中国和美国都盯着突破性的电动车技术,固态电池有可能就是未来
2024-07-09 小刘2025 7464
正文翻译

China is so dominant in the market for the batteries powering electric vehicles and green tech that it would take a technological upheaval to change that. One might be coming, but Beijing isn’t asleep at the wheel.

中国在为电动汽车和绿色技术提供动力的电池市场上占据主导地位,得有一场技术大变革才能改变这情况。这种变革可能即将到来,但中国并未掉以轻心。

With a booming electric-vehicle market at home, Chinese battery makers are the giants of the industry. In the first four months of this year, just two companies from the country—Contemporary Amperex Technology, or CATL, and BYD—already have more than half of the global EV battery market between them, according to SNE Research. More crucially, Chinese manufacturers also dominate the supply chain for battery materials. China accounted for nearly 90% of cathode active material capacity globally and more than 97% for anodes, according to the International Energy Agency.

由于国内电动汽车市场蓬勃发展,中国的电池制造商成为了该行业的巨头。根据 SNE Research 的数据,在今年的前四个月,仅来自中国的两家公司——宁德时代和比亚迪,就已经占据了全球电动汽车电池市场的一半以上份额。更关键的是,中国制造商还主导着电池材料的供应链。据国际能源署称,中国在全球阴极活性材料产能中占近 90%,在阳极方面则超过 97%。

For countries such as the U.S. that wish to break China’s dominance in the automotive and power technology of the future, the only hope would be a scientific breakthrough that could rejig the battery supply chain with different materials and components. New technology wouldn’t replace existing lithium-ion batteries, which have been around for five decades, but could provide alternative options.

对于像美国这种想打破中国在未来汽车和电力技术方面主导地位的国家,唯一的指望就是来个科学突破,靠不同的材料和组件重新调整电池供应链。新技术不会取代已经存在了50年的锂离子电池,但可以提供替代选择。

There are a few potential candidates. Sodium-ion batteries look like the most viable alternative, but CATL and BYD have already massively ramped up their capacity. More than 90% of new supply announced through 2030 will come from China, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. That is despite the fact that the utilization rate of sodium battery plants is still fairly low.

有几个潜在的候选技术。钠离子电池看起来是最可行的替代品,但宁德时代和比亚迪已经大幅提高了其产能。根据基准矿物情报(Benchmark Mineral Intelligence)的数据,到 2030年新增供应的 90%多将来自中国。尽管事实上钠离子电池厂的利用率仍然相当低。

Another option to boost energy density is to replace graphite anodes with silicon, making batteries lighter and able to store more energy. That could potentially challenge China’s dominance in graphite. Japan’s Panasonic 6752 -0.11%decrease; red down pointing triangle said this past year it would purchase silicon anode materials from U.K. startup Nexeon. U.S. startup Group 14, backed by Microsoft MSFT -0.08%decrease; red down pointing triangle and Porsche, also has a joint venture with Korean battery maker SK Group. Benchmark expects silicon anode capacity to more than triple this year.

另一个提高能量密度的选择是用硅取代石墨阳极,使电池更轻并能够储存更多能量。这有可能挑战中国在石墨方面的主导地位。
日本的松下在去年表示将从英国初创公司 Nexeon 购买硅阳极材料。得到微软和保时捷支持的美国初创公司 Group 14 也与韩国电池制造商 SK 集团建立了合资企业。基准公司(Benchmark)预计今年硅阳极产能将增长两倍以上。

And China isn’t sleeping on this opportunity. Beijing will provide 6 billion yuan, equivalent to nearly $830 million, to companies including CATL and BYD to research and develop solid-state batteries, according to domestic media. EV maker NIO NIO -2.27%decrease; red down pointing triangle said it plans to produce cars using semisolid state technology, which might still contain liquid electrolytes.

中国没有放过这个机会。据国内媒体报道,中国政府将向包括宁德时代和比亚迪在内的公司提供 60 亿元人民币,相当于近 8.3 亿美元,用于研究和开发固态电池。电动汽车制造商蔚来(NIO)表示,它打算用半固态技术来生产汽车,这种技术可能还是含有液态电解质。

China’s battery supremacy looks secure for now, but new technology could throw in a wild card for Western companies seeking to catch up.

