油管博主称印度无法成为下一个中国，引发印度网友讨论
正文翻译
Bharatiya
Versus China:
We are currently behind them in Infrastructure and of course Manufacturing Base. But we are playing catch up in Infrastructure.
Why be so down trodden about Samsung setting up a factory here, even if it's the most basic assembly? Do you expect them to invest billions without doing a trial run?
Instead of comparing with China today, see China's trajectory. It took time for China to build the manufacturing base. The growth in the first phases had been slow. And then, once a threshold is passed, it accelerated.
We're in that hard phase now.
与中国相比：
我们目前在基础设施方面确实落后于他们，当然制造业也落后。但我们正在迎头赶上。
三星已经开始在印度建厂，哪怕只是最基本的组装厂，也没必要如此唱衰印度吧？难道你指望外资不试运行就立刻投资数十亿美元？
与其与今天的中国比较，不如看看中国的发展轨迹。中国建立制造业也不是一蹴而就的。第一阶段增长缓慢。然后，一旦迈过门槛，就会加速增长。
我们现在正处于这个艰难的第一阶段。
That video on Why India Is Not China is more blackpilling than an economic analysis. Having problems doesn't mean you aren't going to win—India today has been willing to solve the problems.
The guy presenting the video is misreading current problems to be unsolvable at best and is deliberately dencouncing India's potential at worst.
Point 1: Size of China's manufacturing and Point 2: India neglected manufacturing:
That's why we are playing catch up now and trying to figure out. This is a work in progress. There are several big obstacles to be tackled here and they will be tackled post-election.
“为什么印度不能成为中国”，这个视频与其说是经济分析，不如说是刻意贬低。存在问题并不意味着你不会赢——何况当下的印度愿意解决问题。
制作视频的人，往好里说，是误认为印度当前的问题无法解决，往坏里说，是故意贬低印度的潜力。
他列举了十点理由，我们来逐条分析：
第一点:中国制造业的规模庞大。
第二点:印度忽视制造业。
印度现在正在努力追赶建立自己的制造业。这里有几个大的障碍需要解决，这些障碍将在选举后得到解决。
Point 3: China dominates traditional manufacturing:
Steel, Cement are the examples he gave.
While stating "These are two industries vital for future economic growth."
Everything needs to be taken in context. Here, it is certainly inappropriate. China has gone down the road of overbuilding.
Its constructions are not in response to demand, do not consider sustainability. China builds for the sake of building—to keep the economy going. They see Infrastructure as another engine of economy—far too much for their good.
Now they've put themselves in a position that they CANNOT stop the scale of their buildings. Even though the demand has already diminished, the production has not.
If they really try, tens of millions will be unemployed and big companies will be thrown into chaos. A chain reaction will hit their economy. The real estate housing crisis is only a part of this bigger bubble.
India needs to scale up infrastructure and in doing so, pull up its national steel and cement champions. This is not an indicator for why India is not next China. It's a ridiculous point.
第三点:中国的传统制造业非常强势。
他以钢铁，水泥举例，说:“这两个行业对未来经济增长至关重要。”
然而在当前的中国，这个例子是不合适的。因为中国已经走上了过度建设的道路。
它的建设不符合需求，不考虑可持续性。中国为了建设而建设——为了保持经济的发展。他们将建造基础设施视为拉动经济增长的引擎——远远超出了他们的需求。
现在，他们已经陷入了建筑规模不断扩大无法停止的境地。尽管需求已经减少，但产量并未减少。
如果他们继续下去，数千万人将失业，大公司将陷入混乱。连锁反应将打击他们的经济。房地产危机只是更大泡沫的一部分。
印度需要扩大基础设施规模，并在此过程中重振本国钢铁和水泥龙头企业。但规模不如中国并不能说明印度不能成为下一个中国。这是一个荒谬的观点。
Point 4: China's share of global exports
Investments were made post 1990s that continue to bear fruit. China has made the right call and empowered its MSMEs. Hence the situation.
India is taking steps to empower its MSMEs. With the steps currently being taken, it is rational to assume our share of global exports will start rising.
Point 5: The Chinese Ecosystem
Took time to be built. India is in its nascent state of manufacturing. Indian ecosystem will also be built and it will take time, but it will be built faster than Chinese ecosystem, no doubt.
第四点:中国在全球出口中的份额占比高
我承认，中国在20世纪90年代后进行的投资如今获得了回报，中国做出了正确的选择，扶持中小微企业，因此有了今天的地位。
而印度正在采取措施扶持其中小微企业。鉴于印度目前正在采取的措施，我们有理由认为，印度在全球出口中所占的份额将开始上升。
第5点:中国生态产业链较为全面
印度需要时间来打造自己的生态产业链。印度正处于制造业的起步阶段。印度的生态产业链也会逐步建立起来，这需要时间，但毫无疑问，它建立的速度将比同时期的中国更快。
India is 10-15 Years Behind China
Of course. We wouldn't be working to catch up with them otherwise.
The youtuber points out the near stagnation of manufacturing as % of GDP. It's a correct observation for the past. But to project future off it is disingenuous without a proper study into why the stagnation even happened.
If economics is as simple as looking at a bunch of numbers and predicting future, economists would all be millionaires.
The stagnation had multiple reasons—most prominent being: lack of Infrastructure, looming banking crisis.
