韩国是否应该发展自己的核武库?他们被三个敌对的核大国包围。为什么韩国至今没有实施核计划?
2024-10-24 吕洞宾! 6474
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CaiLei Follow
After the reunification of South Korea and North Korea, they had their own nuclear arsenal.
North Korea has only one hypothetical enemy - Japan. (You only need to pay attention to the direction of each North Korean missile test launch to understand)
The North Koreans could launch missiles into the stratosphere and then descend vertically at supersonic speeds, a method that could quickly penetrate Japan's missile defenses. This method is similar to the "Tathagata Divine Palm".
North Korea's nuclear weapons are not aimed at South Korea, and South Koreans do not need to be Self-motivated (don't flatter yourself).

韩朝统一后,他们就都有了自己的核武器库。
朝鲜只有一个假想敌人——日本。(只要留意朝鲜每次导弹试射的方向就能明白)
朝鲜人可以将导弹发射到平流层,然后以超音速垂直下降,这种方法可以快速突破日本的导弹防御系统。这种方法类似于“如来神掌”。
朝鲜的核武器不是针对韩国的,韩国人也不需要自以为是(别自以为是了)。

North Korea is not rich. North Koreans do not need expensive missiles to defeat the South Korean army, only a few pistols are enough.
Blue House raid - Wikipedia
It’s not that I look down on Korea’s sissy army. South Korea's armed forces are simply no match for North Korea's armed forces without the intervention of the U.S. armed forces.
Of course, if the US military intervenes in the conflict on the Korean Peninsula, China will also intervene.
But if the United States and China do not intervene in the affairs of the Korean Peninsula, then there is no doubt that North Korea will defeat South Korea and completely unify the Korean Peninsula.

朝鲜并不富裕,朝鲜人不需要昂贵的导弹就能打败韩国军队,几把手枪就够了。
青瓦台突袭-维基百科(链接)
不是我看不起韩国娘娘腔的军队,没有美军的介入,韩国军队根本就不是朝鲜军队的对手。
当然,如果美军介入朝鲜半岛冲突,中国也会介入。
但如果美国和中国不介入朝鲜半岛事务,那么朝鲜打败韩国,彻底统一朝鲜半岛是毫无疑问的。

Mchue
This person that raised this question got it all wrong. South Koreans had been a very nice country surrounded by countries that can protect them all along, until they made a stupid mistake by going to election by just tossing a coin.

提出这个问题的人完全搞错了。韩国一直是一个非常好的国家,周围都是可以保护他们的国家,直到他们犯了一个愚蠢的错误,用抛硬币的方式进行选举。

Alan Brown
Mexico is next to the most war loving country in the world and there has been talks of invading Mexico. I think Mexico should develop its own nukes before they are being invaded

墨西哥身处世界上最好战的国家旁边,而且也一直有墨西哥要被入侵的传闻。我认为墨西哥应该在被入侵之前开发自己的核武器。

KK Ang
NK thousands of units of artillery is enough to cover whole of Seoul. Why would they try to nuke SK that is just 35miles from the Korean border? There will be nuclear fallout.

朝鲜数千门火炮足以覆盖整个首尔。他们为什么要对距离朝鲜边境仅35英里的韩国首都进行核打击?这会产生核辐射的。

Traveling Scholar
Ah yes, because Mig-15s will totally beat KF-16s and F-35s. WW2 era frigates will totally beat AEGIS destroyers. T-55s will totally beat K2 Black Panthers. If that is considered advanced and powerful technology by you Chinese… well, now I know we Americans have nothing to fear from China.

啊,是的,因为米格 15 会完全击败 KF-16 和 F-35。二战时期的护卫舰会完全击败宙斯盾驱逐舰。T-55 会完全击败 K2、黑豹。如果你们中国人认为这是先进而强大的技术...那么,现在我知道我们美国人不必害怕中国了。

Sketchy Kid
USS Pueblo (AGER-2) - Wikipedia
The answer to your questions is - YES
Here's one more example for you:
Let me remind you. North Korea is a nuclear power and these guys on a photo are “sandal wearing goat herders”.

普韦布洛号驱逐舰 - 维基百科
你的问题的答案是 - 是的
这里还有一个例子:
让我提醒你。朝鲜是一个核大国,照片上的这些人是“穿凉鞋的牧羊人”。
注:普韦布洛号驱逐舰是一艘旗帜级环境研究船,在第二次世界大战期间投入使用,随后于 1967年被改装为间谍船...


Halfman Huang
I think, you hasn’t figured out one thing, fighter drones and suicide drones have already changed situation, it give the low military tech countries a cheap air force, and the most important thing, the Battlefield Perception Capability they lacked in the past.
That means, in the future, not only the US army can call the air support, Afghan shepherds also can. This leveled the tactical ability of the both side, The theory of air supremacy has been completely shattered.
So, does the US soldiers already prepared to been air striked by Afghan shepherds or North Koreans in combats?