目前,中国在电池领域的霸主地位看似稳固,不过新技术可能会给那些想追上来的西方公司带来变数。

评论翻译
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Burton Richardson: Let's electrify our whole fleet of vehicles and have communist China supply 95% of the batteries. What could go wrong?

我们把所有的车辆都改成电动的,并让中国供应95%的电池,会出什么问题呢?

David Eyke: The problem is the estimated cost for the necessary electric grid reconfiguration is $5 trillion - all forced through to ratepayers. This $5 trillion will be added to the cost of US production and act like a negative trade tariff on our own exports. International buyers will then price-prefer non-Clean Air Act production over US production to an even greater extent - worsening climate pollution.

问题必要的电网改造估计成本为5万亿美元,最后都是用户买单。就像对我们的出口加了负面关税一样。国际买家将因此更加偏好非《清洁空气法案》生产的产品,而不是美国的产品,这将加剧气候污染。

Brian Cooke: Even simple questions like "Who makes Tesla batteries besides Panasonic" meet with bewildering info like "Tesla has been diversifying its battery supply chain to meet the growing demand for electric vehicles". That's greenie talk for China.

就连像“除了松下,谁给特斯拉造电池”这么简单的问题,得到的都是让人迷糊的消息,比如“特斯拉一直在使其电池供应链多样化,以满足对电动汽车不断增长的需求”。这就是那些为中国说话的环保人士的论调。

Kenneth Tennysfan: The US is much better off by spending hundreds of billions to support migrants and to pay the tuition of Gender Studies majors. Let the Chinese dominate in technology. At least we have diversity!

美国还不如花几千亿去支持移民,给性别研究专业的交学费呢。让中国在技术上称霸去吧。至少咱们有多样性!

Stephen S S Hyde: You have a tough sell, WSJ, putting a technical article in front of a bunch of political junkie projectionists. Please keep trying though. Cheers, Steve

难以摊销,WSJ给一帮政治狂热的预测者看技术文章。不过还是接着试试吧。干杯,史蒂夫

Brousse B: My thoughts exactly - was this designed to be a technical advice or a political scare article.

我也这么觉得——这到底是技术建议还是政治恐吓的文章啊。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


BILL FENTON: Methinks this is more of an equities ad for those solid state battery companies at 90% off. Having lost 36K on Enron years ago I am a tough sell, am more of an index buyer now.

我觉得这更像是给那些固态电池公司打的广告,它们股价都跌了 90%了。我多年前在安然公司亏了3万6千美元,现在可不好忽悠,我现在更愿意买指数。

HOWARD SIMONS: Or you could simply stop the farce of forcing uneconomic EVs on everyone and this artificial problem and self-inflicted wound would go away.

或者你干脆别硬逼着大家都用不划算的电动汽车,这个人为的问题和自找的伤口就会消失

Michael Mellinger: BYD sells a $10,000 EV in China. That’s uneconomical?

比亚迪在中国卖 1 万美元的电动车。这还不划算?

John Pound: Pushing on a string, at least in the US where EVs are a tiny niche (8%+/-) of all auto sales and a horrendous source of financial losses for all US automakers save Tesla which so far has made money on fanboys, virtue signaling and government subsidies and tax credits.

在美国,电动车就是个小得不能再小的市场(大概 8%),占汽车总销量很少,除了特斯拉,美国那些汽车制造商在这上头都亏惨了。到现在为止特斯拉就靠粉丝、装装样子还有政府补贴和税收减免赚钱。

Robert Sayre: Tesla just got some bad news today with sales down almost 5% and stock down 16%. Rivian needed a cash infusion from Volkswagen last week to survive, and Fiskar went bankrupt last week. The market is speaking.

特斯拉今天有坏消息,销量降了快5%,股票跌16%。Rivian上周得靠大众汽车给它注资才能活下去,Fiskar上周破产了,市场会说话的。

David Mcmahon: The market is dynamic and EVs are the future. Strange definition of "tiny". Be careful what you say, its going to be a much larger "niche" over the next 5 years.

