你认为美国关税会导致制造业向印度转移吗?
2025-04-09 兰陵笑笑生 9446
正文翻译
Do you think US Tariffs will shift manufacturing to India?

你认为美国关税会导致制造业向印度转移吗?

Apple announced plans to make more of its iphones in India. Vietnam has sky high tariffs, so does China. India has lower tariffs than them.
Will this shift manufacturing to India? Should we buy manufacturing company stocks?

苹果公司已宣布计划在印度生产更多 iPhone。越南和中国都有高额关税,而印度的关税相对较低。
这会导致制造业向印度转移吗?我们是否应该购买制造业公司的股票?




评论翻译
Naveen_Surya77
likes: 36
on one side , the US guys want production to shift to their country and placing tariffs,most of our factories are from the US and they are biting their nails cause of all that's happening , why ll they come to india?

一方面,美国人希望制造业回流本国并设置关税壁垒。我们印度的很多工厂都来自美国,他们现在正因为这一切而忧心忡忡,那他们为什么要来印度呢?

edward_droger
likes: 26
Because manufacturing in us is too expensive. Also, Trump sometimes says that tarrifs are a negotiation tactic, so if tarrifs will go away eventually then why would companies shift plants to usa. If tarrifs are permanent,then setting up up not just a manufacturing plant but to localise supply chains is going to be a decade long process. If Trump is going to be gone in 4 years,why would companies transfer their plant?

因为在美国本土制造的成本太高了。而且,特朗普有时会说关税只是一种谈判策略。如果关税最终会取消,那公司为什么要费力把工厂迁回美国呢?可如果关税是永久性的,那么要建立的不仅仅是制造工厂,还要实现供应链的本地化,这将是一个长达十年的过程。如果特朗普四年后就可能下台,公司又何必现在转移工厂呢?
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


No-Lobster-8045
likes: 1
I heard he's fighting for his next term too? Ofc he can't coz that's illegal but it's Trump.

我听说他还在争取下一个任期?当然,这不合法,他不可能连任,但毕竟他是特朗普。

Arinupa
likes: 10
They can't shift everything to the US. It'll still be cheaper to make shoes or clothes in a low wage country.
Cheaper here now than in Vietnam with its 90% tariffs or maybe even China.

他们不可能把所有产业都转移回美国。在低工资国家生产鞋子或服装仍然会更便宜。
考虑到越南高达90%的关税,甚至可能比中国还高,现在在印度生产比在那些地方更便宜。

Arlysion
likes: 4
Okay let me address this. If companies want to move manufacturing to US they'll need 4 things. Factories/plants, raw materials, Labor and time.
1. Building new factories/plants doesn't happen over a week. It takes years and a lot of investment. That's still a lot of time where the tariffs will be active and they can't pass all of it on to the consumer so companies won't be posting profits which means the market will decline.
2. Raw materials which the US doesn't make will have to be imported. Say for example textiles. US doesn't grow cotton. They'll need to import it then start plantations and grow cotton which again takes time. Not to mention these raw materials will be far more expensive since disgruntled and downright pissed off countries may not want to export these or will charge insane rates for the exports over a short period.
3. US has a minimum wage law which means labor will be exorbitant for companies trying to increase their profits so even assuming they manage to build factories and import resources they still have have to pay expensive wage in comparison to what they pay right now in china or vietnam or taiwan which again will only hurt profits.
4. Assuming the handful of companies which can invest insane money to do all of the above they still have to find people who will buy these products at a price where the company will make profits. It will take an eternity to be profitable considering all of the above will shoot up inflation to unimaginable levels.
This is the exact reason why I think trump is clueless about how anything works. Companies would lose less money by literally just importing with these tariffs and waiting out his presidency. This is the most likely scenario which will lead to a recession first in the US followed by global markets because of the uncertainty and the lack of money flowing into those markets.
What this means for us if the orange orangutan decides to go down this path from the perspective of the capital markets is a long period of growth stagnation and potentially degrowth because of the importance of trade for every company which directly leads to a long term recession or even a depression.
TLDR : Were fucked. Also sorry for the formatting. On my phone.

