特朗普希望通过对华关税让制造业重返美国，这会奏效吗？

This is the first in a two-part series about the tariffs likely to be levied on China during Donald Trump’s second term as US president. This part examines the state of trade and taxation from the Americans’ point of view, while part two explores China’s side of the story.

这是一个关于唐纳德·特朗普第二任美国总统期间可能对中国征收的关税的两部分系列文章的第一部分。第一部分从美国的角度审视贸易和税收的现状，而第二部分则探讨中国的立场。

When Robert Lighthizer speaks of his early life – spent in a once-thriving industrial town deep in the American rust belt – the long-time Donald Trump ally makes it clear his commitment to reviving domestic manufacturing is as personal as it is political.

当罗伯特·莱特希泽谈到他早年生活在一个曾经繁荣的美国锈带工业城镇度过时，这位长期以来的特朗普盟友明确表示，他对振兴国内制造业的承诺既是个人的，也是政治的。

Having shaped trade policy during Trump’s first term as president, the former United States Trade Representative (USTR) views reindustrialization – and wiping out what he sees as China’s edge in trade – as a patriotic mission and economic necessity.

在特朗普第一任总统期间制定贸易政策的前美国贸易代表（USTR）将再工业化，以及消除他所认为的中国在贸易中的优势，视为一项爱国使命和经济必要性。

“We need substantial tariffs on China because they are an adversary, they’re taking advantage of us. Now we have to get that back to balance,” the 77-year-old lawyer said last month in a lengthy talk with the Intercollegiate Studies Institute (ISI), a conservative educational non-profit.

“我们需要对中国征收大量关税，因为他们是我们的对手，他们在利用我们。现在我们必须恢复平衡，”这位77岁的律师上个月在与保守派教育非营利组织跨学院研究所（ISI）进行的长时间交谈中说道。

Now, as Trump prepares a return to the White House, a new era of economic policy driven by tariffs appears all but certain.

现在，随着特朗普准备重返白宫，由关税驱动的新经济政策时代似乎几乎已成定局。

Having named a series of prominent hawks to his cabinet – though Lighthizer himself has yet to be placed in a top spot – the president-elect seems poised to implement the same punitive measures he adopted in his first term, if not more stringent action.

尽管莱特希泽本人尚未被任命为重要职位，但总统当选人已任命了一系列著名的鹰派人士进入他的内阁，似乎准备实施他第一任期采取的惩罚性措施，甚至采取更严格的行动。

Trump’s choice for commerce secretary, the investment banker Howard Lutnick, issued a full-throated defence of import duties in an October interview on finance broadcaster CNBC. “Tariffs are an amazing tool,” he said. “If we want to make it in America, tariff it.”

特朗普选择的商务部长，投资银行家霍华德·勒特尼克，在10月的财经广播公司CNBC采访中对进口关税进行了全面辩护。“关税是一个了不起的工具，”他说。“如果我们想在美国制造产品，就要征收关税。”

Hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, the nominee for treasury secretary, has taken up a similar line of argument. “Other countries have taken advantage of the US’s openness for far too long, because we allowed them to,” he said in a Fox News opinion piece last week. “Tariffs,” he added, “are a means to finally stand up for Americans.”

对冲基金经理斯科特·贝森特，财政部长提名人，也采取了类似的论点。“其他国家利用美国的开放已经太久了，因为我们允许他们这样做，”他在上周的福克斯新闻评论文章中写道。他补充说，“关税”是最终为美国人挺身而出的手段。

For many observers, the only questions related to tariffs are those of scope and timing, as heightened import taxes serve several of Trump’s stated goals: bringing back investment, rejuvenating domestic industry and furthering a “strategic decoupling” from China.

对于许多观察家来说，关税相关的唯一问题是范围和时间，因为提高的进口税为特朗普的几个既定目标服务：恢复投资、振兴国内工业以及进一步与中国“战略脱钩”。

With the global trade landscape already significantly altered since his previous administration, critics said, whether a fresh wave of tariffs will accomplish Trump’s goals remains an open question.

