斯瓦米纳坦-艾亚尔问:为什么印度的 GDP 增长如此之高,而银行信贷和消费却如此疲软?
2024-10-31 猛踹瘸子那条好腿 6392
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theholderjack·1d ago·Edited 1d ago·
The author has a point, IMF already revised indian GDP growth forecast. Thing is inflation is already very high, there is no ware near what Data is shown , so after inflation GDP is maybe correct.

作者说得有道理,国际货币基金组织已经修订了印度的 GDP 增长预测。 问题是通胀率已经很高,没有接近数据显示,因此通胀后的 GDP 也许是正确的。

charavaka·1d ago·
Yup.

是的

OnwardComrades·1d ago·
Inflation is not high. Prices may be high for your salary but inflation is 5.4% which is pretty tame.

通货膨胀率不高。 与您的工资相比,物价可能较高,但通胀率为 5.4%,相当温和。

theholderjack·1d ago·
Ya it's on paper bro

兄弟,这是纸上写的

OnwardComrades·1d ago·
No its reported by CMIE, a non government independent think-tank. So it is pretty close to ground realities. They collect their own data and do their own analysis.

不,它是由 CMIE 报告的,CMIE 是一个非政府的独立智囊团。 因此,它非常接近实际情况。

https://economicoutlook.cmie.com/
theholderjack·1d ago·Edited 1d ago·
And what is real GDP growth after this inflation ?

通货膨胀之后的实际 GDP 增长是多少?

Dude inflation data is highly manipulated all over the globe .food inflation is very high in india and most Indian don't consume much but food electric and petrol inflation hit directly.

印度的食品通胀率很高,而大多数印度人的消费并不高,但食品、电力和汽油通胀却直接影响了印度的经济。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


For example how much oil has risen in the last 5 years ?

例如,石油在过去 5 年里上涨了多少?

OnwardComrades·1d ago·
Real GDP Growth is same as reported in media, around 7-7.5% last I check.

实际 GDP 增长率与媒体报道的相同,据我所知约为 7-7.5%。

Calculation of GDP growth uses deflators to account for inflation.

GDP 增长率的计算使用了减缩指数来考虑通货膨胀因素。

Otherwise India's GDP growth nominally would be in double digits:

否则,印度名义上的 GDP 增长率将达到两位数:

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=2022323®=3&lang=1
PhysicalRepeat326·1d ago·
You must understand the gdp per capita of India is still $2000. Ranked 120th out of 179 country. One of lowest in the world. Even lower than Palestine that on war and sri Lanka who declare bankrupt.

你必须明白,印度的人均国民生产总值仍然只有 2000 美元。 在 179 个国家中排名第 120 位。 是世界上最低的国家之一。 甚至比发动战争的巴勒斯坦和宣布破产的斯里兰卡还低。

China that having similiar population having gdppc 6 times higher than India.

人口与印度相近的中国,其 人均GDP是印度的 6 倍。

Just because there's no birth control doesn't mean GDP growth is high and can benefit everyone.

没有节育措施并不意味着 GDP 增长率高,可以让每个人受益。

OnwardComrades·1d ago·
More like USD 2800 per capita. And ranking is not much useful.

更像是人均 2800 美元。 排名也没什么用。

PhysicalRepeat326·1d ago·
It is not. Doesn't matter anyway since even 2800 is lower than Sri Lanka.

不是的。反正也无所谓,因为 2800 也比斯里兰卡低。

Do you have a brain? Gdppc not important? It's the direct indicator of how wealthy a individual is in a country. With this mindset you really deserve to be poor.

不是的。 你有脑子吗? 人均GDP不重要? 这是衡量一个国家个人富裕程度的直接指标。 抱着这种心态,你真是活该穷死。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


OnwardComrades·1d ago·
So what if it is lower than Sri Lanka?

比斯里兰卡低又如何?

China's GDP per Capita is lower than Maldives for that matter. Can you infer anything useful from that?

中国的人均国内生产总值比马尔代夫还低。 你能从中推断出什么有用的东西吗?

