沙特最近发现的金矿会为其经济带来强劲动力吗

题图。

Saudi Arabia's latest gold discovery has led to speculation it could emerge as a major regional producer of the precious metal.

沙特因其最近发现的金矿让人们猜测其将成为该地区的主要贵金属的生产商。

The Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) last week announced it found massive gold deposits in the Makkah region.

沙特矿业公司（Ma‘aden）上个星期宣布，它在麦加地区发现了大量金矿。
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The discoveries, the first from an exploration programme launched by the company in 2022, are located along a 100km strip in the south of Ma'aden's Mansourah-Massarah gold mine.

金矿是公司于2022年启动的勘探计划的首次发现，位于Ma'aden公司的Mansourah-Massarah金矿南部100公里的地带。

“The gold discovery could prove significant as the gold content of the ore is high,” Nasser Saidi, a former Lebanese economy minister and vice governor of the country's central bank, told The National.

黎巴嫩前经济部长、黎巴嫩央行副行长纳赛尔-赛义迪（Nasser Saidi）告诉《国家报》：“由于矿石的含金量很高，这次发现的金矿可能意义重大。”
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Samples collected from two random drilling locations, located 400 metres below and adjacent to Mansourah-Massarah, revealed the existence of high-grade gold deposits, measuring 10.4 grams per tonne (g/t) and 20.6 g/t, respectively.

从位于Mansourah-Massarah地下400米左右的附近两个随机钻探地点采集的样本显示，存在高品位金矿，其密度分别为10.4克/吨和20.6克/吨。
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Higher-grade mines typically have densities of eight to 10 g/t, while lower-grade mines have densities of one to four g/t.

高品位矿的密度通常为每吨8-10克，而低品位矿的密度为每吨1-4克。

The higher the ore grade, the greater its value, and the extraction process becomes easier.

矿石品位越高，价值越大，开采过程也就越容易。

Mansourah-Massarah had gold resources of almost seven million ounces at the end of 2023 and production capacity of 250,000 ounces a year.

截至2023年底，Mansourah-Massarah黄金储量接近700万盎司，年生产能力为25万盎司。(译者注：1盎司=28.350克，25/700万盎司=7.1/198.5吨)

In comparison, Russia’s largest gold mine, Sukhoi Log, had reserves of 40 million ounces as of 2020. South Africa’s South Deep mine has about 32.8 million ounces of gold reserves.

相比之下，俄罗斯最大的金矿苏霍伊罗格金矿截至2020年的储量为4000万盎司。南非的South Deep金矿拥有约3280万盎司的黄金储量。

When it comes to production, the Nevada Gold Mines complex in the US is the largest, with an annual production of about 3.3 million ounces, representing close to 3 per cent of the global gold production.

就产量而言，美国内华达金矿综合体是最大的，年产量约为330万盎司，占全球黄金产量的近3%。
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Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has been looking to diversify away from crude exports by developing sectors including tourism, hospitality and finance.

沙特阿拉伯是世界上最大的石油出口国，一直希望通过发展旅游业、酒店业和金融业来实现原油出口的多元化。

Mining is also a key component of the kingdom’s drive to attract foreign direct investment as laid out in the Vision 2030 plan. It aims to more than triple the mining sector’s contribution to the nation’s economic output by the end of the decade.

矿业也是沙特2030愿景计划中吸引外国直接投资的关键组成部分。该计划旨在到2030年末，将采矿业对国家经济产出的贡献提高两倍以上。

“Gold mining has the potential to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy and contribute to the kingdom’s gross domestic product,” the WGC said.

世界黄金协会表示：“黄金开采具有使沙特阿拉伯经济多样化并为王国国内生产总值做出贡献的潜力”。

As an asset class, gold can “substantially” strengthen the kingdom’s economy, particularly the financial system, the council said.

