RT:如果西方没收俄罗斯资产,沙特将抛售西方债务,此举可能打破西方的金融架构
2024-07-19 碧波荡漾恒河水 6949
正文翻译

Seeing efforts to seize Russian assets in the US and the EU, rich Gulf investors are getting worried about the safety of their own wealth

看到美国和欧盟扣押俄罗斯资产的努力,富裕的海湾投资者开始担心自己财富的安全。

Private property has always been regarded as something sacred for humanity. Today, however, this sanctity and inviolability of private property are under threat. In the modern world, where economic and political instability are becoming increasingly common, the legal systems and international agreements designed to protect property rights are facing new challenges. Asset confiscation, economic sanctions, and political pressure threaten the traditional notions of property inviolability, forcing people to reassess their beliefs and seek new ways to safeguard their interests.

私有财产一直被认为是人类的某种神圣的东西。然而,今天私有财产的这种神圣性和不可侵犯性正受到威胁。在经济和政治不稳定日益普遍的现代世界,旨在保护产权的法律制度和国际协议正面临着新的挑战。财产没收、经济制裁和政治压力威胁到财产不可侵犯的传统观念,迫使人们重新评估自己的信仰,寻求维护自身利益的新途径。

Last week, global media outlets reported that at the beginning of this year, Saudi Arabia hinted at the possibility of selling some of its European debt holdings if the G7 countries moved forward with plans to confiscate nearly $300 billion of Russia’s frozen assets. This information came from sources familiar with the situation, adding a layer of complexity to the already tense geopolitical landscape.

上周,全球媒体报道称,今年年初,沙特阿拉伯暗示,如果七国集团推进没收俄罗斯近3000亿美元冻结资产的计划,沙特可能会出售部分欧洲债务。这一消息来自熟悉局势的消息来源,给本已紧张的地缘政治局势增加了一层复杂性。

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance communicated to some G7 partners its strong disapproval of the proposed measure, which was intended to support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. One insider described the communication as a veiled threat, highlighting the kingdom’s serious intent to protect its financial interests. The Saudis specifically mentioned French Treasury-issued debts, underscoring their strategic approach to leveraging their economic influence.

沙特阿拉伯财政部向七国集团的一些伙伴国传达了对拟议措施的强烈反对,该措施旨在支持乌克兰与俄罗斯的冲突。一位内部人士称,这封信函是一种隐晦的威胁,突显了沙特保护其经济利益的严肃意图。沙特特别提到了法国国债,强调了他们利用其经济影响力的战略方针。

During the period from May to June, G7 countries deliberated over various options concerning the Russian Central Bank’s assets. The discussions were intense and multifaceted, considering both the legal and economic ramifications. Ultimately, the group reached a consensus to utilize only the earnings generated from these assets, leaving the principal intact. This cautious approach was adopted despite considerable pressure from the United States and the United Kingdom, which advocated for more assertive measures, including the direct confiscation of Russian assets.

在5月至6月期间,七国集团国家审议了有关俄罗斯央行资产的各种选择。考虑到法律和经济后果,讨论是激烈和多方面的。最终,该集团达成共识,只使用这些资产产生的收益,而不保留本金。尽管美国和联合王国施加了相当大的压力,但采取了这种谨慎的做法,这两个国家主张采取更果断的措施,包括直接没收俄罗斯的资产。

The proposal to confiscate Russian assets outright faced significant resistance, particularly from some Eurozone member countries. These nations expressed concerns about the potential negative repercussions on their own currencies and broader economic stability. This internal opposition within the G7 highlighted a notable division among its members, revealing that not all were prepared to endorse radical measures. This divide persists even as the conflict in Ukraine continues and the necessity to support its beleaguered economy grows more urgent.

彻底没收俄罗斯资产的提议遭到了强烈抵制,尤其是来自一些欧元区成员国的抵制。这些国家对本国货币和整体经济稳定可能受到的负面影响表示担忧。G7内部的反对凸显了成员国之间的显著分歧,表明并非所有成员国都准备支持该激进措施。尽管乌克兰的冲突仍在继续,支持其陷入困境的经济的必要性变得更加迫切,但这种分歧依然存在。

Additionally, the broader implications of Saudi Arabia’s stance cannot be ignored. The kingdom’s potential sale of European debt holdings could have a ripple effect across global financial markets, potentially destabilizing the delicate balance of international debt and equity markets. Such a move would also signify a significant geopolitical shift, demonstrating Saudi Arabia’s willingness to use its economic power as a tool of political influence.

