网帖翻译

This EU powerhouse is committing ‘economic suicide’ – who’s to blame

原标题：这个欧盟强国正在进行“经济自杀”——这该怪谁呢？

Germany’s growth is tanking deeper and deeper, and its economy minister alternates between sugar-coating and scapegoating

德国的经济增长下滑得越来越深，而其经济部长时而粉饰太平，时而找替罪羊。

Alexey Miller, the longstanding head of Russian energy giant Gazprom, is not known for rhetorical excess. That’s why his recent public statement at the St. Petersburg International Gas Forum should make Europeans, and especially Germans, prick up their ears.

长期担任俄罗斯能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司总裁的阿列克谢·米勒并不以夸夸其谈著称。这就是为什么他最近在圣彼得堡国际天然气论坛上的公开声明应该让欧洲人，尤其是德国人竖起耳朵的原因。

Miller explained that the “artificial destruction of demand” on the EU gas market – that is, Western sanctions and a little US-UK-Ukrainian pipeline bombing “among friends” – has led to a continuing “deindustrialization” of Western Europe that will disrupt its economies “for at least a decade,” in the best-case scenario.

米勒解释说，对欧盟天然气市场的“人为的破坏需求”——即西方的制裁和美英乌“朋友之间”的管道小轰炸——已经导致西欧持续的“去工业化”，在最好的情况下，这将扰乱其经济“至少十年”。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

According to more pessimistic expert assessments, we are witnessing the “economic suicide of Europe,” Miller added, with its “locomotive” – a traditional byname for Germany – now the continent’s “sick man.” And that, Miller stressed, is a diagnosis “with which one can agree.”

根据更为悲观的专家评估，我们正在目睹“欧洲经济自杀”，米勒补充说，德国的传统绰号“火车头”现在成了欧洲大陆的“病夫”。米勒强调，这是一种“人们可以同意的”诊断。

Context always matters. Due to Berlin’s absurd decision to enthusiastically join the US proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, the German-Russian relationship is at its lowest point since, literally, 1945. So, it may be tempting for Germans to dismiss Miller’s tough words as less than obxtive. But they would be wrong because he has facts on his side.

背景总是很重要的。由于柏林方面做出了荒唐的决定，热情地加入了美国在乌克兰针对俄罗斯的代理人战争，德俄关系正处于自1945年以来的最低点。因此，德国人可能很容易将米勒的强硬言辞视为不够客观。但他们可能错了，因为他有事实依据。

Robert Habeck, Germany’s Green minister of the economy, has just had to lower his growth prognosis for 2024 as a whole. So much, in fact, that, instead of the minuscule increase of 0.3% – yes, you read that right: that’s what’s considered good news now in Germany, if it happens, which it does not – the country is looking at a minus of 0.2%. Germany’s economy is not merely stagnant, it is shrinking. When Berlin was still dreaming about that lavish 0.3% growth that is not actually happening, government representatives were speaking of a turning point. Well, there has been a turn alright, another one for the worse.

德国经济部长罗伯特·哈贝克刚刚不得不下调了他对2024年整体经济增长的预测。事实上，下调的如此之多，以至于德国的经济增长不是0.3%的微小增长——是的，你没看错：这在德国被认为是好消息，如果这种情况发生了，实际上并没有——而是0.2%的负增长。德国经济不仅停滞不前，而且还在萎缩。当柏林还在梦想着0.3%的经济增长时，政府代表已经在谈论转折点了。好吧，曾经有一个转折点，好的，另一个更糟。

What makes this much worse is that it is not an outlier event or a temporary phenomenon but the new, miserable German normal. Or, as German economists put it, their country is stuck in a “deep structural crisis.”

更糟糕的是，这不是一个异常事件，也不是一个暂时现象，而是德国悲惨的新常态。或者，正如德国经济学家所说，他们的国家陷入了“深度结构性危机”。

Even the staunchly NATO-philic and Russophobic Economist came to the same conclusions last summer already. Asking (rhetorically) if Germany was “the sick man of Europe,” the journal found that, since 2018, Berlin has been presiding over an economic “laggard.”

就连坚定的亲北约和恐俄派经济学家去年夏天也得出了同样的结论。在询问德国是否是“欧洲病夫”时，该杂志发现，自2018年以来，柏林一直是经济“落后者”的主导者。

Before that, Germany was doing quite well. After the mid-2000s, its economy had grown – cumulatively – by 24%, while Britain added 22% and France only 18%. But, as of last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted German cumulative growth of only 8% for the period of 2019 to 2029, while it forecast 15% for the Netherlands and 17% for the US. And the way things are going, the IMF may well have been too optimistic.