我个人认为印度落后中国10-15年
这没什么好否认的，否则我们就不会努力追赶他们了。
这位油管博主指出，印度制造业占GDP的比例接近停滞。这是对过去的正确观察。但如果不好好研究为什么会出现这种停滞，就以此来预测未来，那就大错特错了。
如果经济学家只靠一堆数字就能简单预测未来，那么每个经济学家都会成为百万富翁。
印度制造业停滞有多种原因，其中最突出的原因是：缺乏基础设施，和亟待解决的银行业问题。
Point 6: India needs Chinese materials to manufacture
The youtuber is making a correct observation of an event—India imports a lot of stuff to manufacture the final product.
But he's making an incorrect projection. That India will keep doing so.
Local manufacturing for components will pick up eventually. China hasn't started doing 100% local manufacturing from day 1. It still doesn't.
Point 7: India's Infrastructure Problems
The youtuber states India's number 1 problem is Lack of Infrastructure.
That's something many can agree on. That's precisely why he shouldn't make a pessimistic projection because Indian govt is spending more and more on Infra every year. There is visible change all across the country in just 9 years. This will continue and snowball.
第6点:印度需要中国材料来制造产品
这位博主对此事的观察是正确的——印度从中国进口了很多东西来制造最终产品。
但他的预测是错误的。印度不会永远进口中国材料。印度的本土制造比例最终会上升。
中国也不是一开始就能制造100%纯国产的商品。直到今天它在一些领域仍然不能做到这一点，
第7点:印度的基础设施问题
这位博主表示，印度的头号问题是缺乏基础设施。
这一点很多人都同意。但这也正是他不应该做出悲观预测的原因，因为印度政府每年在基础设施上的支出越来越多。在短短9年的时间里，印度全国各地都发生了明显的变化。这种情况将继续下去，就像滚雪球一样。
Note: The youtuber showed a normal road with lots of people, autos in the middle of a city while playing this part. Why? Aren't freight trains, large roads and ports more important? Poverty porn much?
The problems he raised are all ironically things that are already identified and are being improved.
India's express ways are 4,000 km compared to China's 160,000 km.
Again, this is an accurate observation of current state but is a bad, bad predictor of future. The youtuber only taken snaps and knows nothing of trajectory.
India's expressways were barely 1,000 on 2014. By end of 2024, they're going to hit 5,000. 5X in 10 years.
And two more factors to keep in mind:
1. India's land area is nearly 3 times smaller than China's.
2. China doesn't built for the sake of demand, it has long passed that point. It now builds for the sake of economy.
注意:这位博主在视频中故意插入一段画面，展示印度充斥着行人和车辆的拥挤道路。为什么？是印度的货运列车、大型公路和港口不需要展示吗?还是博主想靠展示印度的贫穷画面来吸引讨好视频受众?
具有讽刺意味的是，他提出的问题，都是印度已经发现并正在改进的问题。
他说印度的高速公路是4000公里，而中国的高速公路是16万公里。
这一观察并没有错，但他对印度未来的预测却很糟糕。他只知道对比当前数据，却对未来增长趋势一无所知。
2014年，印度的高速公路仅有1000条。到2024年底，印度的高速公路已经达到5000条。10年内增长5倍。
还有两个因素需要记住:
1. 印度的土地面积只有中国的三分之一。
2. 中国不是为了满足需求而建设的，它的建设早就超过了需求。中国现在是为了拉动经济而建设。
Point 8: India's Bueracracy
It is on PMO's agenda to fix out this problem. They have acknowledged this and if the past records say something, they might already have a plan to implement in their third term.
Point 9: India's Labor Issues
Upskilling is a thing. Again, cheap internet basically gives both the govt and private sectors a massive lever in helping upskill the youth of country. Moreover, once the manufacturing does rise, they will get skilled for the jobs.
Point 10: Technology and R&D
Indian govt and people alike acknowledge this problem. GOI has started the baby steps in this direction by establishing National Research Foundation Center.
Also, an important point to be made here: When you don't have manufacturing, you don't have much to research for.
As manufacturing grows, local champions grow, they will invest for their own benefit and an ecosystem will be formed which will help everyone.
第8点:印度的官僚主义
这个问题已经提上了政府的议程。印度政府已经承认了这一点，如果从过去的记录来看，他们已经有了准备在第三任期实施的计划。
第9点:印度的劳工问题
印度劳工需要提高技能。而廉价的互联网教育为政府和私营部门提供了有力手段，帮助国内年轻人提高技能。此外，一旦制造业崛起，印度劳工就会掌握工作所需的技能。
第10点:技术和研发薄弱
印度政府和人民都承认这个问题。印度政府通过建立国家研究基金会，在这个方向上小步迈进。
此外，有一点原因很重要:当你没有制造业时，你就无法投入太多的研究项目。
随着印度制造业的发展，当地龙头企业的成长，他们将为自己的利益进行投资，形成一个有利于所有人的生态系统。
Conclusion:
The blackpilling folks can blackpill. The ones without confidences can live without confidence. The ones who already accepted defeat can continue to demean India on all Social Media.
The people who can see the changes happening are optimistic and find even more drive to do better in their own lives.
Bharat has a lot of problems. But it also a lot of solutions to try solve those problems.
It won't happen overnight. We'll stumble on the way. Many policies might fail, but the few that succeed and succeed spectacularly, they'll definite the trajectory and build the future of our civilizational state.
结论:
悲观的人可以继续悲观。没有信心的人可以继续没有信心地生活。认为印度已经失败的人可以继续在所有社交媒体上贬低印度。
能看到变化正在发生的人则会感到乐观，并在自己的生活中找到变好的更大动力。
印度有很多问题。但它也有很多解决方案来解决这些问题。
成功不会一蹴而就。我们会在前进的道路上磕磕绊绊。许多政策可能会失败，但少数的政策会取得巨大成功，它们将明确我们文明国家的发展轨迹和未来。
Bharatiya
Versus China:
We are currently behind them in Infrastructure and of course Manufacturing Base. But we are playing catch up in Infrastructure.
