2024-05-24 碧波荡漾恒河水 6578

After decades of strategic drift and costly acquisition failures, the U.S. Navy is sailing straight into a storm it can’t avoid.

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

As evidenced by the Biden administration’s latest budget request, fiscal constraints are forcing the Navy to cut procurement requests, delay modernization programs, and retire ships early. The Navy’s budget for the 2025 fiscal year calls for decommissioning 19 ships—including three nuclear-powered attack submarines and four guided-missile cruisers—while procuring only six new vessels. The full scope of what military analysts have long warned would be the “Terrible ’20s” is now evident: The expensive upgrading of the U.S. nuclear triad, simultaneous modernization efforts across the services, and the constraint of rising government debt are compelling the Pentagon to make tough choices about what it can and cannot pay for.


Workforce shortages and supply chain issues are also limiting shipbuilding capacity. The defense industrial base is still struggling to recover from post-Cold War budget cuts that dramatically shrank U.S. defense manufacturing. The Navy needs more shipyard capacity, but finding enough qualified workers for the yards remains the biggest barrier to expanding production. The shipbuilding industry is struggling to attract talent, losing out to fast food restaurants that offer better pay and benefits for entry-level employees. At bottom, it is a lack of welders, not widgets, that must be overcome if the U.S. Navy is to grow its fleet.


As defense analyst David Alman outlined in a prize-winning essay for the U.S. Naval Institute’s Proceedings, the United States simply can’t win a warship race with China. The United States effectively gave up on commercial shipbuilding during the Reagan administration in the name of free trade. In the decades that followed, generous state subsidies helped China dominate commercial shipbuilding, and Beijing’s requirement that the sector be dual-use resulted in an industry that can shift to production and ship repair for the military during a conflict, much as U.S. shipyards did during World War II. The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence estimates that China now has 232 times the shipbuilding capacity of the United States. China built almost half the world’s new ships in 2022, whereas U.S. shipyards produced just 0.13 percent.


Policymakers also need to make hard choices and limit naval deployments. Though the Navy is shrinking, its missions aren’t. A high operational tempo, manpower shortfalls, and an aging fleet are fueling a readiness crisis that is burning out sailors and ships.


The preeminence of presence missions also has more subtle consequences. After 20 years of largely uncontested deployments to the Middle East, the U.S. Navy now has an opponent who shoots back: Yemen’s Houthis. But increased experience in missile and drone defense is outweighed by a dexerious drain on precision munitions. In the conflict with the Houthis, the Navy burned through more Tomahawk land attack missiles in one day than it purchased in all of 2023. Meanwhile, the Houthis can replace all equipment destroyed by U.S. attacks with just two shiploads from Iran, according to Gen. Michael Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command.

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

The costs of maintaining global presence are magnified by the state of Navy recruiting and retention. The service’s recruiting woes are undeniable. The Navy missed all of its recruiting goals in 2023, some by as much as 35 percent. The service projects a shortfall of 6,700 recruits this year, according to its chief personnel officer.


The United States can’t match the size of China’s fleet in the near or medium term. Deindustrialization, poor procurement choices, and a myopic fixation on the U.S. presence in the Middle East have seen to that. All that said, the U.S. Navy still retains several significant advantages in a potential conflict with China: submarine dominance, overall tonnage, blue-water experience, and support from capable allies. A major increase in joint munitions purchases and an end to the readiness drain of presence deployments to secondary theaters will enhance the Navy’s edge during the potential peak window for a Chinese move on Taiwan over the next decade. The alternative is grim. If conventional deterrence fails, it risks military defeat for the United States or something even more dangerous: nuclear confrontation between the world’s two superpowers.


"The shipbuilding industry is struggling to attract talent, losing out to fast food restaurants that offer better pay and benefits for entry-level employees."
'Nuff said.


Failing to attract workers because entry level fast food jobs pay better. If only there were an obvious solution.


I know, right? It’s like, maybe there’s a labor market out there or something?

我知道,对吧? 好像,也许有劳动力市场之类的东西?

