印度经济每年增长超过 7%。为什么印度人对未来如此悲观?
2024-11-07 兰陵笑笑生 10425
正文翻译
India economy is growing over 7% every year. Why are Indians so pessimistic about the future?

印度经济每年增长超过 7%。为什么印度人对未来如此悲观?
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I am Brazilian and the last time we consistently were growing over 7% was in the early 1970s. We celebrate just not being in a recession.
India has been growing ridiculously fast consistently like China was in the 90s and 2000s. India is also has way better relations diplomatically world wide and likely will never have to deal with trade wars like China has. I predict that India will be a middle income country in 10 years or so.
But when I read comments on this sub it seems like most Indians are very pessimistic about the future, why is that?

我是巴西人,我们上一次持续增长超过 7% 还是在 20 世纪 70 年代初。我们只要没有陷入衰退就值得庆贺了。
印度的持续增长速度快得离谱,就像中国在上世纪 90 年代和 2000 年代一样。印度的外交关系在世界范围内也要好得多,而且很可能永远都不用像中国那样应对贸易战。我预测,印度将在 10 年左右成为中等收入国家。
但当我读到这个板块上的评论时,似乎大多数印度人对未来都非常悲观,这是为什么呢?

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评论翻译
bakait_launda
Most of our growth is in Service sector which does not employ as many folks as compared to other sectors. So as our young population increases, there is a mismatch in our job market.
Lack of manufacturing sector leaves a huge skill mismatch. The semi skilled and unskilled are not the getting the jobs they want.
Even thought govt is promoting entrepreneurship (especially in MSME sectors), it difficult for small firms to compete with big conglomerates.
7% growth is good, but the effects are not trickling down (Cantillon effect) and the economic wounds of Covid have not healed.
Add to this, the usual corruption, Political culture & Climate change induced disasters. Basically we are walking on a tightrope. The Industry, Government and people have to balance it so that growth becomes more equitable.

我们大部分的增长来自服务行业,而与其他行业相比,服务行业并没有雇佣那么多员工。因此,随着年轻人口的增加,我们的就业市场出现了不匹配。
制造业的缺乏导致了巨大的技能不匹配。半熟练和非熟练工人没有获得他们想要的工作。尽管政府在推动创业(特别是在中小企业领域),但小公司很难与大型企业竞争。
7%的增长是好的,但其效果并没有向下渗透(坎蒂隆效应),而且新冠疫情带来的经济创伤尚未愈合。再加上常见的腐败、政治文化和气候变化引发的灾难。基本上,我们正走在一根绳索上。工业、政府和人民必须平衡,以使增长变得更加公平。

zenFyre1
Yes, Indian economy is very skewed and not balanced well. The lack of well paying, high skill blue collar jobs is a real economic disaster. Service sector is growing well due to connections with the international economy.

是的,印度经济非常不平衡。缺乏高薪、高技能的蓝领工作是一场真正的经济灾难。而由于与国际经济的联系,服务业发展良好。

PlaceOk2031
We aren't utilising our young Labour force, China was ready when the population boom happened, they knew that large scale manufacturing is the way to go. We on the other hand are busy in doing cash handouts. It is anyways too late now we should have thought about this 20 years ago.

我们没有充分利用我们的年轻劳动力,中国在人口激增时就做好了准备,他们知道大规模制造才是王道。而我们却忙于派发现金。无论如何,现在为时已晚,我们早在 20 年前就应该想到这一点。
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lurid_dream
China could do that given their 1 party system. Political parties in India keep fighting to stay in power and have no interest in uplifting the nation.

中国可以做到这一点,因为他们实行的是一党制。印度的政党一直在为保住权力而斗争,对提升国家利益毫无兴趣。

EasyRider_Suraj
Chinese economy is a result of cold war geopolitics. Sino Soviet spilit made US becoming allied with China and helped them get all of the manufacturing shifted from their puppets like Japan and Korea.

中国经济是冷战地缘政治的结果。中苏分裂使美国与中国结盟,并帮助他们将所有制造业从日本和韩国等傀儡手中转移到中国。

thecreativesboy
Very well put. Also to add, India is at the right time to have a demographic dividend to pay off. India needs at least 8-9% yearly growth minimum otherwise it will get old before getting rich and will be trapped in middle income countries like Thailand and Malaysia.

说得好。另外,我还要补充一点,印度正处于人口红利期。印度至少需要 8-9% 的年增长率,否则就会未富先老,沦为泰国和马来西亚这样的中等收入国家。

Top-Faithlessness785
Tho the overall growth is 7%(just consuming growth), the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer...as much as it's now 'worse than the colonial era' as many says.

虽然总体增长率为 7%(只是消费增长),但富人越来越富,穷人越来越穷......正如许多人所说,现在的情况“比殖民时代还糟糕”。

liberalparadigm
Everyone is getting richer. Wealth compounds. Even the poor accumulate farmland, have houses in villages, and have access to free/subsidized food.

