经济学家警告称,英国公共服务将在计划中的开支削减下陷入困境
2024-03-01 jiangye111 3205
正文翻译
UK public services will buckle under planned spending cuts, economists warn
-Chancellor is considering cutting billions more from public spending to pay for reductions in tax or NI

经济学家警告称,英国公共服务将在计划中的开支削减下陷入困境
——财政大臣正在考虑从公共支出中再削减数十亿美元,以抵消税收削减或支付国民保险制度

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(Jeremy Hunt is preparing for another round of tax reductions in next week’s budget.)

(杰里米·亨特正在为下周预算中的新一轮减税做准备。)
新闻:

Britain’s stretched public services will buckle under the weight of the spending cuts being planned for after the election, economists have warned, as Jeremy Hunt prepares for another round of tax reductions in next week’s budget.

经济学家警告称,英国紧张的公共服务将在大选后计划的削减开支的重压下崩溃,而杰里米·亨特正准备在下周的预算中实施新一轮减税。

Experts say the level of public sector spending pencilled in for the next parliament would mean cuts equivalent to those undertaken by David Cameron’s government from 2010 to 2015. Some have warned the next government will not be able to implement them, and will be forced either to raise taxes or borrow more to fund emergency spending.

专家表示,下一届议会的公共部门支出水平将意味着削减相当于戴维·卡梅伦政府2010年至2015年的削减幅度。一些人警告说,下一届政府将无法实施这些措施,并将被迫提高税收或借入更多资金来为紧急支出提供资金。

The stark warnings come as the chancellor considers cutting billions more from his public spending plans to pay for further reductions in either income tax or national insurance at next week’s budget. Last week the Resolution Foundation calculated such a move would mean taking a fifth out of budgets for certain departments across the parliament, sparking concern among economists, trade unxs and even some Conservatives.

上述严厉警告发出之际,正值财政大臣考虑在下周的预算中,从公共支出计划中再削减数十亿美元,以抵消所得税的进一步削减或支付国民保险。上周,决议基金会计算出,此举将意味着英国议会某些部门的预算将被削减五分之一,这引发了经济学家、工会甚至一些保守党人的担忧。

James Smith, research director at the thinktank, said: “We are essentially returning to austerity levels of cuts in terms of the implied spending cuts.”

该智库的研究主管詹姆斯·史密斯表示:“就隐含的支出削减而言,我们基本上正在回到紧缩状态的削减水平。”

Referring to the possibility of reducing spending plans even further to pay for steeper tax cuts at the budget, Smith added: “We are talking about going from one set of undeliverable spending plans to something that is worse. How could we take 20% out of the justice budget, for example? It is extremely difficult.”

在谈到进一步削减支出计划以抵消预算中更大幅度减税的可能性时,史密斯补充说:“我们正在谈论从一套无法实现的支出计划转向更糟糕的计划。比如,我们怎么能从司法预算中削减20%呢?这非常困难。”

Stuart Hoddinott, a senior researcher at the Institute for Government, said: “The current state of public services are generally pretty poor across the board. If any government was to try and implement these spending plans, they would lead to a deterioration in performance that would be unacceptable to any government.”

政府研究所的高级研究员斯图尔特·霍迪诺特说:“目前公共服务的状况总体上很差。如果任何政府试图实施这些支出计划,就会导致绩效恶化,这对任何政府来说都是不可接受的。”

Hunt announced a 2p cut to national insurance at the autumn statement last year, with public spending forecast to rise 1% above inflation each year over the next parliament as a result.

亨特在去年的秋季声明中宣布削减2个百分点的国民保险,结果,在下一届议会中,公共支出预计每年将比通货膨胀率高出1%。

However, much of that money will be taken up by just a few departments where spending is protected.

然而,这些钱中的大部分将被少数几个支出受到保护的部门占用。

They include health, where both the government and the Labour party have signed up to a plan to recruit more staff, which would mean budget increases of 3.6% a year. Defence is also protected, given Britain’s commitment to meet the Nato target of spending 2% of GDP on defence, as is international aid, which has to remain at at least 0.5% of gross national income.

其中包括医疗保健,政府和工党都签署了一项计划,招聘更多的员工,这意味着预算每年增长3.6%。国防支出也受到保护,因为英国承诺达到北约的目标——将GDP的2%用于国防,国际援助也必须保持至少占国民总收入的0.5%。

As a result, unprotected departments are likely to face swingeing cuts across the next five years unless the next government raises taxes or borrows more. The departments likely to face heavy spending reductions include justice, local government and the Home Office.