我想,你没搞清楚一件事,战斗机和自杀式无人机已经改变了现状,让军事技术水平低的国家拥有了廉价的空军,最重要的是,他们拥有了过去所缺乏的战场感知能力。
这意味着,未来不仅美军可以呼叫空中支援,阿富汗牧羊人也可以。这拉平了双方的战术能力,空中优势理论被彻底击碎。
那么,美军士兵是否已经做好了在战斗中遭到阿富汗牧羊人或朝鲜人空袭的准备?

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


All about Korea · Follow

Should South Korea also have nuclear weapons?
Agree: 66.8%
opposed: 31.8%

韩国也应该拥有核武器吗?
同意:66.8%
反对:31.8%

Should South Korea withhold its own nuclear weapons?
very agree: 29.8%
agreeable: 26.7%
opposing: 16.7%
very opposite: 24.0
I don't know: 2.7%
Throughout the past, public opinion supporting that Korea should become nuclear-armed has never fallen below a majority
Just because of the political situation, diplomatic situation, and economic issues, Korea is not arming itself with nuclear weapons, It actually attempted to develop nuclear weapons 50 years ago, and is currently not proceeding with it, but if we decide to do so, we will complete nuclear armament within an extremely short time (expected within about a year) can do
This public opinion is based on concerns about North Korea's nuclear armament and doubts and skepticism about whether the nuclear umbrella will work and whether it will have deterrent power
It is also based on the idea of increasing South Korea's cards against pressure and threats from neighboring countries, which is inherent in the fundamental distrust of the nuclear umbrella, "The U.S. will not give up South Korea for fear of North Korea, but will it protect Seoul at the risk of an all-out nuclear war with China?"
This is an answer that no one can say for sure, and an unsettling question that cannot be resolved, Unless North Korea and China evaporate or the threat is comprehensively resolved, public opinion on South Korea's nuclear armament will continue to exist

韩国是否应保留自己的核武器?
非常同意:29.8%
赞同:26.7%
反对:16.7%
非常反对:24.0
不知道:2.7%
纵观历史,支持韩国应该拥有核武器的舆论从未低于多数。
只是因为政治形势、外交形势和经济问题,韩国并没有用核武器武装自己,实际上它50年前就试图发展核武器,目前没有继续进行,但如果决定这样做,我们将在极短的时间内(预计一年左右)完成核武装。
这种舆论是基于对朝鲜核武装的担忧,以及对核保护伞是否有效、是否具有威慑力的怀疑和质疑。
也是基于增加韩国对抗邻国压力和威胁的底牌的想法,这是对核保护伞的根本不信任所固有的,“美国不会因为害怕朝鲜而放弃韩国,但它会冒着与中国发生全面核战争的风险来保护首尔吗?”
这是一个没有人能确定的答案,也是一个无法解决的令人不安的问题,除非朝鲜和中国消失或威胁得到全面解决,否则公众对韩国核武器的舆论将继续存在。

In fact, South Korea had attempted its own nuclear armament program. Since 1970, the Korean government has continued to carry out secret projects, but In 1974, when India succeeded in a nuclear test, U.S. officials and CIA agents followed the heads of state ministries, including the Blue House, the Ministry of National Defense, and the Ministry of Science and Technology, as well as nuclear armament-related facilities such as the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, the Defense Research Institute, and the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology. According to Chief Oh Won-chul, the move was made to avoid U.S. checks. It is said that it was divided into seven projects, allowing information judgment only at Cheong Wa Dae(presidential palace), the control tower

事实上,韩国也曾尝试过自己的核武器计划。1970年以后,韩国政府继续秘密进行核试验,但1974年印度成功进行核试验后,美国官员和CIA特工开始严密监视青瓦台、国防部、科技部等国家部委首脑以及韩国原子能研究院、国防研究院、韩国科学技术研究院等核武器相关设施负责人。据吴元哲局长称,韩国的核开发被分为7个项目,只允许青瓦台进行情报判断,据说此举是为了避开美国的检查。

In 1975, the Park Chung-hee administration signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and the construction of Wolseong No. 1, the Candu reactor in question, was safely started. The following year, in 1976, Park Chung-hee surrendered to U.S. pressure that "if he goes to the very end, he has no choice but to impose decisive sanctions." Former U.S. Ambassador Donald Gragg described the U.S. way of putting pressure on North Korea in 2011, saying, "It was just like the U.S. trying to contain its nuclear development." In addition, former Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil uated that the U.S. intelligence was not excellent, but that "Korean spies told the CIA." At the same time, the reprocessing agreement with France was broken, and by 1977, nuclear development had ceased. Former U.S. Ambassador Donald Gragg has since affirmed that there has been no attempt by South Korea to arm itself with nuclear weapons. In the meantime, the level of pressure from the United States was enough to destroy the Korea-U.S. mutual defense treaty

