QA问答：目前，美元是否面临失去世界主要储备货币地位的风险？KB回复
正文翻译
Profile photo for Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam
Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam
Lawyer14h
What you need to realize is that, the Dollar being a primary reserve currency has been an issue that many countries have secretly not been very comfortable with
It was one of the not so public reasons for the existence of the EURO
Many Nations especially the Middle East Nations felt it very wrong to sell their oil and keep all the money earned from those sales in Accounts in the United States
However back then the US was too powerful
Saddam Hussain tried and ended up being murdered after a bogus invasion
你需要意识到的是，美元作为主要储备货币一直是许多国家私下里不太满意的一个问题
这是欧元存在的不那么公开的原因之一
许多国家，特别是中东国家，认为出售石油并将所有从这些销售中赚取的钱存入美国的账户是非常错误的
然而当时的美国太强大了
萨达姆·侯赛因在一次虚假入侵后尝试并最终被谋杀
Profile photo for Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam
Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam
Lawyer14h
What you need to realize is that, the Dollar being a primary reserve currency has been an issue that many countries have secretly not been very comfortable with
It was one of the not so public reasons for the existence of the EURO
Many Nations especially the Middle East Nations felt it very wrong to sell their oil and keep all the money earned from those sales in Accounts in the United States
However back then the US was too powerful
Saddam Hussain tried and ended up being murdered after a bogus invasion
你需要意识到的是，美元作为主要储备货币一直是许多国家私下里不太满意的一个问题
这是欧元存在的不那么公开的原因之一
许多国家，特别是中东国家，认为出售石油并将所有从这些销售中赚取的钱存入美国的账户是非常错误的
然而当时的美国太强大了
萨达姆·侯赛因在一次虚假入侵后尝试并最终被谋杀
Gadaffi tried and was killed in a color revolution sponsored by the United States
The Saudis, the Qataris, the Iranians all felt like being under a Colonial Dictator who decided and controlled every aspect of their life using the dollar
The US was making up rules and using the power of sanctions and its military to destroy anyone who did not toe the line
Thus the fact that the Dollar was the Primary reserve currency was not something everyone was happy with even from the mid 1990s
The UK had decided to tolerate this because they were too badly broken after World War II and needed the US to survive as a developed nation
Every 3 out 4 Dollars they needed came from US Banks & US Federal Loans.
Europe too
Russia due to it's incompetent leadership under Geriatrics like Brezhnev, Andropov and Gromyko and Chernenko plus Idiots like Gorbachev also needed US Dollars to rescue it's economy from collapse and hyperinflation
China was happy earning dollars and building its reserves and growing 14% a year
In short the US had forced these Nations into situations where the US and it's Dollars were indispensable to them
卡扎菲尝试并在美国发起的颜色革命中被杀
沙特人、卡塔尔人、伊朗人都感觉自己像是在一个殖民独裁者的统治下，他用美元来决定和控制他们生活的方方面面。
美国正在制定规则，并利用制裁和军队的力量消灭任何不守规矩的人
因此，即使从20世纪90年代中期开始，美元作为主要储备货币的事实也不是每个人都满意的
英国决定容忍这一点，因为他们在二战后已经崩溃了，需要美国作为一个发达国家生存下去
他们所需的每4美元中就有3美元来自美国银行和银行，美联储。
俄罗斯由于勃列日涅夫、安德罗波夫、葛罗米科、契尔年科等老年医学家以及戈尔巴乔夫等白痴领导下的无能领导，也需要美元来拯救其经济免于崩溃和恶性通货膨胀
中国很高兴赚取美元并建立外汇储备，并且每年增长14%
简而言之，美国迫使这些国家陷入了美国及其美元对它们不可或缺的境地
The Saudis, the Qataris, the Iranians all felt like being under a Colonial Dictator who decided and controlled every aspect of their life using the dollar
The US was making up rules and using the power of sanctions and its military to destroy anyone who did not toe the line
Thus the fact that the Dollar was the Primary reserve currency was not something everyone was happy with even from the mid 1990s
The UK had decided to tolerate this because they were too badly broken after World War II and needed the US to survive as a developed nation
Every 3 out 4 Dollars they needed came from US Banks & US Federal Loans.
Europe too
Russia due to it's incompetent leadership under Geriatrics like Brezhnev, Andropov and Gromyko and Chernenko plus Idiots like Gorbachev also needed US Dollars to rescue it's economy from collapse and hyperinflation
China was happy earning dollars and building its reserves and growing 14% a year
In short the US had forced these Nations into situations where the US and it's Dollars were indispensable to them
卡扎菲尝试并在美国发起的颜色革命中被杀
沙特人、卡塔尔人、伊朗人都感觉自己像是在一个殖民独裁者的统治下，他用美元来决定和控制他们生活的方方面面。
美国正在制定规则，并利用制裁和军队的力量消灭任何不守规矩的人
因此，即使从20世纪90年代中期开始，美元作为主要储备货币的事实也不是每个人都满意的
英国决定容忍这一点，因为他们在二战后已经崩溃了，需要美国作为一个发达国家生存下去
他们所需的每4美元中就有3美元来自美国银行和银行，美联储。
俄罗斯由于勃列日涅夫、安德罗波夫、葛罗米科、契尔年科等老年医学家以及戈尔巴乔夫等白痴领导下的无能领导，也需要美元来拯救其经济免于崩溃和恶性通货膨胀
中国很高兴赚取美元并建立外汇储备，并且每年增长14%
简而言之，美国迫使这些国家陷入了美国及其美元对它们不可或缺的境地
Today things stand different
The US is much weaker than it was
The same Nation that could probably once control a conflict from DC alone, is unable to rein in its most dependent lackey ally - ISRAEL
It is riddled with Debt
It hassanctioned and played unfair so many times that IT'S CREDIBILITY IS ZERO
So every Nation that once tolerated the US Dollar as primary reserve, is starting to trade in other currencies including the Yuan, the Ruble and their own Local Currencies
Energy & Food is now being sold in Yuan and priced in Yuan
Qatar sells LNG to China pricing it in Yuan as do Saudi Arabia and Russia
Brazil sells Soybeans and Ore priced in Yuan to China
The US may still be very powerful against any attack on the US itself but their offensive warfare capabilities have significantly become weaker and weaker.
