为什么美国财政部要回购自己的债券?
2024-07-01 国外新鲜事 4353
正文翻译

The size of the US Treasury market has expanded dramatically in recent years to more than $34tn, with greater demands on market liquidity. In particular, with the Federal Reserve's policy of raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet in response to inflation, as well as international geopolitical tensions and economic frictions, foreign central banks' demand for US Treasuries has declined, resulting in frequent liquidity challenges in the market.

​​近年来,美国国债市场规模急剧扩张,已超过34万亿美元,伴随而来的是对市场流动性的更高要求。尤其是随着美联储为应对通胀采取的升息和缩表政策,以及国际地缘政治紧张局势和经济摩擦,外国央行对美债的需求有所下降,导致市场频繁面临流动性挑战。

In this context, the US Treasury's repurchase of Treasury bonds, especially those with poor liquidity, aims to provide necessary liquidity support and maintain market stability by directly participating in market transactions.
The repurchase operations, which will be conducted through the New York Fed in cooperation with major dealers, are scheduled to repurchase up to $2 billion of long-term Treasury securities each week over the next three months. It is worth noting that the Treasury deliberately avoided the most liquid bonds in the repurchase market to ensure that the repurchase action was targeted to address the problem of market illiquidity.

在这样的背景下,美财政部回购国债,尤其是那些流动性较差的债券,旨在通过直接参与市场交易,提供必要的流动性支持,维护市场稳定。
回购操作将通过纽约联储与主要交易商合作进行,计划在未来三个月内每周最高回购20亿美元的长期国债。值得注意的是,财政部刻意避免回购市场中流动性最佳的债券,确保回购行动能针对性地解决市场流动性不足的问题。

评论翻译
@erikschall620
"Debt monetization is the final step before currency collapse!"

“债务货币化是货币崩溃前的最后一步!”

@UncleRuckus7600
But this step can take a long time

但这一步可能需要很长时间

@lawrencel2544
It will happen so plan accordingly

这会发生,所以要做好相应的计划

@richardbarron8869
SURE! JUST PRINT MONEY UNTIL IT'S WORTH LESS THAN A PESO! SOUNDS LIKE A BAD IDEA!

当然!只要继续印钱,直到它的价值比比索还低!听起来像个坏主意!

@danielhutchinson6604
People are easily fooled?

人们很容易被愚弄?

@thetapheonix
It’s basically a bail out for banks with low interest treasuries.

这基本上是对持有低利率国债的银行的救助。

@omonkkonen6676
Yes. Banks can get rid of assets when they are in need of cash.

是的,当银行需要现金时,可以处置资产。

@user-lb8bg6kj9m
Bailouts and bonuses

救助和奖金

@anthonycarbone3826
The Fed can do this too but this is just the Treasury stepping in probably just to act like the Fed is not doing QE when in reality it is. Can you imagine the political pressure on the Fed from the Brandon administration in not allowing an easy money policy.

美联储也可以这样做,但这只是财政部介入,可能只是为了表现得好像美联储没有在进行量化宽松,但实际上是有的。你能想象布兰登政府在不允许宽松货币政策方面对美联储的政治压力吗?

@888strummer
The biggest bail out for banks is keeping mortgage rates above 7% which is more than double from just 2 years ago.

对银行最大的救助是将抵押贷款利率保持在7%以上,这比两年前的水平翻了一倍多。

@anthonycarbone3826
@888strummer You are talking about the consumer, when has any Democrat cared about the consumer? No they worry about the banks and financial institutions who they work for.

@888strummer 你在谈论消费者,什么时候有民主党人关心过消费者?不,他们担心的是他们为之工作的银行和金融机构。

@888strummer
@anthonycarbone3826 No clue what you are talking about; first of all nothing I said was political at all. But if you want to talk politics, then be honest. Neither party cares about the consumer. The dems are terrible and only care about the banks but the same goes for the repubs; with the exception of Trump. Trump knows if the consumer is weak then the economy eventually tanks so Trump puts in policies that help the consumer. But again; the biggest bail out to the banks has been the rates doubling in 2 years, with enough new mortgages and auto loans despite the sky high payments. That's where the banks are raking it in; plus the average credit card rate near 25%.

@anthonycarbone3826 我不知道你在说什么;首先,我说的完全没有政治色彩。但是如果你想谈政治,那么要诚实。两个党派都不关心消费者。民主党人很糟糕,只关心银行,但共和党人也是如此;除了特朗普。特朗普知道如果消费者疲软,经济最终会崩溃,所以特朗普实施了有助于消费者的政策。但再次强调;对银行最大的救助是利率在两年内翻了一番,尽管支付高昂的费用,仍有足够的新抵押贷款和汽车贷款。银行就是在这里赚大钱的;此外,平均信用卡利率接近25%。

@anthonycarbone3826
@888strummer Plus they pay zippo interest rates on all of the money they hold in checking and savings accounts from the consumer.

@888strummer 另外,他们对所有从消费者那里持有的支票和储蓄账户中的资金支付极低的利率。

@jaketyler9191
borrowing money to pay other debt really just sounds like a massive ponzi scheme

借钱来偿还其他债务听起来像是一个巨大的庞氏骗局
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@sumralltt
100% agree!

完全同意!
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@niurkarey3254
They are for sure making record profits doing this. — Crazy times!!

他们通过这样做肯定创造了创纪录的利润。——疯狂的时代!!

@basook6116
American tax payers have to pay for it

美国纳税人必须为此买单

@ssuwandi3240
Not always, they could buy gold or silver

并不总是这样,他们可以购买黄金或白银

@MrJchang27
You got it! Buy everything with no money; just print more money! It is "a balance trick"

你说对了!买一切不用钱的东西;只要多印钱!这是“平衡的把戏”
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@ekcoylejr
I believe it is purchased at a discount in the open market. So they are actually saving money. Correct me if I'm wrong.