因此,除非下一届政府提高税收或增加借贷,否则不受保护的部门很可能在未来五年内面临大幅削减。可能面临大幅削减开支的部门包括司法、地方政府和内政部。

The Labour party is planning to relieve some of the spending pressure with particular tax rises, such as ending the non-dom regime, which will raise money to pay for more weekend and evening GP appointments, among other things. Apart from those one-off schemes, however, the shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has ruled out raising income or wealth taxes to fund daily departmental spending.

工党正计划通过特别增税来减轻一些支出压力,比如结束非户籍制度,这将筹集资金来支付更多的周末和晚上的全科医生预约开销,以及其他事情。然而,除了这些一次性计划,影子财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯已经排除了提高所得税或财产税以资助部门日常支出的可能性。
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Unlike in 1997 or 2010, however, the next government will take office with public services already at breaking point.

然而,与1997年或2010年不同,下届政府将在公共服务已经处于崩溃边缘的情况下上台。

In the justice system, for example, the crown court case backlog for England and Wales stood at 64,709 by last June – more than 50% higher than three years previously. In 2022 it took an average of 379 days to process an offence from it being committed to the end of a trial, up from 251 days in 2019.

比如,在司法系统中,截至去年6月,英格兰和威尔士的刑事法庭案件积压达64709件,比三年前高出50%以上。2022年,从犯罪开始到审判结束平均需要379天,高于2019年的251天。

In local government, eight English councils have in effect declared themselves bankrupt since 2018 and a fifth of local authorities believe they are likely to go bust over the next year.

在地方政府方面,自2018年以来,已有8个英格兰地方议会宣布破产,五分之一的地方当局认为它们可能在明年破产。

Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics, said: “The problem is that this comes on the back of large real-terms cuts for those departments from 2010 to 2015 and quite restrained spending since then. Efficiency savings have long since been exhausted – you’re now really talking about choosing which services not to provide any more.”

牛津经济研究院首席英国经济学家安德鲁·古德温表示:“问题在于,2010年至2015年,这些部门的实际支出大幅削减,此后支出相当有限。效率节约早已耗尽——你现在真正讨论的是选择不再提供哪些服务。”

Public sector unxs have begun to sound the alarm about the cuts to come. Christina McAnea, the general secretary of Unison, said: “Public services are in the last chance saloon. Years of underfunding mean they’re already close to collapse and slashing spending further still is the last thing anyone needs.”

公共部门工会已经开始对即将到来的削减敲响警钟。工会秘书长克里斯蒂娜·麦卡尼亚说:“公共服务是最后的机会。多年的资金不足意味着它们已经接近崩溃,进一步削减开支仍然是任何人最不需要的。”

But some Conservatives are also concerned about whether the plans are possible to deliver. Lord Deben, the former Tory chair, told the Observer last weekend: “The priority for most people at the moment is to improve public services to make sure that those who are least well off are looked after and to make it more attractive to work.”

但一些保守党人也担心这些计划是否有可能实现。前保守党主席德本勋爵上周末告诉《观察家报》:“目前大多数人的首要任务是改善公共服务,以确保那些最不富裕的人得到照顾,并使工作更具吸引力。”

In a letter on Monday, the party’s One Nation caucus urged the chancellor to prioritise measures to help young parents, workers and students, including a multi-year settlement for childcare.

在周一的一封信中,该党的One Nation党团敦促财政大臣优先考虑帮助年轻父母、工人和学生的措施,包括一项为期多年的儿童保育协议。

The group, which has 107 Tory MPs registered with it, recommended eight policies including capping interest rates on student loans to the average rate commercially available, introducing a levy on foreign owners of vacant luxury flats, and abolishing stamp duty for house buyers who are downsizing.

有107名保守党议员注册的该党团提出了8项政策建议,包括将学生贷款利率限制在商业上可获得贷款的平均利率,对空置豪华公寓的外国业主征税,以及取消对正在缩小规模的购房者征收的印花税。

The group also said the chancellor should cut direct taxes for working people and introduce reforms to tax all income at the same rate, whether it comes from earnings, dividends or benefits.

该组织还表示,财政大臣应该削减工薪阶层的直接税,并引入改革,对所有收入征收相同的税率,无论是来自收益、股息还是福利。

Damian Green, chair of the caucus, said: “This is our chance to demonstrate to voters that we are on their side and that we are taking steps to alleviate pressures they face in all aspects of everyday lives.”