The Military Leaders are weak
The Politicians are imbeciles - either Neocons or Corrupt Ideologues or Neo Liberals
Hence DE DOLLARIZATION HAS BEGUN and will continue
今天情况有所不同
美国比以前弱多了
曾经可能仅靠华盛顿就能控制冲突的国家，却无法控制其最依赖的走狗盟友——以色列
它充满了债务
它已经多次制裁和不公平行事，其可信度为零
因此，每个曾经容忍美元作为主要储备的国家都开始以其他货币进行交易，包括人民币、卢布和本国货币
能源与能源食品现在以人民币出售并以人民币定价
卡塔尔向中国出售液化天然气，并以人民币计价，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯也是如此
巴西以人民币计价向中国出售大豆和矿石
美国对于任何针对美国自身的攻击可能仍然非常强大，但其进攻性战争能力已明显变得越来越弱。
军事领导人软弱
政客们都是低能者——要么是新保守派，要么是腐败的理论家，要么是新自由主义者
因此，去美元化已经开始并将持续下去
The US is much weaker than it was
The same Nation that could probably once control a conflict from DC alone, is unable to rein in its most dependent lackey ally - ISRAEL
It is riddled with Debt
It hassanctioned and played unfair so many times that IT'S CREDIBILITY IS ZERO
So every Nation that once tolerated the US Dollar as primary reserve, is starting to trade in other currencies including the Yuan, the Ruble and their own Local Currencies
Energy & Food is now being sold in Yuan and priced in Yuan
Qatar sells LNG to China pricing it in Yuan as do Saudi Arabia and Russia
Brazil sells Soybeans and Ore priced in Yuan to China
The US may still be very powerful against any attack on the US itself but their offensive warfare capabilities have significantly become weaker and weaker.
The Military Leaders are weak
The Politicians are imbeciles - either Neocons or Corrupt Ideologues or Neo Liberals
Hence DE DOLLARIZATION HAS BEGUN and will continue
今天情况有所不同
美国比以前弱多了
曾经可能仅靠华盛顿就能控制冲突的国家，却无法控制其最依赖的走狗盟友——以色列
它充满了债务
它已经多次制裁和不公平行事，其可信度为零
因此，每个曾经容忍美元作为主要储备的国家都开始以其他货币进行交易，包括人民币、卢布和本国货币
能源与能源食品现在以人民币出售并以人民币定价
卡塔尔向中国出售液化天然气，并以人民币计价，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯也是如此
巴西以人民币计价向中国出售大豆和矿石
美国对于任何针对美国自身的攻击可能仍然非常强大，但其进攻性战争能力已明显变得越来越弱。
军事领导人软弱
政客们都是低能者——要么是新保守派，要么是腐败的理论家，要么是新自由主义者
因此，去美元化已经开始并将持续下去
One currency as primary reserve and One Nation as a Hegemon was always wrong
Maybe it was unavoidable from 1945 to maybe 1975 when the world was still recovering from the World War and Anti communist Wars
However it should have started focusing on a Multipolar World and a Variant currency reserve from at least 1975
Yet the US kept it's hold as a Hegemon and it's currency as primary through:-
Removing the Gold Standard and adopting the Bretton Woods system forcing Europe to accept both
Adopted the Plaza Accords in 1985 and finished Japan as a potential rival
Invaded Iraq and sponsored color revolution in Libya to ensure no other player even thought of going against the Dollar
以一种货币作为主要储备并以一国作为霸主总是错误的
也许从1945年到1975年是不可避免的，当时世界仍在从世界大战和反共战争中恢复过来
然而，至少从1975年起，大家就应该开始关注多极世界和不同的货币储备
然而，美国通过以下方式保持其霸权地位和货币地位：-
取消金本位制并采用布雷顿森林体系迫使欧洲接受
1985年通过广场协议，使日本完全受控
入侵伊拉克并赞助利比亚颜色革命，以确保没有其他参与者想到反对美元
Maybe it was unavoidable from 1945 to maybe 1975 when the world was still recovering from the World War and Anti communist Wars
However it should have started focusing on a Multipolar World and a Variant currency reserve from at least 1975
Yet the US kept it's hold as a Hegemon and it's currency as primary through:-
Removing the Gold Standard and adopting the Bretton Woods system forcing Europe to accept both
Adopted the Plaza Accords in 1985 and finished Japan as a potential rival
Invaded Iraq and sponsored color revolution in Libya to ensure no other player even thought of going against the Dollar
以一种货币作为主要储备并以一国作为霸主总是错误的
也许从1945年到1975年是不可避免的，当时世界仍在从世界大战和反共战争中恢复过来
然而，至少从1975年起，大家就应该开始关注多极世界和不同的货币储备
然而，美国通过以下方式保持其霸权地位和货币地位：-
取消金本位制并采用布雷顿森林体系迫使欧洲接受
1985年通过广场协议，使日本完全受控
入侵伊拉克并赞助利比亚颜色革命，以确保没有其他参与者想到反对美元
Sadly today the US cannot continue this
Putin, xi are TOO STRONG
The BRI has ensured that most of the Global South no longer kowtows to the US blindly but rather would do what's best for them, bes example being Vietnam
Also the US thanks to 30 years of bullying and intimidating has now a foreign Service and diplomatic service that DOESN'T HAVE A CLUE WHAT IT MEANS TO NEGOTIATE OR BARGAIN.
The crop of idiot diplomats know only to threaten and bully
遗憾的是，今天美国无法继续这样做
俄罗斯、中国太强大了
“一带一路”确保了大多数南方国家不再盲目向美国卑躬屈膝，而是会做对他们最有利的事情，最好的例子就是越南
此外，由于30年的欺凌和恐吓，美国现在的外交部门和外交部门根本不知道谈判或讨价还价意味着什么。
这群白痴外交官只知道威胁和欺凌
Putin, xi are TOO STRONG
The BRI has ensured that most of the Global South no longer kowtows to the US blindly but rather would do what's best for them, bes example being Vietnam
Also the US thanks to 30 years of bullying and intimidating has now a foreign Service and diplomatic service that DOESN'T HAVE A CLUE WHAT IT MEANS TO NEGOTIATE OR BARGAIN.