Failing to attract workers because entry level fast food jobs pay better.
if you ever drive on I-95 near the connecticut/rhode island border there are billboards advertising electric boat submarine building jobs all over the highway. you basically need to pass a secret security clearance, piss clean on a drug test, and show up to do physical labor for the princely sum of... $20.53 - $24.53.
part of the reason why russia has been able to rearm so quickly is rapid expansion of salaries in their MIC, to the point where machinists and welders are now making money rivaling that of software developers and lawyers. if the US wants to pay entry level guys 100k and skilled guys 200k to build submarines they will be flooded with applications overnight. but that also accelerates the cost disease for a MIC that already spends too much of the national budget and delivers too little.

如果你曾经在靠近康涅狄格和罗德岛州边界的I-95公路上开车,你会发现公路上到处都是电船公司建造潜艇工作岗位的广告牌。基本上需要通过秘密安全审查,尿检通过毒品检查,然后去做体力劳动,报酬巨多……$20.53 - $24.53。

It's actually shocking how little those guys make given how well paying defense contractor jobs are in general. It's not hard to make six figures. So the natural question, is this the Navy's fault or is electric boat massively under paying their people and pocketing the profits. Subs ain't cheap, paying the people building them six figures should be easy to fit in the cost.


look at how many fucking jobs at electric boat have nothing to do with building electric boats

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

I've never worked on a contract with EB so I don't know. How bloated are they?


Are any of these jobs unx?

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Of course the companies are pocking the profits. General rule for private contractors working with the government: their will be little to no cost savings compared to the government doing it directly, but the employees will have way worse benefits and far less job security, as well as a decent chance of being paid less money.


Of course the companies are pocking the profits.
If so, they aren't doing a very good job at that. Both GDMS and HII, the two largest shipbuilders for the Navy, have had their profit margins decrease dramatically over the last several years. GDMS went from 9.9% in 2013 to 6.5% in 2023, HII dropped from 12.1% in 2016 to 6.8% in 2023. Shipbuilding in the US is a terrible business to be in. And if you look at the smaller yards, an excellent example is VT Halter Marine, which was sold in 2022 to Bollinger Shipbuilding for...fifteen million dollars. This was a yard that was on contract for a $1.9 billion USCG icebreaker program, yet the Singaporean owner jettisoned it at "we don't want it please take it" prices. Or look at Eastern Shipbuilding, who has a large contract for the Coast Guard OPC program, but was unable to raise the cash required to rebuild their yard after it got squished by Hurricane Michael in 2018, and thus had the majority of the orders pulled and re-ed to Austal.

如果是这样,他们在这方面做得不是很好。美国海军最大的两家造船公司GDMS和HII的利润空间在过去几年里急剧下降。GDMS从2013年的9.9%下降到2023年的6.5%,HII从2016年的12.1%下降到2023年的6.8%。在美国,造船业是一个糟糕的行业。如果你看看较小的船厂,一个很好的例子是VT Halter Marine,它在2022年被卖给了Bollinger Shipbuilding。1500万美元。这个船厂手握19亿美元的USCG破冰船项目合同,但新加坡业主以“不要了,请拿走”的价格抛弃了它。或者看看东方造船公司,该公司与海岸警卫队的OPC项目签订了一份大合同,但在2018年被飓风迈克尔摧毁后,无法筹集重建船厂所需的现金,因此大部分订单都被撤回并重新分配给了奥斯塔。

That's the big problem for US shipbuilders, they lack the cash on hand to make massive single investments, and are not appealing targets for major investors. It also means that they struggle to do things like increase pay, since that expenditure makes it more difficult still to attract outside money. And for the record, these companies have been investing in upgrades and expansions to their facilities, especially Electric Boat which has spent several billion dollars of internal and external (private investors + Navy funding for yard improvements).


The public yards are actually little better, the pay is pretty similar. Those yards also have massive problems with their facilities, to the point where the Navy is spending over twenty billion dollars over the next two decades to revitalize those yards, including new or upgraded drydocks, new shops, and new equipment for those yards.


You also need to be sub-40 years old or they aren't interested in training you.


