为何说全球化已经结束了
2024-05-28 遐怪 7614
正文翻译

The collapse of the middle class is driving the abandonment of a system we believed was here to stay

中产阶级的崩溃,正在推动我们抛弃一个我们相信会继续存在的体系

We can already see that modern states are facing such serious challenges that foreign policy is being subordinated to domestic considerations everywhere. This is true of Western countries, Russia, China, India, and everyone else. Indeed, it highlights what existing academic theories are unable to understand simply because of their methodology.

我们已经可以看到,现代国家正面临着如此严峻的挑战,以至于各国的外交政策都从属于国内考虑。西方国家、俄罗斯、中国、印度和其他所有国家都是如此。事实上,它强调了现有的学术理论仅仅因为其方法论而无法理解的内容。

One of the curious effects of the two world wars of the last century, and in particular of the emergence of incredibly power weapons in the possession of several powers – the mass use of which could lead to the cessation of sentient life on the planet – has been to increase the importance of the foreign policy activities of states in the broad sense. The horror that a military catastrophe would be universal and irreversible in its consequences, which gradually became apparent and finally became firmly rooted in the minds of people, has firmly placed questions of international stability among the first priorities for the public.

上个世纪的两次世界大战,特别是几个大国所拥有的威力惊人的武器的出现——大规模使用这种武器可能导致地球上有知觉的生命的灭绝——产生了一个奇怪的影响,那就是在广义上提高了各国外交政策活动的重要性。一场军事灾难的后果将是普遍的和不可逆转的,这种恐惧逐渐变得明显,并最终在人们的头脑中根深蒂固,这使国际稳定问题成为公众的首要优先事项之一。

In addition, industrial-scale warfare and economic globalization have contributed to the growing importance of issues directly related to external factors. The latter has, to a certain extent, lixed the development and even the very existence of any given state to the tasks it undertakes in the international arena. This has especially been true for medium-sized and small countries for which the waters of the modern world are too shark-infested to offer the possibility of a fully independent existence. But even in the case of the great powers, foreign policy issues have become so important over the past century that they are almost on a par with domestic concerns.

此外,工业规模的战争和经济全球化使与外部因素直接相关的问题日益重要。后者在一定程度上把任何国家的发展甚至存在本身同它在国际舞台上承担的任务联系起来。对于中小型国家来说尤其如此,对这些国家来说,现代世界的水域鲨鱼太多,无法提供完全独立存在的可能性。但即使对大国来说,外交政策问题在过去一个世纪里也变得如此重要,几乎与国内问题同等重要。

Moreover, the now universal market economy and comparative openness have indeed reduced the ability of different governments to fully determine the parameters of domestic development on their own. This has reinforced the perception that success or failure in the crucial task of keeping citizens happy will be decided via a country’s integration in the global system, which will solve most problems by itself. The practical consequence of this has been a historically unimaginable expansion of the diplomatic apparatus and, more generally, of the institutions that manage foreign relations. Huge numbers of officials, imbued with a sense of the importance of their work and their profession, are now responsible for their countries’ external affairs.

此外,现在普遍的市场经济和相对开放确实降低了各国政府完全自行决定国内发展参数的能力。这强化了一种看法,即在让公民幸福这一关键任务上的成败,将取决于一个国家融入全球体系的程度,而这将自行解决大多数问题。这种情况的实际后果是,外交机构以及更广泛地说,管理外交关系的机构出现了历史上难以想象的扩张。如今,大批官员对自己的工作和职业的重要性深信不疑,他们负责本国的对外事务。

And in this sense the global system of states has indeed been moving towards the European medi model, in which the government could interfere little in the daily lives of its subjects, especially in the spiritual life, and was happy to concern itself exclusively with foreign policy tasks. Only those powers that have most preserved the primacy of the national over the global could afford to retain sovereignty in the traditional sense of the word. First of all, this describes the United States, whose prioritizing of domestic policy over foreign policy gradually became a unique feature that has distinguished the superpower from all other countries in the world. But this order, which suited everyone, is now beginning to break down.

