专家表示,英国领取养老金的法定年龄将很快需要提高到71岁
2024-02-08 jiangye111 6725
正文翻译
UK state pension age will soon need to rise to 71, say experts
-Research on life expectancy and birthrates shows that ill health makes status quo unsustainable

专家表示,英国领取养老金的法定年龄将很快需要提高到71岁
——对预期寿命和出生率的研究表明,健康状况不佳使现状难以为继


(By age 70, only 50% of adults in England and Wales are now disability-free and able to work.)

(到70岁时,英格兰和威尔士只有50%的成年人身体自由、能够工作。)
新闻:

The retirement age will have to rise to 71 for middle-aged workers across the UK, according to research into the impact of growing life expectancy and falling birthrates on the state pension.

一项有关预期寿命延长和出生率下降对国家养老金影响的研究显示,英国各地中年工人的退休年龄将不得不提高到71岁。
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The UK pension age of 66 is set to rise to 67 between May 2026 and March 2028. From 2044, it is expected to rise to 68.

在2026年5月至2028年3月期间,英国的退休年龄将从66岁提高到67岁。预计从2044年起,这一数字将升至68。

But the research suggests that this is not enough, and that anyone born after April 1970 may have to work until they are 71 before claiming their pension.

但研究表明,这还不够,1970年4月以后出生的人可能要工作到71岁才能领取养老金。

This age limit may need to be set even higher, say experts, thanks to the high rate of workers exiting the workforce before they reach state pension age, predominantly due to preventable ill health.

专家表示,这个年龄限制可能需要设定得更高,因为在达到法定领取养老金年龄之前退出劳动力市场的工人比例很高,这主要是由于可预防的疾病。
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Les Mayhew, associate head of global research at the International Longevity Centre and author of the report State Pension Age and Demographic Change, said: “In the UK, state pension age would need to be 70 or 71 compared with 66 now, to maintain the status quo of the number of workers per state pensioner.

国际长寿中心全球研究副主管、《国家养老金年龄和人口变化》报告的作者莱斯·梅休表示:“在英国,国家养老金年龄需要从现在的66岁提高到70岁或71岁,才能维持每个国家养老金领取者对应的工作人数的现状。”

“But if you bring preventable ill health into the equation, that would have to increase even more,” added Mayhew, who is also professor of statistics at Bayes Business School and has advised the government on rises to the state pension age multiple times as a senior civil servant and in his current roles.

梅休补充道:“但如果你把可预防的疾病也考虑在内,那就不得不提高更多。”梅休也是贝叶斯商学院的统计学教授,在担任高级公务员和现任职务期间,曾多次建议政府提高领取国家养老金的年龄。
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By age 70, only 50% of adults in England and Wales are now disability-free and able to work. A smaller working population and a large economically inactive population reduces the tax base to pay for pensions – and creates huge labour shortages, which creates its own problems.

到70岁时,英格兰和威尔士只有50%的成年人身体自由,能够工作。劳动人口减少和大量不从事经济活动的人口减少了支付养老金的税基,并造成了巨大的劳动力短缺,从而产生了自身的问题。

According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, pensioner benefits will cost the UK government £136bn in 2023-24, of which £124bn will be spent on state pensions.

根据英国预算责任办公室的数据,2023- 2024年,养老金领取者福利将花费英国政府1360亿英镑,其中1240亿英镑将用于国家养老金。

Jonathan Cribb, associate director and head of retirement at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said that while he did not disagree with a higher pension age, increasing it without addressing other cost-saving measures was not “realistic or equitable”.

英国财政研究所副主任兼退休问题负责人乔纳森·克里布表示,尽管他不反对提高领取养老金的年龄,但在不解决其他节省成本措施的情况下提高退休年龄,是“不现实或不公平的”。

He added: “It would disproportionately impact poorer individuals whose ill-health means they have shorter lives, and so who receive pensions for less time.”

他补充说:“这将不成比例地影响较贫穷的个人,他们的健康状况不佳意味着他们的寿命较短,因此他们领取养老金的时间也较短。”

While the ILC’s solution is “illustrative of the kind of pressure that an ageing population puts on the public finance”, a rise in the retirement age to 71 was not a “realistic policy option unless you have a real emergency”, he added.

他补充说,尽管国际长寿中心的解决方案“说明了人口老龄化给公共财政带来的压力”,但将退休年龄提高到71岁并不是一个“现实的政策选择,除非你面临真正的紧急情况”。

Cribb pointed out that while state pensions and pension benefits are estimated to increase by £45bn by 2050, the pressure on public finance from health and social care is estimated to increase by £105bn in today’s terms over the same period. “The real issue is actually around the NHS and social care,” he said.