此外,沙特阿拉伯立场的更广泛影响也不容忽视。沙特可能出售所持的欧洲债券,可能会对全球金融市场产生连锁反应,可能破坏国际债务和股票市场的微妙平衡。此举还将标志着一个重大的地缘政治转变,表明沙特愿意利用其经济实力作为政治影响力的工具。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The G7’s cautious decision to utilize only the earnings from Russian assets reflects a broader hesitation to escalate financial sanctions to the point of asset confiscation. This decision underscores the complexity of international financial diplomacy, where economic decisions are intricately tied to political and strategic considerations. As the situation evolves, the international community will be closely watching how these financial and geopolitical strategies unfold, particularly in the context of the conflict in Ukraine and the global economic landscape.

七国集团谨慎地决定只利用俄罗斯资产的收益,反映出他们对将金融制裁升级到没收资产的程度存在更广泛的犹豫。这一决定凸显了国际金融外交的复杂性,经济决策与政治和战略考虑有着错综复杂的联系。随着形势的发展,国际社会将密切关注这些金融和地缘政治战略如何展开,特别是在乌克兰冲突和全球经济格局的背景下。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Riyadh has serious clout
Against the backdrop of escalating international tensions and economic sanctions, Saudi Arabia’s reaction to the potential measures by G7 countries to confiscate Russian assets has garnered significant attention. The kingdom not only voiced its discontent but also hinted at possible economic countermeasures, highlighting its growing influence on the global stage and its strategic intentions.

利雅得拥有强大的影响力
在国际紧张局势升级和经济制裁的背景下,沙特阿拉伯对七国集团可能采取措施没收俄罗斯资产的反应引起了广泛关注。沙特不仅表达了不满,还暗示了可能采取的经济应对措施,突显了其在全球舞台上日益增长的影响力和战略意图。

Saudi Arabia’s active investments in Western markets through its sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), underscore its significant financial clout. The PIF is a cornerstone of the ambitious Vision 2030 program, which aims to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on oil revenues.

沙特阿拉伯通过其主权财富基金——公共投资基金(PIF)在西方市场的积极投资,突显了其重要的金融影响力。PIF是雄心勃勃的愿景2030计划的基石,该计划旨在实现经济多元化,减少对石油收入的依赖。

By the end of 2023, PIF managed assets totaling approximately $925 billion, with plans to increase this to $1.07 trillion by 2025. Additionally, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) holds substantial foreign reserves, estimated at $423.7 billion as of April this year.

到2023年底,PIF管理的资产总额约为9250亿美元,计划到2025年将其增加到1.07万亿美元。此外,沙特阿拉伯金融管理局(SAMA)持有大量外汇储备,截至今年4月估计为4,237亿美元。

The PIF’s investment strategy spans various sectors and regions. For example, the fund invested $45 billion in the UK-based SoftBank Vision Fund, focusing on technological innovations. In 2023, PIF announced plans to invest $40 billion in US infrastructure projects, with $20 billion already allocated to a joint project with Blackstone. According to Gulf Business, in 2021, the fund acquired significant stakes in American video game companies such as Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard, and in 2022, it purchased a 5% stake in the Japanese company Nintendo.

PIF的投资策略涵盖多个行业和地区。例如,该基金向总部位于英国的软银愿景基金(SoftBank Vision fund)投资了450亿美元,专注于技术创新。2023年,PIF宣布计划向美国基础设施项目投资400亿美元,其中200亿美元已分配给与黑石集团的一个联合项目。据《海湾商业》报道,该基金于2021年收购了美国电子游戏公司ea和动视暴雪等大量股份,并于2022年收购了日本任天堂公司5%的股份。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Beyond the technology sector, PIF is actively investing in real estate, infrastructure, and financial services. In November 2023, the fund acquired a 10% stake in Heathrow Airport, and in December, it purchased a 49% stake in the Rocco Forte hotel chain, valued at $1.8 billion. This year, the fund also acquired a 38% stake in the German company HOLON GmbH.

除了科技领域,PIF还积极投资于房地产、基础设施和金融服务。2023年11月,该基金收购了希思罗机场(Heathrow Airport) 10%的股份,去年12月,该基金以18亿美元的价格收购了Rocco Forte连锁酒店49%的股份。今年,该基金还收购了德国公司HOLON GmbH 38%的股份。

Riyadh’s concerns are well-founded, as the authorities are anxious about the potential fate of their Western assets, which are estimated to be worth up to $600 billion. Currently, Saudi Arabia’s relations with the West are strained, both with Washington and Brussels, which continuously exert pressure on the kingdom due to its reluctance to join in isolating Russia and to pursue a pro-Western foreign policy.