从这个意义上说,全球国家体系确实正在向欧洲中世纪模式发展,在这种模式下,政府很少干涉其臣民的日常生活,尤其是精神生活,并且乐于只关注外交政策任务。只有那些最能维护国家高于全球的首要地位的国家,才有能力维持传统意义上的主权。首先,这描述了美国,其国内政策优先于外交政策逐渐成为一个独特的特点,使超级大国区别于世界上所有其他国家。但这种适合所有人的秩序现在开始瓦解。

The first signs that things were moving towards something fundamentally new came with the emergence of such “universal” problems as various manifestations of climate change, plus the internet and the information revolution, and artificial intelligence. Some ten to fifteen years ago, the late Henry Kissinger was the first of the great thinkers of our time to point out that “problems are global, but their solutions remain national.” With this statement, the eminent statesman wanted to draw attention to the fact that the international community was not ready to develop consolidated approaches to solving problems that affect everyone.

随着气候变化等“普遍”问题的出现,以及互联网、信息革命和人工智能的出现,首次出现了事物正朝着全新的方向发展的迹象。大约10到15年前,已故的亨利·基辛格是我们这个时代的伟大思想家中第一个指出“问题是全球性的,但它们的解决方案仍然是各国的”。这位著名的政治家在发言中要提请注意这样一个事实,即国际社会还没有准备好制定统一的办法来解决影响到每个人的问题。

Rich, poor, and developing countries alike have been unable to make decisions based on a strategy of minimizing the losses of each while achieving a comparative good for all. The most striking example has been the development of international cooperation on climate change. In the space of a few years, it has evolved into a series of transactions between states based on the interests of their corporate sectors and related governmental preferences, or, as in the case of Russia, on scientifically based public policies in this area that also take into account national economic interests. Thus, even during the period of Western dominance in world affairs, and indeed at its expense, states have failed to create a single “supranational” program to deal with the consequences of a phenomenon that threatens to seriously disrupt individual regions.

富国、穷国和发展中国家都无法根据一种战略作出决定,即尽量减少各自的损失,同时实现所有国家的相对利益。最突出的例子就是发展应对气候变化的国际合作。在几年的时间里,它已经演变为国家之间基于企业部门利益和相关政府偏好的一系列交易,或者像俄罗斯一样,在这一领域基于科学的公共政策,同时考虑到国家经济利益。因此,即使是在西方主导世界事务的时期(实际上是以西方为代价),各国也未能制定一个单一的“超国家”计划,来应对可能严重扰乱个别地区的现象所带来的后果。

However, the problem is not limited to those issues, which have become relevant precisely as a result of recent changes and technological advances by mankind. The most important issue has been the growth of inequality, a concrete manifestation of which has been the decline in the incomes of large sections of the population and the gradual disappearance of the phenomenon of the “middle class” in most Western countries.

然而,问题并不限于这些问题,这些问题正是由于人类最近的变化和技术进步而变得相关的。最重要的问题是不平等的增长,其具体表现是大部分人口收入的下降和大多数西方国家“中产阶级”现象的逐渐消失。

The problem was most pronounced during the coronavirus pandemic, when the least well-off suffered the most. In the United States, this resulted in huge human losses that no one really cared about because of the peculiarities of the local socio-economic structure. In Russia, and most of the rest of Europe, the deaths of citizens from Covid were added to the already enormous costs of various types of social programs and health care. As a result of the intensive work of states to mitigate the immediate effects of the 2008-2009 crisis and the 2020-2022 pandemic, and at the same time to continue measures to stabilize budgets, the greatest concern now is the future of social programs that were the basis of welfare in the 20th century and the source of the wellbeing of the expansive middle class.