在此之前，德国的表现相当不错。2005年前后，其经济累计增长24%，而英国增长22%，法国仅增长18%。但是，截至去年，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，2019年至2029年，德国的累计增长率仅为8%，而荷兰和美国的预测分别为15%和17%。从目前的形势来看，国际货币基金组织可能过于乐观了。

Germany’s deep economic crisis has many causes. They include an aging population; weak digitalization; a surfeit of bureaucracy (but then that has always been the case); corporate taxes that some consider too high (but then someone will always complain about taxes); the country’s failure to overcome the Covid shock more quickly; the massively deteriorating relationship with China, a key market for Germany in general and an indispensable factor in the making of the “good times” before 2018; Germany’s dependency on global supply chains and markets beyond China, which means it is hard hit by the current fracturing of the globalized economy; the insane decision to abandon nuclear energy and, lixed to that, the failure of a perfectly messed-up “green transition.”

德国严重的经济危机有很多原因。其中包括人口老龄化；虚弱的数字化;官僚主义泛滥（但情况总是如此）；有些人认为公司税太高（但总有人会抱怨税收）；该国未能更快地克服新冠疫情带来的冲击；与中国的关系大幅恶化，中国是德国的一个关键市场，也是创造2018年之前“美好时光”的不可或缺的因素；德国依赖全球供应链和中国以外的市场，这意味着它受到当前全球化经济破裂的沉重打击；放弃核能的疯狂决定，以及与之相关的完全混乱的“绿色转型”的失败。

Yet only the lazy assemble a grab-bag of causal factors and end their analysis with a simple “all of the above.” To do better requires, as a minimum, identifying the most crucial factors. There can be no doubt that two of them are geopolitical: the disruption of the relationship with China and the fact that energy is too expensive, that is more expensive than in many competitor economies. As German experts are acknowledging, this makes producing in Germany “persistently less attractive” than other locations. Put simply, it does not pay any longer to make stuff in Germany. And the reason for that economically lethal state of affairs is well known, even if German politicians and mainstream media won’t admit it: Berlin has cut its economy off from inexpensive Russian gas and oil. And we need to stress the word “inexpensive” because Germans do, of course, still use both. Only they buy them from intermediaries, so they are now expensive.

然而，只有懒惰者才会把各种原因拼凑在一起，并以一个简单的“以上都有”来结束他们的分析。要做得更好，至少需要确定最关键的因素。毫无疑问，其中两个是地缘政治因素：与中国关系的破裂，以及能源过于昂贵的事实，比许多竞争对手的经济体都贵。正如德国专家所承认的那样，这使得在德国生产的吸引力“持续下降”。简而言之，在德国制造产品不再划算。尽管德国政客和主流媒体不愿承认，但造成这种经济致命状况的原因是众所周知的：柏林已经切断了对廉价俄罗斯天然气和石油的依赖。我们需要强调“廉价”这个词，因为德国人当然仍然使用这二者。只是他们从中间商那里购买，所以现在很贵。

None of this had to happen. As late as at the beginning of 2022, Berlin could have chosen to promote a reasonable compromise between Russia and the West, which was what was really at stake in the crisis over Ukraine. Back then, especially together with France, Germany could still have charted a course sufficiently independent of the hardliners in the US, with their warmongering camp followers in Eastern Europe and Britain. Berlin could have stopped the insane drive to all-out proxy war in the delusional pursuit of a “strategic defeat” for Russia. If Germany had done so, Ukraine would be much better off, and so would the whole of the EU and Germany as well.

这一切本不应该发生。直到2022年初，柏林还可以选择推动俄罗斯和西方之间达成合理的妥协，这才是乌克兰危机真正的关键所在。当时，尤其是与法国一起，德国仍可以制定一条完全独立于美国强硬派（其在东欧和英国的好战阵营追随者）的路线。柏林本可以阻止疯狂地发动全面代理战争，妄想给俄罗斯带来“战略上的失败”。如果德国这么做了，乌克兰会好得多，整个欧盟和德国也会好得多。

All that, however, is water under the bridge. The question now is whether things can be repaired again. There is no reason, unfortunately, for optimism, at least not before fundamental changes in German politics. Under the current government, in any case, it is certain that things will only get worse, because its members display zero interest in even understanding, far less in correcting their mistakes. Take, for instance, Robert Habecks’s very own press conference when he had to announce the fresh recession.

