全球不平等正在缩小-这值得庆祝
2024-09-14 侧对飞雪 4871
正文翻译


题图:印度绝对贫困人口数量的大幅下降,堪称世界历史上人类福祉最显著的改善之一。

Imagine that across the length and breadth of America, working-class wages grew much faster than the incomes of millionaires. Rustbelt states started catching up with their more prosperous coastal counterparts. But these developments came with a caveat: greater income inequality in Beverly Hills. The pay cheque gap between Leonardo DiCaprio and his supporting cast increased. Superhero sequels crushed indie movies at the box office.

试想一下,在全美各地,工人阶级的工资增长速度远远超过百万富翁的收入增长速度。铁锈地带各州开始赶上更繁荣的沿海各州。但这些发展也伴随着一个警告:比佛利山庄的收入不平等加剧。莱昂纳多-迪卡普里奥和他的配角们之间的收入差距拉大了。超级英雄续集票房碾压独立电影。

Taken as a whole, these developments would be cause for joyous celebration. Few would shed a tear for the Golden Globe nominees falling further behind their Oscar-winning colleagues.

从整体上看,这些进展值得欢庆。很少有人会为金球奖提名影片落后于奥斯卡获奖影片而流泪。

Something analogous to this happy fiction has been happening at a worldwide level over roughly the past half century. While the public discourse focuses overwhelmingly on rising domestic inequality in western countries, global inequality has fallen sharply, primarily due to the rise of two Asian giants, China and India. In 1980, the two countries accounted for almost 40 per cent of the world population but only 5 per cent of world income. Today they still make up roughly the same share of global population, but account for a much larger 25 per cent of global income. The global income distribution remains unequal, but not nearly as unequal as it used to be.

大约在过去的半个世纪里,世界范围内一直在发生着类似于这种美好幻想的事情。虽然公众讨论的焦点绝大多数集中在西方国家国内不平等现象的加剧上,但全球不平等现象却急剧下降,这主要归功于中国和印度这两个亚洲巨人的崛起。1980年,这两个国家的人口占世界人口的近40%,但收入仅占世界收入的5%。今天,这两个国家在全球人口中所占的比例仍然大致相同,但在全球收入中所占的比例却高得多,达到25%。全球收入分配仍然不平等,但已不像过去那么不平等。

Since they started liberalising their economies in the late 20th century, both China and India have been utterly transformed from the plodding and insular economies they used to be. In neither country was liberalisation a once-and-for-all event; reforms gathered speed at times and subsided or even went into reverse at others. Nonetheless, the overall trajectory has been unmistakable.

自20世纪末开始实行经济自由化以来,中国和印度都彻底改变了过去那种步履蹒跚、闭关锁国的经济状况。在这两个国家,自由化都不是一劳永逸的;改革时而加速,时而减弱,甚至倒退。然而,总体轨迹是明确无误的。

Both countries registered a step-increase in GDP growth post liberalisation compared with previous decades. More important, the new economic dynamism lifted all boats. Although both countries saw an increase in inequality after liberalising, there was nonetheless rapid income growth even at the bottom of the income distribution. The steep fall in the number of people living in absolute poverty in China and India must count as one of the most dramatic improvements in human welfare in the history of the world. Together, the two countries were responsible for lifting an astonishing 1.1bn people above the international poverty line over the past four decades.

与前几十年相比,这两个国家在自由化后的国内生产总值增长都有了质的飞跃。更重要的是,新的经济活力使所有的人都受益。虽然自由化后两国的不平等现象都有所加剧,但即使在收入分配的最底层,收入也在快速增长。中国和印度的绝对贫困人口数量急剧下降,这是世界历史上人类福祉最显著的改善之一。在过去的四十年里,这两个国家共使11亿人脱离了国际贫困线。

Over the same period, income inequality rose sharply in the west, so much so that it now dominates the political discourse and is one of the chief culprits behind a resurgent populism on both sides of the Atlantic. In most OECD countries the labour share of income has declined substantially in recent decades, with the gains from economic growth accruing disproportionately to the owners of capital and the highly educated. A vivid illustration is provided by the US, where GDP per capita has more than doubled since the mid-1980s, but median household income has risen by only about 30 per cent.

