网帖翻译

Justin, great to see you as always. Your reaction to this deal to come up with a longer-term deal later? Let me give you a short-term reaction and a longer run. The short-term reaction is this is very good news. Our tariffs on China were previously so high it was effectively an embargo. We don't actually have to travel to Geneva for the U.S. government to decide to cut the rate at which it taxes Americans for importing goods from China, but I'm glad that it did, and it's going to create a whole lot of calm for the next few days. The medium-run thing to worry about is, at the moment, the half-life of a tariff announced from the White House is around six to eight days. So as encouraged as I am that this is the movement, the direction in which it's moving, I'm not sure that businesses can be confident that we're going to hit the more harmonious times that we had prior to this administration.

主持人：
Justin，很高兴再次见到你。你对这个达成更长期协议的协议有何反应？
评论员：
让我给你一个短期影响和一个长期影响。
短期影响是，这是一个非常好的消息。我们对中国的关税之前非常高，实际上相当于禁运。美国政府不需要去日内瓦就能决定降低对从中国进口商品征税的税率，我很高兴他们这样做了，这将在未来几天内平复经济冲击。
中期需要担心的是，目前白宫宣布的关税的“半衰期”大约是六到八天。因此，尽管我对这个趋势感到鼓舞，即它正在朝着这个方向发展，但我不确定企业能否确信我们将回到本届政府之前更加和谐的时期。

The director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, says that China made certain concessions when it came to allowing U.S. exporters to enter the Chinese market or certain aspects of the Chinese market. I wonder what you make of that. Is that a win that the White House can point to to justify levying these tariffs to begin with? It's not a win, and it's not a justification, but more to the point. When the White House says, we got some concessions, but I'm not telling you what they are, they told us this about the Britain-U.K. deal, and it turns out that that Britain-U.K. Sorry, the U.K.-U.S. deal, that was actually not a deal. It was an agreement to have an agreement at some point in the future. So if it's not written down and signed and they're not willing to show us that, then I'm not sure I believe it.

主持人：
国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特说，中国在允许美国出口商进入中国市场或中国市场的某些方面做出了某些让步。我想知道你对此有何看法。白宫是否可以指出这是他们征收这些关税的理由？
评论员：
这不是胜利，也不是理由。更重要的是，当白宫说，我们得到了一些让步，但我不会告诉你是什么，他们在英国-美国协议上也这样告诉我们，结果那个英国-美国协议……抱歉，实际上不是协议。它是在未来某个时候达成协议的协议。因此，如果没有书面记录和签署，并且他们不愿意向我们展示，那么我不确定我是否可以相信。

I do wonder what you think might make some of these tariffs worth it. In other words, what your guideposts are for justifying the trade war that this White House has launched, if they do, in fact, make it so that supply chains are reconfigured and the U.S. is less reliant on China as Treasury Secretary Scott Besson is suggesting the administration will continue to pursue. Do you see that as a win? Boris, let's not tie ourselves up in knots trying to make sense of something that we can't make sense of. Look, every time the administration has moved towards more tariffs, the markets have fallen. They're very unhappy about this. They think it undermines the profitability of American business. Every time the administration walks back, markets cheer. They think that that's useful economic policy, as does most of the economics establishment.

主持人：
我想知道你会认为什么那些条件能使这些关税措施是有意义的。换句话说，如果你认为白宫发动的贸易战是合理的，那么你的指导原则是什么，如果他们确实使供应链重新配置，美国对中国的依赖减少，就像财政部长斯科特·贝森建议的那样。你认为这是胜利吗？
评论员：
Boris，让我们不要纠结于试图理解我们无法理解的事情。看，每次政府采取更多关税措施时，市场都会下跌。他们对此非常不高兴。他们认为这削弱了美国企业的盈利能力。每次政府退缩时，市场都会欢呼。他们认为这是有用的经济政策，大多数经济学家也这样认为。

Look, the long-run damage here, I think, is really worth emphasizing. Let me take you back. Remember during COVID, global supply chains became fractured, and there became a lot of talk that what we needed was more robust, reliable supply. There was talk of on-shoring and friend-shoring. Well, something similar is happening, but it's happening in other countries, and it's not caused by a virus. It's caused by the White House. The United States has shown itself to be an unreliable trading partner, and more to the point, its tariff policies change day to day and week to week. And as a result, our foreign trading partners are looking for more robust, more stable, more reliable trading partners. And so already they're starting to diversify away from the United States.

