如果特朗普-万斯当选，美元将贬值？

Donald J. Trump’s sextion of Ohio Senator J.D. Vance to be his vice-presidential nominee pairs him with a kindred spirit on trade, taxes and a tough stance on China. But it is their shared affinity for a weak dollar that could have the most sweeping implications for the United States and the global economy.

特朗普选择俄亥俄州参议员J·D·万斯作为副总统候选人，在贸易、税收和对中国的强硬立场上，两人志趣相投。但是可能对美国和全球经济产生最广泛影响的是他们对弱势美元的共同偏好。

In most cases, Mr. Trump likes his policies to be “strong,” but when it comes to the value of the dollar, he has long expressed a different view. Its strength, he has argued, has made it harder for American manufacturers to sell their products abroad to buyers that use weaker currencies. That’s because their money is worth so much less than the dollars that they need to make those purchases.

在大多数情况下，特朗普喜欢他的政策表现出“强势”，但在美元汇率问题上，他一直在表达着不同的观点。他认为，美元的强势使得美国制造商更难向使用较弱货币的海外买家销售产品。因为那些国家的货币价值远远低于他们进行采购所需的美元。

“As your president, one would think that I would be thrilled with our very strong dollar,” Mr. Trump said in 2019, explaining that U.S. companies like Caterpillar and Boeing were struggling to compete. “I am not!”

“作为你们的总统，有人会认为我会乐于看到非常强势的美元，并不是！”特朗普在2019年说，他提到卡特彼勒和波音等美国公司在竞争中举步维艰。

The dollar has been the world’s dominant currency since World War II, and central banks hold about 60 percent of their foreign exchange reserves in dollars, according to the Congressional Research Service.

自第二次世界大战以来，美元一直是世界上占主导地位的货币，根据国会研究服务部的数据，各国央行的外汇储备中约有60%是美元。

The United States has maintained a “strong dollar” policy since the 1990s, when Robert E. Rubin, the Treasury secretary at the time, declared that he did not view it as a threat to the ability of American business to compete abroad. The United States avoids taking measures to steer the strength of the dollar, and Treasury secretaries tend to argue that currency values should be determined by market forces. When countries, such as China, have acted to weaken their currencies, the U.S. has shamed them as currency manipulators.

自20世纪90年代以来，美国一直保持着“强势美元”政策，当时的财政部长罗伯特·鲁宾称，他不认为这对美国企业在海外竞争的能力构成威胁。美国会避免采取措施引导美元走强，财政部长们倾向于认为，货币价值应由市场力量决定。当中国等国采取行动压低本币汇率时，美国就会斥责它们是汇率操纵国。

It is not clear how Mr. Trump would go about weakening the dollar. His Treasury Department could try to sell dollars to buy foreign currency or try to persuade the Federal Reserve to just print more dollars.

目前尚不清楚特朗普将如何削弱美元。他的财政部可以尝试出售美元来购买外币，或者说服美联储印刷更多的美元。

A concerted shift in policy could have reverberations for international commerce of all kinds. The depreciation of the dollar, along with Mr. Trump’s plan to increase tariffs on imports, could also reignite inflation when price increases are finally easing.

协调一致的政策转变可能会对各种国际贸易产生影响。美元贬值，再加上特朗普提高进口关税的计划，也可能在物价上涨最终放缓之际重新引发通胀。

“Depreciation would add to inflation,” said Mark Sobel, a former longtime Treasury Department official who is now the U.S. chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. “So would tariff hikes. Plus, a highly expansionary fiscal policy would add to demand pressures.”

“贬值会加剧通胀，”曾长期供职于财政部、现任官方货币与金融机构论坛美国主席马克·索贝尔说。“提高关税也是如此。此外，高度扩张性的财政政策将加大需求压力。”

Skeptics of a strong dollar say it is responsible for making U.S. exports too costly abroad at the expense of American workers, and seeking to due it aligns with the populist ethos of Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance.

对强势美元持怀疑态度的人说，这会导致美国出口商品在海外市场的价格过高，损害的是美国工人的利益，寻求让美元贬值与特朗普和万斯的民粹主义精神是一致的。

At a Senate hearing last year, Mr. Vance echoed Mr. Trump’s concerns while questioning Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair. He said the dollar’s status as the reserve currency, which means it is widely held in central banks around the world and accepted for most kinds of transactions, was a subsidy for U.S. consumers but a tax on American manufacturers.

在去年的参议院听证会上，万斯在质询美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔时呼应了特朗普的担忧。他说，美元作为储备货币的地位（意味着美元被世界各地的央行广泛持有，并被大多数交易所接受）是对美国消费者的补贴，但却是对美国制造商的征税。

“I know the strong dollar is sort of the sacred cow of the Washington consensus, but when I survey the American economy, and I see our mass consumption of mostly useless imports on the one hand and our hollowed-out industrial base on the other hand, I wonder if the reserve currency status also has some downsides, and not just some upsides as well,” Mr. Vance said.