The crop of idiot diplomats know only to threaten and bully
遗憾的是，今天美国无法继续这样做
俄罗斯、中国太强大了
“一带一路”确保了大多数南方国家不再盲目向美国卑躬屈膝，而是会做对他们最有利的事情，最好的例子就是越南
此外，由于30年的欺凌和恐吓，美国现在的外交部门和外交部门根本不知道谈判或讨价还价意味着什么。
这群白痴外交官只知道威胁和欺凌
Like Daleep Singh, the numbskull who threatened India with Sanctions when he could have offered a nice tech transfer deal plus a nice $ 100 Billion swap facility in Mumbai and maybe swayed India on his side
Or this brainless fool who could have easily offered China, a full tariff waiver for 3 years, a written guarantee on their US Investments plus a mutual guarantee on Taiwan (You don't attack Taiwan and we don't supply weapons)
China may have agreed to move away from Putin
If that was the case Putin would have lost by June 2022 and the West would have won
就像戴利普·辛格（Daleep Singh）一样，这个傻瓜用制裁来威胁印度，而他本可以提供一份不错的技术转让协议，再加上孟买价值1000亿美元的基础设施，也许会让印度站在他一边
或者这个无脑的傻瓜可以轻易地向中国提供三年的全额关税豁免，对美国投资的书面保证以及对台湾的相互保证（你不攻击台湾，我们不提供武器） ）
中国可能已经同意远离普京
如果是这样的话，到2022年6月普京就会失败，而西方就会获胜
Or this brainless fool who could have easily offered China, a full tariff waiver for 3 years, a written guarantee on their US Investments plus a mutual guarantee on Taiwan (You don't attack Taiwan and we don't supply weapons)
China may have agreed to move away from Putin
If that was the case Putin would have lost by June 2022 and the West would have won
就像戴利普·辛格（Daleep Singh）一样，这个傻瓜用制裁来威胁印度，而他本可以提供一份不错的技术转让协议，再加上孟买价值1000亿美元的基础设施，也许会让印度站在他一边
或者这个无脑的傻瓜可以轻易地向中国提供三年的全额关税豁免，对美国投资的书面保证以及对台湾的相互保证（你不攻击台湾，我们不提供武器） ）
中国可能已经同意远离普京
如果是这样的话，到2022年6月普京就会失败，而西方就会获胜
So Yes the US Dollar is going to lose its Primary Reserve Status
By 2030 I believe the USD will have a reserve of around 46%, the Yuan at 13%, Euro at 10%, Yen at 5%, the BRICS Settlement CBDC at 5% and Local Currencies at 21%
所以是的，美元将失去其主要储备地位
到2030年，我相信美元储备将达到46%左右，人民币为13%，欧元为10%，日元为5%，金砖国家结算CBDC为5%，本币为21%
By 2030 I believe the USD will have a reserve of around 46%, the Yuan at 13%, Euro at 10%, Yen at 5%, the BRICS Settlement CBDC at 5% and Local Currencies at 21%
所以是的，美元将失去其主要储备地位
到2030年，我相信美元储备将达到46%左右，人民币为13%，欧元为10%，日元为5%，金砖国家结算CBDC为5%，本币为21%
评论翻译
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Sumanth
· 13h
The Washington administration is WILDLY out of step with the common American people. Poll after poll indicates that the regular American is tired of foreign conflicts and sanctions and wants the government to focus on the US only. Making sure the people have affordable healthcare, education and housing while these morons go off to support conflict in some foreign country which most Americans can’t even locate on a map.
华盛顿政府与美国普通民众严重脱节。一项又一项民意调查显示，普通美国人厌倦了外国冲突和制裁，希望政府只关注美国。确保人们有负担得起的医疗、教育和住房，而这些白痴却去支持某些大多数美国人甚至无法在地图上找到的外国的冲突。
Sumanth
· 13h
The Washington administration is WILDLY out of step with the common American people. Poll after poll indicates that the regular American is tired of foreign conflicts and sanctions and wants the government to focus on the US only. Making sure the people have affordable healthcare, education and housing while these morons go off to support conflict in some foreign country which most Americans can’t even locate on a map.
华盛顿政府与美国普通民众严重脱节。一项又一项民意调查显示，普通美国人厌倦了外国冲突和制裁，希望政府只关注美国。确保人们有负担得起的医疗、教育和住房，而这些白痴却去支持某些大多数美国人甚至无法在地图上找到的外国的冲突。
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Hu Shi xiong
· 13h
Polls hadn't decided government action within living memory .
在人们的记忆中，民意调查并未决定政府的行动。
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Hu Shi xiong
· 13h
Polls hadn't decided government action within living memory .
在人们的记忆中，民意调查并未决定政府的行动。
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Jeff Duda
· 7h
That is true but please know that the US people are a lot better than the US government. Probably not going to fix the problem as the US has a huge military and control of the media to use against its own people as well as the rest of the world. But at least know the people of the US do not support or believe in its own government. Apologies to the rest of the world from the people of the US. Result the Dollar will collapse as it is not used for the betterment of the world and the leader of the USA (still the most powerful country in the world although falling fast) The politicians are also not working for the betterment of the world.
这是事实，但请知道，美国人民比美国政府要好得多。可能不会解决这个问题，因为美国拥有庞大的军队和对媒体的控制力量，可以用来对付自己的人民以及世界其他国家。但至少知道美国人民不支持或不相信自己的政府。美国人民向世界其他地区道歉。结果美元将会崩溃，因为它没有被用来改善世界，而美国的领导人（尽管衰落很快，但仍然是世界上最强大的国家）政客们也没有为改善世界而努力。
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Jeff Duda
· 7h
That is true but please know that the US people are a lot better than the US government. Probably not going to fix the problem as the US has a huge military and control of the media to use against its own people as well as the rest of the world. But at least know the people of the US do not support or believe in its own government. Apologies to the rest of the world from the people of the US. Result the Dollar will collapse as it is not used for the betterment of the world and the leader of the USA (still the most powerful country in the world although falling fast) The politicians are also not working for the betterment of the world.