作为一种资产类别，黄金可以"极大地"加强沙特王国的经济，尤其是金融体系。

The kingdom's economy, which expanded 8.7 per cent in 2022, the highest annual growth rate among the world's 20 biggest economies, was forecast to grow 0.8 per cent last year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

沙特经济在2022年增长了8.7%，是全球20个最大经济体中年增长率最高的国家，但去年预计只有0.8%，这是来自国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）提供的预测数据。

The World Bank has estimated gross domestic product growth of 4.1 per cent this year for Saudi Arabia.

世界银行预计沙特阿拉伯今年的国内生产总值将增长4.1%。

For now, gold exports are unlikely to yield any significant returns, analysts say.

分析师说，目前，黄金出口不太可能产生任何重大回报。

"The reported production capacity of 250,000 ounces a year by Mansourah-Massarah is relatively small, and if we assume that all is exported it will generate only $511 million at the current prices of gold around $2,045," said Garbis Iradian, chief economist for Mena and Central Asia at the Institute of International Finance.

国际金融研究所（Institute of International Finance）负责孟加拉和中亚地区的首席经济学家加比斯-伊拉迪安（Garbis Iradian）说：“据报道，Mansourah-Massarah金矿每年25万盎司的生产能力相对较小，如果我们假定全部出口，以目前约2045美元每盎司的黄金价格计算，只能产生5.11亿美元的收益。”

"Total exports of Saudi Arabia in 2023 are estimated at $308.8 billion. Therefore, the $511 million would be a small fraction of total exports."

“沙特阿拉伯2023年的出口总额估计为3,088亿美元。因此，5.11亿美元只是出口总额的一小部分。”

But the gold find may help the kingdom to reduce its reliance on imports of the precious metal.

但此次发现的金矿可能有助于沙特减少对贵金属进口的依赖。

In 2021, the kingdom imported $3.68 billion in gold, which was the fourth most imported product after refined petroleum, broadcasting equipment and vehicles, data from the World Bank's Wits platform showed.

世界银行的世界综合贸易解决方案平台的数据显示，2021年，王国进口了36.8亿美元的黄金，是继精炼石油、广播设备和车辆之后的第四大进口产品。

“Central banks, pension funds and other institutional investors have long recognised the benefits of allocating to gold,” the WGC said.

“中央银行、养老基金和其他机构投资者早已认识到配置黄金的好处，”世界黄金协会说。

“Individuals in Saudi Arabia also benefit from the financial security that gold can bring – bar and coin demand in Saudi Arabia is the largest in the GCC."

“沙特阿拉伯的个人也受益于黄金带来的金融安全--沙特阿拉伯的金条和金币需求是海合会国家中最大的。”

Time to shine

闪耀时刻

It might take some time before the discovery leads to a substantial increase in Saudi Arabia’s gold production, which experienced a 11 per cent year-over-year gain in 2022.

这一发现可能需要一段时间才能导致沙特阿拉伯黄金产量大幅增加，2022年该产量同比增长11%。

Usually, it takes about 10 to 20 years after the discovery of a deposit before a gold mine can yield material suitable for refining into bullion.

通常，金矿发现矿床后大约需要10至20年才能产出适合精炼成金条的材料。

The country’s gold output is expected to rise 12 per cent annually between 2022 and 2026, compared with a growth of 7 per cent over the 2017-2021 period, according to GlobalData.

根据全球数据公司的数据，2022年至2026年期间，该国的黄金产量预计将每年增长12%，而2017年至2021年期间的增长率为7%。

Although the size of the new discovery is unknown, Ma'aden said in company documents that it would undertake "aggressive escalation of planned drilling activities" this year, Reuters reported.

据路透社报道，尽管新发现的规模尚不清楚，但Ma'aden公司在公司文件中表示，今年将 “积极升级计划中的钻探活动”。
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Ma'aden, which is 67 per cent owned by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), did not respond to The National's queries regarding future production and potential partnerships with foreign partners.

公共投资基金（PIF）拥有67%股份的Ma'aden公司没有回应《国家报》关于未来生产和与外国合作伙伴潜在合作关系的询问。

In a statement last week, the company’s chief executive said the discoveries demonstrated the untapped potential of mineral resources in Saudi Arabia.