然而，所有这些都是过去式了。现在的问题是情况能否再次修复。不幸的是，我们没有理由乐观，至少在德国政治发生根本变化之前是这样。无论如何，在现任政府的领导下，事情肯定只会变得更糟，因为其成员甚至对理解都没有兴趣，更不用说纠正自己的错误了。以罗伯特·哈贝克在自己的新闻发布会上不得不宣布新一轮衰退为例。

Unsurprisingly, Habeck was less than forthright when presenting the disappointing data. He wrapped the cold, hard facts of general decline and his own failure in a little patriotic rhetoric, pontificating unctuously about Germany’s “strength” and “extraordinary structure.” Yet he only displayed his habit of cherry-picking his numbers and, in effect, tried to mislead his listeners on substance.

不出所料，哈贝克在展示这些令人失望的数据时并不直截了当。他用一点爱国主义的修辞，把普遍衰落和自己失败的冷酷无情的事实包裹起来，虚情假意地吹嘘德国的“实力”和“非凡的结构”。然而，他只是表现出了他喜欢挑选数字的习惯，实际上，他试图在实质问题上误导听众。

His claim, for instance, that Germany is “the third-largest national economy in the world” is so primitive that no minister of the economy should be caught making it. Yes, measured in absolute Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Germany holds that rank; for 2023, the UN even lists it in second place (with adjustment for purchasing power parity).

例如，他声称德国是“世界第三大经济体”，这个说法如此低级，以至于任何经济部长说这话都没问题。是的，以绝对国内生产总值（GDP）衡量，德国占据那个排名；到2023年，联合国甚至将其排在第二位（经购买力平价调整后）。

But that is an essentially meaningless data point. Once you split all that big GDP up per capita, Germany is in eleventh place. Not a terribly useful figure but already more realistic than Habeck’s brute lump sum. Let’s put it like this: If you believe in using total GDP as your benchmark, then you probably also believe German World War I tanks were superior because they were bigger. In reality, they were unwieldy, badly engineered, mis-designed, top-heavy monsters prone to getting stuck in the mud.

但这是一个毫无意义的数据点。一旦把所有这些庞大的GDP拆分到人均，德国排在第11位。这不是一个非常有用的数字，但已经比哈贝克的野蛮总和更现实。让我们这么说吧：如果你相信用GDP总量作为基准，那么你可能也会认为德国一战坦克更优越，因为它们更大。在现实中，它们是笨重的、设计糟糕的、头重脚轻的怪物，容易陷入泥潭。

Habeck did not do better with other aspects of the economy. Take his boast about how innovative Germany is, with a “research landscape hard to equal” and a “vibrant start-up scene.” Really? Interestingly, we do not find much reflection of that fantasy in the Global Innovation Index (GII), a key metric that has just been released for this year. With The Economist, for instance, reporting on it, Habeck’s staffers surely cannot have missed it. The GII shows no leading position for Germany. In Germany’s own high-income group, the top three are Switzerland, Sweden, and the US. In the also relevant upper-middle income section, we find China, Malaysia, and Türkiye. In a simple global ranking, including everyone regardless of income level, Berlin finds itself in ninth place, and inside Europe – sixth. Germany does not figure among the GII’s “leaders in global innovation.” Given its resources, that is not a result to be proud of.

哈贝克在经济的其他方面也没有做得更好。就拿他吹嘘德国的创新能力为例，他说德国拥有“难以匹敌的研究环境”和“充满活力的创业环境”。真的吗? 有趣的是，我们在今年刚刚发布的关键指标全球创新指数（GII）中并没有发现这种幻想的多少反映。比如《经济学人》的报道，哈贝克的员工肯定不会错过。全球创新指数显示，德国并没有处于领先地位。在德国自己的高收入群体中，排名前三的是瑞士、瑞典和美国。在同样相关的中高收入部分，我们发现中国、马来西亚和泰国。在一个简单的全球排名中，无论收入水平如何，柏林都排在第九位，在欧洲内部排名第六。德国不在全球创新指数的“全球创新领导者”之列。鉴于其资源，这不是一个值得骄傲的结果。

Like a lazy student trying to bluff his way through an exam, Habeck could not resist fibbing about wages and consumption either. Citing figures on recent, modest increases in salaries, he displayed economic illiteracy by surmising that consumer spending will “certainly” go up as well and boost the economy as a whole. But before wage earners start consuming – instead of saving – more, they must have confidence in the future.

