油管博主称印度无法成为下一个中国，引发印度网友讨论
正文翻译
Bharatiya
Versus China:
We are currently behind them in Infrastructure and of course Manufacturing Base. But we are playing catch up in Infrastructure.
Why be so down trodden about Samsung setting up a factory here, even if it's the most basic assembly? Do you expect them to invest billions without doing a trial run?
Instead of comparing with China today, see China's trajectory. It took time for China to build the manufacturing base. The growth in the first phases had been slow. And then, once a threshold is passed, it accelerated.
We're in that hard phase now.
与中国相比：
我们目前在基础设施方面确实落后于他们，当然制造业也落后。但我们正在迎头赶上。
三星已经开始在印度建厂，哪怕只是最基本的组装厂，也没必要如此唱衰印度吧？难道你指望外资不试运行就立刻投资数十亿美元？
与其与今天的中国比较，不如看看中国的发展轨迹。中国建立制造业也不是一蹴而就的。第一阶段增长缓慢。然后，一旦迈过门槛，就会加速增长。
我们现在正处于这个艰难的第一阶段。
Bharatiya
Versus China:
We are currently behind them in Infrastructure and of course Manufacturing Base. But we are playing catch up in Infrastructure.
Why be so down trodden about Samsung setting up a factory here, even if it's the most basic assembly? Do you expect them to invest billions without doing a trial run?
Instead of comparing with China today, see China's trajectory. It took time for China to build the manufacturing base. The growth in the first phases had been slow. And then, once a threshold is passed, it accelerated.
We're in that hard phase now.
与中国相比：
我们目前在基础设施方面确实落后于他们，当然制造业也落后。但我们正在迎头赶上。
三星已经开始在印度建厂，哪怕只是最基本的组装厂，也没必要如此唱衰印度吧？难道你指望外资不试运行就立刻投资数十亿美元？
与其与今天的中国比较，不如看看中国的发展轨迹。中国建立制造业也不是一蹴而就的。第一阶段增长缓慢。然后，一旦迈过门槛，就会加速增长。
我们现在正处于这个艰难的第一阶段。
That video on Why India Is Not China is more blackpilling than an economic analysis. Having problems doesn't mean you aren't going to win—India today has been willing to solve the problems.
The guy presenting the video is misreading current problems to be unsolvable at best and is deliberately dencouncing India's potential at worst.
Point 1: Size of China's manufacturing and Point 2: India neglected manufacturing:
That's why we are playing catch up now and trying to figure out. This is a work in progress. There are several big obstacles to be tackled here and they will be tackled post-election.
“为什么印度不能成为中国”，这个视频与其说是经济分析，不如说是刻意贬低。存在问题并不意味着你不会赢——何况当下的印度愿意解决问题。
制作视频的人，往好里说，是误认为印度当前的问题无法解决，往坏里说，是故意贬低印度的潜力。
他列举了十点理由，我们来逐条分析：
第一点:中国制造业的规模庞大。
第二点:印度忽视制造业。
印度现在正在努力追赶建立自己的制造业。这里有几个大的障碍需要解决，这些障碍将在选举后得到解决。
The guy presenting the video is misreading current problems to be unsolvable at best and is deliberately dencouncing India's potential at worst.
Point 1: Size of China's manufacturing and Point 2: India neglected manufacturing:
That's why we are playing catch up now and trying to figure out. This is a work in progress. There are several big obstacles to be tackled here and they will be tackled post-election.
“为什么印度不能成为中国”，这个视频与其说是经济分析，不如说是刻意贬低。存在问题并不意味着你不会赢——何况当下的印度愿意解决问题。
制作视频的人，往好里说，是误认为印度当前的问题无法解决，往坏里说，是故意贬低印度的潜力。
他列举了十点理由，我们来逐条分析：
第一点:中国制造业的规模庞大。
第二点:印度忽视制造业。
印度现在正在努力追赶建立自己的制造业。这里有几个大的障碍需要解决，这些障碍将在选举后得到解决。
Point 3: China dominates traditional manufacturing:
Steel, Cement are the examples he gave.
While stating "These are two industries vital for future economic growth."
Everything needs to be taken in context. Here, it is certainly inappropriate. China has gone down the road of overbuilding.
Its constructions are not in response to demand, do not consider sustainability. China builds for the sake of building—to keep the economy going. They see Infrastructure as another engine of economy—far too much for their good.
Now they've put themselves in a position that they CANNOT stop the scale of their buildings. Even though the demand has already diminished, the production has not.
If they really try, tens of millions will be unemployed and big companies will be thrown into chaos. A chain reaction will hit their economy. The real estate housing crisis is only a part of this bigger bubble.
India needs to scale up infrastructure and in doing so, pull up its national steel and cement champions. This is not an indicator for why India is not next China. It's a ridiculous point.
第三点:中国的传统制造业非常强势。
他以钢铁，水泥举例，说:“这两个行业对未来经济增长至关重要。”
然而在当前的中国，这个例子是不合适的。因为中国已经走上了过度建设的道路。
它的建设不符合需求，不考虑可持续性。中国为了建设而建设——为了保持经济的发展。他们将建造基础设施视为拉动经济增长的引擎——远远超出了他们的需求。
现在，他们已经陷入了建筑规模不断扩大无法停止的境地。尽管需求已经减少，但产量并未减少。
如果他们继续下去，数千万人将失业，大公司将陷入混乱。连锁反应将打击他们的经济。房地产危机只是更大泡沫的一部分。
印度需要扩大基础设施规模，并在此过程中重振本国钢铁和水泥龙头企业。但规模不如中国并不能说明印度不能成为下一个中国。这是一个荒谬的观点。
Steel, Cement are the examples he gave.
