话题讨论:为什么美国海军的造船能力这么拉了?
2024-05-24 碧波荡漾恒河水 6578
正文翻译

After decades of strategic drift and costly acquisition failures, the U.S. Navy is sailing straight into a storm it can’t avoid.

在经历了几十年的战略漂移和代价高昂的采购失败后,美国海军正直接驶向一场无法躲避的风暴。
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As evidenced by the Biden administration’s latest budget request, fiscal constraints are forcing the Navy to cut procurement requests, delay modernization programs, and retire ships early. The Navy’s budget for the 2025 fiscal year calls for decommissioning 19 ships—including three nuclear-powered attack submarines and four guided-missile cruisers—while procuring only six new vessels. The full scope of what military analysts have long warned would be the “Terrible ’20s” is now evident: The expensive upgrading of the U.S. nuclear triad, simultaneous modernization efforts across the services, and the constraint of rising government debt are compelling the Pentagon to make tough choices about what it can and cannot pay for.

正如拜登政府最近的预算请求所证明的那样,财政限制迫使海军削减采购请求,推迟现代化项目,并提前退役船只。美国海军2025财年的预算要求退役19艘舰艇,其中包括3艘核动力攻击潜艇和4艘导弹巡洋舰,同时只采购6艘新舰艇。军事分析人士长期以来所警告的“可怕的20年代”的全部范围现在一眼可见:美国核三位一体的昂贵升级,同时各军种的现代化努力,以及不断上升的政府债务的约束,迫使五角大楼在它能支付和不能支付的问题上做出艰难的选择。

Workforce shortages and supply chain issues are also limiting shipbuilding capacity. The defense industrial base is still struggling to recover from post-Cold War budget cuts that dramatically shrank U.S. defense manufacturing. The Navy needs more shipyard capacity, but finding enough qualified workers for the yards remains the biggest barrier to expanding production. The shipbuilding industry is struggling to attract talent, losing out to fast food restaurants that offer better pay and benefits for entry-level employees. At bottom, it is a lack of welders, not widgets, that must be overcome if the U.S. Navy is to grow its fleet.

劳动力短缺和供应链问题也限制了造船能力。国防工业基础依然难以从冷战后大幅缩减的美国国防制造业预算削减中恢复过来。海军需要更多的造船厂产能,但为船厂找到足够的合格工人仍然是扩大生产的最大障碍。造船业难以吸引人才,输给了为初级员工提供更高薪酬和福利的快餐店。归根结底,如果美国海军要扩大其舰队,就必须克服的问题是缺乏焊工,而不是小部件。

As defense analyst David Alman outlined in a prize-winning essay for the U.S. Naval Institute’s Proceedings, the United States simply can’t win a warship race with China. The United States effectively gave up on commercial shipbuilding during the Reagan administration in the name of free trade. In the decades that followed, generous state subsidies helped China dominate commercial shipbuilding, and Beijing’s requirement that the sector be dual-use resulted in an industry that can shift to production and ship repair for the military during a conflict, much as U.S. shipyards did during World War II. The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence estimates that China now has 232 times the shipbuilding capacity of the United States. China built almost half the world’s new ships in 2022, whereas U.S. shipyards produced just 0.13 percent.

正如国防分析家大卫·阿尔曼在为《美国海军研究所学报》撰写的获奖文章中所概述的那样,美国根本无法赢得与中国的军舰竞赛。在里根政府时期,美国实际上以自由贸易的名义放弃了商业造船业。在随后的几十年里,慷慨的国家补贴帮助中国主导了商业造船业,中国政府对该行业军民两用的要求导致该行业可以在冲突期间转向为军方生产和修理船只,就像美国造船厂在二战期间所做的那样。美国海军情报局估计,中国现在的造船能力是美国的232倍。2022年,中国建造了全球近一半的新船,而美国造船厂只生产了0.13%。

Policymakers also need to make hard choices and limit naval deployments. Though the Navy is shrinking, its missions aren’t. A high operational tempo, manpower shortfalls, and an aging fleet are fueling a readiness crisis that is burning out sailors and ships.

