近50年来,英国的死亡人数首次超过出生人数
2024-10-14 jiangye111 2338
正文翻译
Deaths outstrip births in UK for first time in nearly 50 years
-Excluding the Covid pandemic, ONS figures show 16,300 fewer births than deaths, not seen since 1970s ‘baby bust’

近50年来,英国的死亡人数首次超过出生人数
——排除新冠肺炎疫情,英国国家统计局的数据显示,出生人数比死亡人数少1.63万人,这是自上世纪70年代“婴儿潮”以来的最高水平。


(The total fertility rate in England and Wales fell to 1.49 children per woman in 2022, from 1.55 in 2021.)

(英格兰和威尔士的总生育率从2021年的每名妇女1.55个孩子降至2022年的1.49个孩子。)
新闻:

Deaths have outstripped births in the UK for the first time in nearly half a century, excluding the start of the pandemic, official figures showed on Tuesday.

周二公布的官方数据显示,除去新冠肺炎疫情初期,英国近半个世纪以来死亡人数首次超过出生人数。

Declining fertility and the demise of baby boomers mean there are now more funerals than baby celebrations, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics.

英国国家统计局的数据显示,生育率下降和婴儿潮一代的死亡意味着,现在英国葬礼的数量超过了庆祝婴儿出生的活动。

There were an estimated 16,300 fewer births than deaths in the UK in the year to mid-2023, the first time this has happened since the 1970s’ “baby bust”, if excess deaths during Covid are stripped out.

据估计,在截至2023年中期的一年里,英国的出生人数比死亡人数少1.63万人,如果不考虑新冠肺炎期间的超额死亡人数,这是自上世纪70年代“婴儿潮”以来首次出现这种情况。

But the figures continue to show a growing population, up 1% in the year to 68,265,209 people, due to net international migration of 677,300.

但数据继续显示,由于国际净移民677300人,人口增长了1%,达到68265209人。

The dominance of deaths over births was described by economists as “a stark reminder of Britain’s demographic challenges”.

经济学家将死亡人数超过出生人数的现象描述为“对英国面临的人口挑战的鲜明提醒”。

With student- and migrant-friendly cities ageing more slowly or even getting younger, and rural villages ageing faster, policymakers will face divergent demands to provide more social care in some areas and more school places in others, said Charlie McCurdy, an economist at the Resolution Foundation thinktank.

决议基金会智库的经济学家查理·麦科迪表示,随着对学生和移民友好的城市老龄化速度放缓甚至年轻化,而农村地区老龄化速度加快,政策制定者将面临不同的需求,在一些地区提供更多的社会关怀,在另一些地区提供更多的学校名额。
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The total fertility rate across England and Wales fell to 1.49 children per woman in 2022, from 1.55 in 2021, according to the ONS. The “replacement rate” to maintain a population needs to be at least 2.1 children per woman, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says.

根据英国国家统计局的数据,到2022年,英格兰和威尔士的总生育率从2021年的每名妇女1.55个孩子降至1.49个。经济合作与发展组织表示,维持人口的“替代率”需要每个妇女至少生育2.1个孩子。

However, demographers said births could again trump deaths in the near future, as the UK appears to be going through a transition whereby people will routinely have babies later, facilitated by advances in medical technology.

然而,人口统计学家表示,在不久的将来,出生率可能会再次超过死亡率,因为英国似乎正在经历一场过渡——在医疗技术进步的推动下,人们通常会推迟生育。

“Younger generations are postponing their childbearing, and so while fertility rates might be declining, there’s a chance that this could rebound,” said Dr Andrea Tilstra, a research fellow at Oxford University’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science.

牛津大学利华休姆人口科学中心的研究员安德里亚·蒂尔斯特拉博士说:“年轻一代正在推迟生育,所以尽管生育率可能在下降,但也有可能反弹。”

“That could happen as these cohorts enter into their 30s, maybe even early 40s, and the ability to have children later in one’s life becomes the norm, supported by technology like IVF.”

“这可能发生在这些人群进入30多岁,甚至40出头的时候,在试管婴儿等技术的支持下,晚育成为一种常态。”

Deaths outnumbering births was driven by Scotland, where the deficit was the largest on record and it was the ninth year in a row that more people died than were born. The overall population of Scotland grew, although only by 43,100 people, and this was down to immigration, figures from the National Records of Scotland showed.

死亡人数超过出生人数是由苏格兰的数据造成的,苏格兰的人口赤字是有记录以来最大的,这是连续第九年死亡人数超过出生人数。苏格兰国家记录的数据显示,苏格兰总人口有所增长,尽管仅增长了4.31万人,而且这是移民造成的。

Wales also recorded more deaths than births, while England and Northern Ireland recorded slightly more births than deaths, the mid-2023 population figures showed.