克里布指出,到2050年,国家养老金和养老金福利预计将增加450亿英镑,而同期来自卫生和社会保健的公共财政压力估计将以今天的价格水平增加1050亿英镑。他说:“真正的问题实际上是围绕国家医疗体系和社会关怀的。”

The Intergenerational Foundation, an independent thinktank, agreed that the pension age had to rise, but questioned on whose shoulders that cost should fall.

独立智库“代际基金会”同意提高领取养老金的年龄,但质疑应该由谁来承担这一成本。
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Younger people, their research has found, do not have the financial assets that their parents and grandparents did. In 2010, those under 40 held £7.53 of every £100 of wealth. By 2020, that had fallen to £3.98. One-third of the UK’s 14 million Gen-Xers are at high risk of retiring on insufficient income.

他们的研究发现,年轻人不像他们的父母和祖父母那样拥有金融资产。2010年,在每100英镑的财富中,40岁以下的人持有7.53英镑。到2020年,这一数字已降至3.98英镑。在英国1400万千禧一代中,有三分之一的人面临着以收入不足状态退休的高风险。

Angus Hanton, co-founder of the thinktank, said pension age should be based on life expectancy and occupation. He also supports a wealth tax to fund and pay more towards people’s retirement, and reducing income tax and national insurance.

该智库的联合创始人安格斯·汉顿表示,领取养老金的年龄应该基于预期寿命和职业。他还支持征收财富税,为人们的退休提供更多资金和支付,并减少所得税和国民保险。
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“The over-60s should finance their own extra retirement years since they have received such generous treatment from the state,” he said. “The money raised can be used to invest in improving the health and prospects of younger generations so they are less of an economic burden as they age.”

他说:“60岁以上的人应该为自己的额外退休生活筹钱,因为他们从国家得到了如此慷慨的待遇。增加的资金可以用于投资改善年轻一代的健康和前景,这样他们就不会随着年龄的增长成为经济负担。”

Andrew Scott, co-author of the 100-Year Life, whose new book, The Longevity Imperative, will be published shortly, said there needs to be a greater focus on preventing ill health not just in old age but from early age through adulthood.

《百岁人生》一书的合著者安德鲁·斯科特的新书《长寿的必要性》即将出版。他说,我们需要更加关注预防疾病,不仅是老年疾病,还包括从幼年到成年的疾病。

“Increasing the state pension age would be a terrible policy – a really bad way of attempting to make people more productive,” he said.

他说:“提高领取养老金的年龄将是一项糟糕的政策——一种试图提高人们生产力的糟糕方式。”

David Finch, assistant director at the Health Foundation, said increasing the state pension age without providing support for workers with health issues would worsen the situation by exacerbating existing health inequalities. “The government should provide more support for people already out of work due to health issues,” he said. “Employers can help by adapting roles and maintaining contact with employees on sick leave.”

健康基金会助理主任大卫·芬奇表示,提高领取国家养老金的年龄,而不为有健康问题的工人提供支持,将加剧现有的健康不平等,从而使情况进一步恶化。他说:“政府应该为那些因健康问题而失业的人提供更多支持。雇主可以通过调整角色和与请病假的员工保持联系来提供帮助。”

The government said it would ensure that the state pension remained “a sustainable and fair foundation of income for future generations”.

政府表示,它将确保国家养老金仍然是“子孙后代可持续和公平的收入基础”。

A spokesperson said: “We have committed £70m in employment and skills support for the over-50s, which has seen an extra 54,000 over-50s added to company payrolls. Our £2.5bn Back to Work plan is supporting people to stay fit and find work, in addition to £14.1bn to improve health services to help people live longer, healthier lives.”

一位发言人表示:“我们已经承诺为50岁以上的人提供7000万英镑的就业和技能支持,这使得企业工资单新增了5.4万名50岁以上的员工。我们25亿英镑的‘重返工作岗位’计划将支持人们保持健康并找到工作,此外还有141亿英镑用于改善医疗服务,帮助人们活得更长久、更健康。”

评论翻译
sarutakBlack Country
I'm sorry and I mean this with no offense to the elderly but at 71 you are just not a good worker for most jobs and would be very hard to justify employing, other than in specialised roles where you have gathered a career's worth of knowledge. Even then cognitive decline is so fast.
My grandparents were only 71 a couple of years ago and they weren't that different to how they are now. They would struggle immensely with any kind of physical work for a full day and can't fully keep up with modern technology enough that they wouldn't be a burden in a job. As the article states only 50% of people are without a disability by age 70. So I don't really know what would be expected of people when they hit that age?
When I think of how each generation since the boomers has less wealth and assets as well idk what the fuck most of the millennial and beyond generations are gonna do when they get too old to work if there's no state pension.