决策者还需要做出艰难的选择,限制海军部署。尽管海军规模正在缩小,但其任务却没有缩小。高作战速度、人力短缺和舰队老化加剧了战备危机,导致水兵和舰船耗尽。

The preeminence of presence missions also has more subtle consequences. After 20 years of largely uncontested deployments to the Middle East, the U.S. Navy now has an opponent who shoots back: Yemen’s Houthis. But increased experience in missile and drone defense is outweighed by a dexerious drain on precision munitions. In the conflict with the Houthis, the Navy burned through more Tomahawk land attack missiles in one day than it purchased in all of 2023. Meanwhile, the Houthis can replace all equipment destroyed by U.S. attacks with just two shiploads from Iran, according to Gen. Michael Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command.

驻留任务的突出地位也有更微妙的后果。美国海军在中东地区进行了20年的基本无争议部署后,现在有了一个反击的对手:也门的胡塞武装。但是,在导弹和无人机防御方面增加的经验被有害的精确弹药消耗所抵消。在与胡塞武装的冲突中,美国海军一天内消耗的战斧(Tomahawk)对地攻击导弹比2023年全年购买的还要多。与此同时,据美国中央司令部司令库利拉说,胡塞武装只需从伊朗运来两艘船的武器,就能替换被美军摧毁的所有装备。
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The costs of maintaining global presence are magnified by the state of Navy recruiting and retention. The service’s recruiting woes are undeniable. The Navy missed all of its recruiting goals in 2023, some by as much as 35 percent. The service projects a shortfall of 6,700 recruits this year, according to its chief personnel officer.

维持全球存在的成本被海军的招募和保留状况放大了。不可否认的是,该军种的招聘困境。海军未能实现2023年的所有征兵目标,其中一些目标的降幅高达35%。美国陆军首席人事官表示,预计今年的新兵缺口为6700人。

The United States can’t match the size of China’s fleet in the near or medium term. Deindustrialization, poor procurement choices, and a myopic fixation on the U.S. presence in the Middle East have seen to that. All that said, the U.S. Navy still retains several significant advantages in a potential conflict with China: submarine dominance, overall tonnage, blue-water experience, and support from capable allies. A major increase in joint munitions purchases and an end to the readiness drain of presence deployments to secondary theaters will enhance the Navy’s edge during the potential peak window for a Chinese move on Taiwan over the next decade. The alternative is grim. If conventional deterrence fails, it risks military defeat for the United States or something even more dangerous: nuclear confrontation between the world’s two superpowers.

在近期或中期,美国无法与中国的舰队规模匹敌。去工业化、糟糕的采购选择,以及对美国在中东存在的短视,都导致了这一点。总而言之,在与中国的潜在冲突中,美国海军仍然保留了几个重要的优势:潜艇优势,总吨位,蓝水经验,以及有能力的盟友的支持。联合军需品采购的大幅增加,以及结束将战备耗尽的存在部署到次要战区,将增强海军在未来十年中国大陆对台行动的潜在高峰窗口期间的优势。另一种选择是严峻的。如果常规威慑失败,美国将面临军事失败的风险,或者出现更危险的情况:世界两个超级大国之间的核对抗。

评论翻译
VoteonFeb8
"The shipbuilding industry is struggling to attract talent, losing out to fast food restaurants that offer better pay and benefits for entry-level employees."
'Nuff said.

“造船业难以吸引人才,输给了为初级员工提供更高薪酬和福利的快餐店。”
不多说了。

Gooch_Limdapl
Failing to attract workers because entry level fast food jobs pay better. If only there were an obvious solution.

无法吸引员工,因为入门级的快餐工作薪水更高。要是有个明显的解决办法就好了。

Rob71322
I know, right? It’s like, maybe there’s a labor market out there or something?

我知道,对吧? 好像,也许有劳动力市场之类的东西?

dump_reddits_ipo
Failing to attract workers because entry level fast food jobs pay better.
if you ever drive on I-95 near the connecticut/rhode island border there are billboards advertising electric boat submarine building jobs all over the highway. you basically need to pass a secret security clearance, piss clean on a drug test, and show up to do physical labor for the princely sum of... $20.53 - $24.53.
part of the reason why russia has been able to rearm so quickly is rapid expansion of salaries in their MIC, to the point where machinists and welders are now making money rivaling that of software developers and lawyers. if the US wants to pay entry level guys 100k and skilled guys 200k to build submarines they will be flooded with applications overnight. but that also accelerates the cost disease for a MIC that already spends too much of the national budget and delivers too little.