2023年中期的人口数据显示,威尔士的死亡人数也高于出生人数,而英格兰和北爱尔兰的出生人数略高于死亡人数。

The baby deficit comes after several years of mothers leaving it later to have children, one of the common reasons given being financial pressures, including housing costs. Women born in the 1940s gave birth on average to almost two children before turning 30. That fell steadily to one child for women born in the mid-1970s, and plateaued before starting to fall again in recent years. Women born in 1993 – who turned 30 last year – had 0.8 children, on average.

多年来,母亲们为了生育孩子而推迟了工作,其中一个常见的原因是经济压力,包括住房成本。上世纪40年代出生的女性在30岁之前平均生育了近两个孩子。20世纪70年代中期出生的女性,这一数字稳步下降至一个孩子,并在近年来再次开始下降之前趋于平稳。1993年出生的女性(去年满30岁)平均生育0.8个孩子。

At the other end of life, dementia and Alzheimer’s disease have been the most common causes of death in England and Wales since 2015, when they overtook heart disease (apart from two years at the start of the Covid pandemic).

在生命的另一端,自2015年以来,痴呆症和阿尔茨海默病一直是英格兰和威尔士最常见的死亡原因,当时它们超过了心脏病(除了新冠疫情开始时的两年)。

评论翻译
On_The_BlindsideBest Midlands
It's because no one wants to have kids, why would they?
It's obscenely expensive, childcare provision is SO oversubscribed that you're having to sign up to nursery places even before you've had a 12 weeks scan around here for them to go at 1 year old, that's a full 18 months early.
Minumum maternity and paternity pay is utterly abysmal so you can't even bond with your child once they're born.
Schools are falling apart due to RAAC, teachers are quitting in droves, the economy fucking sucks and no one can buy a fucking house.
This is no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention, and without some BIG changes in wealth redistribution we're going to be entirely fucked as a country.

因为没人想要孩子,他们为什么想要呢?
这非常昂贵,托儿服务被超额订购,以至于你不得不在你做12周扫描之前就登记托儿所,让他们在1岁的时候去,这整整提前了18个月。
产假和陪产的最低工资简直糟透了,所以一旦孩子出生,你甚至无法与他们培养联系。
学校因为RAAC(译注:不安全的钢筋蒸压加气混凝土)正在崩裂,老师们成群结队地辞职,经济tmd糟透了,没人能买tmd房子。
这对任何关注的人来说都不足为奇,如果没有财富再分配方面的重大变化,我们这个国家就会彻底完蛋。

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Cultural_Champion543
Its an ideological problem - not an economic one. Many european nations like Finnland offer supreme support for families, yet birthrates are falling there as well...
People simply cant be bothered with kids anymore, prefering to spend their limited time and money on hobbies and other passions...

这是一个理念问题,而不是经济问题。许多欧洲国家,比如芬兰,为家庭提供最大的支持,但出生率也在下降。
人们就是再也不能为孩子烦恼了,他们宁愿把有限的时间和金钱花在兴趣爱好和其他激情上。

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atheistiumUnited Kingdom
Don't fully agree. Most people earn 30k or less and after rent, food, travel costs, bills... there's not much left for baby. These people aren't living in luxury with avacado toast, iphones and netflix. These are people on the bus to work, trying to make ends meet for their family the best they can, with what little is left at the end of the month.
A bunch of guys I work with just don't know how they'd cope and one guy who does have kids is constantly struggling and living on the breadline. Outside of his love for being a dad, he says it's really depressing around xmas time when he knows there's only so much he can get for the kids.
So while I agree that it's an ideological problem in regards to most people don't wanna have kids if it means they and their chilld will be living in poverty or quite poor, but let's be honest.
But for majority of potential parents, it's our system and economics that have fucked people hard.
I don't get how, in a cost of living crisis, when we're paying the highest rents, food prices, electricity, people constantly getting made redundant etc people can say it's only an ideological issue.

