QA:如果乌克兰士兵不足,波兰会加入进来(因为他们与俄罗斯有过节),帮助乌克兰将俄罗斯人赶走吗?
2024-03-02 童言无忌 6245
正文翻译

If Ukraine runs low on soldiers, will Poland join in (since they have a bone to pick with Russia) and help Ukraine to push the Russians out?

如果乌克兰士兵不足,波兰会加入进来(因为他们与俄罗斯有过节),帮助乌克兰将俄罗斯人赶走吗?

评论翻译
Derek Mazur
In short: No.
As much as they might want to they are a part of NATO which means that they do not act alone.
There is a joint action component to this defensive / offensive alliance, i.e. NATO.
If they went to war on their own then it would be an illegal action without the backing of NATO allies so no, Poland would not join in unless Article 5 was invoked, most conventionally triggered by they or another NATO ally being attacked, dragging the entirety of 31 nations including the USA into war against the opposing nation. Poland would not risk standing alone as losing NATO support is entirely not worth it politically, economically, and militarily. This is what makes NATO mighty and feared by Russia. As you can see, not even Ukraine, a diluted NATO proxy state by current standards, was able to be conquered by Russia. Imagine if they tried to invade a proper NATO country and face the might of 31 of the most developed and powerful militaries on the planet at once.
Currently, Poland has not been directly attacked by Russian military during this conflict to date so do not have legal basis to trigger this Article 5 clause.
Poland is, however, working towards assembling one of the largest ground armies in Europe largely as a deterrent and response towards Russian aggression, spending upwards of 5% of their GDP on the military starting in 2023. The NATO minimum is 2% and historically has been below this. Already at 22nd ranked military by the military power index, by decade end, Poland would be a mistake to invade by conventional military means, by essentially any European (Russia included) army.

简短回答:不会
他们想加入北约,就是因为他们不想要单独行动。
这个防御/进攻联盟有一个联合行动部分,即北约。
如果他们自己发动战争,那么在没有北约盟友支持的情况下,这将是一种非法行动。
因此,不会,除非援引第5条,否则波兰不会加入。第5条,就是如果他们或另一个北约盟友受到攻击,包括美国在内的整个31个国家将被拖入对抗对方的战争。
波兰不会冒险孤军奋战,因为这会失去北约的支持,在政治、经济和军事上完全不值得。
这就是北约强大的原因,也是俄罗斯所害怕的原因。
正如你所看到的,即使是乌克兰,按照目前的标准,一个被稀释的北约代理国,俄罗斯也无法征服。
想象一下,如果他们试图入侵一个合适的北约国家,并同时面对地球上31支最发达、最强大的军队的力量。
目前,波兰尚未在这场冲突中受到俄罗斯军方的直接袭击,因此没有触发第5条条款的法律依据。
然而,波兰正在努力组建欧洲最大的地面部队之一,主要是为了威慑和应对俄罗斯的侵略,从2023年开始,波兰将其国内生产总值的5%以上用于军事。北约的最低标准是2%,历史上一直低于这一标准。根据军事力量指数,波兰已经排在第22位,到十年结束时,通过常规军事手段入侵波兰将是一个错误,基本上任何欧洲(包括俄罗斯)军队都是如此。

Ryszard
Poland gives so much aid to Ukraine because it wants to make sure that after the war Russia will be too exhausted to even think about starting a conflict with another country, let alone NATO. It also realizes that Ukraine is demographically finished and wants to avoid its fate.

波兰向乌克兰提供如此多的援助,是因为它想确保战争结束后,俄罗斯会筋疲力尽,再也不会去考虑与另一个国家爆发冲突了,更不用说北约爆发冲突了。波兰也意识到乌克兰在人口结构上已经完蛋了,并希望自己可以避免这样的命运。

Finn Larkin
There are a lot of polish people that do want to fight Russia. The vast majority of poles that feel that way though and would ever actually do anything about it have already volunteered to fight for Ukraine.
I doubt very much though that the polish government itself is actually stupid enough to try going to war with Russia, and that's only compounded by the fact that the many poles who did want to go to war were a very loud minority, who, as I said, have already run off to fight. Poland is just very big on the anti Russian rhetoric right now because it makes them money as Ukraine's supply hub, and makes them look good to the US and UK. Maybe they have an eye on finding a way to acquire western Ukrainian provinces, which the Russians don't really want and were historically polish anyway, and thanks to close ties to Poland and the anti Russian rhetoric the western Ukrainians just might be amenable to that of things go sideways enough for them.
But no, Poland will not go to war with Russia. It would cost them everything and for no benefit.