我相信这是在公开市场上以折扣价购买的。所以他们实际上是在省钱。如果我错了,请纠正我。

@danielhutchinson6604
@ekcoylejr They appear to have confused a lot of people with economic imagination. The original purpose of the Fiat Currency was to ensure the value of US Dollars with the sales of Treasury Notes. That was what they explained in 1970.
So Treasury buying the Paper that is supposed to support the FED printing Dollars, appears to be of no actual value to anyone but the Treasury. For 20 years Treasury has not been accomplishing the obxtive they proposed to sell the Fiat Currency.
They offer a lot of inter-government department sharing of funds to provide an appearance of Value. But the USA is basically pointing an Empty Gun at an economic situation.
Senator Tommy Tuberville said the USA is "Dead Broke" Perhaps He was not supposed to say that?

@ekcoylejr 他们似乎用经济想象力混淆了很多人。法定货币的最初目的是通过出售国库券来确保美元的价值。这是他们在1970年解释的。
因此,财政部购买那些应该支持美联储印钞的票据,似乎对除了财政部以外的任何人都没有实际价值。20年来,财政部并没有实现他们提出的出售法定货币的目标。
他们提供了大量政府部门间的资金共享,以提供价值的表象。但美国基本上是在对着经济形势指空枪。
参议员汤米·图贝维尔说美国“已经破产” 也许他不应该说这个?

@GeorgeSchneider8889
They are saving a ton of money. They should do $20B instead of $2B.

他们省了一大笔钱。他们应该做200亿美元而不是20亿美元。

@DougDeYoung-gt4id
The key is always WHO is getting paid off.

关键是谁得到了好处。

@clintcowan9424
How do I get on that list. Lol

我怎么上那个名单。哈哈

@DougDeYoung-gt4id
Sorry "It's a big club but you're not in it" George Carlin

对不起,“这是一个大俱乐部,但你不在里面”——乔治·卡林
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@tatianastarcic
Treasury yields and other safe cash-like investments are raising high returns, yet most investors believe this is a good time to buy stocks than gold despite crash. I'd love to spread across $400k into profit-yielding dividend equities and end the year well, but unsure of which to acquire.

国债收益率和其他类似现金的安全投资正在带来高回报,但大多数投资者认为尽管市场崩溃,现在是购买股票而不是黄金的好时机。我很想将40万美元投资于盈利的分红股,并在年底有个好收成,但不确定该购买哪些。

@BridgetMiller-
all the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task

祝你一切顺利,趁低价买入实际上是投资股票的最佳方式之一,顾问最适合这样的任务

@larsnystrom6698
In private financial terms, they are using one credit card to pay off the debt on another card. We have heard about that with people with terrible finances!

在私人财务方面,他们用一张信用卡来偿还另一张卡的债务。我们听说过那些财务状况糟糕的人这样做!

@rolandbraun1197
Don't forget to mention that the second credit card charges a higher rate of interest.!!

别忘了提第二张信用卡收取更高的利息。!!

@glengarrison3441
Gonna party like it’s 1929

要像1929年一样狂欢

@enzoh7763
Sorry to ask, Since wall street crash in 1929, What's the correlation to this buyback?

抱歉请问,自1929年华尔街崩盘以来,这次回购有什么关联?

@glengarrison3441
Don’t apologize…..we have entered Triffin's paradox. We have to create liquidity to meet the eurodollar demand or offshore dollars. During times of inflation our FED must increase rates to offset or institute quantitative tightening. Also our treasury has the obligation to cut spending, which they will never do so somebody has to buy the debt. When foreign entities see the debasement of the reserve currency they stop purchasing the debt and confidence erodes. At that point fiscal dominance leads more debt and more debt and more debt…..hence Triffin’s paradox.

不用道歉...我们已经进入了特里芬悖论。我们必须创造流动性以满足欧洲美元或离岸美元的需求。在通货膨胀时期,我们的美联储必须加息以抵消或实施量化紧缩。此外,我们的财政部有义务削减开支,但他们永远不会这么做,所以有人必须购买债务。当外国实体看到储备货币贬值时,他们会停止购买债务,信心也会下降。此时财政主导地位会导致更多的债务...因此特里芬悖论。

@Timberhawk
party's over, oops, out of time. So tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1929... ♫

派对结束了,哎呀,时间到了。所以今晚我要像1929年一样狂欢...

@cheaplaughkennedy2318
@glengarrison3441 That’s really interesting. I was reading about Special Drawing Rights that were created in 1969 by the I.M.F. In response to the Triffin Paradox and the less faith that countries had in the ability of the U.S. government to convert those dollars to gold.

@glengarrison3441 这真的很有趣。我在阅读关于特别提款权的资料,它是国际货币基金组织在1969年为了应对特里芬悖论以及各国对美国政府将美元兑换成黄金的能力信心不足而创建的。
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@texdevildog9174
get in physical assets

投资实物资产

@mr.g1758
Or 1837.

或者1837年。

@suacm3223
The govt is doing something shady. Expect bigger unexpected disaster.

政府在做一些可疑的事情。预计会有更大的意外灾难。

@motrock93b
So. It's like a home owner swapping its low interest rate mortgage for a higher interest rate, shorter term mortgage. Brilliant.

所以,这就像房主将低利率抵押贷款换成高利率、短期抵押贷款。太聪明了。

@Daniyoyo
Perfect if you need the money for a cash and term

如果你需要现金和期限,这很完美
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@williamwei6175
proportionally? quite small

按比例?相当小

@zenastronomy
the author missed a big point. bonds value severely drop when interest rates rise. so a 100 dollar bond issuing 1% when interest rates rise to 5%. it's value will drop to 20 dollars. because 20 dollar bond today at 5% will give you the same return as a 100 dollar bond from years ago giving 1%.
the drop isn't as steep as this, as the maths takes into account maturity when the bonds face value is paid out. but I hope you get the point.
this then reduces the amount of money at face value the government has to pay out. so it is very possible that overall it is reducing the supply of money when the maturity date of those bonds would have caused a massive influx of more money into the economy.

