核电项目为什么如此具有挑战性呢？低碳能源是避免能源短缺和实现气候目标的关键，但该项目常常遇到延误和预算超支的问题

Nuclear power is back in vogue. Government targets on net zero along with a desire for greater energy security after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have led to a surge in new projects around the world in recent years.

核电又开始流行起来了。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，各国政府提出了净零排放目标，并希望加强能源安全，这导致近年来世界各地的新建核电项目的数目激增。

But increasing nuclear energy capacity is not easy. Projects across the globe have been fraught with delays and budget overruns, with the Financial Times revealing last week that France is pressing the UK to help fill budget shortfalls at the Hinkley Point C project in England, being built by EDF.

但提高核能容量并非易事。全球范围内的核电项目普遍面临延误和预算超支问题，英国《金融时报》上周披露，法国正在向英国施压，要求其帮助填补由法国电力集团承建的英国欣克利角项目的预算缺口。

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says nuclear projects starting between 2010 and 2020 are on average three years late, even as it forecasts nuclear power generation will hit a record high next year and will need to more than double by 2050.

国际能源署表示，2010 年至 2020 年间启动的核电项目平均延迟了三年，尽管该机构预测明年核发电量将创历史新高，到 2050 年将需要翻一番多。

Technical issues, shortages of qualified staff, supply-chain disruptions, strict regulation and voter pushback are the key factors developers and governments are grappling with.

技术问题、合格员工短缺、供应链中断、监管严苛和选民的反对是开发商和政府正在努力应对的问题。

Nuclear generation is forecast to reach a record high by 2025
Electricity generation from nuclear by region, TWh

预计核能发电将在2025年达到历史新高
按地区划分的核能发电量，以太瓦时为单位

Technical and construction issues
When EDF confirmed last week that the Hinkley Point C nuclear plant in Somerset, England would be delayed by at least a further two years to 2029 at the earliest, it blamed technical problems: the complexity of installing electromechanical systems and intricate piping.

技术和施工问题
上周，法国电力公司证实，位于英国萨默塞特郡的欣克利角的核电站的竣工时间将再次推迟至2029年，也就是至少要延迟两年，法国电力公司将此归咎于技术问题：需要安装机电系统和复杂的管道。

EDF is hoping that building multiple projects at scale will help it overcome these technical issues, enabling it to learn by doing and resolve problems with design.

法国电力公司希望，大规模建设多个项目将帮助其克服这些技术问题，在实践中学习并解决设计中的问题。

In the US, Georgia Power is scheduled to complete work within weeks on the second of two gigantic new nuclear reactors that are at the vanguard of US plans to rebuild its nuclear energy industry.

在美国，乔治亚电力公司计划在几周内完成两座巨大新核反应堆中的第二座的建设工作，这两座反应堆是美国重建核能产业计划的标杆。

But the expansion of Plant Vogtle is seven years late and has cost more than double the original price tag of $14bn due to a series of construction problems, highlighting the complexity of nuclear megaprojects.

但由于一系列施工问题，沃格特尔核电站的扩建工程已经晚了七年，造价超过了原定的140亿美元的一倍，突显了大型核电项目的复杂性。

North America has the longest delays in nuclear power construction
Average planned vs realised construction time of nuclear power projects, years

北美核电建设的延误时间最长
核电项目计划与实际建设时间的平均值，单位为年

Government subsidies and geopolitics

政府补贴和地缘政治

These complexities, high costs and long build times — as well as strict regulation due to risks of nuclear accidents — make nuclear power a daunting prospect for many investors. As a result, the sector is heavily subsidised by governments. Many reactor suppliers for large-scale projects are state-owned, working alongside the private sector to build the full plant.

这些复杂因素、高昂成本和漫长的建设时间，以及由于核事故风险而导致的严格监管，使得核能发电项目让许多投资者望而却步。因此，该行业受到政府的大力补贴。许多大型项目的反应堆供应商都是国有企业，他们与私营部门合作建设整个核电站。

But countries also have a limit on how much they are willing to spend. EDF, now fully owned by the French state, will limit its stake in its next planned UK plant, Sizewell C, to 20 per cent.