Why be so down trodden about Samsung setting up a factory here, even if it's the most basic assembly? Do you expect them to invest billions without doing a trial run?
Instead of comparing with China today, see China's trajectory. It took time for China to build the manufacturing base. The growth in the first phases had been slow. And then, once a threshold is passed, it accelerated.
We're in that hard phase now.
与中国相比：
我们目前在基础设施方面确实落后于他们，当然制造业也落后。但我们正在迎头赶上。
三星已经开始在印度建厂，哪怕只是最基本的组装厂，也没必要如此唱衰印度吧？难道你指望外资不试运行就立刻投资数十亿美元？
与其与今天的中国比较，不如看看中国的发展轨迹。中国建立制造业也不是一蹴而就的。第一阶段增长缓慢。然后，一旦迈过门槛，就会加速增长。
我们现在正处于这个艰难的第一阶段。
That video on Why India Is Not China is more blackpilling than an economic analysis. Having problems doesn't mean you aren't going to win—India today has been willing to solve the problems.
The guy presenting the video is misreading current problems to be unsolvable at best and is deliberately dencouncing India's potential at worst.
Point 1: Size of China's manufacturing and Point 2: India neglected manufacturing:
That's why we are playing catch up now and trying to figure out. This is a work in progress. There are several big obstacles to be tackled here and they will be tackled post-election.
“为什么印度不能成为中国”，这个视频与其说是经济分析，不如说是刻意贬低。存在问题并不意味着你不会赢——何况当下的印度愿意解决问题。
制作视频的人，往好里说，是误认为印度当前的问题无法解决，往坏里说，是故意贬低印度的潜力。
他列举了十点理由，我们来逐条分析：
第一点:中国制造业的规模庞大。
第二点:印度忽视制造业。
印度现在正在努力追赶建立自己的制造业。这里有几个大的障碍需要解决，这些障碍将在选举后得到解决。
Point 3: China dominates traditional manufacturing:
Steel, Cement are the examples he gave.
While stating "These are two industries vital for future economic growth."
Everything needs to be taken in context. Here, it is certainly inappropriate. China has gone down the road of overbuilding.
Its constructions are not in response to demand, do not consider sustainability. China builds for the sake of building—to keep the economy going. They see Infrastructure as another engine of economy—far too much for their good.
Now they've put themselves in a position that they CANNOT stop the scale of their buildings. Even though the demand has already diminished, the production has not.
If they really try, tens of millions will be unemployed and big companies will be thrown into chaos. A chain reaction will hit their economy. The real estate housing crisis is only a part of this bigger bubble.
India needs to scale up infrastructure and in doing so, pull up its national steel and cement champions. This is not an indicator for why India is not next China. It's a ridiculous point.
第三点:中国的传统制造业非常强势。
他以钢铁，水泥举例，说:“这两个行业对未来经济增长至关重要。”
然而在当前的中国，这个例子是不合适的。因为中国已经走上了过度建设的道路。
它的建设不符合需求，不考虑可持续性。中国为了建设而建设——为了保持经济的发展。他们将建造基础设施视为拉动经济增长的引擎——远远超出了他们的需求。
现在，他们已经陷入了建筑规模不断扩大无法停止的境地。尽管需求已经减少，但产量并未减少。
如果他们继续下去，数千万人将失业，大公司将陷入混乱。连锁反应将打击他们的经济。房地产危机只是更大泡沫的一部分。
印度需要扩大基础设施规模，并在此过程中重振本国钢铁和水泥龙头企业。但规模不如中国并不能说明印度不能成为下一个中国。这是一个荒谬的观点。
Point 4: China's share of global exports
Investments were made post 1990s that continue to bear fruit. China has made the right call and empowered its MSMEs. Hence the situation.
India is taking steps to empower its MSMEs. With the steps currently being taken, it is rational to assume our share of global exports will start rising.
Point 5: The Chinese Ecosystem
Took time to be built. India is in its nascent state of manufacturing. Indian ecosystem will also be built and it will take time, but it will be built faster than Chinese ecosystem, no doubt.
第四点:中国在全球出口中的份额占比高
我承认，中国在20世纪90年代后进行的投资如今获得了回报，中国做出了正确的选择，扶持中小微企业，因此有了今天的地位。
而印度正在采取措施扶持其中小微企业。鉴于印度目前正在采取的措施，我们有理由认为，印度在全球出口中所占的份额将开始上升。
第5点:中国生态产业链较为全面
印度需要时间来打造自己的生态产业链。印度正处于制造业的起步阶段。印度的生态产业链也会逐步建立起来，这需要时间，但毫无疑问，它建立的速度将比同时期的中国更快。
India is 10-15 Years Behind China
Of course. We wouldn't be working to catch up with them otherwise.
The youtuber points out the near stagnation of manufacturing as % of GDP. It's a correct observation for the past. But to project future off it is disingenuous without a proper study into why the stagnation even happened.
If economics is as simple as looking at a bunch of numbers and predicting future, economists would all be millionaires.
The stagnation had multiple reasons—most prominent being: lack of Infrastructure, looming banking crisis.
