欧洲对中国电动汽车调查可能会导致附带损害德国汽车制造商最容易受到的中国的报复，而法国则更为宽松

Mirror, mirror on the wall, who has the greatest green industrial policy of them all?

镜子啊，镜子，告诉我，谁拥有最伟大的绿色产业政策？

The opening of an EU investigation into imports of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) has exposed a fundamental European rift over the right course for Europe's industrial strategy. Is Gallic autonomie stratégique the right way to go? Or the Teutonic reflex to maximize trade surpluses über alles?

欧盟对进口自中国的电动车展开调查，揭示了欧洲在产业战略上的根本分歧。是选择法国的战略自主？还是德国的贸易顺差？

And it has revealed a depressing truth for Europe Inc: Beijing has just done it better, faster.

而这也揭示了一个令欧洲公司们沮丧的事实：北京的做法更好。

In firing up its trade defense machinery, Europe is being forced to gaze back at its own clean car game and reflect on the fact that the prime victim of its anti-subsidy probe could end up being Germany's export-led economy — and its carmakers that are heavily invested in, and exposed to, China.

欧洲在启动贸易保护机制时，被迫回顾自己的清洁汽车游戏，并反思一个事实：其反补贴调查的主要受害者最终会是德国的出口型经济，以及那些在中国投资并面临风险的汽车制造商们。

“It should be clear that the French manufacturers [who backed the trade measures] are not only targeting Beijing, but also their German competitors,” said one senior lobbyist from a major German brand on condition of anonymity.

一位来自德国一家大品牌的高级游说人士匿名表示：“法国制造商（支持贸易措施）的目标不仅仅针对北京，还针对来自的德国竞争对手。”

The Commission is set to formally brief attachés on the investigation this Wednesday, an EU diplomat said.

一位欧盟外交官表示，委员会将于本周三正式向各国代表提供调查的情况。

Less than a week after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the investigation, efforts to curb China’s EV assault are rubbing salt into open wounds over the bloc’s ambitions to mitigate climate change at speed: The EU plans to ban the sale of new combustion engine cars from 2035, hence the need to start pushing clean cars on motorists now.

在欧洲委员会主席冯德莱恩宣布调查不到一周之后，遏制中国电动车发展的势头的努力，进一步反应了欧盟应对气候变化的口是心非：欧盟计划从2035年起禁止销售新的内燃机汽车，因此需要立即向汽车消费者推广清洁的汽车。

To make that work, automakers have long demanded a long-term strategic plan to stoke innovation and leverage billions of euros of public cash to build out everything from battery plants employing thousands to streetside charging infrastructure.

为了让这一计划成功，汽车制造商长期以来，制定了一项长期战略计划，以推动创新，并利用数十亿欧元的公共资金来建设从数千名员工的电池工厂，街边充电基础设施的一切。

The problem for Europe is that Beijing got there first.

欧洲的问题在于北京已经抢占了先机。

Back in 2009, China set out its plans to spend billions of yuan building itself into the world’s battery superpower. Officially, the national consumer subsidy program expired at the close of 2022 for those buying EVs, but motorists are still exempt from paying purchase tax and Beijing this summer unveiled 520 billion yuan (€68 billion) in new tax breaks running to 2027.

早在2009年，中国就制定了耗资数十亿人民币，将自己建设成世界电池超级大国的计划。虽然官方上，国家的消费者补贴计划在2022年结束，但购买电动汽车的车主仍然免征购车税。今年夏天，北京还宣布到2027年将提供5200亿元人民币（680亿欧元）的新税收优惠政策。

All that early work means that today — at least when it comes to current lithium-ion battery technology — China holds a lead that could be unassailable without erecting substantial trade barriers, as upstart Chinese brands push to conquer the rest of the world from their heavily subsidized local market.

所有这些早期的工作意味着，至少就目前的锂离子电池技术而言，中国在没有构建大规模贸易壁垒的情况下，已经取得了无法逾越的领先地位，因为新兴的中国品牌正努力从得到，大量补贴的本土市场尝试去征服世界其他地区。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

It isn't just China either.

不仅仅是中国。

Last year's U.S. Inflation Reduction Act doubled down on that subsidy race, splurging $369 billion to boost the EV industry, including $7,500 in premiums for motorists and separate help to localize battery production.