利雅得的担忧是有根据的,因为当局担心他们在西方资产的潜在命运,这些资产估计价值高达6000亿美元。目前,沙特阿拉伯与西方的关系紧张,无论是与华盛顿还是与布鲁塞尔,由于沙特不愿加入孤立俄罗斯和奉行亲西方外交政策的行列,他们不断向沙特施加压力。

Regardless of the motives, Saudi Arabia’s actions underscore its growing influence on the global stage and the challenges Western countries face in garnering support from the Global South for their anti-Russian policies. Under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh is increasingly positioning itself as a diplomatic force and diversifying its foreign policy and economic ties with Moscow, Beijing, and other non-Western power centers.

无论动机如何,沙特阿拉伯的行动突显了其在全球舞台上日益增长的影响力,以及西方国家在争取全球南方国家支持其反俄政策方面面临的挑战。在沙特阿拉伯事实上的统治者、王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼的领导下,利雅得正日益将自己定位为外交力量,并使其与莫斯科、北京和其他非西方权力中心的外交政策和经济关系多样化。

The end of the dollar era?
In recent months, the world has witnessed significant shifts in the global economic landscape. Saudi Arabia, long a key player in maintaining the US dollar as the dominant currency in global trade, is taking steps that could radically alter this dynamic. The kingdom’s decision to not renew the 50-year-old petrodollar agreement with the US and its active participation in de-dollarization raise critical questions: Will these actions herald the end of the dollar era, and what could be the consequences for the global economy?

美元时代的终结?
近几个月来,世界目睹了全球经济格局的重大变化。长期以来,在维持美元在全球贸易中的主导地位方面发挥关键作用的沙特阿拉伯,正在采取可能从根本上改变这种格局的措施。沙特决定不再与美国续签已有50年历史的石油美元协议,并积极参与去美元化,这引发了一些关键问题:这些行动是否预示着美元时代的终结? 对全球经济可能会产生什么后果?

The petrodollar agreement, signed by Saudi Arabia and the US on June 8, 1974, became a cornerstone of America’s global economic influence. This agreement established joint commissions for economic cooperation and meeting Saudi Arabia’s military needs. In return, the kingdom committed to selling oil exclusively in US dollars, bolstering the American currency’s position on the world stage and maintaining high demand for the dollar.

沙特阿拉伯和美国于1974年6月8日签署的石油美元协议,成为美国全球经济影响力的基石。该协定设立了经济合作和满足沙特阿拉伯军事需要的联合委员会。作为回报,沙特承诺只以美元出售石油,从而巩固美元在世界舞台上的地位,并维持对美元的高需求。

On June 9 of this year, Saudi Arabia decided not to renew this pivotal agreement. The kingdom now has the flexibility to sell oil and other commodities using various currencies, such as the yuan, euro, or yen, instead of the US dollar. Additionally, the possibility of using digital currencies like Bitcoin for transactions is being explored. This move opens new avenues for diversifying economic relations and reducing dependence on the US dollar, thereby accelerating the global trend toward using alternative currencies in international trade.

今年6月9日,沙特阿拉伯决定不再续签这一关键协议。沙特现在可以灵活地使用人民币、欧元或日元等多种货币出售石油和其他大宗商品,而不是使用美元。此外,正在探索使用比特币等数字货币进行交易的可能性。此举为经济关系多样化和减少对美元的依赖开辟了新的途径,从而加速了在国际贸易中使用替代货币的全球趋势。

Particular attention should be given to the role of the BRICS group of countries, of which Saudi Arabia became a member on January 1, 2024. The BRICS nations actively promote the use of national currencies in international transactions and are developing their own financial institutions. De-dollarization is becoming increasingly relevant, especially for emerging economies seeking to reduce their reliance on the US currency and financial system.

应该特别关注金砖国家集团的作用,沙特阿拉伯于2024年1月1日成为金砖国家集团的成员。金砖国家积极推动在国际交易中使用本国货币,并正在发展自己的金融机构。去美元化正变得越来越重要,尤其是对寻求减少对美元和金融体系依赖的新兴经济体而言。

Saudi Arabia’s decision and the BRICS countries’ push for de-dollarization could have significant repercussions for the global economy. If de-dollarization continues to gain momentum, it could lead to a decreased demand for the dollar, impacting its value. A weakening dollar might challenge the United States’ ability to maintain its financial stability and global influence.