但各国愿意投入的资金也很有限。法国电力集团现在完全由法国政府控制，它在英国下一个计划中的发电厂欣克利角的股份将被限制在 20%。

Many of the new reactors being built across the globe are being supplied by Russia and China, which brings them geopolitical bargaining power. Chinese and Russian reactors account for 70 per cent of those currently under construction, the IEA said.

全球正在建设的许多新反应堆都是由俄罗斯和中国提供的，这给它们带来了地缘政治上的议价能力。国际能源署说，中国和俄罗斯的反应堆占目前在建反应堆的 70%。

Russia’s Rosatom is supplying several new reactors for India’s Kudankulam nuclear power plant. India plans to triple its nuclear power by 2031 with 19 new reactors. But in the past the country has struggled to scale up its nuclear capacity, with projects beset by delays while foreign companies have been put off by strict liability rules.

俄罗斯国家原子能公司正在为印度库丹库拉姆核电站提供几个新反应堆。印度计划到 2031 年将其核能增加两倍，新建 19 座反应堆。但在过去，印度在扩大核电能力的方面举步维艰，项目延误不断，而外国公司则因严格的责任规定而望而却步。

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, which says it wants India to become the world’s third-largest atomic energy producer after the US and France, has sought to increase the financing available for projects and encourage investment in small modular reactors.

总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的政府表示希望印度成为继美国和法国之后世界第三大核能生产国，因此力图增加项目的融资，并鼓励投资小型模块反应堆。

China, India and Russia are leading the expansion of nuclear power capacity
Prospective nuclear power capacity by status, GW

中国、印度和俄罗斯正在引领核能产能的扩张
按状态划分的潜在核能产能，吉瓦

Some countries are facing voter pushback on nuclear power. In Japan, local political resistance to reopening nuclear reactors remains strong following the Fukushima disaster in 2011. The topic is also a political lightning rod in Australia after nuclear power was in effect outlawed in 1998 at a time of significant public opposition to uranium mining and nuclear testing.

一些国家正面临选民对核电的反对。在日本，2011 年福岛核事故后，当地民众对重开核反应堆的政治抵制依然强烈。在澳大利亚，核能问题也是一个政治敏感话题，自1998年实际上禁止核能以来，公众对铀矿开采和核试验持有强烈反对意见。

Uranium supply chain complications

铀供应链的复杂性
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Yet Australia is heavily involved in the nuclear supply chain as a major producer of uranium ore, which is essential to nuclear power generation.

然而，澳大利亚是核能供应链中的重要一环，作为主要的铀矿生产国，铀矿对核能发电至关重要。

Kazakhstan was the world’s largest miner of uranium in 2022, followed by Canada, Namibia and Australia, according to World Nuclear Association data. Political instability and production difficulties in Kazakhstan have pushed up prices and benefited rival producers in Australia in recent months.

根据世界核能协会的数据，2022年哈萨克斯坦是世界上最大的铀矿生产国，其次是加拿大、纳米比亚和澳大利亚。哈萨克斯坦的政治不稳定和生产的困难推高了铀矿的价格，并在最近几个月使竞争对手澳大利亚从中受益。
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Uranium enrichment supply chains are also fraught. Almost half the world’s commercial enrichment capacity is in Russia.

铀浓缩供应链也充满危机。全世界几乎一半的商业浓缩能力都在俄罗斯。

Russia dominates uranium enrichment worldwide
Global capacity, operational and planned (2020, mn SWU*)

俄罗斯在全球范围内主导铀浓缩
全球浓缩能力，运营中和计划中的（2020年，以百万SWU*为单位）

Countries such as the US and UK are now trying to break Russia’s dominance. In January, the British government said it would invest £300mn to develop UK production of Haleu, or high-assay low-enriched uranium, used in small modular reactors.