有很多波兰人确实想与俄罗斯作战。绝大多数有这种感觉的波兰人已经自愿为乌克兰而战。
然而,我非常怀疑波兰政府本身是否真的愚蠢到试图与俄罗斯开战,而事实上,许多想开战的波兰人都是非常大声的少数人,正如我所说,他们已经跑去打仗了。
波兰现在在反俄言论上非常强硬,因为它作为乌克兰的供应中心,一直在赚钱。这使得他们在美国和英国看来很好。
也许他们正在寻找一种方法来收购乌克兰西部的省份,而俄罗斯人并不真的想要这些省份,而且在历史上这些省份一直是波兰的。由于这些省份与波兰的密切关系和反俄言论,乌克兰人可能会接受这种情况。
但是,不会,波兰不会与俄罗斯开战。因为这将使他们付出一切,而且没有任何好处。

Steven Pace
Poland and Russia are unlikely to go to war. Poland is a member of NATO, has a pretty big army, and is very cautious about this; there is a lot of history there. And if Poland actually attacks a nuclear armed opponent, NATO has no obligation to help them. So Poland would go from 99.9999 % safe to 0% safe if they attacked Russia. Europe can give Ukraine at lot of weapons. Eventually Ukraine will have better equipment that Russia and better, more experienced, soldiers. And Poland and the Baltics will always give the most, because of the bear next door. Russia is likely to have bigger numbers of soldiers though.

波兰和俄罗斯不太可能开战。波兰是北约成员国,拥有相当庞大的军队,对此非常谨慎。此处有很多历史。
如果波兰真的袭击了拥有核武器的对手,北约没有义务帮助他们。
因此,如果波兰攻击俄罗斯,他们的安全性将从99.9999%变成0%。
欧洲可以向乌克兰提供大量武器。最终,乌克兰将拥有比俄罗斯更好的装备,以及更好、更有经验的士兵。
波兰和波罗的海国家将永远给予最多,因为隔壁有熊。不过,俄罗斯可能会有更多的士兵。

Anton Danylchenko
Ukraine has more than enough soldiers and can mobilize more.
Ukraine runs low on military equipment and ammo. And Ukraine lacks training of soldiers - especially training of sergeants and officers and training on modern Western military equipment.
The best way to help Ukraine is not to send foreign soldiers but to significantly increase training of Ukrainian soldiers in Western countries and to give Ukraine much more military equipment - especially planes, tanks and long-range missiles. The number of Leopard tanks given to Ukriane is definitely not enough for big offensive operations against strong defense organized by Russia. Russia still has big advantage in number of artillery systems and tanks and especially planes. Without all mentioned above equipment in big numbers and without appropriate training it will be extremely hard to push Russian army from Ukraine (no matter how many soldiers from how many countries are sent to help).

乌克兰有足够的士兵,可以动员更多的人。
乌克兰的军事装备和弹药不足。乌克兰缺乏对士兵的培训,尤其是对中士和军官的培训,以及对现代西方军事装备的培训。
帮助乌克兰的最好方法不是派遣外国士兵,而是大幅增加对乌克兰士兵在西方国家的训练,并向乌克兰提供更多的军事装备,尤其是飞机、坦克和远程导弹。
乌克兰豹式坦克的数量绝对不足以应对俄罗斯组织的针对强大防御的大规模进攻行动。俄罗斯在火炮系统和坦克,尤其是飞机的数量上仍然有很大的优势。如果没有上述所有大量装备,也没有适当的训练,将极难将俄罗斯军队从乌克兰撤出(无论有多少国家的士兵被派去提供帮助都一样)。

Abbotsbury Joe
This idea to fight Russia for Ukraine should never be considered. Poland is an independent country and moving forward as a tech nation and a great example of the significant strides Poland has become after Iron Curtain rule for so many years. It’s time has come to now move forward as a country with significant Engineering/technology progress and a bright future. This fighting bravado needs to remain only as a topic for old retired men to discuss in bars. A war is NEVER a solution. The United States and the Biden administration is corrupt for what they are doing with the Zellensky puppet government. This “humanitarian “ effort will go down as yet another failed attempt Im sorry to say as Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. I am an American with Polish roots who loves America but our current political Ukraine situation is a failed proposal of monumental proportions.

这种为乌克兰与俄罗斯作战的想法,永远不应该被考虑。
波兰是一个独立的国家,正在作为一个科技国家向前迈进,这是波兰在铁幕统治多年后取得重大进步的一个伟大例子。
作为一个工程/技术进步显著、前景光明的国家,现在是时候向前迈进了。
这种战斗的虚张声势行为,只需要作为退休老人在酒吧里讨论的话题。战争从来都不是解决办法。
美国和拜登政府对泽伦斯基傀儡政府的所作所为是堕落的。这一“人道主义”努力将被视为又一次失败的尝试。我很抱歉地说,会像越南、伊拉克和阿富汗一样。
我是一个有波兰血统的美国人,热爱美国,但我们目前的乌克兰政治局势是一个巨大的失败提议。

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Bronwyn SoCal Gal
Poland actually wanted to send troops into Ukraine shortly after the invasion but was swayed not to do so by NATO, as Poland is a NATO member. This reaction could’ve quickly escalated the conflict into a full-blown attack on Russia by all Article 5 nations.
However, should Ukraine fall, Poland without a doubt would more than likely forgo their NATO membership and send troops into Ukraine.
I had to look into why the animosity between Poland and Russia is so high. Russia considers Poland to be part of Russia (very similar to Ukraine) and Putin ultimately wants all past territories back within Moscow’s influence. Russia has not treated Poland very kindly in the past either. Ukraine is literally the buffer between Poland’s borders and Russia. Should Ukraine fall, Russia would be at Poland’s back door. Poland seems hell-bent on not allowing this to happen… ever!