While stating "These are two industries vital for future economic growth."
Everything needs to be taken in context. Here, it is certainly inappropriate. China has gone down the road of overbuilding.
Its constructions are not in response to demand, do not consider sustainability. China builds for the sake of building—to keep the economy going. They see Infrastructure as another engine of economy—far too much for their good.
Now they've put themselves in a position that they CANNOT stop the scale of their buildings. Even though the demand has already diminished, the production has not.
If they really try, tens of millions will be unemployed and big companies will be thrown into chaos. A chain reaction will hit their economy. The real estate housing crisis is only a part of this bigger bubble.
India needs to scale up infrastructure and in doing so, pull up its national steel and cement champions. This is not an indicator for why India is not next China. It's a ridiculous point.
第三点:中国的传统制造业非常强势。
他以钢铁，水泥举例，说:“这两个行业对未来经济增长至关重要。”
然而在当前的中国，这个例子是不合适的。因为中国已经走上了过度建设的道路。
它的建设不符合需求，不考虑可持续性。中国为了建设而建设——为了保持经济的发展。他们将建造基础设施视为拉动经济增长的引擎——远远超出了他们的需求。
现在，他们已经陷入了建筑规模不断扩大无法停止的境地。尽管需求已经减少，但产量并未减少。
如果他们继续下去，数千万人将失业，大公司将陷入混乱。连锁反应将打击他们的经济。房地产危机只是更大泡沫的一部分。
印度需要扩大基础设施规模，并在此过程中重振本国钢铁和水泥龙头企业。但规模不如中国并不能说明印度不能成为下一个中国。这是一个荒谬的观点。
Point 4: China's share of global exports
Investments were made post 1990s that continue to bear fruit. China has made the right call and empowered its MSMEs. Hence the situation.
India is taking steps to empower its MSMEs. With the steps currently being taken, it is rational to assume our share of global exports will start rising.
Point 5: The Chinese Ecosystem
Took time to be built. India is in its nascent state of manufacturing. Indian ecosystem will also be built and it will take time, but it will be built faster than Chinese ecosystem, no doubt.
第四点:中国在全球出口中的份额占比高
我承认，中国在20世纪90年代后进行的投资如今获得了回报，中国做出了正确的选择，扶持中小微企业，因此有了今天的地位。
而印度正在采取措施扶持其中小微企业。鉴于印度目前正在采取的措施，我们有理由认为，印度在全球出口中所占的份额将开始上升。
第5点:中国生态产业链较为全面
印度需要时间来打造自己的生态产业链。印度正处于制造业的起步阶段。印度的生态产业链也会逐步建立起来，这需要时间，但毫无疑问，它建立的速度将比同时期的中国更快。
Investments were made post 1990s that continue to bear fruit. China has made the right call and empowered its MSMEs. Hence the situation.
India is taking steps to empower its MSMEs. With the steps currently being taken, it is rational to assume our share of global exports will start rising.
Point 5: The Chinese Ecosystem
Took time to be built. India is in its nascent state of manufacturing. Indian ecosystem will also be built and it will take time, but it will be built faster than Chinese ecosystem, no doubt.
第四点:中国在全球出口中的份额占比高
我承认，中国在20世纪90年代后进行的投资如今获得了回报，中国做出了正确的选择，扶持中小微企业，因此有了今天的地位。
而印度正在采取措施扶持其中小微企业。鉴于印度目前正在采取的措施，我们有理由认为，印度在全球出口中所占的份额将开始上升。
第5点:中国生态产业链较为全面
印度需要时间来打造自己的生态产业链。印度正处于制造业的起步阶段。印度的生态产业链也会逐步建立起来，这需要时间，但毫无疑问，它建立的速度将比同时期的中国更快。
India is 10-15 Years Behind China
Of course. We wouldn't be working to catch up with them otherwise.
The youtuber points out the near stagnation of manufacturing as % of GDP. It's a correct observation for the past. But to project future off it is disingenuous without a proper study into why the stagnation even happened.
If economics is as simple as looking at a bunch of numbers and predicting future, economists would all be millionaires.
The stagnation had multiple reasons—most prominent being: lack of Infrastructure, looming banking crisis.
我个人认为印度落后中国10-15年
这没什么好否认的，否则我们就不会努力追赶他们了。
这位油管博主指出，印度制造业占GDP的比例接近停滞。这是对过去的正确观察。但如果不好好研究为什么会出现这种停滞，就以此来预测未来，那就大错特错了。
如果经济学家只靠一堆数字就能简单预测未来，那么每个经济学家都会成为百万富翁。
印度制造业停滞有多种原因，其中最突出的原因是：缺乏基础设施，和亟待解决的银行业问题。
Of course. We wouldn't be working to catch up with them otherwise.
The youtuber points out the near stagnation of manufacturing as % of GDP. It's a correct observation for the past. But to project future off it is disingenuous without a proper study into why the stagnation even happened.
If economics is as simple as looking at a bunch of numbers and predicting future, economists would all be millionaires.