去年的《美国通货膨胀削减法案》加大了补贴竞争，拨款3690亿美元来推动电动汽车行业地发展，包括为车主提供7500美元的奖励，并提供支持，来实现生产本土的电池。

In comparison, Europe has a patchwork of consumer-facing subsidy programs, many of which are being phased out, and has issued one-off dollops of state aid for battery plants rather than pumping in sustained financing.

相比之下，欧洲的消费者补贴计划是一团乱麻，其中许多计划正在逐步取消，并且只提供了一次性的国家补贴来建设电池工厂，而没有提供持续的资金支持。

Put another way, while government and consumer spending on electric cars around the world topped $400 billion in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency, it is not spread evenly. And the EU isn't keeping pace.

另一方面，根据国际能源机构的数据，全球政府和消费者在2022年对电动汽车的支出超过了4000亿美元，但这一数字分布并不均衡。欧盟也没有跟上步伐。

“Since the IRA, the Commission has understood that there is a very big problem,” said William Todts who runs green group Transport & Environment. "They have failed to secure funding at an EU level so we can't replicate the IRA, instead they relaxed state aid rules for Germany and France."

“自IRA以来，委员会就意识到存在一个非常大的问题，”绿色组织“运输与环境”的威廉·托茨表示。“他们未能在欧盟层面获得资金，因此我们无法复制IRA，相反，他们放宽了对德国和法国的国家援助。”(IRA是指欧盟的“工业复兴与发展计划”。该计划旨在帮助欧盟成员国转型和调整其工业援助，以适应经济变化和全球竞争。)

Civil war

内战

Officials in both Brussels and Paris insist it was von der Leyen’s call to open the investigation, but the move aligns her Commission with France’s support for local production, under the umbrella concept of strategic autonomy Paris set out in 1994 in a policy paper on defense.

布鲁塞尔和巴黎的官员坚称，冯德莱恩决定开展调查，她此举与法国的本土生产立场保持一致，这是巴黎在1994年的国防政策文件中提出的战略自主概念是一致的。

That's been expanded in recent years to cover everything from rockets to cars: POLITICO first reported in June that Paris was lobbying Brussels to launch the automotive probe under significant pressure from local industry captains.

近年来，调查范围不断扩大，从火箭到汽车，无所不包，《政治家》杂志在6月份首次报道，巴黎正在游说布鲁塞尔，顶着当地产业巨头的压力发起对汽车行业的调查。

But France insists it isn't out to hamstring its German rivals.

但法国坚称，他们并不是想削弱德国，搞不正当竞争。

“Contrary to rumors, we didn't push for this case,” France’s Trade Minister Olivier Becht told POLITICO during a lunch in Paris the day after von der Leyen's probe was announced.

法国贸易部长奥利维尔·贝希特在冯德莱恩宣布调查结果的第二天，在巴黎的一次午餐会上告诉《政治家》“与谣言相反，我们并没有推动这个案件”。

“We didn't besiege the European Commission headquarters and say: 'We want this investigation,'" said Becht, but then he added that “there's not much point in having trade defense tools just to keep them in a box.”

贝希特说：“我们没有包围欧洲委员会总部，说：‘我们要进行这项调查。’”但他随后补充说，“拥有贸易保护工具，但是将其束之高阁就没有多大意义了。”

Be that as it may, the prospect of a boomerang effect in which potential retaliation by China hits Germany hardest can't be discounted, despite Becht stressing that “this is certainly not something we are doing against Germany.”

尽管如此，中国可能对德国实施报复仍然不能忽视，尽管贝希特强调，“这绝对不是我们针对德国的行动。”
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Over the last decade, Berlin has sought a more engaged path in its industrial relations with China. As recently as 2018 then-Chancellor Angela Merkel made cars the centerpiece of a bilateral summit with Chinese leaders in an old aircraft hangar in central Berlin. For a long time, “EU-China relations was all about German cars,” an EU diplomat said.

在过去的十年里，柏林一直在寻求与中国在工业关系上更加亲密的合作。就在2018年，时任总理安格拉·默克尔与中国在柏林市中心的一座旧飞机库举行的双边峰会上，汽车成为了焦点。很长一段时间，“中欧关系都是围绕德国汽车展开的，”一位欧盟外交官说。

During that summit, attended by the bosses of Volkswagen, Daimler (now Mercedes-Benz) and BMW, Merkel announced that German carmakers would be allowed to hold majority stakes in key joint ventures inside China. The push also featured prominently in Merkel’s attempt to get the EU to conclude an investment agreement with China.