该公司首席执行官在上周的一份声明中说，这些发现表明了沙特阿拉伯矿产资源尚未开发的潜力。

It supports the “diversification of the country in line with Vision 2030 and establishing mining as the third pillar of the Saudi economy”, Ma'aden chief executive Robert Wilt said.

Ma'aden公司首席执行官罗伯特-威尔特（Robert Wilt）说，该公司支持“根据《2030年远景规划》实现国家多样化，并将采矿业打造成为沙特经济的第三大支柱。"

Canada’s Barrick Gold, one of the world’s largest gold producers, already has a major presence in Saudi Arabia. The company did not respond to a request for comment.

加拿大巴里克黄金公司（Barrick Gold）是世界上最大的黄金生产商之一，已经在沙特阿拉伯拥有重要的业务。该公司没有回应置评请求。

Some mining analysts said that additional gold intercepts needed to be reported in the region before an assessment could be made of the new discovery.

一些矿业分析师表示，在对这一新发现进行评估之前，该地区还需要报告更多的金矿勘探情况。
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“All too often, amazing initial results underwhelm in further drilling or an actual resource, so we'll need to see some more intercepts reported before we get excited,” Kevin Murphy, director of metals & mining research at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told The National.

标准普尔全球商品洞察公司（S&P Global Commodity Insights）金属与矿业研究主管凯文-墨菲（Kevin Murphy）告诉《国家报》：“令人惊叹的初步结果往往会在进一步钻探或实际资源量方面令人失望，因此我们需要看到更多的勘探报告，然后才能感到兴奋。”

“We are withholding judgment on the potential new deposits at Massarah until more results are reported."

“在报告更多结果之前，我们暂不对Massarah的潜在新矿藏做出判断。”

Vikas Lakhwani, chief revenue officer at CPT Markets in London, said it was important to approach the discovery with “cautious optimism” given the complexity of the geology.

伦敦CPT Markets公司的首席收入官维卡斯-拉克瓦尼（Vikas Lakhwani）说，鉴于地质的复杂性，必须以 “谨慎乐观”的态度对待这一发现。

If the resource estimates, exploration trends and infrastructure plans prove successful "this discovery has the potential to redefine the mineral landscape" of the Arabian Peninsula, Mr Lakhwani told The National.

Lakhwani 先生告诉《国家报》，“如果资源估算、勘探趋势和基础设施计划证明是成功的，这一发现有可能重新定义阿拉伯半岛的矿产景观。”

Shining bright

闪闪发光

Gold had a strong 2023, defying expectations amid a high interest rate environment. It hit a record high of $2,144 an ounce in early December.

黄金价格在2023年表现强劲，在高利率环境下超出了预期。12月初触及每盎司2,144 美元的历史新高。

Historically, gold has performed well during times of crisis and uncertainty. Its price soared during the global financial crisis, again during the eurozone crisis of 2011 and also during the Covid-19 pandemic. It hit its previous high of $2,074.20 in August 2020.

从历史上看，黄金在危机和不确定时期表现良好。它的价格在全球金融危机期间飙升，在2011年欧元区危机期间以及Covid-19大流行期间再次飙升。它于2020年8月触及2,074.20美元的历史高点。

MUFG, Japan’s largest lender, expects gold to trade at $2,350 an ounce by the end of 2024, up from $2,041 currently.

日本最大的银行三菱日联金融集团预计，到2024年底，金价将从目前的2,041 美元/盎司上涨至2,350美元/盎司。

“Gold is our most bullish commodities call in 2024 and is set to hit record levels on a trifecta of [US Federal Reserve] cuts, supportive central bank demand and bullion’s role as the geopolitical hedge of last resort,” said Ehsan Khoman, head of ESG, commodities and emerging markets research at MUFG.