The stagnation had multiple reasons—most prominent being: lack of Infrastructure, looming banking crisis.
我个人认为印度落后中国10-15年
这没什么好否认的，否则我们就不会努力追赶他们了。
这位油管博主指出，印度制造业占GDP的比例接近停滞。这是对过去的正确观察。但如果不好好研究为什么会出现这种停滞，就以此来预测未来，那就大错特错了。
如果经济学家只靠一堆数字就能简单预测未来，那么每个经济学家都会成为百万富翁。
印度制造业停滞有多种原因，其中最突出的原因是：缺乏基础设施，和亟待解决的银行业问题。
Point 6: India needs Chinese materials to manufacture
The youtuber is making a correct observation of an event—India imports a lot of stuff to manufacture the final product.
But he's making an incorrect projection. That India will keep doing so.
Local manufacturing for components will pick up eventually. China hasn't started doing 100% local manufacturing from day 1. It still doesn't.
Point 7: India's Infrastructure Problems
The youtuber states India's number 1 problem is Lack of Infrastructure.
That's something many can agree on. That's precisely why he shouldn't make a pessimistic projection because Indian govt is spending more and more on Infra every year. There is visible change all across the country in just 9 years. This will continue and snowball.
第6点:印度需要中国材料来制造产品
这位博主对此事的观察是正确的——印度从中国进口了很多东西来制造最终产品。
但他的预测是错误的。印度不会永远进口中国材料。印度的本土制造比例最终会上升。
中国也不是一开始就能制造100%纯国产的商品。直到今天它在一些领域仍然不能做到这一点，
第7点:印度的基础设施问题
这位博主表示，印度的头号问题是缺乏基础设施。
这一点很多人都同意。但这也正是他不应该做出悲观预测的原因，因为印度政府每年在基础设施上的支出越来越多。在短短9年的时间里，印度全国各地都发生了明显的变化。这种情况将继续下去，就像滚雪球一样。
The youtuber is making a correct observation of an event—India imports a lot of stuff to manufacture the final product.
But he's making an incorrect projection. That India will keep doing so.
Local manufacturing for components will pick up eventually. China hasn't started doing 100% local manufacturing from day 1. It still doesn't.
Point 7: India's Infrastructure Problems
The youtuber states India's number 1 problem is Lack of Infrastructure.
That's something many can agree on. That's precisely why he shouldn't make a pessimistic projection because Indian govt is spending more and more on Infra every year. There is visible change all across the country in just 9 years. This will continue and snowball.
第6点:印度需要中国材料来制造产品
这位博主对此事的观察是正确的——印度从中国进口了很多东西来制造最终产品。
但他的预测是错误的。印度不会永远进口中国材料。印度的本土制造比例最终会上升。
中国也不是一开始就能制造100%纯国产的商品。直到今天它在一些领域仍然不能做到这一点，
第7点:印度的基础设施问题
这位博主表示，印度的头号问题是缺乏基础设施。
这一点很多人都同意。但这也正是他不应该做出悲观预测的原因，因为印度政府每年在基础设施上的支出越来越多。在短短9年的时间里，印度全国各地都发生了明显的变化。这种情况将继续下去，就像滚雪球一样。
Note: The youtuber showed a normal road with lots of people, autos in the middle of a city while playing this part. Why? Aren't freight trains, large roads and ports more important? Poverty porn much?
The problems he raised are all ironically things that are already identified and are being improved.
India's express ways are 4,000 km compared to China's 160,000 km.
Again, this is an accurate observation of current state but is a bad, bad predictor of future. The youtuber only taken snaps and knows nothing of trajectory.
India's expressways were barely 1,000 on 2014. By end of 2024, they're going to hit 5,000. 5X in 10 years.
And two more factors to keep in mind:
1. India's land area is nearly 3 times smaller than China's.
2. China doesn't built for the sake of demand, it has long passed that point. It now builds for the sake of economy.
注意:这位博主在视频中故意插入一段画面，展示印度充斥着行人和车辆的拥挤道路。为什么？是印度的货运列车、大型公路和港口不需要展示吗?还是博主想靠展示印度的贫穷画面来吸引讨好视频受众?
具有讽刺意味的是，他提出的问题，都是印度已经发现并正在改进的问题。
他说印度的高速公路是4000公里，而中国的高速公路是16万公里。
这一观察并没有错，但他对印度未来的预测却很糟糕。他只知道对比当前数据，却对未来增长趋势一无所知。
2014年，印度的高速公路仅有1000条。到2024年底，印度的高速公路已经达到5000条。10年内增长5倍。
还有两个因素需要记住:
1. 印度的土地面积只有中国的三分之一。
2. 中国不是为了满足需求而建设的，它的建设早就超过了需求。中国现在是为了拉动经济而建设。
The problems he raised are all ironically things that are already identified and are being improved.
India's express ways are 4,000 km compared to China's 160,000 km.
Again, this is an accurate observation of current state but is a bad, bad predictor of future. The youtuber only taken snaps and knows nothing of trajectory.
India's expressways were barely 1,000 on 2014. By end of 2024, they're going to hit 5,000. 5X in 10 years.
