如何摆脱联邦债务陷阱
正文翻译
The U.S. national debt just passed $36 trillion, only four months after it passed $35 trillion and up $2 trillion for the year. Third quarter data is not yet available, but interest payments as a percent of tax receipts rose to 37.8% in the third quarter of 2024, the highest since 1996. That means interest is eating up over one-third of our tax revenues.
美国国债刚刚突破36万亿美元，仅在突破35万亿美元四个月后，全年增加了2万亿美元。虽然第三季度数据尚未公布，但2024年第三季度利息支出占税收的比例已升至37.8%，为1996年以来的最高水平。这意味着利息吞噬了我们超过三分之一的税收收入。
Total interest for the fiscal year hit $1.16 trillion, topping one trillion for the first time ever. That breaks down to $3 billion per day. For comparative purposes, an estimated $11 billion, or less than four days’ federal interest, would pay the median rent for all the homeless people in America for a year. The damage from Hurricane Helene in North Carolina alone is estimated at $53.6 billion, for which the state is expected to receive only $13.6 billion in federal support. The $40 billion funding gap is a sum we pay in less than two weeks in interest on the federal debt.
本财年利息总额达到1.16万亿美元，首次突破万亿大关，平均每天30亿美元。作为对比，估计110亿美元（不到四天的联邦利息）就足够支付全美无家可归者一年的中位数租金。仅北卡罗来纳州飓风"海伦"造成的损失就达536亿美元，而该州预计只能获得136亿美元的联邦援助。这400亿美元的资金缺口，我们支付不到两周的联邦债务利息就能覆盖。
The current debt trajectory is clearly unsustainable, but what can be done about it? Raising taxes and trimming the budget can slow future growth of the debt, but they are unable to fix the underlying problem — a debt grown so massive that just the interest on it is crowding out expenditures on the public goods that are the primary purpose of government.
当前的债务轨迹显然不可持续，但我们能做什么？增税和削减预算可以减缓债务的未来增长，但无法解决根本问题——债务规模如此庞大，仅利息支出就挤占了政府主要职能所需的公共产品支出。
Borrowing Is Actually More Inflationary Than Printing
借贷实际上比印钞更具通胀性
Several financial commentators have suggested that we would be better off if the Treasury issued the money for the budget outright, debt-free. Martin Armstrong, an economic forecaster with a background in computer science and commodities trading, contends that if we had just done that in the first place, the national debt would be only 40% of what it is today. In fact, he argues, debt today is the same as money, except that it comes with interest. Federal securities can be posted in the repo market as collateral for an equivalent in loans, and the collateral can be "rehypothecated" (re-used) several times over, creating new money that augments the money supply just as would happen if it were issued directly.
多位金融评论员建议，如果财政部直接无债务发行预算资金，情况会更好。具有计算机科学和大宗商品交易背景的经济预测师马丁·阿姆斯特朗认为，如果我们一开始就这么做，国债规模可能只有现在的40%。实际上，他认为如今的债务等同于货币，只是附带利息。联邦证券可以在回购市场作为贷款抵押品，且抵押品可被"再抵押"（重复使用）多次，创造新货币增加供应量，效果与直接发行无异。
Chris Martenson, another economic researcher and trend forecaster, asked in a Nov. 21 podcast,The argument for borrowing rather than printing is that the government is borrowing existing money, "What great harm would happen if the Treasury just issued its own money directly and didn’t borrow it? … You’re still overspending, you still probably have inflation, but now you’re not paying interest on it." so it will not expand the money supply. That was true when money consisted of gold and silver coins, but it is not true today. In fact borrowing the money is now more inflationary, increasing the money supply more, than if it were just issued directly, due to the way the government borrows. It issues securities (bills, bonds and notes) that are bid on at auction by sexted "primary dealers" (mostly very large banks). Quoting from Investopedia:
另一位经济研究员兼趋势预测师克里斯·马滕森在11月21日的播客中质疑道，支持借贷而非印钞的理由是政府借入现有货币，"如果财政部直接发行货币而不借贷会有什么大害？……你们仍在超支，可能仍有通胀，但现在不用支付利息了。"因此不会扩大货币供应。这在货币由金银硬币组成的时代成立，但如今已非事实。实际上由于政府借贷方式（通过拍卖向选定的"一级交易商"——主要是超大银行——发行证券），借贷比直接发行更具通胀性，更会增加货币供应。引自Investopedia：
"Because most modern economies rely on fractional reserve banking, when primary dealers purchase government debt in the form of Treasury securities, they are able to increase their reserves and expand the money supply by lending it out. This is known as the money multiplier effect."
"由于多数现代经济体依赖部分准备金银行制度，当一级交易商以国债形式购买政府债务时，他们能通过放贷增加准备金并扩大货币供应。这被称为货币乘数效应。"
Thus, "the government increases cash reserves in the banking system," and "the increase in reserves raises the money supply in the economy." And because the debt is never repaid but just gets rolled over from year to year along with the interest due on it, the interest compounds, an increasing amount of debt-at-interest is generated, and the money supply and inflation go up.
因此，"政府增加了银行系统的现金储备"，而"储备增加会推高经济中的货币供应量"。由于债务从未偿还只是连本带利逐年展期，利息复利计算，生息债务不断增加，货币供应和通胀随之上升。
U.S. Currency Should Be Issued by the U.S. Government
美元应由美国政府发行
Well over 90% of the U.S. money supply today is issued not by the government but by private banks when they make loans. As Thomas Edison argued in 1921, "It is absurd to say that our country can issue $30 million in bonds and not $30 million in currency. Both are promises to pay, but one promise fattens the usurers and the other helps the people."
如今美国超过90%的货币供应并非由政府发行，而是私营银行放贷时创造的。正如托马斯·爱迪生1921年所言："说我国能发行3000万美元债券却不能发行3000万美元货币是荒谬的。两者都是支付承诺，但一个养肥了高利贷者，另一个造福人民。"
The government could avoid increasing the debt by printing the money for its budget as President Lincoln did, as U.S. Notes or "Greenbacks." Donald Trump acknowledged in 2016 that the government never has to default "because you print the money," echoing Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett and others. So writes Prof. Stephanie Kelton in a Dec. 2, 2024 blog.Alternatively, the Treasury could mint some trillion dollar coins. The Constitution gives Congress the power to coin money and regulate its value, and no limit is put on the value of the coins it creates. In legislation initiated in 1982, Congress chose to impose limits on the amounts and denominations of most coins, but a special provision allowed the platinum coin to be minted in any amount for commemorative purposes. Philip Diehl, former head of the U.S. Mint and co-author of the platinum coin law, confirmed that the coin would be legal tender:
政府可以像林肯总统那样通过印刷美钞（即"绿背纸币"）为预算融资而避免增加债务。唐纳德·特朗普2016年承认政府永远不必违约"因为你们能印钱"，这与艾伦·格林斯潘、沃伦·巴菲特等人的观点一致。斯蒂芬妮·凯尔顿教授在2024年12月2日的博客中写道。或者，财政部可以铸造万亿硬币。宪法赋予国会铸币和规定币值的权力，且对硬币面值无上限。1982年立法中，国会对多数硬币设置了数量和面额限制，但特别条款允许为纪念目的铸造任意面值的铂金硬币。前美国铸币局局长、铂金硬币法合著者菲利普·迪尔确认该硬币将是法定货币：
"In minting the $1 trillion platinum coin, the Treasury Secretary would be exercising authority which Congress has granted routinely for more than 220 years … under power expressly granted to Congress in the Constitution (Article 1, Section 8). "
"铸造1万亿美元铂金硬币时，财政部长将行使国会220多年来常规授予的权力……基于宪法第一条第八款明确赋予国会的权力。"
To prevent congressional overspending, a budget ceiling could be imposed – as it is now, although the terms would probably need to be revised.