党团会议主席达米安·格林表示:“这是我们向选民表明我们站在他们一边的机会,我们正在采取措施减轻他们在日常生活的方方面面所面临的压力。”

评论翻译
Kleptokilla
They just want it to fail so they can justify privatising the NHS, knowing they can’t do it openly, it would kill the party even more than they’re doing to themselves already. The only saving grace is they’ll be out of power soon and any damage can start to be reversed

他们只是想让其失败,这样他们就可以证明将国家医疗体系私有化是合理的,他们知道他们不能公开这样做,这将比他们已经对自己造成的伤害更严重地扼杀本党。唯一值得庆幸的是,他们很快就会下台,任何损害都可以开始逆转

Id1ing
I'm not sure how truthfully. The level of funding required is going to either require huge cuts to anything non-essential or significant tax rises which will just exacerbate the economic situation.
Without some serious economic growth we are up shits creek, but the productivity puzzle has no obvious solutions.
If you're expecting a large turnaround under Labour, be prepared to be disappointed. Not that it's their fault, the task is nearing impossible. It's very possibly going to get worse as the ageing population bites harder over the next couple of decades.

我不确定有多真实。所需的资金水平要么需要大幅削减不必要的开支,要么需要大幅增税,这只会加剧经济形势。
如果没有一些真正的经济增长,我们就会陷入困境,但生产率难题没有明显的解决方案。
如果你期待工党领导下的经济会有大的好转,那就做好失望的准备吧。这不是他们的错,这项任务几乎是不可能完成的。随着未来几十年人口老龄化的加剧,情况很可能会变得更糟。

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HorseFacedDipShit
True, but I can’t even imagine where the cleanup will begin.
We need to invest in pretty much every area of public service. Housing, healthcare, infrastructure, roads, transport, energy. Billions on billions of pounds will be needed to spur any type of real recovery.
Where’s the money going to come from though? Levels of long term sick are higher than they’ve ever been among 20 somethings. Productivity in general has torpedoed since the 2000s. Borrowing costs are through the roof compared to 10 years ago.
I have no idea how labour will be able to manage the scale of change needed while working within the constraints of current markets.

没错,但我甚至无法想象从哪里开始收拾。
我们需要在公共服务的几乎每一个领域进行投资。住房、医疗、基础设施、道路、交通、能源。要刺激任何形式的真正复苏,都需要数十亿英镑。
那么钱从哪里来呢?在20多岁的人群中,患长期疾病的比例比以往任何时候都要高。自2000年代以来,生产率总体上大幅下滑。与10年前相比,借贷成本飙升。
我不知道,在当前市场的约束下,劳动力怎么才能够管理所需的大规模变革。

Right-Ad-3834
We have only had cuts since Thatcher era. NHS, roads, railways… to name some. Privatisation, when reforms were needed, killed everything. They said Service Industry will keep UK, Inc afloat and thanks to technology, it got outsourced. Gift of the gab, lack of vision, and arrogance wrote our future; wholesale loot for some and ‘cost of living’ for the rest who had to effectively fund the fight against ‘inflation’ to get rewarded with ‘recession’.

自撒切尔时代以来,我们只进行过削减。国家医疗体系、公路、铁路等等。在需要改革的时候,私有化扼杀了一切。他们说服务业将使英国公司维持下去,并且多亏了技术进步,它被外包了。能言善辩、缺乏远见和傲慢书写了我们的未来;对一些人来说,这是掠夺盛筵,而对另一些人来说,这是“生活成本”——他们被迫有效地为对抗“通货膨胀”提供资金,以换取“经济衰退”。

seifmeister
Yeah, but people only go out protesting if its for this Palestinian bullshit.
Go out protesting to "free" whatever is thousands of miles away, and on your way home stop by the food Bank if you want diner for your kids.
Government sends millions to Ukraine for "support" ,energy companies makes record profits... ah, nevermind..... This isn't even worth the typing.
Not advocating for violence, but British people seem to have the priorities upside down.
Your country is spiraling down and no one seem to care... I'm an EU citizen living here for the past 13years and this is very sad to see....

是的,但是人们只会为了巴勒斯坦人的扯淡而去抗议。
出去抗议“解放”任何远在千里之外的东西,在回家的路上,如果你想解决你孩子的下顿饭,可以顺便去食品银行。
政府向乌克兰发送数百万美元“援助”,能源公司获得创纪录的利润……啊,别介意……这根本不值得你评论。
我不是提倡暴力,但英国人似乎把事情的轻重缓急颠倒了。
你们的国家正在走下坡路,但是似乎没有人关心……我是一名欧盟公民,在这里生活了13年,看到这些我很难过……

DJOldskool
Palestinian bullshit.
30,000 people slaughtered by a country we set up and still support unconditionally. 2 million people being intentionally starved.
I wonder if you would also call the holocaust "Jewish bullshit"?