评论员：
看，我认为这里的长期损害确实值得强调。让我带你回顾一下。还记得在新冠疫情期间，全球供应链变得支离破碎，人们开始谈论我们需要更强大、更可靠的供应。有关于在岸和友岸的讨论。嗯，类似的事情正在发生，但它发生在其他国家，而且不是由病毒引起的。它是由白宫引起的。美国已经证明自己是一个不可靠的贸易伙伴，更重要的是，它的关税政策每天和每周都在变化。因此，我们的外国贸易伙伴正在寻找更强大、更稳定、更可靠的贸易伙伴。因此，他们已经开始远离美国。

If the next dozen-plus deals look like what's been struck between the U.S. and the U.K. and the U.S. and China, what do you imagine this is going to do to the global economy? Is it actually going to affect some great change? Not much. So let me characterize the British deal, because I think it's the one that sets the standard for the rest of the world except for China. The British deal is basically the U.S. has decided, President Trump has decided, in fact, the tariffs on every other country around the world will be 10 percent. I want you to put that in a big sheet of paper. Let's make it 48-point font. And next to that, there's a little asterisk. The little asterisk says, if you're willing to come to the Rose Garden and put on a dog and pony show and make the president feel good, we'll make a few little carve-outs for you as well.

主持人：
如果接下来的十几份协议看起来像美国与英国和美国与中国达成的协议，你认为这将对全球经济产生什么影响？它是否真的会带来一些重大的变化？
评论员：
影响不大。让我来描述一下英国的协议，因为我认为它为世界其他国家（中国除外）树立了标准。英国的协议基本上是美国决定，事实上是特朗普总统决定，对世界其他国家的关税将为10%。我希望你把它写在一张大纸上。让我们用48号字体。在旁边，有一个小星号。小星号说，如果你愿意来玫瑰园，表演一场马戏，让总统感觉良好，我们也会为你提供一些小的优待。

But when you look at the details of the British deal, the 10 percent's the most important part. The asterisk turns out to be incredibly small. There really were no important, economically important, carve-outs. And so I think other countries around the world right now are looking at this, and they're understanding that the U.S. government doesn't want Americans buying stuff from them, and so they may be looking elsewhere for trading partners. President Trump hitting pause on his trade war with China. The U.S. and China agreed to roll back drastically the tariffs they've slapped on each other's exports, but only for 90 days while they negotiate a longer deal. Now, markets are rallying on the news. The Dow up nearly 1,000 points. Investors are very eager. Eager to see the world's two biggest economies stepping back from the brink.

评论员：
但当你看英国协议的细节时，10%是最重要的部分。星号实际上非常小。实际上不重要的、经济上重要的例外。因此，我认为世界其他国家现在正在关注这一点，他们明白美国政府不希望美国人从他们那里购买东西，因此他们可能会在其他地方寻找贸易伙伴。
————另一段CNN报道————

主持人：
特朗普总统暂停了与中国的贸易战。美国和中国同意大幅撤回对彼此出口商品征收的关税，但仅限于90天，同时他们谈判达成更长期的协议。现在，市场因这个消息而反弹。道琼斯指数上涨近1000点。投资者非常渴望。渴望看到世界上两个最大的经济体从（危险）边缘退后。

The U.S. is slashing its tariff from 145 percent to 30 percent, still historically high. China will lower its tariffs on U.S. goods from 125 to 10 percent. So is this a win for the president? I'm back with my panel. Tia, is this a win for the president? I mean, I guess today is a win. But overall, is it a win? Not necessarily, because you just mentioned the tariffs on goods from China are still historically high, which means consumers in America are still paying more for things than they did previous to the Trump administration. And again, there's still so much uncertainty about what this deal will look like and what will happen after a 90-day pause. And I think a lot of people, even allies of Donald Trump, are still struggling to figure out what is he trying to accomplish with these tariffs.