好的,让我来分析一下。如果公司想把制造业转移到美国,他们需要四样东西:工厂/厂房、原材料、劳动力和时间。
1. 建新工厂不是一周就能完成的。 这需要数年时间和巨额投资。在这期间,关税将持续生效,而公司无法将所有成本都转嫁给消费者,这意味着公司利润会下降,导致市场萎缩。
2. 美国无法生产的原材料必须进口。 比如纺织品,美国不种棉花。他们需要先进口,然后建立种植园开始种植,这同样需要时间。更不用说,那些心怀不满甚至被激怒的国家可能不愿意出口这些原材料,或者会在短期内收取天价出口费,导致原材料成本飙升。
3. 美国有最低工资法, 这意味着对于想提高利润的公司来说,劳动力成本将极其高昂。因此,即使他们设法建厂并进口了资源,与目前在中国、越南或台湾(地区)支付的工资相比,他们仍需支付高昂的工资,这只会进一步损害利润。
4. 假设少数几家公司有能力投入巨资完成以上所有步骤, 他们仍然需要找到愿意以能让公司盈利的价格购买这些产品的消费者。考虑到上述所有因素都会将通货膨胀推向难以想象的高度,要实现盈利将遥遥无期。
这正是我认为特朗普对事情如何运作一无所知的原因。对于公司而言,在承受这些关税的同时继续进口,并等待他的任期结束,损失反而会更小。最可能出现的情况是,这种不确定性和资金流动缺乏将首先导致美国经济衰退,随后波及全球市场。
从资本市场的角度来看,如果这位“橙色猩猩”(指特朗普)决定走这条路,对我们意味着什么?那就是一段长期的增长停滞,甚至可能是负增长,因为贸易对每家公司都至关重要,这会直接导致长期的经济衰退甚至萧条。
总而言之:我们都玩完了。 另外,手机打字,格式可能不太好,抱歉。

Witty_Active
likes: 1
This is why country’s shouldn’t go to the negotiation table yet, they should wait it out otherwise they will get the short end of the stick.
Even with our tariffs, the calculations showed that it will cost only 75000 Cr, which is not a lot. We spend more than that on free ration every year.

这就是为什么各国现在还不应该坐到谈判桌前,他们应该再等等看,否则会吃亏。
即使加上我们的关税,计算显示对印度的成本也只增加7500亿卢比,这不算多。我们每年在免费口粮上的花费都比这多。

Arlysion
likes: 5
It really doesn't matter if countries negotiate. Trump has to remove the tariffs for any level of normalcy but he won't and he can't because of his ego. Stupidity and ego together is just an amazing combination to laugh at but give it power and you'll have nothing but chaos.

各国是否谈判其实并不重要。特朗普必须取消关税才能恢复一定程度的正常状态,但他不会,也因为他的自负而做不到。愚蠢加上自负本来就是个可笑的组合,但如果赋予其权力,带来的就只有混乱。

Naveen_Surya77
likes: 1
He increased the tariffs cause items will become costly to people , he wants to reduce consumer demand there , his currency will stabelize, this also lets them to control inflation, , he wants to self sustain America , we still dont know the complete motive , they have their plan , we are also entering into an automation era , we have to take in all the factors. Lets see what's up front

他提高关税是因为商品对民众来说会变得昂贵,他想借此降低美国的消费需求,从而稳定美元,这也有助于控制通胀。他想让美国实现自给自足。我们仍然不知道完整的动机,他们有他们的计划。而且,我们也正在进入自动化时代,必须考虑到所有因素。让我们拭目以待吧。

Arlysion
likes: 2
>He increased the tariffs cause items will become costly to people
Tariffs no matter the outcome will make it even more expensive.
I'm just hoping english isn't your strong suit cause if it is and you actually believe what you wrote I can only pity your understanding of things.

“他提高关税是因为商品对民众来说会变得昂贵”
无论结果如何,关税只会让商品变得更贵。
我只能希望英语不是你的强项,因为如果是,而且你真的相信你写的东西,那我只能同情你对事物的理解能力了。

Naveen_Surya77
likes: 1
Okay. lets talk about this question ,whose the largest consumer in the world? USA, it is a profit powerhouse for companies till date but now,whatever step that country takes the world gets affected, with increased tariffs for how long will companies sustain themselves? eg , International apparel brands and manufacturing units in India are asking the govt to give more incentives to buffer the tariffs , Indians are already heated up with the amount of concessions the govt is giving to the companies,with ohenimenal reduction in corporate taxes falling on indian's heads,now this? the best bet the brands can do is put up a shop in USA itself , let all their branches in the world be where they are and continue business.