PhysicalRepeat326·1d ago·
Yes. If the gdppc is lower that mean individual in the country is poorer than the other. What else information u need?

是的。如果 人均GDP较低,就意味着该国的个人比其他人更穷。 你还需要什么信息?

When a country has a lower GDP per capita (GDPPc), it generally means that, on average, the individuals in that country produce less economic output and, consequently, have lower incomes compared to individuals in wealthier countries.

当一个国家的人均国内生产总值(GDPPc)较低时,通常意味着平均而言,该国个人的经济产出较少,因此与较富裕国家的个人相比,收入较低。

Lower GDPPc often reflects limited access to resources, lower wages, and reduced purchasing power, impacting overall quality of life, health, education, and opportunities.

较低的人均国内生产总值通常反映出获得资源的机会有限、工资较低和购买力下降,从而影响到整体生活质量、健康、教育和机会。

Factors contributing to a lower GDPPc in poorer countries can include:

导致较贫穷国家 人均GDP较低的因素可能包括

Limited Industrialization: Countries with less developed industries produce fewer goods and services, affecting overall productivity and income levels.

有限的工业化: 工业不发达的国家生产的产品和服务较少,影响了整体生产力和收入水平。

Lower Education Levels: Limited access to quality education reduces workforce skills, leading to less innovation and lower productivity.

教育水平较低: 接受优质教育的机会有限,降低了劳动力的技能,导致创新减少和生产率降低。

High Population Growth: A high population growth rate with a slower-growing economy results in fewer resources per person.

人口高增长: 人口增长率高,经济增长缓慢,导致人均资源减少。

Political Instability and Corruption: Instability and corruption can hinder economic growth, scare away investments, and create inefficiencies.

政治不稳定和腐败: 不稳定和腐败会阻碍经济增长,吓跑投资,造成效率低下。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Poor Infrastructure: Lack of infrastructure, like roads and reliable electricity, impacts productivity and access to markets.

基础设施薄弱: 缺乏道路和可靠电力等基础设施会影响生产力和市场准入。

Health Challenges: Poor health services mean that people may be less productive, impacting economic contributions and earning potential.

健康挑战: 糟糕的医疗服务意味着人们的生产力可能会降低,从而影响经济贡献和收入潜力。

These issues can lead to a cycle of poverty, where low economic output affects income levels, limiting investments in health, education, and infrastructure.

这些问题可能导致贫困循环,低经济产出影响收入水平,限制对卫生、教育和基础设施的投资。

OnwardComrades·1d ago·
Do not quote chatgpt's generic output.

请勿引用 chatgpt 的通用输出。

And NO. Just because if a country's GDP per Capita is lower that does not mean a country is poorer than the other.

也不对。 如果一个国家的人均国内生产总值较低,并不意味着这个国家比另一个国家更穷。

Maldives has higher GDP Per Capita than China.

马尔代夫的人均国内生产总值高于中国。

Is Maldives richer than China? I highly doubt it in any sense of the word when Maldives can not even manufacture anything by themselves.

马尔代夫比中国富有吗? 我非常怀疑,因为马尔代夫自己都不能生产任何东西。

Am I to believe Maldives have higher industrialisation than China? I can only laugh at you if you think it is even anywhere near truth.

难道我会相信马尔代夫的工业化程度比中国高吗? 如果你认为这是事实,那我只能嘲笑你了。

Am I to believe that Maldives have better education facilities and are better educated than Chinese? Laughable!

难道我会相信马尔代夫的教育设施和教育水平比中国高? 真可笑!

There is way much more than just GDP per Capita. Actually it is very misleading to even consider comparing GDP Per Capita of two countries with so different size in population, economy and diversity as between India and Sri Lanka OR Maldives and China.

其实不仅仅是人均国内生产总值。 事实上,印度和斯里兰卡、马尔代夫和中国这两个国家在人口、经济和多样性方面的规模相差悬殊,即使考虑比较这两个国家的人均 GDP 也会产生极大的误导。

PhysicalRepeat326·1d ago·
Poor guy.... You just can't accept the fact you earn lesser than a sri lankan.