作者忽略了一个大问题。利率上升时,债券价值会大幅下降。所以当利率上升到5%时,一张面值100美元的债券发行1%的收益率,它的价值会下降到20美元。因为今天20美元的债券在5%的收益率下会给你带来与几年前1%收益率的100美元债券相同的回报。
下降并没有这么陡峭,因为数学考虑了债券到期时支付的面值。但我希望你能明白这一点。
这减少了政府必须支付的面值金额。因此,整体上可能会减少货币供应量,因为这些债券到期时会导致大量资金涌入经济。

but again, it all depends on what price the fed is buying these bonds at. Below or above fair value, will determine who gets the extra money and profits off the trade.
this is one of the scams fed and banks do. how they steal or transfer wealth from foreign countries and usa government to their own private banks.
so it really depends on what price the fed is buying these bonds at. As to whether it is a good or bad decision and for whom. As good for banks often means bad for you, your government and china.

但这又取决于美联储以什么价格购买这些债券。低于或高于公允价值,将决定谁在交易中获得额外的资金和利润。
这是美联储和银行进行的骗局之一。他们如何从外国和美国政府窃取或转移财富到他们自己的私人银行。
所以这真的取决于美联储以什么价格购买这些债券。这是否是一个好的或坏的决定以及对谁而言。对银行有利通常意味着对你、你的政府和中国不利。

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@pt239
They are issuing bills at 5% to buy back long bonds at 4.3% to drive down long yield to save the bank and economy but destroy treasury balance sheet

他们以5%的利率发行国债以4.3%的利率回购长期债券,以降低长期收益率来拯救银行和经济,但却破坏了财政部的资产负债表

@FreedomTalkMedia
Except they can buy their mortgage instead of paying it off. Buying the mortgage costs less than paying it off, when interest rates have gone up.

除了他们可以购买自己的抵押贷款而不是还清它。当利率上升时,购买抵押贷款的成本低于还清它的成本。

@mohdpolaris3403
Sounds like scam

听起来像骗局

@dsevenb
That’s because it is.

因为确实是。

@squarebusinessofficial
What do you think the whole monetary system is? paying debt with debt

你认为整个货币系统是什么?用债务支付债务

@richardrodriguez-dj1xn
It is

确实是

@NerdyX90
END THE FEDERAL RESERVE!!

结束美联储!!

@frankjoseph4273
His family is selling fried fish face sandwiches

他家在卖炸鱼脸三明治

@imaginativename
Wow! Bought back treasuries! (created from thin air and subsequent interest also money printed from thin air) WOW AMAZING!!!

哇!回购国债!(凭空创造的,以及随之产生的利息也是凭空印出来的钱)哇,太神奇了!!!

@Jhh573
Provides liquidity in overall markets to allow for friends to exit nicely. Thanks Wyckoff for the tip.

为整体市场提供流动性,让朋友们顺利退出。感谢威科夫的提示。
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@vulpo
This will help those banks that were in trouble because of the large unrealized losses they had due to the large number of old very low interest treasuries that they held. But using a high interest credit card to pay off a low interest long term mortgage doesn't make much sense financially. So is this the Treasury department shoring up banks that were in trouble? Or is it just Janet Yellen giving a hand to her buddies in the banking system?

这将有助于那些因持有大量旧的非常低利率国债而遭受巨大未实现损失的银行。但用高利率信用卡来偿还低利率长期抵押贷款在经济上没有多大意义。那么这是财政部在支撑那些陷入困境的银行吗?还是只是珍妮特·耶伦在帮助她在银行系统中的朋友?

@AdventurerPrimefire
Except in order to trade out of the old bond the bank has to realize the loss. The treasury reduces its current debt load but has to pay a higher rate. And if there is a ten year bond that is nine years old and they issue a one year bill has anything really changed?

除了为了卖出旧债券,银行不得不实现损失。财政部减少了当前的债务负担,但必须支付更高的利率。如果有一张十年期债券已经发行了九年,他们发行一张一年期债券,真的有改变吗?

@vulpo
@AdventurerPrimefire So NOT a bank bailout.

所以不是银行救助。

@SmithSmithson1
This channel has some of the best financial content anywhere. Great work

这个频道有一些最好的金融内容。干得好

@slowridefpv9668
If they are buying them back at full value it’s a bailout.

如果他们以全价回购,那就是救助。
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@user-lb8bg6kj9m
Bailouts and bonuses for bankers

对银行家的救助和奖金
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@K.R.98
Have you considered this scenario: They buy back long term debt for short term debt, because they expect an economic crash and much lower interest rates?
Why would they want to pay someone 4.5% for 30 years if they can pay them over 5% for a few months and then they only need to pay half a percent over the next 29 years

你是否考虑过这种情况:他们用短期债务回购长期债务,因为他们预计经济崩溃和利率大幅下降?
如果他们可以在几个月内支付超过5%的利率,然后在接下来的29年内只需要支付0.5%,为什么他们要为30年支付4.5%的利率呢?

@K.R.98
I think that’s actually the case. We‘ll see an economic downturn with higher unemployment and probably deflation.
When you watch productivity data, revenue data, employment data and prices. Everything suggests deflation and recession. The only reason the price index holds up right now is because of rent and insurance. Basically slow, long-term pricing. Houses and cars and many other products become cheaper already.
I don’t know for 100% but that’s what I see.

我认为确实如此。我们将看到经济衰退和更高的失业率,可能还有通货紧缩。
当你看生产力数据、收入数据、就业数据和价格时。一切都表明通货紧缩和衰退。目前价格指数保持高位的唯一原因是租金和保险。基本上是缓慢的、长期的定价。房屋、汽车和许多其他产品已经变得更便宜了。
我不敢100%确定,但这是我所看到的。

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@aliasjones6381
Inflation will run much higher than 5% over the next 30 years. The market will not accept rates less than 3%, no matter what the Fed rate is.