1975年,朴正熙政府签署了《不扩散核武器条约》,月城一号核反应堆(即坎杜反应堆)安全开工。次年,也就是1976年,朴正熙屈服于美国的压力,称“如果坚持到底,就别无选择,只能承受决定性制裁”。美国前大使唐纳德·格拉格在2011年描述美国对韩国施压的方式时说:“这就像美国试图遏制朝鲜核开发一样”。此外,韩国前总理金钟泌评价说,美国的情报并不完善,但“韩国间谍将情报告诉了美国中央情报局”。与此同时,与法国的核后处理协议被打破,到1977年,核开发已经停止。美国前大使唐纳德·格拉格此后断言,韩国从未试图拥有核武器。与此同时,美国的压力足以摧毁韩美共同防御条约。

Because of this strong pressure from the United States, we were unable to proceed further with the development of nuclear weapons and reached the present.
Currently we are weighing the real/potential threats and what we can lose
Unless there is a strong change in the situation, we will not give up our stance on denuclearization because the economic prosperity we would lose is too great
But what about China?
If both sides of the Straits are really on fire, we might proceed with nuclear armament, Of course, that's just an assumption... it shouldn't happen

因为美国的这种强大压力,我们无法继续发展核武器,只能落到现在的地步。
目前我们正在权衡现实/潜在威胁和可能失去的东西。
除非情况发生重大变化,否则我们不会放弃无核化的立场,因为我们将失去的经济繁荣太大了。
但中国呢?
如果海峡两岸真的战火纷飞,我们可能会继续进行核军备,当然,这只是假设...不应该发生。

Albert Dye Follow
The American elite will not allow it.
If South Korea had their own nuclear deterrent they could start to act independently from the whims of the American elite and this outcome could be tolerated.
Every country with an America military base has basically given up it sovereignty, these bases are used to project American power across the globe.
Name one non-American NATO member airbase in America?

美国精英不会允许这种事情发生。
如果韩国拥有自己的核威慑力量,他们就可以开始独立行动,不受美国精英的左右,这种结果是可以容忍的。
每个拥有美国军事基地的国家基本上都放弃了主权,这些基地被用来向全球投射美国的力量。
说出一个非美国的北约成员国在美国拥有空军基地的国家?

Albert Dye
Not so, the ordinary people don’t want them .. it’s the only corrupt elite that welcome them in with open arms.
I for one don’t want to give this corrupt organisation (NATO) 2% of our GDP so a bunch of crooks can have a good life at our expense.

事实并非如此,普通民众不想要他们...只有腐败的精英才会张开双臂欢迎他们。
就我个人而言,我不想把我们GDP的2% 交给这个腐败的组织(北约),让一群骗子以牺牲我们为代价过上好日子。

Traveling Scholar
Mate, every American base is there by invitation of the host country. Are you actually this dense?

兄弟,每个美国基地都是受东道国邀请建立的。你真的这么蠢吗?

Youngin Pyo Follow
Yeah, SK should, but international politics is not that simple so that SK is free to make the decision. If I am the decision-maker, I would go in that direction. I think SK will go in that direction in the end if any country uses nukes, SK would have a legilimate circumstance for that decision. For example, the circumstance would be created if Russia uses nukes in Ukraine.

是的,韩国应该这么做,但国际政治并不那么简单,韩国无法自由做出决定。如果我是决策者,我会朝那个方向走。我认为,如果任何国家使用核武器,韩国最终都会朝那个方向走,韩国将有一个合法的决策环境。例如,如果俄罗斯在乌克兰使用核武器,就会产生这种情况。

Joseph Boyle Follow
South Korea does not primarily because it works within an alliance structure which serves its defense needs and does not require domestic development of nuclear weapons.
The main pressure towards it is the strong competitive feelings within East Asia. If North Korea and China have nuclear weapons, naturally many South Koreans will feel they should too. In turn, many Chinese feel they should compete with the US nuclear arsenal.
However regional arms race is an expensive and ultimately unproductive situation. This is why so many regions have made their own NWFZ treaties.
Nuclear-weapon-free zone - Wikipedia