可怜的家伙.... 你就是不能接受自己挣得比斯里兰卡人少的事实。

You know what? You deserve every single suffering and poverty in your life with this mindset.

你们知道吗? 抱着这样的心态,你活该一生受苦受累、穷困潦倒。

Remember this post each time when you feel helpless due to money problem.

每当你因金钱问题而感到无助时,请记住这篇文章。

theholderjack·22h ago·
How is it not that useful, can you tell me about one major economy which had polar growth and is successful currently.

这怎么会没有用呢?你能不能告诉我,有哪个主要经济体曾经有过极大地增长,而且目前取得了成功。

Every major economy today uplifted a big lower class to middle class . 1 % will not make india great.

如今,每个主要经济体都将一大批下层阶级提升为中产阶级。 1 % 的人口不会让印度变得伟大。

The cast based system is deeply rooted in Indian and think they can grow as a superior class fsr .

基于种姓的制度在印度根深蒂固,他们认为自己可以成长为优等阶级。

Everyone deserves to have a job and minimum wage. Our right wing upper cast turds will not understand equal growth. Bunch of crab in a bucket will suffocate each other to death

每个人都应该有一份工作和最低工资。 我们的右翼上层大粪不会理解平等增长。 桶里的一群螃蟹会互相掐死对方

karanChan·1d ago·Edited 1d ago·
Bank and credit consumption is mainly only driven by the top 20% of India, which is urban india. It could be that urban India’s consumption is slowing but rural India is so so massive, even a small improvement there will show up in GDP numbers.

银行和信贷消费主要是由印度前 20% 的人口(即城市人口)驱动的。 可能是印度城市的消费正在放缓,但印度农村的规模如此之大,即使是很小的改善也会在 GDP 数据中显现出来。

Apparently 30% of Indians live in urban areas. So 70% live in rural India. If urban Indians see a 10% improvement in per capita GDP that translates to a 3% improvement to overall GDP.

显然,30% 的印度人生活在城市地区。 那么 70% 的印度人生活在农村。 如果城市印度人的人均 GDP 提高了 10%,那么整体 GDP 就提高了 3%。

But at the same time, if rural India sees a 4.5% improvement in GDP it shows up as the same 3% improvement in national GDP.

但与此同时,如果印度农村地区的 GDP 增长了 4.5%,那么全国 GDP 增长的 3% 也会显示出来。

So even if rural India is growing at a much slower rate, its contribution to overall GDP growth will appear big just by the shear size of that part of the economy.

因此,即使印度农村地区的增长速度要慢得多,其对整体 GDP 增长的贡献也会因为这部分经济的规模而显得很大。

Rural India could be the one driving the GDP growth.

印度农村地区可能是推动国内生产总值增长的动力。

Or, as GDP is a measure of economic activity, and UPI adoption etc is bringing more and more former cash transactions into the formal system, that alone will show up as more economic activity.

或者说,由于 GDP 是衡量经济活动的一个指标,而 UPI 的采用等正将越来越多以前的现金交易带入正规系统,这本身就会显示为更多的经济活动。

UPI has done a lot to bring a lot of rural economic activity into the formal system which will appear to boost the GDP numbers.

万国邮联在将大量农村经济活动带入正规系统方面做了很多工作,这似乎会提高国内生产总值的数字。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


UPI adoption in rural India could just be artificially making it appear as if there a lot of GDP growth, when in reality it is just formalising previously untracked activity

印度农村地区采用 UPI 可能只是人为地使 GDP 出现大量增长,而实际上它只是将以前未被跟踪的活动正规化了。

charavaka·1d ago·
This works only if the 70% rural population contributed 70% of the economy. It doesn't.

这只有在 70% 的农村人口贡献了 70% 的经济时才行得通。 事实并非如此。

Turnip-itup·1d ago·
Majority driver of Indian growth is still urban India. The volume of consumption and economic output there is significantly higher than rural.

印度经济增长的主要动力仍然来自城市。 城市的消费额和经济产出远远高于农村地区。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


There would have to be major growth in rural India to outgrow urban India’s share. Usually organic gdp growth is seen from productive business activities , which is strongly supported and correlated with increase in bank credit .