好的。让我们回到这个问题:世界上最大的消费市场是哪里?美国。至今为止,它一直是公司的利润引擎。但现在,这个国家采取的任何一步都会影响世界。随着关税增加,公司还能维持多久?例如,印度的国际服装品牌和制造单位正要求政府提供更多激励措施来缓冲关税影响。印度民众已经对政府给予公司的各种优惠(比如大幅降低企业税,最终负担落在民众头上)感到不满,现在又来这个?这些品牌能做的最好的选择,可能就是在美​​国本土开店,同时让它们在世界各地的分支机构维持现状,继续运营。

Arlysion
likes: 2
Do you even understand the cost of manufacturing in the US ? Actually scratch that. You don't. I literally explained it too and you still don't get it. I mean I can't understand it for you dude.

你到底明不明白在美国制造的成本有多高?算了,当我没说。你根本不懂。我刚才已经解释得很清楚了,你还是没明白。老兄,我总不能替你去理解吧。

Naveen_Surya77
likes: -1
Let me conclude with this as you asked , hes creating a situation like great depression so that labour costs will fall,every sector out there is insecure with how quick AI is developing itself , they cant continue to be up there when most of the work will be done by machines in the near future. we are looking at automation now. This is just one factor amongst all that is in their mind. Time will tell the result.

既然你问了,那我就这样总结吧:他正在制造一种类似大萧条的局面,目的是让劳动力成本下降。考虑到人工智能发展的速度之快,现在每个行业都感到不安。当大部分工作在不久的将来都将由机器完成时,指传统劳动力模式不可能继续维持现状。我们现在关注的是自动化。这只是他们诸多考量中的一个因素。时间会告诉我们结果。

Arlysion
likes: 1
>hes creating a situation like great depression so that labour costs will fall
This makes no sense. If we get into a situation like that inflation will be in the double digits and labour costs literally won't fall cause there won't be any jobs available. Businesses will be shutting down everywhere because it won't be profitable.
>every sector out there is insecure with how quick AI is developing itself
This is a ridiculous take. Have you seen how an LLM works ? It can't even map out a basic project flow that can be read and understood by humans. AI isn't taking over yet. Still a long way to go and even then I'm more concerned about how our ancient politicians are gonna regulate AI given they can't even regulate basic crap.
And the rest of what you said has nothing to do with tariffs.

“他正在制造一种类似大萧条的局面,目的是让劳动力成本下降”
这完全说不通。如果他们真的陷入那种境地,通胀将达到两位数,劳动力成本根本不会下降,因为根本就没有工作岗位了。由于无法盈利,企业会到处倒闭。
“考虑到人工智能发展的速度之快,现在每个行业都感到不安”
这说法太荒谬了。你见过大语言模型是怎么工作的吗?它甚至无法规划出一个能让人类读懂的基本项目流程。人工智能还没到那个程度,还有很长的路要走。即便到了那一天,我更担心的是我们那些老派政客会如何监管人工智能,毕竟他们连基本的破事都管不好。
而且你后面说的那些,跟关税没什么关系。

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Comprehensive_Air185
likes: 12
Ambani forays into manufacturing look at it what’s happening all getting dusted. These gujjus have built their empire without doing anything just influenced govt policies in their favour. Most of the businesses in India are still run by these Lala businessmen without any spine

看看安巴尼进军制造业的尝试,结果如何?一败涂地。这些古吉拉特商人建立帝国,靠的都不是实干,只是影响政府政策使其对自己有利。印度的大多数企业仍然由这些缺乏骨气的“拉拉商人”(指传统、保守的商人)经营。

Poha_Best_Breakfast
likes: 32
LOL no. Indian policymakers are a joke and companies are scared shitless of GST babus bribe requests.
Even the existing manufacturing players are planning to shut shop. No way new ones are coming. They'd rather set up shop in Antarctica.

哈哈,不可能。印度的政策制定者就是个笑话,公司们对商品及服务税官员索要贿赂的要求怕得要死。
就连现有的制造业者都在计划关门大吉了。新来的根本没戏。他们宁愿去南极洲开厂。

Beneficial-Control22
likes: 11
Yeah cause doing business in India is so easy

是啊,说得好像在印度做生意很容易似的。

Arinupa
likes: -12
It has climbed the rankings over time

印度的营商便利度排名确实随着时间在上升。

Fooled-by-Randomness
likes: 6
Ease of Business ranking is a confirmed scam. Countries could bribe to improve their rankings and we all know who is the Vishwa Goo Roo of corruption and bribes.
On the ground level, there's 0 change. Ask anybody who's tried to get a manufacturing license in the last 2 years.