批评者说，随着全球贸易格局自他上届政府以来已发生重大变化，新一轮关税能否实现特朗普的目标仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。

For Lighthizer, an avowed protectionist who led the trade war against China during his time as USTR, tariffs are a “countermeasure” to Beijing’s industrial policy. He and other trade hawks have said this state-driven strategy distorts fair competition and puts American manufacturers on the back-heel.

对于莱特希泽来说，这位在担任USTR期间领导对华贸易战的公开保护主义者，关税是北京工业政策的“对策”。他和其他贸易鹰派人士表示，这种国家驱动的战略扭曲了公平竞争，并使美国制造商处于劣势。

Such a “constructed advantage” has led to economic despair and a host of societal issues, he said.

他说，这种“构建的优势”导致了经济绝望和一系列社会问题。
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Consequently, Trump has said a rejuvenation of US manufacturing would be his top priority when in power, proposing a 60 per cent tariff on products made in China and a 10 per cent to 20 per cent flat duty on all imports.

因此，特朗普表示，振兴美国制造业将是他执政时的首要任务，提议对中国制造的产品征收60%的关税，并对所有进口产品征收10%到20%的统一税。

“We’re going to bring the companies back. We’re going to lower taxes for companies that are going to make their products in the USA. And we’re going to protect those companies with strong tariffs,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg last month.

“我们将把公司带回来。我们将降低在美国制造产品的公司的税收。我们将通过强有力的关税保护这些公司，”他上个月在接受彭博社采访时说道。

“To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariffs’.”

“对我来说，字典中最美丽的词是‘关税’。”

To Trump and his allies, import duties are the essential tool for protecting American manufacturing, which they believe was devastated by a series of US trade policies enacted since the 1990s.

对于特朗普及其盟友来说，进口税是保护美国制造业的基本工具，他们认为自1990年代以来实施的一系列美国贸易政策摧毁了美国制造业。

Two events during this period are often referenced as watersheds, and were named specifically by Lighthizer – the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1992, and China’s 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization.

这段时期的两个事件经常被认为是分水岭，并被莱特希泽特别提到，1992年签署的北美自由贸易协定和中国2001年加入世界贸易组织。

Whatever the cause, the US share of global manufacturing has fallen dramatically in recent decades. According to a June report from Forbes, that figure has fallen from about 25 per cent in the early 1980s to about 10 per cent today.

无论原因如何，近年来，美国在全球制造业中的份额急剧下降。根据《福布斯》6月份的一份报告，这一数字从20世纪80年代初的约25%下降到今天的约10%。

“I believe strategic decoupling should be our obxtive, the long-term obxtive,” Lighthizer said, underscoring a different stance from the present Joe Biden administration’s focus on “de-risking”.

“我相信战略脱钩应该是我们的目标，长期目标，”莱特希泽说，强调了与现任乔·拜登政府专注于“去风险化”的不同立场。

Such an approach involves “very careful monitoring” of incoming investment instead of scrapping the bilateral economic relationship entirely, he said. As “every dollar of investment” China sends abroad is done with its interests in mind, he added, the same principle should guide the US.

这种方法涉及对进入投资的“非常仔细的监控”，而不是完全废除双边经济关系。他补充说，由于中国向国外派出的“每一美元投资”都是以其利益为导向，美国也应该以同样的原则为指导。

However, some economists have argued, any future tariffs under a second Trump term will be imposed with one goal in mind – improved competitiveness in the global marketplace.

然而，一些经济学家认为，特朗普第二任期内的任何未来关税都将以一个目标为导向——提高全球市场竞争力。

“Regardless of what Trump claims as the goal, whether it’s protecting workers in the manufacturing sector or decoupling from China,” said Ju Jiandong, an expert on the US-China trade conflict and a professor of finance at Tsinghua University, “the core obxtive is to compete for global market share.”
The larger the scale of a hi-tech industry, the higher the productivity and profit, he said in a webinar on global economy and world order organised by Fudan University on November 11.“These profits then feed back into innovation, creating a positive cycle. This is why the US is determined to compete for a larger market share in the hi-tech sector,” Ju said. “The same logic applies to manufacturing.”