这是事实，但请知道，美国人民比美国政府要好得多。可能不会解决这个问题，因为美国拥有庞大的军队和对媒体的控制力量，可以用来对付自己的人民以及世界其他国家。但至少知道美国人民不支持或不相信自己的政府。美国人民向世界其他地区道歉。结果美元将会崩溃，因为它没有被用来改善世界，而美国的领导人（尽管衰落很快，但仍然是世界上最强大的国家）政客们也没有为改善世界而努力。
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Hoàng Phan
· 12h
The euro itself is often thought of as the first example of exit — a planned exit from the dollar system. Because by creating the euro, the European countries essentially ejected the dollar from their mutual transactions. So this was the beginning of European monetary integration, largely by combining the surplus run by the German economy, with the rest of the Eurozone that was running a deficit. And so in that sense, they were trying to balance and stabilize their own exchange rates.
HOWEVER,
The way in which the euro was created was basically the satellite currency of the United States, because it was designed by Robert Mondell at the University of Chicago for what he was given the annual Nobel Prize for the worst economic advice that they give annually.
And he created the euro in a very right-wing “Chicago School” way, in a way that blocked the Eurozone from actually using the euro and the central bank to actually finance Keynesian-style budget deficits.
European countries were forbidden to run a budget deficit of more than three percent of their GDP, which is a very small amount. And what that did was prevent the euro from creating enough money, enough currency, enough credit, to really become a rival for the dollar.
It was sort of crippled from the very beginning by the rules that made sure the government would not be able to create enough credit to enable European recovery to take place without very very heavy borrowing from the European banks and from the American banks.
So the euro was created in a way to minimize the role of government, maximize the role of banks, and essentially that’s what made it a right-wing Chicago School development from the very beginning, and we’ve now seen how it’s unfolded.
欧元本身通常被认为是退出的第一个例子——计划退出美元体系。因为通过创造欧元，欧洲国家实质上将美元排除在相互交易之外。因此，这是欧洲货币一体化的开始，主要是将德国经济的盈余与欧元区其他国家的赤字结合起来。因此从这个意义上说，他们正在努力平衡和稳定自己的汇率。
然而，
欧元的基本上是美国的卫星货币，因为它是由芝加哥大学的罗伯特·蒙德尔设计的，他因每年提出的最糟糕的经济建议而获得了诺贝尔奖。
他以一种非常右翼的“芝加哥学派”方式创造了欧元，这种方式阻止了欧元区实际使用欧元和央行来为凯恩斯主义式的预算赤字融资。
这使得欧洲国家的预算赤字不得超过国内生产总值的百分之三，这是一个非常小的数字。这样做的结果是阻止欧元创造足够的货币、足够的信贷，从而真正成为美元的竞争对手。
它从一开始就受到了一些规则的削弱，这些规则确保政府如果不从欧洲银行和美国银行大量借贷，就无法创造足够的信贷来实现欧洲复苏。
因此，欧元的创建方式是为了最小化政府的作用，最大化银行的作用，从本质上讲，这就是它从一开始就成为右翼芝加哥学派发展的原因，现在我们已经看到了它是如何展开的。
Hoàng Phan
· 12h
The euro itself is often thought of as the first example of exit — a planned exit from the dollar system. Because by creating the euro, the European countries essentially ejected the dollar from their mutual transactions. So this was the beginning of European monetary integration, largely by combining the surplus run by the German economy, with the rest of the Eurozone that was running a deficit. And so in that sense, they were trying to balance and stabilize their own exchange rates.
HOWEVER,
The way in which the euro was created was basically the satellite currency of the United States, because it was designed by Robert Mondell at the University of Chicago for what he was given the annual Nobel Prize for the worst economic advice that they give annually.
And he created the euro in a very right-wing “Chicago School” way, in a way that blocked the Eurozone from actually using the euro and the central bank to actually finance Keynesian-style budget deficits.
European countries were forbidden to run a budget deficit of more than three percent of their GDP, which is a very small amount. And what that did was prevent the euro from creating enough money, enough currency, enough credit, to really become a rival for the dollar.
It was sort of crippled from the very beginning by the rules that made sure the government would not be able to create enough credit to enable European recovery to take place without very very heavy borrowing from the European banks and from the American banks.
So the euro was created in a way to minimize the role of government, maximize the role of banks, and essentially that’s what made it a right-wing Chicago School development from the very beginning, and we’ve now seen how it’s unfolded.
欧元本身通常被认为是退出的第一个例子——计划退出美元体系。因为通过创造欧元，欧洲国家实质上将美元排除在相互交易之外。因此，这是欧洲货币一体化的开始，主要是将德国经济的盈余与欧元区其他国家的赤字结合起来。因此从这个意义上说，他们正在努力平衡和稳定自己的汇率。
然而，
欧元的基本上是美国的卫星货币，因为它是由芝加哥大学的罗伯特·蒙德尔设计的，他因每年提出的最糟糕的经济建议而获得了诺贝尔奖。
他以一种非常右翼的“芝加哥学派”方式创造了欧元，这种方式阻止了欧元区实际使用欧元和央行来为凯恩斯主义式的预算赤字融资。
这使得欧洲国家的预算赤字不得超过国内生产总值的百分之三，这是一个非常小的数字。这样做的结果是阻止欧元创造足够的货币、足够的信贷，从而真正成为美元的竞争对手。
它从一开始就受到了一些规则的削弱，这些规则确保政府如果不从欧洲银行和美国银行大量借贷，就无法创造足够的信贷来实现欧洲复苏。
因此，欧元的创建方式是为了最小化政府的作用，最大化银行的作用，从本质上讲，这就是它从一开始就成为右翼芝加哥学派发展的原因，现在我们已经看到了它是如何展开的。
Germany’s industrial exports were the major factor supporting the euro’s exchange rate. The great attraction to Germany in moving from the deutsche mark to the euro would avoid its export surplus from pushing up the D-mark’s exchange rate to a point where German products would be priced out of world markets. Expanding the currency to include Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and other countries running balance-of-payments deficit would prevent the currency from soaring. And that would protect the competitiveness of German industry.
