyahu has continued to heavily criticize his political opponents’ handling of the demarcation-line issue, with similar claims that Israel is backing down over the threats issued by Lebanese Hezbollah.

最近特拉维夫的军事和政治领导人发出威胁，引起了靠近黎巴嫩边界的以色列人的恐慌。然而，存在很大可能这些言论是针对国内观众的。以色列将在11月进行新一轮全国选举，近期海上边界的划定已被用来攻击现任以色列领导层，导致部长们不得不采取行动以保全面子。
以色列反对派领袖、前首相本雅明·内塔尼亚胡从9月开始抨击代理总理耶尔·拉皮德，发布了一段视频声称拉皮德在纳斯鲁拉的威胁面前“完全妥协”，真主党迫使他推迟了对Karish油田的开采。内塔尼亚胡继续严厉批评他的政治对手在划界问题上的处理方式，并声称以色列在黎巴嫩真主党的威胁面前退缩。

Netanyahu’s words ring true in that Lapid has clearly been forced to take the issue of demarcation of maritime borders very seriously and has conceded on positions held by Tel Aviv in the past. In addition to this, the extraction of gas from the Karish field has also been delayed, as Energean, which owns the rights to extract from the site, was initially prepared to begin operations in late September and has so far refrained from doing so. However, had Netanyahu remained as PM, he would hardly have had any other choice but to do the same.
The threats made by Hezbollah are very serious, and the group apparently has the capacity to follow through with them and destroy all of Israel’s oil and gas facilities. At this time, however, the Israeli far-right camp headed by Netanyahu is blaming the situation on Lapid’s weak governance, saying he is prepared to give away territory that belongs to Israel. For this reason, it is likely that Yair Lapid will attempt to delay extraction of gas from the Karish field in order to sideline the issue until after the elections.

内塔尼亚胡的话确实是正确的，拉皮德显然被迫非常重视海上边界划定的问题，并在过去特拉维夫持有的立场上做出了让步。此外，从Karish油田的天然气开采也因为埃纳金公司拥有开采权而被推迟，该公司最初准备在九月底开始操作，但迄今为止一直没有这么做。然而，如果内塔尼亚胡继续担任总理，他几乎别无选择，只能做出同样的决定。
真主党发出的威胁非常严重，该组织显然有能力付诸行动，摧毁以色列所有的油气设施。然而，目前以色列由内塔尼亚胡领导的极右派阵营将责任归咎于拉皮德的软弱统治，声称他准备放弃属于以色列的领土。因此，拉皮德很可能试图推迟从Karish油田开采天然气的计划，以便将这个问题放到选举之后再解决。

The necessity of a deal for Lebanon
Lebanon sees the Karish and Qana issue as integral to its survival. Some UN experts put the percentage of Lebanese living in poverty at around 80%, while the country endures round-the-clock blackouts, a rising crime rate, and civil instability. Some people have even been spotted searching for food in garbage bins, as well as fighting over loaves of bread at bakeries. Getting its hands on a possible multi-billion-dollar oil and gas field is a matter of life or death for Beirut – but not for Tel Aviv, which enjoys far more economic stability.
The US mediator in the Lebanon-Israel talks, Amos Hochstein, gave an interview to the American owned al-Hurra TV in June, laughing when asked about the prospect of trading the Karish field for Qana. Months later, after Hezbollah upped its threats and the group’s leader, Nasrallah, stated that the Lebanese people would not be laughed at, this issue has become a rather grave one. The US, which has a clear pro-Israeli bias, is now being forced to take the talks much more seriously.
Earlier this year, as the European unx looked for alternative gas suppliers, a deal was inked between Tel Aviv and Brussels, under which Israel would send gas through pipelines to Europe via Egypt. This has encouraged Tel Aviv to announce its plans to double its gas output, and the Karish field is key to achieving this.

黎巴嫩达成协议的必要性
黎巴嫩认为Karish和Qana问题对其生存至关重要。一些联合国专家将黎巴嫩的贫困人口比例约定为80%，同时该国还面临全天候停电、犯罪率上升和内部不稳定等问题。有人甚至被发现在垃圾箱中寻找食物，以及在面包店争夺面包。对贝鲁特来说，获得一个可能价值数十亿美元的油气田是生死攸关的问题，而对经济更加稳定的特拉维夫来说，则没有这样的压力。
美国担任黎巴嫩和以色列谈判的调解人阿莫斯·霍克斯坦在6月接受美国拥有的阿尔胡拉电视台采访时，当被问及以Karish油田换取Qana的前景时，他笑了起来。几个月后，真主党加大了威胁，该组织的领导人纳斯鲁拉声称黎巴嫩人民不会被嘲笑，这个问题变得相当严重。由于美国对以色列持明显偏袒态度，现在不得不被迫更加认真地对待这些谈判。
今年早些时候，当欧洲联盟寻找替代的天然气供应商时，特拉维夫和布鲁塞尔之间达成了一项协议，根据该协议，以色列将通过埃及向欧洲输送天然气。这促使特拉维夫宣布计划将天然气产量翻倍，而Karish油田是实现这一目标的关键。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

The Qana field, however, has not yet been explored and will take time to develop. Despite this, one of the key reasons for Israel’s rejection of the Lebanese proposal is that Beirut refuses to pay Tel Aviv royalties for the gas it would extract from the Qana field should it be handed to Lebanon. Beirut cannot commit itself to such an agreement, because this would mean normalizing ties with the Tel Aviv regime, which still occupies Shebaa farms – an area that Lebanon claims as its rightful territory.
Whether war happens will now boil down to whether bickering between Israeli political parties and individual officials will cause Tel Aviv to adopt a belligerent approach and push forward with gas production in the disputed fields before an agreement is reached. If it does, there can be little doubt that Hezbollah will open fire if its red line is crossed. Israel’s stake in the matter is additional energy revenues, while for Lebanon it is potentially a matter of life or death. Neither side wants war, but one has much to gain and the other has everything to lose.

然而，Qana油田尚未开发，需要时间来进行开发。尽管如此，以色列拒绝黎巴嫩提议的一个关键原因是贝鲁特拒绝向特拉维夫支付从Qana油田提取的天然气的特许权使用费，如果该油田移交给黎巴嫩的话。贝鲁特不能承诺这样的协议，因为这将意味着与特拉维夫政权正常化关系，而特拉维夫仍然占领着谢巴农场，这一地区黎巴嫩声称为其合法领土。
现在，是否发生战争将取决于以色列政党和个别官员之间的争吵是否会导致特拉维夫采取好战态度，在达成协议之前推进有争议的油田的天然气生产。如果这样做，毫无疑问，真主党将在其红线被跨越时开火。以色列在这个问题上所关心的是额外的能源收入，而对于黎巴嫩来说，这可能关乎生死。双方都不希望发生战争，但其中一方有很多可获得的利益，而另一方则面临失去一切的风险。