网友热议:到2100年哪个国家将成为唯一的超级大国?
2024-05-19 Phelps 8485
正文翻译
很可能是瓷器国,哈哈!


评论翻译

Feifei Wang
You mean if we somehow solve global warming, and AI hasn’t killed us, and we haven’t killed ourselves with nuclear war… I don’t think there will be a sole superpower going forward.

你的意思是,如果我们设法解决了全球变暖问题,人工智能没有杀死我们,核战争也没有毁灭我们自己…… 我不认为未来会有唯一的超级大国。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


So, the idea of a global superpower was actually a pretty new concept. It came out of the Cold War era of arms races and proxy wars between the US and USSR. I felt that first the British Empire and then the US becoming the supposed “dominating” power in the world were more of historical outliners that happened under very specific circumstances. For The British Empire, it was colonialism and the beginning of true globalization. For the US, it was WWII + Cold War + Doomsday weapon. It’s not a rule. Our history wasn’t filled with world superpowers. Sure, we have plenty of empires that dominated a certain region for a (often short) period of time, but never a “world” power.

所以,全球超级大国的概念实际上是一个相当新的概念。它源于美苏冷战时期军备竞赛和代理战争的时代。我认为,首先是英国帝国,然后是美国成为世界上所谓的“主导”力量,更多的是历史上在非常特定情况下出现的例外。对于大英帝国来说,它是殖民主义和真正全球化开始的标志。对于美国来说,则是二战 + 冷战 + 末日武器。这并非一个常态。历史上并不总是存在着世界超级大国。诚然,历史上存在过许多在特定区域(通常时间短暂)占主导地位的帝国,但从未出现过真正的“世界”霸权。

I don’t think we will ever have that kind of circumstance for that kind of consolidation of power to happen, (short from another World War will most likely become a nuclear war, and we all die…)

我不认为我们将再次拥有那种可以让权力如此集中起来的环境(除非爆发另一场世界大战,那么很可能变成核战争,然后我们大家都玩完了……)

Despite never winning a single war after WWII, The US undoubtedly commanded the greatest most powerful army on earth and a nuclear stockpile enough to blow all of us to kingdom come. So if you’re talking about sole military superpower, I felt that the US would clinch on that with the last penny of its budget. The US would let its economy die before it reduced its defense budget.

尽管美国在二战后从未赢得过任何一场战争,但毫无疑问,它拥有地球上最强大、最精良的军队,以及足以把我们所有人都炸上天的核武器库。因此,如果你指的是唯一的军事超级大国,我认为美国会不惜一切代价,用尽预算的最后一分钱来捍卫这个地位。美国宁愿让自己的经济崩溃,也不愿削减国防开支。

But with nuclear weapons on the table, we are (thankfully) more cautious with large-scale ground wars that involve countries from the Security Council. So at the end of the day, the most powerful, most advanced, most well-equipped, and well-trained army is just an ego-booster for Americans.

但是,由于核武器的存在,我们(谢天谢地)对涉及安理会国家的更大规模地面战争更加谨慎。因此,到头来,最强大、最先进、装备最精良、训练最充分的军队,对于美国人来说,仅仅是一种面子工程。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


I think more and more people realized it makes more money to work together and trade than go to war.
I think and I hope 2100’s world wouldn’t have a superpower. But everyone collaborates with each other, everyone trades with each other, and we all get rich quick.

我认为越来越多的人意识到,合作贸易比发动战争能赚更多的钱。
我希望,也是我所期待的,2100 年的世界将不会存在超级大国。而是所有人互相合作,所有人互相贸易,我们都将快速致富。

Michael Phi
On longer timefrx, I think India will be. A lot of Indians are already CEOs of giant tech company. They have growing population with adequate resources. A lot of people think China will. Could be for short period of time, but China having huge problem with their birth rate and future population. If they can’t fix it somehow by 2050, India will eventually outgrow them. Meanwhile, the US can still remain the throne, if there is a civil war or a revolution that fix the damn current goverment. Russia could be a good canidate as well. To be honest, it is pretty ambigous right now and it could be anyone game. Nevertheless, India looks very promising with current trend and data. In order to become a super power, you need good amount of land/resource, decent working population, strong culture/religion, political policies. The US has bad culture problem. China has population problem. Russia has policy problem (too hostile). So India is on track to become the next superpower. And btw, I am not Indian, just an observer.