无法吸引员工,因为入门级的快餐工作薪水更高。
如果你曾经在靠近康涅狄格和罗德岛州边界的I-95公路上开车,你会发现公路上到处都是电船公司建造潜艇工作岗位的广告牌。基本上需要通过秘密安全审查,尿检通过毒品检查,然后去做体力劳动,报酬巨多……$20.53 - $24.53。
俄罗斯之所以能够如此迅速地重新武装起来,部分原因是其军工复合体的工资迅速上涨,以至于机械师和焊工现在赚的钱可以与软件开发人员和律师相媲美。如果美国想支付入门级工人10万美元,熟练工人20万美元来建造潜艇,他们一夜之间就会被应聘申请淹没。但这也会加速军工复合体的成本顽疾,它已经花费了太多的国家预算,但产出甚微。

thereddaikon
It's actually shocking how little those guys make given how well paying defense contractor jobs are in general. It's not hard to make six figures. So the natural question, is this the Navy's fault or is electric boat massively under paying their people and pocketing the profits. Subs ain't cheap, paying the people building them six figures should be easy to fit in the cost.

考虑到国防承包商的工作一般都是高薪,这些人的收入居然这么少,真是令人震惊。赚六位数并不难。所以自然的问题是,这是海军的错,还是电船公司给员工的工资过低,并将利润收入囊中。潜艇不便宜,付给建造潜艇的人六位数的工资,在成本中应该很容易消化掉。

dump_reddits_ipo
look at how many fucking jobs at electric boat have nothing to do with building electric boats

看看他妈的电船公司有多少岗位跟造电船毛关系都没有。
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thereddaikon
I've never worked on a contract with EB so I don't know. How bloated are they?

我从来没有和EB签过合同,所以我不知道。他们有多臃肿?

redEntropy_
Are any of these jobs unx?

这些工作有工会吗?
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Prince_Ire
Of course the companies are pocking the profits. General rule for private contractors working with the government: their will be little to no cost savings compared to the government doing it directly, but the employees will have way worse benefits and far less job security, as well as a decent chance of being paid less money.

当然,这些公司正在把利润装进口袋。与政府合作的私人承包商的一般规则是:相比于政府直接做,承包商几乎没有节省成本,但雇员的福利要差得多,工作保障要少得多,而且很有可能得到更少的钱。

elitecommander
Of course the companies are pocking the profits.
If so, they aren't doing a very good job at that. Both GDMS and HII, the two largest shipbuilders for the Navy, have had their profit margins decrease dramatically over the last several years. GDMS went from 9.9% in 2013 to 6.5% in 2023, HII dropped from 12.1% in 2016 to 6.8% in 2023. Shipbuilding in the US is a terrible business to be in. And if you look at the smaller yards, an excellent example is VT Halter Marine, which was sold in 2022 to Bollinger Shipbuilding for...fifteen million dollars. This was a yard that was on contract for a $1.9 billion USCG icebreaker program, yet the Singaporean owner jettisoned it at "we don't want it please take it" prices. Or look at Eastern Shipbuilding, who has a large contract for the Coast Guard OPC program, but was unable to raise the cash required to rebuild their yard after it got squished by Hurricane Michael in 2018, and thus had the majority of the orders pulled and re-ed to Austal.

如果是这样,他们在这方面做得不是很好。美国海军最大的两家造船公司GDMS和HII的利润空间在过去几年里急剧下降。GDMS从2013年的9.9%下降到2023年的6.5%,HII从2016年的12.1%下降到2023年的6.8%。在美国,造船业是一个糟糕的行业。如果你看看较小的船厂,一个很好的例子是VT Halter Marine,它在2022年被卖给了Bollinger Shipbuilding。1500万美元。这个船厂手握19亿美元的USCG破冰船项目合同,但新加坡业主以“不要了,请拿走”的价格抛弃了它。或者看看东方造船公司,该公司与海岸警卫队的OPC项目签订了一份大合同,但在2018年被飓风迈克尔摧毁后,无法筹集重建船厂所需的现金,因此大部分订单都被撤回并重新分配给了奥斯塔。

That's the big problem for US shipbuilders, they lack the cash on hand to make massive single investments, and are not appealing targets for major investors. It also means that they struggle to do things like increase pay, since that expenditure makes it more difficult still to attract outside money. And for the record, these companies have been investing in upgrades and expansions to their facilities, especially Electric Boat which has spent several billion dollars of internal and external (private investors + Navy funding for yard improvements).