在那次峰会上，大众、戴姆勒（现为奔驰）和宝马的老板们都宣布，德国汽车制造商将被允许在中国内部的关键合资企业中持有多数股权。在默克尔试图让欧盟与中国签订投资协议的过程中，这一举措也占据了重要位置。

The effort had an impact. According to Chinese statistics, French brands account for a mere 0.4 percent of the Chinese EV market, compared to Germany’s 17 percent — with many of those vehicles made locally.

这一努力产生了影响。根据中国的统计数据，法国品牌在中国电动汽车市场仅占0.4％，而德国品牌占17％，其中许多车辆是在中国本土生产的。

Over the last few years, China's CATL, by far the world’s biggest battery maker, has built a massive cell plant in central Germany to supply local carmakers, further entrenching the business relationship.

中国最大的电池制造商之一，宁德时代，近年来在德国中部建立了一个庞大的电池工厂，以供应当地的汽车制造商，进一步巩固了两国之间的商业关系。

German automotive bosses say the risk of retaliation and a straining of relations with Beijing won't fundamentally change the central problem facing Europe's own EV industry.

德国汽车行业的领导人表示，报复的风险和与北京的紧张关系，不会从根本上改变欧洲电动汽车行业面临的核心问题。

"One thing is clear: an anti-subsidy investigation alone does not help solve existing challenges with regards to the competitiveness of Europe," said the Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), the main lobby for Germany's car sector, citing the Continent's high energy costs, taxes and excessive bureaucracy as drags.

德国汽车工业协会表示：“有一点是清楚的：仅仅进行反补贴调查不能解决欧洲竞争力方面存在的挑战。”该协会是德国汽车行业的主要游说组织，指出欧洲的高能源成本、税收和繁文缛节是制约发展的因素。

French pragmatism?
French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire has often taken a harsh line on China, accusing Beijing of not playing by the global trade rulebook and calling on Brussels to take action.

法国的务实态度？
法国经济部长布鲁诺·勒梅尔经常对中国采取强硬立场，指责中国不按照全球贸易规则行事，并呼吁布鲁塞尔采取行动。

While Germans worry about Chinese retaliation against their car companies, the French businesses that have made inroads in China, in sectors like aerospace and nuclear power, are less exposed to potential reprisal because China is keen to acquire French know-how.

尽管德国担心中国报复其汽车公司，但在中国市场上取得进展的法国企业，在航空航天和核能等领域，面临的潜在报复较少，因为中国渴望获取法国的专有技术。

And France has already declared war on Chinese EVs, with President Emmanuel Macron announcing that existing consumer bonuses for the purchase of e-cars will be retargeted at Europe-made vehicles from next year. France will publish the new eligibility criteria on Tuesday and the list of eligible vehicles in December. “It will promote cars produced in a way that is respectful of the environment so indirectly European cars,” a French official said.

法国已经对中国电动汽车宣战，法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙宣布，从明年开始，现有的购买电动汽车的消费者奖励将调整只为欧洲制造的提供。法国将于周二公布新的资格标准，并于12月公布符合资格的车辆名单。一位法国官员表示：“它将促进那些以环境友好方式生产的汽车，间接地说就是欧洲汽车。”

From a legal point of view, Brussels doesn’t see its move as provocative toward China.

从法律角度来看，布鲁塞尔不认为其行动对中国具有挑衅性。

Launching an anti-subsidy investigation for trade defense purposes is in line with global trade rules, Commission officials note. So, if China challenges any future tariffs at the World Trade Organization, the EU is convinced it can legally stand its ground.

欧盟委员会官员指出，启动反补贴调查以维护贸易保护目的，是符合全球贸易规则的。因此，如果中国在世界贸易组织上对任何未来的关税提出质疑，欧盟确信它可以在法律上坚持立场。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

With the investigation now in play, but likely to run to the next political mandate following the European Parliament election next year, the political risks — and business stakes — are high.

随着调查的进行，很可能要延至明年的欧洲议会选举后，相关政治风险和商业风险都很高。

"If China has shown one thing, it’s that electric vehicles are the future," said Todts from T&E. "Either you compete in that sector or you’re dead."

“如果中国证明了什么件事，那就是电动汽车是未来，”来自T&E的托茨表示。“要么你在这个领域竞争，要么就死路一条。”