如果把时间拉长,我认为印度会成为唯一的超级大国。很多印度人开始在大型科技公司担任首席执行官。印度人口不断增长,资源充足。很多人认为中国会成为超级大国,也许在短期内是可以的,但中国在出生率和未来人口规模方面存在严重问题。
如果他们无法在2050年之前解决这个问题,印度最终就会超越中国。另外,如果爆发了内战或革命来解决该死的现任政府,美国仍然可以保持霸主地位。俄罗斯也可能是一个有力的竞争者。老实说,现在的情况很不明朗,谁都有可能。
但从目前的趋势和数据来看,印度希望很大。想要成为超级大国,你需要拥有大量的土地/资源,良好的劳动人口,强大的文化/宗教,政治策略等。美国面临糟糕的文化问题。中国存在人口问题。俄罗斯有政策问题(过于敌对)。所以,印度正在向下一个超级大国而前进。顺便说一句,我不是印度人,我只是个旁观者。

Larry Evans
Is that really a serious question? We don’t know what’s gonna happen next week. Think about it a minute, in the 1950’s, who in the hell saw China being the big a player that it is.

这真的是个严肃的问题吗?我们不知道下周会发生什么。想想看,在20世纪50年代,到底有谁能预测中国发展成了如今的大国模样。

ExSoldier762
Honestly, I don’t think the planet will still exst in its current configuration. Moreover, I don’t really care. I don’t expect to live more than the next ten years. If Jesus Christ hasn’t returned by 2100, it will be the World Order running things and everyone will be a slave. But that’ll be AFTER the 5 BILLION useless “eaters and consumers” have been eliminated from vaccines, more pandemic's, useless wars, endless terrorism, government oppression and the friendly offer of a kind Euthanasia like what happened in the 1973 movie “Soylent Green” (which was set in 2022, btw).

老实说,我不认为这个星球能以目前的形态存在下去。而且,我真的不在乎。我估计也活不过十年了。如果耶稣基督到2100年还没有重新降临,世界秩序就会主宰一切,每个人都会沦为奴隶。
但那一幕会在地球上50亿无用的“食客和消费者”被疫苗、疫病、无谓的战争、无休止的恐怖主义、政府压迫和友好的安乐死等消灭干净之后发生,就像1973年的电影《超世纪谍杀案》里展示的一样(顺便说一句,剧情的时间设定在2022年)。

It’s already happening in Canada. Just a few weeks ago, there was a report of medical malpractice in Canada. A girl went into surgery for something like an appendectomy and instead found herself with both arms amputated. By way of apology, the hospital offered her Euthanasia. I don’t know what she chose. I’d probably go with their offer.

这种事态已经在加拿大发生了。就在几周前,加拿大发布了一份医疗事故的报告。一个女孩入院接受阑尾切除术之类的手术,结果发现自己的双臂被截肢了。为了表示歉意,医院提出可以为她进行安乐死。我不知道这个姑娘最后做出了什么选择。如果是我,可能会接受医院的提议。

Douglas Hilton
The unx of Nations. Putin's invasion of Ukraine has cost the global economy several trillions of dollars. A unx of the most advanced nations should eventually invite enough develo nations to join, that future wars will be extremely limited and of short duration.
The unx of Nations will eliminate all corrupt practices. To incentivize nations to join, the unx of Nations assumes all federal government debt.