美国造船商面临的大问题,是他们手头缺乏进行大规模单一投资的现金,对大型投资者来说也不是有吸引力的目标。这也意味着他们很难做加薪之类的事情,因为这样的支出使得吸引外部资金变得更加困难。根据记录,这些公司一直在投资升级和扩建其设施,尤其是电船公司,它已经花费了内部和外部的数十亿美元(私人投资者+海军资金用于船厂改善)。

The public yards are actually little better, the pay is pretty similar. Those yards also have massive problems with their facilities, to the point where the Navy is spending over twenty billion dollars over the next two decades to revitalize those yards, including new or upgraded drydocks, new shops, and new equipment for those yards.

国营造船厂实际上也好不到哪里去,工资也差不多。这些船厂的设施也存在巨大问题,以至于海军在未来20年里将花费200多亿美元来振兴这些船厂,包括新建或升级干船坞、新建车间和为这些船厂配备新设备。

EugeneStonersDIMagic
You also need to be sub-40 years old or they aren't interested in training you.

你还需要在40岁以下,否则他们对培训你不感兴趣。

redEntropy_
Huntington Ingalls has a apprentice program that starts at $22/hr and raises to $29 by the end, with a pay raise every 500 hours worked. Apprenticship is 6000 - 8000 hours. So, on average without overtime (2080 hours a year) it can take 3-4 years till Journeyman. Which is fine if your young and just starting out, but no one in a established career is going to switch to make less money and have a lower qol.

亨廷顿英格尔斯有一个学徒计划,起薪为每小时22美元,最后涨到每小时29美元,每工作500小时加薪一次。学徒期为6000 - 8000小时。所以,如果没有加班(每年2080小时),你可能需要3-4年才能成为熟练工。如果你还年轻,刚刚起步,这没什么,但对于职业生涯成熟的人士,没有人会跳槽去赚更少的钱和更低的生活质量。

dump_reddits_ipo
starts at $22/hr and raises to $29 by the end
I made that money in 2014 testing software for a big bank and by 2016 exceeded $29/hr working for postal IT. if you want people to work in the trades, they must pay!!

2014年,我在一家大银行测试软件就能赚这么多钱,到2016年,我在邮政IT部门工作时薪超过了29美元。如果想让人们在这个行业工作,他们必须付钱!!

ErectSuggestion
you basically need to pass a secret security clearance, piss clean on a drug test, and show up to do physical labor for the princely sum of... $20.53 - $24.53.

“基本上需要通过秘密安全审查,尿检通过毒品检查,然后去做体力劳动,报酬是……$20.53 - $24.53。”

So the job requires no qualifications whatsoever - in fact it teaches you a trade and gives a certificate - and it pays double of a fast food job(lowest level McDonald's job pays less than $10) that is nothing but a dead end.
What are we crying about again?

因此,这份工作不需要任何资格证书——事实上,它教你一门手艺,并颁发证书——而且它的薪水是快餐工作的两倍(麦当劳最低级别的工作工资不到10美元),这只是一个死胡同。
我们又在哭喊什么?

smartuy
This is CT we are talking about. The minimum wage in CT is 15.69/hr. 20-24/hr is pretty entry level, you can absolutely make close to that just delivering pizza, sometimes more if we count tips on a really good night.
As stated above, you have to jumps through many more hoops to make as much as someone who's been working at McDonald's or the local pizza joint for a year or two.

我们说的是CT。CT的最低工资是每小时15.69美元。20-24小时是入门级水平,只送披萨就能赚到差不多的钱,如果算上晚上的小费,有时还会更多。
如上所述,要想和那些在麦当劳或当地披萨店工作一两年的人挣得一样多,你必须跨越更多的障碍。

dump_reddits_ipo
So the job requires no qualifications whatsoever -
getting a security clearance is a qualification. more than 20% of adult men in the US have been arrested and probably can't get a favorable adjudication on a SF-86 due to their criminal record. an even larger number use or sell drugs and can't pass a screening either.
if you look at who exits the gates at the electric boat plant its pretty much all older white guys, because they're the only ones who can meet that requirement.

