网帖翻译

The US blamed Russia even though it now claims it knew all along that “rogue” Ukrainians were the perpetrators

美国指责俄罗斯，尽管它现在声称自己一直都知道“流氓”乌克兰人是肇事者

Two years ago, the Nord Stream gas pipelines were destroyed in an economic and environmental terrorist attack. The explosions severed a key economic connection between Western Europe and Russia, contributing to the de-industrialization of the EU and intensifying Russia’s economic reorientation towards China and India. The geopolitical ramifications were immense, yet we know very little about what really happened. How is this possible?

两年前，北溪天然气管道在一次经济和环境恐怖袭击中被摧毁。爆炸切断了西欧和俄罗斯之间的重要经济联系，导致欧盟工业化衰退，并加剧了俄罗斯向中国和印度的经济转型。地缘政治影响巨大，但我们对事件的真相知之甚少。这怎么可能呢？

The US and its NATO allies initially insisted that Russia was certainly the perpetrator, and their stenographers in the media reported confidently that “everything is pointing to Russia.” No evidence was presented, yet NATO even suggested the attack on its critical infrastructure could trigger collective defense under Article 5. Besides indirectly threatening the world’s largest nuclear power with war, the US-led military bloc also used the attack on Nord Stream to justify escalating the conflict in Ukraine and to further militarize the Baltic Sea and other seas. Strengthening NATO’s ability to protect undersea infrastructure was also an important argument for why Finland and Sweden should join NATO.

美国及其北约盟友最初坚称俄罗斯是袭击者，其媒体速记员也自信地报道说“一切都指向俄罗斯”。虽然没有拿出任何证据，但北约甚至暗示，针对其关键基础设施的袭击可能触发第五条规定的集体防御。除了间接向世界最大核大国发出战争威胁外，以美国为首的军事集团还利用北溪管道袭击事件作为升级乌克兰冲突、进一步军事化波罗的海和其他海域的理由。加强北约保护海底基础设施的能力也是芬兰和瑞典应该加入北约的重要理由。

The story of Russia blowing up its own pipeline could rely on a strong consensus as all dissent to the narrative could be dismissed as repeating the Kremlin’s talking points. Similar stories such as Russia’s alleged continued bombing of a nuclear power plant under its own control or Russia attacking the Kremlin with drones did not make any sense either. Yet, in the absence of common sense, the political and media elites could explain that this was straight out of the “Russian playbook.”

俄罗斯炸毁自己输油管道的故事可能需要达成强烈共识，因为所有反对该故事的人都可能被视为重复克里姆林宫的言论。类似的故事，例如俄罗斯据称继续轰炸自己控制下的核电站或俄罗斯用无人机袭击克里姆林宫，也没有任何道理。然而，由于缺乏常识，政治和媒体精英可以解释说，这直接出自“俄罗斯剧本”。

However, reality eventually asserted itself around the time of journalist Seymour Hersh’s article that blamed the US for the attack. Thereafter, the US began to shift the blame to Ukraine. In one of the latest developments, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US knew about the Ukrainian attack in advance and “the CIA warned Zelensky’s office to stop the operation.”

然而，在记者西摩·赫什发表文章指责美国发动袭击时，现实终于显现出来。此后，美国开始将责任推给乌克兰。最新进展之一是《华尔街日报》报道称，美国事先知道了乌克兰的袭击，“中情局警告泽连斯基办公室停止行动”。

It seems highly unlikely that the US was not involved in the attack on Nord Stream, yet the new and upxed narrative is nonetheless interesting as it is an admission that the US knew about it ahead of time. It is an admission that the US and NATO lied to their own populaces and the entire world when they blamed Russia, and then used that lie to escalate the war in Ukraine, militarize the Baltic Sea, and push for further NATO expansion.