国际联盟。普京出兵乌克兰,让全球经济损失了数万亿美元。一个由最发达国家组成的联盟应该邀请足够多的发展中国家加入,这样才能严格限制未来的战争,压缩战争持续的时间。
国际联盟也会消除一切腐败行为。为了鼓励各国加入,国际联盟承担了所有联邦政府的债务。

Sai Doddi
Easily India. India's GDP will overtake China's GDP in 2060. India will then take the top spot and continue to rise as China will decline due to lesser able workforce. India will continue to flourish and will become the world super power and remain so until 2100 as more of its workforce is induced into the economy.

答案很简单,印度啊。印度的GDP将在2060年超过中国。届时,印度将占据第一的位置,并继续发展,而中国将因劳动力力的减少而衰退。印度将继续蓬勃发展,成为世界超级大国,并一直保持到2100年,因为会有越来越多的劳动力参与经济活动。

Sudhansh Singh
Predicting which country will be the sole superpower in the year 2100 is highly speculative and uncertain, as it depends on numerous geopolitical, economic, technological, and social factors that are difficult to forecast accurately over such a long time horizon. Additionally, the concept of a single "sole superpower" may evolve or become less relevant in a multipolar world characterized by diverse power dynamics and shifting alliances.
That said, some analysts and scholars have suggested that China could emerge as a dominant global power by 2100, given its rapid economic growth, technological advancements, and geopolitical ambitions. China's expanding influence in various domains, including trade, finance, infrastructure development, and military capabilities, has led to speculation about its potential to challenge the United States' status as the world's preeminent superpower.

预测哪个国家将在2100年成为唯一的超级大国,纯属投机,很难确定,因为它取决于许多地缘政治、经济、技术和社会因素,这些因素很难在这么长的时间范围内准确预测。此外,单一“超级大国”的概念可能会发生变化,或者在多极世界中的重要性下降,多极世界的特点是多个大国和不断变化的联盟。
尽管如此,一些分析人士和学者还是认为,鉴于中国经济的高速增长、技术的进步和地缘政治的雄心,到2100年,中国可能会成为一个占主导地位的全球大国。中国在贸易、金融、基础设施建设和军事能力等各个领域的影响力不断扩大,人们因此预测中国有可能挑战美国作为世界头号超级大国的地位。

However, it's essential to recognize that the future is uncertain, and numerous geopolitical, economic, and societal factors could shape the global landscape in unpredictable ways over the next century. Other countries and regions, such as India, the European unx, Russia, and emerging economies in Africa and Latin America, could also play significant roles in sha the balance of power on the world stage.

但我们必须明白,未来是不确定的,许多地缘政治、经济和社会因素可能在下个世纪以不可预测的方式重塑全球格局。其他国家和地区,如印度、欧盟、俄罗斯以及非洲和拉丁美洲的新兴经济体,也会在塑造世界舞台的势力平衡方面发挥重要作用。

Brette Geofferey McCalistter
Call me crazy, but my bet is on Gibraltar. Here’s why:
It holds a geographically and tactically superior position. With the use of a little force, it can close off all access to the Mediterranean.
It boasts direct trade routes to France, the UK, Africa, all prominent trading regions.
It borders Spain to the north (weak), Morocco the south (weak), and Algeria to the east (mostly desert so easy to traverse militarily)
It has a cool name.
You might doubt me now, but just know that I’ll be laughing my head off when you’re all indentured servants to the Empire of Gibraltar.

你们可以说我疯了,但我押注给直布罗陀海峡。原因如下:
直布罗陀海峡在地理和战术上都占据优势地位。只要动用一点武力,就能封锁所有通往地中海的通道。
直布罗陀海峡拥有通往法国、英国、非洲等所有重要贸易地区的直接贸易路线。
直布罗陀海峡北面与西班牙接壤,南面与摩洛哥接壤,东面与阿尔及利亚接壤(大部分是沙漠,军事上很容易穿越)
直布罗陀海峡的名字很酷。
你现在可能会怀疑我,但等到你们都成了直布罗陀帝国的契约仆役,我肯定会笑掉大牙的。