沙特阿拉伯的决定和金砖国家推动去美元化可能对全球经济产生重大影响。如果去美元化继续获得动力,它可能导致对美元的需求下降,影响其价值。疲软的美元可能会挑战美国维持金融稳定和全球影响力的能力。

Despite significant strides toward de-dollarization, declaring the end of the dollar as the world’s primary currency is premature. The dollar still holds a central place in international transactions and the reserve assets of central banks worldwide. However, Saudi Arabia’s actions and the BRICS’ ambitions indicate a growing movement toward a multipolar currency system, where the dollar is no longer the sole dominant player.

尽管在去美元化方面取得了重大进展,但宣布美元作为世界主要货币的终结还为时过早。美元仍然在国际交易和全球央行的储备资产中占据中心地位。然而,沙特阿拉伯的行动和金砖国家的雄心表明,世界正朝着多极货币体系发展,美元不再是唯一的主导货币。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


One-way road to destruction
Amid global economic and political uncertainty, the G7 countries find it increasingly challenging to identify ways to support Ukraine and counteract Russia. Their decisions have far-reaching implications, influencing global economic relations and financial stability. In June, after extended discussions at the summit in Italy, a decision was made to establish a financial structure that would provide Ukraine with approximately $50 billion in new aid.

走向毁灭的单行道
在全球经济和政治不确定的情况下,七国集团发现,找到支持乌克兰和对抗俄罗斯的方法越来越具有挑战性。他们的决定影响深远,影响全球经济关系和金融稳定。今年6月,在意大利峰会上进行了长时间的讨论后,各方决定建立一个金融结构,为乌克兰提供大约500亿美元的新援助。

The seven participating countries and the EU agreed to extend loans to be repaid from the profits generated by around $280 billion in frozen Russian assets, most of which are held in Europe. This decision was a compromise, as there is no consensus even among Western states, given the potentially catastrophic consequences of confiscating Russian assets.

七个参与国和欧盟同意延长贷款期限,从冻结的2800亿美元俄罗斯资产产生的利润中偿还贷款,这些资产大部分在欧洲持有。这一决定是一种妥协,因为考虑到没收俄罗斯资产可能带来的灾难性后果,甚至在西方国家之间也没有达成共识。

Firstly, the seizure of Russian assets sets a dangerous precedent in the international financial system. Traditionally, state reserves held abroad were considered untouchable. Their confiscation could undermine the confidence of nations in the safety of their funds stored in foreign banks and financial institutions. This might lead countries to reconsider their reserve placement policies and result in a mass withdrawal of assets from foreign financial systems, causing turbulence in financial markets and weakening the stability of the international financial system.

首先,扣押俄罗斯资产为国际金融体系树立了一个危险的先例。传统上,持有海外的国家储备被认为是不可触碰的。没收这些资产可能会破坏各国对其存放在外国银行和金融机构的资金安全的信心。这可能导致各国重新考虑其储备配置政策,并导致大量资产从外国金融体系中撤出,从而引发金融市场动荡,削弱国际金融体系的稳定性。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Moreover, such actions could push nations to seek alternative financial institutions and instruments independent of the G7 countries. This could strengthen regional economic blocs, foster the development of new financial systems such as China’s CIPS, and support BRICS initiatives to use national currencies, thereby reducing the influence of Western financial institutions and the US dollar in the global economy.

此外,此类行动可能会促使各国寻求独立于七国集团之外的替代金融机构和工具。这可以加强区域经济集团,促进中国CIPS等新金融体系的发展,并支持金砖国家使用本国货币的倡议,从而减少西方金融机构和美元在全球经济中的影响力。

The seizure of Russian assets also raises serious questions regarding international law. Fundamental principles of international law, such as the sovereign equality of states and the inviolability of property, could be violated by such actions. Sovereign equality implies that all states have equal rights and sovereignty, and their assets cannot be confiscated without legal grounds. The inviolability of property is a fundamental right protecting states’ assets from unlawful seizure.