After its introduction in 1999 at $1.12, the euro did indeed sink to $0.85 by July 2001, but recovered and indeed rose to $1.58 in April 2008. It has been drifting down steadily since then, and since February of this year the sanctions have driven the euro’s exchange rate below parity with the dollar to $0.97 this week. The major factor has been rising prices for imported gas and oil, and products such as aluminum and fertilizer requiring heavy energy inputs for their production. And as the euro’s exchange rate declines against the dollar, the cost of carrying its US-dollar debt – the normal condition for affiliates of U.S. multinationals – will rise, squeezing their profits.
德国工业出口是支撑欧元汇率的主要因素。从德国马克转向欧元对德国具有巨大吸引力，这将避免其出口盈余推高德国马克汇率，导致德国产品因价格过高而被挤出世界市场。将货币范围扩大到希腊、意大利、葡萄牙、西班牙和其他存在国际收支赤字的国家将阻止货币飙升。这将保护德国工业的竞争力。
欧元于1999年以1.12美元的价格推出后，到2001年7月确实跌至 0.85美元，但在 2008年4月反弹并确实升至1.58美元。此后欧元一直在稳步下跌，自今年 2月以来，制裁推动了欧元的贬值。本周欧元兑美元汇率低于平价0.97美元。主要因素是进口天然气和石油以及铝和化肥等产品的价格上涨，这些产品的生产需要大量的能源投入。随着欧元兑美元汇率下跌，承担美元债务的成本（这是美国跨国公司附属公司的正常情况）将会上升，从而挤压它们的利润。
After its introduction in 1999 at $1.12, the euro did indeed sink to $0.85 by July 2001, but recovered and indeed rose to $1.58 in April 2008. It has been drifting down steadily since then, and since February of this year the sanctions have driven the euro’s exchange rate below parity with the dollar to $0.97 this week. The major factor has been rising prices for imported gas and oil, and products such as aluminum and fertilizer requiring heavy energy inputs for their production. And as the euro’s exchange rate declines against the dollar, the cost of carrying its US-dollar debt – the normal condition for affiliates of U.S. multinationals – will rise, squeezing their profits.
德国工业出口是支撑欧元汇率的主要因素。从德国马克转向欧元对德国具有巨大吸引力，这将避免其出口盈余推高德国马克汇率，导致德国产品因价格过高而被挤出世界市场。将货币范围扩大到希腊、意大利、葡萄牙、西班牙和其他存在国际收支赤字的国家将阻止货币飙升。这将保护德国工业的竞争力。
欧元于1999年以1.12美元的价格推出后，到2001年7月确实跌至 0.85美元，但在 2008年4月反弹并确实升至1.58美元。此后欧元一直在稳步下跌，自今年 2月以来，制裁推动了欧元的贬值。本周欧元兑美元汇率低于平价0.97美元。主要因素是进口天然气和石油以及铝和化肥等产品的价格上涨，这些产品的生产需要大量的能源投入。随着欧元兑美元汇率下跌，承担美元债务的成本（这是美国跨国公司附属公司的正常情况）将会上升，从而挤压它们的利润。
This is not the kind of depression that “automatic stabilizers” can work “the magic of the marketplace” to restore economic balance. Energy dependency is structural. And the eurozone’s own economic rules limit its budget deficits to just 3% of GDP. This prevents its national governments supporting the economic by deficit spending. Higher energy and food prices – and dollar-debt service – will leave much less income to be spent on goods and services.
As a final kicker, Pepe Escobar pointed out on September 28, 2022 that “Germany is contractually obligated to purchase at least 40 billion cubic meters of Russian gas a year until 2030. … Gazprom is legally entitled to get paid even without shipping gas. That’s the spirit of a long-term contract. … Berlin does not get all the gas it needs but still needs to pay.” It looks like a long court battle before money will change hands – but Germany’s ability to pay will be steadilyweakening.
这不是“自动稳定器”可以发挥“市场魔力”来恢复经济平衡的那种萧条。能源依赖是结构性的。欧元区自身的经济规则将其预算赤字限制在 GDP的3%之内。这阻止了其国家政府通过赤字支出支持经济。能源和食品价格上涨以及美元债务还本付息将使用于商品和服务的收入大幅减少。
最后，佩佩·埃斯科巴 (Pepe Escobar)于2022年9月28日指出，“根据合同规定，到2030年，德国每年有义务购买至少 400亿立方米的俄罗斯天然气。……即使不运输天然气，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司也有合法权利获得付款。”这就是长期合同的精神。 ......柏林没有获得所需的全部天然气，但仍然需要付费。”在资金易手之前，这似乎是一场漫长的法庭斗争，但德国的支付能力将逐渐减弱。
As a final kicker, Pepe Escobar pointed out on September 28, 2022 that “Germany is contractually obligated to purchase at least 40 billion cubic meters of Russian gas a year until 2030. … Gazprom is legally entitled to get paid even without shipping gas. That’s the spirit of a long-term contract. … Berlin does not get all the gas it needs but still needs to pay.” It looks like a long court battle before money will change hands – but Germany’s ability to pay will be steadilyweakening.
这不是“自动稳定器”可以发挥“市场魔力”来恢复经济平衡的那种萧条。能源依赖是结构性的。欧元区自身的经济规则将其预算赤字限制在 GDP的3%之内。这阻止了其国家政府通过赤字支出支持经济。能源和食品价格上涨以及美元债务还本付息将使用于商品和服务的收入大幅减少。
最后，佩佩·埃斯科巴 (Pepe Escobar)于2022年9月28日指出，“根据合同规定，到2030年，德国每年有义务购买至少 400亿立方米的俄罗斯天然气。……即使不运输天然气，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司也有合法权利获得付款。”这就是长期合同的精神。 ......柏林没有获得所需的全部天然气，但仍然需要付费。”在资金易手之前，这似乎是一场漫长的法庭斗争，但德国的支付能力将逐渐减弱。
For that matter, the ability of many countries’ ability to pay already is reaching the breaking point.