为防止国会超支，可设置预算上限——正如现行做法，尽管条款可能需要修订。
Eliminating the Debt
消除债务
Those maneuvers would prevent the federal debt from growing, but it still would not eliminate the trillion dollar interest tab on the existing $36 trillion debt. The only permanent solution is to eliminate the debt itself. In ancient Mesopotamia, when the king was the creditor, this was done with periodic debt jubilees — just cancel the debt. (See Michael Hudson, And Forgive Them Their Debts.) But that is not possible today because the creditors are private banks and private investors who have a contractual right to be paid, and the U.S. Constitution requires that the government pay its debts as and when due.
这些操作能阻止联邦债务增长，但仍无法消除现有36万亿美元债务的万亿利息负担。唯一永久解决方案是消除债务本身。在古代美索不达米亚，当国王是债权人时，通过定期债务豁免（直接取消债务）实现。（参见迈克尔·哈德森《赦免他们的债务》）。但如今这不可行，因为债权人是拥有法定受偿权的私营银行和私人投资者，且美国宪法要求政府按时偿债。
Another possibility is a financial transaction tax, which could replace both income and sales taxes while still generating enough to fund the government and pay off the debt. See Scott Smith, A Tale of Two Economies: A New Financial Operating System for the American Economy (2023) and my earlier article here. But that solution has been discussed for years without gaining traction in Congress.
另一种可能是金融交易税，既可替代所得税和销售税，又能产生足够资金维持政府运作并偿债。参见斯科特·史密斯《双城记：美国经济新金融操作系统》（2023年）及我早前文章。但该方案讨论多年仍未在国会获得支持。
Another alternative is to have the Federal Reserve buy the debt as it comes due. For the last few years, the Treasury has been issuing an estimated 30% of its debt as short-term bills rather than 10-year or 30-year bonds. As a result, in 2023 approximately 31% of the outstanding debt came due for renewal. As usual, it was just rolled over into new debt. But the nearly one-third coming due in FY2025 could be bought in the open market by the Federal Reserve, which is required to return its profits to the government after deducting its costs, making the debt virtually interest-free. Interest-free debt carried on the books and rolled over does not raise the federal deficit. If a third of the outstanding debt is too much to monetize in one year to avoid inflation, this maneuver could be spread out over a number of years.
另一选择是让美联储在债务到期时购买。过去几年，财政部发行约30%的短期票据而非10年或30年期债券，因此2023年约31%的未偿债务到期续作，照例只是展期为新债务。但2025财年到期近三分之一的债务可由美联储在公开市场购买，而美联储扣除成本后需将利润返还政府，使债务几乎无息。账面无息债务展期不会增加联邦赤字。若为避免通胀无法一年内货币化三分之一的未偿债务，可分散到多年操作。
Mandating that action by an "independent" Fed would require an amendment to the Federal Reserve Act, but Congress has the power to amend it and has done so several times over the years. The incoming Administration is proposing more radical moves than that, including eliminating the income tax, ending the Fed, auditing the Fed, or merging it with the Treasury.The federal interest tab nearly doubled after April 2022, when the Fed initiated "Quantitative Tightening." It reduced its balance sheet by selling over $2 trillion in federal securities into the economy, reducing the money supply, and by hiking the federal funds rate to as high as 5.5%. Arguably the Fed has overtightened and needs to reverse that trend by buying federal securities, injecting new money into the economy.
强制"独立"的美联储采取该行动需修订《联邦储备法》，但国会有权修订且多年来多次修订。新政府正提议更激进的举措，包括取消所得税、终结美联储、审计美联储或将其与财政部合并。联邦利息负担在2022年4月美联储启动"量化紧缩"后几乎翻倍。美联储通过向经济出售超2万亿美元联邦证券缩减资产负债表，减少货币供应，并将联邦基金利率提高至5.5%，可以说美联储过度紧缩，需要通过购买联邦证券向经济注入新资金逆转趋势。
How to Avoid Hyperinflation
如何避免恶性通胀
Alarmed economists contend that a Weimar-style hyperinflation is the inevitable outcome of government-issued money. But as Michael Hudson points out, "Every hyperinflation in history has been caused by foreign debt service collapsing the exchange rate. The problem almost always has resulted from wartime foreign currency strains, not domestic spending."
警觉的经济学家声称魏玛式恶性通胀是政府发行货币的必然结果。但迈克尔·哈德森指出，"历史上每次恶性通胀都因外债偿付压垮汇率所致。问题几乎总源于战时外币压力，而非国内支出。"
Issuing the money directly will not inflate prices if the funds are used to increase the domestic supply of goods and services. Supply and demand will then go up together, keeping prices stable. This has been illustrated historically, perhaps most dramatically in China. The People’s Bank of China manages the money supply by a variety of means including just printing currency. In 28 years, from 1996 to 2024, China’s money supply (M2) grew by 52 times or 5,200%, yet hyperinflation did not result. Prices remained stable because the funds went into increasing GDP, which went up along with the money supply.
若资金用于增加国内商品和服务供应，直接发行货币不会推高价格。供需将同步增长，保持价格稳定。历史上已有例证，或许中国最显著。中国人民银行通过包括印钞在内的多种手段管理货币供应。1996至2024年的28年间，中国货币供应量（M2）增长52倍达5200%，但未引发恶性通胀。价格保持稳定因为资金流入了与货币供应同步增长的GDP。
Price inflation during the Covid crisis has been blamed on the Fed monetizing Congressional fiscal payments to consumers and businesses, increasing demand (the circulating money supply) without increasing supply (goods and services). But the San Francisco Fed concluded that the surge in global shipping and transportation costs due to COVID, along with delivery delays and backlogs, were a greater contributor than this fiscal stimulus to the runup of headline inflation in 2021 and 2022. The supply of goods could have been increased – producers could have increased production to respond to the increase in demand — were it not for the shutdown of more than 700,000 productive businesses labeled "non-essential," resulting in the loss of three million jobs.
新冠危机期间的价格通胀被归咎于美联储货币化国会向消费者和企业发放的财政补贴，增加需求（流通货币供应）而未增加供应（商品和服务）。但旧金山联储得出结论，COVID导致的全球航运和运输成本激增及交付延迟和积压，比财政刺激对2021-2022年通胀上升的影响更大。若非70多万家被标为"非必要"的生产企业关停导致300万个工作岗位流失，商品供应本可增加——生产商本可增产应对需求增长。
Swapping Debt for Productive Equity
债务换生产性股权
Money printing is not inflationary if the money is issued for productive purposes, raising GDP in lockstep; but how can we be sure that the new money will be used productively? Today the banks and other large institutions that first receive any newly-issued money are more likely to invest it speculatively, driving up the price of existing assets (homes, stocks, etc.) without creating new goods and services.
若为生产目的发行货币，同步提升GDP，印钞不会引发通胀；但如何确保新货币被生产性使用？如今首先获得新发行货币的银行和其他大机构更可能投机性投资，推高现有资产（房产、股票等）价格而不创造新商品和服务。
Economic blogger Martin Armstrong observes that one solution pursued by debt-ridden countries is to swap the debt for equity in productive assets. This has been done by Mexico, Poland, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and the United States itself. It was the solution of Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton in dealing with the overwhelming debt of the First U.S. Congress. State and federal debt was swapped along with gold for shares in the First U.S. Bank, paying a 6% dividend. The Bank then issued U.S. currency at up to 10 times this capital base, on the fractional reserve model still used by banks today. Both the First and the Second U.S. Banks were designed to support manufacturing and production, according to Hamilton’s Report on Public Credit.