这个问题在新冠疫情期间最为突出,当时最不富裕的人受害最深。在美国,由于当地社会经济结构的特殊性,这导致了没有人真正关心的巨大人员损失。在俄罗斯和欧洲大部分其他国家,新冠肺炎造成的公民死亡,使各类社会项目和医疗保健的成本本已巨大。由于各国为减轻2008-2009年危机和2020-2022年大流行的直接影响而进行的密集工作,同时继续采取措施稳定预算,现在最令人担忧的是社会方案的未来,这些方案是20世纪福利的基础,也是不断扩大的中产阶级福利的来源。

But soon this will lead to a general crisis of a system that has provided stability in the form of a middle class that relies on savings. Thus, we will see a general decline in the economic basis for citizens’ consent to the existing domestic political order. This applies primarily to Western countries, but Russia will not be spared the negative consequences of the collapse of a way of life that was at the center of the modern global economy and was the source of legitimacy for state intervention in the free market. All the more so because the consequences of the globalization of information, such as a certain erosion of control over the lives of subjects, have not disappeared. Even China, where the state’s information policy is the most consistent and subordinate to the tasks of the government and elites, faces this problem.

但很快,这将导致一个以依赖储蓄的中产阶级形式提供稳定的体系的普遍危机。因此,我们将看到公民对现有国内政治秩序的认同的经济基础普遍下降。这主要适用于西方国家,但俄罗斯也不能幸免于这种生活方式崩溃的负面后果,这种生活方式曾是现代全球经济的中心,也是国家干预自由市场的合法性来源。尤其如此,因为信息全球化的后果,例如对主体生活的某种控制的侵蚀,并没有消失。即使在中国,国家的信息政策是最一致的,服从于政府和精英的任务,也面临着这个问题。

As a result, states have to focus more and more on their immediate tasks, such as maintaining public peace among citizens. In the case of growing international political powers such as China or India, their sheer demographic size puts domestic issues at the top of the agenda. As a result, foreign policy activities take a back seat and are only considered in the context of internal struggles for unity (Russia, China, India) or the retention of power by elites that have become virtually irremovable in recent decades (the United States and major European countries).

因此,各国不得不越来越多地把注意力集中在他们的眼前任务上,比如维持公民之间的公共和平。就中国或印度等日益增长的国际政治大国而言,其庞大的人口规模使国内问题成为议程的重中之重。因此,外交政策活动退居次要地位,只有在内部团结斗争(俄罗斯、中国、印度)或近几十年来几乎不可动摇的精英阶层(美国和主要欧洲国家)保留权力的背景下才会被考虑。

This process has two interesting implications at a theoretical and practical level.
First, there is growing confusion among those whose professional responsibility it is to analyze international politics. One of America’s most prominent realists, Stephen Walt, in his recent articles has angrily drawn attention to the way in which the US government’s foreign policy decisions deviate from the logic of international life. It is also not uncommon to hear claims from Russian analysts about politics as such being dominated by purely foreign policy rationality.

这个过程在理论和实践层面上有两个有趣的含义。
首先,在那些以分析国际政治为专业职责的人士中,出现了越来越多的混乱。美国最著名的现实主义者之一斯蒂芬·沃尔特在最近的文章中愤怒地提请人们注意,美国政府的外交政策决定偏离了国际生活的逻辑。俄罗斯分析人士声称,政治本身被纯粹的外交政策理性所主导,这也并不罕见。

Second, there is a purely practical risk that governments preoccupied with domestic concerns will in fact pay insufficient attention to those issues of international life that remain fundamentally important. So far, the leading nuclear powers have shown themselves capable of looking after the survival of humanity, despite some shifts in their own priorities. One suspects, however, that it would be a little foolhardy to place all hope in the wisdom of our statesmen alone.

其次,存在一种纯粹实际的风险,即全神贯注于国内问题的政府实际上对那些仍然至关重要的国际生活问题重视不足。到目前为止,主要核大国已经表明,它们有能力照顾人类的生存,尽管它们自己的优先事项发生了一些变化。然而,有人怀疑,把所有希望都寄托在我们政治家的智慧上是有点鲁莽的。

评论翻译
steve drake
The Elites destroyed the middle class as the elites wanted all the money for themselves, The Elites also found it easier to keep the lower class's down by taxation. With tax's high for the workers the rich corporations get tax breaks and if they are huge they get to pay no tax's as they have to pay a certain group called Lobbyists who constantly tell the politicians how poor the wealthy 1% are after all it is unfair that the wealthy can't have at least 10 mansions around the world in 1000 acres whilst having to rub shoulders or even speak to the working class (god forbid)

