网帖翻译

Overnight, the situation in the Middle East suddenly changed significantly. First, in the early morning of October 1, the Israel Defense Forces entered the southern Lebanon region and began to launch a ground offensive against Hezbollah. Just a dozen hours later, Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on Israel that night. The situation in the Middle East has seriously escalated! A full-scale war is imminent.

就在一夜之间，中东局势突然出现了重大变化。 首先是10月1日凌晨，以色列国防军进入黎巴嫩南部地区，开始向真主党武装发起地面进攻。 仅仅十几个小时之后，当天晚上伊朗就向以色列发动了大规模导弹袭击。 中东局势严重升级！ 全面战争一触即发。

The Israeli army's ground offensive against Hezbollah was expected by many military observers, because the Israeli airstrike on Hezbollah headquarters on September 27, beheading Hezbollah's top leader Nasrallah, was a very clear signal that Israel was ready to have a showdown with Hezbollah. Since the Hezbollah pager explosion on September 18, Israel has continued to carry out fierce air strikes for ten days. At present, Hezbollah's senior leaders are almost wiped out, and thousands of middle-level backbones have been killed and injured. The entire command and communication system can be said to have completely collapsed. The Hezbollah armed forces are leaderless, suffering heavy losses, and low morale. It is the time when their strength is weakest, and this is also the best time Israel has been waiting for.

以军对真主党的地面进攻，这早在很多军事观察员的意料之中，因为9月27日以军空袭真主党总部斩首真主党最高领导人纳斯鲁拉，就是一个非常明确的信号，以色列准备和真主党彻底摊牌清算了。 自从9月18日，真主党寻呼机爆炸事件以来，以色列已经持续进行了十天的猛烈空袭，眼下真主党的高层领导几乎团灭，中层骨干死伤数千人，整个指挥、通讯体系可以说完全崩塌了。 真主党武装群龙无首，损失惨重，士气低落，正是力量最薄弱的时候，这也正是以色列一直在等待的最佳时机。

Israel's ground offensive this time has two main purposes. First, to further strike Hezbollah. Even if it cannot be completely eliminated, it must cause the greatest damage to Hezbollah, making it difficult for Hezbollah to recover in the short term, creating a peaceful environment for Israel for five or even ten years. Second, in southern Lebanon, mainly in the area from the Lebanese-Israeli border to the south bank of the Litani River, it is recommended to establish a buffer zone, or a safe zone, or a demilitarized zone, with a depth of about 30 kilometers to ensure the safety of northern Israel, at least so that tens of thousands of northern Israelis who have evacuated their homes can return home and resume normal life.

以色列这次地面进攻，目的主要是两个，一是进一步打击真主党的力量，即便不能彻底肃清，也要给真主党造成最大限度的重创，使得真主党在短期内难以恢复元气，为以色列打出五年甚至十年的和平环境。 二是在黎巴嫩南部，主要是在黎以边境到利塔尼河南岸地区，建议纵深大约30公里的缓冲区，或者叫安全区、非武装区，来确保以色列北部地区的安全，至少让现在数万撤离家园的以色列北部民众能够返回家园，恢复正常生活。

It should be said that these two goals of Israel are not difficult to achieve. The key is the issue of time. Unlike the military operation against Hamas in Gaza, this ground operation against Hezbollah must adopt a quick and decisive blitzkrieg, "fast in and slow out". The military operation must be fast and end in about ten days, followed by the establishment of a buffer zone, which may last for months or even years.

应该说，以色列的这两个目标，并不难实现。 关键是时间问题，和在加沙对哈马斯的军事行动不同，这次对真主党的地面行动必须要采取速战速决的闪击战，“快进慢出”，军事行动要快，在十天左右结束，随后就是建立缓冲区，这个时间就可能要持续数月甚至数年。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Because the Gaza area is small and densely populated, and Hamas hides its troops among the people, the rapid progress of the military operation will inevitably lead to a large number of civilian casualties, which will cause condemnation from the international community. Therefore, the Israeli army has to control the progress, identify and confirm the targets of the attack, and minimize civilian casualties. Despite this, it was still condemned and isolated by the international community.

因为加沙地区面积狭小人口密集，哈马斯又藏兵于民，军事行动进展快，必然导致大量平民死伤，从而引起国际社会的谴责，所以以军不得不控制进展，对攻击目标进行甄别和确认，尽可能减少平民伤亡。 尽管如此，还是遭到了国际社会的谴责和孤立。

As for Hezbollah, due to the imminent US election, the United States has been asking Israel not to launch a ground offensive to avoid escalating the situation in the Middle East, leading to rising oil prices, and thus impacting the US economy, which is not good for the ruling Democratic government. Although Israel finally ignored the opposition of the United States and insisted on launching a ground offensive. However, in order to obtain the support of the United States in the future, Israel must fight quickly and make a quick decision to minimize the impact on the US economy and the election.