And two more factors to keep in mind:
1. India's land area is nearly 3 times smaller than China's.
2. China doesn't built for the sake of demand, it has long passed that point. It now builds for the sake of economy.
注意:这位博主在视频中故意插入一段画面，展示印度充斥着行人和车辆的拥挤道路。为什么？是印度的货运列车、大型公路和港口不需要展示吗?还是博主想靠展示印度的贫穷画面来吸引讨好视频受众?
具有讽刺意味的是，他提出的问题，都是印度已经发现并正在改进的问题。
他说印度的高速公路是4000公里，而中国的高速公路是16万公里。
这一观察并没有错，但他对印度未来的预测却很糟糕。他只知道对比当前数据，却对未来增长趋势一无所知。
2014年，印度的高速公路仅有1000条。到2024年底，印度的高速公路已经达到5000条。10年内增长5倍。
还有两个因素需要记住:
1. 印度的土地面积只有中国的三分之一。
2. 中国不是为了满足需求而建设的，它的建设早就超过了需求。中国现在是为了拉动经济而建设。
Point 8: India's Bueracracy
It is on PMO's agenda to fix out this problem. They have acknowledged this and if the past records say something, they might already have a plan to implement in their third term.
Point 9: India's Labor Issues
Upskilling is a thing. Again, cheap internet basically gives both the govt and private sectors a massive lever in helping upskill the youth of country. Moreover, once the manufacturing does rise, they will get skilled for the jobs.
Point 10: Technology and R&D
Indian govt and people alike acknowledge this problem. GOI has started the baby steps in this direction by establishing National Research Foundation Center.
Also, an important point to be made here: When you don't have manufacturing, you don't have much to research for.
As manufacturing grows, local champions grow, they will invest for their own benefit and an ecosystem will be formed which will help everyone.
第8点:印度的官僚主义
这个问题已经提上了政府的议程。印度政府已经承认了这一点，如果从过去的记录来看，他们已经有了准备在第三任期实施的计划。
第9点:印度的劳工问题
印度劳工需要提高技能。而廉价的互联网教育为政府和私营部门提供了有力手段，帮助国内年轻人提高技能。此外，一旦制造业崛起，印度劳工就会掌握工作所需的技能。
第10点:技术和研发薄弱
印度政府和人民都承认这个问题。印度政府通过建立国家研究基金会，在这个方向上小步迈进。
此外，有一点原因很重要:当你没有制造业时，你就无法投入太多的研究项目。
随着印度制造业的发展，当地龙头企业的成长，他们将为自己的利益进行投资，形成一个有利于所有人的生态系统。
It is on PMO's agenda to fix out this problem. They have acknowledged this and if the past records say something, they might already have a plan to implement in their third term.
Point 9: India's Labor Issues
Upskilling is a thing. Again, cheap internet basically gives both the govt and private sectors a massive lever in helping upskill the youth of country. Moreover, once the manufacturing does rise, they will get skilled for the jobs.
Point 10: Technology and R&D
Indian govt and people alike acknowledge this problem. GOI has started the baby steps in this direction by establishing National Research Foundation Center.
Also, an important point to be made here: When you don't have manufacturing, you don't have much to research for.
As manufacturing grows, local champions grow, they will invest for their own benefit and an ecosystem will be formed which will help everyone.
第8点:印度的官僚主义
这个问题已经提上了政府的议程。印度政府已经承认了这一点，如果从过去的记录来看，他们已经有了准备在第三任期实施的计划。
第9点:印度的劳工问题
印度劳工需要提高技能。而廉价的互联网教育为政府和私营部门提供了有力手段，帮助国内年轻人提高技能。此外，一旦制造业崛起，印度劳工就会掌握工作所需的技能。
第10点:技术和研发薄弱
印度政府和人民都承认这个问题。印度政府通过建立国家研究基金会，在这个方向上小步迈进。
此外，有一点原因很重要:当你没有制造业时，你就无法投入太多的研究项目。
随着印度制造业的发展，当地龙头企业的成长，他们将为自己的利益进行投资，形成一个有利于所有人的生态系统。
Conclusion:
The blackpilling folks can blackpill. The ones without confidences can live without confidence. The ones who already accepted defeat can continue to demean India on all Social Media.
The people who can see the changes happening are optimistic and find even more drive to do better in their own lives.
Bharat has a lot of problems. But it also a lot of solutions to try solve those problems.
It won't happen overnight. We'll stumble on the way. Many policies might fail, but the few that succeed and succeed spectacularly, they'll definite the trajectory and build the future of our civilizational state.
结论:
悲观的人可以继续悲观。没有信心的人可以继续没有信心地生活。认为印度已经失败的人可以继续在所有社交媒体上贬低印度。
能看到变化正在发生的人则会感到乐观，并在自己的生活中找到变好的更大动力。
印度有很多问题。但它也有很多解决方案来解决这些问题。
成功不会一蹴而就。我们会在前进的道路上磕磕绊绊。许多政策可能会失败，但少数的政策会取得巨大成功，它们将明确我们文明国家的发展轨迹和未来。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The blackpilling folks can blackpill. The ones without confidences can live without confidence. The ones who already accepted defeat can continue to demean India on all Social Media.
The people who can see the changes happening are optimistic and find even more drive to do better in their own lives.
Bharat has a lot of problems. But it also a lot of solutions to try solve those problems.
It won't happen overnight. We'll stumble on the way. Many policies might fail, but the few that succeed and succeed spectacularly, they'll definite the trajectory and build the future of our civilizational state.