美国没有参与北溪管道袭击事件的可能性似乎很小，但新的叙述仍然很有趣，因为它承认美国事先知道此事。它承认美国和北约在指责俄罗斯时欺骗了本国民众和全世界，然后利用这个谎言升级乌克兰战争、军事化波罗的海并推动北约进一步扩张。
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Our lack of knowledge about what really happened to the Nord Stream gas pipelines is the result of the narrative being protected from reality. Blissful ignorance has become the foundation for NATO unity, and facts are thus treated as the great enemy. Yet, as the demand for unity also upholds what can only be described as the Stockholm Syndrome, let’s review how the Nord Stream narrative has been spared an encounter with reality.

我们对北溪天然气管道的真正情况缺乏了解，这是由于叙事被保护而不受现实影响。无知已经成为北约团结的基础，因此事实被视为大敌。然而，由于对团结的要求也支持着只能被描述为斯德哥尔摩综合症的东西，让我们回顾一下北溪叙事是如何避免与现实相遇的。
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The US announces its obxtive to destroy Nord Stream
Preventing the economic integration and cooperation between Russia and Germany as two key centers of power has been a centuries-old hegemonic obxtive of the US and Britain. The RAND Corporation, a think tank lixed to the intelligence community, wrote a report in 2019 sponsored by the Army Quadrennial Defense Review Office about how to weaken Russia and make it overextend. Besides destabilizing Russia’s borders and bleeding Moscow in Ukraine, the report outlined the obxtive of cutting its energy ties to Western Europe: “A first step would involve stopping Nord Stream 2.”

美国宣布其目标是摧毁北溪管道
阻止俄德作为两大力量中心进行经济一体化与合作，是美英百年来的霸权目标。兰德公司是一家与情报界有联系的智库，该公司于 2019 年撰写了一份由陆军四年防务评估办公室赞助的报告，内容涉及如何削弱俄罗斯并使其过度扩张。除了破坏俄罗斯边境稳定和让莫斯科在乌克兰流血外，该报告还概述了切断俄罗斯与西欧能源联系的目标：“第一步是阻止北溪 2 号管道。”

The US opposition to the pipeline included political pressure and economic sanctions against the companies of European allies who participated in the project, a hegemonic ambition sold to the public as defending Europe. In July 2020, then-US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo proclaimed: “We will do everything we can to make sure that that pipeline doesn’t threaten Europe.” US Senator Tom Cotton announced in May 2021 that “there is still time to stop it.… Kill Nord Stream 2 now, and let it rust beneath the waves of the Balti’.” On January 14, 2022, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also threatened the pipeline: “We have made clear to the Russians that pipeline is at risk if they move further into Ukraine.” Senator Ted Cruz similarly used very direct language calling for stopping Nord Stream: “This pipeline must be stopped and the only way to prevent its completion is to use all the tools available to do that.”

美国反对该输油管道的行为包括对参与该项目的欧洲盟友公司施加政治压力和经济制裁，其霸权野心打着保卫欧洲的旗号向公众兜售。2020 年 7 月，时任美国国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥宣称：“我们将竭尽全力确保这条管道不会威胁欧洲。”美国参议员汤姆·科顿于 2021 年 5 月宣布：“现在还有时间阻止它……现在就关闭北溪二号项目，让它在巴尔蒂河的波涛下生锈。”2022年1月14日，美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文也威胁该管道：“我们已经向俄罗斯人明确表示，如果他们进一步进入乌克兰，管道将面临风险。”参议员特德·克鲁兹同样用非常直接的语言呼吁停止北溪管道：“这条管道必须停止，阻止其完工的唯一方法就是使用所有可用的工具来做到这一点。”

On February 7, 2022, President Biden stood next to German Chancellor Scholz at a press briefing, warning that if Russia invaded Ukraine, then ”there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.” When asked by a journalist how he would end a project under German control, Biden responded: ”I promise you, we will be able to do that.” US spokesperson, Ned Price, was explicit: “I want to be very clear: if Russia invades Ukraine one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.” Undersecretary of State for Policy Victoria Nuland used the exact same words: “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”

