“现实情况下理性做法是修复跟中俄的关系,但这不可能发生…”美利坚帝国的崩溃 - 经济层面(三·三)
2024-03-16 翻译熊 6995
正文翻译

The most acute threat to US financial dominance is coming from BRICS, which this year officially added five new members. Three of these new participants — Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — are oil producing powers. When tallied together, BRICS members will now control over 30% of the global energy market, overshadowing the US at 21%. BRICS will also consume 31% of the world’s energy (India’s energy dependence is the primary reason it has refused to sanction Russia), which in this realm alone creates huge incentives for them to ditch the dollar.
Iraq, which produces an additional 5% of the world’s oil supply, is also eager to join BRICS, but this effort has been blocked by the US military occupation of their country. Under present day circumstances, Iraq’s oil economy is entirely managed by the New York Federal Reserve. If Iraq and Iran work together to expel the US military out of the country, it is unlikely that Baghdad will remain in Washington’s sphere of influence.

(接上)
对美国金融主导地位的最严重威胁来自金砖国家,该组织今年正式增加了5个新成员。其中三个新参与者——伊朗、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国——都是石油生产国。加起来,金砖国家将控制全球能源市场30%以上的份额,超过了美国21%的份额。
金砖国家还将消耗世界能源的31%(印度对能源的依赖是其拒绝制裁俄罗斯的主要原因),仅在这一领域,就为他们抛弃美元创造了巨大的动力。
占世界石油供应量5%的伊拉克也渴望加入金砖国家,但这一努力因美国对其国家的军事占领而受阻。在目前的情况下,伊拉克的石油经济完全由纽约联邦储备银行管理。如果伊拉克和伊朗联手将美军驱逐出伊拉克,巴格达就不太可能继续留在华盛顿的势力范围内。

BRICS nations have expressed interest in creating new money to trade in, backed by a basket of their local currencies and their respective resource and manufacturing capacities. Today, G7 nations only contribute approximately 30% of the world’s economic activity when adjusted for PPP.
There are several barriers and irreconcilable differences among the BRICS nations, however. The United States can do what it likes in its part of the increasingly multi-polar order due to its powerful military and financial stranglehold over the European, Japanese, Taiwanese and Korean economies, while among the BRICS, no country is interested in or capable of this type of hegemony. Rumors are spreading that there are plans to unveil a dollar-killer at the BRICS conference hosted in Russia this year, but this should be taken with a grain of salt.

金砖国家表示有兴趣创造新的货币进行贸易,以一篮子本国货币以及各自的资源和制造能力为后盾。今天,七国集团国家在按购买力平价调整后,只贡献了世界经济活动的30%左右。
然而,金砖国家之间存在着一些障碍和不可调和的分歧。由于对欧洲、日本、台湾地区和韩国经济的强大军事和金融控制,美国可以在日益多极化的秩序中随心所欲,而在金砖国家中,没有一个国家有兴趣或有能力实现这种霸权。有传言称,今年在俄罗斯举行的金砖国家会议上,有计划推出一种“美元杀手”,但对此我们应该持怀疑态度。
总的来说,金砖国家的货币并不是真正必要的,不管接下来会发生什么,如果认为美元的主导地位是理所当然的话,这是愚蠢的。比起单一的对立货币,世界各国通过本国货币增加双边贸易更为可行,直到美元从不断贬值中消亡。
美国决策者迟迟不愿将近岸工业迁回美国,这暗示着华盛顿正在做最坏的打算。

Bidenomics: Why Reshoring Will Fail
Most of America’s imperial woes could be fixed by pursuing a policy of autarky. With its vast population, physical safety from rivals, and large population this is within the realm of possibility, so the question is one of will.
Enter Bidenomics, a collection of legislative bills worth $100s of billions of dollars intended to depart from the neoliberal “Washington consensus” and blow the cobwebs off American industry. So far, this project has produced paltry results.
Take for example the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act. In the interest of defeating China in the global A.I. and semiconductor fields, the US government is providing massive subsidies and tax breaks to companies such as Intel, TSMC, Nvidia, etc to invest in Research & Development, bring production to the US, and leave China in the dust .