获得安全许可就是一种资格。在美国,超过20%的成年男性被逮捕过,由于他们的犯罪记录,他们可能无法在SF-86上获得有利的裁决。使用或销售毒品的人数甚至更多,他们也无法通过筛查。
你看看从电船厂的大门出来的人几乎都是年长的白人,因为他们是唯一能满足这个要求的人。

gazpachoid
Getting a clearance is such a pain in the ass, plus it takes months. You're asking guys to apply for a job and then wait 6+ months to start, for $20/hr? Of course they're hurting.

获得许可太麻烦了,而且要花好几个月。你让人申请一份工作,然后等6个多月才能开始,每小时给20美元? 他们当然不爽了。

dump_reddits_ipo
You're asking guys to apply for a job and then wait 6+ months to start, for $20/hr?
I interviewed with the post office in april 2016 and didn't start until august because of their SF-85P process taking forever. Now imagine asking working class people to put everything on hold to make $20 starting.

我在2016年4月面试了邮局,直到8月才开始面试,因为他们的SF-85P流程太长了。现在想象一下,让工薪阶层的人放下一切,只为了20美元的起薪。

gazpachoid
Yeah I have no idea which office would be running clearances for shipyard workers, and the speed of processing varies office to office. 6 months would be pretty quick, so that would be for white US citizens with no connections to any other country, no foreign contacts, no drug or criminal history, no foreign travel, etc

是的,我不知道是哪个部门负责造船厂工人的审批,而且各个部门的处理速度也不一样。6个月算很快了,所以这将是针对与任何其他国家没有联系,没有外国联系,没有毒品或犯罪历史,没有出国旅行等的美国白人公民。

But the workforce of the 21st century is a lot more diverse than that, particularly when you're looking at manufacturing or other manual labor jobs.

但21世纪的劳动力比这多样化得多,特别是当你看到制造业或其他体力劳动工作时。

While waiting months or years for their clearance, those guys can go get a job at a grocery store and be making more money per hour by the time their clearance goes through.

在等待几个月或几年的审批期间,这些人可以去杂货店找份工作,当他们的审批通过时,每小时赚更多的钱。
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gazpachoid
In that region you can get a job working at Trader Joe's or Whole Foods/etc with 0 prior experience getting paid $20+/hr. Plus, no drug tests, no security clearance, and very little risk of workplace death.
You don't even have to work in the horror that is food service to get money equivalent to working in a naval shipyard.
Maybe if we look at Pascagoula or Mobile shipyards the calculus is a little different, but idk what the pay for shipyard workers is there.

在那个地区,你可以在Trader Joe's或Whole Foods等不要求任何工作经验的地方找到一份工作,每小时工资20美元以上。而且不需要药检,不需要安全检查,工作死亡的风险也很小。
你甚至不需要在恐怖的食品服务行业工作,就能得到相当于在海军造船厂工作的钱。
也许如果我们看看帕斯卡古拉或莫比尔造船厂,计算会有点不同,但我想知道那里造船厂工人的工资是多少。

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reallyO_o
The tax payers spend 800 billion and the people doing the actual work get pennies?

纳税人花了8000亿,而真正干活的人却只能拿仨瓜俩枣?

Panzerkatzen
And entry level fast food jobs don't even pay that well, in many cities it's a poverty wage. You can get better pay working in a warehouse or factory, and you can get paid even more working the nice air conditioned office attached to the factory.
America's salaries don't reflect the value of work at all, this has been an issue for a long time, and it will continue to be an issue for a long time.

入门级的快餐工作根本没有那么高的工资,在许多城市,这种工资很少。在仓库或工厂工作可以获得更高的薪水,在工厂有空调的办公室工作可以获得更高的薪水。
美国的工资根本不能反映工作的价值,这个问题已经存在很长时间了,而且还将持续很长时间。

surrealpolitik
The US has been a maritime power for 200 years but now it can’t build ships. That’s not going to end well.

200年来,美国一直是海上强国,但现在它不会造船。这不会有好结果的。

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