2022年2月7日，拜登总统在新闻发布会上站在德国总理朔尔茨身边，警告说，如果俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，那么“北溪2号将不复存在”。我们将结束这一切。”当记者问及如何结束这个受德国控制的项目时，拜登回答说：“我向你保证，我们一定能做到这一点。”美国发言人内德·普莱斯明确表示：“我要明确表示：如果俄罗斯以某种方式入侵乌克兰，北溪二号项目将无法推进。”美国负责政策的副国务卿维多利亚·纽兰也用了同样的话：“如果俄罗斯以某种方式入侵乌克兰，北溪二号项目将无法推进。”
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The attack on Nord Stream and the subsequent victory lap
On September 26, 2022, the German-Russian Nord Stream pipelines were destroyed. The former Foreign Minister of Poland, Radek Sikorski, tweeted: “Thank you, USA” accompanied by a picture of the destroyed pipeline. The day after the attack, on September 27, 2022, leaders from Poland, Norway, and Denmark attended a ceremony in Poland to mark the opening of the new Norway-Poland Baltic Pipe that was constructed to reduce dependence on Nord Stream.

北溪管道遭袭及随后的胜利圈
2022年9月26日，德俄北溪管道被摧毁。波兰前外交部长拉德克·西科尔斯基在推特上发文：“感谢美国”，并附上被摧毁管道的照片。袭击发生后的第二天，即2022年9月27日，波兰、挪威和丹麦领导人出席了在波兰举行的挪威-波兰新波罗的海管道开通仪式，该管道的建造是为了减少对北溪管道的依赖。

US Secretary of State Antony blxen argued that the destruction of Nord Stream presented “a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy.” blxen offered to “help” Western Europe to replace Russian gas with much more expensive American fuel. Nuland joined in celebrating the attack: “I am, and I think the Administration is, very gratified to know that Nord Stream 2 is now, as you like to say, a hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea.”

美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯认为，北溪管道的破坏为“彻底摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖提供了绝佳的机会”。布林肯提出“帮助”西欧用价格高得多的美国燃料取代俄罗斯天然气。纽兰也参与了对这次袭击的庆祝：“我和政府都非常高兴得知北溪二号现在就像你们说的，只是海底的一块金属而已。”

Washington could take a brief pause in rejoicing over the destruction of Europe’s critical energy infrastructure to reassure the world that it must have been the Russians who attacked their own pipelines. Russia had first invested billions into its evil plan of making Western Europe dependent on its energy and then transitioned into its new evil plan of blowing up the pipelines. Moscow could alternatively have turned off the valves and saved billion dollars’ worth of infrastructure, but the Russian playbook works in mysterious ways. Western European politicians entrusted with protecting their national interests and the media – which is supposed to report on reality – insisted that only Russia would have carried out such a horrendous attack. Anyone suggesting the US could have been the perpetrator was smeared by the political and media elites as spreading “Russian propaganda.”

华盛顿可以暂时停止对欧洲关键能源基础设施遭到破坏的庆幸，转而向世界保证，袭击他们自己的管道的一定是俄罗斯人。俄罗斯先是投入了数十亿美元实施让西欧依赖其能源的邪恶计划，然后又转向实施炸毁管道的新邪恶计划。莫斯科本可以选择关闭阀门，挽救价值数十亿美元的基础设施，但俄罗斯的策略却以神秘的方式发挥作用。肩负国家利益保护重任的西欧政客和本该报道现实的媒体坚称，只有俄罗斯才会发动如此可怕的袭击。任何认为美国可能是袭击者的人都会被政界和媒体精英抹黑为传播“俄罗斯宣传”。

Blaming Ukraine
Hersh then reported that the US had coordinated the attacks with the use of a US Navy diving team. The report was largely ignored by the media. When it was mentioned, it was mostly ridiculed and the reliability of the author undermined. The legendary investigative journalist – who exposed the cover up of the My Lai massacre in Vietnam and detailed the US military’s torture of prisoners in Abu Ghraib in Iraq – was suddenly sold to the public as a senile old discredited conspiracy theorist carrying water for Putin.