经济博主马丁·阿姆斯特朗指出，负债国的一种解决方案是用债务交换生产性资产股权。墨西哥、波兰、克罗地亚、捷克、匈牙利和美国自身都这样做过。这是财政部长亚历山大·汉密尔顿处理第一届国会巨额债务的方案。州和联邦债务连同黄金被置换为美国第一银行股份，支付6%股息。该银行随后以高达资本金10倍的规模发行美元，采用银行至今沿用的部分准备金模式。根据汉密尔顿《公共信用报告》，第一和第二美国银行都旨在支持制造业和生产。
Following the Hamiltonian model is H.R. 4052, the National Infrastructure Bank Act of 2023 (NIB) now pending in Congress. The NIB proposal is to swap privately-held federal securities (Treasury bonds) for non-voting preferred stock in the bank. Interest on the bonds would continue to go to the investors, along with a 2% stock dividend. That would not eliminate the debt or the interest, but if the Federal Reserve were to buy federal securities on the open market and swap them for NIB stock, the securities would essentially remain interest-free, since again the Fed is required to return its profits to the Treasury after deducting its costs.
效仿汉密尔顿模式的是正在国会审议的《2023年国家基础设施银行法案》（H.R. 4052）。NIB提议用私人持有的联邦证券（国债）交换该银行无投票权优先股。债券利息将继续支付投资者，外加2%股票股息。这不会消除债务或利息，但如果美联储在公开市场购买联邦证券并置换为NIB股票，由于美联储需在扣除成本后将利润返还财政部，这些证券实质上仍是无息的。
Lending Directly to Productive Businesses
直接向生产企业放贷
Another possibility for using newly issued money to increase the supply of goods and services is for the Federal Reserve to make loans directly to productive businesses. That was actually the intent of the original Federal Reserve Act. Section 13 of the Act allows Federal Reserve Banks to discount notes, drafts, and bills of exchange arising out of actual commercial transactions, such as those issued for agricultural, industrial or commercial purposes – in other words, lending directly for production and development. "Discounting commercial paper" is a process by which short-term loans are provided to financial institutions using commercial paper as collateral. (Commercial paper is unsecured short-term debt, usually issued at a discount, used to cover payroll, inventory and other short-term liabilities. The "discount" represents the interest to the lender.)According to Prof. Carl Walsh, writing of the Federal Reserve Act in The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Newsletter in 1991:
利用新发行货币增加商品和服务供应的另一可能是美联储直接向生产企业放贷。这实际上是《联邦储备法》的原意。该法第13条允许联邦储备银行贴现源于实际商业交易（如农业、工业或商业用途）的票据、汇票和交换票据——即直接为生产和发展放贷。"贴现商业票据"是以商业票据为抵押向金融机构提供短期贷款的过程。（商业票据是无担保短期债务，通常折价发行，用于支付工资、库存等短期负债。"贴现"代表贷款人利息。）根据卡尔·沃尔什教授1991年在旧金山联储通讯中的论述：
"The preamble sets out very clearly that one purpose of the Federal Reserve Act was to afford a means of discounting commercial loans. In its report on the proposed bill, the House Banking and Currency Committee viewed a fundamental obxtive of the bill to be the "creation of a joint mechanism for the extension of credit to banks which possess sound assets and which desire to liquidate them for the purpose of meeting legitimate commercial, agricultural, and industrial demands on the part of their clientele."
"序言明确指出《联邦储备法》目的之一是提供商业贷款贴现手段。众议院银行与货币委员会在法案报告中视其根本目标为'建立联合机制，向拥有稳健资产且希望变现以满足客户合法商业、农业和工业需求的银行扩展信贷'。"
Cornell Law School Professor Robert Hockett expanded on this design in an article in Forbes in March 2021:
康奈尔法学院教授罗伯特·霍克特2021年3月在《福布斯》文章中详述了这一设计：
[T]he founders of the Federal Reserve System in 1913 … designed something akin to a network of regional development finance institutions. … Each of the twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks was to provide short-term funding directly or indirectly (through local banks) to developing businesses that needed it. This they did by ‘discounting’ – in effect, purchasing – commercial paper from those businesses that needed it … [I]n determining what kinds of commercial paper to discount, the Federal Reserve Act both was – and ironically remains – quite explicit about this: Fed discount lending is solely for "productive," not "speculative" purposes.
1913年美联储体系的创立者……设计了一个类似区域开发金融机构的网络。……12家地区联储银行都应直接或间接（通过地方银行）向需要资金的成长中企业提供短期融资。他们通过"贴现"——实质是购买——这些企业的商业票据实现。……在决定贴现何种商业票据时，《联邦储备法》过去——且讽刺的是现在仍——非常明确：联储贴现贷款仅用于"生产性"而非"投机性"目的。
Today discounting commercial paper is big business, but the lenders are private and the borrowers are large institutions issuing commercial paper in denominations of $100,000 or more. Except for its emergency Commercial Paper Funding Facility operated from 2020 to 2021 and from 2008 to 2010, the Fed no longer engages in the commercial loan business. Meanwhile, small businesses are having trouble finding affordable financing.
如今商业票据贴现是大生意，但贷款方是私人的，借款方是发行面额10万美元以上商业票据的大机构。除2020-2021年和2008-2010年运作的紧急商业票据融资机制外，美联储不再参与商业贷款业务。与此同时，小企业难以获得可负担融资。
In a sequel to his March 2021 article, Hockett explained that the drafters of the Federal Reserve Act, notably Carter Glass and Paul Warburg, were essentially following the Real Bills Doctrine (RBD). Previously known as the "commercial loan theory of banking," it held that banks could create credit-money deposits on their balance sheets without triggering inflation if the money were issued against loans backed by commercial paper. When the borrowing companies repaid their loans from their sales receipts, the newly created money would just void out the debt and be extinguished. Their intent was that banks could sell their commercial loans at a discount at the Fed’s Discount Window, freeing up their balance sheets for more loans. Hockett wrote:
在2021年3月文章的续篇中，霍克特解释《联邦储备法》起草者——特别是卡特·格拉斯和保罗·沃伯格——实质上遵循了真实票据学说（RBD）。该学说曾称"银行业商业贷款理论"，认为若货币发行基于商业票据担保的贷款，银行可在资产负债表上创造信用货币存款而不引发通胀。当借款公司用销售收入偿还贷款时，新创造的货币将抵消债务并消失。他们的意图是银行可在联储贴现窗口折价出售商业贷款，释放资产负债表空间进行更多放贷。霍克特写道：
"The RBD in its crude formulation held that so long as the lending of endogenous [bank-created] credit-money was kept productive, not speculative, inflation and deflation would be not only less likely, but effectively impossible. And the experience of German banks during Germany’s late 19th century Hamiltonian ‘growth miracle,’ with which the German immigrant Warburg, himself a banker, was intimately familiar, appeared to verify this. So did Glass’s experience with agricultural lending in the American South. "
"粗略表述的真实票据学说认为，只要内生（银行创造的）信用货币的借贷保持生产性而非投机性，通胀和通缩不仅可能性更低，而且实际上不可能发生。德国移民沃伯格（本人是银行家）密切了解的19世纪末德国汉密尔顿式'增长奇迹'期间德国银行的经验似乎验证了这点。格拉斯在美国南部的农业贷款经历也是如此。"
Prof. Hockett suggested regionalizing the Fed, expanding it from the current 12 Federal Reserve banks to many banks. He wrote in August 2021:
霍克特教授建议美联储区域化，从当前12家联储银行扩展到多家。他在2021年8月写道：
"In time, we might even imagine a proliferation of public banks, patterned more or less after the highly successful Bank of North Dakota model, spreading across multiple states. These banks could then both afford nonprofit banking services to all, and assist the Fed Regional Banks in identifying appropriate recipients of Fed liquidity assistance. "
"假以时日，我们甚至可以设想以高度成功的北达科他州银行为模板的公立银行激增，遍布多个州。这些银行既能向所有人提供非营利银行服务，又能协助联储地区银行识别合适的流动性援助对象。"
The result, he said, will be "a Fed restored to its original purpose, a Fed responsive to varying local conditions in a sprawling continental republic, a Fed no longer over-involved with banks whose principal if not sole activities are in gambling on price movements in secondary and tertiary markets rather than investing in the primary markets that constitute our ‘real’ economy. It will mean, in short, something approaching a true people’s bank, not just a banks’ bank."
