美国网民讨论：伊朗使用新型弹道导弹进行了其有史以来距离最远的打击
正文翻译
The Iranian strike on Idlib was the first missile attack launched from the IRGC-AF facility in Khuzestan Province since the Iran-Iraq war. (Google Earth image)
伊朗对伊德利卜的袭击是两伊战争以来伊斯兰革命卫队首次利用胡齐斯坦省的空军基地发射导弹
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
以色列领土大部都在“堡垒破坏者”的射程范围内
The Kheiber Shekan medium range ballistic missile and its transporter erector launcher (TEL) vehicle. (YouTube screencap)
“堡垒破坏者”中程弹道导弹及其运输起竖发射车
The launch of a Kheiber Skekan medium range ballistic missile. (Twitter screencap)
“堡垒破坏者”中程弹道导弹的发射瞬间
Iran Executed Its Farthest Ballistic Missile Strike Ever With New Weapon
Iran unleashed its Kheiber Shekan medium range ballistic missile on a target in Syria, demonstrating it can reach Israel.
BY：HOWARD ALTMAN
PUBLISHED JAN 16, 2024
伊朗使用新型弹道导弹进行了其有史以来最远距离的打击——
伊朗向叙利亚目标发射了“堡垒破坏者”中程弹道导弹，表明该导弹射程足以覆盖以色列
作者：霍华德奥特曼
发布时间： 2024 年 1 月 16 日
Iran unleashed its Kheiber Shekan medium range ballistic missile on a target in Syria, demonstrating it can reach Israel.
BY：HOWARD ALTMAN
PUBLISHED JAN 16, 2024
伊朗使用新型弹道导弹进行了其有史以来最远距离的打击——
伊朗向叙利亚目标发射了“堡垒破坏者”中程弹道导弹，表明该导弹射程足以覆盖以色列
作者：霍华德奥特曼
发布时间： 2024 年 1 月 16 日
Iran used its new Kheiber Shekan medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) for the first time Monday when it struck what it claimed was a "terrorist facility" in Syria’s Idlib province. The attack was one of three Iran carried out in three countries over the past two days. Iran also attacked what it claimed was an Israeli Mossad facility in Erbil on Monday and what it claimed were "terrorist" sites in an unprecedented attack in Pakistan on Tuesday. While they all seem to have had their own obxtives, they clearly serve as a timely demonstration of Iran's ability to execute precision ballistic missile strikes close to and far beyond its borders.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Aerospace Force (IRGC-AF) launched four Kheiber Shekan MRBMs from its facility in the southern parts of Iran’s Khuzestan Province on Monday, said Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, according to the official Iranian Tasnim news agency. That’s a distance of about 800 miles.
The strike is considered the longest ever by an Iranian ballistic missile.
伊朗周一首次使用了它的新型“堡垒破坏者”中程弹道导弹，对其宣称的位于叙利亚伊德利卜省的“恐怖分子基地”进行了打击。这次打击是过去两天里伊朗向三个国家发动的三起打击行动之一。伊朗周一还袭击了其声称的位于埃尔比勒的以色列摩萨德的基地，并于周二在巴基斯坦境内发动了史无前例的打击行动，并声称打击的是“恐怖主义”基地。虽然这些攻击行动的目标似乎各有不同，但它们显然及时证明了伊朗拥有在其边境附近以及远离边境的地点实施弹道导弹精确打击的能力。
据伊朗官方塔斯尼姆通讯社报道，伊斯兰革命卫队航空兵指挥官阿米尔·阿里·哈吉扎德准将宣布，伊斯兰革命卫队航空兵周一从其位于伊朗胡齐斯坦省南部的基地发射了四枚“堡垒破坏者”中程弹道导弹，打击距离约为 800 英里（约合1287公里）。
这次袭击被认为是伊朗弹道导弹有史以来距离最远的一次打击。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Aerospace Force (IRGC-AF) launched four Kheiber Shekan MRBMs from its facility in the southern parts of Iran’s Khuzestan Province on Monday, said Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, according to the official Iranian Tasnim news agency. That’s a distance of about 800 miles.
The strike is considered the longest ever by an Iranian ballistic missile.
伊朗周一首次使用了它的新型“堡垒破坏者”中程弹道导弹，对其宣称的位于叙利亚伊德利卜省的“恐怖分子基地”进行了打击。这次打击是过去两天里伊朗向三个国家发动的三起打击行动之一。伊朗周一还袭击了其声称的位于埃尔比勒的以色列摩萨德的基地，并于周二在巴基斯坦境内发动了史无前例的打击行动，并声称打击的是“恐怖主义”基地。虽然这些攻击行动的目标似乎各有不同，但它们显然及时证明了伊朗拥有在其边境附近以及远离边境的地点实施弹道导弹精确打击的能力。
据伊朗官方塔斯尼姆通讯社报道，伊斯兰革命卫队航空兵指挥官阿米尔·阿里·哈吉扎德准将宣布，伊斯兰革命卫队航空兵周一从其位于伊朗胡齐斯坦省南部的基地发射了四枚“堡垒破坏者”中程弹道导弹，打击距离约为 800 英里（约合1287公里）。
这次袭击被认为是伊朗弹道导弹有史以来距离最远的一次打击。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The IRGC-AF also launched four other missiles from its Kermanshah facility and seven missiles from the West Azarbaijan Province at Erbil on Monday, Hajizadeh said. He added that they were targeting “the base of Zionists in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq” though Iraqi officials dispute that assertion. Hajizadeh did not specify what kind of missiles were fired in those attacks. Kermanshah is about 200 miles from Erbil and West Azarbaijan Province about 100 miles.
Iraq meanwhile filed a complaint against Iran at the U.N. Security Council.
Monday’s attacks were significant for several reasons, Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank, told The War Zone.
