QA问答:印度有可能获得比中国更好的未来吗?
2025-04-03 童言无忌 3384
正文翻译
Is there a chance that India will get a better future than China?

印度有可能获得比中国更好的未来吗?

评论翻译
Harsh Bhardwaj
I ran a mathematical model to estimate Indias Gross Domestic Product between 2025 and 2065
Anyone who has done Data Driven Analysis in finance would see that I have applied the Monte Carlo and the GBM elimination
The result showed me that Indias Gross Domestic Product would reach between 12 to 16 Trillion Dollars by 2065 by when the Population would reach between 1.63 to 1.71 Billion

我运行了一个数学模型,来估算2025年到2065年间的印度国内生产总值。
任何在金融领域做过数据驱动分析的人都可以看到,我应用了蒙特卡洛和GBM消除法。
结果显示,到2065年,印度的国内生产总值将达到12至16万亿美元,届时人口将达到16.3至17.1亿。


This gives a final estimate of Per Capita contribution to the Gross Domestic Product as between 7000 and 10,000 Dollars
It would keep India a middle income country even after 40 years because India would need at least 15,000 Dollars to qualify for Upper Income (OECD) compounded to 2065

这个模型给出了对印度人均国内生产总值的最终估计,在7000至10000美元之间。
按照这个估算,就算到了40年后,印度也只能维持在中等收入国家的水平,因为到了2065年,印度需要通过复利获得至少15000美元的人均才能进入高等收入国家(经合组织)的水平。

Running the same on China, even with a demographic drag , the Gross Domestic Product by 2065 was estimated to reach between 31 to 37 Trillion Dollars and the Population between 1 Billion to 1.3 Billion People giving a Per Capita Contribution to the Gross Domestic Product as between 24,000 and 37,000 Dollars
It would keep China in the upper levels of a High Income Country with an outside chance of even becoming a Developed Economy

中国也是如此,就算有人口拖累,到2065年,中国国内生产总值估计将达到31至37万亿美元,人口在10亿至13亿之间,人均国内生产总值将在24000至37000美元之间。
这将使中国保持在高收入国家的较高水平,甚至有机会成为发达经济体。


These models are skewed very optimistically with India and very much pessimistic with China following the normal ‘American Economic Assumptions'. The more positive models estimate Chinese Gross Domestic Product to exceed 40 Trillion Dollars Or even 45 Trillion Dollars during this period

这个模型遵循正常的“美国经济假设”,对印度是乐观模式,对中国是悲观模式。如果对中国采用更积极的模型估计,在此期间,中国国内生产总值将超过40万亿美元,甚至超过45万亿美元。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Mathematical Models are not completely accurate but the trends are unmistakable
India would require a miracle to escape the middle income trap
China has already reached the Upper Income and reaching High Income is a foregone conclusion

数学模型并不会完全准确,但趋势是明确的。
印度需要奇迹才能摆脱中等收入陷阱。
中国已经达到了高等收入水平,实现高收入已成定局。

So unless a Berlin Wall or Plaza Accords moment occurs, India can never overtake or even come close to China
At the peak of saturation, in the best case, India would have a per capita contribution to the Gross Domestic Product to be at 40 per cent of where China would be and in the worst case at the same 16 per cent where things stand today

因此,除非出现柏林墙或广场协议这样的事情,否则印度将永远无法超越中国,甚至无法接近。
计算最饱和,最好的情况,印度国内生产总值的人均将是中国的40%,在最坏的情况下是当前中国的16%。

The biggest question for modelling analysts is on whether China can hope to beat the States
Its a coin flip for the moment

建模分析师面临的最大问题是,中国是否有希望击败美国。
这是决定一切的关键。

Kevin Lam
There is NO coin flip. China will beat the US in all sectors and industries.
What the mathematical model does not and cannot delineate is how the global trade and currency regime will transform after the ascendency of China.
This means that actual income for China will be A LOT higher than $45k, as the purchasing power of the RMB will be drastically amplified once USD is no longer the only global reserve currency.
Additionally, once US loses the USD’s preeminence, all the federal programs will wane.