他说，结果将是"回归初衷"的美联储，响应广阔大陆共和国各地不同状况的美联储，不再过度涉足那些主要（若非全部）活动是在二三级市场押注价格波动而非投资构成我们'实体经济'的一级市场的银行的美联储。简言之，这将意味着接近真正的'人民的银行'，而不仅仅是'银行的银行'。"
The U.S. national debt just passed $36 trillion, only four months after it passed $35 trillion and up $2 trillion for the year. Third quarter data is not yet available, but interest payments as a percent of tax receipts rose to 37.8% in the third quarter of 2024, the highest since 1996. That means interest is eating up over one-third of our tax revenues.
美国国债刚刚突破36万亿美元，仅在突破35万亿美元四个月后，全年增加了2万亿美元。虽然第三季度数据尚未公布，但2024年第三季度利息支出占税收的比例已升至37.8%，为1996年以来的最高水平。这意味着利息吞噬了我们超过三分之一的税收收入。
Total interest for the fiscal year hit $1.16 trillion, topping one trillion for the first time ever. That breaks down to $3 billion per day. For comparative purposes, an estimated $11 billion, or less than four days’ federal interest, would pay the median rent for all the homeless people in America for a year. The damage from Hurricane Helene in North Carolina alone is estimated at $53.6 billion, for which the state is expected to receive only $13.6 billion in federal support. The $40 billion funding gap is a sum we pay in less than two weeks in interest on the federal debt.
本财年利息总额达到1.16万亿美元，首次突破万亿大关，平均每天30亿美元。作为对比，估计110亿美元（不到四天的联邦利息）就足够支付全美无家可归者一年的中位数租金。仅北卡罗来纳州飓风"海伦"造成的损失就达536亿美元，而该州预计只能获得136亿美元的联邦援助。这400亿美元的资金缺口，我们支付不到两周的联邦债务利息就能覆盖。
The current debt trajectory is clearly unsustainable, but what can be done about it? Raising taxes and trimming the budget can slow future growth of the debt, but they are unable to fix the underlying problem — a debt grown so massive that just the interest on it is crowding out expenditures on the public goods that are the primary purpose of government.
当前的债务轨迹显然不可持续，但我们能做什么？增税和削减预算可以减缓债务的未来增长，但无法解决根本问题——债务规模如此庞大，仅利息支出就挤占了政府主要职能所需的公共产品支出。
Borrowing Is Actually More Inflationary Than Printing
借贷实际上比印钞更具通胀性
Several financial commentators have suggested that we would be better off if the Treasury issued the money for the budget outright, debt-free. Martin Armstrong, an economic forecaster with a background in computer science and commodities trading, contends that if we had just done that in the first place, the national debt would be only 40% of what it is today. In fact, he argues, debt today is the same as money, except that it comes with interest. Federal securities can be posted in the repo market as collateral for an equivalent in loans, and the collateral can be "rehypothecated" (re-used) several times over, creating new money that augments the money supply just as would happen if it were issued directly.
多位金融评论员建议，如果财政部直接无债务发行预算资金，情况会更好。具有计算机科学和大宗商品交易背景的经济预测师马丁·阿姆斯特朗认为，如果我们一开始就这么做，国债规模可能只有现在的40%。实际上，他认为如今的债务等同于货币，只是附带利息。联邦证券可以在回购市场作为贷款抵押品，且抵押品可被"再抵押"（重复使用）多次，创造新货币增加供应量，效果与直接发行无异。
Chris Martenson, another economic researcher and trend forecaster, asked in a Nov. 21 podcast,The argument for borrowing rather than printing is that the government is borrowing existing money, "What great harm would happen if the Treasury just issued its own money directly and didn’t borrow it? … You’re still overspending, you still probably have inflation, but now you’re not paying interest on it." so it will not expand the money supply. That was true when money consisted of gold and silver coins, but it is not true today. In fact borrowing the money is now more inflationary, increasing the money supply more, than if it were just issued directly, due to the way the government borrows. It issues securities (bills, bonds and notes) that are bid on at auction by sexted "primary dealers" (mostly very large banks). Quoting from Investopedia:
另一位经济研究员兼趋势预测师克里斯·马滕森在11月21日的播客中质疑道，支持借贷而非印钞的理由是政府借入现有货币，"如果财政部直接发行货币而不借贷会有什么大害？……你们仍在超支，可能仍有通胀，但现在不用支付利息了。"因此不会扩大货币供应。这在货币由金银硬币组成的时代成立，但如今已非事实。实际上由于政府借贷方式（通过拍卖向选定的"一级交易商"——主要是超大银行——发行证券），借贷比直接发行更具通胀性，更会增加货币供应。引自Investopedia：
"Because most modern economies rely on fractional reserve banking, when primary dealers purchase government debt in the form of Treasury securities, they are able to increase their reserves and expand the money supply by lending it out. This is known as the money multiplier effect."
"由于多数现代经济体依赖部分准备金银行制度，当一级交易商以国债形式购买政府债务时，他们能通过放贷增加准备金并扩大货币供应。这被称为货币乘数效应。"
Thus, "the government increases cash reserves in the banking system," and "the increase in reserves raises the money supply in the economy." And because the debt is never repaid but just gets rolled over from year to year along with the interest due on it, the interest compounds, an increasing amount of debt-at-interest is generated, and the money supply and inflation go up.
因此，"政府增加了银行系统的现金储备"，而"储备增加会推高经济中的货币供应量"。由于债务从未偿还只是连本带利逐年展期，利息复利计算，生息债务不断增加，货币供应和通胀随之上升。
U.S. Currency Should Be Issued by the U.S. Government
美元应由美国政府发行
Well over 90% of the U.S. money supply today is issued not by the government but by private banks when they make loans. As Thomas Edison argued in 1921, "It is absurd to say that our country can issue $30 million in bonds and not $30 million in currency. Both are promises to pay, but one promise fattens the usurers and the other helps the people."