每个人都越来越富。财富不断累积。即使是穷人也会积累农田,在村庄里拥有房屋,并获得免费/补贴食品。

vsa467
A metric that measures this is the Gini index. Feel free to check that out yourself for the UK and India.
Firstly, stop comparing pre-independent India with now. That's just comparing us to absolute garbage of times. The quality of life of most humans has increased over time. But the rich reap many more benefits from opportunities and economic growth than the poor.
Poverty has always been a problem in India, but it does not disappear even when the country experiences peak economic growth and development.

基尼系数是衡量这一现象的指标。你可以自行查看英国和印度的基尼指数。
首先,不要再拿独立前的印度与现在相比了。这只是将我们与绝对垃圾的时代相比较。随着时间的推移,大多数人的生活质量都在提高。但富人从机遇和经济增长中获得的好处要比穷人多得多。
在印度,贫困一直是个问题,但即使国家经济增长和发展达到顶峰,贫困也不会消失。

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BreadfruitRich2175
The per capita income of middle class, salary class and poor is stagnant. Govt is squeezing more taxes from salary class but rich politicians, bureaucrats and elite business tycoons growing 100% YOY

中产阶级、工薪阶层和穷人的人均收入停滞不前。政府从工薪阶层榨取更多税收,但富裕的政客、官僚和商界精英却年年翻倍增长

Eastern_Can_1802
Because it's the rich elites lining their pockets and starving everyone below them. The economy isn't really growing just rich people's pockets.

因为只有有钱的精英们赚得盆满钵满,饿死了他们下面的所有人。经济并没有真正增长,增长的只是富人的口袋。

broken_soul535
There are many reasons. I'll blame the most in the media.
Lots of Indians are only educated with a degree. They actually lack skills. And not everyone is a hard-worker. I'd blame society for it. Older folks tell kids that after school and college there isn't a need to study and work as hard.

原因有很多。我把大部分原因归咎于媒体。
很多印度人只受过学位教育。他们实际上缺乏技能。而且并不是每个人都勤奋工作。我认为这应该归咎于社会。老人们告诉孩子们,上完中小学和大学后就不需要再努力学习和工作了。

andrewgarfield07
Jobless growth, excessive quotas in jobs & admissions,real inflation much higher than official data, infrastructure improvement isn't as fast as expected,cities are still dirty,no sidewalks, no civic sense,public transport is overburdened etc etc. Real estate is not even affordable to top 5%. Growth is only for those who want to invest.

失业在增长、工作和招生的固定配额却越来越多、实际通货膨胀远高于官方数据、基础设施改善速度不如预期、城市依然肮脏、没有人行道、缺乏公民意识、公共交通超负荷等。房地产连前5%的人都买不起。增长仅对那些想要投资的人有利。

Big-Bite-4576
only the rich are growing, income inequality is growing, basically 1% are growing richer more than the billionaires of USA while bottom 70% of the people are living a sub-saharan lifestyle, suffering from unimaginable poverty

只有富人在增长,收入不平等在加剧,基本上前 1% 的人比美国的亿万富翁还要富有,而 70% 的底层人民却过着撒哈拉以南的生活,遭受着难以想象的贫困。

ozneoknarf
OP
Damn I just searched the income inequality in India. Top 1% has 22% of all income, in Brazil it’s 13% and I though that was a lot. What I don’t understand is with so much inequality why is crime rates in India so low when compared to other third world countries? I felt way safer in poor areas in India than in Brazil.

艹,我刚刚搜索了印度的收入不平等情况。收入最高的 1%占总收入的 22%,巴西是 13%,而我之前已经觉得这很多了。我不明白的是,既然存在如此严重的不平等,为什么印度的犯罪率与其他第三世界国家相比如此之低?在印度的贫困地区,我感觉比在巴西更安全。

Time-Weekend-8611
For one thing, we don't have a gun culture. Firearms are difficult to acquire and ammunition is expensive. Your run of the mill thugs usually can't get more than cheap country made pistols, if that.
Violence usually takes place in the form of mobs. But mobs aren't going to riot every day. They still have to make a living.

首先,我们没有枪支文化。枪支难以获得,弹药价格昂贵。普通暴徒通常只能买到廉价的国产手枪。
暴力通常以暴民的形式发生。但暴民不会天天暴动。他们也要谋生。

cherryreddit
India is a collectivist society to an extent, with each religion and caste having their own leaders and internal cohesion mechanisms. So there is a in group dynamic that prevents most violent crime against people of your own group, and the indian state for all its faults is able to clamp down on out group violence through its democratically elections act as a release valve for social tensions and its police force is really feared when push comes to shove.