不会有反转。中国将在所有领域和行业击败美国。
数学模型没有也不能描述的是,在中国崛起后,全球贸易和货币制度将如何转变。
这意味着中国的实际收入将远远高于45万亿美元,因为一旦美元不再是唯一的全球储备货币,人民币的购买力将大大增强。
此外,一旦美国失去美元的主导地位,所有的联邦项目都将衰落。

Just Travelling
It’s not going to happen in this lifetime .

你说的这些,这辈子也不会发生。

Kevin Lam
5 years at the worst case, 10 years max.

最糟糕的情况下5年,最长不超过10年。

L.K.
Maybe a little optimistic, but the result is certain.

也许有点乐观,但结果是肯定的。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Kevin Lam
The ONLY way US extends the timeline or result in a “soft landing” is working out a deal with China.
There is no other way.
From China’s perspective, it is better to let US fall hard on its face before crawling back, begging for a deal.
So a precipitous decline is ascertain. In fact, everything Trump is doing is speed run to that inevitability .

美国延长衰落时间表或实现“软着陆”的唯一途径,就是与中国达成协议。
没有别的办法了。
从中国的角度来看,最好是让美国在爬回来祈求达成协议之前,先狠狠地摔在地上。
因此,可以确定的是,一定会出现急剧下降。事实上,特朗普所做的一切都是在向这种必然加速。

Kent Chang
You must not expect the live beyond early 2030’s. China’s GDP can exceed the US today in USD/nominal terms just by announcing they are switching to SNA to calculate GDP. China’s GDP is grossly underestimated today because it is using a very outdated Soviet accounting system called MNP. This is why China’s GDP is so fudgeable. China’s economy is already much bigger than the US. Short-lived frogs at bottom of a deep well from the 1950’s are getting fewer and fewer each year. Given the trend, you must be feeling miserable. For you, that misery is never ending as you well know despite all the denials.

你就别指望能活到2030年之后了。中国的国内生产总值如今已经超过美国了,如果中国用SNA来计算GDP,而不是用美元/名义价值计算的话。
如今,中国的国内生产总值被严重低估,因为它使用的是一种非常过时的苏联会计体系,称为MNP。
这就是为什么中国的GDP如此难以捉摸的原因。中国的经济已经比美国大得多。
20世纪50年代以来,深井底部的短命青蛙每年都在减少。
鉴于这种趋势,你一定感到很痛苦。对你来说,这种痛苦永远不会结束,你自己也知道的,尽管你否认了这一切。

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Just Travelling
Actually given Quora is full of CPC people all these figures are debatable .

事实上,鉴于Quora上到处都是G党,所有这些数字都是有争议的。

Yi Li
It's hard for India to overtake China, but there's still a chance to reach China's level in just two steps.
Step 1: Declare war on China.
Step 2: Declare defeat and surrender and join China, then it can reach the same level’s future as China.

印度很难超越中国,但仍然有机会用两步达到中国的水平。
第一步:向中国宣战。
第二步:宣布失败和投降,加入中国,然后它就可以达到与中国相同的未来水平了。

Or there is another way to be able to overtake China within 200 years.
In the first 100 years, when more than 20 million of India's elite are prepared to sacrifice everything they have just for the ideals and beliefs that built the country, then India has the basis to overtake China.
Then in the next 100 years, if more than a billion people are willing to endure poverty, blockade, isolation and threats, and in the midst of poverty and destitution, regardless of personal gains and losses, they will use sweat and hard work to complete the foundation of industrialisation and the most primitive and helpless accumulation, so as to enable future generations to live in a dignified life with no worries and no food, then India will have surpassed China in all aspects.