如今美国超过90%的货币供应并非由政府发行，而是私营银行放贷时创造的。正如托马斯·爱迪生1921年所言："说我国能发行3000万美元债券却不能发行3000万美元货币是荒谬的。两者都是支付承诺，但一个养肥了高利贷者，另一个造福人民。"
The government could avoid increasing the debt by printing the money for its budget as President Lincoln did, as U.S. Notes or "Greenbacks." Donald Trump acknowledged in 2016 that the government never has to default "because you print the money," echoing Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett and others. So writes Prof. Stephanie Kelton in a Dec. 2, 2024 blog.Alternatively, the Treasury could mint some trillion dollar coins. The Constitution gives Congress the power to coin money and regulate its value, and no limit is put on the value of the coins it creates. In legislation initiated in 1982, Congress chose to impose limits on the amounts and denominations of most coins, but a special provision allowed the platinum coin to be minted in any amount for commemorative purposes. Philip Diehl, former head of the U.S. Mint and co-author of the platinum coin law, confirmed that the coin would be legal tender:
政府可以像林肯总统那样通过印刷美钞（即"绿背纸币"）为预算融资而避免增加债务。唐纳德·特朗普2016年承认政府永远不必违约"因为你们能印钱"，这与艾伦·格林斯潘、沃伦·巴菲特等人的观点一致。斯蒂芬妮·凯尔顿教授在2024年12月2日的博客中写道。或者，财政部可以铸造万亿硬币。宪法赋予国会铸币和规定币值的权力，且对硬币面值无上限。1982年立法中，国会对多数硬币设置了数量和面额限制，但特别条款允许为纪念目的铸造任意面值的铂金硬币。前美国铸币局局长、铂金硬币法合著者菲利普·迪尔确认该硬币将是法定货币：
"In minting the $1 trillion platinum coin, the Treasury Secretary would be exercising authority which Congress has granted routinely for more than 220 years … under power expressly granted to Congress in the Constitution (Article 1, Section 8). "
"铸造1万亿美元铂金硬币时，财政部长将行使国会220多年来常规授予的权力……基于宪法第一条第八款明确赋予国会的权力。"
To prevent congressional overspending, a budget ceiling could be imposed – as it is now, although the terms would probably need to be revised.
为防止国会超支，可设置预算上限——正如现行做法，尽管条款可能需要修订。
Eliminating the Debt
消除债务
Those maneuvers would prevent the federal debt from growing, but it still would not eliminate the trillion dollar interest tab on the existing $36 trillion debt. The only permanent solution is to eliminate the debt itself. In ancient Mesopotamia, when the king was the creditor, this was done with periodic debt jubilees — just cancel the debt. (See Michael Hudson, And Forgive Them Their Debts.) But that is not possible today because the creditors are private banks and private investors who have a contractual right to be paid, and the U.S. Constitution requires that the government pay its debts as and when due.
这些操作能阻止联邦债务增长，但仍无法消除现有36万亿美元债务的万亿利息负担。唯一永久解决方案是消除债务本身。在古代美索不达米亚，当国王是债权人时，通过定期债务豁免（直接取消债务）实现。（参见迈克尔·哈德森《赦免他们的债务》）。但如今这不可行，因为债权人是拥有法定受偿权的私营银行和私人投资者，且美国宪法要求政府按时偿债。
Another possibility is a financial transaction tax, which could replace both income and sales taxes while still generating enough to fund the government and pay off the debt. See Scott Smith, A Tale of Two Economies: A New Financial Operating System for the American Economy (2023) and my earlier article here. But that solution has been discussed for years without gaining traction in Congress.
另一种可能是金融交易税，既可替代所得税和销售税，又能产生足够资金维持政府运作并偿债。参见斯科特·史密斯《双城记：美国经济新金融操作系统》（2023年）及我早前文章。但该方案讨论多年仍未在国会获得支持。
Another alternative is to have the Federal Reserve buy the debt as it comes due. For the last few years, the Treasury has been issuing an estimated 30% of its debt as short-term bills rather than 10-year or 30-year bonds. As a result, in 2023 approximately 31% of the outstanding debt came due for renewal. As usual, it was just rolled over into new debt. But the nearly one-third coming due in FY2025 could be bought in the open market by the Federal Reserve, which is required to return its profits to the government after deducting its costs, making the debt virtually interest-free. Interest-free debt carried on the books and rolled over does not raise the federal deficit. If a third of the outstanding debt is too much to monetize in one year to avoid inflation, this maneuver could be spread out over a number of years.
另一选择是让美联储在债务到期时购买。过去几年，财政部发行约30%的短期票据而非10年或30年期债券，因此2023年约31%的未偿债务到期续作，照例只是展期为新债务。但2025财年到期近三分之一的债务可由美联储在公开市场购买，而美联储扣除成本后需将利润返还政府，使债务几乎无息。账面无息债务展期不会增加联邦赤字。若为避免通胀无法一年内货币化三分之一的未偿债务，可分散到多年操作。
Mandating that action by an "independent" Fed would require an amendment to the Federal Reserve Act, but Congress has the power to amend it and has done so several times over the years. The incoming Administration is proposing more radical moves than that, including eliminating the income tax, ending the Fed, auditing the Fed, or merging it with the Treasury.The federal interest tab nearly doubled after April 2022, when the Fed initiated "Quantitative Tightening." It reduced its balance sheet by selling over $2 trillion in federal securities into the economy, reducing the money supply, and by hiking the federal funds rate to as high as 5.5%. Arguably the Fed has overtightened and needs to reverse that trend by buying federal securities, injecting new money into the economy.
强制"独立"的美联储采取该行动需修订《联邦储备法》，但国会有权修订且多年来多次修订。新政府正提议更激进的举措，包括取消所得税、终结美联储、审计美联储或将其与财政部合并。联邦利息负担在2022年4月美联储启动"量化紧缩"后几乎翻倍。美联储通过向经济出售超2万亿美元联邦证券缩减资产负债表，减少货币供应，并将联邦基金利率提高至5.5%，可以说美联储过度紧缩，需要通过购买联邦证券向经济注入新资金逆转趋势。
How to Avoid Hyperinflation
如何避免恶性通胀
Alarmed economists contend that a Weimar-style hyperinflation is the inevitable outcome of government-issued money. But as Michael Hudson points out, "Every hyperinflation in history has been caused by foreign debt service collapsing the exchange rate. The problem almost always has resulted from wartime foreign currency strains, not domestic spending."
警觉的经济学家声称魏玛式恶性通胀是政府发行货币的必然结果。但迈克尔·哈德森指出，"历史上每次恶性通胀都因外债偿付压垮汇率所致。问题几乎总源于战时外币压力，而非国内支出。"
Issuing the money directly will not inflate prices if the funds are used to increase the domestic supply of goods and services. Supply and demand will then go up together, keeping prices stable. This has been illustrated historically, perhaps most dramatically in China. The People’s Bank of China manages the money supply by a variety of means including just printing currency. In 28 years, from 1996 to 2024, China’s money supply (M2) grew by 52 times or 5,200%, yet hyperinflation did not result. Prices remained stable because the funds went into increasing GDP, which went up along with the money supply.
若资金用于增加国内商品和服务供应，直接发行货币不会推高价格。供需将同步增长，保持价格稳定。历史上已有例证，或许中国最显著。中国人民银行通过包括印钞在内的多种手段管理货币供应。1996至2024年的28年间，中国货币供应量（M2）增长52倍达5200%，但未引发恶性通胀。价格保持稳定因为资金流入了与货币供应同步增长的GDP。
Price inflation during the Covid crisis has been blamed on the Fed monetizing Congressional fiscal payments to consumers and businesses, increasing demand (the circulating money supply) without increasing supply (goods and services). But the San Francisco Fed concluded that the surge in global shipping and transportation costs due to COVID, along with delivery delays and backlogs, were a greater contributor than this fiscal stimulus to the runup of headline inflation in 2021 and 2022. The supply of goods could have been increased – producers could have increased production to respond to the increase in demand — were it not for the shutdown of more than 700,000 productive businesses labeled "non-essential," resulting in the loss of three million jobs.