“There were two historic firsts,” said Taleblu, an expert in Iranian missile technology. “It was the first military use of the Kheibar Shekan MRBM and it was the first time Iran targeted two territories in two different nations in the same operation.” It was also the first launch from the IRGC-AF base in Khuzestan Province since the Iraq-Iran war, he added.
哈吉扎德说，伊斯兰革命卫队空军周一还从其位于克尔曼沙赫省的基地发射了另外四枚导弹，并从位于埃尔比勒的西阿塞拜疆省发射了七枚导弹。他补充说，这些导弹的目标是“位于伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区属于犹太复国主义者的基地”，尽管伊拉克官员对这一说法提出了异议。哈吉扎德没有说明在这些行动中发射了哪种导弹的具体型号。埃尔比勒克尔曼距沙赫省约200英里，距西阿塞拜疆省约100英里。
与此同时，伊拉克向联合国安理会提出了针对伊朗的控告。
“捍卫民主基金会”智库（注：美国与CIA存在密切关系的智库）高级研究员贝纳姆·本·塔勒布卢向“战区”网站表示，由于几个原因，伊朗周一发动的打击行动具有重大的意义。
“这次行动有两个历史性的首次，”塔勒布卢，这位伊朗导弹技术方面的专家说。“这是“堡垒破坏者”中程弹道导弹的首次投入军事行动，也是伊朗首次在同一行动中针对两个不同国家的领土。” 他补充说，这还是自两伊战争以来伊斯兰革命卫队首次利用胡齐斯坦省的空军基地发射导弹。
Iraq meanwhile filed a complaint against Iran at the U.N. Security Council.
Monday’s attacks were significant for several reasons, Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank, told The War Zone.
“There were two historic firsts,” said Taleblu, an expert in Iranian missile technology. “It was the first military use of the Kheibar Shekan MRBM and it was the first time Iran targeted two territories in two different nations in the same operation.” It was also the first launch from the IRGC-AF base in Khuzestan Province since the Iraq-Iran war, he added.
哈吉扎德说，伊斯兰革命卫队空军周一还从其位于克尔曼沙赫省的基地发射了另外四枚导弹，并从位于埃尔比勒的西阿塞拜疆省发射了七枚导弹。他补充说，这些导弹的目标是“位于伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区属于犹太复国主义者的基地”，尽管伊拉克官员对这一说法提出了异议。哈吉扎德没有说明在这些行动中发射了哪种导弹的具体型号。埃尔比勒克尔曼距沙赫省约200英里，距西阿塞拜疆省约100英里。
与此同时，伊拉克向联合国安理会提出了针对伊朗的控告。
“捍卫民主基金会”智库（注：美国与CIA存在密切关系的智库）高级研究员贝纳姆·本·塔勒布卢向“战区”网站表示，由于几个原因，伊朗周一发动的打击行动具有重大的意义。
“这次行动有两个历史性的首次，”塔勒布卢，这位伊朗导弹技术方面的专家说。“这是“堡垒破坏者”中程弹道导弹的首次投入军事行动，也是伊朗首次在同一行动中针对两个不同国家的领土。” 他补充说，这还是自两伊战争以来伊斯兰革命卫队首次利用胡齐斯坦省的空军基地发射导弹。
The Iranian strike on Idlib was the first missile attack launched from the IRGC-AF facility in Khuzestan Province since the Iran-Iraq war. (Google Earth image)
伊朗对伊德利卜的袭击是两伊战争以来伊斯兰革命卫队首次利用胡齐斯坦省的空军基地发射导弹
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
以色列领土大部都在“堡垒破坏者”的射程范围内
The Kheibar Shekan is a two-stage, solid-propellant, truck-launched MRBM that Iran first unveiled on Feb. 9, 2022. A third generation of the Fateh family of ballistic missiles, Iran claims it has a maximum range of 1,450 kilometers (900 miles).
“Dubbed the ‘Breaker of Kheibar, in reference to early Muslim conquests of a Jewish castle in Arabia, the Kheibar Shekan is Iran’s second attempt at producing an MRBM from the Fateh- family (with the Shahid Haj Qassem being the first),” Talebu wrote in a February 2023 monograph. “With a reported range of 1,450 kilometers and a separating warhead, the Kheibar Shekan is Iran’s most advanced solid-propellant system outside the Sejjil, which was Iran’s first solid-propellant MRBM.”
During its unveiling, Hajizadeh said the weight of the new missile has been reduced by a third and it is six times quicker to launch, without identifying the type he was comparing it against, Jane's reported at the time. "He also said the missile is highly maneuverable in its terminal phase and that its warhead uses an explosive that is far more powerful than TNT."
He did not specify the weight of the warhead or which explosive. It is unknown what type of guidance system the weapon has but inertial navigation with embedded GPS is a given.
“堡垒破坏者”是一种两级构型、固体推进剂、车载机动发射的中程弹道导弹，伊朗于 2022 年 2 月 9 日首次披露了它。伊朗声称它是“征服者”系列弹道导弹的第三代，最大射程为 1450 公里（约900英里）。
塔勒布卢在其2023年2月发表的专题中写道。““堡垒破坏者”的命名来自于早期穆斯林征服阿拉伯地区的犹太城堡，它是伊朗第二次尝试以“征服者”导弹家族发展中程弹道导弹，“烈士沙希德·卡西姆”是第一次尝试（译注：即遭美军暗杀的卡西姆.苏莱曼尼）”， “据报道，“堡垒破坏者”的射程达1450 公里，配有分离式弹头，是伊朗除“泥石”导弹之外最先进的固发导弹，它也是伊朗第一种固发中程弹道导弹。”
据简氏当时的报道，哈吉扎德准将在揭幕仪式上表示，新导弹的重量减轻了三分之一，发射速度提高了六倍，但没有透露他用于比较的导弹型号。“他还表示，该导弹在其末端阶段具有高度机动性，其弹头使用的炸药威力远大于普通TNT炸药。”
他没有具体说明弹头质量或装药类型，也没有披露该导弹的制导系统采用的是何种类型，但可以肯定的是，它采用的是带有全球定位系统修正的惯性导航制导方式。
“Dubbed the ‘Breaker of Kheibar, in reference to early Muslim conquests of a Jewish castle in Arabia, the Kheibar Shekan is Iran’s second attempt at producing an MRBM from the Fateh- family (with the Shahid Haj Qassem being the first),” Talebu wrote in a February 2023 monograph. “With a reported range of 1,450 kilometers and a separating warhead, the Kheibar Shekan is Iran’s most advanced solid-propellant system outside the Sejjil, which was Iran’s first solid-propellant MRBM.”