未来30年通货膨胀率将超过5%。无论美联储利率是多少,市场都不会接受低于3%的利率。

@K.R.98
@aliasjones6381 Interesting view, but which facts do lead you to that conclusion?
Where should inflation (=higher prices) come from? The consumers are completely tapped out and drowning in debt. Every major economy needs cash more than ever. (China deflation, EU recession…)
The only way for higher inflation would be if the governments around the world would print money like there is no tomorrow and then hand it out to everyone across the globe

有趣的观点,但是什么事实导致你得出这个结论?
通货膨胀(=更高的价格)应该来自哪里?消费者已经完全被榨干,债台高筑。每个主要经济体比以往任何时候都需要现金。(中国通缩,欧盟衰退...)
更高通货膨胀的唯一方法是如果世界各国政府像没有明天一样印钱,然后把它分发给全球每个人

@jonathantaylor6926
@K.R.98 Recessions do not automatically create deflation. While that is often the case, it's not a guarantee. I could be wrong but .gov borrowing money to pay people to not work (unemployment insurance) seems awful inflationary to me... these people will produce zero, but continue to consume. I agree they will probably consume less but their productive output will go to zero yet they will still have 60% if their income.

@K.R.98 经济衰退不会自动引发通货紧缩。虽然这种情况经常发生,但并不是必然的。我可能错了,但政府借钱支付人们不工作的费用(失业保险)对我来说似乎非常通胀...这些人不会生产,但会继续消费。我同意他们可能会减少消费,但他们的生产输出将归零,但他们仍将拥有60%的收入。

@aliasjones6381
@K.R.98 That's pretty much exactly what they're doing right now as we speak, and have been doing for the last 20+ years, except instead of handing it to everyone, they're handing it to their buddies and their harems. From there it filters out to 'everybody'.

@K.R.98 这几乎正是他们现在正在做的事情,并且在过去20多年里一直在做,只是他们不是把钱发给所有人,而是发给他们的朋友和他们的后宫。从那里它会过滤到“每个人”。

@amandagorter1684
Lining some other pockets?

填补其他人的口袋?

@eprofessio
So it’s like taking a payday loan to pay off a signature loan.

所以这就像用发薪日贷款来偿还签名贷款。

@Soaptoaster
Rob Peter to pay Paul. Kick that can boys and buy precious metals.

拆东墙补西墙。踢那个罐子,伙计们,买贵金属。

@texdevildog9174
Keeping long term T-bond rates low, is a trick to help the consumer loans on autos and houses.

保持长期国债利率低,是帮助汽车和房屋消费者贷款的一个技巧。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@Username18981
Prediction: bailing out banks with low interest bonds

预测:用低利率债券救助银行

@deseosuho
There's one extra step this business cycle. Offload bad real estate loans as securitized products to pension funds. That process has been well underway since 2023. Then, when price discovery finally happens, grandma's pension is insolvent, and the taxpayer isn't bailing out the banks... they're bailing out grandma.

这个商业周期还有一个额外的步骤。将不良房地产贷款作为证券化产品转移给养老金基金。这个过程自2023年以来已经在顺利进行。然后,当价格发现最终发生时,奶奶的养老金就破产了,纳税人不是在救助银行...他们在救助奶奶。

@jonathanrabbitt
Yep. If SVB had access to this buyback, they might have been able to survive their deposit run.

是的。如果硅谷银行能使用这种回购,他们可能就能在存款挤兑中生存下来。
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@camronrubin8599
Protect the bank users not the banks. Bigger banks will step in and eat the bankrupt banks.

保护银行用户而不是银行。更大的银行将介入并吞并破产的银行。

@JScottHamilton
Yep. What Joe didn't mention is what does it mean for Treasury bonds to be "illiquid"? There isn't a large market for these off-the-run treasuries to begin with, so that means they command a wider bid/ask spread under normal conditions. And because their coupon rate is lower, they trade in the secondary market at a discount to face value. So as a collateral asset, they stink, which is why banks would love to get rid of them if it weren't for the bad haircut. If all of a sudden the holders of these Treasuries want to get out at the same time (say, a run on the banking system), the bid/ask spread could get even wider, to the point where certain runs go no-bid. Oops! This is bad if the bonds you hold have to be marked to market.
So the government is going to take a higher carrying cost of its total debt through higher short term rate carry (like the credit card analogy) in order to keep the market orderly on its long term debt. That's my theory, and I'm sticking with it.

是的。乔没有提到的是,国债“流动性差”是什么意思?首先,这些非流动性国债没有大市场,所以在正常情况下,它们的买卖价差会更大。而且因为它们的票息率较低,它们在二级市场上的交易价格会低于面值。所以作为抵押资产,它们很糟糕,这就是为什么如果不是因为糟糕的折价,银行会很乐意摆脱它们。如果这些国债的持有者突然想同时退出(比如银行系统挤兑),买卖价差可能会变得更大,直到某些债券无人出价。哎呀!如果你持有的债券必须按市价计算,这就糟了。
所以政府将通过更高的短期利率承载(类似信用卡的比喻)来承担更高的总债务成本,以保持长期债务市场的秩序。这是我的理论,我坚持这一点。

@Rays_Bad_Decisions
Why bail out banks when they want to centralize power and control?? They will just have the "healthy" banks absorb the "unhealthy" banks like 2008

既然他们想集中权力和控制,为什么还要救助银行??他们只会让“健康”的银行吸收“有问题”的银行,就像2008年一样。

@cheaplaughkennedy2318
So is it possible the whole system is actually insolvent

那么整个系统是否可能实际上已经破产

@harmhoeks5996
Just duation of dollar

只是美元贬值

@ryanking4942
I hate this fuck'n monetary system.