营商便利度排名已经被证实是个骗局。国家可以花钱买排名,我们都知道谁是腐败和贿赂方面的“世界大师”(Vishwa Goo Roo,讽刺说法)。
在实际层面,根本没有任何改变。你去问问过去两年里尝试申请制造业许可证的人就知道了。

Beneficial-Control22
likes: 2
Still not easy tho. Not better than Vietnam which seems to be getting a lot of traction lately

在印度做生意仍然不容易。比不上越南,越南最近似乎吸引了很多关注。

bootpalishAgain
likes: 8
Lately? Their electronics manufacturing industry is bigger than India.

最近?他们的电子制造业规模已经比印度大了。

edward_droger
likes: 1
Vietnam has 47% tarrif.

越南的关税是47%。

Beneficial-Control22
likes: 3
Okay and? They have mechanisms in place to move away from the US and will probably get closer to china, EU.
They have the option to do that. We don’t.

好吧,那又怎样?他们有相应的机制来摆脱对美国的依赖,并且可能会更靠近中国和欧盟。
他们有这个选项,我们没有。

the_storm_rider
likes: 1
The commission to our babus is ten times more than any tariff.

给我们的官员的“佣金”比任何关税都要高十倍。

piezod
likes: 10
No, our labour lacks basic skills.
Fans and motors are fine, anything beyond that like chips and LCDs, electronics are not easy. Few exceptions exist.
Whybdo you think we import Boat from China?

不,我们的劳动力缺乏基本技能。
生产风扇和马达还行,但更复杂的像芯片、液晶显示器、电子产品就不容易了。当然也有少数例外。
你以为我们为什么从中国进口 Boat(品牌名,指耳机等电子产品)?

khantroversy25
likes: 4
You are day dreaming, india and the rest of the countries are more worried about cheap Chinese dumping.

你在做白日梦。印度和其他国家现在更担心的是廉价的中国商品倾销。

Top_Midnight_68
likes: 2
If the tariffs lasts then maybe rn it seems more like a texas stand-off ...

如果关税持续下去,也许会转移。但现在看起来更像是一场“德州式对峙”(texas stand-off,指僵持不下的局面)...

Arinupa
likes: 1
I think it'll be a full blown trade war. At least with China. If south east asia also gets it, we will stand to benefit.
Our political leaders have good relations with their leaders now. If they play it right it could benefit us somewhat.

我认为这将演变成一场全面的贸易战,至少是与中国的。如果东南亚国家也受到波及,我们将从中受益。
我们的政治领导人现在与他们的领导人关系不错。如果策略得当,我们可能会在某种程度上受益。

Top_Midnight_68
likes: 5
Agreed with everything but the relationship part , Trump doesn't care about it he was like PM is a good friend but they are being hard with us ...
Soo relationship doesn't matter much ... !

其他都同意,但关系那部分不敢苟同。特朗普根本不在乎这个,他曾说过类似“印度总理是个好朋友,但他们在对我们贸易上很强硬”的话...
所以关系没那么重要...!

Arinupa
likes: 1
The relationship matters in that india isn't considering Retaliatory tariffs, so no trade war., neither is israel, and they aren't because of the buddy buddy personal relationship and ideological similarities.
Other countries like Vietnam are communist. Don't see trump being buddies with them
Everyone else is in a trade war.

关系之所以重要,在于印度没有考虑采取报复性关税,所以没有贸易战。以色列也没有,这正是因为领导人之间那种“哥俩好”的个人关系和意识形态上的相似性。
像越南这样的其他国家是共产主义国家,没看到特朗普跟他们称兄道弟。
其他所有国家都陷入了贸易战。

mwid_ptxku
likes: 2
Vietnam already said they are ok with zero tariff for the US.

越南已经表示,他们可以接受对美国零关税。

KanonKaBadla
likes: 1
How?
US placed tarrifs so they can shift manufacturing in US.
How would Indian manufacturing boom in this case?

怎么可能?
美国设置关税是为了把制造业转移回美国本土。
这种情况下,印度制造业怎么可能繁荣起来?