扣押俄罗斯资产也引发了有关国际法的严重问题。国际法的基本原则,例如国家主权平等和财产不可侵犯,都可能被这种行动违反。主权平等是指各国享有平等的权利和主权,没有法律依据,各国的财产不得被没收。财产的不可侵犯性是保护国家财产不被非法扣押的一项基本权利。

The situation surrounding the potential confiscation of Russian assets remains tense and reflects the breakdown of the old world order. Saudi Arabia’s decision to sell European debt obligations could significantly impact financial markets, especially if it occurs amid existing economic problems in Europe. Additionally, other concerned regional investor states like the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and others might follow Riyadh’s lead in selling off European bonds.

围绕可能没收俄罗斯资产的局势仍然紧张,这反映了旧世界秩序的崩溃。沙特阿拉伯出售欧洲债务的决定可能会对金融市场产生重大影响,尤其是在欧洲存在经济问题的情况下。此外,阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特等其他地区投资者可能会效仿利雅得,抛售欧洲债券。

The modern global economy faces new challenges that require a reuation of existing mechanisms and strategies. The decision of the G7 leaders at the summit in Italy is seen as an attempt to balance interests and find compromise solutions amid global instability. However, the seizure of Russian assets and possible retaliatory measures from Saudi Arabia and other countries could significantly alter the balance of power in the international financial system. In these conditions, it is crucial to seek new paths for cooperation and stability to avoid destructive consequences for the global economy. Therefore, as the old world order, dominated by the West for decades, fades, an increasing number of countries from the global majority are interested in new mechanisms of global governance based on non-Western institutions, particularly BRICS.

现代全球经济面临新的挑战,需要对现有机制和战略进行重新评估。G7领导人在意大利峰会上的决定被视为在全球不稳定的情况下平衡利益并寻求妥协解决方案的尝试。然而,没收俄罗斯资产以及沙特阿拉伯和其他国家可能采取的报复措施,可能会显著改变国际金融体系的力量平衡。在这种情况下,至关重要的是寻求新的合作与稳定之路,以避免对全球经济造成破坏性后果。

评论翻译
Icterina
The seizure of Russian assets will backfire - to the detriment of the American, European and British economies. The tax payers will bleed while the wealthy will just move their money elsewhere.

扣押俄罗斯资产将适得其反——损害美国、欧洲和英国的经济。纳税人会流血,而富人会把钱转移到别处。

ابو نصر محمد الفارابي
Lol. Every American child opens their first or second history book only to learn that the Native Americans had no concept of private property. It is then used to say they didn't even believe they owned the land.

哈哈。每个美国孩子打开第一、第二本历史书,只会了解到美国土著没有私有财产的概念。然后就借此来说他们根本不相信土著拥有那片土地。

Budgshed
The West fake money scam are out in ther open now. About time they work like everybody else

西方的假币骗局现在公开了。他们也该像其他人一样工作了。

John J
I get a feeling the magnetic economic poles are going to flip to BRICS. For a good reason, the US is out of control.

我有一种感觉,经济磁极将转向金砖国家。由于一个很好的理由,美国已经失去了控制。

ابو نصر محمد الفارابي
John J, If they just stop making sacred bald faced lies they might just pull it off.

如果他们停止编造神圣的谎言,他们或许还能逃脱。

Alex B
The white racist Americans hate brown hair Arabs I don't know why any none white would allied themselves with white racist cracker Americans this white trash racist Americans hate none white

白人种族主义的美国人讨厌棕色头发的阿拉伯人,我不知道为什么非白人会和白人种族主义的美国人结盟,这些白人垃圾种族主义的美国人讨厌非白人。
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americanthinker
Alex B, Americans hate the Saudis for 9/11, the way they treat their women, the way they treat their own people, etc. Legitimate reasons, not racism.

美国人因为9/11讨厌沙特人,讨厌他们对待自己女人的方式,讨厌他们对待自己人民的方式,等等。这都是正当理由,不是种族歧视。

PeterPiper
In past decade 2 of the largest buyers of US treasury debt has been China and Saudis. The US is largest debtor in world holding up a ponzi scheme with over 120% debt to GDP and almost trillion dollars in interest per year. Once the Brics commit to move away completely from US dollars ( and debt ) Good luck finding deep pockets to finance that debt. The end of road becomes visible for US dollar domination.

过去10年,美国国债的最大买家一直是中国和沙特。美国是世界上最大的债务国,背负着庞氏骗局,债务占GDP的比例超过120%,每年有近万亿美元的利息。一旦金砖国家承诺完全摆脱美元(和债务),祝你好运,找到足够的资金来为这些债务融资。美元统治的道路已经走到了尽头。

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