During its unveiling, Hajizadeh said the weight of the new missile has been reduced by a third and it is six times quicker to launch, without identifying the type he was comparing it against, Jane's reported at the time. "He also said the missile is highly maneuverable in its terminal phase and that its warhead uses an explosive that is far more powerful than TNT."
He did not specify the weight of the warhead or which explosive. It is unknown what type of guidance system the weapon has but inertial navigation with embedded GPS is a given.
“堡垒破坏者”是一种两级构型、固体推进剂、车载机动发射的中程弹道导弹，伊朗于 2022 年 2 月 9 日首次披露了它。伊朗声称它是“征服者”系列弹道导弹的第三代，最大射程为 1450 公里（约900英里）。
塔勒布卢在其2023年2月发表的专题中写道。““堡垒破坏者”的命名来自于早期穆斯林征服阿拉伯地区的犹太城堡，它是伊朗第二次尝试以“征服者”导弹家族发展中程弹道导弹，“烈士沙希德·卡西姆”是第一次尝试（译注：即遭美军暗杀的卡西姆.苏莱曼尼）”， “据报道，“堡垒破坏者”的射程达1450 公里，配有分离式弹头，是伊朗除“泥石”导弹之外最先进的固发导弹，它也是伊朗第一种固发中程弹道导弹。”
据简氏当时的报道，哈吉扎德准将在揭幕仪式上表示，新导弹的重量减轻了三分之一，发射速度提高了六倍，但没有透露他用于比较的导弹型号。“他还表示，该导弹在其末端阶段具有高度机动性，其弹头使用的炸药威力远大于普通TNT炸药。”
他没有具体说明弹头质量或装药类型，也没有披露该导弹的制导系统采用的是何种类型，但可以肯定的是，它采用的是带有全球定位系统修正的惯性导航制导方式。
The Kheiber Shekan medium range ballistic missile and its transporter erector launcher (TEL) vehicle. (YouTube screencap)
“堡垒破坏者”中程弹道导弹及其运输起竖发射车
The launch of a Kheiber Skekan medium range ballistic missile. (Twitter screencap)
“堡垒破坏者”中程弹道导弹的发射瞬间
Taleblu said Iran served several purposes in launching the Kheiber Shekans.
They were testing the range of the missile while at the same time serving notice on Israel that it could hit targets there, he said. Iran was also sending a reminder that it remains an active participant in the ongoing conflict in Syria.
In addition to attacking targets in Iraq and Syria, "two key strongholds of the Jaysh al-Dhulm (Jeysh al-Adl) terrorist group in Pakistan" were struck on Tuesday, Tasnim reported. The sites "have been obliterated through precision missile and drone strikes."
The focal point of this operation "was the region known as Kouh-Sabz (green mountain) in the Balochistan province of Pakistan, recognized as one of the largest hubs for the Jeysh al-Dhulm militants," Tasnim reported. Jaish al Adl has previously mounted attacks on Iranian security forces in the border area with Pakistan.
The publication did not specify what types of drones or missiles were used in the attack. Nor did it say who carried out the attack, but Press TV, the English-language arm of Iranian state television, attributed the attack to Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, according to The Associated Press.
塔勒布卢表示，伊朗发射“堡垒破坏者”型导弹显然有如下几个目的，他们正在测试导弹的射程，同时向以色列表明，它的射程足以覆盖其国土内的目标。伊朗还想提醒所有人，它仍然是叙利亚持续冲突的积极参与者。
塔斯尼姆通讯社还宣布，除了对伊拉克和叙利亚的目标进行打击外，还于周二对位于巴基斯坦境内的“正义军”恐怖组织的两个重要据点进行了打击。这些地点“已被精确导弹和无人机攻击摧毁”。（译注：“正义军”成立于2012年，主要在伊朗东南部与巴基斯坦接壤的地区活动，其主要成员为俾路支族，政治目标为争取伊朗和巴基斯坦交界地区的俾路支斯坦独立，伊巴两国都将其列为恐怖主义组织。）
该通讯社报道称，这次打击行动的焦点是“位于巴基斯坦俾路支省一处被称为绿山的地区，该地区被认为是“正义军”武装分子最大的中心之一” 。“正义军”此前曾在与巴基斯坦接壤的边境地区向伊朗安全部队发动过袭击。
该通讯社没有具体说明打击中使用了哪些类型的无人机或导弹，也没有说明由谁实施了这次打击。但据美联社报道，伊朗国家电视台的英语频道Press TV宣布这次打击由伊斯兰革命卫队实施。
They were testing the range of the missile while at the same time serving notice on Israel that it could hit targets there, he said. Iran was also sending a reminder that it remains an active participant in the ongoing conflict in Syria.
In addition to attacking targets in Iraq and Syria, "two key strongholds of the Jaysh al-Dhulm (Jeysh al-Adl) terrorist group in Pakistan" were struck on Tuesday, Tasnim reported. The sites "have been obliterated through precision missile and drone strikes."