就此而言，许多国家的支付能力已经达到了极限。
就此而言，许多国家的支付能力已经达到了极限。
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Ahmad Jamal
· 6h
Great economic article. I think Germany needs to move away from US enforced sanctions & do business with Russia & China as well as others outside EU more freely. It will bring vivacity to its economy as well as ensure it remains th 4th Largest Economy in th World.
很棒的经济文章。 我认为德国需要摆脱美国的强制制裁和制裁与俄罗斯做生意，中国以及欧盟以外的其他国家更加自由。它将为其经济带来活力，并确保其继续保持世界第四大经济体的地位。
Ahmad Jamal
· 6h
Great economic article. I think Germany needs to move away from US enforced sanctions & do business with Russia & China as well as others outside EU more freely. It will bring vivacity to its economy as well as ensure it remains th 4th Largest Economy in th World.
很棒的经济文章。 我认为德国需要摆脱美国的强制制裁和制裁与俄罗斯做生意，中国以及欧盟以外的其他国家更加自由。它将为其经济带来活力，并确保其继续保持世界第四大经济体的地位。
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Czar Merazmican
· 2h
That's technically impossible at the current moment!
目前这在技术上是不可能的！
Czar Merazmican
· 2h
That's technically impossible at the current moment!
目前这在技术上是不可能的！
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Myron Sanderson
· 7h
Very insightful, thank you!
非常有见地，谢谢！
Myron Sanderson
· 7h
Very insightful, thank you!
非常有见地，谢谢！
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BL Cheah
· 12h
Daleep Singh was truly stupid. He is not born in India.
You don't get anywhere threatening India. They believe they are immensely powerful so intimidation does not work.
Yes, offer them goodies. I don't believe USA will ever be nice enough to offer a $100b swap, but $10b is possible.
Tech transfer is impossible. USA won't empower a second China. Moreover many elite Americans are personally aware that Indians are very cunning and entirely capable of politicking their way to the top.
I think for most elite Indians, easy to get HB1 visas are at top priority. If you doubled the HB1 quota for Indians for 10 years, doubled the diversity visa quota for 10 years, then together with just a $10b swap facility, that would go very far to swaying Indians.
As for Modi, anything that flatters his ego will work. My bet is on a Ticker Tape parade in NYC with a million Indian-Americans throwing flowers at their Chaiwallah Raja.
Jaishankar can do nothing that makes Modi happier.
戴利普·辛格确实很愚蠢。他不是出生在印度。
你无法威胁印度。他们相信自己拥有无比强大的力量，因此恐吓是行不通的。
是的，给他们一些好吃的。我不相信美国会足够好地提供100亿美元的互换。
技术转让是不可能的。美国不会催生第二个中国。此外，许多美国精英个人都意识到印度人非常狡猾，完全有能力通过政治手段登上顶峰。
我认为对于大多数印度精英来说，容易获得 HB1签证是首要任务。如果你将印度人的 HB1配额增加一倍，持续 10年，将多样性签证配额增加一倍，持续 10年，那么再加上100亿美元的互换安排，这对印度人来说将大有裨益。
对于莫迪来说，任何能让他自负的事情都会起作用。我敢打赌，纽约市将为他举行一场游行，届时将有 100万印度裔美国人向他们的穷朋友投掷鲜花。
苏杰生无法做任何让莫迪更高兴的事情。
BL Cheah
· 12h
Daleep Singh was truly stupid. He is not born in India.
You don't get anywhere threatening India. They believe they are immensely powerful so intimidation does not work.
Yes, offer them goodies. I don't believe USA will ever be nice enough to offer a $100b swap, but $10b is possible.
Tech transfer is impossible. USA won't empower a second China. Moreover many elite Americans are personally aware that Indians are very cunning and entirely capable of politicking their way to the top.
I think for most elite Indians, easy to get HB1 visas are at top priority. If you doubled the HB1 quota for Indians for 10 years, doubled the diversity visa quota for 10 years, then together with just a $10b swap facility, that would go very far to swaying Indians.
As for Modi, anything that flatters his ego will work. My bet is on a Ticker Tape parade in NYC with a million Indian-Americans throwing flowers at their Chaiwallah Raja.
Jaishankar can do nothing that makes Modi happier.
戴利普·辛格确实很愚蠢。他不是出生在印度。
你无法威胁印度。他们相信自己拥有无比强大的力量，因此恐吓是行不通的。
是的，给他们一些好吃的。我不相信美国会足够好地提供100亿美元的互换。
技术转让是不可能的。美国不会催生第二个中国。此外，许多美国精英个人都意识到印度人非常狡猾，完全有能力通过政治手段登上顶峰。
我认为对于大多数印度精英来说，容易获得 HB1签证是首要任务。如果你将印度人的 HB1配额增加一倍，持续 10年，将多样性签证配额增加一倍，持续 10年，那么再加上100亿美元的互换安排，这对印度人来说将大有裨益。
对于莫迪来说，任何能让他自负的事情都会起作用。我敢打赌，纽约市将为他举行一场游行，届时将有 100万印度裔美国人向他们的穷朋友投掷鲜花。
苏杰生无法做任何让莫迪更高兴的事情。
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III Moh
· 11h
2nd Last para is spot on,!
最后第二段是正确的，！
III Moh
· 11h
2nd Last para is spot on,!
最后第二段是正确的，！
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Allan Kay
· 35m
Daleep is as much an Indian as Bill Clinton is Irish.
The US in best at the trickery of mindset; get a Black to trigger a war with Iraq and soon a Filipino with China & etc.
戴利普是印度人，就像比尔·克林顿是爱尔兰人一样。
美国最擅长思维诡计；让黑人引发与伊拉克的战争，很快又让菲律宾人与中国和美国发动战争。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Allan Kay
· 35m
Daleep is as much an Indian as Bill Clinton is Irish.
The US in best at the trickery of mindset; get a Black to trigger a war with Iraq and soon a Filipino with China & etc.