新冠危机期间的价格通胀被归咎于美联储货币化国会向消费者和企业发放的财政补贴，增加需求（流通货币供应）而未增加供应（商品和服务）。但旧金山联储得出结论，COVID导致的全球航运和运输成本激增及交付延迟和积压，比财政刺激对2021-2022年通胀上升的影响更大。若非70多万家被标为"非必要"的生产企业关停导致300万个工作岗位流失，商品供应本可增加——生产商本可增产应对需求增长。
Swapping Debt for Productive Equity
债务换生产性股权
Money printing is not inflationary if the money is issued for productive purposes, raising GDP in lockstep; but how can we be sure that the new money will be used productively? Today the banks and other large institutions that first receive any newly-issued money are more likely to invest it speculatively, driving up the price of existing assets (homes, stocks, etc.) without creating new goods and services.
若为生产目的发行货币，同步提升GDP，印钞不会引发通胀；但如何确保新货币被生产性使用？如今首先获得新发行货币的银行和其他大机构更可能投机性投资，推高现有资产（房产、股票等）价格而不创造新商品和服务。
Economic blogger Martin Armstrong observes that one solution pursued by debt-ridden countries is to swap the debt for equity in productive assets. This has been done by Mexico, Poland, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and the United States itself. It was the solution of Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton in dealing with the overwhelming debt of the First U.S. Congress. State and federal debt was swapped along with gold for shares in the First U.S. Bank, paying a 6% dividend. The Bank then issued U.S. currency at up to 10 times this capital base, on the fractional reserve model still used by banks today. Both the First and the Second U.S. Banks were designed to support manufacturing and production, according to Hamilton’s Report on Public Credit.
经济博主马丁·阿姆斯特朗指出，负债国的一种解决方案是用债务交换生产性资产股权。墨西哥、波兰、克罗地亚、捷克、匈牙利和美国自身都这样做过。这是财政部长亚历山大·汉密尔顿处理第一届国会巨额债务的方案。州和联邦债务连同黄金被置换为美国第一银行股份，支付6%股息。该银行随后以高达资本金10倍的规模发行美元，采用银行至今沿用的部分准备金模式。根据汉密尔顿《公共信用报告》，第一和第二美国银行都旨在支持制造业和生产。
Following the Hamiltonian model is H.R. 4052, the National Infrastructure Bank Act of 2023 (NIB) now pending in Congress. The NIB proposal is to swap privately-held federal securities (Treasury bonds) for non-voting preferred stock in the bank. Interest on the bonds would continue to go to the investors, along with a 2% stock dividend. That would not eliminate the debt or the interest, but if the Federal Reserve were to buy federal securities on the open market and swap them for NIB stock, the securities would essentially remain interest-free, since again the Fed is required to return its profits to the Treasury after deducting its costs.
效仿汉密尔顿模式的是正在国会审议的《2023年国家基础设施银行法案》（H.R. 4052）。NIB提议用私人持有的联邦证券（国债）交换该银行无投票权优先股。债券利息将继续支付投资者，外加2%股票股息。这不会消除债务或利息，但如果美联储在公开市场购买联邦证券并置换为NIB股票，由于美联储需在扣除成本后将利润返还财政部，这些证券实质上仍是无息的。
Lending Directly to Productive Businesses
直接向生产企业放贷
Another possibility for using newly issued money to increase the supply of goods and services is for the Federal Reserve to make loans directly to productive businesses. That was actually the intent of the original Federal Reserve Act. Section 13 of the Act allows Federal Reserve Banks to discount notes, drafts, and bills of exchange arising out of actual commercial transactions, such as those issued for agricultural, industrial or commercial purposes – in other words, lending directly for production and development. "Discounting commercial paper" is a process by which short-term loans are provided to financial institutions using commercial paper as collateral. (Commercial paper is unsecured short-term debt, usually issued at a discount, used to cover payroll, inventory and other short-term liabilities. The "discount" represents the interest to the lender.)According to Prof. Carl Walsh, writing of the Federal Reserve Act in The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Newsletter in 1991:
利用新发行货币增加商品和服务供应的另一可能是美联储直接向生产企业放贷。这实际上是《联邦储备法》的原意。该法第13条允许联邦储备银行贴现源于实际商业交易（如农业、工业或商业用途）的票据、汇票和交换票据——即直接为生产和发展放贷。"贴现商业票据"是以商业票据为抵押向金融机构提供短期贷款的过程。（商业票据是无担保短期债务，通常折价发行，用于支付工资、库存等短期负债。"贴现"代表贷款人利息。）根据卡尔·沃尔什教授1991年在旧金山联储通讯中的论述：
"The preamble sets out very clearly that one purpose of the Federal Reserve Act was to afford a means of discounting commercial loans. In its report on the proposed bill, the House Banking and Currency Committee viewed a fundamental obxtive of the bill to be the "creation of a joint mechanism for the extension of credit to banks which possess sound assets and which desire to liquidate them for the purpose of meeting legitimate commercial, agricultural, and industrial demands on the part of their clientele."
"序言明确指出《联邦储备法》目的之一是提供商业贷款贴现手段。众议院银行与货币委员会在法案报告中视其根本目标为'建立联合机制，向拥有稳健资产且希望变现以满足客户合法商业、农业和工业需求的银行扩展信贷'。"
Cornell Law School Professor Robert Hockett expanded on this design in an article in Forbes in March 2021:
康奈尔法学院教授罗伯特·霍克特2021年3月在《福布斯》文章中详述了这一设计：
[T]he founders of the Federal Reserve System in 1913 … designed something akin to a network of regional development finance institutions. … Each of the twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks was to provide short-term funding directly or indirectly (through local banks) to developing businesses that needed it. This they did by ‘discounting’ – in effect, purchasing – commercial paper from those businesses that needed it … [I]n determining what kinds of commercial paper to discount, the Federal Reserve Act both was – and ironically remains – quite explicit about this: Fed discount lending is solely for "productive," not "speculative" purposes.
1913年美联储体系的创立者……设计了一个类似区域开发金融机构的网络。……12家地区联储银行都应直接或间接（通过地方银行）向需要资金的成长中企业提供短期融资。他们通过"贴现"——实质是购买——这些企业的商业票据实现。……在决定贴现何种商业票据时，《联邦储备法》过去——且讽刺的是现在仍——非常明确：联储贴现贷款仅用于"生产性"而非"投机性"目的。
Today discounting commercial paper is big business, but the lenders are private and the borrowers are large institutions issuing commercial paper in denominations of $100,000 or more. Except for its emergency Commercial Paper Funding Facility operated from 2020 to 2021 and from 2008 to 2010, the Fed no longer engages in the commercial loan business. Meanwhile, small businesses are having trouble finding affordable financing.