The focal point of this operation "was the region known as Kouh-Sabz (green mountain) in the Balochistan province of Pakistan, recognized as one of the largest hubs for the Jeysh al-Dhulm militants," Tasnim reported. Jaish al Adl has previously mounted attacks on Iranian security forces in the border area with Pakistan.
The publication did not specify what types of drones or missiles were used in the attack. Nor did it say who carried out the attack, but Press TV, the English-language arm of Iranian state television, attributed the attack to Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, according to The Associated Press.
塔勒布卢表示，伊朗发射“堡垒破坏者”型导弹显然有如下几个目的，他们正在测试导弹的射程，同时向以色列表明，它的射程足以覆盖其国土内的目标。伊朗还想提醒所有人，它仍然是叙利亚持续冲突的积极参与者。
塔斯尼姆通讯社还宣布，除了对伊拉克和叙利亚的目标进行打击外，还于周二对位于巴基斯坦境内的“正义军”恐怖组织的两个重要据点进行了打击。这些地点“已被精确导弹和无人机攻击摧毁”。（译注：“正义军”成立于2012年，主要在伊朗东南部与巴基斯坦接壤的地区活动，其主要成员为俾路支族，政治目标为争取伊朗和巴基斯坦交界地区的俾路支斯坦独立，伊巴两国都将其列为恐怖主义组织。）
该通讯社报道称，这次打击行动的焦点是“位于巴基斯坦俾路支省一处被称为绿山的地区，该地区被认为是“正义军”武装分子最大的中心之一” 。“正义军”此前曾在与巴基斯坦接壤的边境地区向伊朗安全部队发动过袭击。
该通讯社没有具体说明打击中使用了哪些类型的无人机或导弹，也没有说明由谁实施了这次打击。但据美联社报道，伊朗国家电视台的英语频道Press TV宣布这次打击由伊斯兰革命卫队实施。
Pakistan's Foreign Affairs Ministry also blamed Iran, issuing a sharp rebuke of the attacks it said killed two children and injured three others.
“Pakistan strongly condemns the unprovoked violation of its airspace by Iran which resulted in death of two innocent children while injuring three girls,” the statement read. “This violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty is completely unacceptable and can have serious consequences.”
While it is unclear what missiles Iran used to attack Pakistan, there is no mistaking that it has developed a large arsenal of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles.
The potential of Iranian-made ballistic missiles to cause significant destruction is in little doubt, with multiple instances of them having been employed in combat. In the last couple of years, such incidents have included the January 2020 attack against Al Asad Air Base in Iraq, which made use of a Qiam series short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), and the March 2022 attack on Erbil in Iraq, which used Fateh-110 SRBMs. These weapons hit very hard with an impressive degree of accuracy.
We do not know what, if any response nuclear-armed Pakistan will take yet. Clearly though, three Iranian missile attacks in three different countries over two days serve as a glaring deterrant and raises tensions in a regional already roiling over the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, Houthi attacks on shipping and Iranian-backed militia attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq and Syria.
We will continue to monitor this situation and upxe when warranted.
巴基斯坦外交部也就袭击事件对伊朗进行了严厉谴责，称袭击造成了两名儿童死亡、三人受伤。
巴基斯坦声明称：“巴基斯坦强烈谴责伊朗无端侵犯其领空，导致两名无辜儿童死亡、三名女孩受伤。”，“这种侵犯巴基斯坦主权的行为是完全不可接受的，可能会产生严重后果。”
虽然尚不清楚伊朗使用什么导弹来攻击巴基斯坦，但毫无疑问，它已经开发了大量的短程和中程弹道导弹。
毫无疑问，伊朗制造的弹道导弹具有造成重大破坏的潜力，在过去几年里，许多此类导弹已被用于实战。此类事件包括 2020年1月使用“起义”系列短程弹道导弹对美军驻伊拉克阿萨德空军基地发动的攻击，以及 2022年3月对伊拉克埃尔比勒发动的攻击，这些行动中使用了“起义”和“征服者-110”系列短程弹道导弹。这些武器表现出了强大的威力，而且其精确度给人留下了深刻的印象。
我们还不知道拥有核武器的巴基斯坦是否会做出反应。但很明显，两天内伊朗对三个不同国家发动的三次导弹打击起到了明显的威慑效果，并加剧了该地区的紧张局势，该地区已经因正在进行的以色列-哈马斯战争、胡塞对航运的袭击以及亲伊朗的民兵组织持续袭击美国在伊拉克和叙利亚基地而动荡不安。
我们将继续监控这一情况并在必要时进行更新。
“Pakistan strongly condemns the unprovoked violation of its airspace by Iran which resulted in death of two innocent children while injuring three girls,” the statement read. “This violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty is completely unacceptable and can have serious consequences.”
While it is unclear what missiles Iran used to attack Pakistan, there is no mistaking that it has developed a large arsenal of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles.
The potential of Iranian-made ballistic missiles to cause significant destruction is in little doubt, with multiple instances of them having been employed in combat. In the last couple of years, such incidents have included the January 2020 attack against Al Asad Air Base in Iraq, which made use of a Qiam series short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), and the March 2022 attack on Erbil in Iraq, which used Fateh-110 SRBMs. These weapons hit very hard with an impressive degree of accuracy.
We do not know what, if any response nuclear-armed Pakistan will take yet. Clearly though, three Iranian missile attacks in three different countries over two days serve as a glaring deterrant and raises tensions in a regional already roiling over the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, Houthi attacks on shipping and Iranian-backed militia attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq and Syria.
We will continue to monitor this situation and upxe when warranted.