或者,还有另一种方法,这种方法可以让印度在200年内超越中国。
在最初的100年里,需要2000多万印度精英愿意为建设国家的理想和信仰而牺牲他们所拥有的一切,这样,印度就有了超越中国的基础。
然后,在接下来的100年里,需要十亿多印度人愿意忍受贫困、封锁、孤立和威胁,在贫困和赤贫中,不计较个人得失,每个人都愿意用汗水和辛勤劳动来完成工业化的基础和最原始、最无助的积累,一切都是为了让后代能够过上无忧无虑、不会缺衣少食、不会没有尊严的生活,那么印度在各个方面都将超过中国。

Or reject racial hierarchies, unify all races, respect women and acknowledge their status. there is also, maybe, a chance to overtake China.

或者拒绝种姓制度,统一所有种族,尊重女性并承认她们的地位。也许还有超越中国的机会。

Gooloo Ggg
No indian elites would agree to modernisation & the upliftment of hundreds millions poor & lesser indians which once developed may fight, replace the indian elites omg
Indian elites are on the top of the food chain, they definitely want to keep this status quo which they could continue to reap & rape india so Chinese don't be busybody, keep out of india affairs…
BTW indian elites also divert to China bogeyman - indians are poor because of Chinese so indians blame & fight China

没有一个印度精英会同意走向现代化,同意让数亿穷人得到提升,一旦发展起来,印度的小人物可能会战斗,取代印度精英。
印度精英处于食物链的顶端,他们肯定想保持现状,他们可以继续掠夺和强奸印度,所以,中国人不要多管闲事,远离印度事务……
顺便说一句,印度精英们还用中国转移民众的注意力——印度人贫穷是因为中国人,所以印度人责怪并对抗中国。

Goodi Shang
India can certainly have a bright future, but a lot of work needs to be done. The first step is to carry out a proletarian revolution and overthrow the current ruling class. The ruling class in India is selfish and greedy. Their goal is not to build India into a strong and wealthy country, their goal is to have more money, and their goal will never change unless they are killed.

印度当然可以有一个光明的未来,但还有很多工作要做。
第一步是进行无产阶级革命,推翻现在的统治阶级。印度的统治阶级既自私又贪婪。他们的目标不是把印度建设成一个强大而富裕的国家,他们的目标是拥有更多的钱,除非他们被杀,否则他们的目标永远不会改变。

Chan Honming
India needs a complete % people revolution to throw out all their old fashions system like the caste, etc and unite all Indian into one unity. A very tall order.

印度需要一个完整的100%的人民革命。他们需要抛弃他们所有的旧时尚体系,如种姓等,将所有印度人团结成一个统一体。这是一个非常高的要求。

Mr.R
Redistribution of land resources

土地资源再分配

Kadinkai
Overthrowing the government won’t change India’s course.
It’s about economics, finance, infrastructure, energy supply, education and the basics such as food supply and sanitation.
India spends over 20% of its budget just to repay interest on prior loans and this figure is going up rather than down.
That’s affecting India’s ability to build infrastructure, which the country desperately needs to attract investment. Not only are the roads and ports extremely poor, but energy supply is lacking.
What India really needs is manufacturing, which provides a decent salary for under-educated millions. But despite wages are a fraction of Chinese wages, India isn’t attracting manufacturing.

推翻政府不会改变印度的路线。
它涉及经济、金融、基础设施、能源供应、教育以及食品供应和卫生等基础问题。
印度将超过20%的预算用于偿还之前贷款的利息,而且这一数字还在不断上升,而不是下降。
这影响了印度建设基础设施的能力,而该国迫切需要吸引投资。不仅道路和港口极差,而且能源供应也不足。
印度真正需要的是制造业,它可以为受教育程度低的数百万人提供体面的工资。尽管印度的工资只是中国工资的一小部分,但印度还是没有吸引到制造业。

Manufacturing isn’t labour intensive, it’s capital intensive, it’s automated systems, robotics and powered by AI.
That’s why despite much higher labour costs in China, manufacturing remains in China the land of automated manufacturing and robotics.
India has yet to resolve the basics such as secure food supply, 240,000,000 Indians are malnourished and hundreds of millions do not have access to a toilet.