主持人：
美国将关税从145%降至30%，仍然是历史高位。中国将对美国商品的关税从125%降至10%。那么，这是总统的胜利吗？Tina?
评论员A:
我想今天是胜利。但总体上是胜利吗？不一定，因为你刚才提到对来自中国的商品的关税仍然是历史高位，这意味着美国消费者仍然比特朗普政府之前支付更多的钱。而且，关于这个协议将是什么样子以及90天暂停后会发生什么，仍然存在很多不确定性。我认为很多人，甚至唐纳德·特朗普的盟友，仍在努力弄清楚他试图通过这些关税实现什么。

Is he trying to move manufacturing to the U.S.? Is he trying to bully foreign countries? Is he trying to turn tariffs into better trade deals? We still don't know. I don't know how we can consider that a win. There was some certainty prior today, which is that if the tariff remained at 145 percent, there was no trade, and we were certainly headed for an economic recession. That was the certainty. So I agree there is some uncertainty now, but this is clearly welcome news to the markets. And obviously, this is Donald Trump trying to put forth the vision that he's had for decades about tariffs. And it's just, even like I said, it's a win for the president. It's a win for the president. It's a win for the president.

评论员A：
他是想将制造业转移到美国吗？他是想欺负外国吗？他是想将关税转化为更好的贸易协议吗？我们仍然不知道。我不知道我们怎么能认为这是胜利。
评论员B接话：
今天之前有一些确定性，即如果关税保持在145%，就没有贸易了，我们肯定会走向经济衰退。那是确定性的。所以我同意现在有一些不确定性，但这对市场来说显然是受欢迎的消息。显然，这是唐纳德·特朗普试图提出他几十年来对关税的愿景。就像我说的，这对总统来说是胜利。这是总统的胜利。

I'm listening to the way you frx the conversation, Manu, when you say he's putting a pause on his trade war. If he had come out day one and said, I'm putting a 30 percent tariff on China, we would call that a trade war, not a pause on a trade war, right? But he had set this up. So two things can be true here. It is true that he made this mess and put the economy into this tailspin and is now cleaning it up to some degree to good reviews from the markets. It is also true that we do not yet know if this is going to work and achieve the goals that we have set for the future. His ultimate goals here, that that remains to be seen. And that's where the uncertainty exists.

评论员B：
如果他第一天出来说，我对中国征收30%的关税，我们会称那为贸易战，而不是贸易战的暂停，对吧？但他已经这样做了。所以这里有两件事可能是真的。是他制造了这个混乱，使经济陷入困境，现在在某种程度上清理它，市场给予了好评。同样，我们还不知道这是否会奏效并实现我们为未来设定的目标。他在这里的最终目标，还有待观察。这就是不确定性所在。

And so Trump frxd it this morning when speaking at the White House before he left on this foreign trip. It would go up substantially higher. You know, at 145, you're really decoupling because nobody's going to buy. But they can go. They got very high because of additional tariffs. I applied during the course because of fentanyl and other things. But no, but they go substantially higher. He's saying they go. Substantially higher if they can't get a deal within 90 days. So perhaps short lived win. Yeah. And perhaps trying to keep the pressure on for his negotiators to come to some sort of an agreement with with the Chinese to try to try to calm this trade war. But yes, I mean, we've seen how his tariff policy through the beginning of the administration has been all over the all over the place.

主持人：
所以特朗普今天早上在离开这次外国之行之前在白宫讲话时这样说的。

特朗普讲话视频片段：
如果他们不能在90天内达成协议，它会大幅上升。你知道，在145%时，你已经脱钩了，因为没有人会购买的。（即便如此，如果没有达成协议）关税还会继续提高。
主持人：
他说它们因为额外的关税而变得非常高。所以也许是短暂的胜利。
评论员C：
也许是试图对他的谈判代表施加压力，与中国达成某种协议，试图平息这场贸易战。我的意思是，我们已经看到他的关税政策在政府开始时就一直很混乱。

That, you know, it's on, it's off, it's on this sector, it's not on this sector. And it's just kind of that chaos that he himself has created that he is now then scaling back to David's point. I did think just as a Congress note, and as a Congress nerd, and as a side note, he said, he said, he also said this morning that he was going to raise so much money from all of his actions, whether it's the tariffs, or with the prescxtion drug pricing order that he announced this morning that he told Speaker Johnson and Leader Thune that you can use this to score your big tax bill. I don't know if the Congressional Budget Office would agree on that. But I also do think that or the or the hardliners in the House.