我个人认为印度落后中国10-15年
这没什么好否认的，否则我们就不会努力追赶他们了。
这位油管博主指出，印度制造业占GDP的比例接近停滞。这是对过去的正确观察。但如果不好好研究为什么会出现这种停滞，就以此来预测未来，那就大错特错了。
如果经济学家只靠一堆数字就能简单预测未来，那么每个经济学家都会成为百万富翁。
印度制造业停滞有多种原因，其中最突出的原因是：缺乏基础设施，和亟待解决的银行业问题。
Point 6: India needs Chinese materials to manufacture
The youtuber is making a correct observation of an event—India imports a lot of stuff to manufacture the final product.
But he's making an incorrect projection. That India will keep doing so.
Local manufacturing for components will pick up eventually. China hasn't started doing 100% local manufacturing from day 1. It still doesn't.
Point 7: India's Infrastructure Problems
The youtuber states India's number 1 problem is Lack of Infrastructure.
That's something many can agree on. That's precisely why he shouldn't make a pessimistic projection because Indian govt is spending more and more on Infra every year. There is visible change all across the country in just 9 years. This will continue and snowball.
第6点:印度需要中国材料来制造产品
这位博主对此事的观察是正确的——印度从中国进口了很多东西来制造最终产品。
但他的预测是错误的。印度不会永远进口中国材料。印度的本土制造比例最终会上升。
中国也不是一开始就能制造100%纯国产的商品。直到今天它在一些领域仍然不能做到这一点，
第7点:印度的基础设施问题
这位博主表示，印度的头号问题是缺乏基础设施。
这一点很多人都同意。但这也正是他不应该做出悲观预测的原因，因为印度政府每年在基础设施上的支出越来越多。在短短9年的时间里，印度全国各地都发生了明显的变化。这种情况将继续下去，就像滚雪球一样。
Note: The youtuber showed a normal road with lots of people, autos in the middle of a city while playing this part. Why? Aren't freight trains, large roads and ports more important? Poverty porn much?
The problems he raised are all ironically things that are already identified and are being improved.
India's express ways are 4,000 km compared to China's 160,000 km.
Again, this is an accurate observation of current state but is a bad, bad predictor of future. The youtuber only taken snaps and knows nothing of trajectory.
India's expressways were barely 1,000 on 2014. By end of 2024, they're going to hit 5,000. 5X in 10 years.
And two more factors to keep in mind:
1. India's land area is nearly 3 times smaller than China's.
2. China doesn't built for the sake of demand, it has long passed that point. It now builds for the sake of economy.
注意:这位博主在视频中故意插入一段画面，展示印度充斥着行人和车辆的拥挤道路。为什么？是印度的货运列车、大型公路和港口不需要展示吗?还是博主想靠展示印度的贫穷画面来吸引讨好视频受众?
具有讽刺意味的是，他提出的问题，都是印度已经发现并正在改进的问题。
他说印度的高速公路是4000公里，而中国的高速公路是16万公里。
这一观察并没有错，但他对印度未来的预测却很糟糕。他只知道对比当前数据，却对未来增长趋势一无所知。
2014年，印度的高速公路仅有1000条。到2024年底，印度的高速公路已经达到5000条。10年内增长5倍。
还有两个因素需要记住:
1. 印度的土地面积只有中国的三分之一。
2. 中国不是为了满足需求而建设的，它的建设早就超过了需求。中国现在是为了拉动经济而建设。
Point 8: India's Bueracracy
It is on PMO's agenda to fix out this problem. They have acknowledged this and if the past records say something, they might already have a plan to implement in their third term.
Point 9: India's Labor Issues
Upskilling is a thing. Again, cheap internet basically gives both the govt and private sectors a massive lever in helping upskill the youth of country. Moreover, once the manufacturing does rise, they will get skilled for the jobs.
Point 10: Technology and R&D
Indian govt and people alike acknowledge this problem. GOI has started the baby steps in this direction by establishing National Research Foundation Center.
Also, an important point to be made here: When you don't have manufacturing, you don't have much to research for.
As manufacturing grows, local champions grow, they will invest for their own benefit and an ecosystem will be formed which will help everyone.
第8点:印度的官僚主义
这个问题已经提上了政府的议程。印度政府已经承认了这一点，如果从过去的记录来看，他们已经有了准备在第三任期实施的计划。
第9点:印度的劳工问题
印度劳工需要提高技能。而廉价的互联网教育为政府和私营部门提供了有力手段，帮助国内年轻人提高技能。此外，一旦制造业崛起，印度劳工就会掌握工作所需的技能。
第10点:技术和研发薄弱
印度政府和人民都承认这个问题。印度政府通过建立国家研究基金会，在这个方向上小步迈进。
此外，有一点原因很重要:当你没有制造业时，你就无法投入太多的研究项目。
随着印度制造业的发展，当地龙头企业的成长，他们将为自己的利益进行投资，形成一个有利于所有人的生态系统。
Conclusion:
The blackpilling folks can blackpill. The ones without confidences can live without confidence. The ones who already accepted defeat can continue to demean India on all Social Media.
The people who can see the changes happening are optimistic and find even more drive to do better in their own lives.
Bharat has a lot of problems. But it also a lot of solutions to try solve those problems.
It won't happen overnight. We'll stumble on the way. Many policies might fail, but the few that succeed and succeed spectacularly, they'll definite the trajectory and build the future of our civilizational state.
结论:
悲观的人可以继续悲观。没有信心的人可以继续没有信心地生活。认为印度已经失败的人可以继续在所有社交媒体上贬低印度。
能看到变化正在发生的人则会感到乐观，并在自己的生活中找到变好的更大动力。
印度有很多问题。但它也有很多解决方案来解决这些问题。
成功不会一蹴而就。我们会在前进的道路上磕磕绊绊。许多政策可能会失败，但少数的政策会取得巨大成功，它们将明确我们文明国家的发展轨迹和未来。
评论翻译
Bharatiya
Versus China:
We are currently behind them in Infrastructure and of course Manufacturing Base. But we are playing catch up in Infrastructure.