巴基斯坦外交部也就袭击事件对伊朗进行了严厉谴责，称袭击造成了两名儿童死亡、三人受伤。
巴基斯坦声明称：“巴基斯坦强烈谴责伊朗无端侵犯其领空，导致两名无辜儿童死亡、三名女孩受伤。”，“这种侵犯巴基斯坦主权的行为是完全不可接受的，可能会产生严重后果。”
虽然尚不清楚伊朗使用什么导弹来攻击巴基斯坦，但毫无疑问，它已经开发了大量的短程和中程弹道导弹。
毫无疑问，伊朗制造的弹道导弹具有造成重大破坏的潜力，在过去几年里，许多此类导弹已被用于实战。此类事件包括 2020年1月使用“起义”系列短程弹道导弹对美军驻伊拉克阿萨德空军基地发动的攻击，以及 2022年3月对伊拉克埃尔比勒发动的攻击，这些行动中使用了“起义”和“征服者-110”系列短程弹道导弹。这些武器表现出了强大的威力，而且其精确度给人留下了深刻的印象。
我们还不知道拥有核武器的巴基斯坦是否会做出反应。但很明显，两天内伊朗对三个不同国家发动的三次导弹打击起到了明显的威慑效果，并加剧了该地区的紧张局势，该地区已经因正在进行的以色列-哈马斯战争、胡塞对航运的袭击以及亲伊朗的民兵组织持续袭击美国在伊拉克和叙利亚基地而动荡不安。
我们将继续监控这一情况并在必要时进行更新。
评论翻译
I am Mr.Satyre
1 day ago
"Clearly though, three Iranian missile attacks in three different countries over two days serve as a glaring deterrant..."
How does striking a nuclear-armed neighbor serve as a deterrent? Unless Iran announced that same day (which they didn't) that they are now also nuclear-armed, that would seem the epitome of stupid and the exact opposite of deterrent. ���
"显然，两天内伊朗对三个不同国家发动的三次导弹打击起到了明显的威慑效果......"
打击一个拥有核武器的邻国如何起到威慑作用？除非伊朗在同一天宣布（他们并没有）他们现在也拥有核武器，否则这似乎是愚蠢的举动，与威慑完全相反。
1 day ago
"Clearly though, three Iranian missile attacks in three different countries over two days serve as a glaring deterrant..."
How does striking a nuclear-armed neighbor serve as a deterrent? Unless Iran announced that same day (which they didn't) that they are now also nuclear-armed, that would seem the epitome of stupid and the exact opposite of deterrent. ���
"显然，两天内伊朗对三个不同国家发动的三次导弹打击起到了明显的威慑效果......"
打击一个拥有核武器的邻国如何起到威慑作用？除非伊朗在同一天宣布（他们并没有）他们现在也拥有核武器，否则这似乎是愚蠢的举动，与威慑完全相反。
Greentree7
15 hours ago
While the Iranians have shown the capability of reaching Israel with their missiles, the Israelis have the capability to reach Teheran not only with Jericho missiles fired from Israeli territory, but with cruise missiles fired from Dolphin submarines beneath the Persian Gulf. Israel can destroy Iran in one day with their nuclear arsenal, and so can Pakistan. It seems to me the Iranians are racing to build their atomic bomb sooner than later.
虽然伊朗人已经显示出具用导弹打击以色列的能力，但以色列人不仅有能力用从其领土内发射可以打击德黑兰的杰里科导弹，而且可以由潜伏于波斯湾水下的“海豚”级潜艇发射巡航导弹打击德黑兰。以色列可以用其核武库在一天内摧毁伊朗，巴基斯坦也有这个能力。在我看来，伊朗人一定正在争分夺秒地研制他们自己的原子弹。
15 hours ago
While the Iranians have shown the capability of reaching Israel with their missiles, the Israelis have the capability to reach Teheran not only with Jericho missiles fired from Israeli territory, but with cruise missiles fired from Dolphin submarines beneath the Persian Gulf. Israel can destroy Iran in one day with their nuclear arsenal, and so can Pakistan. It seems to me the Iranians are racing to build their atomic bomb sooner than later.
虽然伊朗人已经显示出具用导弹打击以色列的能力，但以色列人不仅有能力用从其领土内发射可以打击德黑兰的杰里科导弹，而且可以由潜伏于波斯湾水下的“海豚”级潜艇发射巡航导弹打击德黑兰。以色列可以用其核武库在一天内摧毁伊朗，巴基斯坦也有这个能力。在我看来，伊朗人一定正在争分夺秒地研制他们自己的原子弹。
Andrew Pearce
18 hours ago
Any high volume launch would mean Israel would nuke a major Iranian city
任何（针对以色列的）大规模发射都意味着以色列将用核弹轰炸伊朗的一个主要城市
18 hours ago
Any high volume launch would mean Israel would nuke a major Iranian city
任何（针对以色列的）大规模发射都意味着以色列将用核弹轰炸伊朗的一个主要城市
Ton Geen
23 hours ago
the reality is that we see the regime as a bunch of religious zealots, but that does not mean they are idiots or not capable to think further than a bomb vest.
the current situation is a carefully directed programme, 1st the 7/10 attacks, then the minor reaction from hezbollah, then the houti and now this.
the purpose is multiple, disrupt the normalisation of israel v arab ties, make people understand iran is a regional power and that region is far far larger than the gulf but basically extends from the mediteranian to deep in the indian ocean, and in the end telling israel that an attempt to attack iranian nuclear sits will result in a near peer war.