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Arinupa
likes: 1
Because it is still cheaper to make something in a low wage country than in the US. Right now we are the cheaper alternative seeing Vietnam and china are out of the picture.
Manufacturing won't shift to the US anyhow in 4 years. Trumps tariff war will never work. Doomed to fail from the start,
Companies don't care about Trumps patriotic sentiments. They care about bottom line.
Things like some electronics could shift here. Dixon.
And maybe clothing. Since bangladesh has collapsed, Gokaldas exports

因为在低工资国家生产东西仍然比在美国便宜,这一点永远不会变。现在越南和中国基本出局了,我们就成了更便宜的选择。
无论如何,制造业不可能在短短4年内就转移到美国。特朗普的关税战永远不会成功,从一开始就注定失败。
公司不关心特朗普的爱国情怀,他们只关心利润。
像一些电子产品可能会转移到这里,比如 Dixon。
还有服装业可能也会。既然孟加拉国纺织业已经崩溃,Gokaldas Exports 可能会受益。

KanonKaBadla
likes: 1
Here is the thing.
Trump is known to be unpredictable.
In current environment, no company is betting on long game coz Trump can raise tarrifs on India overnight.
Unless Indian manufacturers can meet the demand in next 1-2 months, nothing will happen. There is small window of meeting demand and getting slapped with tarrifs.
No one is willing to play that game.
And India is definitely not known for moving fast.

问题就在这里。
特朗普以其不可预测性而闻名。
在当前环境下,没有公司敢做长期规划,因为特朗普可能一夜之间就对印度加征关税。
除非印度制造商能在未来1-2个月内满足需求,否则什么都不会发生。这是一个很短的窗口期:既要满足需求,又要避免被关税打击。
没人愿意玩这个游戏。
而且印度从来都不以行动迅速著称。

Flaky-Interaction629
likes: 1
Trump has placed the tariffs not Apple! India will now make more IPhones because of tariffs. We will be less impacted.

是特朗普设置的关税,不是苹果公司!因为关税,印度现在将生产更多 iPhone。我们受到的影响会相对较小。

KanonKaBadla
likes: 1
Yea, that's few examples where we already have infra ready to exploit it.
Trump is fickle, he can change the tarrifs overnight and he will coz their aim is not to just harm china, they want to shift manufacturing to their country.

是的,这只是少数几个我们已经拥有基础设施可以利用的例子。
特朗普反复无常,他随时可能改变关税,而且他会的,因为他们的目标不仅仅是打击中国,他们是想把制造业转移回自己的国家。

wolfpack202020
likes: 1
it's too early, wait for official confirmation.

现在说还为时过早,等等官方确认吧。

Organic_420
likes: 1
If you go by trump logic, they want American manufactured products but effect is going to be inflation and breaking of economy while the life's already hard. So demand will certainly fall. So there's no one will be investing anywhere until USA does something with tariffs after it hit them hard.
Also economy isn't favourable in most of the sectors & new huge investments are hard especially with India sometimes being shitty attracting companies.
BYD has huge future but India isn't allowing it to set up a factory. That factory not only will bring a regular car assembly line but also battery recycling and other sectors in the future.
Already established manufacturing units that are known for supplying US is running meh.

如果按照特朗普的逻辑,他们想要美国制造的产品,但结果将是通货膨胀和经济崩溃,而生活本已艰难。所以需求肯定会下降。因此,在美国因为关税受到重创并采取行动之前,没有人会在任何地方进行投资。
而且,大多数行业的经济形势并不乐观,进行新的巨额投资很困难,尤其是在印度有时在吸引公司方面表现很差的情况下。
比亚迪有巨大的未来,但印度不允许它建厂。那家工厂不仅会带来常规的汽车装配线,未来还可能涉及电池回收和其他领域。
那些已经建立起来、以供应美国市场闻名的制造单位,现在也表现平平。

kedar0480
likes: 1
Let’s understand how dollar works.. tariffs going to affect all countries who are part of the list. Let’s focus on Asian market, what’s our best that being export to USA is under pressure. So even less tarrif for India will affect vice versa as you said to setup plants in india will take more than
5 years till chinies will find out escape route

让我们理解一下美元是如何运作的……关税将影响名单上的所有国家。让我们关注亚洲市场,我们向美国出口的最佳产品正面临压力。所以,即使印度的关税较低,也会受到反向影响,就像你说的,在印度建厂需要超过5年时间,到那时中国可能已经找到了规避的途径。

Life_Importance_2494
likes: 1
Trump’s entire policy was to create more jobs for americans and use the tariff tactic to shift production in the us thus boosting employment but it would make more sense for those countries to shift production where labour is cheap

特朗普的整个政策就是为美国人创造更多就业机会,并利用关税策略将生产转移回美国,从而促进就业。但对那些公司来说,将生产转移到劳动力廉价的地方才更合乎逻辑。

Arinupa
likes: 2
His plan will never work. Companies shift to next viable cheap location, which is India. I can't think of any other alternative country not as badly affected by tariffs than us.