结论:
悲观的人可以继续悲观。没有信心的人可以继续没有信心地生活。认为印度已经失败的人可以继续在所有社交媒体上贬低印度。
能看到变化正在发生的人则会感到乐观，并在自己的生活中找到变好的更大动力。
印度有很多问题。但它也有很多解决方案来解决这些问题。
成功不会一蹴而就。我们会在前进的道路上磕磕绊绊。许多政策可能会失败，但少数的政策会取得巨大成功，它们将明确我们文明国家的发展轨迹和未来。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
评论翻译
another_armchair said:
Q. So why did they choose China and not some other country?
A. They chose China because（）
填空题
问:那他们为什么选择中国，而不是其他国家?
答:他们选择中国是因为（）
Shuturmurg
That's one of those CCP paid "white monkey" who spouts CCP propaganda. They have paid off many such "investment influencers" because Chinese coverage has become negative in mainstream business publications.
这个人是中国雇佣的“白皮猴子”之一，他的油管频道全是中国的宣传视频。因为欧美主流媒体对中国的报道非常负面，所以中国收买了许多这样的油管博主。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
That's one of those CCP paid "white monkey" who spouts CCP propaganda. They have paid off many such "investment influencers" because Chinese coverage has become negative in mainstream business publications.
这个人是中国雇佣的“白皮猴子”之一，他的油管频道全是中国的宣传视频。因为欧美主流媒体对中国的报道非常负面，所以中国收买了许多这样的油管博主。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Tsunami
Spot on
Comparing current China with India is not a correct way to make any projections. When china started becoming manufacturing hub it was no where near to developed western powers.
When people say India might replace China, no one is saying we can replace China in 2024. It's 10-15 years in future we are talking about.
And this idiot is comparing over built high speed rail network and expressway, which are mostly Non-productive investments and a huge problem china is facing, calling it a disadvantage India is simply stupid.
说的好。
拿现在的中国和印度进行比较，并不能得出正确的预测结果。当中国开始成为制造业中心时，它与发达的西方大国相距甚远。
当人们说印度可能取代中国时，不是说我们可以在2024年取代中国。我们谈论的是未来10-15年。
这个白痴拿中国过度修建的高铁网络和高速公路做比较，这些大多是非生产性投资，是中国未来要面临的一个巨大问题，称其为印度的劣势，真是愚蠢。
Spot on
Comparing current China with India is not a correct way to make any projections. When china started becoming manufacturing hub it was no where near to developed western powers.
When people say India might replace China, no one is saying we can replace China in 2024. It's 10-15 years in future we are talking about.
And this idiot is comparing over built high speed rail network and expressway, which are mostly Non-productive investments and a huge problem china is facing, calling it a disadvantage India is simply stupid.
说的好。
拿现在的中国和印度进行比较，并不能得出正确的预测结果。当中国开始成为制造业中心时，它与发达的西方大国相距甚远。
当人们说印度可能取代中国时，不是说我们可以在2024年取代中国。我们谈论的是未来10-15年。
这个白痴拿中国过度修建的高铁网络和高速公路做比较，这些大多是非生产性投资，是中国未来要面临的一个巨大问题，称其为印度的劣势，真是愚蠢。
Nongaddarliberal
Westerners are intentionally bi-polar regarding India. They swing from "India has no future, it'll collapse" to "India is the future economic superpower, it'll overtake China", even though India itself has claimed no such thing, and we simply maintain that we will have good growth and a large economy.
The effect is they create a straw man positive prediction for India, which they then disprove by saying "No, we were wrong about India's growth", creating a straw man negative argument against India.
They will not be able to constantly make these negative videos of India's future if they acknowledged that India's goal is to simply grow its economy and improve its peoples lives, while acquiring critical technology.
西方人对印度采取两极态度。他们在 "印度没有未来，它马上就要崩溃了 "和 "印度是未来的经济超级大国，它将超越中国"之间来回摇摆，尽管印度自己并没有这样声称，我们只是坚持认为我们将会拥有良好的增长和庞大的经济。
这样做的结果是，他们先为印度创造了一个夸张的积极预测，然后他们又说 "不，我们对印度增长的预测是错的"，然后推翻这个预测，再为印度创造一个夸张的悲观预测。
如果他们承认印度的目标仅仅是发展经济、改善人民生活，同时获取关键技术，他们就不会对印度的未来做出悲观预测。
Westerners are intentionally bi-polar regarding India. They swing from "India has no future, it'll collapse" to "India is the future economic superpower, it'll overtake China", even though India itself has claimed no such thing, and we simply maintain that we will have good growth and a large economy.
The effect is they create a straw man positive prediction for India, which they then disprove by saying "No, we were wrong about India's growth", creating a straw man negative argument against India.
They will not be able to constantly make these negative videos of India's future if they acknowledged that India's goal is to simply grow its economy and improve its peoples lives, while acquiring critical technology.
西方人对印度采取两极态度。他们在 "印度没有未来，它马上就要崩溃了 "和 "印度是未来的经济超级大国，它将超越中国"之间来回摇摆，尽管印度自己并没有这样声称，我们只是坚持认为我们将会拥有良好的增长和庞大的经济。
这样做的结果是，他们先为印度创造了一个夸张的积极预测，然后他们又说 "不，我们对印度增长的预测是错的"，然后推翻这个预测，再为印度创造一个夸张的悲观预测。
如果他们承认印度的目标仅仅是发展经济、改善人民生活，同时获取关键技术，他们就不会对印度的未来做出悲观预测。
Falcons layers
That isn't the topic, and sure we don't aim to replace them. But if we look at comparative advantages, china has the upper hand. Our manufacturing output is very low and barely growing significantly, while china's exports of just goods alone is more than our GDP.