现实情况是，我们只是将伊朗人简单地视为一群宗教狂热分子，但这并不意味着他们是白痴，也不意味着他们没有能力比炸弹背包客思考得更远。
目前的局势是一个精心策划的计划，首先是10月7日对以色列的袭击，然后是真主党的轻度反应，然后是胡塞，最后就是这样。
（伊朗的）目的是多方面的，破坏以色列与阿拉伯国家的关系正常化，让人们明白伊朗是一个地区大国，而且这个范围远比海湾地区大，基本上从地中海一直延伸到了印度洋深处，最后是告诉以色列，袭击伊朗核设施的企图将导致一场近乎势均力敌的战争。
23 hours ago
the reality is that we see the regime as a bunch of religious zealots, but that does not mean they are idiots or not capable to think further than a bomb vest.
the current situation is a carefully directed programme, 1st the 7/10 attacks, then the minor reaction from hezbollah, then the houti and now this.
the purpose is multiple, disrupt the normalisation of israel v arab ties, make people understand iran is a regional power and that region is far far larger than the gulf but basically extends from the mediteranian to deep in the indian ocean, and in the end telling israel that an attempt to attack iranian nuclear sits will result in a near peer war.
现实情况是，我们只是将伊朗人简单地视为一群宗教狂热分子，但这并不意味着他们是白痴，也不意味着他们没有能力比炸弹背包客思考得更远。
目前的局势是一个精心策划的计划，首先是10月7日对以色列的袭击，然后是真主党的轻度反应，然后是胡塞，最后就是这样。
（伊朗的）目的是多方面的，破坏以色列与阿拉伯国家的关系正常化，让人们明白伊朗是一个地区大国，而且这个范围远比海湾地区大，基本上从地中海一直延伸到了印度洋深处，最后是告诉以色列，袭击伊朗核设施的企图将导致一场近乎势均力敌的战争。
McPherson_R
1 day ago
I've been surprised by Iran's progress in missile technology in the last few years. For Iran I suppose the 'secret' is that it has substantial revenues from selling oil to China. It can't buy components from the west but it can get them from China and Russia. From China's perspective this is good business and also a way of supporting Russia (and therefore damaging the democracies) without actually sending arms to Putin.
我对伊朗过去几年在导弹方面技术的进步感到惊讶。对伊朗来说，我想“秘密”是它从向中国出售石油中获得了可观的收入。它不能从西方购买零部件，但可以从中国和俄罗斯购买。从中国的角度来看，这是一笔好生意，也是一种支持俄罗斯（从而损害西方国家）而不用向普京提供实际武器援助的方式。
1 day ago
I've been surprised by Iran's progress in missile technology in the last few years. For Iran I suppose the 'secret' is that it has substantial revenues from selling oil to China. It can't buy components from the west but it can get them from China and Russia. From China's perspective this is good business and also a way of supporting Russia (and therefore damaging the democracies) without actually sending arms to Putin.
我对伊朗过去几年在导弹方面技术的进步感到惊讶。对伊朗来说，我想“秘密”是它从向中国出售石油中获得了可观的收入。它不能从西方购买零部件，但可以从中国和俄罗斯购买。从中国的角度来看，这是一笔好生意，也是一种支持俄罗斯（从而损害西方国家）而不用向普京提供实际武器援助的方式。
Shawn C
23 hours ago
Iran just set a new World record for simultaneously attacking:
Syria - a Russian client state
Iraq - an American client state
Pakistan - a Chinese client state
Plus, their Houthi proxies are taking on the world!
伊朗刚刚创造了同时进攻的新世界纪录：
叙利亚——俄罗斯的附庸国
伊拉克——美国的附庸国
巴基斯坦——中国的附庸国
此外，他们代理人的胡塞正在接管世界！
（译者：虽然他是胡扯，但还是注明一下，伊朗对上述三国打击的对象都是美国扶持的反政府武装，虽然小巴和伊拉克提出了抗议，但恐怕更多是形式上的。）
23 hours ago
Iran just set a new World record for simultaneously attacking:
Syria - a Russian client state
Iraq - an American client state
Pakistan - a Chinese client state
Plus, their Houthi proxies are taking on the world!
伊朗刚刚创造了同时进攻的新世界纪录：
叙利亚——俄罗斯的附庸国
伊拉克——美国的附庸国
巴基斯坦——中国的附庸国
此外，他们代理人的胡塞正在接管世界！
（译者：虽然他是胡扯，但还是注明一下，伊朗对上述三国打击的对象都是美国扶持的反政府武装，虽然小巴和伊拉克提出了抗议，但恐怕更多是形式上的。）
Fahad Zafar
1 day ago
As a Pakistani, I would like to say that Iran's action was irresponsible, stupid, highly condemnable and dangerous for the whole region.
And those who have misconception regarding Pakistan's stance and approach, let me clear it, and those who follow geopolitical news knows that, Pakistan in recent times shows a lot of restraint to misadventures by its neighbors.
Also for most of the people who have no understanding of the Baloch issue, its just like how ethnic Kurds are divided between Turkey, Iraq and Syria, same is the situation with the Baloch people divided between Pakistan (Balochistan state) and Iran (Sistan-Balochistan state). There is a separatist movement going on since decades on both sides of the border and each side has militant camps/safe havens that are used to attack the other side. But as I said, Pakistan shows restraint now and this is not how to conduct internationally because there are methods to doing it correctly.
作为一名巴基斯坦人，我想说，伊朗的行动是不负责任的、愚蠢的、应该受到严厉谴责的，对整个地区来说是危险的。
让我澄清一下，那些对巴基斯坦的立场和做法有误解的人，那些关注地缘政治新闻的人都知道，巴基斯坦最近对邻国的不幸事件表现出了很大的克制。
同样，对于大多数不了解俾路支问题的人来说，这就像库尔德人在土耳其、伊拉克和叙利亚之间闹分裂一样，俾路支人在巴基斯坦（俾路支省）和伊朗（锡斯坦-俾路支省）之间闹分裂也是如此。几十年来，两国的边境两侧都在进行同一场分离主义运动，两国都袭击对方领土上的武装分离主义分子的营地或避难所。但正如我所说，巴基斯坦现在表现出了强烈的克制，因为这不是国际上国家间开展交往的正确方法。
1 day ago
As a Pakistani, I would like to say that Iran's action was irresponsible, stupid, highly condemnable and dangerous for the whole region.