我不完全赞同。大多数人赚3万或更少,扣除房租、食物、旅行费用、账单……留给小孩的不多了。这些人并没有过着有阿瓦卡多吐司、iphone和网飞会员的奢侈生活。这些人乘坐公交车去上班,试图尽可能地维持家庭的收支平衡,在月底只剩下一点点钱。
和我一起工作的一群人都不知道他们该如何应对,一个有孩子的人一直在挣扎,生活在贫困线上。他说,除了对做父亲的热爱之外,在圣诞节期间,当他知道自己能给孩子们买的东西就这么多时,他真的很沮丧。
所以,虽然我同意这是一个理念问题——因为如果这意味着他们和他们的孩子将生活在贫困中或相当贫困,大多数人不想要孩子,但让我们坦诚一些。
但对于大多数潜在的父母来说,原因是我们的制度和经济让人们不堪重负。
我不明白,在生活成本危机中,当我们支付最高的租金、食品价格、电费、人们不断被解雇等时,人们怎么能说这只是一个理念问题。

Overall-Radish2724
Whilst many people do earn £30k and it is true, a lot of people who still have a lot of children are in the lower pay bracket.
It is a wider issue. Those with professional background are having children later in life, having less and don’t want to reduce their lifestyle due to high costs of upbringing and child.

虽然很多人确实挣3万英镑,这是事实,但还是有很多收入水平较低的人有多个孩子。
这是一个更广泛的问题。那些有专业背景的人生孩子的年龄更晚,他们的孩子更少,也不想因为高昂的养育和孩子的成本而改变他们的生活方式。

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NSFWaccess1998
We'll see a stratification.
Wealthy people will have children because they can afford a nanny/childcare/luxuries, meaning they can continue their career as normal or choose to be a stay at home parent with no financial worries.
Those at the lowest rung of society will have kids because fuck it, why not? I guess the state will pay me (X) per child, the government can't let my kids starve? Right?
The middle/working classes won't have kids, because they'll actually give a shit about raising them properly, and will wait until both parents are in a stable financial position. This will take until their 40's for most young people due to the housing crisis, when once they do inherit mummy's 1m quid house, they'll realise that there are better ways to enjoy your final 30 years than nursing a baby.
The solution will be to import more people, as it already is across basically the whole world (aside from Japan. They're just... suffering).
This will of course be less than ideal.

我们会看到分层。
富人会生孩子,因为他们雇得起保姆/托儿/奢侈品,这意味着他们可以像往常一样继续自己的事业,也可以选择呆在家里,没有经济上的担忧。
那些社会最底层的人会生孩子,因为tmd,为什么不生呢?我猜国家会给我每个孩子X美元,政府不能让我的孩子挨饿?对吧?
但中产阶级/工人阶级不会生孩子,因为他们真的很在乎如何正确地抚养孩子,并且会等到父母双方都有稳定的经济状况。受住房危机影响,大多数年轻人要到40多岁才能做到这一点,一旦他们继承了妈妈价值100万英镑的房子,他们就会意识到,有比照顾孩子更好的方式来享受人生最后的30年。
解决方案将是引入更多的人口,因为基本上全世界都是这样(日本除外。他们只是…硬挨)。
这情况当然不太理想。

merc0526
I agree with all of that and on a personal level I don’t want kids for some of the reasons you stated (as well as major fears over the climate crisis), but I believe that the science suggests that declining birth rates are due to women, at least in western countries, achieving greater education levels and having better career opportunities than ever before.
That’s why it’s predominantly poorer and more religiously fundamentalist countries that still see a high birth rate, where most women fulfill the traditional mother and housewife role and don’t have as much independence and autonomy.

我赞同所有这些,就个人而言,由于你所说的一些原因(以及对气候危机的主要担忧),我不想要孩子,但我相信科学表明,出生率下降是由于女性(至少在西方国家)比以往任何时候都获得了更高的教育水平和更好的职业机会。
这就是为什么大多数贫穷和宗教原教旨主义的国家仍然看到高出生率,在那里大多数妇女履行传统的母亲和家庭主妇的角色,没有那么多的独立性和自主权。

mechanical-monkey
I'm a dad. I can tell you it's a nightmare for childcare. You can't get it and with both me and my partner having to work full time to keep the house afloat. It's desperately needed. It's a fortune for literally anything child related now as well. Honestly even a little bit of help would go long way for most people. I am the only one of my friend group with kids. No one else wants them. Why would they. All of the struggle one way or another with work life balance as it is. Kids just add to that.
Just to be clear. I love my kids and would do anything for them. But it doesn't stop it from being the single hardest and financially draining thing I've ever done.