戴利普是印度人，就像比尔·克林顿是爱尔兰人一样。
美国最擅长思维诡计；让黑人引发与伊拉克的战争，很快又让菲律宾人与中国和美国发动战争。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
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CjW
· 13h
Interesting. The USD is about the 59th most used trading currency at the moment, so 40% by 2030 sounds about right - if things continue to wind down slowly. However, my bet is that they will default on their debt before 2030, which will result in a massive collapse of the USD overnight. I'm absolutely certain that the Euro will be the most likely currency to be adopted. Despite its problems, most of the Euro economies do not carry a lot of debt (a few exceptions).
有趣的。美元目前在最常用的交易货币中排名第 59位，因此如果情况继续缓慢放缓，到 2030年达到 40% 听起来不错。然而，我的赌注是，他们将在 2030年之前拖欠债务，这将导致美元在一夜之间大幅崩溃。我绝对确定欧元将是最有可能被采用的货币。尽管存在问题，大多数欧元经济体并没有背负大量债务（少数例外）。
CjW
· 13h
Interesting. The USD is about the 59th most used trading currency at the moment, so 40% by 2030 sounds about right - if things continue to wind down slowly. However, my bet is that they will default on their debt before 2030, which will result in a massive collapse of the USD overnight. I'm absolutely certain that the Euro will be the most likely currency to be adopted. Despite its problems, most of the Euro economies do not carry a lot of debt (a few exceptions).
有趣的。美元目前在最常用的交易货币中排名第 59位，因此如果情况继续缓慢放缓，到 2030年达到 40% 听起来不错。然而，我的赌注是，他们将在 2030年之前拖欠债务，这将导致美元在一夜之间大幅崩溃。我绝对确定欧元将是最有可能被采用的货币。尽管存在问题，大多数欧元经济体并没有背负大量债务（少数例外）。
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Curious
· 12h
Us never needs to default on their dollar denominated debt. They can make more dollars. Defaulting is worse than making more dollars, so they make more dollars.
我们永远不需要拖欠以美元计价的债务。他们可以赚更多的钱。违约比赚更多美元更糟糕，所以他们赚更多美元。
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Curious
· 12h
Us never needs to default on their dollar denominated debt. They can make more dollars. Defaulting is worse than making more dollars, so they make more dollars.
我们永远不需要拖欠以美元计价的债务。他们可以赚更多的钱。违约比赚更多美元更糟糕，所以他们赚更多美元。
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Elliott J. Schuchardt
· 13h
I'm betting BRICS currency at 40%, yuan at 20%, euro at 20%, local currencies at 15%, and dollar at 5% by 2030.
我押注到2030年，金砖国家货币将增长 40%，人民币将增长 20%，欧元将增长 20%，当地货币将增长 15%，美元将增长 5%。
Elliott J. Schuchardt
· 13h
I'm betting BRICS currency at 40%, yuan at 20%, euro at 20%, local currencies at 15%, and dollar at 5% by 2030.
我押注到2030年，金砖国家货币将增长 40%，人民币将增长 20%，欧元将增长 20%，当地货币将增长 15%，美元将增长 5%。
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Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam
· 9h
Too early
Maybe 2050
太早了
也许到2050年
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Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam
· 9h
Too early
Maybe 2050
太早了
也许到2050年
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Venkat Indra வெங்கட் இந்தரா
· 11h
Daleep singh is a product of colonial past, when he dictates and others need to listen.
Times have changed.
戴利普·辛格是殖民历史的产物，他发号施令，其他人需要倾听。
时代变了。
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Venkat Indra வெங்கட் இந்தரா
· 11h
Daleep singh is a product of colonial past, when he dictates and others need to listen.
Times have changed.
戴利普·辛格是殖民历史的产物，他发号施令，其他人需要倾听。
时代变了。
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Abdul Rehman
· 12h
For further distancing of the dollar many countries has to have a alternative which we don't have, and countries don't try to find a different way out as they try to depend on dollar.
The opec countries like Saudi may seem like moving away from the dollar but will come back to it or they are just playing hard to get.
Same with china they do try to strengthen the yuan but will buy dollars.
为了进一步远离美元，许多国家必须有我们没有的替代方案，而各国在试图依赖美元时不会试图寻找不同的出路。
像沙特这样的欧佩克国家可能看起来会放弃美元，但最终会回归美元，或者他们只是在玩弄欲擒故纵的游戏。
与中国一样，他们确实试图让人民币升值，但会购买美元。
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Abdul Rehman
· 12h
For further distancing of the dollar many countries has to have a alternative which we don't have, and countries don't try to find a different way out as they try to depend on dollar.
The opec countries like Saudi may seem like moving away from the dollar but will come back to it or they are just playing hard to get.
Same with china they do try to strengthen the yuan but will buy dollars.
为了进一步远离美元，许多国家必须有我们没有的替代方案，而各国在试图依赖美元时不会试图寻找不同的出路。
像沙特这样的欧佩克国家可能看起来会放弃美元，但最终会回归美元，或者他们只是在玩弄欲擒故纵的游戏。
与中国一样，他们确实试图让人民币升值，但会购买美元。
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Marceline
· 11h
Well, I have a theory that the entire special military operation was a trap set by Putin-JINPINg working together to lure the west to sanction Russia which is used as an ammunition to de-dollarize countries around the world.
Russia & China did not start de-dollarization in 2022. It was a slow decade long process throughout the 2010s particularly indicated by the relentless purchase of gold.
Also I won’t rule out the de-dollarization process entering the physical realm — for example a nuclear or pure EMP attack on Bank of America, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo data centers. The dollar ends completely, literally overnight. Not directly though but by some proxy.
Let me bring to notice that there are “rumors” of a false flag cyber attacks such as banks that enable powers that be instate instruments for internet surveillance. I wouldn’t rule out someone else seizing that opportunity to expand the scope, so to speak.
那么我有一个理论，整个特别军事行动是普京和中国联手设下的陷阱，引诱西方制裁俄罗斯，作为世界各国去美元化的弹药。
俄罗斯与中国并没有在 2022年开始去美元化。这是一个贯穿2010年代长达十年的缓慢过程，尤其是对黄金的疯狂购买。
此外，我也不排除去美元化进程进入物理领域——例如对美国银行、摩根大通、富国银行数据中心进行核攻击或纯粹的电磁脉冲攻击。美元彻底终结，简直是一夜之间。但不是直接的，而是通过一些曲线手法。
让我提请注意，有一些关于网络攻击的“谣言”，例如银行，这些攻击赋予了国家监控互联网的权力。可以这么说，我不排除其他人抓住这个机会扩大范围。
Marceline
· 11h
Well, I have a theory that the entire special military operation was a trap set by Putin-JINPINg working together to lure the west to sanction Russia which is used as an ammunition to de-dollarize countries around the world.