“黄金是我们在2024年最看好的大宗商品，在美联储降息、央行需求的支持以及黄金作为最后手段的地缘政治对冲作用的三重作用下，黄金价格将创下历史新高，”三菱日联金融集团的ESG、从事大宗商品和新兴市场研究的Ehsan Khoman表示。

“Tactically, we would view a sell-off in gold this year as a buying opportunity, as we see an environment with elevated risk channels ahead playing into gold’s favourable hedging qualities."

“从战术上讲，我们将今年黄金的抛售视为买入机会，因为我们认为未来风险渠道上升的环境将展现黄金有利的对冲品质。”

Mining potential

采矿潜力
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Saudi Arabia has more than 5,300 mining sites, valued at about $1.3 trillion, containing minerals including gold, silver, copper, zinc, phosphate, bauxite and limestone, a 2022 study by the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources showed.

沙特阿拉伯工业和矿产资源部2022年的一项研究显示，沙特阿拉伯拥有5300多个矿区，价值约1.3万亿美元，矿产包括金、银、铜、锌、磷酸盐、铝土矿和石灰石。

The kingdom currently accounts for about 37.9 per cent of the Middle East and North Africa’s $16 billion metals and mining market, official data show. Its mining industry grew 27 per cent annually to reach more than $194 million – achieving its highest revenue in 2022.

官方数据显示，在中东和北非160亿美元的金属和矿业市场中，沙特目前约占37.9%。其采矿业每年增长27%，达到1.94亿美元以上--在2022年实现了最高收入。

“Saudi Arabia can attract private sector investments in underexplored regions such as the Western Arabian Shield both in precious metals, as well as critical industrial minerals that are basic resources in global decarbonisation,” Mr Saidi said.

赛义迪先生说：“沙特阿拉伯可以吸引私营部门投资西阿拉伯地盾等未充分开发地区的贵金属和关键工业矿物，这些都是全球去碳化的基础资源。”

The Western Arabian Shield region also holds valuable rare earth elements, such as tantalum, for which it has a quarter of the world's reserves. It is widely used in smartphones.

西阿拉伯地盾地区还蕴藏着宝贵的稀土元素，如钽，其储量占全球的四分之一。钽被广泛应用于智能手机。

Saudi Arabia also aims to benefit from the growing demand for metals used to produce batteries – an integral component in electric cars.

沙特阿拉伯还希望从对用于生产电池的金属日益增长的需求中获益，电池是电动汽车不可或缺的组成部分。

In 2022, the kingdom awarded a UK-Saudi consortium the exploration licence for its largest mining site, Khnaiguiyah, about 175km south-west of Riyadh.

2022年，沙特阿拉伯王国向英国-沙特财团颁发了其最大矿区Khnaiguiyah的勘探许可证，该矿区位于利雅得西南约175公里处。

The Khnaiguiyah site covers more than 350 square kilometres with an estimated resource of about 25 million tonnes of zinc and copper ores, at 4.11 per cent zinc, and 0.56 per cent copper.

Khnaiguiyah矿区占地350多平方公里，估计锌和铜矿资源量约为2500万吨，锌含量为4.11%，铜含量为0.56%。

Overall, the kingdom's efforts to diversify the economy and attract investments through the mining sector are in the early stages and have a long way to go.

总体而言，沙特王国通过采矿业实现经济多元化和吸引投资的努力还处于早期阶段，任重而道远。

"While mining is a key component of Saudi Arabia’s drive to attract foreign direct investment in Vision 2030, FDI remained limited in the kingdom at around $8 billion in 2022 [less than 1 per cent of Saudi Arabia’s GDP]," Mr Iradian said.

伊拉迪安先生说：“虽然采矿业是沙特阿拉伯在《2030年远景规划》中吸引外国直接投资的关键组成部分，但2022年沙特的外国直接投资仍然有限，约为80亿美元[不到沙特国内生产总值的1%]。”

"The kingdom needs to attract adequate FDI outside the energy sector to implement its plan to diversify and to create a dynamic and expanded private sector."

“沙特需要在能源部门之外吸引足够的外国直接投资，以实施其多元化计划，并创建一个充满活力、不断扩大的私营部门。”