And those who have misconception regarding Pakistan's stance and approach, let me clear it, and those who follow geopolitical news knows that, Pakistan in recent times shows a lot of restraint to misadventures by its neighbors.
Also for most of the people who have no understanding of the Baloch issue, its just like how ethnic Kurds are divided between Turkey, Iraq and Syria, same is the situation with the Baloch people divided between Pakistan (Balochistan state) and Iran (Sistan-Balochistan state). There is a separatist movement going on since decades on both sides of the border and each side has militant camps/safe havens that are used to attack the other side. But as I said, Pakistan shows restraint now and this is not how to conduct internationally because there are methods to doing it correctly.
作为一名巴基斯坦人，我想说，伊朗的行动是不负责任的、愚蠢的、应该受到严厉谴责的，对整个地区来说是危险的。
让我澄清一下，那些对巴基斯坦的立场和做法有误解的人，那些关注地缘政治新闻的人都知道，巴基斯坦最近对邻国的不幸事件表现出了很大的克制。
同样，对于大多数不了解俾路支问题的人来说，这就像库尔德人在土耳其、伊拉克和叙利亚之间闹分裂一样，俾路支人在巴基斯坦（俾路支省）和伊朗（锡斯坦-俾路支省）之间闹分裂也是如此。几十年来，两国的边境两侧都在进行同一场分离主义运动，两国都袭击对方领土上的武装分离主义分子的营地或避难所。但正如我所说，巴基斯坦现在表现出了强烈的克制，因为这不是国际上国家间开展交往的正确方法。
Colonel Lingus
18 hours ago
Thank you for your detailed analysis, real life explanation such as yours Is invaluable in understanding the situation. Is there any major religious issues between the 2 countries besides the Baloch issue. I have always been impressed with Pakistan while at the same time sorry for their religious fanatics.
感谢您的详细分析，像您这样真实的解释对于了解实际局势是非常宝贵的。除了俾路支问题，两国之间还有什么重大的宗教问题吗？我一直对巴基斯坦印象深刻，同时也为他们那里的宗教狂热分子感到遗憾。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
18 hours ago
Thank you for your detailed analysis, real life explanation such as yours Is invaluable in understanding the situation. Is there any major religious issues between the 2 countries besides the Baloch issue. I have always been impressed with Pakistan while at the same time sorry for their religious fanatics.
感谢您的详细分析，像您这样真实的解释对于了解实际局势是非常宝贵的。除了俾路支问题，两国之间还有什么重大的宗教问题吗？我一直对巴基斯坦印象深刻，同时也为他们那里的宗教狂热分子感到遗憾。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Fahad Zafar
14 hours ago
"Is there any major religious issues between the 2 countries"
There is no religious animosity between both at the moment. Pakistan is a Sunni majority country (85-90%) while Shias amount to 10-15%. But as Iran has a leading role in the Shia world therefore Shias in Pakistan also have that religious connection with Iran. Pakistani and Irani people, however, have this cultural connection due to its proximity and historically Iran was the very first country to recognize Pakistan after its creation. However, this recent attack by Iran as per its explanation was on a Sunni militant Baloch group, so there is some sectarian element to it too.
"I have always been impressed with Pakistan while at the same time sorry for their religious fanatics."
Religious fanatics and mullahs are a problem plaguing both countries. The difference is that Pakistan does not have a theocracy in power (yet).
Fahad Zafar
14 hours ago
"Is there any major religious issues between the 2 countries"
There is no religious animosity between both at the moment. Pakistan is a Sunni majority country (85-90%) while Shias amount to 10-15%. But as Iran has a leading role in the Shia world therefore Shias in Pakistan also have that religious connection with Iran. Pakistani and Irani people, however, have this cultural connection due to its proximity and historically Iran was the very first country to recognize Pakistan after its creation. However, this recent attack by Iran as per its explanation was on a Sunni militant Baloch group, so there is some sectarian element to it too.
"I have always been impressed with Pakistan while at the same time sorry for their religious fanatics."
Religious fanatics are a problem plaguing both countries. The difference is that Pakistan does not have a theocracy in power (yet).
“两国之间有什么重大的宗教问题吗？”
目前两国之间并不存在宗教矛盾。巴基斯坦是逊尼派占多数的国家（85-90%），什叶派占10-15%。但由于伊朗在什叶派世界中发挥着主导作用，因此巴基斯坦的什叶派也与伊朗存在着宗教联系。然而，巴基斯坦人和伊朗人由于距离接近而在文化上有着密切的联系，而且从历史上看，巴基斯坦成立后第一个承认巴基斯坦的国家就是伊朗。不过，根据伊朗的解释，伊朗最近的这次袭击是针对逊尼派激进分子俾路支分离组织的，因此确实也有一些宗教因素。
“我一直对巴基斯坦印象深刻，同时也为他们的宗教狂热分子感到遗憾。”
宗教狂热分子是同时困扰着两国的一个共同问题。不同的是，巴基斯坦目前还没有（伊朗那种）宗教神权政治。
14 hours ago
"Is there any major religious issues between the 2 countries"
There is no religious animosity between both at the moment. Pakistan is a Sunni majority country (85-90%) while Shias amount to 10-15%. But as Iran has a leading role in the Shia world therefore Shias in Pakistan also have that religious connection with Iran. Pakistani and Irani people, however, have this cultural connection due to its proximity and historically Iran was the very first country to recognize Pakistan after its creation. However, this recent attack by Iran as per its explanation was on a Sunni militant Baloch group, so there is some sectarian element to it too.