我讨厌这个该死的货币系统。

@ryanking4942
@dissident112 whoa, bro. I was just saying I wish we didn't go off the gold standard, but go off

哇,兄弟。我只是说我希望我们没有脱离金本位,但继续说
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@gillesduif
Damn felt that one @dissident112

该死的,感受到了

@sumralltt
Then you're going to love the new US Digital Dollar - lol

那么你会喜欢新的美国数字美元——哈哈

@ryanking4942
@sumralltt lMao

哈哈

@dessmith7658
It's fraud

这是欺诈

@user-gl1nf2zd9v
It makes a big difference whether the government is buying its old debt or redeeming it. If they are buying up lower interest rate bonds, it’s doing so at a discount. This would have the effect of reducing the face amount of the total debt. But increasing the cost to the treasury over the new term. Because interest rates have been rising, the market value of that outstanding debt is less than the face amount.

政府是在购买其旧债务还是赎回它,这有很大区别。如果他们购买低利率债券,是在打折购买。这将有助于减少总债务的面值。但会增加新期限内的财政成本。因为利率一直在上升,这些未偿债务的市场价值低于面值。

@marty.l
Yield curve control

收益率曲线控制

@silverliner4894
Sounds like kiting checks back in the day. Depositing a check from one bank account that had NSF into another bank account and taking the money out and writing a check to the original bank with from another bank account that had NSF.

听起来像过去的空头支票。把一张没有足够资金的银行账户的支票存入另一个银行账户,然后取出钱,再用另一张没有足够资金的银行账户开一张支票给原来的银行。

@GFBR1
Take 30 year bonds sold some years ago when rates were < 1%. Those have suffered massive duation when rates moved >5%. Now they issue T-Bills at 5% and buy back the long bonds at a huge discount, at the loss of the seller. Some time in the future, they send rates back to 1% and the T-Bill people no longer will have the party going. And what about inflation? Well, who cares about it? As long as debt is being monetized, all is fine for the government. If technology boosts productivity, CPI can remain under control and all is fine. USA can lose its reserve currency status, but will escape its debt at the cost of the fools who bought it. That's why other countries are doing all they can to avoid the US dollar.

拿几年前以<1%的利率卖出的30年期债券。这些债券在利率升至>5%时遭受了大幅贬值。现在他们以5%的利率发行国库券并以巨大的折扣回购长期债券,损失由卖方承担。未来某个时候,他们将利率降回1%,而国库券的人将不再有派对。而通货膨胀呢?好吧,谁在乎呢?只要债务被货币化,政府一切都好。如果技术提高了生产力,CPI可以保持在控制之下,一切都好。美国可能会失去其储备货币地位,但会以购买它的傻瓜的代价逃脱其债务。这就是为什么其他国家竭尽全力避开美元。

@kerrypolly1252
Great job in explaining the US problem.

很好地解释了美国的问题。

@-33312
The fed is not selling, they're just not buying. Not fashionable to call fed operations as yield curve control, but they are.

美联储没有卖出,他们只是没有买入。不流行称美联储的操作为收益率曲线控制,但他们确实在这么做。

@LightYagami_99
The buyback is not stealth qe but it can be inflationary if it’s like an operation twist where you are issuing new debt. It gives the banking system more on the run collateral which is the most liquid underpinning foundation of credit creation

回购不是隐形量化宽松,但如果像扭曲操作那样发行新债务,它可能会引发通胀。它为银行系统提供了更多的流动抵押品,这是信贷创造的最流动的基础

@techxyz5176
Kicking the can down the road

拖延问题

@challengerband
Could this be in anticipation of a yield curve steepener, like short term rates coming down and normalizing?

这是否是在预期收益率曲线变陡,比如短期利率下降和正常化?

@vishalsaroha1489
In fact the actions suggest that the Fed is trying to nudge US and other international investors for higher yield. This may be in response to the older dated and lower coupon T-Bills being dumped by China and threatening Dollar. Net effect of offering higher interest rates is sucking out liquidity I feel in medium term

事实上,这些行动表明,美联储正试图推动美国和其他国际投资者寻求更高收益。这可能是为了应对中国抛售较旧和较低票息的国库券并威胁美元。提供更高利率的净效应是我感觉在中期吸走流动性

@peterquin1443
Joe, how on earth did you miss the true reason for this buyback operation? It is obviously a bank bailout to replace all their underwater treasuries. If liquidity were really the issue, Yellen could simply be selling exclusively T-bills at all the auctions for new and maturing debt. After all, new and refunding auctions are at an all-time high.

乔,你怎么会错过这个回购操作的真正原因呢?这显然是为了替换他们所有潜在的国债而进行的银行救助。如果流动性真的是问题所在,耶伦完全可以在所有新债和到期债务拍卖会上只出售国库券。毕竟,新债和再融资拍卖处于历史最高水平。

@TheLethargicAge
I guess this is why the yield on the 10-year bond dropped 10 bps today.

我猜这就是今天10年期债券收益率下降10个基点的原因。

@klowery1038kl
US Treasury (ie taxpayers) are helping out the Fed (ie international banksters) by keeping LT rates lower than they otherwise would be.

美国财政部(即纳税人)通过保持长期利率低于正常水平来帮助美联储(即国际银行家)。

@johnpollard744
The chart at 2:32 does not use dual entry balance sheet accounting. Look at a graph of federal debt and you will see that it was still growing in 1998-2001 and has not had a single year of decline in more than a half century.

2:32的图表没有使用双重记账法。看看联邦债务的图表,你会看到它在1998-2001年期间仍在增长,并且在半个多世纪以来没有一年是下降的。

@Inventive15
YCC for you and me!

收益率曲线控制与你我相关!

@gb-dt3vk
well explained, maybe the treasury is anticipating an economic contraction in 2 years which would prompt the Fed to lower its rate. This would lower 2 year refunding costs.

解释得很好,也许财政部预计两年内会出现经济收缩,这将促使美联储降低利率。这将降低两年的再融资成本。

@heriksuper6168
Just so I understand it correctly, they are buying back for the current very low price. Basically making a short term profit.... And generating cash for banks.