印度农村地区必须实现大幅增长,才能超过城市地区的份额。 通常,国内生产总值的有机增长来自于生产性商业活动,这与银行信贷的增加有着密切的联系。

But growth in last few years has been mainly driven by government spending on large scale projects ( infra, social welfare ) and not by traditional business activities . This increases our GDP numbers while keeping the business output similar .

但过去几年的增长主要是由政府在大型项目(基础设施、社会福利)上的支出推动的,而不是由传统的商业活动推动的。 这增加了我们的 GDP 数字,同时也保持了类似的商业产出。

charavaka·1d ago·Edited 2h ago·
You know what is a bigger contributor? Underestimation of inflation in calculating real gdp growth.

你知道什么因素的影响更大吗? 在计算实际 GDP 增长时低估了通货膨胀。

Every single thing I can think of costs twice or thrice as much as it was three years ago (with the exception of petrol, which remains close to 100rs/l despite fall in crude prices), and yet, the official inflation is in single digits in those three years.

我能想到的每样东西的价格都是三年前的两倍或三倍(汽油除外,尽管原油价格下跌,但汽油价格仍接近每升 100 美元),但这三年的官方通胀率仅为个位数。

The numbers simply don't add up.

这些数字根本不符.

charavaka·1d ago·
This can explain post pandemic years, but the adoption

这可以解释大流行后的年份,但采用率在一年多前已经饱和。

TheIndianRevolution2OP·14h ago·India
India's GDP data is fradulent.

印度的 GDP 数据是虚假的。

How do we know if a company is doing financial fraud? We look at their accounts for inconsistencies!

我们如何知道一家公司是否在进行财务欺诈? 我们要看他们的账目是否前后矛盾!

An examination of the Modi Regime's accounts indicates that Household Consumption adjusted for inflation has only increased by 3% per annum over a 10 year period.

对莫迪政权账目的审查表明,家庭消费按通货膨胀调整后,10 年间每年仅增长 3%。

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseifxePage.aspx?PRID=2008737
Moreover, the share of Private Consumption to GDP has increase during the past decade. So please do not try to argue that other factors of GDP grew more.

此外,在过去十年中,私人消费在国内生产总值中所占的份额也在增加。 因此,请不要试图辩称国内生产总值的其他因素增长更多。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


OnwardComrades·1d ago·
The reason I guess is that a lot of high GDP growth is fuelled by government spending. And that will not show up in bank credit. Government raises credit by selling bonds directly.

我猜原因是,国内生产总值的高增长很大程度上是由政府支出推动的。 而这不会体现在银行信贷上。 政府通过直接出售债券来增加信贷。

Consumption is not really slack as well. It has recovered from the pandemic shock.

消费也没有真正疲软。 它已经从大流行病的冲击中恢复过来。

Glad_Diamond_210·2d ago·
I am not an economist, but i think our GDP is high because of our purchasing power which in turn is high cuz of our population

我不是经济学家,但我认为我们的 GDP 之所以高,是因为我们的购买力强,而购买力强又是因为我们的人口多

ayewhy2407·1d ago·
sorry, but the headline and the article are about GDP “growth”, not absolute number… slight difference!

对不起,标题和文章都是关于国内生产总值的 "增长",而不是绝对数字......略有不同!

AlliterationAlly·1d ago·
What you mean is high consumption, purchasing power is entirely a different concept.

你指的是高消费,购买力完全是另一个概念

But also, consumption has been declining for a while because govt has stopped releasing GST data, my guess is GST collections have declined.

但是,由于政府停止发布消费税数据,消费已经下降了一段时间,因此我猜测消费税的征收额已经下降。

Govt doesn't want us knowing, would rather give us bs about fastest growing economy & Vishwaguru.

政府不想让我们知道,宁愿给我们讲经济增长最快和毗湿奴的废话。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The reality is that the general public/ most people can no longer afford even basic things, so consumption is declining & so GST is declining.

现实情况是,普通大众/大多数人连基本的东西都买不起了,因此消费在下降,消费税也在下降。

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