而现在对真主党，由于美国大选在即，美国之前一直要求以色列不要发动地面进攻，以免引起中东局势升级，导致油价上涨，从而对美国经济产生冲击，这对执政的民主党政府不利。 虽然以色列最终还是不顾美国的反对，坚持发动了地面进攻。 但是为了后续还能获得美国的支持，以色列就必须速战速决，将对美国经济和大选的影响降到最低。

Then, another big thing happened!
At 19:30 on the evening of October 1, local time, Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on Israel. Air defense alarms were sounded almost throughout Israel. Millions of residents in major cities such as Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Beersheba rushed into air-raid shelters to avoid air strikes.
According to reports, Iran launched about 200 missiles, including the most advanced "Fatah" hypersonic missile. However, most of the missiles were intercepted by the Israeli army's "Patriot" air defense missiles and "Iron Dome" air defense systems. The loss situation is not clear now.

紧接着，又一件大事发生了！
当地时间10月1日晚19时30分，伊朗对以色列发动大规模飞弹袭击，以色列几乎全境都拉响了防空警报，以色列耶路撒冷、特拉维夫、海法、贝尔谢巴等多个大城市的数百万居民紧急涌入防空洞躲避空袭。
据报道，伊朗发射了大约200枚导弹，其中还包括最先进的“法塔赫”高超音速飞弹。 不过绝大部分导弹都被以军的“爱国者”防空导弹和“铁穹”防空系统拦截。 现在损失情况还不清楚。

Regardless of the loss situation, this incident will inevitably cause a serious escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Because Israel will inevitably fight back, and even trigger a full-scale war between Israel and Iran.
The key now is Israel's losses, which will determine the scale and extent of Israel's subsequent retaliation.

不管损失情况如何，这个事件必然都会引起中东局势的严重升级。 因为以色列必然会进行反击，甚至会引发以色列同伊朗的全面战争。
现在的关键是以色列损失情况，这将决定以色列接下来报复反击的规模和程度。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

If the losses are minor, just like the last time the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Brigadier General Zahedi, was beheaded, Iran's missile attack only injured an Israeli child, and Israel's retaliation was symbolic in the end. The same is true this time. The United States will definitely suppress Israel to avoid causing the situation in the Middle East to deteriorate.
But if Israel suffers great losses, the United States will not be able to suppress it. It should be noted that Jewish communities and Jewish financial groups have a significant influence on the political and business circles of the United States.

如果损失轻微，就像上次伊朗革命卫队司令扎赫迪准将被斩首后，伊朗的导弹袭击只造成了以色列一名儿童受伤，最后以色列的报复也就象征性意思一下。 这次同样如此，美国一定会压制以色列，避免引起中东局势恶化。
但是如果以色列损失很大，那美国想压也压不住了。 要知道犹太社团和犹太财团对美国的政界商界都是具有重大影响力的。

Israel's retaliatory counterattack may be to behead Iranian senior officials, or to carry out air strikes on Iran's high-value targets, such as oil facilities and nuclear facilities. Oil facilities are the mainstay of Iran's economy. Despite the economic sanctions imposed by the West, Iran still has some oil trade with some countries and organizations. If these oil facilities are attacked, it will have a huge negative impact on Iran's economy, making the already difficult Iranian economy even worse.

以色列的报复反击，可能对会伊朗高层进行斩首，也可能对伊朗的高价值目标进行空袭，如石油设施和核设施。 石油设施是伊朗经济的支柱，尽管受到西方的经济制裁，但伊朗和一些国家和组织还是有一些石油贸易，如果这些石油设施遭到袭击，将会对伊朗的经济产生巨大的负面影响，给已经非常困难的伊朗经济雪上加霜。

As for nuclear facilities, they are definitely Iran's darlings, and this is also a thorn in Israel's eyes that it has always wanted to remove. Of course, this is also Iran's bottom line. If nuclear facilities are bombed, it is very likely to trigger a full-scale war.

至于核设施，那绝对是伊朗的宠儿，这也是以色列一直要拔掉的眼中钉肉中刺。 当然这也是伊朗的底线，如果核设施被炸，极有可能会引发全面战争。