在同一时期,西方国家的收入不平等现象急剧上升,以至于它现在主导着政治话语,成为大西洋两岸民粹主义卷土重来的罪魁祸首之一。近几十年来,在大多数经合组织国家,劳动收入所占比例大幅下降,经济增长带来的收益不成比例地归属于资本所有者和受过高等教育的人。美国就是一个生动的例子,自20世纪80年代中期以来,美国的人均国内生产总值增长了一倍多,但家庭收入中位数仅增长了约30%。

These numbers are disturbing and politically consequential. They have fuelled populist attacks on what might be called the liberal economic order: a system of free(ish) trade and cross-border investment, substantial immigration from poor to rich countries, and a rules-based international order adjudicated by institutions such as the World Trade Organization.

这些数字令人不安,也具有政治影响。它们助长了民粹主义对所谓自由经济秩序的攻击:自由贸易和跨境投资体系、从穷国向富国的大量移民,以及由世界贸易组织等机构裁定的基于规则的国际秩序。

But they need to be put in perspective. The US and western Europe collectively comprise about 11 per cent of the global population. Their deteriorating domestic income distributions must be set against the gains made by much vaster numbers of much poorer people. The economist Branko Milanovic has pointed out that the Theil index — a standard measure of global income inequality — has shown considerable improvement since the 1980s, with widening within-country inequality more than outweighed by narrowing between-country inequality.

但我们必须正确看待这些问题。美国和西欧合计约占全球人口的11%。它们不断恶化的国内收入分配情况必须与数量庞大得多的贫困人口所获得的收益相提并论。经济学家布兰科-米拉诺维奇指出,自20世纪80年代以来,衡量全球收入不平等状况的标准指标--泰尔指数已经有了相当大的改善,国家内部不平等的扩大被国家之间不平等的缩小所抵消。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


How should a universalist — somebody who holds that human life has equal worth irrespective of location — regard the overall trajectory of the past half century?

一个普世主义者--一个认为人的生命不分地域具有同等价值的人--应该如何看待过去半个世纪的总体发展轨迹?

The philosopher John Rawls suggested that questions about the just ordering of society should be considered from behind a “veil of ignorance”. If you knew nothing about your own attributes — whether you were rich or poor, male or female, Chinese or American — which society would you choose to inhabit: today’s world, or the world of 50 years ago? Given that your chances of being Chinese or Indian are roughly two-fifths, while your chances of being a westerner are about one-tenth, you would almost certainly choose the present. Trouble in Beverly Hills should not obscure the much wider progress of those who live on less elevated ground.

哲学家约翰-罗尔斯提出,应该在“无知的面纱”后面考虑有关社会公正秩序的问题。如果你对自己的属性一无所知--无论你是富人还是穷人、男性还是女性、中国人还是美国人--你会选择居住在哪个社会:今天的世界,还是50年前的世界?鉴于你成为中国人或印度人的几率约为五分之二,而成为西方人的几率约为十分之一,你几乎肯定会选择现在的社会。比弗利山庄的麻烦不应该掩盖那些生活在地势较低地区的人们取得的广泛进步。

评论翻译
@XLondoner
The Western working class was dumped - without its consent - into a global working class in which workers in Indiana and Tyneside were forced to compete for jobs with workers in China, India and elsewhere.

西方工人阶级在未经其同意的情况下被抛弃到全球工人阶级中,印第安纳州和泰恩赛德(英格兰东北部一个地区)的工人被迫与中国、印度和其他地方的工人竞争工作。

This was great for owners. They played-off workers in different countries in order to maximise their own incomes.

这对企业主来说是件好事。他们为了最大限度地增加自己的收入,在不同的国家与工人进行博弈。

Nor could governments force owners to share their spoils. Globalisation also made it very easy to shift profits and taxable incomes into jurisdictions where normal governments couldn't touch them.

政府也不能强迫他们分享他们的战利品。全球化还使利润和应税收入很容易转移到普通政府无法触及的司法管辖区。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The globalists who created this situation now curse the names of "populist" politicians who for some reason don't think the above situation is all that great.