为了正确理解,他们正在以目前非常低的价格回购。基本上是在赚取短期利润……并为银行创造现金。

@nickhu1852
The low interest long-term debt is at a huge discount right now. I would also buy back the debt if I can find money to do so, since I raised $100 when selling the debt 3 years ago, and now it only costs me $50 to buy it back.

目前低利率的长期债务有很大的折扣。如果我能找到钱,我也会回购债务,因为三年前我卖债时筹集了100美元,现在只需要50美元就能买回。

@Reason4Termination
That is risky lol. It is basically playing with leverage.

这很有风险,哈哈。这基本上是在玩杠杆。

@phillee8666
No matter what FED does, buy back, QE, selling bonds, .... All are paper assets. The financial assets have no usage for people's daily life. No matter how much money you have, those money (in forms of data, paper, ...) have to be used to purchase things. If no one likes USD, they don't sell anything to you to take USD, the USD will be worthless.

无论美联储做什么,回购,量化宽松,卖债券,……这些都是纸质资产。金融资产对人们的日常生活没有用处。无论你有多少钱,这些钱(以数据、纸张等形式)都必须用来购买东西。如果没人喜欢美元,他们不卖给你东西来换取美元,美元就会变得一文不值。

@dakinikiss
What could go wrong?

能出什么问题?

@MrPerfect229
Nothing lol

没什么,哈哈
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@RichardBrett899
In simple terms and cut to the chase. It is called debt consolidation but at a higher interest rate.

简单来说,直截了当。这叫做债务合并,但利率更高。

@Agooo13431
Thank you. Can you take a look at the foreign holders of Treasury changes and tell us what you think? I understand why China is dumping. Why are the UK, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands buying? How is Yellen convincing them to buy?

谢谢。你能看看外国持有的国债变化,并告诉我们你的看法吗?我想理解中国为什么在抛售。为什么英国、卢森堡、开曼群岛在购买?耶伦是如何说服他们购买的?

@Rustea314
The FED is retiring some of the debt from the banks (i.e., stockholders of the FED) before the next rate hike that will affect the banks' long-term holdings (bond prices) after the next rate hike. I speculate that the FED is going to raise rates and try not to have any banks go bankrupt. Government workers do add value to the economy: roads, courts, and regulations that protect citizens from the morally corrupt.

美联储正在从银行(即美联储的股东)中偿还一些债务,以应对下次加息后将影响银行长期持有的债券价格。我猜测美联储将加息,并尽量避免任何银行破产。政府工作人员确实为经济增加了价值:道路、法院和保护公民免受道德腐败的法规。

@Gold_Silver.
#Gold & #Silver to the baby we out

黄金和白银,宝贝,我们出局了
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@Yk-if3ev
His explanations were correct. However, is liquidity really the problem?

他的解释是正确的。然而,流动性真的是问题吗?

@joejones4296
The government is paying off low interest, fixed debt with higher interest variable debt. And then handing us the bill.

政府正在用高利率的浮动债务偿还低利率的固定债务。然后把账单交给我们。

@rolandbraun1197
Can you quantify the benefits of this Treasury policy? Is it adding some liquidity in the economy for both consumers and producers? Is it a TAILWIND for the stock market?

你能量化一下这项财政政策的好处吗?它是否为消费者和生产者增加了一些经济流动性?这对股市是顺风吗?

@youflatscreentube
Getting the banks out of heavy long-term assets to get them set up for an asset grab, of (real) assets in the near future (3-12 months). I’m thinking something like that.

把银行从沉重的长期资产中解脱出来,为未来(3-12个月)的资产收购(实际资产)做好准备。我想是这样的。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@mikeseigle5560
Perhaps it is to boost banks exposed to bonds with low interest rates. It shifts the risk from banks and institutional investors to the Fed,

也许这是为了提振暴露于低利率债券的银行。它将风险从银行和机构投资者转移到了美联储。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@tommmmiii
They probably know that interest rates in the coming period will be higher. So better borrow now than a year or two from now when interest rates are even higher.

他们可能知道未来一段时间的利率会更高。所以现在借款比一两年后利率更高时借款要好。

@johnmancino8552
HMM so what happens to those short-term T-bill rates that replaced the longer-term bonds if/when the Fed starts lowering the fed funds rate?

嗯,如果美联储开始降低联邦基金利率,那些替代长期债券的短期国库券利率会怎样?
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@Jdogg48
Cheers!! to kicking the can a little further

干杯!!再往前拖一拖

@TheLethargicAge
This is like a bank bailout and “quiet” QE rolled into one. Isn’t this a form of yield curve control as well?

这就像是银行救助和“隐形”量化宽松的结合。这不也是一种收益率曲线控制吗?

@clintcowan9424
Blow off top chart is an excellent head and shoulders pattern

顶部爆发图是一个优秀的头肩形态

@anandchudavala
This Treasury buyback program is a bailout for the banks that bought long-term bonds. The knock-on effects will cause everything to grow into a larger bubble.

这项国债回购计划是对购买长期债券的银行的救助。连锁反应将导致一切发展成更大的泡沫。

@changhehuang558
I believe they are buying back short, and borrowing more long loans... so eventually they have rolling long loans it could potentially push everything years out... or just more balanced maturing date?

我相信他们正在回购短期贷款,并借入更多长期贷款……所以最终他们拥有滚动的长期贷款,这可能会将所有事情推迟多年……还是只是更平衡的到期日?

@jasonwimmer71
Is it really true that it is a $ for $ trade? Isn't the long-term debt discounted right now because of the yield curve? So if they waited to pay for the debt in 10 years it would be at par, but right now isn't the purchase of those bills at less than par?

这真的是真实的等价交易吗?由于收益率曲线,长期债务现在不是在折扣吗?所以如果他们等到10年后偿还债务,它将是平价的,但现在购买这些债券不是低于平价吗?