市场是动态的,电动车才是未来。“很小”的定义很奇怪。小心你说的话,它会在接下来的 5 年里成为一个大得多的“细分市场”。

E Goldberg: Solid state batteries have been the holy grail for EV proponents for some time. But they have yet to see the light of day, for some very good reasons. The main one being their cost to produce, which is beyond prohibitive. EVs already have a major upfront cost disadvantage vs ICE vehicles and hybrids. Solid state batteries would worsen that cost disparity exponentially. They also perform much worse than Li ion batteries at cold temps and have an annoying tendency to form dendrites. But the EV loyalists can keep dreaming about them if it makes them feel better, I guess.

固态电池一直是电动汽车支持者心中的宝贝。但由于效益原因,它们尚未问世。生产成本过高,令人望而却步。电动汽车与内燃机汽车和混合动力汽车相比,已经在前期成本上处于很大的劣势。固态电池会使这种成本差距呈指数级恶化。它们在低温下的性能也比锂离子电池差得多,还老爱长枝晶。不过我猜电动汽车的铁粉要是觉得想想能舒服点,可以继续梦想。

David Eyke: An electric vehicle will always be 1,000 pounds heavier than a gasoline-powered vehicle with a full tank of gas. Always. Over 100,000 miles that’s a terrific amount of destruction to road and bridge infrastructure.

一辆电动汽车总是比一辆加满油的汽油动力汽车重 1000 磅。总是这样。跑个 10 万英里以上,对道路和桥梁基础设施是一个巨大的破坏量。

John Robins: New battery technologies are wonderful until they're no longer new. Eventually we'll have to develop a final resting place for what could become mountains of dead batteries that have reached the end of economic life.

新电池技术一开始是挺好,但最终我们将不得不为那些已经达到经济寿命终点的堆积如山的废电池,找个最终的归宿。

WILLIAM MARSHALL: Interesting that both the technology and manufacturing process was given to China by the Republicans. Develop under an Obama initiative, Republicans cut the funding and the Chinese picked it up, fully funded advance development and set up two companies waited for the inevitable shift in the market. Overall US technological weakness is the Republican party itself. Pending the next election, the US can fall further behind.

有意思的是,技术和制造流程都是共和党给中国的。在奥巴马倡议下发展,共和党砍了资金,中国人接手了,全力资助先进研发,还开了两家公司,就等着市场必然的转变。总的来说,美国的技术弱点就是共和党本身。等下次选举,美国可能更落后了。

Thom Wright: It seems you believe that Government, not industry, should fund R&D. Do you think we should just be China? We saw it very clearly with the Obama administration's funding of alternative power (solar and wind), it was all and only about pushing cash into the hands of Obama's big supporters, using taxpayer dollars to further enrich Democrat benefactors.

似乎你认为政府该资助研发,不是行业自己来。你觉得我们应该像中国那样?我们从奥巴马政府对替代能源(太阳能和风能)的资助中看得很清楚,这纯粹就是把钱塞给奥巴马的大支持者们手中,拿纳税人的钱让民主党的受益人更有钱。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Ajay Sharma: Given the lead that the Chinese already have on battery technology, it is foolhardy to push government-mandated EV adoption here in the US. If you think dependence on Middle East for oil was a problem, just imagine how much bigger this problem is! China will control our entire energy supply (via batteries). I am thoroughly dismayed by this administration's mandates for EV adoption. Of course we all know that Biden is asleep at the wheel, so what did we expect?

鉴于中国在电池技术方面已经取得的领先地位,在美国强行推行政府规定的电动汽车是鲁莽的。如果你认为对中东石油的依赖是个问题,想象一下这个问题有多大!中国将控制我们的整个能源供应(通过电池)。我对本届美国政府强制采用电动车的规定深感沮丧。当然了,我们都知道拜登在掌舵时睡着了,所以我们还能期待什么?

Roger R: The EV tax credits have sourcing requirements on the batteries.

电动车的税收减免对电池有采购要求。

Marc Jones: Tulips. Unfortunately, unlike the initial tulip craze which burned the money of volunteer investors, this one uses tax dollars taken from both the living and the yet unborn.