指责乌克兰
赫什随后报道称，美国已使用美国海军潜水队协调了袭击。该报告基本上被媒体忽略了。当它被提及时，它大多受到嘲笑，作者的可靠性受到削弱。这位曾揭露越南美莱村大屠杀掩盖真相、详细报道美军在伊拉克阿布格莱布监狱虐待囚犯的传奇调查记者，突然被公众出卖为普京的帮凶，成为一名年迈、声名狼藉的阴谋论者。

Then, the US began to shift the blame to Ukraine. The Washington Post reported in June 2023 about leaked CIA documents revealing that US intelligence and the Biden administration knew at least three months before the attack on Nord Stream that the “Ukrainian military had planned a covert attack on the undersea network, using a small team of divers who reported directly to the commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces.” How could the media report on the US lying about Russia being behind the attack, and what kind of narrative could be constructed when the only two suspects are the US and Ukraine? When the narrative-driven media did not have a narrative, the solution was simply a media blackout. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, committed to making excuses for the attackers and instead blaming Russia, suggested that it was too soon to blame Ukraine as the attack on Nord Stream could have been a “false flag” attack to blame Ukraine. Other Western European politicians simply concluded that it was best to stop digging as they would not like what they would find. The same EU officials who had for years spoken about the obxtive of “European sovereignty” now displayed complete subordination to Washington.

随后，美国开始将责任推卸给乌克兰。《华盛顿邮报》于2023年6月报道了美国中央情报局的一份泄露文件，该文件显示，美国情报部门和拜登政府在北溪管道遇袭事件发生至少三个月前就知道“乌克兰军方计划对海底网络进行秘密袭击，并使用了一小队潜水员，他们直接向乌克兰武装部队总司令汇报”。
“媒体怎么能报道美国谎称俄罗斯是袭击幕后黑手？当嫌疑人只有美国和乌克兰两个时，又能构建什么样的叙事？当叙事驱动的媒体没有叙事时，解决办法就是媒体封锁。
德国国防部长鲍里斯·皮斯托利斯致力于为袭击者找借口，并将责任推到俄罗斯身上，他表示，现在指责乌克兰还为时过早，因为北溪管道袭击可能是一次“假旗行动”，可以将责任推到乌克兰身上。
其他西欧政客则认为最好停止挖掘，因为他们不会喜欢挖掘到的结果。多年来一直高谈阔论“欧洲主权”目标的欧盟官员现在却完全屈从于华盛顿。

The US was nonetheless cautious not to delegitimize the Ukrainian government, blaming instead rogue Ukrainian elements who had acquired a sailboat with diving equipment. This story was uncritically presented to the public after it had been explained for months that only a state actor could be behind such a complicated operation. Yet, the media was urged not to engage in speculation until EU countries had completed their investigations and shared their findings with the world. Then, Sweden announced in October 2022 that it would not establish a joint investigation team with allies such as Germany due to national security. In February 2024, Stockholm announced it had closed its probe into the attack on Nord Stream as the case did not fall under its jurisdiction.

尽管如此，美国仍谨慎行事，避免使乌克兰政府失去合法性，而是将责任归咎于那些拥有配备潜水设备的帆船的乌克兰流氓分子。几个月来，欧盟一直在解释，只有国家行为者才能操纵如此复杂的行动。然而，欧盟敦促媒体不要进行猜测，直到欧盟国家完成调查并向世界公布调查结果。随后，瑞典于2022年10月宣布，出于国家安全考虑，不会与德国等盟友成立联合调查组。2024年2月，斯德哥尔摩宣布已结束对北溪管道袭击事件的调查，因为该案不属于其管辖范围。

As Russia was blocked from participating in the investigations, it put forward a resolution to the UN Security Council calling for the establishment of an international independent investigative commission into the attack. Western countries rejected this and blocked the UN resolution. After all, an independent fact-finding mission could threaten the narrative that NATO unity rests upon.