Russia & China did not start de-dollarization in 2022. It was a slow decade long process throughout the 2010s particularly indicated by the relentless purchase of gold.
Also I won’t rule out the de-dollarization process entering the physical realm — for example a nuclear or pure EMP attack on Bank of America, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo data centers. The dollar ends completely, literally overnight. Not directly though but by some proxy.
Let me bring to notice that there are “rumors” of a false flag cyber attacks such as banks that enable powers that be instate instruments for internet surveillance. I wouldn’t rule out someone else seizing that opportunity to expand the scope, so to speak.
那么我有一个理论，整个特别军事行动是普京和中国联手设下的陷阱，引诱西方制裁俄罗斯，作为世界各国去美元化的弹药。
俄罗斯与中国并没有在 2022年开始去美元化。这是一个贯穿2010年代长达十年的缓慢过程，尤其是对黄金的疯狂购买。
此外，我也不排除去美元化进程进入物理领域——例如对美国银行、摩根大通、富国银行数据中心进行核攻击或纯粹的电磁脉冲攻击。美元彻底终结，简直是一夜之间。但不是直接的，而是通过一些曲线手法。
让我提请注意，有一些关于网络攻击的“谣言”，例如银行，这些攻击赋予了国家监控互联网的权力。可以这么说，我不排除其他人抓住这个机会扩大范围。
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Jeremiah Emunyu
· 3h
Should the US dollar collapse now, most currencies including Yuan will collapse. Other currencies have not yet gained enough acceptance globally to replace the dollar
如果美元现在崩溃，包括人民币在内的大多数货币都将崩溃。其他货币尚未在全球范围内获得足够的接受度来取代美元
Jeremiah Emunyu
· 3h
Should the US dollar collapse now, most currencies including Yuan will collapse. Other currencies have not yet gained enough acceptance globally to replace the dollar
如果美元现在崩溃，包括人民币在内的大多数货币都将崩溃。其他货币尚未在全球范围内获得足够的接受度来取代美元
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Myron Sanderson
· 7h
This commentary is right on the money!
这个评论对钱来说是正确的！
Myron Sanderson
· 7h
This commentary is right on the money!
这个评论对钱来说是正确的！
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Jeff Duda
· 7h
One good thing is that technology has made it much easier to not even have a world reserve currency and have a multi-polar currency world where no one has much power over others through currency manipulation.
一件好事是，技术使得没有世界储备货币和多极货币的世界变得更加容易，在这个世界中，没有人可以通过货币操纵对其他人拥有太大的权力。
Jeff Duda
· 7h
One good thing is that technology has made it much easier to not even have a world reserve currency and have a multi-polar currency world where no one has much power over others through currency manipulation.
一件好事是，技术使得没有世界储备货币和多极货币的世界变得更加容易，在这个世界中，没有人可以通过货币操纵对其他人拥有太大的权力。
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AR
· 6h
Daleep Singh was educated at the best universities in the US even in the world. (Harvard and MIT) What the hell is going on at these universities? He probably didn’t even benefit from Affirmative action. How could he be so incompetent as described in this answer?
戴利普·辛格 (Daleep Singh) 曾在美国甚至世界上最好的大学接受教育。（哈佛大学和麻省理工学院）这些大学到底发生了什么？他甚至可能没有从平权行动中受益。他怎么会像这个答案中描述的那么无能呢？
AR
· 6h
Daleep Singh was educated at the best universities in the US even in the world. (Harvard and MIT) What the hell is going on at these universities? He probably didn’t even benefit from Affirmative action. How could he be so incompetent as described in this answer?
戴利普·辛格 (Daleep Singh) 曾在美国甚至世界上最好的大学接受教育。（哈佛大学和麻省理工学院）这些大学到底发生了什么？他甚至可能没有从平权行动中受益。他怎么会像这个答案中描述的那么无能呢？
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Jeremiah Emunyu
· 3h
Let me pray that Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam lives for another 20 or 30 years then I will ask him the status of the yuan. China cannot open up its currency to be used as a reserve currency (it will only be used for paying imports to china) because it will give Chinese exports hard time selling products cheaply like they do.
让我祈祷KB再活20年或30年，然后我会问他人民币的状况。中国不会开放其货币管制并作为其他国家的储备货币（它只会用于支付中国的进口货款），因为这将使中国出口产品很难像他们现在那样低价销售产品。
Jeremiah Emunyu
· 3h
Let me pray that Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam lives for another 20 or 30 years then I will ask him the status of the yuan. China cannot open up its currency to be used as a reserve currency (it will only be used for paying imports to china) because it will give Chinese exports hard time selling products cheaply like they do.
让我祈祷KB再活20年或30年，然后我会问他人民币的状况。中国不会开放其货币管制并作为其他国家的储备货币（它只会用于支付中国的进口货款），因为这将使中国出口产品很难像他们现在那样低价销售产品。
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Russell Miller
· 2h
The next potentially disastrous step that is being contemplated is over what the us and eu intend to do with the Russian financial assests seized after the start of the war.
正在考虑的下一个可能是灾难性的步骤是美国和欧盟打算如何处理战争开始后扣押的俄罗斯金融资产。
Russell Miller
· 2h
The next potentially disastrous step that is being contemplated is over what the us and eu intend to do with the Russian financial assests seized after the start of the war.
正在考虑的下一个可能是灾难性的步骤是美国和欧盟打算如何处理战争开始后扣押的俄罗斯金融资产。
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Zé P
· 1h
Japan got nuked a 3rd time by the Plaza Accords.
日本因《广场协议》第三次遭受核打击。
Zé P
· 1h
Japan got nuked a 3rd time by the Plaza Accords.
日本因《广场协议》第三次遭受核打击。
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