他的计划永远不会成功。公司会转移到下一个可行的廉价地点,那就是印度。我想不出还有哪个替代国家受关税影响不像我们这么小。

StonKmSHiTLorD
likes: 1
But do we have skilled labour’s like china and vietnam?

但是我们有像中国和越南那样熟练的劳动力吗?

Arinupa
likes: 1
We have labour but they aren't that skilled. Certainly cheap. Companies can train the labour.

我们有劳动力,但他们没那么熟练。不过肯定便宜。公司可以培训劳动力。

microwaved_fully
likes: 1
It won't but even if more manufacturing comes in, it will result in more exports widening the trade deficit and thus more tariffs. India will not succeed at manufacturing.

制造业不会大规模转移到印度。但即使有更多制造业进来,也会导致更多出口,扩大贸易逆差,从而招致更多关税。印度在制造业方面不会成功。

microwaved_fully
likes: 1
It didn't happen in the last 10 years. Why would it happen now? There are good reasons as to why India won't succeed in manufacturing. Vietnam is still very much in the race. Dixon is highly overvalued and they don't even export a lot. Their main market is India.

过去10年都没有发生大规模转移,为什么现在会发生?印度无法在制造业取得成功是有充分理由的。越南仍然非常有竞争力。Dixon 的估值过高,而且他们出口量并不大,主要市场还是印度。

Character-Echidna346
likes: 1
Not at all what is going to happen.
1. Stock market crash would itself leave companies much less capital to invest elsewhere. They wouldn't have money to invest in India.
2. 26% tariffs still apply to India and then there are tariffs over rest of the world. All that happens if these tariffs stick are US consumer purchasing power is decimated and factories close or scale back production everywhere.
No such shift is going to happen, Indian manufacturing would just take a smaller hit than China.

根本不会发生这种事。
1. 股市崩盘本身就会让公司缺乏资金去其他地方投资。他们将没有钱在印度投资。
2. 26%的关税仍然适用于印度,而且还有针对世界其他地区的关税。如果这些关税持续下去,唯一的结果就是美国消费者的购买力被摧毁,世界各地的工厂关闭或缩减生产。
不会发生这样的转移,印度制造业受到的打击只会比中国小一些。

the_storm_rider
likes: 1
No. The monthly commissions to the babus, endless meaningless bureaucracy and productivity loss due to irregular electricity and polluted water will cost way more than the tariffs.

不。给官员的月度“佣金”、无休止且毫无意义的官僚程序,以及由于电力不稳和水污染造成的生产力损失,这些成本远超关税。

ToothCute6156
likes: 1
Not happening or shifting to india, ground realities of india not conducive to manufacturing, manufacturing is long race horse requires team work from everyone,so many redtape in india,that is reason services flourished in india,now that also sunseting.

不会发生转移到印度的情况。印度的现实情况不利于制造业发展。制造业是长跑,需要所有环节的团队合作。印度有太多的官僚障碍,这就是为什么服务业在印度蓬勃发展的原因,但现在服务业也日渐式微了。

unemployeddumbass
likes: 1
Ghantaa it will shift. Same story I read during covid nothing happened then nothing will happen now

根本不可能转移。新冠疫情期间我就读到过同样的故事,当时什么都没发生,现在也不会发生。

strthrowreg
likes: 1
Indian labour has been cheaper than China for decades now. India has reduced corporate taxes to an unprecedentedly low value of 22%. Still companies did not move. In the best globalisation environment. Why will they do now?
US is not really that much more expensive compared to China to be honest. Especially now when factories are 60,70, 80% automated. It is the regulations that companies don't want to comply with. Green regulations. Labor regulations. Trump is going to get rid of a lot of those (drill, baby drill motto).

几十年来,印度的劳动力一直比中国便宜。印度已将企业税降至前所未有的22%低水平。即便如此,公司也没有搬过来,那还是在全球化环境最好的时候。他们现在为什么要搬呢?
老实说,与中国相比,美国的制造成本并没有高出那么多,尤其是现在工厂自动化程度达到60%、70%、80%的情况下。公司真正不想遵守的是各种法规:环保法规、劳工法规。特朗普打算废除其中很多法规(比如他的“钻探吧,宝贝,钻探吧”口号)。

adarshsingh87
likes: 1
this is not the first time companies were incentivized to leave china. last time this happened, most of them went to Thailand, Vietnam and Mexico so who knows

这已经不是第一次激励公司离开中国了。上次发生这种情况时,大多数公司去了泰国、越南和墨西哥,所以谁知道这次会怎样呢。

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