“巴勒斯坦人的扯淡”
3万人被我们一手建立并无条件支持的国家屠杀。200万人被故意饿死。
我想知道你是否也会把大屠杀称为“犹太人的扯淡”?

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seifmeister
You see the issue right here. All you commented is the initial part referring to a conflict far away that does not really affect the quality of live here.
You don't seems to upset with your own children living in poverty, hard working parents have to go to the food Bank to eat and feed their kids.
The breakdown of public services due to cuts from this government, that rather fuel another conflict.
Thousands of people take to the streets every weekend for something that will never change, but when it comes to raise your voices for something that affects your own, you stay quiet

你看到这里的问题了。你所评论的只是开头部分,一场遥远的冲突,并没有真正影响这里的生活质量。
你似乎不为自己的孩子生活贫困而烦恼,努力工作的父母不得不去食物银行吃饭和喂养他们的孩子。
这届政府削减开支导致公共服务的崩溃,反而会引发另一场冲突。
每个周末,成千上万的人为了一些永远不会改变的事情走上街头,但当涉及到为影响你们自己的事情发出声音时,你们会保持沉默

ashleyman
Highest tax burden. More cuts. Where is the money going?

最高的税负。更多的削减。钱都到哪里去了?

DJOldskool
Private profits.
Also we pay a lot of tax but the rich do not, seeing as we have had the biggest transfer of wealth to the rich since the 1800's, this is a massive problem.
When average people get money they spend most of it, this keeps it flowing round the economy. When a rich person gets money they invest the vast majority of it. Due to not paying taxes this is not good. It is even worse in a bad economy because they do not invest in business, they buy up assets. There is a reason why young people cannot afford houses yet the house prices continue to rise.

变成了私人利润。
此外,我们缴纳了很多税,但富人却没有。鉴于我们经历了自19世纪以来最大的财富向富人转移,这是一个巨大的问题。
当普通人拿到钱时,他们会花掉大部分钱,这使钱在经济中流动。当一个富人有钱时,他们会把绝大部分钱用于投资。由于不纳税,这不是好事。在经济不景气的情况下,情况会更糟,因为他们不投资商业,而是收购资产。年轻人买不起房子是有原因的,而房价却在不断上涨。

SuperGuy41
Seems that only those with private healthcare will live to retirement age

似乎只有那些拥有私人医疗的人才能活到退休年龄。

jeffereeee
I think it’s 8 councils that are facing bankruptcy, pretty sure our services are already buckling. But let’s give the boomers a tax break shall we.

我认为有8个地方议会正在面临破产,很确定我们的服务已经岌岌可危。但让我们给婴儿潮一代减税,好吗?
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jake_burger
Private healthcare isn’t even very good, they don’t cover everything, you end up in an NHS hospital most of the time and if anything goes wrong they dump you on NHS A&E.
There is no private healthcare system in this country, it’s just “NHS fast track”.
If the NHS completely fails then there will be nothing.

私人医疗保健甚至不是很好,它们不涵盖所有方面,你最终大部分时间都在国家医疗体系医院里,如果出了什么问题,他们就把你扔到国家医疗体系急诊室。
这个国家没有私人医疗保健系统,只有“国家医疗体系快速通道”。
如果国家医疗体系完全失败,那就什么都没有了。

SuperTekkersBrum
Can someone explain to me why higher government spending is seen as good for the economy and cutting costs is seen as bad?

有人能给我解释一下,为什么增加政府开支被认为对经济有利,而削减成本被认为是有害的?
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CredibleCranberry
Cutting costs is seen as bad when the services the money is supporting are already collapsing and unable to perform their role effectively. Seems pretty simple to me?
Nobody wants a less reliable health system. Nobody wants to imagine they will die because a paramedic isn't able to arrive on time due to cuts.

当资金支持的服务已经崩溃,无法有效发挥作用时,削减成本被认为是不好的。我觉得很简单吧?
没有人想要一个不可靠的卫生系统。没有人愿意想象他们会因为医护人员由于削减而无法按时到达而死亡。

InterestingCode12
Either public services will buckle or the tax payer will.
Pick one.
Personally I go with the former. Bloated bureaucracy needs to be made lean.

要么公共服务部门让步,要么纳税人让步。
二选一。
我个人选前者。臃肿的官僚机构需要精简。

Dramyre92
I'm sure the tax payers who will be out a job will be happy to be paying less tax.

我相信那些将要失业的纳税人会很高兴缴纳更少的税的。

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