中国电动车雄起西方分道扬镳
2024-07-08 小刘2025 7154
正文翻译

US. and European tariffs on car imports from China look similar, but will have different consequences.

欧美对从中国进口的电动车征收关税对策貌似雷同,其实影响很不一样。

America and Europe are heading down different roads in response to China’s emergence as an electric-vehicle juggernaut.

面对中国在电动车的崭露头角,欧美走上不同道路。

The U.S. is closing its borders to Chinese EVs before they even launch. The Biden administration last month raised the total tariff rate to 102.5% on Chinese EVs, despite extremely low imports. Canada, whose car industry is tightly integrated with the U.S., is considering new tariffs too, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

美国闭关锁国,赶在中国电动车出海之前。尽管拜登政府进口的数量低,上月还将中国电动车总体关税提高到102.5%,汽车产业与美国紧密勾结的加拿大亦设计加税,彭博上周五如是报道。

In case sky-high import duties don’t keep Chinese EVs away—for example if they are built in Mexico to benefit from the country’s free-trade agreement with the U.S. and Canada—Washington also launched an investigation in February to assess their security risks. This could be an even more potent blocking tool. If President Biden loses November’s election, a second Trump administration would likely be even more hawkish.

以防高额进口关税阻挡不住中国电动车进口——比如在墨西哥组装,从而受益于墨美加自由贸易协定——华盛顿还在2月份还启动名为评估中国电动汽车安全风险的调查,或许能成为更加有力的闭关手段。如果在任美国总统乔拜登11月大选中落败,特朗普第二个任期采取的对措可能更加强硬。

Meanwhile in the European unx, additional tariffs announced by Brussels this month will only slow the influx of Chinese EVs. The products need to overcome consumer resistance to unfamiliar brands, which will take time, but the market is open.

欧盟方面,布鲁塞尔本月公布的额外关税只能减缓中国电动车的涌入,这些牌子的产品尚需时日与消费者的喜旧抵新情绪磨合,但市场的门呈敞开状态。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The proposed levels of duty are relatively modest: an additional 17.4% in the all-important case of Chinese market leader BYD. On top of a longstanding 10% tariff, that might close most of the company’s cost advantage compared with European peers, but it probably wouldn’t throw its growth plans off course. Assuming that the company splits the cost impact of the proposed tariff with consumers, Citi estimated that it would still make higher margins in Europe than in brutally competitive China.

欧盟计谋的关税比例相对美国二十步比百步:对分量颇重的中国市场龙头车厂比亚迪征收17.4的额外关税,加上原本长期征收的10%关税,或许会尽数削掉比亚迪较欧洲同行而言的成本优势,但不可能使其增长计划偏离轨道。花旗集团估计,比亚迪在欧洲的利润率仍将高于竞争激烈的中国本土。

And the final tariffs could be lower still. The EV probe is part of a negotiation: China responded last week with its own antidumping investigation into imports of EU pork products. Both initiatives invoke World Trade Organization rules that allow so-called “countervailing duties” on subsidized products. The “Section 301” tariffs used by Washington, by contrast, are a uniquely American tool that is unlikely to lead to any kind of bilateral deal.

最终关税有可能会降低,欧盟调查中国电动车是双方谈判的一个组成部分:中国上星期对从欧盟进口的猪肉产品展开反倾销调查作为回应,两项调查都引用了世界贸易组织的规则 ,即允许对补贴产品征收所谓的反补贴税。华盛顿方面使用的301条款关税则是美国独裁工具,不太可能促成任何形式的双边协议。

The key effect of EU tariffs would be to speed up an existing trend toward localizing production, as happened when the Reagan administration placed import quotas on Japanese cars in the 1980s. Andrew Bergbaum, a partner at consulting firm AlixPartners, already counts eight planned Chinese EV factories in Europe. As long as they also use a high enough proportion of local parts, they will be able to sell into the region duty-free.

欧盟关税起的主要作用是加速生产本地化趋势,就像里根政府在20世纪80年代对日本汽车实施进口配额时那样。咨询公司人士指出,欧洲手上已握八家中国电动车工厂的建设计划书,只要这几个厂本地零部件使用率足够高,就能在当地免税销售。

There are no more car buyers for these new factories, so the tariffs being introduced to protect European industry against excess Chinese capacity will simply create excess European capacity. This is good news for consumers, who will get deals and wheels, but bad for old-school car manufacturers in what was already a tough market.