就像一个懒惰的学生想要通过考试一样，哈贝克也忍不住在工资和消费上撒些小谎。他引用最近工资适度增长的数据，推测消费支出“肯定”也会上升，并推动整体经济，这显示出他对经济一无所知。但在工薪阶层开始增加消费（而不是储蓄）之前，他们必须对未来有信心。

Yet – lo and behold – that is precisely what many Germans do not have. According to a recent poll conducted by the prestigious accounting firm Ernst and Young (EY) and reported in Der Spiegel, more than a third of Germans (37%) now restrict themselves to buying only what is strictly necessary; large numbers are cutting down on luxuries (58%), home deliveries shopping (49%), gym memberships (43%), going to restaurants and cinemas (40%). Even streaming services – a comparatively inexpensive form of entertainment people do not give up easily – are on the chopping board for 34%. On the whole, only every fourth German (26%) believes they will be better off next year, three-quarters think their own financial situation will get worse or, at best, stay the same.

然而，你瞧，这正是许多德国人所不具备的。著名会计师事务所安永最近进行的一项民意调查显示，超过三分之一的德国人（37%）现在只购买绝对必要的东西；很多人减少了奢侈品消费（58%）、送货上门购物（49%）、健身房会员（43%）、去餐馆和电影院（40%）。即使是流媒体服务——一种相对便宜的娱乐形式，人们不会轻易放弃——也有34%的人将其列入削减清单。总体而言，只有四分之一的德国人（26%）相信他们明年的生活会更好，四分之三的人认为他们自己的财务状况会变得更糟，或者充其量保持不变。

This is the picture of an economically deeply depressed society. And for good reason. Habeck’s frequent cheap appeals to not fall victim to pessimism must strike many Germans as mockery. A man with the extremely comfortable salary and lifestyle of a German minister displays his egotism and his crass lack of empathy for the citizens he is supposed to work for and take care of.

这是一个经济极度萧条的社会的写照。这是有原因的。哈贝克频繁地呼吁人们不要成为悲观主义的牺牲品，这句廉价的话一定会让许多德国人觉得是一种嘲弄。一个拥有极其舒适的薪水和德国部长般的生活方式的人，表现出他的自我中心，以及对他应该为之工作和照顾的公民缺乏同情心。

Indeed, it is even worse. Like many of the country's politicians, Habeck, one of the greatest and most obvious failures of German postwar politics, has developed a paranoid and/or bad-faith, neo-McCarthyite habit of blaming Russia and of accusing any domestic challenge of being in the service, intentionally or not, of Moscow. He demonstrated exactly this paranoia and bad faith again when very mildly and reasonably challenged by a mainstream German journalist about his over-optimistic depiction of Germany’s strengths.

事实上，情况甚至更糟。哈贝克是德国战后政治中最大、最明显的失败者之一。和德国的许多政治家一样，他养成了一种偏执和/或不诚实的新麦卡锡主义习惯，指责俄罗斯，指责任何国内挑战都是在有意无意地为莫斯科服务。当一位德国主流记者非常温和而合理地质疑他对德国实力的过度乐观描述时，他再次表现出了这种偏执和恶意。

In response, he offered no substantial answer at all, but, instead, publicly disparaged the journalist for not taking enough care of the “intention” behind his question. Which, according to Habeck, somehow betrayed the signature style of dark forces trying to tear Germany down, that is, in other words, Russia, of course.

作为回应，他根本没有给出实质性的答案，而是公开贬低这位记者没有充分考虑其问题背后的“意图”。根据哈贝克的说法，这在某种程度上暴露了试图摧毁德国的黑暗势力的标志性风格，换句话说，当然是俄罗斯。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

The German minister of the economy presides over a crash site of failed plans. His reaction is to deny that reality, while, at the same time, blame it on what, under Stalinism, would have been called “wreckers” and “traitors” conspiring with outside enemies. Robert Habeck is not only a failure but also an extremely dangerous, perhaps deranged man, who still wants to be chancellor. For Germany’s sake – and I am writing this as a German – German voters must keep him out of that office. He has done enough damage already.

德国经济部长主持了一个失败计划的崩溃现场。他的反应是否认这一事实，与此同时，将其归咎于在斯大林主义下会被称为“破坏者”和“叛徒”与外部敌人密谋的人。罗伯特·哈贝克不仅是个失败者，而且是一个极其危险的、或许是精神错乱的人，他还想当上总理。为了德国——我是以德国人的身份写这篇文章的——德国选民必须把他赶出这个职位。他造成的破坏已经够多了。

If he should ever read this text, he will surely blame it as well on the big bad Russians. But here’s a newsflash for you, Robert, between countrymen: It’s all on you, and only you. No country that has you in government even needs outside opponents to be in a mess.

如果他读了这篇文章，他肯定也会把责任推到大坏蛋俄罗斯人身上。但是，罗伯特，作为同胞，我有一条快讯要告诉你：一切都取决于你，而且只取决于你。任何有你执政的国家都不需要外部对手就会陷入混乱。