现在的制造业并非劳动密集型产业,而是资本密集型产业,它采用自动化系统、机器人技术,并由人工智能驱动。
这就是为什么尽管中国的劳动力成本要高得多,但制造业仍旧在中国的原因,因为中国成为了自动化制造和机器人技术的发源地。
印度现在连粮食供应、安全等基本问题都尚未解决,24亿印度人营养不良,数亿人无法上厕所。

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Dai Yuexiang
I heard Indian people vote, so enjoy your “democracy” and “freedom” you are already better than China according to some of the western way of thinking

我听说印度人可以投票,所以享受你的“民主”和“自由”吧,根据西方的一些思维模式,你已经比中国好了。

Aswin Ottapilavil
I don’t think either India or China is going to have a bad future. they both seems to be going to a good tomorrow. In the future better co-operation is also expected from both the countries as the economic style of India and china is is getting more similar lately.

我认为印度和中国都不会有糟糕的未来。他们俩的明天似乎都会很好。随着印度和中国的经济风格最近变得越来越相似,未来两国也有望加强合作。

Stuar
Well…
You have to look at the past, present and future.
In the past…. What were India good at? Was there anytime in history that India was strong?
Present: poverty, illiteracy, dysfuntional democracy and government. The bottom of the world in terms of eudcation, economy (GDP/head), system, government efficiency etc..
Future: India has to resolve the largest slums, iliiteracy, poverty, efficiency of the government, mentality of Indian etc. first…

嗯…
你必须审视过去、现在和未来。
过去:印度擅长什么?历史上曾经有过印度强大的时候吗?
当前:贫困、文盲、功能失调的民主和政府。在教育、经济(GDP/人)、制度、政府效率等方面处于世界底部……
未来:印度必须首先解决最大的贫民窟、文盲、贫困、政府效率、印度人心态等问题…

If you look at the Quora and Indian media, India has been performing badly in level 1, and they are talking how good India would be when India is at level 5.
Please move forward to reach level 2, and level 3 first before you can talk how could you perform better in level 2 or level 3.

如果你看看Quora和印度媒体,你会发现,印度现在正处于第1阶段,并且表现不佳,印度人却在讨论印度在第5阶段的时候会表现得有多好。
请先达到第2阶段和第3阶段,然后再谈谈如何在第2阶段或第3阶段表现得更好。

Liang Li
No offense to India, but I think the main opponent of China now is USA.

无意冒犯印度,但我认为中国现在的主要对手是美国。

Mr.wonder
China and India are both important developing countries in the world.
Both countries have ancient history, brilliant traditional culture and huge development opportunities.
If they can cooperate, both countries and peoples will benefit.

中国和印度都是世界上重要的发展中国家。
两国历史悠久,传统文化灿烂,发展机遇巨大。
如果他们能够合作,两国和两国人民都将受益。

Shankara
Firstly, much like the past, the future is vast. There are points in history that the landmasses and people who live in some of the poorest regions of the world today were significantly better off than the same ones in the richest regions of the world today. So, at some point in the future, India or regions in India could be better off than equivalent regions in China.
The point however is that, in our lifetimes, will Indians work to rid our nations of our issues like rampant graft, corruption and ethnic/linguistic/regional strife. That will inherently improve our lives for the better.

首先,就像过去一样,未来是广阔的。
从历史的角度来看,某些今天世界上最贫穷的地区和人民,过去的生活状况要明显好于今天世界上最富裕地区的人民。
因此,在未来的某个时候,印度或印度的地区可能会比中国的同等地区更好。
然而,关键在于,在我们有生之年,印度人是否会努力消除我们国家猖獗的贪污、腐败和种族/语言/地区冲突等问题。这将从本质上改善我们的生活。

很赞 10
收藏