欧盟市场购车者数量没有增多,因此为保护工业免受中国产能旺盛影响而征收关税只会造成欧洲产能过剩,对消费者而言却是个易得实惠的好消息,但对本就好艰难就市的老牌汽车厂商来说却是个坏消息。

The incumbent industry could help itself by sharing plants with the newcomers. Stellantis, which owns brands such as Fiat and Peugeot as well as the Chrysler business in Detroit, last month formed a European joint venture with a Chinese automaker, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology. The business is starting to use a Stellantis factory in Poland to manufacture Leapmotor vehicles for the European market, according to a recent Jefferies note. In some ways, the approach is a mirror image of the Chinese JVs through which most Western automakers still access the Chinese market.

他们通过与新势力车厂共享工厂自救,旗下有菲亚特和标致等品牌、在底特律有克莱斯勒业务的斯特兰蒂斯上个月与浙江零跑科技合资建厂。报告显示 ,零跑利用其在波兰的一家工厂为欧洲市场造车,某些方面来看,这种做法翻版了大多数西方车厂进入中国市场采用的模式。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The U.S. is borrowing different tactics from China. Tariff increases need to be seen alongside the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, which kicked off a new era of Chinese-style industrial policy backed by massive state spending. If the elaborate combination of carrots and sticks works, it will create a whole new EV supply chain to run alongside the Chinese one that dominates today’s industry.

美国却从中国拿来真经。提高关税与拜登政府开启大规模国家支出新时代的产业政策《通胀削减法案》共举,若精心组合的胡萝卜加大棒奏效,它将创造出一个全新的电动车供应链,与如今主导产业的中国供应链并驾齐驱。

But this, too, is a recipe for overcapacity, particularly as it will be tough to keep the supply chains totally separate. Regardless of its growth potential, the EV industry is doomed to low returns by its political sensitivity.

但亦会导致美国产能过剩,供应链相当难保持完全独立。无论其增产潜力如何,电动汽车业的政治敏感性注定回报率低迷。

评论翻译
D I Shaw
The larger question is who will be motivated to buy the vehicles at any price except at the point of the government's gun, e.g. the coming bans on internal combustion engines in California, New York, Maryland, etc. EV's may play a somewhat expanded version of the roles that golf carts play in some communities in Florida, but the laws of physics make widespread adoption nearly impossible in the wider, open spaces of most of the United States and Canada.

更大的问题是,除了在政府强制的情况下(例如加利福尼亚、纽约、马里兰等地对内燃机的禁令),谁还会有动力买这种车,无论价格如何。电动车可能会在某种程度上扮演佛罗里达一些社区中高尔夫球车的角色,但物理定律几乎使其在美国和加拿大大部分辽阔开放空间的广泛采用变得几乎不可能。

Alan Wells
Americans are simply innumerate. I blame Public Schools, the US graduates more lawyers than engineers. Math is hard.

美国人简直不懂数学。我归咎于公立学校,美国毕业的律师比工程师多,数学太难了。

Tom Taggart
With a low enough price, Chinese (or "Mexichina" imports) can find a niche market as second cars for suburbia. If used for grocery runs, or as mom's taxi service for the kids, or a school and work car for a teenager, the range limitations are not a problem.

价格足够低廉的话,中国的(或“墨中”)进口产品能够在郊区找到细分市场,比如家里的第二辆车。如果用于购买食品杂货、妈妈接送孩子的租车服务、青少年上学和上班的交通工具,续航里程的限制就不是问题。

chris rottmann
So our EV policy is not really about saving the planet from climate change . It's about political power and picking winners and losers . What a surprise .

所以我们的电动车政策并非真心为了从气候变暖中拯救地球。而是政治权力以及挑选赢家和输家的工具。真让人意外。

John A Miller
No, it's not about saving the planet, Mr Rottman, because first and foremost the push for EVs, Energy Transition, and Net Zero is based on the computer generated fantasy of CO2 Climate Doom.

不,罗特曼先生,不是为了什么拯救地球,因为一开始,推动电动车、能源转型和净零排放都是基于计算机生成的二氧化碳气候末日幻想。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Raymond Lee
China is just doing what they said they would do 20 years ago. Lead in solar, renewables, and EV's......we seem to be shocked that they did what they said they were going to do.The West on other hand, talks a good game, but did nothing except make more SUV's and trucks.Shame on us for letting them catch up......

中国只是在按照20年前的规划在做事。引领太阳能、可再生能源、和电动车的发展...我们似乎对他们言出必行感到震惊。西方光夸夸其谈,但除了多生产些SUV和卡车什么都没干成,我们让他们赶超了,真丢人...

Leon Drozd
On the other hand, while America was fussing and fuming about this and that, China kept its eye on the ball and bigger picture. As many say, China plays a longer term game. Americans are short term.