评论员C：
你知道，它开了，它关了，它涉及这个产业，它不涉及这个产业。这就是他自己制造的混乱，他现在正在缩减。我确实想，作为一个国会所指出的，他将从他的所有行动中筹集大量钱，无论是关税，还是他今天早上宣布的处方药定价令，他告诉约翰逊议长和图恩领袖，你可以用这个来为你们的大税收法案打分。我不知道国会预算办公室是否会同意这一点。但我也认为，或者众议院的强硬派。

But I also do think to the that speaks to the fact that he's having with his big agenda on Capitol Hill, how to make all those numbers work. And those numbers are pretty complicated. And Stephen, you wrote about this over the weekend about the negotiations that is happening behind the scenes. And you talk about any negotiation at any time, be blown up by Trump's unorthodox and volatile approach and his capriciousness hangs over all the negotiations. That's true. At the same time that unorthodox style could unlock some openings that other presidents who act in a more traditional way.

评论员C：
但我也认为，这表明他正在国会山的大议程中，如何使所有这些数字起作用。这些数字非常复杂。
主持人：
斯蒂芬，你在周末写过关于幕后谈判的文章。你谈到任何谈判在任何时候都可能被特朗普的非正统和波动的方法所破坏，他的反复无常笼罩在所有谈判中。
评论员D：
这是事实。同时，这种非正统的风格可能会开启一些以更传统方式行事的其他总统无法获得的机会。

That's true. At the same time that unorthodox style could unlock some openings that other presidents who act in a more traditional way. Perhaps wouldn't be able to access. There's not a huge amount of evidence, especially from his first term, that that actually worked. Remember when he met Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader? That was a great series of photo ops and summits, but it didn't stop the nuclear program. To your point as well, I think the the White House says what they're doing here is a three legged stool. You do rebalance trade with tariffs. You bring a load of revenue. You use that revenue to create some of the tax cuts beyond the extension of the tax cuts. You know, no tax on tips, et cetera. And then you do deregulation.

评论员D：
但从他的第一任期来看，没有足够的证据表明这实际上有效。还记得他会见朝鲜领导人金正恩吗？那是一系列很棒的拍照机会和峰会，但它并没有阻止核计划。关于你的观点，我认为白宫说他们在这里做的是一个三条腿的凳子。你用关税重新平衡贸易。你带来大量的收入。你用这些收入来创造一些税收减免，超越税收减免的延期。你知道，对小费不征税，等等。然后你还放松监管。

And they say by the end of the year, the economy is going to take off like a rocket. I think there's a lot of reason to question whether that's true, but we're going to find out. I mean, that's the thing that they're trying to argue with this long term strategy here, passing this bill in that that is now just being released in the House that deals with a whole wide range of issues. But getting a big tax deal through and then having it implemented in the American public feel the effect of, as in addition to all these trade deals, that's going to take a significant amount of time. Well, beyond the midterms of next year, a lot of time in what they're banking on is that people will stick with them.

评论员D：
他们说，到年底，经济将像火箭一样起飞。我认为有很多理由质疑这是否属实，但我们会继续观察的。
主持人：
他们试图用这个长期战略来争论这一点，通过这个法案，现在正在众议院发布，涉及各种问题。但通过一个大的税收协议，然后让美国公众感受到它的影响，以及所有这些贸易协议，这将需要大量的时间。嗯，远超明年的中期选举……
评论员A：
远超明年的中期选举……他们寄希望于人们会坚持支持他们。

And I don't know if that's going to be the case again. We've in the past week not just heard about, you know, don't worry that the economy isn't rebounding in the way Trump promised. But now, you know, your kids might not have the Christmas that they want and things like that. And again, we're talking already about the midterms and there are a lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill who are just as concerned. There are voters who are waiting for the Trump administration to make good on its promises and hearing, hey, there's going to be some more pain before it gets better, is not what they were promised.

评论员A：
我不知道这是否会再次发生。我们在过去一周不仅听到了，你知道，不要担心经济没有像特朗普承诺的那样反弹。但现在，你的孩子们可能不会有他们想要的圣诞节礼物之类的事情。而且，我们已经在谈论中期选举，国会山上有很多共和党人同样担心。有选民在等待特朗普政府兑现其承诺——听着，嘿，在好转之前会有更多的痛苦。但这不是他们被承诺的。
（完）