拜登经济学:为什么回流会失败
美国帝国主义的大部分困境可以通过奉行自给自足的政策来解决。由于人口众多,人身安全不受竞争对手的影响,而且人口众多,这是可能的,所以问题是意愿。
“拜登经济学提出了一系列价值数千亿美元的立法法案,旨在背离新自由主义的“华盛顿共识”,并扫除美国工业的蜘蛛网。到目前为止,这个项目收效甚微。
以2022年芯片和科学法案为例。为了在全球人工智能和半导体领域击败中国,美国政府向英特尔、台积电、英伟达等公司提供大量补贴和税收减免,以投资研发,将生产转移到美国,把中国甩在身后。

The limitations of America’s shareholder-centered capitalist economy are coming to the fore. In Nvidia’s case, the company has embarked on a massive $25 billion dollar stock buyback scheme, causing some analysts to warn about the company’s surging stock value, which is fake and delixed from its profitability. The CHIPS act bans companies from stealing tax-payer provided subsidies through this type of speculative activity, but there are no strings attached after they have invested the bare minimum. This means they are playing on the stock market in the interest of self-dealing over making a good faith effort to invest in development in hopes of long-term profits.

美国以股东为中心的资本主义经济的局限性正在显现。以英伟达为例,该公司已经启动了250亿美元的大规模股票回购计划,导致一些分析师对该公司股价飙升提出警告,这是虚假的,与盈利能力脱节。
芯片法案禁止公司通过这类投机活动窃取纳税人提供的补贴,但在投资达到最低限度后,没有任何附加条件。这意味着,他们在股市上玩的是自我交易,而不是真诚地投资于发展,希望获得长期利润。

Nvidia has even been spending money looking for ways around US semiconductors sanctions on China (the world’s top consumer of such devices), leading to the absurdity of public subsidies potentially being used to come up with workarounds that continue aiding the America government’s enemies.
Intel is another offender in stock buybacks. From 2022 to 2023, the company increased its stock buyback regiment by 91%, or $5.5 billion. Part of this cycle of greed and stagnation is being driven by leaches aggressively seeking to short Intel stock, which has proven quite volatile. The Chinese state has neutralized the economy-retarding effects of short-selling by simply banning it, but such an assertive move by the state in America requires exercising power over finance our plutocracy does not have.

英伟达甚至一直在花钱寻找绕过美国对中国(世界上最大的半导体消费国)半导体制裁的方法,导致公共补贴可能被用来寻找继续帮助美国政府敌人的变通办法这一荒谬场景。
英特尔是股票回购的另一个违规者。从2022年到2023年,该公司的股票回购规模增加了91%,即55亿美元。这种贪婪和停滞的循环部分是由积极寻求做空英特尔股票所驱动的,事实证明英特尔股票相当不稳定。中国政府通过简单地禁止卖空,抵消了卖空对经济的阻碍作用,但美国政府采取这种武断的举动,需要行使我们的财阀所没有的权力。

As for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s game changing $40 billion dollar facility in Phoenix, the celebrations came before any results. The entire project has suffered from significant delays from top to bottom. TSMC recently announced that it will not be able to start semiconductor production until 2025 due to a lack of qualified labor.
Part of the economic challenge facing America is a relative lack of STEM graduates. According to Charles Murray’s Facing Reality, white Americans have an average IQ of 103, while Mesoamericans are at 94 and blacks at 91. Using this data, we can conclude that drastic changes in the racial makeup of the United States in the last 40 years have basically lowered the national IQ.

至于台积电在凤凰城投资400亿美元的工厂,庆祝活动来得比任何结果都早。整个项目从上到下都遭受了严重的延误。台积电最近宣布,由于缺乏合格的劳动力,它将无法在2025年之前开始半导体生产。
美国面临的部分经济挑战是相对缺乏理工科毕业生。根据查尔斯·默里的《面对现实》,美国白人的平均智商为103,中美洲人为94,黑人为91。根据这些数据,我们可以得出结论,在过去的40年里,美国种族构成的剧烈变化基本上降低了国民的智商。

But IQ does not need to be destiny. Iran’s IQ lower than the US’ (98), but the Iranian state has invested heavily in identifying and educating gifted students in order to survive ceaseless attacks on its sovereignty and murders of its scientists by the Zionist world order. The result of this prudent policy is reflected in Iran’s unexpected and sudden rise as a producer of sophisticated weapons, including hypersonic missiles. Currently, 41% of Chinese students graduate in STEM, 37% in Russia, and 33% in Iran, while the US lags behind at 20%.