“无论特朗普声称的目标是什么，无论是保护制造业工人还是与中国脱钩，”清华大学中美贸易冲突专家、金融学教授鞠建东在复旦大学11月11日举办的全球经济与世界秩序网络研讨会上说，“特朗普的核心目标是争夺全球市场份额。”
高科技产业的规模越大，生产力和利润就越高，他说。这些利润然后反馈到创新中，形成一个积极的循环。这就是为什么美国决心在高科技领域争夺更大市场份额的原因。制造业也遵循同样的逻辑。

Most analysts had predicted tariff increases would come into force as early as the second quarter of 2025, a few months after Trump is sworn in on January 20.

大多数分析师预测，关税增加最早将在2025年第二季度生效，即特朗普在1月20日宣誓就职后几个月。

But in an announcement on his Truth Social platform this week, Trump vowed to implement a tariff of 10 per cent on all Chinese goods via executive order the day of his inauguration – along with blanket taxes of 25 per cent on imports from Canada and Mexico.

但在本周他的Truth Social平台上的一项声明中，特朗普誓言在他就职当天通过行政命令对所有中国商品征收10%的关税——以及对加拿大和墨西哥进口商品征收25%的统一税。

This timeline was presaged by Goldman Sachs in its recent China 2025 Outlook report, which said duties on Chinese goods could be implemented soon after the start of Trump’s term. The investment bank expected the burden of new taxes to fall mostly on intermediate and capital goods and result in a 20 percentage point increase for the effective tariff rate.

这个时间表在高盛最近的中国2025年展望报告中已经预示了，该报告称对中国商品的关税可能在特朗普任期开始后不久实施。投资银行预计新税的负担主要落在中间产品和资本货物上，并导致实际关税率上升20个百分点。

Allianz Research had said in a recent note an executive order imposing tariffs could be forthcoming, raising duties to 25 per cent for Chinese imports and 5 per cent for imports from the rest of the world. The researchers had projected Trump would exclude Canada, Mexico and goods deemed critical.

安联研究在最近的一份报告中表示，可能会出台一项行政命令，征收关税，将中国进口商品的关税提高到25%，其他国家的进口商品提高到5%。研究人员预计，特朗普将排除加拿大、墨西哥和被认为关键的商品。

When commenting on the feasibility of sweeping tariffs, Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said the 60 per cent figure may be the “start” of negotiation.

在评论全面关税的可行性时，新加坡国立大学政治学副教授钟雅安表示，60%的数字可能是谈判的“起点”。

“But Trump’s point has been to show that he is tough on China, because he blames it for America’s woes,” he said.

“但特朗普的观点是表明他对中国强硬，因为他将美国的困境归咎于中国，”他说。

Since the first US tariffs were announced, China has retained a relatively stable proportion of world trade. According to figures from the International Monetary Fund, China’s share held steady at 9 to 10 per cent between 2017 and 2019. That rose to 10.31 per cent in 2020, with the trade conflict reaching a turning point after the signing of a phase-one trade deal.

自宣布首批美国关税以来，中国在世界贸易中的比例保持相对稳定。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，2017年至2019年间，中国的份额稳定在9%至10%之间。2020年，这一比例上升到10.31%，贸易冲突在签署第一阶段贸易协议后达到转折点。

China’s position appears to be unchanged even with no reduction in tariffs from the US. Compared to 2018, the average tariff on Chinese goods exported to the United States has gone from 3.8 per cent to over 19.3 per cent, SPDB International said in a research note earlier this month.

即使美国的关税没有减少，中国的地位似乎也没有改变。根据浦发国际本月早些时候的一份研究报告，与2018年相比，中国出口到美国的商品的平均关税从3.8%上升到超过19.3%。

However, the reindustrialization advocated by Trump – and Biden after him – has been somewhat effective in bringing back elements of American manufacturing.

然而，特朗普和拜登之后倡导的再工业化在一定程度上成功地带回了美国制造业的元素。

“Starting in 2022, the manufacturing industry has shown a trend of returning to the US, and some large companies are willing to invest,” said Ju of Tsinghua, quoting a Kearney report.