@donporter1247
Another factor is that the debt ceiling is currently suspended until January 2025. Big incentive to increase borrowing now to fill accounts to be drawn down during the fight over the next debt ceiling.

另一个因素是债务上限目前暂停到2025年1月。现在有很大的动机增加借款,以便在下次债务上限争斗期间填补账户。

@macribb82
They are almost out of tricks. This is nuts.

他们几乎没有花招了。这太疯狂了。

@ronjones1414
It seems to me like kicking off this buyback as the reverse repo fund tanks is not a coincidence. It's almost like they're trying to head something off that we haven't heard about.

在我看来,当逆回购基金耗尽时启动这次回购并非巧合。这几乎就像他们试图阻止一些我们还未听说的事情。

@SandwichKing-lj4ej
When the central bank has to buy the debt, there is not enough liquidity for rates to be where they want in lowness. Their buying the debt artificially lowers the rates.

当中央银行必须购买债务时,流动性不足以使利率达到他们希望的低位。他们购买债务人为地降低了利率。

@vishalsaroha1489
Expect US Govt bonds 5, 10-year yields going lower in the short term, and right action in the current situation. It is a genuine crisis onset and efforts appear afoot in the background to douse fires of a small scale.

预计美国政府债券5年期和10年期收益率将在短期内下降,并且在当前情况下采取正确的行动。这是真正的危机开始,背景中似乎正在努力扑灭小规模的火灾。

@kiranas
Yields are very high meaning debt investors got meagre returns for the past 6 to 10 years and still they are waiting. Now buying back and the nexus of mutual funds with the government would loot them even more by giving less returns and making them in losses for the past 10 years.

收益率非常高,这意味着过去6到10年的债务投资者获得的回报微不足道,他们仍在等待。现在回购以及共同基金与政府的关系将通过减少回报使他们在过去10年中蒙受更多损失。

@MybullionClub
$30 is a hotspot for buyers. Now, let's see how the ESB might stir things up in that territory.

30美元是买家的热点。现在,让我们看看欧洲央行如何在该领域搅动局势。

@joeharry32817
How do they expect inflation to come down when they're doing QE?

当他们在进行量化宽松时,他们如何期望通货膨胀下降?

@NoOneToNoOne89
@3:10 are you saying the government is taking out payday loans?

你是说政府在借发薪日贷款吗?

@danielhutchinson6604
Treasury faces a $1 trillion Interest Payment Bill, on top of providing enough money to make the USA appear tough and ruthless. When I was taking Economics Classes in 1970, Treasury Guys came around promising to sell as much, as the Federal reserve prints up. How are they doing so far?

财政部面临1万亿美元的利息支付账单,此外还需要提供足够的资金以使美国显得强硬和无情。1970年我上经济学课时,财政部的人承诺销售尽可能多的印钞票。他们到目前为止做得怎么样?

@mrEnergy511
When you buy high and sell low on a spread trade it is BEARISH! The government…

当你在价差交易中高买低卖时,这是看跌的!政府……
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@YesCivic-R
When interest rates lower, the high yield 5.5 short notes sold will cost more for Treasury. Right?

当利率降低时,卖出的5.5%高收益短期票据会让财政部付出更多,对吗?

@jameslucas5590
So they are doing a balance transfer from one cc to another cc.

所以他们正在从一个信用卡转移到另一个信用卡。

@SinergiasHolisticas
Game over...

游戏结束...

@kunghsu1
There is a question that when they buy back, are they paying market value or face value? Market value should be much lower. If they pay market value then they are realizing the loss, which is bad for the bank, if they pay face value, then they are doing QE to bail out the bank, which its legality should be scrutinized by Congress.

有一个问题是,当他们回购时,他们是支付市场价值还是面值?市场价值应该低得多。如果他们支付市场价值,那么他们就是在实现损失,这对银行不利;如果他们支付面值,那么他们就是在进行量化宽松来救助银行,其合法性应由国会审查。

@joannesyy
Only those less liquid bonds will be bought back, such as TIPs and 20-year bonds.

只有那些流动性较差的债券会被回购,比如通胀保值债券和20年期债券。

@supadam47
So let’s say they drop interest rates in the next 6 months, does that work in their favor?

那么假设他们在接下来的6个月里降低利率,这对他们有利吗?

@KarlRove-vk7gg
2024 is the new 1929.

2024是新的1929年。

@johnpierson4696
Does this signal that the Fed is going to cut interest rates?

这是否意味着美联储将降息?

@mattbopp6006
Our policy makers can't get out of their own way. Constant manipulation hinges more and more on the financial integrity of the government instead of normal market forces. But the government's finances are in shambles. How much longer can they play the market?

我们的政策制定者无法摆脱自己的方式。不断的操纵越来越依赖政府的金融诚信,而不是正常的市场力量。但政府的财政状况一团糟。他们还能在市场上玩多久?

@user-vp6vf8wm2s
It’s like a Casino, you are the house, and you are a gambler.

这就像赌场,你是庄家,你也是赌徒。

@dmitrybernadiner6304
Maybe they know they will reduce the interest rates soon.

也许他们知道他们很快会降低利率。

@ThePeterDislikeShow
But are they paying face value or market value?

但他们是支付面值还是市场价值?

@platec4798
Take a cash advance on MasterCard to pay off Visa. Then apply for AmEx card and take a cash advance on AmEx to pay MasterCard then apply for a Discover card to… The whole US Treasury system is the same as taking advances in credit cards.

用万事达卡预支现金来偿还Visa卡。然后申请美国运通卡并用运通卡预支现金来偿还万事达卡,然后申请发现卡……整个美国财政系统就像在信用卡中预支现金一样。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@ekcoylejr
Buying lower interest debt is purchased at a discount. Correct me if I'm wrong.

购买低利率债务是以折扣价购买的。如果我错了,请纠正我。

@magnanova
The market must be expecting a rise in interest rates longer term.