相反当美国还在为这为那烦恼和愤怒时,中国专注大局和长远规划,正如大多数说的那样,中国在下一盘大棋,美国人目光短浅。

Rob Dougan
China has spent 230 billion subsidizing its EV industry...

中国已经花掉2300亿美元补贴电动车产业...

Jason Schripsema
Awwww.... Poor West. You shipped all your manufacturing jobs to China, gave them access to all your tech in exchange for cheap labor, and now China actually got smart about something. And you're mad about it.Next time invest in your own people and don't be so short sighted. Those stock portfolios aren't going to save you if China invents some crazy new weapons technology that you don't have...

哎...可怜的西方。你们为了廉价劳动力,把制造业工作全部转移到中国,让他们获得所有技术,现在中国真在某些方面机灵了,而你们还为此发狂。下回投资自己人,别这么目光短浅,要是中国发明出你们没有的超牛新武器技术,那些股票投资组合可救不了你们...

Dom Fried
The complete failure of the multi-decade engagement strategy that Nixon is famous for pioneering is now, I believe, widely accepted, as you so eloquently alluded. This is evident by the observation that it no longer guides policy. The US does not appear to have any coherent strategy to replace it.

正如您雄辩地暗示的那样,我认为尼克松率先开创实行了几十年的接触战略算是彻底失败,大众普遍认可这点。从美国不再指导政策这一点就可以明显看出,美国似乎没有任何连贯的战略来取代。
注:美国对华接触战略的要义在于通过与中国交往,将中国拉进其主导的国际体系,使中国成为体系内的支持性力量。美国在获取战略利益与经济收益的同时,希望塑造和影响中国的发展方向,使中国政治、经济、社会、外交诸方面向着美国所乐见的方向发展。

William Guenthner
I'm tired of being told by our politicians and our media that China is our enemy. Without Chinese goods our store shelves would be empty. That's not an enemy. That's a critical and irreplaceable economic partner.

我厌倦了被我们的政客和媒体告知中国是我们的敌人。没有中国商品,我们的商店货架将空空如也,中国不是敌人,中国是一个重要且不可替代的经济伙伴。

Harry Hundal
Exactly. From tooth brush to sun glasses, hats & clothes and shoes everything is made in china, and that too at very affordable prices.
If greedy American businesses go and setup their shop in China to save on costs, you should not blame China for that.

确实。从牙刷到太阳镜、帽子、衣服和鞋子,所有的东西是中国制造的,而且价格非常实惠。如果贪婪的美国企业去中国开店以节省成本,你们不该为此责怪中国。

Marrio S
Imagine if we didn’t jump start Ev’s in the early 2010’s. Even after bailing out the auto industry for the umpteenth time, they would be out of business.In the 80’s Ross Perot sold his software co to GM. They wanted a more entrepreneurial spirit so they put him on the board. He told him to stop playing golf, stop taking private planes, and roll up their sleeves and get to work. They promptly paid him $700 million to go away.

想象场景,如果我们21世纪初没有推动电动车产业的发展,即便救助汽车行业无数次,他们还是会破产。80年代罗斯·佩罗把他的软件公司卖给通用汽车,通用希望更具创业精神的企业文化,所以把他弄进董事会。罗氏告诫他们禁打高尔夫、别坐私人飞机、卷起袖子好好干活。他们迅速付给他7亿美人让他走人。

Alan Wells
I worked for the US postal service for awhile after leaving Fedex. I recall saying to my dad (a retired P&G VP) that I prayed that the USPS was the most inefficient organization on the planet after what I had seen. Without hesitation he responded "You've never seen General Motors".

我从联邦快递辞职后在美国邮局工作过一段时间。我还记得跟我父亲(宝洁公司的一位退休副总裁)说的一句话,见识过邮政局做派后,我咒美国邮局是这个星球效率最低的单位。他毫不犹豫地答道:你还没有见识过通用汽车。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Peter del Rio
We are at the tipping point where major Chinese brands make better products than American brands. That certainly is the case for EVs and I just bought a Midea U-shaped air conditioner and have a Midea refrigerator in my basement.How tariffs help I am not sure but once again the Biden administration is motivated by buying votes while the American dream slips away due to poor policies viewed as good politics.

我们正处于一个转折点,中国头部品牌制造出比美国品牌更好的产品,电动车正是如此,我才买过一台美的空调安家,地下室还买了一台美的冰箱。我对关税作用不甚了解,然而但拜登政府再次为了拉选票出台那些貌似很好的糟糕政策,结果美国梦碎了一地。

Daniel G. Eramian
Biden is blocking cheaper EVs for Americans that would help the environment and at the same time his administration says we are on the verge of a climate disaster if we don't switch to EVs. Sounds like he trying to get more US auto unx votes so the environment will just have to wait.