Ian Chamberlain
China assuming they keep develo their industrial base and export markets. The United States is rich but the Chinese sell products in bulk around the world. I can buy a diesel heater for my boat that would cost me £100 if I buy it from a company in China. The same style, capacity, efficiency and longevity of heater in the western world would cost me £700+ . This means I could buy two, keep one and sell one for profit and still be at least £300 better off if I buy from China. I should have been born in China

中国会继续发展自己的工业基础和出口市场。美国非常富裕,而中国人在世界各地大量销售产品。我可以为我的船购买一个柴油加热器,如果我购买中国公司的产品,要花100英镑。西方生产的同样款式、容量、功率和寿命的产品,得花费700英镑以上。这意味着我大可以直接买两个,留一个自用,卖一个赚钱,如果我从中国买,至少还能多赚300英镑。我要是出生在中国就好了。

Oste
There is no question in my mind, it will be China; China is astute in international relationships and how to pit one nation and its leaders against another. It has already stated it will replace the US as the world’s only superpower by 2049.
The US has never had an effective and knowledgeable diplomatic corp which at its best is robotic in the performance of its duties.
China is a nation with a 2000 year history of politcal and negotiations.
It has learned from its past and brought the study of other nations’ thinking and activities with its successes and failures to an art form.

毫无疑问,在我心中这个国家就是中国;中国在国际关系上很精明,擅长挑拨一个国家和领导人对抗另一个国家。中国已经表态,到2049年,中国将取代美国成为世界上唯一的超级大国。
美国不曾拥有一个有效的、知识渊博的外交团队,在履行职责时充其量就是个机器人。
中国是一个拥有两千年历史的国家。
中国吸取了过去的教训,把对其他民族思想和活动的研究与成功和失败结合起来,形成了一种政治艺术。

Wade Biggs
China, then India, possibly the United States again. It will have to be a nation with the industrial capacity, resources and population. The days of island nations being a superpower died with Great Britain.

中国,然后是印度,可能还有美国。这个国家必须是一个拥有工业能力、资源和人口的国家。岛国成为超级大国的时代随着英国的没落而终结。

J-Rad
According to the WEF and UN by 2030 the USA won't be thr superpower anymore. Instead it will be dominated by multiple powerful nations working together in a globalist coalition (new world order). These countries according to the UN/WEF will be led by China .

根据世界经济论坛和联合国的数据,到2030年,美国将不再是超级大国了。相反,世界将由多个大同主导,共同组成一个全球主义联盟(新世界秩序)。根据联合国/世界经济论坛的说法,这些国家将以中国为首。

West Coast What
Likely a united Africa.
Or a united and brand new Antarctica.
or even perhaps Russia, Canada & Greenland (once all that snow melts).

可能是一个统一的非洲。
或者是一个统一的全新的南极洲。
甚至可能是俄罗斯、加拿大和格陵兰岛(在所有的积雪融化后)。

Ron Richards
That’s 76 years from now. A lot can happen between now and then. Fact is, my being a Christian and knowing a little bit about Biblical prophecy, I think the only superpower long before then will the world leadership led by Jesus Christ. In fact I believe his return is right around the corner. By 2030. Visit some of my other postings on Quora explaining why if you really are that interested.

那已经是76年后的事了。在这段时间内,可能会发生很多事。事实是,作为一个基督徒,我对圣经的预言有一点了解,我认为在那之前唯一的超级大国将是耶稣基督领导的世界。事实上,我相信他很快就会重新降临到这个世界上。在2030年之前。如果你真的感兴趣,可以看看我在Quora上的其他帖子来了解原因。

Bert Wolfe
The 20th century was The American Century. The 21st century will be The Chinese Century. The American Century IS OVER! The sooner that Americans from the highest councils of government in Washington, DC to the average American on the street accept that, and start adjusting American foreign policy to that reality, the better off both the United States of America and the rest of the world will be.

20世纪是美国的世纪。21世纪会是中国的世纪。美国的世纪已经结束了!从华盛顿特区的最高政府委员会到街头的普通美国人,美国人越早接受这一点,并根据这一现实开始调整美国的外交政策,美国和世界其他地区的情况就会越好。

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