如今商业票据贴现是大生意，但贷款方是私人的，借款方是发行面额10万美元以上商业票据的大机构。除2020-2021年和2008-2010年运作的紧急商业票据融资机制外，美联储不再参与商业贷款业务。与此同时，小企业难以获得可负担融资。
In a sequel to his March 2021 article, Hockett explained that the drafters of the Federal Reserve Act, notably Carter Glass and Paul Warburg, were essentially following the Real Bills Doctrine (RBD). Previously known as the "commercial loan theory of banking," it held that banks could create credit-money deposits on their balance sheets without triggering inflation if the money were issued against loans backed by commercial paper. When the borrowing companies repaid their loans from their sales receipts, the newly created money would just void out the debt and be extinguished. Their intent was that banks could sell their commercial loans at a discount at the Fed’s Discount Window, freeing up their balance sheets for more loans. Hockett wrote:
在2021年3月文章的续篇中，霍克特解释《联邦储备法》起草者——特别是卡特·格拉斯和保罗·沃伯格——实质上遵循了真实票据学说（RBD）。该学说曾称"银行业商业贷款理论"，认为若货币发行基于商业票据担保的贷款，银行可在资产负债表上创造信用货币存款而不引发通胀。当借款公司用销售收入偿还贷款时，新创造的货币将抵消债务并消失。他们的意图是银行可在联储贴现窗口折价出售商业贷款，释放资产负债表空间进行更多放贷。霍克特写道：
"The RBD in its crude formulation held that so long as the lending of endogenous [bank-created] credit-money was kept productive, not speculative, inflation and deflation would be not only less likely, but effectively impossible. And the experience of German banks during Germany’s late 19th century Hamiltonian ‘growth miracle,’ with which the German immigrant Warburg, himself a banker, was intimately familiar, appeared to verify this. So did Glass’s experience with agricultural lending in the American South. "
"粗略表述的真实票据学说认为，只要内生（银行创造的）信用货币的借贷保持生产性而非投机性，通胀和通缩不仅可能性更低，而且实际上不可能发生。德国移民沃伯格（本人是银行家）密切了解的19世纪末德国汉密尔顿式'增长奇迹'期间德国银行的经验似乎验证了这点。格拉斯在美国南部的农业贷款经历也是如此。"
Prof. Hockett suggested regionalizing the Fed, expanding it from the current 12 Federal Reserve banks to many banks. He wrote in August 2021:
霍克特教授建议美联储区域化，从当前12家联储银行扩展到多家。他在2021年8月写道：
"In time, we might even imagine a proliferation of public banks, patterned more or less after the highly successful Bank of North Dakota model, spreading across multiple states. These banks could then both afford nonprofit banking services to all, and assist the Fed Regional Banks in identifying appropriate recipients of Fed liquidity assistance. "
"假以时日，我们甚至可以设想以高度成功的北达科他州银行为模板的公立银行激增，遍布多个州。这些银行既能向所有人提供非营利银行服务，又能协助联储地区银行识别合适的流动性援助对象。"
The result, he said, will be "a Fed restored to its original purpose, a Fed responsive to varying local conditions in a sprawling continental republic, a Fed no longer over-involved with banks whose principal if not sole activities are in gambling on price movements in secondary and tertiary markets rather than investing in the primary markets that constitute our ‘real’ economy. It will mean, in short, something approaching a true people’s bank, not just a banks’ bank."
他说，结果将是"回归初衷"的美联储，响应广阔大陆共和国各地不同状况的美联储，不再过度涉足那些主要（若非全部）活动是在二三级市场押注价格波动而非投资构成我们'实体经济'的一级市场的银行的美联储。简言之，这将意味着接近真正的'人民的银行'，而不仅仅是'银行的银行'。"
评论翻译
The U.S. national debt just passed $36 trillion, only four months after it passed $35 trillion and up $2 trillion for the year. Third quarter data is not yet available, but interest payments as a percent of tax receipts rose to 37.8% in the third quarter of 2024, the highest since 1996. That means interest is eating up over one-third of our tax revenues.
美国国债刚刚突破36万亿美元，仅在突破35万亿美元四个月后，全年增加了2万亿美元。虽然第三季度数据尚未公布，但2024年第三季度利息支出占税收的比例已升至37.8%，为1996年以来的最高水平。这意味着利息吞噬了我们超过三分之一的税收收入。
Total interest for the fiscal year hit $1.16 trillion, topping one trillion for the first time ever. That breaks down to $3 billion per day. For comparative purposes, an estimated $11 billion, or less than four days’ federal interest, would pay the median rent for all the homeless people in America for a year. The damage from Hurricane Helene in North Carolina alone is estimated at $53.6 billion, for which the state is expected to receive only $13.6 billion in federal support. The $40 billion funding gap is a sum we pay in less than two weeks in interest on the federal debt.
本财年利息总额达到1.16万亿美元，首次突破万亿大关，平均每天30亿美元。作为对比，估计110亿美元（不到四天的联邦利息）就足够支付全美无家可归者一年的中位数租金。仅北卡罗来纳州飓风"海伦"造成的损失就达536亿美元，而该州预计只能获得136亿美元的联邦援助。这400亿美元的资金缺口，我们支付不到两周的联邦债务利息就能覆盖。
The current debt trajectory is clearly unsustainable, but what can be done about it? Raising taxes and trimming the budget can slow future growth of the debt, but they are unable to fix the underlying problem — a debt grown so massive that just the interest on it is crowding out expenditures on the public goods that are the primary purpose of government.
当前的债务轨迹显然不可持续，但我们能做什么？增税和削减预算可以减缓债务的未来增长，但无法解决根本问题——债务规模如此庞大，仅利息支出就挤占了政府主要职能所需的公共产品支出。
Borrowing Is Actually More Inflationary Than Printing
借贷实际上比印钞更具通胀性
Several financial commentators have suggested that we would be better off if the Treasury issued the money for the budget outright, debt-free. Martin Armstrong, an economic forecaster with a background in computer science and commodities trading, contends that if we had just done that in the first place, the national debt would be only 40% of what it is today. In fact, he argues, debt today is the same as money, except that it comes with interest. Federal securities can be posted in the repo market as collateral for an equivalent in loans, and the collateral can be "rehypothecated" (re-used) several times over, creating new money that augments the money supply just as would happen if it were issued directly.
多位金融评论员建议，如果财政部直接无债务发行预算资金，情况会更好。具有计算机科学和大宗商品交易背景的经济预测师马丁·阿姆斯特朗认为，如果我们一开始就这么做，国债规模可能只有现在的40%。实际上，他认为如今的债务等同于货币，只是附带利息。联邦证券可以在回购市场作为贷款抵押品，且抵押品可被"再抵押"（重复使用）多次，创造新货币增加供应量，效果与直接发行无异。
Chris Martenson, another economic researcher and trend forecaster, asked in a Nov. 21 podcast,The argument for borrowing rather than printing is that the government is borrowing existing money, "What great harm would happen if the Treasury just issued its own money directly and didn’t borrow it? … You’re still overspending, you still probably have inflation, but now you’re not paying interest on it." so it will not expand the money supply. That was true when money consisted of gold and silver coins, but it is not true today. In fact borrowing the money is now more inflationary, increasing the money supply more, than if it were just issued directly, due to the way the government borrows. It issues securities (bills, bonds and notes) that are bid on at auction by sexted "primary dealers" (mostly very large banks). Quoting from Investopedia:
另一位经济研究员兼趋势预测师克里斯·马滕森在11月21日的播客中质疑道，支持借贷而非印钞的理由是政府借入现有货币，"如果财政部直接发行货币而不借贷会有什么大害？……你们仍在超支，可能仍有通胀，但现在不用支付利息了。"因此不会扩大货币供应。这在货币由金银硬币组成的时代成立，但如今已非事实。实际上由于政府借贷方式（通过拍卖向选定的"一级交易商"——主要是超大银行——发行证券），借贷比直接发行更具通胀性，更会增加货币供应。引自Investopedia：
"Because most modern economies rely on fractional reserve banking, when primary dealers purchase government debt in the form of Treasury securities, they are able to increase their reserves and expand the money supply by lending it out. This is known as the money multiplier effect."
"由于多数现代经济体依赖部分准备金银行制度，当一级交易商以国债形式购买政府债务时，他们能通过放贷增加准备金并扩大货币供应。这被称为货币乘数效应。"
Thus, "the government increases cash reserves in the banking system," and "the increase in reserves raises the money supply in the economy." And because the debt is never repaid but just gets rolled over from year to year along with the interest due on it, the interest compounds, an increasing amount of debt-at-interest is generated, and the money supply and inflation go up.