这不是重点，当然我们的目标也不是取代中国。如果比较双方优势，明显是中国占了上风。我们的制造业产出很低，而且几乎没有大幅增长，而中国仅货物出口就超过了我们的 GDP。
That isn't the topic, and sure we don't aim to replace them. But if we look at comparative advantages, china has the upper hand. Our manufacturing output is very low and barely growing significantly, while china's exports of just goods alone is more than our GDP.
这不是重点，当然我们的目标也不是取代中国。如果比较双方优势，明显是中国占了上风。我们的制造业产出很低，而且几乎没有大幅增长，而中国仅货物出口就超过了我们的 GDP。
Nongaddarliberal
Sure. I've just been seeing all these "India is not the next superpower" videos over the past 3 years Not arguing about our manufacturing disadvantages against China.
你说得对，我只是在过去三年里，不断看到 "印度不是下一个超级大国 "之类的视频，有感而发而已。我同意我们在制造业方面对中国存在劣势。
Sure. I've just been seeing all these "India is not the next superpower" videos over the past 3 years Not arguing about our manufacturing disadvantages against China.
你说得对，我只是在过去三年里，不断看到 "印度不是下一个超级大国 "之类的视频，有感而发而已。我同意我们在制造业方面对中国存在劣势。
another_armchair
Forget standing up to China economically, we'll start making Sri Lanka and other neighbors look good.
忘了在经济上对抗中国的想法吧，在我们的衬托下，斯里兰卡和其他邻国都显得发展的不错。
Forget standing up to China economically, we'll start making Sri Lanka and other neighbors look good.
忘了在经济上对抗中国的想法吧，在我们的衬托下，斯里兰卡和其他邻国都显得发展的不错。
AngryIndian
Do you think anybody in India cares about that? The Netas and Babus live in a world of their own. Their children are more often well settled in the US and West with fancy Ivy league education.
Look at the situation of Rural schools,I find it hard to differentiate between them and schools of Congo and Somalia.No wonder most Indians drop off and never go to college and remain unskilled and end up in low paying and unproductive jobs.
你觉得印度普通人会关心这个问题吗?上层权贵老爷生活在他们自己的世界里。他们的孩子通常在美国和西方生活，接受名牌大学常春藤盟校的教育。
看看印度农村学校的状况，我发现很难将它们与刚果和索马里的学校区分开来。难怪大多数印度人辍学，从未上过大学，没有劳动技能，最终从事低薪和非生产性工作。
Do you think anybody in India cares about that? The Netas and Babus live in a world of their own. Their children are more often well settled in the US and West with fancy Ivy league education.
Look at the situation of Rural schools,I find it hard to differentiate between them and schools of Congo and Somalia.No wonder most Indians drop off and never go to college and remain unskilled and end up in low paying and unproductive jobs.
你觉得印度普通人会关心这个问题吗?上层权贵老爷生活在他们自己的世界里。他们的孩子通常在美国和西方生活，接受名牌大学常春藤盟校的教育。
看看印度农村学校的状况，我发现很难将它们与刚果和索马里的学校区分开来。难怪大多数印度人辍学，从未上过大学，没有劳动技能，最终从事低薪和非生产性工作。
omaebakabaka
Because consumption based GDP has its own pitfalls without sufficient self sufficiency in key areas. When things get anti India mode, GDP will tumble. We need Chinese, Japanese and Korean level high tech and low tech manufacturing economy as part of that GDP growth. Look at our major exports, it doesn't reflect the manufacturing side that well yet. Brands of household name are a sign of strong economies
如果不能在关键领域实现自给自足，以消费为基础的 GDP 本身就存在隐患。一旦出现 "不利于印度的状况"，印度的GDP 就会下滑。我们需要中国、日本和韩国那样的高/低技术制造业作为拉动 GDP增长的引擎。看看我们的主要出口产品，反映出了印度制造业方面的糟糕状况。拥有家喻户晓的世界品牌是国家经济强劲的标志
Because consumption based GDP has its own pitfalls without sufficient self sufficiency in key areas. When things get anti India mode, GDP will tumble. We need Chinese, Japanese and Korean level high tech and low tech manufacturing economy as part of that GDP growth. Look at our major exports, it doesn't reflect the manufacturing side that well yet. Brands of household name are a sign of strong economies
如果不能在关键领域实现自给自足，以消费为基础的 GDP 本身就存在隐患。一旦出现 "不利于印度的状况"，印度的GDP 就会下滑。我们需要中国、日本和韩国那样的高/低技术制造业作为拉动 GDP增长的引擎。看看我们的主要出口产品，反映出了印度制造业方面的糟糕状况。拥有家喻户晓的世界品牌是国家经济强劲的标志
shade said:
lol ITA-1 killed any hope of domestic PCs making it big because of cheap imports, they started and continue to centralize PC manufacturing in China, India was not export competitive back then, it isn't export competitive today in spite of Tim Apple going all-in.