由于俄罗斯被禁止参与调查，它向联合国安理会提出了一项决议，呼吁成立一个国际独立调查委员会调查袭击事件。西方国家拒绝了这一要求，并阻止了联合国的决议。毕竟，一个独立的调查团可能会威胁北约团结所依赖的叙事。

By August 2024, the Nord Stream narrative evolved yet again, as the Wall Street Journal reported that Zelensky had been involved in the attack and that the CIA had allegedly attempted to stop it. The German government reassured its partners that the alleged Ukrainian attack on Nord Stream and Berlin’s weapon supplies to Ukraine were two separate issues, and the Nord Stream investigation would not have any bearing on support for Ukraine.

到 2024 年 8 月，北溪管道的叙事再次演变，《华尔街日报》报道称泽连斯基参与了这次袭击，而且中央情报局据称曾试图阻止它。德国政府向合作伙伴保证，乌克兰涉嫌袭击北溪管道和柏林向乌克兰提供武器是两个独立的问题，对北溪管道的调查不会对对乌克兰的支持产生任何影响。

Reality threatens the unifying narrative
Without a Russian perpetrator as the foundation for solidarity, the Western Europeans have begun to turn on each other. Narrative control has subsequently become difficult. A German official has claimed that Poland sabotaged investigations into the Nord Stream attack by not arresting a suspected Ukrainian diver named “Volodymyr Z,” instead allowing him to escape back to Ukraine. August Hanning, the former head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, has accused both Poland and Ukraine of being involved. Hanning has also questioned the sailboat narrative as: “operations of such dimensions are inconceivable without the approval of the political leaders of the countries involved.”

现实威胁着统一的叙事
失去了俄罗斯肇事者作为团结的基础，西欧人开始互相攻击。叙事控制因此变得困难。一名德国官员声称，波兰破坏了对北溪袭击事件的调查，没有逮捕一名名叫“Volodymyr Z”的乌克兰嫌疑潜水员，而是让他逃回乌克兰。德国联邦情报局前局长奥古斯特·汉宁 (August Hanning) 指控波兰和乌克兰参与了此事。汉宁还质疑帆船事件的说法：“如果没有相关国家政治领导人的批准，如此规模的行动是不可想象的。”
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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk responded to the Germans: “To all the initiators and patrons of Nord Stream 1 and 2. The only thing you should do today about it is apologise and keep quiet”. The president of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, argued that if Ukraine was behind the attack on Nord Stream, then it was a legitimate target. The narrative is thus shifting from denial to justification of the terrorist attack. Germany continues to be humiliated by its key partners and allies, some that were behind the operation and others justifying the attack on its critical infrastructure. This is all happening while Germany’s energy-intensive industries collapse and its economy subsequently falters.

波兰总理唐纳德·塔斯克回应德国人：“致北溪1号和2号项目的所有发起者和支持者。你们今天唯一应该做的就是道歉并保持沉默。”捷克总统彼得·帕维尔辩称，如果乌克兰是北溪管道袭击事件的幕后黑手，那么乌克兰就是一个合法目标。因此，舆论从否认恐怖袭击转向为恐怖袭击辩护。德国继续被其主要合作伙伴和盟友羞辱，其中一些是此次行动的幕后黑手，另一些人则为袭击其关键基础设施辩护。这一切都发生在德国能源密集型产业崩溃、经济随之衰退之际。

However, the Stockholm Syndrome phenomenon should not be underestimated. Western Europeans will memory-hole these uncomfortable facts and continue to ignore their own interests. There will soon be a new scxt to be followed diligently and a swift return to the simple and comfortable worldview of good versus evil, in which liberal democracies stand united under the leadership of the benign leadership of the US against the evil Russians.

然而，斯德哥尔摩综合症现象不容小觑，西欧人将会忘记这些令人不快的事实，继续忽视自己的利益。很快就会有一个新的剧本需要认真遵循，并迅速回归到简单而舒适的善与恶的世界观，在这个世界中，自由民主国家在美国仁慈领导的领导下团结起来，对抗邪恶的俄罗斯人。