市场一定是预期长期利率会上升。

@ATothFTW18
Das straight wild

这真是疯狂

@yky621
It’s always like this bro. Issuing new bonds or treasuries to pay off the old and due ones. Therefore it’s a wheel that keeps rolling until an accident happens. Oh, don’t worry, a reset and new system will be created by financial genius. Lol.

兄弟,这总是这样。发行新债券或国债来偿还旧债务。因此,这是一个不断滚动的轮子,直到发生意外。哦,别担心,金融天才会创造一个重置和新的系统。哈哈。

@benfox383
Ok so the gov is renewing old debt that was at lower interest rates with longer maturity with much shorter higher rates….seems like either they know that eventually they’ll be able to renew all renewed debt even longer and lower in the not too distant future to me when the fed is forced to lower rates. By forced I mean back to 0 or even negative so it’s about to get real bad real soon

好吧,所以政府正在用更高利率的短期债务来更新旧的低利率长期债务……似乎他们知道最终他们将能够在不远的将来更新所有更新的债务,甚至在美联储被迫降低利率时进一步延长和降低。所谓被迫,我的意思是回到0甚至负数,所以情况很快就会变得非常糟糕。

@medusaskull9625
We do have a surplus of dollars. They can print more if you don’t believe it.

我们确实有美元盈余。如果你不相信,他们可以印更多。

@kurtislawrence233
But are they at least making a profit on the sold-off Treasuries? The Treasuries they are buying are like, 20% to 40% discounted?

但他们至少在卖出的国债上赚钱吗?他们购买的国债有20%到40%的折扣吗?

@maweeindunna4791
Borrowing to pay debt, that only makes the debt worse. I see it as an attempt to lower interest rates on their loans. Or maybe they're being threatened with another downgrade.

借钱还债,只会让债务变得更糟。我认为这是试图降低贷款利率。或者他们可能受到另一次降级的威胁。

@noesisML
A series of experiments never ends,.. making life so weary

一系列实验永无止境……让生活如此疲惫

@kennethjensen5787
FED just gave us their gameplay - FED will lower rates before the US needs to buy back their loans.

美联储刚刚给了我们他们的游戏玩法——美联储将在美国需要回购贷款之前降低利率。

@lc1668
Why USA not just print out money and distribute the paper money to various organizations and people, like they did during the COVID?

为什么美国不直接印钞并将纸币分发给各个组织和个人,就像在COVID期间那样?

@BI-11y_TheStormTrooper
They are probably going to cut rates....

他们可能会降息……

@phillipyap7697
Printing more money to buy back old debt, that's real smart. Is that what they teach in American universities?

印更多的钱来回购旧债,真聪明。这是美国大学教的吗?

@autopeep24
Banks do these treasury swaps and if interest rates drop, this becomes a win for the banks - a bank bail-in! Got it.

银行进行这些国债互换,如果利率下降,这对银行来说是个胜利——银行内部救助!明白了。

@aguilavoraz3352
Is the government buying old debt at market price or nominal?

政府是在以市场价格还是面值购买旧债务?

@gregbrauch
Payday loans!!

发薪日贷款!!

@sergiopawson
I'm 55 and earn about $450k annually, only save 30% in HYSA's. I've been reading a lot of articles mentioning how worthless 'cash savings' are in this current unstable economy, thus my question - real estate, stocks or gold, which will be a better investment as of now?

我今年55岁,年收入约45万美元,只在高收益储蓄账户中存了30%。我读了很多文章提到在当前不稳定的经济中“现金储蓄”是多么没有价值,因此我的问题是——房地产、股票还是黄金,现在哪个是更好的投资?

@arlenehill4ril
Agreed, opting for financial advice is the best way to go about the market right now. I average 4 figures/month in dividends. I'm in the process of dumping some stocks that I feel are not solid performers, but my overall ROI just hit $850K. I only have 30 or so stocks (20%) of my portfolio with more of my investments in digital assets clearly vetted by my financial advisor.

同意,选择财务建议是目前进入市场的最佳方式。我平均每月有四位数的股息。我正在抛售一些我认为表现不佳的股票,但我的总体投资回报率刚刚达到85万美元。我只有约30只股票(占我投资组合的20%),更多的投资是在我的财务顾问明确审查过的数字资产中。

@marksgoogle4360
Ponzi scheme?

庞氏骗局?

@frankjoseph4273
Our property rights are the foundation of individual wealth.

我们的产权是个人财富的基础。

@yeaplye9080
Be smart, keep stacking up gold and silver.

聪明点,继续囤积黄金和白银。

@patricklapointe674
Si le taux d'intérêt du dollars américain augmente cette été, cela feras baissée l'or et l'argent, si la fed baisse le taux alors il sera le temps d'acheter de l'or!

如果今年夏天美元利率上升,金银价格将下跌,如果美联储降息,那么就该买黄金了!

@tylerpeterson4726
So it's a bet that long-term interest rates will go down. They're buying assets in the 10-year market today, while prices are depressed due to high rates, with the expectation that rates will fall and they'll be able to move the short-term debt they're accumulating today into long-term notes at the future low rates. And people will want to buy those future long-term notes because of the liquidity being injected into that segment right now.

所以这是一种长期利率会下降的赌注。他们今天在10年期市场购买资产,而由于高利率,价格受到抑制,他们预计利率会下降,他们将能够将今天积累的短期债务转移到未来的低利率长期票据中。而人们会想要购买这些未来的长期票据,因为目前这一部分市场正在注入流动性。

@dexterbrown9681
Missing the simple fact that those bonds are sold for less than their worth on the market these days. So yeah they could be making money off those even when borrowing with higher interest rates.

忽略了这些债券现在在市场上的售价低于其价值这一简单事实。所以是的,即使在借款利率较高的情况下,他们也可能从中赚钱。

@freddyyudianto2027
"Buy back at the same time sell" is restructuring.

“同时回购和出售”是重组。

@mrgerbeck
It's a bail-out.

这是救助。

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