造成这种局面的全球主义者现在诅咒那些“民粹主义”政客的名字,因为他们出于某种原因并不认为上述情况有多好。

@LackingGravitas
Given the enthusiasm with which Thatcher and Reagan were elected and re-elected, and the indifference modern citizens have towards the alternative to their cheap clothes and holidays, I'm not sure you can say it was entirely without consent. Self defeating to be sure, but not exactly forced on them

考虑到撒切尔和里根当选和连任时的热情,以及现代公民对廉价服装和假期的漠不关心,我不确定你是否可以说这完全是未经同意的。自相矛盾是肯定的,但也不完全是被迫的。

@XLondoner
I'd say that in the UK context, the biggest lurches into hyper-globalisation were conducted by Tony Blair, who oversaw the massive expansion of the EU into poor Eastern Europe without imposing even transitional controls on migration, and by George W Bush, who engineered China's entry into the WTO (1).

我认为,就英国而言,托尼-布莱尔和乔治-布什对超级全球化的冲击最大,前者监督了欧盟向贫穷的东欧的大规模扩张,甚至没有对移民实施过渡性控制;后者则策划了中国加入世贸组织。

That's not to exempt Reagan and Thatcher, but operating as they were in a Cold War context, their opportunities for hyper-globalisation were perforce more limited.

这并不是说里根和撒切尔就可以置身事外,但由于他们是在冷战背景下开展工作,因此他们实现超级全球化的机会必然会受到更多限制。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@XuloChavez
In that case inequality in the UK must have reduced massively since leaving the enlarged EU? Why all the far right rioting then??

如果是这样的话,英国的不平等现象一定是在脱离欧盟后大幅减少了?那为什么还会发生极右翼暴乱?

@MoreTechPolicy
Because the drug Blair used to calm the people called BENEFITS ran out. People simply have to accept that they are poorer now, riot for benefits, or learn in demand skills.

因为布莱尔用来安抚民众的名为“福利”的药物用完了。人们只能接受自己现在更穷的事实,要么发起暴动以获取福利,要么学习紧缺的技能。

@Observer124
Isn't this a lot fairer. The western working class can no longer rely on luck of birth to be in the top 5% globally. Its only fair that an Chinese entrepreneur now has equal or better quality of life than a UK school drop out.

这不是更公平吗?西方工人阶级不能再依靠出生的运气跻身全球前5%。现在,中国企业家的生活质量与英国辍学生相当,甚至更好,这才公平。

@Commenter99
Isn't the evidence suggestive that the vast majority of blue collar jobs were lost to automation rather than offshoring roles? Maybe somebody can point us to the data??

难道不是有证据表明,绝大多数蓝领工作都是由于自动化而不是离岸角色而流失的吗?也许有人能给我们提供相关数据?

@Mr Hat
Well said. To complain about hundreds of millions being lifted out of poverty because the average American can't buy an even bigger SUV is grotesque.

说得好。因为普通美国人不能买一辆更大的SUV,就抱怨数亿人摆脱了贫困,这简直是荒唐。

@Laer
Well said. It’s up to the individual to even know they want a bigger SUV than they need.

说得好。这取决于个人是否知道自己想要一辆比自己需要更大的SUV。

@Ian Slater
If living standards were broadly equal across the world, large scale migration would be much less of an issue for developed countries.

如果全世界的生活水平大体相当,那么大规模移民对发达国家来说就不是什么问题了。

@Halt_and_Catch_Fire
We are clearly scrapping the bottom of the BS-spin barrel to justify the massive inequalities in western society, and sadly, the unwillingness (disguised as impossibility) to tackle it. So, it will be a revolution then. Oh, well.

很明显,我们是在为西方社会中的巨大不平等,以及不愿(或假装成不可能)解决这一问题的可悲行为辩护。所以,这将是一场革命。哦,好吧。

@Automaton
Spent some time in India recently. Even at 40 degrees the heat in cities was unbearable, and I stayed in air conditioned rooms so had some relief. It’s been over 50 in Delhi this summer. That is just too hot.

最近在印度待了一段时间。即使在40度的高温下,城市里的酷热也让人难以忍受。今年夏天,德里的气温超过了50度。这实在是太热了。

And how much poverty reduction is a result of urbanisation leading to slightly higher incomes? Because I think I’d rather be poor in a rural village than a Mumbai slum, even if my income was lower. The atrocious conditions in cities are a form of extreme poverty in themselves. The traffic noise alone is almost unendurable.