印度在一定程度上是一个集体主义社会,各个宗教和种姓都有自己的领导者和内部凝聚机制。因此,存在一种内部群体动态,防止对自己群体成员的暴力犯罪。尽管印度国家存在许多缺陷,但它能够通过民主选举来抑制外部群体的暴力,这也为社会紧张局势提供了一个解压阀。而当局势紧张时,印度的警察力量也确实令人畏惧。

Big-Bite-4576
people in India have the attitude of everything is okay no matter how fucked up the situation is, even when Brits were looting Indians, the same attitude was present then also. Gandhi had to come take procession across the country to awaken the people that whats happening is not okay, you should fight for your rights. Indians can create loud noises among themselves and now on social media but when it comes to action, they will be like why should I fight, I got my family to feed. You fight. And like this no revolution ever happens in India.

印度人的态度是,无论情况有多糟糕,一切都无所谓,即使是英国人掠夺印度人的时候,也是这种态度。甘地不得不在全国各地游行,唤醒人们正在发生的事情是不对的,你们应该为自己的权利而战。印度人可以在他们之间大声哔哔,现在也可以在社交媒体上大声哔哔,但一旦需要付诸行动,他们就会说,我为什么要战斗,我还要养家糊口。你去战斗吧。因此,印度从未发生过革命。

Living-Resort1990
Most of Indians with power and authority are extremely lawless and corrupt but excellent hypocrites who can manipulate any intelligent person. Our Indians use emotions, sentiments for covering the hypocrisy. You can never see this in any part of the world. Fundamentally our homes are lawless, before even teaching whats right and wrong, good and evil, our parents and entire society, neighbours, institutions all teach and instil caste right from birth - that you are high they are low and the reverse. so basically mo one cares or respects anyone as society. All the families too are hypocrites, do anything for caste and cover it with hypocrisy. Otherwise how in the world, so many invaders ruled us for many centuries. We are a very caste addicted high low lawless society. But most of the Indians will not agree to this. Truth is bitter for hypocrites

大多数掌握权力和权威的印度人都是极端无法无天和腐败的,但却是优秀的伪君子,能够操纵任何聪明人。我们印度人利用情感和情绪来掩盖这种伪善。在世界的任何地方你都看不到这种现象。从根本上说,我们的家庭是没有法律观念的,在教导什么是对与错、善与恶之前,我们的父母和整个社会、邻居、机构从出生开始就灌输种姓观念——你是高贵的,他们是卑贱的,反之亦然。因此,基本上没有人关心或尊重社会中的任何人。所有的家庭也是伪君子,为了种姓做任何事情,并用伪善来掩盖。否则,世界上怎么会有那么多侵略者统治了我们几个世纪。我们是一个非常沉迷于种姓的高低、无法无天的社会。但大多数印度人不会同意这一点。真相对伪君子来说是苦涩的。

indcel47
If you're a female I'd say you're way safer in Brazil than India, but if you're a male, things become a little different:
If you're visibly foreign, violent crime can mean way more fallout from the police than it's worth
No gun culture; the ones with guns are involved in way more serious crimes and have a lot more at stake than attacking a tourist.
Violent incidents are not very well recorded, especially in rural areas; a lot of the state infra is dominated by certain castes in these areas (varies state to state and region to region), so if they're the perps, won't even be noted down.

如果你是女性,我会说巴西比印度安全得多,但如果你是男性,情况就有些不同了:
1. 如果你是很明显的外国人,暴力犯罪可能意味着警察的报复远远超过它带来的价值
2. 没有枪支文化;有枪的人参与的犯罪要严重得多,而且比袭击游客的利害关系要大得多
3. 暴力事件被记录得不多,尤其是在农村地区;在这些地区,许多邦的基础设施都被某些种姓所控制(各邦和各地区情况不同),因此如果他们是罪犯,甚至都不会被记录下来。

Mahameghabahana
Wtf are you even talking about Brazil have one of the highest homicide rates while india have less homicide rates than Brazil. The violence of Brazil can never be compared to india maybe Mumbai in early 90s or late 90s come near the scale.
Homicides are recorded even in rural areas by police. As my relatives live in extremely small village in odisha I know this.
India's rape rate including unreported rape rate is still lower than USA or brazil.
The problem is that indian media reports every crime so that indians like you have a skewed perspective. So much show that even the argument I said won't convince you and now data would convince you.
Indian media do that because crimes and negative news receives more eyes thus more revenue.