Huntington Ingalls has a apprentice program that starts at $22/hr and raises to $29 by the end, with a pay raise every 500 hours worked. Apprenticship is 6000 - 8000 hours. So, on average without overtime (2080 hours a year) it can take 3-4 years till Journeyman. Which is fine if your young and just starting out, but no one in a established career is going to switch to make less money and have a lower qol.

亨廷顿英格尔斯有一个学徒计划,起薪为每小时22美元,最后涨到每小时29美元,每工作500小时加薪一次。学徒期为6000 - 8000小时。所以,如果没有加班(每年2080小时),你可能需要3-4年才能成为熟练工。如果你还年轻,刚刚起步,这没什么,但对于职业生涯成熟的人士,没有人会跳槽去赚更少的钱和更低的生活质量。

starts at $22/hr and raises to $29 by the end
I made that money in 2014 testing software for a big bank and by 2016 exceeded $29/hr working for postal IT. if you want people to work in the trades, they must pay!!


you basically need to pass a secret security clearance, piss clean on a drug test, and show up to do physical labor for the princely sum of... $20.53 - $24.53.

“基本上需要通过秘密安全审查,尿检通过毒品检查,然后去做体力劳动,报酬是……$20.53 - $24.53。”

So the job requires no qualifications whatsoever - in fact it teaches you a trade and gives a certificate - and it pays double of a fast food job(lowest level McDonald's job pays less than $10) that is nothing but a dead end.
What are we crying about again?


This is CT we are talking about. The minimum wage in CT is 15.69/hr. 20-24/hr is pretty entry level, you can absolutely make close to that just delivering pizza, sometimes more if we count tips on a really good night.
As stated above, you have to jumps through many more hoops to make as much as someone who's been working at McDonald's or the local pizza joint for a year or two.


So the job requires no qualifications whatsoever -
getting a security clearance is a qualification. more than 20% of adult men in the US have been arrested and probably can't get a favorable adjudication on a SF-86 due to their criminal record. an even larger number use or sell drugs and can't pass a screening either.
if you look at who exits the gates at the electric boat plant its pretty much all older white guys, because they're the only ones who can meet that requirement.


Getting a clearance is such a pain in the ass, plus it takes months. You're asking guys to apply for a job and then wait 6+ months to start, for $20/hr? Of course they're hurting.

获得许可太麻烦了,而且要花好几个月。你让人申请一份工作,然后等6个多月才能开始,每小时给20美元? 他们当然不爽了。

You're asking guys to apply for a job and then wait 6+ months to start, for $20/hr?
I interviewed with the post office in april 2016 and didn't start until august because of their SF-85P process taking forever. Now imagine asking working class people to put everything on hold to make $20 starting.


Yeah I have no idea which office would be running clearances for shipyard workers, and the speed of processing varies office to office. 6 months would be pretty quick, so that would be for white US citizens with no connections to any other country, no foreign contacts, no drug or criminal history, no foreign travel, etc


But the workforce of the 21st century is a lot more diverse than that, particularly when you're looking at manufacturing or other manual labor jobs.


While waiting months or years for their clearance, those guys can go get a job at a grocery store and be making more money per hour by the time their clearance goes through.

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

In that region you can get a job working at Trader Joe's or Whole Foods/etc with 0 prior experience getting paid $20+/hr. Plus, no drug tests, no security clearance, and very little risk of workplace death.
You don't even have to work in the horror that is food service to get money equivalent to working in a naval shipyard.
Maybe if we look at Pascagoula or Mobile shipyards the calculus is a little different, but idk what the pay for shipyard workers is there.

在那个地区,你可以在Trader Joe's或Whole Foods等不要求任何工作经验的地方找到一份工作,每小时工资20美元以上。而且不需要药检,不需要安全检查,工作死亡的风险也很小。

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

The tax payers spend 800 billion and the people doing the actual work get pennies?


And entry level fast food jobs don't even pay that well, in many cities it's a poverty wage. You can get better pay working in a warehouse or factory, and you can get paid even more working the nice air conditioned office attached to the factory.
America's salaries don't reflect the value of work at all, this has been an issue for a long time, and it will continue to be an issue for a long time.


The US has been a maritime power for 200 years but now it can’t build ships. That’s not going to end well.


很赞 8