"I have always been impressed with Pakistan while at the same time sorry for their religious fanatics."
Religious fanatics and mullahs are a problem plaguing both countries. The difference is that Pakistan does not have a theocracy in power (yet).
Fahad Zafar
14 hours ago
"Is there any major religious issues between the 2 countries"
There is no religious animosity between both at the moment. Pakistan is a Sunni majority country (85-90%) while Shias amount to 10-15%. But as Iran has a leading role in the Shia world therefore Shias in Pakistan also have that religious connection with Iran. Pakistani and Irani people, however, have this cultural connection due to its proximity and historically Iran was the very first country to recognize Pakistan after its creation. However, this recent attack by Iran as per its explanation was on a Sunni militant Baloch group, so there is some sectarian element to it too.
"I have always been impressed with Pakistan while at the same time sorry for their religious fanatics."
Religious fanatics are a problem plaguing both countries. The difference is that Pakistan does not have a theocracy in power (yet).
“两国之间有什么重大的宗教问题吗？”
目前两国之间并不存在宗教矛盾。巴基斯坦是逊尼派占多数的国家（85-90%），什叶派占10-15%。但由于伊朗在什叶派世界中发挥着主导作用，因此巴基斯坦的什叶派也与伊朗存在着宗教联系。然而，巴基斯坦人和伊朗人由于距离接近而在文化上有着密切的联系，而且从历史上看，巴基斯坦成立后第一个承认巴基斯坦的国家就是伊朗。不过，根据伊朗的解释，伊朗最近的这次袭击是针对逊尼派激进分子俾路支分离组织的，因此确实也有一些宗教因素。
“我一直对巴基斯坦印象深刻，同时也为他们的宗教狂热分子感到遗憾。”
宗教狂热分子是同时困扰着两国的一个共同问题。不同的是，巴基斯坦目前还没有（伊朗那种）宗教神权政治。
Ziv770
1 day ago
"Also for most of the people who have no understanding of the Baloch issue... "
Me raising my hand.
“对于大多数不了解俾路支问题的人来说……”
我就是其中一个。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
1 day ago
"Also for most of the people who have no understanding of the Baloch issue... "
Me raising my hand.
“对于大多数不了解俾路支问题的人来说……”
我就是其中一个。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Hossra
1 day ago
The Baloch issue is HUGE. I spent some time on the Afghan side of the area's "Tri-Border Area" -- no relation to the borders of Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil -- and it IS (from a Western perspective) truly ungoverned. Baluchis are nomads that move amongst and in between all three countries (and disliked by all three, in large part). Some parts of the USG had good relations with them. :)
俾路支问题影响巨大。我曾在这里的“三角地区”的阿富汗一侧呆过一段时间——当然与阿根廷、巴拉圭和巴西的三角边界无关——（从西方的角度看）这里真的不存在有效的政府组织。俾路支人是在这三个国家之间流动的游牧民族（在很大程度上，这三个国家都不怎么喜欢这个民族）。美国政府的一些部门与他们关系良好:)
1 day ago
The Baloch issue is HUGE. I spent some time on the Afghan side of the area's "Tri-Border Area" -- no relation to the borders of Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil -- and it IS (from a Western perspective) truly ungoverned. Baluchis are nomads that move amongst and in between all three countries (and disliked by all three, in large part). Some parts of the USG had good relations with them. :)
俾路支问题影响巨大。我曾在这里的“三角地区”的阿富汗一侧呆过一段时间——当然与阿根廷、巴拉圭和巴西的三角边界无关——（从西方的角度看）这里真的不存在有效的政府组织。俾路支人是在这三个国家之间流动的游牧民族（在很大程度上，这三个国家都不怎么喜欢这个民族）。美国政府的一些部门与他们关系良好:)
Fahad Zafar
1 day ago
This also brings up the question regarding the modernization of air defense network and systems by Pakistan. Just recently Pakistan Airforce just shared its promo video to highlight the modernization initiative that it is taking to improving the air force capabilities as well as air defense systems. Some of the main systems have been shown in the screen shot. The issue is that most of these systems will be employed on the border with India, but looking at the current scenario with Iran, those systems need to be employed on the eastern border along with Iran as well to avoid such future Iranian foolish outbursts. However, as always, the cost and the economic strain is the issue.
这也提出了巴基斯坦防空网络和系统现代化的问题。就在最近，巴基斯坦空军刚刚分享了其宣传视频，以强调其为提高空军能力和防空系统而采取的现代化举措。屏幕截图中显示了一些主要武器装备。问题是，这些武备中的大多数都被部署在与印度的边境，但从目前与伊朗的情况来看，这些系统也需要在与伊朗的东部边境部署，以避免未来伊朗还有可能的愚蠢举动。然而，一如既往，成本和经济压力才是问题所在。
1 day ago
This also brings up the question regarding the modernization of air defense network and systems by Pakistan. Just recently Pakistan Airforce just shared its promo video to highlight the modernization initiative that it is taking to improving the air force capabilities as well as air defense systems. Some of the main systems have been shown in the screen shot. The issue is that most of these systems will be employed on the border with India, but looking at the current scenario with Iran, those systems need to be employed on the eastern border along with Iran as well to avoid such future Iranian foolish outbursts. However, as always, the cost and the economic strain is the issue.
这也提出了巴基斯坦防空网络和系统现代化的问题。就在最近，巴基斯坦空军刚刚分享了其宣传视频，以强调其为提高空军能力和防空系统而采取的现代化举措。屏幕截图中显示了一些主要武器装备。问题是，这些武备中的大多数都被部署在与印度的边境，但从目前与伊朗的情况来看，这些系统也需要在与伊朗的东部边境部署，以避免未来伊朗还有可能的愚蠢举动。然而，一如既往，成本和经济压力才是问题所在。
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