“我知道强势美元在某种程度上是华盛顿共识中的圣牛，但当我调查美国经济时，我看到，我们一方面大量消费基本无用的进口商品，另一方面我们的工业基础被掏空，我想知道储备货币地位是否也有一些弊端，并非只有好处，”万斯说。

Mr. Powell responded by noting that the United States benefits from its reserve currency status, which makes it possible to buy goods all over the world with dollars. He also said there was not an obvious currency to replace it.

鲍威尔回应说，美国受益于其储备货币的地位，这令使用美元在世界各地购买商品成为可能。他还表示，没有一种明显的货币可以取代美元。

The strength of the dollar has gained global attention this year as its value appreciated compared with other countries’ currencies as a result of higher interest rates. That can complicate matters for central banks around the world that are grappling with inflation, and by making American exports more expensive, it can widen the U.S. trade deficit, which Mr. Trump loathes.

由于利率上升，美元相对于其他国家的货币升值，美元的强势今年受到了全球的关注。这可能会使世界各地正在努力应对通胀的央行面临的问题变得更加复杂，而且会提高美国出口产品的价格，从而扩大美国的贸易逆差，这是特朗普所厌恶的。

The 2024 Republican Party platform calls for keeping the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, but Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance could still try to weaken it if elected this year. Robert E. Lighthizer, Mr. Trump’s former trade adviser, who could be a candidate to be his next Treasury secretary, has been mulling ways to due the dollar if the former president wins, Politico reported this year.

共和党在2024年的竞选纲领中呼吁保持美元作为世界储备货币的地位，但如果特朗普和万斯今年当选，他们仍可能试图削弱美元。《政治》(Politico)杂志今年报道，特朗普的前贸易顾问罗伯特·莱特希泽可能会成为下一任财政部长的候选人之一，如果前总统获胜的话该如何让美元贬值，这是他一直在考虑的问题。

Mr. Trump could try to due the dollar either by signaling a policy shift, appointing a new Federal Reserve chair when Mr. Powell’s term ends in 2026 who is likely to cut interest rates, or by trying to use the threat of tariffs to compel other countries to act to strengthen their own currencies.

特朗普可能会试图让美元贬值，要么发出政策转变的信号，在鲍威尔2026年任期结束时任命一位可能降息的新美联储主席，或者试图利用关税威胁，迫使其他国家采取行动让本币升值。

Brad Setser, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who served in the Biden administration’s trade office, said the Trump-Vance team faced a “core contradiction” in its economic agenda. He noted that Mr. Trump’s proposed tax cuts would probably widen the fiscal deficit and push up interest rates, supporting the dollar. At the same time, Mr. Trump’s trade agenda would most likely encourage other countries to weaken their currencies relative to the dollar in response to his tariffs.

曾在拜登政府贸易办公室任职的外交关系委员会研究员布拉德·塞策表示，特朗普-万斯团队在经济议程上面临“核心矛盾”。他指出，特朗普提出的减税计划可能会扩大财政赤字，推高利率，从而支撑美元。与此同时，特朗普的贸易议程很可能会鼓励其他国家令本币对美元贬值，以回应他的关税。

Mr. Trump has called for imposing a 10 percent levy on all imports and a 60 percent duty on imports from China.

特朗普呼吁对所有进口商品征收10%的关税，对从中国进口的商品征收60%的关税。

“If you punish other countries, hit them with tariffs, reduce the value of their exports, the effect tends to be their currencies weaken,” Mr. Setser said.

“如果你惩罚其他国家，用关税打击它们，降低它们的出口价值，结果往往是它们的货币贬值，”塞策说。

Lawrence H. Summers, who served as Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, said a move to due the dollar could lead to “stagflation” — when prices rise and growth slows.

曾在克林顿政府担任财政部长的劳伦斯·萨默斯说，让美元贬值可能导致“滞胀”——物价上涨而经济增长放缓。

“If a country’s government does not care about the value of its money, why should anyone else?” Mr. Summers said. “Raising tariffs while duing the dollar are self-imposed supply shocks.”

“如果一个国家的政府都不关心本币的价值，其他人凭什么要关心？”萨默斯说。“在美元贬值的同时提高关税是自我强加的供应冲击。”

Despite his interest in a weaker dollar, Mr. Trump has given mixed messages on the matter.

尽管特朗普对美元走弱很感兴趣，但他在这个问题上释放的信息并不明确。

In 2017, he told The Wall Street Journal that the dollar “is getting too strong.” The next year, however, Mr. Trump told CNBC that “ultimately I want to see a strong dollar” after remarks by his Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, suggesting that a weaker dollar could be good for trade led to a sharp decline in the dollar index.

2017年，他对《华尔街日报》表示，美元“正变得过于强势”。然而，第二年，特朗普在接受CNBC采访时表示，“我最终希望看到强势美元”，此前他的财政部长史蒂文·马努钦表示，美元走弱可能有利于贸易，导致美元指数大幅下跌。

But this April, as the dollar surged against the yen, Mr. Trump said the strength of the dollar was going to put American companies out of business.

但今年4月，随着美元兑日元大幅升值，特朗普表示，美元走强会让美国公司活不下去。

“It sounds good to stupid people, but it is a disaster for our manufacturers and others,” Mr. Trump said on social media.

“对愚蠢的人来说，这听起来不错，但对我们的制造商和其他人来说，这是一场灾难，”特朗普在社交媒体上写道。