美国和英国等国正在努力削弱俄罗斯的主导地位。今年一月，英国政府表示将投资3亿英镑用于开发浓缩铀在英国地生产，该铀用于小型模块反应堆。

Global talent wars

全球人才争夺战

Stop-start investment in new nuclear plants in many countries has made it harder for the industry to develop experienced staff as well as iron out technical problems.

许多国家对新核电厂断断续续地投资使该行业更难培养经验丰富的员工，以及解决技术问题。

Finding engineers with the right skills is a particular problem. The closure of Japan’s reactors following the Fukushima disaster led to a slowdown in new engineers joining industrial conglomerates such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Hitachi.

找到拥有优秀技能的工程师是一个问题。日本在福岛核事故后关闭了反应堆，导致新工程师加入三菱重工和日立等工业集团的速度放缓。

France has said it needs 100,000 extra people in the sector, from welders to electricians, by 2030 and similar staffing issues have been noted elsewhere, including in the UK. “There’s a fight for talent in the whole energy sector,” said Linda Pålsson, head of energy at consultancy AFRY.

法国曾表示，到2030年，该行业需要增加10万名从焊工到电工的人才，而包括英国在内的其他国家也出现了类似的人员配置问题。"咨询公司 AFRY 的能源主管琳达-帕尔松说："整个能源行业都在争夺人才。

Future solutions

未来的解决方案
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Governments continue to try to entice the private sector to help. The US and Sweden have deployed state guarantees on developers’ financing to incentivise private sector support.

各国政府继续努力吸引私营企业的加入。美国和瑞典已经为开发商的融资提供了国家担保，以激励私营部门的支持。

Several private companies are involved in the race to develop new, smaller reactors that proponents hope can be built faster and cheaper than the large-scale nuclear projects under construction today. These range from the UK’s Rolls-Royce to US-based Westinghouse, owned by Canadian investment giant Brookfield alongside uranium supplier Cameco.

有几家私营公司参与了开发新型、小型反应堆的竞赛，支持者希望这些反应堆能比目前正在建设的大型核项目建造得更快、更便宜。这些公司包括英国的劳斯莱斯公司和美国的西屋公司，后者由加拿大投资巨头布鲁克菲尔德公司和铀供应商卡梅柯公司共同拥有。

Private investors, including Bill Gates and Open AI chief executive Sam Altman, are backing start-ups developing small modular reactors, the first of a new generation of nuclear reactors.

包括比尔·盖茨和Open AI首席执行官山姆·奥特曼在内的私人投资者正在支持初创公司开发小型模块反应堆，这是新一代核反应堆的初代产品。

Other countries are pursuing the political route. France has sought to position itself as one of the western world’s nuclear powers and has taken a lead in negotiating concessions for the sector within the EU.

其他国家则在寻求政治途径。法国力图将自己定位为西方世界的核大国之一，并率先在欧盟内部就核能领域的优惠政策进行谈判。

Successes have included getting more favourable treatment for atomic power in reforms aimed at attracting investment and winning carve-outs in an electricity reform to direct more state subsidies to existing nuclear power plants. Paris is also hoping to convince the European Investment Bank to finance the nuclear sector.

所取得的成功包括：在旨在吸引改革中为核电争取到更多优惠待遇，以及在电力改革中为现有核电厂争取到更多国家补贴。巴黎还希望说服欧洲投资银行为核电行业提供资金。

Ultimately, efforts to make the case for more nuclear power come at a time of huge change in the energy sector, with investment being poured into competing technologies such as renewables, hydrogen and batteries.

归根结底，能源行业发生的巨大变化，可再生能源、氢能和电池等技术不断获得投资的时候，我们正在努力为核能发展提供支持。

Budget blowouts and delays do little to reassure potential investors that nuclear is a sensible bet. For nuclear’s revival to endure, it will have to get both faster and cheaper.

预算超支和时间延误不能让潜在投资者相信核电是明智的选择。要使核能的复苏持久下去，核能发展既需要更快速，也需要更便宜。