“从2022年开始，制造业显示出回归美国的趋势，一些大公司愿意投资，”清华大学的鞠建东引用科尔尼的一份报告说。
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“However, whether an efficient manufacturing industry can be formed remains in doubt.”

“然而，是否能形成一个有效的制造业仍然存疑。”

Per data provided by Medius, 69 per cent of surveyed US manufacturers had begun reshoring their supply chains, with 94 per cent of that group reporting success in doing so.

根据Medius提供的数据，69%的受访美国制造商已经开始将供应链回迁，其中94%的公司报告成功回迁。

Apple, for example, said its suppliers had invested more than US$16 billion over the past five years to relocate their China production to several other countries, including the US.

例如，苹果公司表示，其供应商在过去五年中投资超过160亿美元，将其中国生产转移到包括美国在内的其他几个国家。

But Trump’s proposed tariffs may bring different results this time.

但特朗普提出的关税这次可能会带来不同的结果。

A blanket tariff would mean the inclusion of Southeast Asia and Latin America – the two regions that have benefited most from recent reshoring and nearshoring efforts – to ensure all possible investment returns to the US.

全面的关税将意味着包括东南亚和拉丁美洲——这两个地区是最近回迁和近岸外包努力中受益最多的地区——以确保所有可能的投资回到美国。

China’s trade resilience during the trade war’s first salvoes can be attributed to its re-routing of supply lines through countries like Vietnam and Mexico before exporting to the US, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group.

中国在贸易战初期的贸易韧性可归因于其通过越南和墨西哥等国家重新路由供应链，然后出口到美国，麦格理集团首席中国经济学家胡伟俊说。

According to David Seif, Nomura’s chief economist for developed markets, tariffs under Trump’s next term will be broader than his first, where import taxes were specific to countries or products.

根据野村证券发达市场首席经济学家大卫·赛夫的说法，特朗普下一个任期内的关税将比他的第一个任期范围更广，当时的进口税具体针对国家或产品。

The tariffs that Trump has proposed for China and the rest of the world during his second term would have “the biggest effect on prices” in the US, Seif said, echoing concerns from other economists the duties would drive up inflation.

特朗普在第二任期内为中国和世界其他国家提议的关税将对美国的“价格产生最大影响”，赛夫说，他与其他经济学家的担忧相呼应，即关税将推高通胀。

But Lighthizer insisted in his talk at ISI the notion that tariffs are inflationary is wrong.

但莱特希泽在ISI的演讲中坚持认为关税具有通胀性这一观点是错误的。

“They are a production increasing tool,” he said. “If you increase production you’re going to end up having an anti-inflationary effect, not a pro-inflationary effect.”

“它们是一种增加生产的工具，”他说。“如果你增加生产，你最终会产生一种反通胀效应，而不是通胀效应。”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, one of Trump’s most high-profile supporters and donors from the business world, said the US should “be careful with tariffs” in an interview made public on the eve of Trump’s victory.

特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克，特朗普商业界最知名的支持者和捐助者之一，在特朗普胜选前夕的一次采访中说，美国应该“小心关税”。
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“I think we want to be thoughtful about tariffs and give companies a ramp … I do generally agree that America should do more manufacturing,” he said in a podcast hosted by American comedian Joe Rogan.

“我认为我们要对关税深思熟虑，并为公司提供一个过渡期……我总体上同意美国应该做更多的制造业，”他在美国喜剧演员乔·罗根主持的播客中说道。

After Trump’s election, Musk has been appointed to co-chair a new “department of government efficiency” tasked with cutting administrative waste.

在特朗普当选后，马斯克被任命为新成立的“政府效率部”联席主任，负责削减行政浪费。

While urging tariffs to be “predictable” so companies can make changes to their operations accordingly, he also pointed out that it was impossible for the US to make everything on its own.

在敦促关税“可预测”，以便公司能够相应地改变其运营的同时，他还指出，美国不可能独自制造所有东西。

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