Why be so down trodden about Samsung setting up a factory here, even if it's the most basic assembly? Do you expect them to invest billions without doing a trial run?
Instead of comparing with China today, see China's trajectory. It took time for China to build the manufacturing base. The growth in the first phases had been slow. And then, once a threshold is passed, it accelerated.
We're in that hard phase now.
与中国相比：
我们目前在基础设施方面确实落后于他们，当然制造业也落后。但我们正在迎头赶上。
三星已经开始在印度建厂，哪怕只是最基本的组装厂，也没必要如此唱衰印度吧？难道你指望外资不试运行就立刻投资数十亿美元？
与其与今天的中国比较，不如看看中国的发展轨迹。中国建立制造业也不是一蹴而就的。第一阶段增长缓慢。然后，一旦迈过门槛，就会加速增长。
我们现在正处于这个艰难的第一阶段。
That video on Why India Is Not China is more blackpilling than an economic analysis. Having problems doesn't mean you aren't going to win—India today has been willing to solve the problems.
The guy presenting the video is misreading current problems to be unsolvable at best and is deliberately dencouncing India's potential at worst.
Point 1: Size of China's manufacturing and Point 2: India neglected manufacturing:
That's why we are playing catch up now and trying to figure out. This is a work in progress. There are several big obstacles to be tackled here and they will be tackled post-election.
“为什么印度不能成为中国”，这个视频与其说是经济分析，不如说是刻意贬低。存在问题并不意味着你不会赢——何况当下的印度愿意解决问题。
制作视频的人，往好里说，是误认为印度当前的问题无法解决，往坏里说，是故意贬低印度的潜力。
他列举了十点理由，我们来逐条分析：
第一点:中国制造业的规模庞大。
第二点:印度忽视制造业。
印度现在正在努力追赶建立自己的制造业。这里有几个大的障碍需要解决，这些障碍将在选举后得到解决。
Point 3: China dominates traditional manufacturing:
Steel, Cement are the examples he gave.
While stating "These are two industries vital for future economic growth."
Everything needs to be taken in context. Here, it is certainly inappropriate. China has gone down the road of overbuilding.
Its constructions are not in response to demand, do not consider sustainability. China builds for the sake of building—to keep the economy going. They see Infrastructure as another engine of economy—far too much for their good.
Now they've put themselves in a position that they CANNOT stop the scale of their buildings. Even though the demand has already diminished, the production has not.
If they really try, tens of millions will be unemployed and big companies will be thrown into chaos. A chain reaction will hit their economy. The real estate housing crisis is only a part of this bigger bubble.
India needs to scale up infrastructure and in doing so, pull up its national steel and cement champions. This is not an indicator for why India is not next China. It's a ridiculous point.
第三点:中国的传统制造业非常强势。
他以钢铁，水泥举例，说:“这两个行业对未来经济增长至关重要。”
然而在当前的中国，这个例子是不合适的。因为中国已经走上了过度建设的道路。
它的建设不符合需求，不考虑可持续性。中国为了建设而建设——为了保持经济的发展。他们将建造基础设施视为拉动经济增长的引擎——远远超出了他们的需求。
现在，他们已经陷入了建筑规模不断扩大无法停止的境地。尽管需求已经减少，但产量并未减少。
如果他们继续下去，数千万人将失业，大公司将陷入混乱。连锁反应将打击他们的经济。房地产危机只是更大泡沫的一部分。
印度需要扩大基础设施规模，并在此过程中重振本国钢铁和水泥龙头企业。但规模不如中国并不能说明印度不能成为下一个中国。这是一个荒谬的观点。
Point 4: China's share of global exports
Investments were made post 1990s that continue to bear fruit. China has made the right call and empowered its MSMEs. Hence the situation.
India is taking steps to empower its MSMEs. With the steps currently being taken, it is rational to assume our share of global exports will start rising.
Point 5: The Chinese Ecosystem
Took time to be built. India is in its nascent state of manufacturing. Indian ecosystem will also be built and it will take time, but it will be built faster than Chinese ecosystem, no doubt.
第四点:中国在全球出口中的份额占比高
我承认，中国在20世纪90年代后进行的投资如今获得了回报，中国做出了正确的选择，扶持中小微企业，因此有了今天的地位。
而印度正在采取措施扶持其中小微企业。鉴于印度目前正在采取的措施，我们有理由认为，印度在全球出口中所占的份额将开始上升。
第5点:中国生态产业链较为全面
印度需要时间来打造自己的生态产业链。印度正处于制造业的起步阶段。印度的生态产业链也会逐步建立起来，这需要时间，但毫无疑问，它建立的速度将比同时期的中国更快。
India is 10-15 Years Behind China
Of course. We wouldn't be working to catch up with them otherwise.
The youtuber points out the near stagnation of manufacturing as % of GDP. It's a correct observation for the past. But to project future off it is disingenuous without a proper study into why the stagnation even happened.
If economics is as simple as looking at a bunch of numbers and predicting future, economists would all be millionaires.
The stagnation had multiple reasons—most prominent being: lack of Infrastructure, looming banking crisis.