哈哈，由于世贸组织的ITA-1《信息技术协定》，廉价的进口商品冲击国内市场，扼杀了印度国产电脑做大的希望，印度以前没有出口竞争力，国际巨头把电脑产业集中在中国，尽管苹果已经全力扩大在印度的生产规模，但如今的印度没有出口竞争力。
lol ITA-1 killed any hope of domestic PCs making it big because of cheap imports, they started and continue to centralize PC manufacturing in China, India was not export competitive back then, it isn't export competitive today in spite of Tim Apple going all-in.
哈哈，由于世贸组织的ITA-1《信息技术协定》，廉价的进口商品冲击国内市场，扼杀了印度国产电脑做大的希望，印度以前没有出口竞争力，国际巨头把电脑产业集中在中国，尽管苹果已经全力扩大在印度的生产规模，但如今的印度没有出口竞争力。
another_armchair said:
Q. So why did they choose China and not some other country?
A. They chose China because（）
填空题
问:那他们为什么选择中国，而不是其他国家?
答:他们选择中国是因为（）
Shade
Literally the best country to do any manufacturing, cheap labour because there are like 1 billion of them and eventual large consumer market, no trade unxs bullshittery, bent over Govt( at the time ) willing to do anything and everything to attract manufacturing, said bent over Govt also has 100% control of the country and doesn't depend on 5 year election cycles on national or state levels, Courts are also Govt controlled unlike here, which means they can build world class infra for everything, I also heard that even in the 80s their vocational training game was much better than ours, so good supply of technicians, workers etc was available from the get-go
This is the "Chinese efficiency" the goras mastrubate about.
Baki ka we have fuck all, you have worker unx chimpouts, you have random MyStEriOuS fires happening at factories, you have meme infrastructure, rail, road, ports, electricity, water, waste management( where do all the effluents from PCB manufacturing go? in your lakes and rivers ofc, directly dumped ).
因为中国是世界上最适合从事制造业的国家，劳动力便宜，因为有 10 亿左右的劳动力和庞大的消费市场，没有工会，政府（当时）愿意做任何事情来吸引企业、 我还听说，即使在上世纪 80 年代，他们的职业培训也比我们强得多，因此从一开始就能提供充足的技术人员和工人等。
这就是西方津津乐道的 "中国效率"。
而我们什么都没有，我们的工会会提各种条件，我们的工厂经常发生"神秘 "火灾，我们的 基础设施、铁路、公路、港口、电力、水、废物管理都躺在备忘录中。（知道PCB（电路板）企业生产的废水排去了哪里吗？当然是直接排在了湖泊和河流里。）
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Literally the best country to do any manufacturing, cheap labour because there are like 1 billion of them and eventual large consumer market, no trade unxs bullshittery, bent over Govt( at the time ) willing to do anything and everything to attract manufacturing, said bent over Govt also has 100% control of the country and doesn't depend on 5 year election cycles on national or state levels, Courts are also Govt controlled unlike here, which means they can build world class infra for everything, I also heard that even in the 80s their vocational training game was much better than ours, so good supply of technicians, workers etc was available from the get-go
This is the "Chinese efficiency" the goras mastrubate about.
Baki ka we have fuck all, you have worker unx chimpouts, you have random MyStEriOuS fires happening at factories, you have meme infrastructure, rail, road, ports, electricity, water, waste management( where do all the effluents from PCB manufacturing go? in your lakes and rivers ofc, directly dumped ).
因为中国是世界上最适合从事制造业的国家，劳动力便宜，因为有 10 亿左右的劳动力和庞大的消费市场，没有工会，政府（当时）愿意做任何事情来吸引企业、 我还听说，即使在上世纪 80 年代，他们的职业培训也比我们强得多，因此从一开始就能提供充足的技术人员和工人等。
这就是西方津津乐道的 "中国效率"。
而我们什么都没有，我们的工会会提各种条件，我们的工厂经常发生"神秘 "火灾，我们的 基础设施、铁路、公路、港口、电力、水、废物管理都躺在备忘录中。（知道PCB（电路板）企业生产的废水排去了哪里吗？当然是直接排在了湖泊和河流里。）
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
RoaringTigerHiddenDragon
I really feel india is the wild card here. The faster india gets prosperous and a manufacturing center, the more the west can hammer Chinis. So, it is a 3 way game: the west-India-china with all others playing these big 3 markets. If india becomes prosperous rapidly, China is going to have a very tough time. Only by 2030 we will know.
我真的觉得印度是博弈的关键角色。印度越快繁荣并成为制造业中心，西方就越能打击中国。因此，这是一场三方博弈：西方-印度-中国，所有其他国家与这三大块市场博弈。如果印度迅速繁荣起来，中国的日子就不好过了。到 2030 年我们就能知道结果了。
I really feel india is the wild card here. The faster india gets prosperous and a manufacturing center, the more the west can hammer Chinis. So, it is a 3 way game: the west-India-china with all others playing these big 3 markets. If india becomes prosperous rapidly, China is going to have a very tough time. Only by 2030 we will know.
我真的觉得印度是博弈的关键角色。印度越快繁荣并成为制造业中心，西方就越能打击中国。因此，这是一场三方博弈：西方-印度-中国，所有其他国家与这三大块市场博弈。如果印度迅速繁荣起来，中国的日子就不好过了。到 2030 年我们就能知道结果了。
Nongaddarliberal
India has not even begun its manufacturing journey. Forget China, we seem to be installing fewer industrial robots than Singapore.