对不起,我这么说并不是要冒犯老年人,但71岁的你已经不适合做大多数工作了,并且很难证明你被雇佣是合理的,除非你在一些专业岗位上积累了职业生涯所需的知识。即便如此,认知能力的下降也是如此之快。
我的祖父母几年前才71岁,他们和现在没有太大的不同。他们会在一整天的体力劳动中挣扎,无法完全跟上现代科技的步伐使他们不会成为工作的负担。正如文章所说,只有50%的人在70岁之前身体自由。所以我真的不知道人们到了那个年龄会有什么指望?
当我想到自婴儿潮以来的每一代人的财富和资产都在减少时,我想知道,如果没有国家养老金,大多数千禧一代和以后的几代人太老了,不能工作了,他们该怎么办。

Quitchy
How about we fix the root cause issue, which is an aging population? Constantly raising the age of retirement is just slapping a plaster on a missing limb

不如我们解决根本问题,即人口老龄化怎么样?不断提高退休年龄就像在缺失的肢体上打石膏

SecureVillage
Indeed. We need to very quickly rethink our whole approach to how we support people having children.
We front-load all of our education to the point that it's typical to be studying until your mid twenties and by the time you've got settled in your first job, you're fast approaching 30. 30 is too late to be considering kids.
One idea I heard floated around was to get people into work earlier, and normalize a 1/2 year "sabbatical" in your mid twenties that is designed to allow home study and further education.
Normalize having a "gap" in your twenties in order to feasible raise kids without having to tank your career seems like a great idea.
Given that we're likely to be working for 50 years, there's not so much of a rush to get all of our education done ASAP.

确实。我们需要迅速重新思考我们支持人们生孩子的整个方式。
我们把所有的教育都放在了前面,以至于通常要学习到25岁左右,而当你找到第一份工作时,你很快就会接近30岁。30岁考虑生孩子已经太晚了。
我听到的一个想法是让人们更早地投入工作,在25岁左右的时候有半年标准化的“休假”,以便在家学习和继续深造。
在你二十多岁的时候有一段“空档期”,这样既可以抚养孩子,又不用毁了你的事业,这似乎是个好主意。
考虑到我们可能要工作50年,我们不用那么急着尽快完成所有的教育。

AncientNortherner
They can fuck right off.
My private pension retirement age was 50 when I started working. If this change comes in it will be 61. That's an increase of 1 year for every 3 I've worked.
Any young people want to start forecasting their retirement age?
For gen z that is going to be 70 to get your private pension and 80+ for your state. For millennials it's not much better, you'll be 67 for private pension and 77 for state.

他们可以马上去死了。
我开始工作时的私人养老金退休年龄是50岁。如果这个改革实施了,它将变成61岁。也就是说,我每工作3年,就要额外多工作1年。
有没有年轻人想开始预测自己的退休年龄的?
对于Z世代来说,要到70岁才能拿到私人养老金,80岁以上才能拿到国家养老金。对于千禧一代来说,情况也好不到哪里去,你将在67岁时领取私人养老金,77岁时领取国家养老金。

ResponsibilityRare10
Seems like an inevitability at this point. The retiree population is massive and growing, and along with it the population of people needing long term heath & social care.
Workers, let alone those with the skills we need, are becoming more in demand, and will do increasingly. The government have decided on big net migration to plug the gaps (whilst speaking out the other side of their mouths), but that is becoming increasingly politically unacceptable.
Mix into that a sustained attack on living standards to feed the returns of the super rich and you have a nation that will struggle to be functional in the coming century.