我个人认为印度落后中国10-15年
这没什么好否认的，否则我们就不会努力追赶他们了。
这位油管博主指出，印度制造业占GDP的比例接近停滞。这是对过去的正确观察。但如果不好好研究为什么会出现这种停滞，就以此来预测未来，那就大错特错了。
如果经济学家只靠一堆数字就能简单预测未来，那么每个经济学家都会成为百万富翁。
印度制造业停滞有多种原因，其中最突出的原因是：缺乏基础设施，和亟待解决的银行业问题。
Point 6: India needs Chinese materials to manufacture
The youtuber is making a correct observation of an event—India imports a lot of stuff to manufacture the final product.
But he's making an incorrect projection. That India will keep doing so.
Local manufacturing for components will pick up eventually. China hasn't started doing 100% local manufacturing from day 1. It still doesn't.
Point 7: India's Infrastructure Problems
The youtuber states India's number 1 problem is Lack of Infrastructure.
That's something many can agree on. That's precisely why he shouldn't make a pessimistic projection because Indian govt is spending more and more on Infra every year. There is visible change all across the country in just 9 years. This will continue and snowball.
第6点:印度需要中国材料来制造产品
这位博主对此事的观察是正确的——印度从中国进口了很多东西来制造最终产品。
但他的预测是错误的。印度不会永远进口中国材料。印度的本土制造比例最终会上升。
中国也不是一开始就能制造100%纯国产的商品。直到今天它在一些领域仍然不能做到这一点，
第7点:印度的基础设施问题
这位博主表示，印度的头号问题是缺乏基础设施。
这一点很多人都同意。但这也正是他不应该做出悲观预测的原因，因为印度政府每年在基础设施上的支出越来越多。在短短9年的时间里，印度全国各地都发生了明显的变化。这种情况将继续下去，就像滚雪球一样。
Note: The youtuber showed a normal road with lots of people, autos in the middle of a city while playing this part. Why? Aren't freight trains, large roads and ports more important? Poverty porn much?
The problems he raised are all ironically things that are already identified and are being improved.
India's express ways are 4,000 km compared to China's 160,000 km.
Again, this is an accurate observation of current state but is a bad, bad predictor of future. The youtuber only taken snaps and knows nothing of trajectory.
India's expressways were barely 1,000 on 2014. By end of 2024, they're going to hit 5,000. 5X in 10 years.
And two more factors to keep in mind:
1. India's land area is nearly 3 times smaller than China's.
2. China doesn't built for the sake of demand, it has long passed that point. It now builds for the sake of economy.
注意:这位博主在视频中故意插入一段画面，展示印度充斥着行人和车辆的拥挤道路。为什么？是印度的货运列车、大型公路和港口不需要展示吗?还是博主想靠展示印度的贫穷画面来吸引讨好视频受众?
具有讽刺意味的是，他提出的问题，都是印度已经发现并正在改进的问题。
他说印度的高速公路是4000公里，而中国的高速公路是16万公里。
这一观察并没有错，但他对印度未来的预测却很糟糕。他只知道对比当前数据，却对未来增长趋势一无所知。
2014年，印度的高速公路仅有1000条。到2024年底，印度的高速公路已经达到5000条。10年内增长5倍。
还有两个因素需要记住:
1. 印度的土地面积只有中国的三分之一。
2. 中国不是为了满足需求而建设的，它的建设早就超过了需求。中国现在是为了拉动经济而建设。
Point 8: India's Bueracracy
It is on PMO's agenda to fix out this problem. They have acknowledged this and if the past records say something, they might already have a plan to implement in their third term.
Point 9: India's Labor Issues
Upskilling is a thing. Again, cheap internet basically gives both the govt and private sectors a massive lever in helping upskill the youth of country. Moreover, once the manufacturing does rise, they will get skilled for the jobs.
Point 10: Technology and R&D
Indian govt and people alike acknowledge this problem. GOI has started the baby steps in this direction by establishing National Research Foundation Center.
Also, an important point to be made here: When you don't have manufacturing, you don't have much to research for.
As manufacturing grows, local champions grow, they will invest for their own benefit and an ecosystem will be formed which will help everyone.
第8点:印度的官僚主义
这个问题已经提上了政府的议程。印度政府已经承认了这一点，如果从过去的记录来看，他们已经有了准备在第三任期实施的计划。
第9点:印度的劳工问题
印度劳工需要提高技能。而廉价的互联网教育为政府和私营部门提供了有力手段，帮助国内年轻人提高技能。此外，一旦制造业崛起，印度劳工就会掌握工作所需的技能。
第10点:技术和研发薄弱
印度政府和人民都承认这个问题。印度政府通过建立国家研究基金会，在这个方向上小步迈进。
此外，有一点原因很重要:当你没有制造业时，你就无法投入太多的研究项目。
随着印度制造业的发展，当地龙头企业的成长，他们将为自己的利益进行投资，形成一个有利于所有人的生态系统。
Conclusion:
The blackpilling folks can blackpill. The ones without confidences can live without confidence. The ones who already accepted defeat can continue to demean India on all Social Media.
The people who can see the changes happening are optimistic and find even more drive to do better in their own lives.
Bharat has a lot of problems. But it also a lot of solutions to try solve those problems.
It won't happen overnight. We'll stumble on the way. Many policies might fail, but the few that succeed and succeed spectacularly, they'll definite the trajectory and build the future of our civilizational state.
结论:
悲观的人可以继续悲观。没有信心的人可以继续没有信心地生活。认为印度已经失败的人可以继续在所有社交媒体上贬低印度。
能看到变化正在发生的人则会感到乐观，并在自己的生活中找到变好的更大动力。
印度有很多问题。但它也有很多解决方案来解决这些问题。
成功不会一蹴而就。我们会在前进的道路上磕磕绊绊。许多政策可能会失败，但少数的政策会取得巨大成功，它们将明确我们文明国家的发展轨迹和未来。
Bharatiya
Versus China:
We are currently behind them in Infrastructure and of course Manufacturing Base. But we are playing catch up in Infrastructure.