你在说什么?巴西是凶杀率最高的国家之一,而印度的凶杀率却低于巴西。印度的暴力事件永远无法与巴西相提并论,也许 90 年代初或 90 年代末的孟买可以与之相提并论。
即使在农村地区,警方也会记录谋杀案。因为我的亲戚住在奥里萨邦一个非常小的村庄,我对此很清楚。
印度的强奸率(包括未报告的强奸率)仍然低于美国或巴西。
问题在于,印度媒体报道每一个犯罪事件,这让像你这样的印度人对情况有了偏颇的看法。甚至我所说的论点也无法说服你,现在的数据也无法说服你。
印度媒体这样做是因为犯罪和负面新闻会吸引更多的眼球,从而带来更多的收入。

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indcel47
Do you have any idea of how widespread rape is in India? Marital rape isn't even counted as rape, and even without that it's leagues worse than the US or Brazil.
Your village isn't representative of India; go visit and ask around rural UP, Bengal, Bihar, Rajasthan, MP, Haryana, etc. and you'll understand. Odisha govt is utopian in comparison.
Statistics in India are unreliable as hell. Indian men keep whining about how the world has it in for us and then show Indian statistics, while barring a few deshbhakt types, not a single woman disputes the safety issues in India, and none of them feel more at risk in the US or even Brazil than in India.

你知道强奸在印度有多普遍吗?婚内强奸甚至不被算作强奸,即使不算这个,情况也比美国或巴西糟糕得多。
你的村庄并不能代表整个印度;去访问一下农村的北方邦、孟加拉、比哈尔、拉贾斯坦、中央邦、哈里亚纳等地,问问当地人,你就会明白。与之相比,奥里萨邦政府简直是乌托邦。印度的统计数据极其不可靠。印度男人总是抱怨世界对我们不公平,然后拿出印度的统计数据,而除了少数极端爱国主义的人之外,没有一个女性对印度的安全问题提出异议,她们都不觉得在美国甚至巴西会比在印度更危险。

Mahameghabahana
Sorry mate you don't know sub Saharan styles of poverty bottom 70% would be people earning between 3k to 15k right? Though they live hard lives they still don't live like that.
You need to see what poverty looks like I'm sub Saharan countries, in india at least there's some government intervention.
GDP growth rate means GDP is growing, GDP is just the amount of goods and services purchased in country. Even a poor person buying a 1rs candy contribute to the GDP. This Quarter rural consumption is increasing while urban consumption is decreasing.

抱歉,哥们,你对撒哈拉以南地区的贫困状况了解不够,底层70%的人收入在3000到15000卢比之间,对吧?虽然他们的生活很艰难,但他们的生活没到那种程度。
你需要看看撒哈拉以南国家的贫困状况,在印度至少还有一些政府干预。
GDP增长率意味着GDP在增长,GDP只是一个国家购买的商品和服务的总量。即使是一个穷人买一块1卢比的糖果也会对GDP产生贡献。这一季度,农村消费在增加,而城市消费在减少。

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JustGulabjamun
There are issues with share of manufacturing, per capita income, standard of living etc. But India is not pessimistic about it. Reddit is not that mainstream in India, so reddit comments are not ideal samples to understand how India thinks.
Some people see government making some attempts for improvements, while some others will always remain unsatisfied, no matter what you give them. Happens. Society has such elements. Not all people were happy even in Ram-rajya (rule of Shreeram). Alright.
We will improve and outperform ourselves. No doubt.

印度在制造业份额、人均收入、生活水平等方面都存在问题。但印度人对此并不悲观。Reddit 在印度并不是主流,因此 Reddit 上的评论并不是了解印度人想法的理想样本。
有些人认为政府在努力改进,而另一些人则始终不满意,无论你给他们什么。事情就是这样。社会就是这样。即使在 Ram-rajya(Shreeram 统治时期),也并非所有人都感到幸福。好吧。
我们会不断进步,超越自我。毫无疑问。

B00BY_
You will find every sort of person tbh, it just depends where you look.
My father used to sleep on a sewer cover during the late 80s early 90s. After 30 years he bought land for 8 million rupees which after 4 years is somewhere around 40 mil. So people who invested anywhere have got great returns and are really happy.
Whereas people from the lowest strata can only see the development not feel it.
And then there are haters, not critics but haters. They will just spew hate which are also many.

说实话,什么样的人都有,只是看你去哪里找。
上世纪 80 年代末 90 年代初,我父亲曾睡在下水道盖上。30 年后,他花了 800 万卢比买了一块地,4 年后大约升值到 4000 万卢比。因此,在任何地方投资的人都获得了丰厚的回报,他们真的很幸福。
而来自最底层的人们只能看到发展,而不能感受到发展。
还有一些憎恨者,不是批评者,而是憎恨者。他们只会散播仇恨,而这种人也很多。

Creative_Rip802
The disposable incomes of Indians have been shrinking. Certain economists even estimate that the size of the Indian Middle Class has shrunk in the last 8 years.
P.S. The Indian Government changed how GDP is calculated so that's not even reliable.

印度人的可支配收入一直在缩水。一些经济学家甚至估计,印度中产阶级的规模在过去 8 年中已经缩小。
附注:印度政府改变了国内生产总值的计算方法,因此这个数据根本不可靠。

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