事实上,波兰在俄罗斯入侵后不久就想向乌克兰派遣军队,但由于波兰是北约成员国,北约决定不派遣军队。这种反应可能会迅速将冲突升级为所有北约国家因为第5条而对俄罗斯发起全面攻击。
然而,如果乌克兰沦陷,毫无疑问,波兰很可能会放弃其北约成员国身份,并向乌克兰派遣军队。
我不得不探究为什么波兰和俄罗斯之间的敌意如此之高。俄罗斯认为波兰是俄罗斯的一部分(与乌克兰非常相似),普京最终希望所有过去的领土都回到莫斯科的影响范围内。俄罗斯过去对波兰也不是很友善。乌克兰实际上是波兰与俄罗斯边界之间的缓冲区。如果乌克兰沦陷,俄罗斯将站在波兰的后门口。波兰似乎会下定决心不允许这种情况发生……永远不允许!

Michael Ciao
Look at Ukraine, country destroyed, young men killed in huge number. People who glorify Ukrainians are ignoring what happened in Ukraine. Nobody wish that on their own country and their young men.
Gradually propaganda dust is settling, Europeans see what happened in Ukraine, they came to the realization that Russia is fully capable to completely destroy their countries if it must. There is no right or wrong but reality of war, might is right! Poles are not known to be the sharpest tools in the shed, but they can see it up close.

看看乌克兰,这个国家被摧毁了,年轻人被大量杀害。美化乌克兰战争的人,忽视了乌克兰正在发生的事情。没有人希望这发生在他们自己的国家和他们的年轻人身上。
渐渐地,宣传尘埃落定,欧洲人看到了乌克兰发生的事情,他们意识到,如果有必要的话,俄罗斯完全有能力彻底摧毁他们的国家。没有对错之分,战争的现实,就是强权即真理!波兰人不是作为最强战力而闻名,他们可以在近代史中看到这个现实。

Tom
As much as the Poles would like to kick some Russian butt they are a NATO country so that could start WW3. This is exactly what NATO is trying to avoid by sending billions of $ of weapons for the Ukrainians to fight with.

尽管波兰人很想踢俄罗斯的屁股,但他们是一个北约国家,所以可以开始第三次世界大战。第三次世界大战正是北约试图通过向乌克兰人运送数十亿美元的武器来避免的。

Jan
No. It would be extremely stupid and dangerous. With zero chances to defeat ruSSia.

不,那将是极其愚蠢和危险的。击败俄罗斯的机会为零。

Gregory
Ukraine is rated as the 15th most powerful military in the world. Poland comes in at 20th. If Ukraine can’t beat Russia with the aid of 30 other countries, Poland has even less chance.
Sure, Poland could drag NATO into direct confrontation, but that would probably mean global thermonuclear war and nobody wins that, just surviving it is iffy.

乌克兰被评为世界上第15大军事强国。波兰队排在第20位。如果乌克兰不能在其他30个国家的援助下击败俄罗斯,波兰的机会就更小了。
当然,波兰可能会将北约拖入直接对抗,但这可能意味着全球热核战争,没有人会赢,能不能生存下来都是不确定的。

RK
On such matters, governments don't act as sentimental individuals. They provide aid and do not want to be in a war unless attacked.
I don't think that Polish politicians shall be like individual sentimental lot to go for a war without being attacked.
My Best Wishes.

在这些问题上,政府不会表现得像个感情用事的人。他们提供援助,除非受到攻击,否则不想卷入战争。
我不认为波兰政客会像个人一样感情用事地发动战争,并认为自己不会受到攻击。
送上我最美好的祝愿。

James Joseph
Poland will never join in. The destruction from battling Russia is simply too horrendous for any individual country. Or even any group of countries. NATO would back out of joining Poland. As it is, NATO is suffering enormous losses from Ukraine alone, and NATO’s members are starting to squeal from the pain.

波兰永远不会加入。与俄罗斯作战造成的破坏对任何一个国家来说都太可怕了。甚至对任何一组国家来说,都是如此。如果波兰加入了,北约将把波兰踢出去。事实上,仅乌克兰一国就给北约造成了巨大损失,北约成员国也开始从痛苦中尖叫起来。

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