Why be so down trodden about Samsung setting up a factory here, even if it's the most basic assembly? Do you expect them to invest billions without doing a trial run?
Instead of comparing with China today, see China's trajectory. It took time for China to build the manufacturing base. The growth in the first phases had been slow. And then, once a threshold is passed, it accelerated.
We're in that hard phase now.
与中国相比：
我们目前在基础设施方面确实落后于他们，当然制造业也落后。但我们正在迎头赶上。
三星已经开始在印度建厂，哪怕只是最基本的组装厂，也没必要如此唱衰印度吧？难道你指望外资不试运行就立刻投资数十亿美元？
与其与今天的中国比较，不如看看中国的发展轨迹。中国建立制造业也不是一蹴而就的。第一阶段增长缓慢。然后，一旦迈过门槛，就会加速增长。
我们现在正处于这个艰难的第一阶段。
That video on Why India Is Not China is more blackpilling than an economic analysis. Having problems doesn't mean you aren't going to win—India today has been willing to solve the problems.
The guy presenting the video is misreading current problems to be unsolvable at best and is deliberately dencouncing India's potential at worst.
Point 1: Size of China's manufacturing and Point 2: India neglected manufacturing:
That's why we are playing catch up now and trying to figure out. This is a work in progress. There are several big obstacles to be tackled here and they will be tackled post-election.
“为什么印度不能成为中国”，这个视频与其说是经济分析，不如说是刻意贬低。存在问题并不意味着你不会赢——何况当下的印度愿意解决问题。
制作视频的人，往好里说，是误认为印度当前的问题无法解决，往坏里说，是故意贬低印度的潜力。
他列举了十点理由，我们来逐条分析：
第一点:中国制造业的规模庞大。
第二点:印度忽视制造业。
印度现在正在努力追赶建立自己的制造业。这里有几个大的障碍需要解决，这些障碍将在选举后得到解决。
Point 3: China dominates traditional manufacturing:
Steel, Cement are the examples he gave.
While stating "These are two industries vital for future economic growth."
Everything needs to be taken in context. Here, it is certainly inappropriate. China has gone down the road of overbuilding.
Its constructions are not in response to demand, do not consider sustainability. China builds for the sake of building—to keep the economy going. They see Infrastructure as another engine of economy—far too much for their good.
Now they've put themselves in a position that they CANNOT stop the scale of their buildings. Even though the demand has already diminished, the production has not.
If they really try, tens of millions will be unemployed and big companies will be thrown into chaos. A chain reaction will hit their economy. The real estate housing crisis is only a part of this bigger bubble.
India needs to scale up infrastructure and in doing so, pull up its national steel and cement champions. This is not an indicator for why India is not next China. It's a ridiculous point.
第三点:中国的传统制造业非常强势。
他以钢铁，水泥举例，说:“这两个行业对未来经济增长至关重要。”
然而在当前的中国，这个例子是不合适的。因为中国已经走上了过度建设的道路。
它的建设不符合需求，不考虑可持续性。中国为了建设而建设——为了保持经济的发展。他们将建造基础设施视为拉动经济增长的引擎——远远超出了他们的需求。
现在，他们已经陷入了建筑规模不断扩大无法停止的境地。尽管需求已经减少，但产量并未减少。
如果他们继续下去，数千万人将失业，大公司将陷入混乱。连锁反应将打击他们的经济。房地产危机只是更大泡沫的一部分。
印度需要扩大基础设施规模，并在此过程中重振本国钢铁和水泥龙头企业。但规模不如中国并不能说明印度不能成为下一个中国。这是一个荒谬的观点。
Point 4: China's share of global exports
Investments were made post 1990s that continue to bear fruit. China has made the right call and empowered its MSMEs. Hence the situation.
India is taking steps to empower its MSMEs. With the steps currently being taken, it is rational to assume our share of global exports will start rising.
Point 5: The Chinese Ecosystem
Took time to be built. India is in its nascent state of manufacturing. Indian ecosystem will also be built and it will take time, but it will be built faster than Chinese ecosystem, no doubt.
第四点:中国在全球出口中的份额占比高
我承认，中国在20世纪90年代后进行的投资如今获得了回报，中国做出了正确的选择，扶持中小微企业，因此有了今天的地位。
而印度正在采取措施扶持其中小微企业。鉴于印度目前正在采取的措施，我们有理由认为，印度在全球出口中所占的份额将开始上升。
第5点:中国生态产业链较为全面
印度需要时间来打造自己的生态产业链。印度正处于制造业的起步阶段。印度的生态产业链也会逐步建立起来，这需要时间，但毫无疑问，它建立的速度将比同时期的中国更快。
India is 10-15 Years Behind China
Of course. We wouldn't be working to catch up with them otherwise.
The youtuber points out the near stagnation of manufacturing as % of GDP. It's a correct observation for the past. But to project future off it is disingenuous without a proper study into why the stagnation even happened.
If economics is as simple as looking at a bunch of numbers and predicting future, economists would all be millionaires.
The stagnation had multiple reasons—most prominent being: lack of Infrastructure, looming banking crisis.
我个人认为印度落后中国10-15年
这没什么好否认的，否则我们就不会努力追赶他们了。
这位油管博主指出，印度制造业占GDP的比例接近停滞。这是对过去的正确观察。但如果不好好研究为什么会出现这种停滞，就以此来预测未来，那就大错特错了。
如果经济学家只靠一堆数字就能简单预测未来，那么每个经济学家都会成为百万富翁。
印度制造业停滞有多种原因，其中最突出的原因是：缺乏基础设施，和亟待解决的银行业问题。
Point 6: India needs Chinese materials to manufacture
The youtuber is making a correct observation of an event—India imports a lot of stuff to manufacture the final product.