拜登在阻止美国人购买那些便宜的电动以汽车,本可以保护环境,可他的政府却又说:如果我们不转向电动汽车,我们处于面临气候灾难的边缘。听他的口吻是想多捞美国汽车工会的选票,所以环境的事儿只能等等放一边啦。

Robert Cunningham
You'd prefer China to flood the market with heavily subsidized vehicles with stolen American technologies, destroying not just the US manufacturers but the entire supply chain that goes into the vehicles? Sounds very patriotic.

你难道想让中国靠着大量补贴,还有偷来的美国技术生产的汽车来占领市场,不光毁了美国的制造商,还把整个汽车供应链都搞垮?这听起来可真够“爱国”的!

William Brown
Biden wants what Trump wants: US manufacturing to build those EVs.

拜登想要的跟特朗普一样:让美国制造业去生产那些电动车。

Peter del Rio
BMW EVs are made in factories that get 100% of their electricity from renewable energy and their Neue Klasse EVs will be almost recyclable. Just because America can't do it does not mean the rest of the world can't.As an owner of two BMW EVs, the BMW iX is the best car I have ever driven.In sum, America is falling behind due to mediocrity because America is no longer a meritocracy.

宝马的电动汽车是在那种100%靠可再生能源发电的工厂里造出来的,他们的 Neue Klasse 电动汽车差不多都能回收。不能因为美国办不到,就觉得其他地方也不行。我有两辆宝马电动汽车,宝马 iX 是我开过的最好的车。总之呢,因为太普通没亮点,美国正在落后,因为美国不再是个能者居上的地方了。

Jeffrey P
The problem with China is the state supported overcapacity and dumping with little concern for losses with the state backing inefficiency, waste and loss.It makes free trade with China impossible because the distortions created by their leftover command economy system are problematic for the global economy. Maybe when China embraces democracy and capitalism things will change, but that’s not happening anytime soon.

中国的问题在于有国家支持的产能过剩和倾销,根本不在乎损失,因为有国家在背后支撑着那些低效率、浪费和亏损。这样子做就让和中国搞自由贸易没可能了,因为他们残留的计划经济体制造成的扭曲对全球经济来说是个麻烦。也许等中国接受民主和资本主义的时候情况会变,但短时间内这是不会发生的。

M Anders
This is a really important article. Small team of us helped create the CAFE and Emissions laws of the US (as near infants) years ago, so we know how they now tie the hands of US and EU electric vehicle makers with thousands of micro-regulations that make these US EV’s among the most complex, hard to maintain - and - inadvertently polluting - vehicles in the world. (Tesla style EV’s and similar are about 5% as recyclable as gas cars from Toyota/Honda etc - over their 20 year lifecycles.80% of materials in gas cars are recycled. Tesla-style cars are not close.) China and India have been making simple “EV’s “ of all kinds - motorbikes, motorcycles, delivery vans, trucks, and now cars for almost 50 years, and these simpler vehicles are easy to recycle. China and India built their now global EV industries - upward - from the lead-acid batteries in industrial forklifts, motorbikes, etc to the sleeker cars of today.

这篇文章非常重要。好些年前,我们一小拨人(那时候还年轻)帮忙弄出了美国的企业平均燃油经济性和排放标准,所以我们清楚现在那成千上万的琐碎规定咋就把美国和欧盟电动汽车制造商的手脚给绑住了,搞得这些美国电动车成了世界上最复杂、最难维护,还不小心就污染得厉害的车。(像特斯拉那种电动车还有类似的,20年下来,能回收的程度也就丰田、本田那种汽油车的5%左右。汽油车 80%的材料都能回收。特斯拉那种车可差得远了。中国和印度一直在造各种各样结构简单的“电动车”,电动摩托车、电动单车、送货车、卡车,现在是汽车,几近50年,这些构造简单的车子回收起来很容易。中国和印度从工业叉车、摩托车用的铅酸电池开始,一步步发展起到现在的全球电动车产业,到如今更时髦的车辆。

M Anders
and most of the global EV’s actually burn COAL and OIL….to make the electricity the EV’s use.That’s also mostly true in the US. Think about that. Milk comes from cows, not a bottle.

而且全球大多数的电动汽车实际上用的电是靠烧煤和烧油发出来的。在美国也基本是这样。好好想想吧。牛奶是从奶牛身上挤出来的,不是从瓶子里。

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


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