但智商不必然决定命运。伊朗的智商低于美国(98分),但伊朗政府在识别和教育天才学生方面投入了大量资金,以便在犹太复国主义世界秩序对其主权的不断攻击和对其科学家的谋杀中生存下来。这一谨慎政策的结果反映在伊朗出人意料地突然崛起,成为包括高超音速导弹在内的尖端武器生产国。目前,41%的中国学生毕业于理工专业,俄罗斯为37%,伊朗为33%,而美国仅为20%。

The contempt the heavily Jewish American elite hold for white Americans must also be factored in. One example is the bizarre provision in the CHIPS Act instructing beneficiaries to boycott suppliers and workers of European descent. In higher education, which in the US is a costly, for-profit enterprise, virtually all engineering scholarships require applicants to be minority or female.
The US Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Affirmative Action in higher learning last year appears to be tailored towards trying to bring white people back into the house to fight Russia, Iran and China. How far this will go in practice is unknown, as most American elite universities appear ideologically committed to excluding non-Jewish white people and there are few legal resources for white students to access.

以犹太人为主的美国精英阶层对美国白人的蔑视也必须考虑在内。一个例子是芯片法案中奇怪的条款,它指示受益人抵制供应商和欧洲血统的工人。高等教育在美国是一项成本高昂的营利性事业,几乎所有工程类奖学金都要求申请者为少数族裔或女性。
去年,美国最高法院撤销高等教育中的平权法案的决定,似乎是为了让白人重返校园,对抗俄罗斯、伊朗和中国。这在实践中会走多远还不得而知,因为大多数美国精英大学似乎在意识形态上致力于排斥非犹太白人,而且白人学生获得的法律资源很少。

We see identical problems in the manufacturing area, where state funded largesse leads to an initial expansion of industrial activity only to fizzle out soon after. It seems that no matter how much money the government spends, it simply has no mechanism for forcing capitalists to invest in increasing production or grow markets outside of burdensome fields (such as tech and finance).
This is an outgrowth of the intrinsic corruption that plagues every liberal capitalist system.
For China and Russia, the economies are centrally planned around self-reliance to different degrees. Both countries have corruption, but they aggressively pursue it, including regularly meting out the death penalty to oligarchs and compromised state officials in the Chinese case.

我们在制造业领域也看到了同样的问题,国家资助的慷慨导致了工业活动最初的扩张,但很快就消失了。似乎无论政府花多少钱,它都没有机制迫使资本家投资于增加产量或在繁重的领域(如科技和金融)之外拓展市场。这是困扰每一个自由资本主义制度的内在腐败的结果。
对中国和俄罗斯来说,经济都是围绕不同程度的自力更生进行中央计划的。这两个国家都存在FB,但它们都在积极打击腐败,包括在中国的情况下,定期对寡头和妥协的国家官员判处S刑。

The United States radically diverges. In America it is legal for officials to receive payoffs from the financial sector (through “lobbying,” PACs and other practices banned in competing states), thus reducing state independence and making it difficult for political representatives to discipline capital.
It is impossible to speculate how much securities and accounting fraud is happening in the US economy as we speak, but the current record low rate of white collar criminal prosecutions should be interpreted as a wink to Wall Street.

美国则截然不同。在美国,官员从金融部门获得报酬是合法的(通过“游说”、政治行动委员会和其他在竞争激烈的州被禁止的做法),从而降低了州的独立性,使政治代表难以约束资本。
在我们说话的时候,不可能推测美国经济中发生了多少证券和会计欺诈,但目前白领刑事起诉率创历史新低,应被解读为对华尔街的一种暗示。

How much longer will the world put up with this, is the question. Just one gust of wind could bring the entire economic house of cards down and launch America into completely unchartered, perilous waters. A rational managerial class would’ve accepted that the tables have turned and started mending relations with China, Iran and Russia.
Instead, the Washington-New York-California oligarchy is doubling down on denial and intensifying their threatening actions against both the people of the world and those of us who have the misfortune of being under them.