But he's making an incorrect projection. That India will keep doing so.
Local manufacturing for components will pick up eventually. China hasn't started doing 100% local manufacturing from day 1. It still doesn't.
Point 7: India's Infrastructure Problems
The youtuber states India's number 1 problem is Lack of Infrastructure.
That's something many can agree on. That's precisely why he shouldn't make a pessimistic projection because Indian govt is spending more and more on Infra every year. There is visible change all across the country in just 9 years. This will continue and snowball.
第6点:印度需要中国材料来制造产品
这位博主对此事的观察是正确的——印度从中国进口了很多东西来制造最终产品。
但他的预测是错误的。印度不会永远进口中国材料。印度的本土制造比例最终会上升。
中国也不是一开始就能制造100%纯国产的商品。直到今天它在一些领域仍然不能做到这一点，
第7点:印度的基础设施问题
这位博主表示，印度的头号问题是缺乏基础设施。
这一点很多人都同意。但这也正是他不应该做出悲观预测的原因，因为印度政府每年在基础设施上的支出越来越多。在短短9年的时间里，印度全国各地都发生了明显的变化。这种情况将继续下去，就像滚雪球一样。
Note: The youtuber showed a normal road with lots of people, autos in the middle of a city while playing this part. Why? Aren't freight trains, large roads and ports more important? Poverty porn much?
The problems he raised are all ironically things that are already identified and are being improved.
India's express ways are 4,000 km compared to China's 160,000 km.
Again, this is an accurate observation of current state but is a bad, bad predictor of future. The youtuber only taken snaps and knows nothing of trajectory.
India's expressways were barely 1,000 on 2014. By end of 2024, they're going to hit 5,000. 5X in 10 years.
And two more factors to keep in mind:
1. India's land area is nearly 3 times smaller than China's.
2. China doesn't built for the sake of demand, it has long passed that point. It now builds for the sake of economy.
注意:这位博主在视频中故意插入一段画面，展示印度充斥着行人和车辆的拥挤道路。为什么？是印度的货运列车、大型公路和港口不需要展示吗?还是博主想靠展示印度的贫穷画面来吸引讨好视频受众?
具有讽刺意味的是，他提出的问题，都是印度已经发现并正在改进的问题。
他说印度的高速公路是4000公里，而中国的高速公路是16万公里。
这一观察并没有错，但他对印度未来的预测却很糟糕。他只知道对比当前数据，却对未来增长趋势一无所知。
2014年，印度的高速公路仅有1000条。到2024年底，印度的高速公路已经达到5000条。10年内增长5倍。
还有两个因素需要记住:
1. 印度的土地面积只有中国的三分之一。
2. 中国不是为了满足需求而建设的，它的建设早就超过了需求。中国现在是为了拉动经济而建设。
Point 8: India's Bueracracy
It is on PMO's agenda to fix out this problem. They have acknowledged this and if the past records say something, they might already have a plan to implement in their third term.
Point 9: India's Labor Issues
Upskilling is a thing. Again, cheap internet basically gives both the govt and private sectors a massive lever in helping upskill the youth of country. Moreover, once the manufacturing does rise, they will get skilled for the jobs.
Point 10: Technology and R&D
Indian govt and people alike acknowledge this problem. GOI has started the baby steps in this direction by establishing National Research Foundation Center.
Also, an important point to be made here: When you don't have manufacturing, you don't have much to research for.
As manufacturing grows, local champions grow, they will invest for their own benefit and an ecosystem will be formed which will help everyone.
第8点:印度的官僚主义
这个问题已经提上了政府的议程。印度政府已经承认了这一点，如果从过去的记录来看，他们已经有了准备在第三任期实施的计划。
第9点:印度的劳工问题
印度劳工需要提高技能。而廉价的互联网教育为政府和私营部门提供了有力手段，帮助国内年轻人提高技能。此外，一旦制造业崛起，印度劳工就会掌握工作所需的技能。
第10点:技术和研发薄弱
印度政府和人民都承认这个问题。印度政府通过建立国家研究基金会，在这个方向上小步迈进。
此外，有一点原因很重要:当你没有制造业时，你就无法投入太多的研究项目。
随着印度制造业的发展，当地龙头企业的成长，他们将为自己的利益进行投资，形成一个有利于所有人的生态系统。
Conclusion:
The blackpilling folks can blackpill. The ones without confidences can live without confidence. The ones who already accepted defeat can continue to demean India on all Social Media.
The people who can see the changes happening are optimistic and find even more drive to do better in their own lives.
Bharat has a lot of problems. But it also a lot of solutions to try solve those problems.
It won't happen overnight. We'll stumble on the way. Many policies might fail, but the few that succeed and succeed spectacularly, they'll definite the trajectory and build the future of our civilizational state.
结论:
悲观的人可以继续悲观。没有信心的人可以继续没有信心地生活。认为印度已经失败的人可以继续在所有社交媒体上贬低印度。
能看到变化正在发生的人则会感到乐观，并在自己的生活中找到变好的更大动力。
印度有很多问题。但它也有很多解决方案来解决这些问题。
成功不会一蹴而就。我们会在前进的道路上磕磕绊绊。许多政策可能会失败，但少数的政策会取得巨大成功，它们将明确我们文明国家的发展轨迹和未来。
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