精英们摧毁了中产阶级,因为精英们想把所有的钱都归自己所有。精英们还发现,通过征税来压制下层阶级更容易。由于工人的税收很高,富有的公司获得了税收减免,如果他们是大公司,他们就不用纳税,因为他们必须向一个叫做游说者的团体付钱,这个团体不断地告诉政客,富有的1%是多么的贫穷,毕竟,富人不能在1000英亩的土地上拥有至少10座豪宅,同时还要与工人阶级打交道,这是不公平的(上帝保佑)。

KillBill
But people in EU, USA, Canada, Australia, UK are still being tormented by governments infiltrated / subervient to WEF's elite globalists. These governments are winning public compliance with demands for intrusive behavioural changes that completely reset the balance of rights and responsibilities between citizens, society, markets, and the government. Instead of implementing policies to give effect to voter priorities, the emboldened dominant metropolitan elites are entirely dedicated to the proposition that citizens should be forced to live by their rules on what to say, think, read, watch, do. The elites are also intent on telling the people which cars and heating appliances to buy. What news to consume and from which ‘trusted’ source. In addition to the by now familiar censorship industrial complex that has gained a suffocating hold in the US, think of the proposed new censorship laws currently being enacted in Australia, Canada, Ireland, and Scotland.

但欧盟、美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、英国的人民仍然受到被渗透/屈服于世界经济论坛精英全球主义者的政府的折磨。这些国家的政府正在赢得公众的支持,要求政府做出具有侵入性的行为改变,彻底重置公民、社会、市场和政府之间的权利和责任平衡。胆大妄为的大都市主流精英们没有实施政策来落实选民的优先事项,而是完全致力于这样一种主张:应该强迫公民按照他们的规则生活,比如说什么、想什么、读什么、看什么、做什么。精英们还热衷于告诉人们该买哪些汽车和取暖设备,看什么新闻,从哪个“可信”的来源。除了我们现在所熟悉的审查工业联合体在美国已经获得了令人窒息的控制之外,想想澳大利亚、加拿大、爱尔兰和苏格兰目前正在制定的新的审查法律。

Moonman117
KillBill, Same old, same old...western governments say: 'The people gave us the mandate'

老样子,老样子……西方政府说:“人民给了我们授权。”

Milosh
Boiling it down: The human species rides a driverless, overcrowded bus speeding down a precipitous mountain road. The prospects are not good.

简而言之:人类乘坐一辆无人驾驶、拥挤不堪的公共汽车在险峻的山路上疾驰而下。前景不容乐观。

Jiiiisss
Fudealism was tried in the middle ages, and it didnt work then and it wont now. The pessants will take out their pitchforks and chase the evil king from the land as he has gotten fat and rich of their sweat and suffering.

中世纪就有人尝试过原教旨主义,当时行不通,现在也行不通。农民们会拿出干草叉,把邪恶的国王赶出这片土地,因为他靠农民们的汗水和苦难变得又肥又富。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


jpvjr71
Globalization is a concession to defeat. Additionally, it reduces the people to serfs.

全球化是对失败的让步。此外,它使人们沦为农奴。

oldfart
You try to rationalise "Man Made Global Warming" under the term "Climate Change".
IMO "Climate Change" is a natural phenomenon that has been occurring since the Earth gained an atmosphere.
Whereas "Man Made Global Warming" is another Globalist fear mongering exercise!

你试图用“气候变化”来合理化“人为的全球变暖”。
在我看来,“气候变化”是一种自然现象,自地球获得大气层以来一直在发生。
然而“人为的全球变暖”是另一个全球主义者散布恐惧的运动!

Rhinoskerous
Central Banking is the cause of this problem. It has enabled a financial elite to siphon away all the earnings of the masses, especially the middle class.

中央银行是造成这个问题的原因。它使金融精英能够吸走大众、尤其是中产阶级的所有收入。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


CHEVI789
I keep saying it, evil is in power, and these are the effects, and who are the evil?, well I'll let you answer that.

我一直在说,邪恶之辈掌权了,这些就是后果,谁是邪恶之辈呢?由你们来回答这个问题。

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