郁金香。不幸的是,与最初的郁金香热潮不同,那次热潮烧掉了自愿投资者的钱,这次用的是从活人和还没出生的人那里征来的税款。

FRANK BOVINE: have to do something, otherwise you won't be able to get insurance on your florida/texas house.

必须做点什么,否则你将无法为你在佛罗里达州/得克萨斯州的房子购买保险。

Robert Hoff: EVs work for a large part of the world with only electricity. Providing cheap transportation and daily fueling by electricity is massive. The US will be the last, if ever, adopter.

对于世界上很大一部分地区来说,

JOHN WATSON: Nobody. Wants. Them. Wake up.

没人。想要。他们。醒来。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


dave hulett: Nobody? EV sales in the US and WW has grown and continues to grow every year. Has it slipped so far this year? Sure, but so have gas powered cars. A doubling of interest rates has that effect on gas powered cars too.

没人?美国和全球的电动汽车销量每年都在增长并且还在持续增长。今年有所下滑吗?当然燃油车也一样,利率翻倍对燃油车也有这种影响。

M Sugarman: The most revolutionary battery company that no one is talking about is #ENVX.... Enovix.

最具革命性的电池公司,没人提起是伊诺维克斯。

Jose Chao: British company is aiming to disrupt the EV car charging market. Nyobolt, based in Cambridge, England, has developed a battery that took just four and a half minutes to charge from 10% to 80%. That’s about 75% faster than it takes current chargers, such as Tesla’s Supercharger, to complete. And Nyobolt’s CEO says he thinks the technology could be ready to use sooner than you think, saying “Our extensive research here in the UK and U.S. has unlocked a novel battery technology that is ready and scalable right now. We are enabling the electrification of new products and services currently considered inviable or impossible.”

一家英国公司正致力于颠覆电动汽车充电市场。位于英格兰剑桥的尼欧博尔特公司开发了一种电池,从 10%充电到 80%仅需四分半钟。这比目前的充电器,比如特斯拉的超级充电器,快了大约 75%。尼欧博尔特的首席执行官表示,这技术能投入使用的时间比你想的要早,他说:“我们在英国和美国的广泛研究已经解锁了一种新颖的电池技术,现在就已经准备好并且能规模化应用。我们正在让那些现在看来没法电气化或者不可能电气化的新产品和服务实现电气化。”

Robert Hutchings: Here's an idea: steam-powered autos. With EVs, we are already back to the 1800s. We might as well go all the way back.

嘿,我有这么个主意:蒸汽动力汽车。有了电动汽车后,我们已经一夜回到 19 世纪。干脆咱们彻底回到过去得了。

JOHN YOUNG: There is a Stanley Steamer car in the West Hartford Ct AAA, it belong to a Doctor and is beautiful restoration. Steam cars where not very practical because every time you went any where you had to build a fire in boiler and wait for steam pressure to build. Of coarse it may have been faster than My Doctor office.

在西哈特福德康涅狄格州的美国汽车协会那儿有一辆斯坦利蒸汽汽车,是属于一位医生的,修复得可美了。蒸汽汽车不太实用啊,因为每次你不管去哪儿,都得在锅炉里点火,然后等待蒸汽压力上升。当然啦,这没准比我去医生办公室还快些。

donald mahoney: Simple, don't buy and EV. Save money and get a gas driven car. Trump will turn the fossil fuel back on upon his re-election.

很简单,不买电动车。省钱,买辆汽油车。特朗普将在连任后重新启用化石燃料。

Cara Acot: That's why any tariffs with the new administration will undoubtedly help rare earth producers like MP Materials (also soon to be an integrated batteries producer). We simply need to also be able to do it here.

就因为这样,新政府弄的任何关税肯定会帮到像 MP 材料那种稀土生产商(很快也要变成综合电池生产商了)。我们需要也能够在美国搞成。

Eric Larson: We have everything in the US, but Administration won't let us use it to do it. Lithium, lots of it in California, other rare earth, loads in Wyoming. We have lots of copper that can't be mined as well. Same for

美国啥都有,可政府不让咱用这些东西来做事。加利福尼亚有大量的锂,怀俄明一堆其他类别稀土。我们还有很多铜也不能开采。情况都一样。

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