印度的制造业之旅甚至还没有开始。
忘了中国吧，我们安装的工业机器人似乎比新加坡还少。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
India has not even begun its manufacturing journey. Forget China, we seem to be installing fewer industrial robots than Singapore.
印度的制造业之旅甚至还没有开始。
忘了中国吧，我们安装的工业机器人似乎比新加坡还少。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
angryIndian
This is the thing people fail to understand, without improving primary education, India will always remain a laggard and a backbencher country.
If an 18-year-old cannot do class -3 level math and cannot determine things as simple as time or read a simple sentence correctly,then there is something very wrong with the country.
Most of these rural children will never go to college, probably drop off even before completing class 10, and then end up becoming casual laborers and a huge burden on the country's fiscal resources.
And Instead of a demographic dividend,we might end up with a massive demographic nightmare.
这是人们无法理解的，如果不改善初等教育，印度将永远是一个落后国家。
如果一个 18 岁的孩子连 3 年级的数学都不会做，连报时间这么简单的事情都说不对，也不能正确阅读一个简单的句子，那么这个国家绝对出大问题了。
印度农村孩子中的大多数永远无法上大学，甚至可能在 10 年级毕业前就辍学，最终沦为临时工，成为国家财政资源的巨大负担。
这与人口红利背道而驰的，带给印度的，可能是一场巨大的人口噩梦。
This is the thing people fail to understand, without improving primary education, India will always remain a laggard and a backbencher country.
If an 18-year-old cannot do class -3 level math and cannot determine things as simple as time or read a simple sentence correctly,then there is something very wrong with the country.
Most of these rural children will never go to college, probably drop off even before completing class 10, and then end up becoming casual laborers and a huge burden on the country's fiscal resources.
And Instead of a demographic dividend,we might end up with a massive demographic nightmare.
这是人们无法理解的，如果不改善初等教育，印度将永远是一个落后国家。
如果一个 18 岁的孩子连 3 年级的数学都不会做，连报时间这么简单的事情都说不对，也不能正确阅读一个简单的句子，那么这个国家绝对出大问题了。
印度农村孩子中的大多数永远无法上大学，甚至可能在 10 年级毕业前就辍学，最终沦为临时工，成为国家财政资源的巨大负担。
这与人口红利背道而驰的，带给印度的，可能是一场巨大的人口噩梦。
Suryavanshi
It will take three to four decades to fix this issue and that too Government has to give its all.
Does not look bright.
解决这个问题需要三、四十年的时间，政府必须全力以赴。
情况看起来并不乐观。
It will take three to four decades to fix this issue and that too Government has to give its all.
Does not look bright.
解决这个问题需要三、四十年的时间，政府必须全力以赴。
情况看起来并不乐观。
Thebakofbakchod
And what has this government done in 10 years to start fixing this? absolutely nothing. Government schools are as broken as they were decades back with shoddy infrastructure. Go and compare the quality and infrastructure of government schools in China and with us. You will see which country actually cares about its youth. Here is a interesting thought. Rural china had a similar issue 20 years back. Rural schools barely taught stuff and many could not spell their own names. They had a long campaign to shut down rural schools and consolidate students in larger schools in towns where they can standardise quality better. It seemed to have some initial issues but this is something India needs to do in rural areas/ Most village schools in India are of garbage quality and people are increasingly sending their kids to private/church run schools.
在过去的10年里，印度政府做了什么来解决这个问题?绝对没有。公立学校和几十年前一样破旧不堪，基础设施质量低劣。去比较一下中国和我们的公立学校的质量和基础设施。
你会看到哪个国家真正关心它的年轻人。20年前，中国农村也有类似的问题。农村学校几乎不教东西，许多人连自己的名字都不会拼。他们做了长期工作，关闭农村学校，并将学生整合到城镇的大型学校，这样他们可以更好地标准化教学。虽然其中也存在一些问题，但这正是印度需要在农村地区做的事情。印度大多数乡村学校的质量都很差，越来越多的人把孩子送到私立或教会学校。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
And what has this government done in 10 years to start fixing this? absolutely nothing. Government schools are as broken as they were decades back with shoddy infrastructure. Go and compare the quality and infrastructure of government schools in China and with us. You will see which country actually cares about its youth. Here is a interesting thought. Rural china had a similar issue 20 years back. Rural schools barely taught stuff and many could not spell their own names. They had a long campaign to shut down rural schools and consolidate students in larger schools in towns where they can standardise quality better. It seemed to have some initial issues but this is something India needs to do in rural areas/ Most village schools in India are of garbage quality and people are increasingly sending their kids to private/church run schools.
在过去的10年里，印度政府做了什么来解决这个问题?绝对没有。公立学校和几十年前一样破旧不堪，基础设施质量低劣。去比较一下中国和我们的公立学校的质量和基础设施。
你会看到哪个国家真正关心它的年轻人。20年前，中国农村也有类似的问题。农村学校几乎不教东西，许多人连自己的名字都不会拼。他们做了长期工作，关闭农村学校，并将学生整合到城镇的大型学校，这样他们可以更好地标准化教学。虽然其中也存在一些问题，但这正是印度需要在农村地区做的事情。印度大多数乡村学校的质量都很差，越来越多的人把孩子送到私立或教会学校。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
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