再说城市化导致收入略微提高又能减少多少贫困呢?因为我觉得,即使收入较低,我也宁愿在农村而不是孟买的贫民窟里受穷。城市的恶劣环境本身就是一种极端贫困。光是交通噪音就几乎让人无法忍受。

The cities are already way past bursting point and with rising heat are becoming unlivable hellscapes. I’m not sure this is progress really.

城市已经远远超过了临界点,随着热量的上升,城市正在变成无法居住的地狱。我不确定这是不是真正的进步。

@FakeCharmer
One thing that often strikes me, particularly from my India travels, is how joyful people are. Whether it’s the guy who picks me up from the airport or the chap who brews the tea by the roadside. Puts paid to per capita based comparisons. Cannot quite put my finger on what drives this philosophy, but does make you feel alive.

在我的印度旅行中,有一件事常常令我印象深刻,那就是人们是多么快乐。无论是从机场来接我的人,还是在路边泡茶的小伙子,他们都是那么快乐。这让基于人均的比较失去了意义。我不知道是什么驱动了这种哲学,但确实让人感觉自己还活着。

@Le Gun
India is a country on the move. The UK mos def doesn't feel like that to me. I love it.

印度是一个不断发展的国家。英国给我的感觉可不是这样。我喜欢它。

@Maya.vh
Ah yes the "noble savage", Rousseau's romantic conception of man enjoying a natural and noble existence until civilization makes him a slave to unnatural wants and corrupts him.I too traveled to India and I'm pretty sure those millions of people sleeping on the street would choose a home, a modern and comfortable life, and writing snarky remarks in the comments section of the FT - if they had that option. Saying "but they're so happy" is just for you to feel better about the condition of the world's poorest - but maybe we all need our delusions.

啊,是的,“高贵的野蛮人”,卢梭的浪漫主义构想,即人类享受着自然而高贵的生活,直到文明使他成为非自然欲望的奴隶,并使他堕落。我也去过印度,我敢肯定,那些睡在大街上的数百万人会选择有一个家,选择现代而舒适的生活,选择在《金融时报》的评论区写些尖酸刻薄的评论--如果他们有这样的选择的话。说“但他们是如此幸福”只是为了让你对世界上最贫穷的人的境况好受些--但也许我们都需要我们的妄想。

@woodrowwil
I travel through India regularly. Generally speaking, the people are courteous, smiling, and eager to help. Doesn’t matter if you’re at a 5 star hotel or a roadside eatery. At least that’s my experience….

我经常在印度旅行。一般来说,印度人都彬彬有礼、面带微笑、热心助人。不管是在五星级酒店还是路边小餐馆,都是如此。至少这是我的经验….

@O.J.
When were you last there? Haven’t seen a cheery taxi driver in ages!

你上次去是什么时候?我可是好久没看到开朗的出租车司机了!

@Laer
Ah, then it’s much like Budapest in the recent years. Bad gov’t wears on everyone.

啊,那就跟近年来的布达佩斯差不多。糟糕的政府让每个人都疲惫不堪。

@Laer
What drives it is values. Life values. An understanding more precious than gold. But it it’s culturally derived.

驱动它的是价值观。人生价值。一种比黄金更珍贵的理解。但它是文化衍生出来的。

@R.
India itself has a lot of poverty, yet its billionaires are busy spending on lavish weddings with western celebrities

印度本身非常贫穷,但其亿万富翁们却忙着与西方名人举办奢华婚礼
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@Claudius Donnelly
Indeed. If anything were to make me favour a maximum income it would be the revolting travesty that was that wedding...

确实如此。如果说有什么能让我对最高收入青睐有加的话,那就是那场令人作呕的婚礼了…

@Laer
Incredibly insensitive is it not? And yet, it is just this insensitivity that leads to this understanding that if I do not follow my instincts to be the most rich, the only thing that happens is that someone else will do it. So why not me? Samsara and the wheel of it all. It keeps turning and going.

这难道不是令人难以置信的麻木不仁吗?然而,正是这种麻木导致了这样一种认识:如果我不按照自己的本能去做最富有的人,那么唯一的结果就是别人会这样做。那为什么不是我呢?轮回一切,一切轮回。它不停地转动,不停地运转。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@Antond
Lies, big lies and statistics. The quality of life at the bottom got a lot worse, even though they have an income that -statistically- counts, instead of barter trading in rural communities. Or wouldn’t you trade a quiet life, yet poor, in the country over struggling to get by in the slums?