我是一名父亲。我可以告诉你,带孩子简直是噩梦。你做不到,我和我的爱人都要全职工作来维持家庭的运转。这是迫切需要的。这对任何与孩子有关的东西来说都是一笔巨款。老实说,即使是一点点的帮助对大多数人来说也有很大的帮助。我是我朋友圈里唯一有孩子的人。没有人想要小孩。他们为什么要呢。所有人都在以这样或那样的方式努力平衡工作和生活。要孩子只是雪上加霜。
先说清楚。我爱我的孩子,愿意为他们做任何事。但这并不能阻止它成为我做过的最困难、最耗钱的事情。

NorthernSoul1977
It's almost like being asked to abandon community and family for the persuit of independent wealth, as has been the trend for half a century, has been to our collective detriment.
Back in the day kids were raised by a family. The elderly looked after the young while the parents worked or looked after the house. It was mutually beneficial.
Now the elderly are alone in homes. The kids are being looked after by hired childcare and the parents are working themselves to the bone to get by.

这几乎就像被要求放弃社区和家庭,去追求独立的财富,半个世纪以来一直是一种趋势,这对我们的集体有害。
在过去,孩子是由一个家庭抚养长大的。当父母工作或看家时,老人带小孩。这对双方都有利。
现在老人独自一人住在家里。孩子们由雇来的保姆照看,父母们都拼命工作勉强度日。

NiceCornflakes
This.
Also retirement age is pushing 70, my mum and her friends would love to spend time with their grandkids (they’re all around 60 years old), but they can’t because they themselves still have to work full-time.

正是如此。
此外,退休年龄快到70岁了,我妈妈和她的朋友们很想和他们的孙子孙女们在一起(他们都在60岁左右),但他们不能,因为他们自己还得全职工作。

TeaDependant
Around me the nurseries in a very cheap part of the country, for 5 full days a week, cost around £15k a year. It's about the same for private schooling.
Every working parent without free childcare through family or whatever is practically expected to afford the equivalent of private school. It's ridiculous.

在我周围,一个非常便宜的地区的托儿所,一周5天,一年的费用约为1.5万英镑。私立学校的情况也差不多。
每个没有通过家庭或其他方式获得免费托儿服务的有工作的父母,实际上都被期望负担得起相当于私立学校的费用。这是荒谬的。

Comfortable-Class576
This won’t change until working families get free full-time childcare and houses are affordable again. It’s crazy that most young couples in London can’t even afford a second bedroom. Young people can’t find stability until they’re in their 30s or mid-30s, and by then, when they try to have kids, they face fertility issues that they wouldn’t have had at 28.
I know loads of people who’d love to have 2 or 3 kids but stick with one because they can’t afford more or struggle to conceive in their 40s, and that’s probably cutting the number of babies in half.

这种情况不会改变,直到工薪家庭获得免费的全日制儿童保育,住房价格再次能够承受。伦敦的大多数年轻夫妇甚至买不起两居室,这太疯狂了。年轻人要到30多岁或35多岁才能找到稳定的生活,到那时,当他们想要孩子的时候,他们会面临28岁时不会遇到的生育问题。
我知道很多人其实想要2到3个孩子,但却坚持只要1个,因为他们负担不起更多的孩子,或者在40多岁的时候很难怀孕,这可能会使孩子的数量减少一半。

TheCotofPika
I don't think even free full time childcare is a good incentive. Why have children and then never see them other than breakfast and bedtime, then spend your weekend doing homework and chores?
I feel "compensation" and reduced working hours for parents would go down better.

我认为即使是免费的全职托儿服务也不是一个好的激励。为什么有了孩子之后,除了吃早饭和睡觉时间,就再也见不到他们了,然后把周末都花在做家务上?
我觉得“补偿”和减少父母的工作时间会更好。

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thingsniceandgreen
The Industrial Revolution oversaw the biggest population boom ever, and like every boom there’s a bust. This is it. Humanity has reached a peak. What goes up must come down.
I feel like if we start to force people to have babies just for the economy then let’s face it Capitalism is just a Ponzi scheme and we should not expect a never ending cycle of profit and growth and maybe change our ways to a more circular economy instead.

工业革命见证了有史以来最大的人口增长,就像每一次繁荣都有萧条一样。这就是。人类已经达到了顶峰。有起必有落。
我觉得如果我们只是为了经济而强迫人们生孩子,那么让我们面对现实吧,资本主义就是一个庞氏骗局,我们应该不要期待一个永无止境的利润和增长的循环,也许我们应该改变我们的方式,转向更加循环的经济。

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total_reddit_addict
Everyone here blaming economic and financial reasons for many of us not wanting kids. I mean sure, but let's be honest the main reason is they're fucking exhausting and annoying.

这里的每个人都把很多人不想要孩子归咎于经济和财务原因。我的意思是,确实,但说实话,主要原因是他们太累了,很烦恼。

UJ_Reddit
I’m not sure if it’s fair to bring a kid into this shit storm

我不确定把一个孩子带进这场该死的风暴中是否公平

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