问题是,世界还能容忍这种情况多久。只要一阵风就能把整个经济的纸牌屋吹倒,把美国推入完全未知的危险水域。理性的管理阶层会接受局面已经扭转,并开始修复与中国、伊朗和俄罗斯的关系。
相反,华盛顿-纽约-加利福尼亚寡头正在加倍否认,并加强他们对世界人民和我们这些不幸在他们之下的人的威胁行动。
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评论翻译
Anon[234] · Disclaimer says:
Time to vote with our feet and leave for better pastures. It’s easier than one thinks. Our forefathers did, we can too. Our Grandchildren will thank us.
Get out while you still can

是时候用脚投票,去寻找更好的地方了。这比人们想象的要容易。我们的祖先做到了,我们也能做到。我们的孙辈会感谢我们的。
趁你还能逃出去。

Montefrío says:
@Anon It’s not so easy without being at least fluent in a language other than English. I’m bilingual and can get along in a number of other languages. I’ve lived outside the USA for most of my adult life and left permanently in 1998, choosing Spanish-speaking countries as that is my strongest language. If one wishes to stay in the Western Hemisphere, it’s definitely the go-to language: it’s not difficult to learn and in the USA opportunity to speak and hear it abounds. The Latin culture, however, is quite different from that of “mainstream” USA, a factor that may well prove discouraging to those without a familiarity with the former. Nevertheless, I strongly suspect that South America, particularly the Southern Cone countries, may well be the final frontier for Western civilization, albeit not so much the Northwestern European style. My grandchildren are natives of the country in which I live, very curious about the USA and Europe, but they have it made here, which they’ll understand as they grow into adolescence. They can be grateful to my memory when they grow out of adolescence. That’ll be good enough for me.

如果不流利地掌握英语以外的一门语言,那就不那么容易了。我能说两种语言,可以用几种其他语言相处。我成年后的大部分时间都住在美国以外的地方,1998年永久离开了美国,选择了说西班牙语的国家,因为这是我最擅长的语言。
如果一个人想留在西半球,这绝对是首选语言:学习它并不难,在美国有很多机会说和听它。然而,拉丁文化与美国的“主流”文化截然不同,这一因素可能会让那些不熟悉前者的人感到沮丧。尽管如此,我强烈怀疑南美洲,特别是南锥体国家,可能是西方文明的最后边界,尽管不是西北欧风格。
我的孙子们是我所居住的国家的本地人,他们对美国和欧洲非常好奇,但他们是在这里土生土长的,当他们成长为青少年时,他们会理解的。当他们走出青春期时,他们会感激我的记忆。这对我来说就足够了。

Been_there_done_that says:
Economic activity derives from production, which enables consumption. It is misleading to try to putatively describe cumulative productive output, including services, in terms of a manipulative and thus superficial transformation (adjustment) into purchasing essential goods from a narrowly defined basket, which generally does not include luxury goods and otherwise poorly reflects reality because the quality levels of similar goods, as well as their utilities, are different in various regions of the world. Using the PPP metric is a mechanism for making poorer countries appear to be better off relative to more affluent ones than would be the case when compared with nominal output, converted into a common currency. Nonetheless, the population of the G7 countries (USA, Germany, Japan, UK, France, Italy, Canada) is less than ten percent of the world’s population.

“今天,七国集团国家在按购买力平价调整后,只贡献了世界经济活动的30%左右。”
经济活动源于生产,而生产又促成了消费。试图假定地通过“操纵和肤浅”的角度去描述包括服务在内的累积生产性产出是误入歧途,即从一个狭义的篮子中购买基本商品,这通常不包括奢侈品,否则很难反映现实,因为类似商品的质量水平及其效用在世界不同地区是不同的。
使用购买力平价衡量标准是一种机制,可以使较贫穷的国家相对于较富裕的国家表现得更好,而不是与转换成共同货币的名义产出相比。尽管如此,七国集团(美国、德国、日本、英国、法国、意大利、加拿大)的人口还不到世界人口的10%。

showmethereal says:
@Been_there_done_that Many so called “services” are simply manipulative and superficial.
But yeah you make a point about quality regarding PPP. But you left out a great example that goes against your point. Take healthcare. US healthcare is a gross inflation by whatever measure – meanwhile plenty of less rich countries get measurably better healthcare results. Go figure…

许多所谓的“服务”本身是操纵和肤浅的。
你对购买力平价的质量提出了一个观点。但你遗漏了一个很好的例子,这与你的观点相悖。
以医疗保健为例,无论以何种标准衡量,美国的医疗保健都是通胀——与此同时,许多不太富裕的国家的医疗保健结果明显更好。你自己去看吧。

animalogic says:
It’s been said thousands of times — neo-con/lib elites have no reverse gear.
Same Hubris as a Greek tragedy, thousands of years, over & over again…. Thank god the Greeks had no nuclear weapons.

这已经被说了几千次了——新保守主义/自由主义精英们没有倒车装置。
和希腊悲剧一样的傲慢,几千年来,一遍又一遍....谢天谢地,希腊人没有核武器。

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