谎言、弥天大谎和统计数据。底层人民的生活质量变得更差了,尽管他们的收入在统计上是上涨的,而不是在农村社区以物易物。或者说,与在贫民窟挣扎求生相比,你难道不会选择在乡村过上平静但贫穷的生活吗?

@Myk8
great point- been thinking about this.

说得好--我一直在思考这个问题。

@riskstrategies
This is somewhat of a meaningless and misleading feel good statistic. While global inequality may be decreasing marginally, since the 1980s many developed and developing countries have experienced increases in within-country inequality . There has been a recent acceleration of inequality. This fact will continue to cause social instability within countries.

这是一个毫无意义的、误导性的、令人感觉良好的统计数据。虽然全球不平等现象可能略有减少,但自20世纪80年代以来,许多发达国家和发展中国家的国内不平等现象都有所加剧。最近,不平等现象加速分化。这一事实将继续造成国家内部的社会不稳定。

@Martin Wolf
It has not decreased marginally. It has decreased dramatically and so the proportion of the human population in extreme poverty has collapsed from about 50 per cent in 1960 to below 10 per cent now. This is NOT “meaningless and misleading”. It is the most remarkable transformation in human economic history.

它不是略有下降,而是大幅下降。因此,赤贫人口比例已从1960年的约50%下降到现在的10%以下。这并非“毫无意义和误导”。这是人类经济史上最了不起的变革。

@riskstrategies
According to the UN studies, since 1990, income inequality has increased in most developed countries and in some middle-income countries, including China and India. While global decreases in income inequality are to be welcomed, the global figures mean little to individuals in specific countries suffering the consequences of their country specific income inequality.

根据联合国的研究,自1990年以来,大多数发达国家以及包括中国和印度在内的一些中等收入国家的收入不平等现象有所加剧。虽然全球收入不平等现象的减少值得欢迎,但对于遭受本国收入不平等后果的特定国家的个人来说,全球数字意义不大。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@Hope
That is all meaningless to the residents of Gary, Indiana. Martin you live in a bubble of theory and never touch the ordinary citizen

这对印第安纳州加里市的居民来说毫无意义。马丁,你生活在理论的泡沫中,从未接触过普通公民

@Development Economics44
Martin Wolf will be well aware that all measures of poverty and sources of poverty data need to be approached with a degree of caution, particularly data from fragile and conflict-affected countries, if it is even available.

@Martin Wolf将清楚地认识到,所有贫困衡量标准和贫困数据来源都需要谨慎对待,特别是来自脆弱国家和受冲突影响国家的数据(如果有的话)。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


As measures of poverty and inequality are based on survey data, they are only really sample statistics and need to take into account the type of sampling and weighting given to the data. What also needs to be remembered is that measuring poverty at the household level neglects the individual poverty of its members. For example, unequal resource allocation within a household can mean that women’s levels of poverty differ from the household average. The same applies to children, and people with disabilities.

由于贫困和不平等的衡量是以调查数据为基础的,因此它们只是真正的抽样统计,需要考虑到抽样的类型和数据的权重。还需要记住的是,在家庭层面衡量贫困会忽略家庭成员的个人贫困。例如,家庭内部资源分配不均可能意味着妇女的贫困水平与家庭平均水平不同。这同样适用于儿童和残疾人。

There is also ample evidence to suggests that urban poverty in low-income countries has been misunderstood and under-estimated as a result of models and measurement methods based on rural poverty. Indeed, poverty lines used by the World Bank have often not been fit for purpose as they define a lot of people living in urban areas as not poor despite their malnourishment, premature deaths, poor housing, lack adequate water and sanitation.

还有大量证据表明,由于采用了基于农村贫困的模式和衡量方法,低收入国家的城市贫困问题被误解和低估了。事实上,世界银行使用的贫困线往往不符合目的,因为它们将许多生活在城市地区的人定义为非贫困人口,尽管他们营养不良、过早死亡、住房条件差、缺乏足够的水和卫生设施。

很赞 4
收藏