韩国之所以不这么做,主要是因为它在一个满足其国防需求的联盟结构内工作,不需要国内发展核武器。
对它的主要压力是东亚内部强烈的竞争情绪。如果朝鲜和中国拥有核武器,自然许多韩国人也会觉得他们也应该拥有。反过来,许多中国人觉得他们应该与美国的核武库竞争。
然而,区域军备竞赛是一种代价高昂且最终没有成效的局面。这就是为什么这么多地区都制定了自己的无核武器区条约。
无核武器区 - 维基百科(链接)

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Sameer Dewars Follow
The decision to develop a nuclear arsenal is a complex and highly sensitive matter. While I can provide some general perspectives, it's important to note that official government policies and decisions are subject to change, and my knowledge is based on information available up until September 2021.
South Korea, known as the Republic of Korea, has not pursued the development of its own nuclear arsenal despite being surrounded by three nuclear-armed powers (North Korea, China, and Russia) for several reasons:
1.Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): South Korea is a signatory to the NPT, an international treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. As a member of the NPT, South Korea has committed itself to the treaty's principles, including the pursuit of peaceful nuclear energy and disarmament.
2.U.S. Nuclear Umbrella: South Korea has had a security alliance with the United States since the Korean War. Under this alliance, the U.S. provides extended deterrence, which means that in the event of an attack, the U.S. would defend South Korea using its own nuclear capabilities. This arrangement has provided South Korea with a measure of security and has contributed to its decision not to pursue an independent nuclear arsenal.

决定发展核武库是一个复杂且高度敏感的问题。虽然我可以提供一些一般性的观点,但必须注意的是,官方的政府政策和决定可能会发生变化,我的信息基于截至2021年9月的信息。
韩国,即大韩民国,尽管被三个核武大国(朝鲜、中国和俄罗斯)包围,但并未发展自己的核武库,原因如下:
1.《不扩散核武器条约》:韩国是《不扩散核武器条约》的签署国,该条约是一项旨在防止核武器扩散的国际条约。作为《不扩散核武器条约》的成员国,韩国致力于遵守该条约的原则,包括追求和平核能和裁军。
2.美国核保护伞:自朝鲜战争以来,韩国一直与美国建立了安全联盟。根据这一联盟,美国提供延伸威慑,这意味着一旦韩国遭到攻击,美国将使用自己的核能力保卫韩国。这一安排为韩国提供了一定程度的安全,并促使韩国决定不寻求独立的核武库。

3.Regional Stability and Global Non-Proliferation Norms: Pursuing nuclear weapons could have significant implications for regional stability and non-proliferation efforts. South Korea's decision not to develop nuclear weapons aligns with global efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and maintain stability in Northeast Asia.
4.Economic and Technological Considerations: Developing and maintaining a nuclear arsenal is a costly endeavor. South Korea has instead focused on economic development and technological advancements in other sectors, such as information technology, automotive industry, and other high-tech industries. These sectors have contributed to South Korea's economic growth and global competitiveness.

3.地区稳定和全球不扩散规范:追求核武器可能对地区稳定和不扩散努力产生重大影响。韩国不发展核武器的决定符合全球防止核武器扩散和维持东北亚稳定的努力。
4.经济和技术考虑:开发和维护核武库是一项昂贵的事业。韩国转而专注于经济发展和其他领域的技术进步,如信息技术、汽车工业和其他高科技产业。这些行业为韩国的经济增长和全球竞争力做出了贡献。

It's worth noting that public opinion in South Korea regarding nuclear weapons development has been divided. Some argue that South Korea should have its own nuclear deterrent for self-defense, especially considering the security threats in the region. Others emphasize the importance of maintaining a non-nuclear policy and relying on diplomatic and non-military means to address security concerns.
It's essential to recognize that the security dynamics and geopolitical considerations in the region can evolve over time. South Korea's position on nuclear weapons could be subject to change based on various factors, including shifts in the security environment and the country's assessment of its national security interests.
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值得注意的是,韩国公众对核武器发展的看法存在分歧。一些人认为,韩国应该拥有自己的核威慑力量进行自卫,尤其是考虑到该地区的安全威胁。另一些人则强调维持无核政策以及依靠外交和非军事手段解决安全问题的重要性。
必须认识到,该地区的安全动态和地缘政治考虑会随着时间的推移而演变。韩国对核武器的立场可能会因各种因素而发生变化,包括安全环境的变化和该国对国家安全利益的评估。
希望你喜欢它,如果想看到更多这样的内容,请不要忘记关注和点赞,祝你有美好的一天

Jiacheng Zhang Follow
Players in East Asia all have nukes, while the puppets don’t. Guess who doesn’t allow the puppets to gain too sharp teeth and claws? The other players, or the player who takes the whip of those puppets?

东亚的玩家都有核弹,而傀儡没有。猜猜谁不让傀儡长出太锋利的牙齿和爪子?其他玩家,还是拿着傀儡鞭子的玩家?

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