提高退休年龄似乎是不可避免的。退休人员数量庞大,而且还在不断增长,随之而来的是需要长期健康和社会护理的人口。
工人,更不用说那些拥有我们需要的技能的人,正变得越来越受欢迎,而且会越来越受欢迎。政府已经决定通过大量的净移民来填补缺口(与此同时却在嚷嚷相反的说法),但这在政治上正变得越来越不可接受。
再加上对生活水平的持续打击,以养活超级富豪的回报(劫贫济富),你会看到一个在未来一个世纪难以正常运转的国家。

SecTeff
This wouldn’t pass in France as people would lose their minds over it and protest and rage. Unless we start getting angry about stuff like this and making a fuss they will just keep treating us like mugs

这种事在法国是不会通过的,因为人们会为此失去理智,抗议和愤怒。除非我们也开始对这样的事情生气,小题大做,否则他们会一直把我们当软柿子一样对待

Emotional_Menu_6837
As someone correctly pointed out, people may be living longer (up till recently anyway) but that extra life is not of the same quality as <60.
Most people aren't going to be able to afford to stop working but they're also not going to be able to carry on working at a level that creates enough to live off. So what's going to happen? They're either going to have to just die or just get money from the state in a different way, so this is ultimately pretty pointless.
Ultimately this is all unaffordable though in its current form. An aging population and reducing workers to pay for it is a recipe for disaster. Society is going to have to fundamentally change at some point in the next couple of decades even without accounting for climate change.

正如有人正确指出的那样,人们可能会活得更长(至少直到最近),但这种额外的寿命与60岁之前的寿命的质量是不一样的。
大多数人都不能停止工作,但他们也无法继续保持能创造足够的生活水平的工作程度。那么会发生什么呢?他们要么死亡,要么以另一种方式从国家得到钱,所以这最终是毫无意义的。
最终,这一切都是负担不起的,尽管以目前的形式。人口老龄化和劳动力减少是灾难的根源。即使不考虑气候变化,在未来几十年的某个时候,社会也将不得不发生根本性的变化。

MurkySalamander106
Okay, how about making sure that more people go back to work so they would pay taxes? Im a dual citizen, in my other country, if you are unemployed, you get jobseeker's allowance for 3 months. If you are serious about finding a job, 3 months is enough. If this country doesn't restructure everything, it's just going to get worse.
Also, a lot of people work in physical jobs, not everyone sits at a desk. How's this fair? If I see 70 year old Doris trying to lift boxes, I can't just let her can I? But then, if she gets the same salary, I should just let her do her job?
I know Im going to be downvoted as the British way is the only way but it clearly doesn't work anymore.

好吧,如何确保更多的人重返工作岗位,这样他们就会纳税?我有双重国籍,在我的另一个国家,如果你失业了,你会得到3个月的求职者津贴。如果你真的想找工作,3个月时间足够了。如果这个国家不调整一切,情况只会变得更糟。
而且,很多人都从事体力工作,并不是每个人都坐在办公桌前。这合理吗?如果我看到70岁的多丽丝在搬箱子,我不能让她搬,对吧?但是,如果她得到的是同样的薪水,那我应该让她做她的工作吗?
我知道我会被踩,因为“英国方式”是唯一的方式,但它显然已经行不通了。

ThrowRA1111111332
Average life expectancy in the UK is about 81 years.
Life expectancy in Glasgow is about 72 years.
Vote the tories out. Keep them out. Fix the economy. Fix social amenities. Encourage healthy living.

英国人的平均预期寿命约为81岁。
格拉斯哥人的平均寿命约为72岁。
投票让保守党下台。让他们滚蛋。修复经济。修复社交设施。鼓励健康生活。

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BeersTeddy
Imagine being a builder, plumber, bricky, roofer, plasterer, and still doing your job at the age of 70. 25kg bag of plaster on your should and up the stairs mate.
I'm not in to privileges for an specific group but this is clearly flawed a bit.

想象一下,你是一名建筑工人、水管工、瓦工、屋顶工、抹灰工,在70岁的时候还在做你的工作。25公斤的石膏包扛在你的肩膀上,然后上楼,伙计。
我不喜欢特定群体的特权,但这显然是有一点缺陷的。

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Tyler119
Based on my age I'm sure some report had my retirement likely be 76 years old. Work till you die.

根据我的年龄来看,我敢肯定有报道说我的退休年龄可能是76岁。工作到死。

flamingunicorn098
Realistically, this changes very little for me, I am fully aware I won't retire until I am 70. It's the next generation that is truly screwed. More than likely, by the time I am retired, that generation will be lucky if there is a retirement age at all, and if there is, it's probably going to be 85 or above.

实际上,这个改革对我来说影响很小,我很清楚我要到70岁才会退休。真正倒霉的是下一代。更有可能的是,到我退休的时候,如果还有“退休年龄”的话,那一代人将会很幸运,如果有的话,很可能是85岁或以上。

synth003
And they'll keep fucking us as long as everyone allows it.

只要大家都同意这个改革,他们就会继续Cao我们。

00roast00
Always money for war, but nothing for people who spend their whole life contributing to society.

总是有钱用于战争,却没有钱用于为社会做贡献的人。

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