因此，"政府增加了银行系统的现金储备"，而"储备增加会推高经济中的货币供应量"。由于债务从未偿还只是连本带利逐年展期，利息复利计算，生息债务不断增加，货币供应和通胀随之上升。
U.S. Currency Should Be Issued by the U.S. Government
美元应由美国政府发行
Well over 90% of the U.S. money supply today is issued not by the government but by private banks when they make loans. As Thomas Edison argued in 1921, "It is absurd to say that our country can issue $30 million in bonds and not $30 million in currency. Both are promises to pay, but one promise fattens the usurers and the other helps the people."
如今美国超过90%的货币供应并非由政府发行，而是私营银行放贷时创造的。正如托马斯·爱迪生1921年所言："说我国能发行3000万美元债券却不能发行3000万美元货币是荒谬的。两者都是支付承诺，但一个养肥了高利贷者，另一个造福人民。"
The government could avoid increasing the debt by printing the money for its budget as President Lincoln did, as U.S. Notes or "Greenbacks." Donald Trump acknowledged in 2016 that the government never has to default "because you print the money," echoing Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett and others. So writes Prof. Stephanie Kelton in a Dec. 2, 2024 blog.Alternatively, the Treasury could mint some trillion dollar coins. The Constitution gives Congress the power to coin money and regulate its value, and no limit is put on the value of the coins it creates. In legislation initiated in 1982, Congress chose to impose limits on the amounts and denominations of most coins, but a special provision allowed the platinum coin to be minted in any amount for commemorative purposes. Philip Diehl, former head of the U.S. Mint and co-author of the platinum coin law, confirmed that the coin would be legal tender:
政府可以像林肯总统那样通过印刷美钞（即"绿背纸币"）为预算融资而避免增加债务。唐纳德·特朗普2016年承认政府永远不必违约"因为你们能印钱"，这与艾伦·格林斯潘、沃伦·巴菲特等人的观点一致。斯蒂芬妮·凯尔顿教授在2024年12月2日的博客中写道。或者，财政部可以铸造万亿硬币。宪法赋予国会铸币和规定币值的权力，且对硬币面值无上限。1982年立法中，国会对多数硬币设置了数量和面额限制，但特别条款允许为纪念目的铸造任意面值的铂金硬币。前美国铸币局局长、铂金硬币法合著者菲利普·迪尔确认该硬币将是法定货币：
"In minting the $1 trillion platinum coin, the Treasury Secretary would be exercising authority which Congress has granted routinely for more than 220 years … under power expressly granted to Congress in the Constitution (Article 1, Section 8). "
"铸造1万亿美元铂金硬币时，财政部长将行使国会220多年来常规授予的权力……基于宪法第一条第八款明确赋予国会的权力。"
To prevent congressional overspending, a budget ceiling could be imposed – as it is now, although the terms would probably need to be revised.
为防止国会超支，可设置预算上限——正如现行做法，尽管条款可能需要修订。
Eliminating the Debt
消除债务
Those maneuvers would prevent the federal debt from growing, but it still would not eliminate the trillion dollar interest tab on the existing $36 trillion debt. The only permanent solution is to eliminate the debt itself. In ancient Mesopotamia, when the king was the creditor, this was done with periodic debt jubilees — just cancel the debt. (See Michael Hudson, And Forgive Them Their Debts.) But that is not possible today because the creditors are private banks and private investors who have a contractual right to be paid, and the U.S. Constitution requires that the government pay its debts as and when due.
这些操作能阻止联邦债务增长，但仍无法消除现有36万亿美元债务的万亿利息负担。唯一永久解决方案是消除债务本身。在古代美索不达米亚，当国王是债权人时，通过定期债务豁免（直接取消债务）实现。（参见迈克尔·哈德森《赦免他们的债务》）。但如今这不可行，因为债权人是拥有法定受偿权的私营银行和私人投资者，且美国宪法要求政府按时偿债。
Another possibility is a financial transaction tax, which could replace both income and sales taxes while still generating enough to fund the government and pay off the debt. See Scott Smith, A Tale of Two Economies: A New Financial Operating System for the American Economy (2023) and my earlier article here. But that solution has been discussed for years without gaining traction in Congress.
另一种可能是金融交易税，既可替代所得税和销售税，又能产生足够资金维持政府运作并偿债。参见斯科特·史密斯《双城记：美国经济新金融操作系统》（2023年）及我早前文章。但该方案讨论多年仍未在国会获得支持。
Another alternative is to have the Federal Reserve buy the debt as it comes due. For the last few years, the Treasury has been issuing an estimated 30% of its debt as short-term bills rather than 10-year or 30-year bonds. As a result, in 2023 approximately 31% of the outstanding debt came due for renewal. As usual, it was just rolled over into new debt. But the nearly one-third coming due in FY2025 could be bought in the open market by the Federal Reserve, which is required to return its profits to the government after deducting its costs, making the debt virtually interest-free. Interest-free debt carried on the books and rolled over does not raise the federal deficit. If a third of the outstanding debt is too much to monetize in one year to avoid inflation, this maneuver could be spread out over a number of years.
另一选择是让美联储在债务到期时购买。过去几年，财政部发行约30%的短期票据而非10年或30年期债券，因此2023年约31%的未偿债务到期续作，照例只是展期为新债务。但2025财年到期近三分之一的债务可由美联储在公开市场购买，而美联储扣除成本后需将利润返还政府，使债务几乎无息。账面无息债务展期不会增加联邦赤字。若为避免通胀无法一年内货币化三分之一的未偿债务，可分散到多年操作。
Mandating that action by an "independent" Fed would require an amendment to the Federal Reserve Act, but Congress has the power to amend it and has done so several times over the years. The incoming Administration is proposing more radical moves than that, including eliminating the income tax, ending the Fed, auditing the Fed, or merging it with the Treasury.The federal interest tab nearly doubled after April 2022, when the Fed initiated "Quantitative Tightening." It reduced its balance sheet by selling over $2 trillion in federal securities into the economy, reducing the money supply, and by hiking the federal funds rate to as high as 5.5%. Arguably the Fed has overtightened and needs to reverse that trend by buying federal securities, injecting new money into the economy.
强制"独立"的美联储采取该行动需修订《联邦储备法》，但国会有权修订且多年来多次修订。新政府正提议更激进的举措，包括取消所得税、终结美联储、审计美联储或将其与财政部合并。联邦利息负担在2022年4月美联储启动"量化紧缩"后几乎翻倍。美联储通过向经济出售超2万亿美元联邦证券缩减资产负债表，减少货币供应，并将联邦基金利率提高至5.5%，可以说美联储过度紧缩，需要通过购买联邦证券向经济注入新资金逆转趋势。
How to Avoid Hyperinflation
如何避免恶性通胀
Alarmed economists contend that a Weimar-style hyperinflation is the inevitable outcome of government-issued money. But as Michael Hudson points out, "Every hyperinflation in history has been caused by foreign debt service collapsing the exchange rate. The problem almost always has resulted from wartime foreign currency strains, not domestic spending."
警觉的经济学家声称魏玛式恶性通胀是政府发行货币的必然结果。但迈克尔·哈德森指出，"历史上每次恶性通胀都因外债偿付压垮汇率所致。问题几乎总源于战时外币压力，而非国内支出。"
Issuing the money directly will not inflate prices if the funds are used to increase the domestic supply of goods and services. Supply and demand will then go up together, keeping prices stable. This has been illustrated historically, perhaps most dramatically in China. The People’s Bank of China manages the money supply by a variety of means including just printing currency. In 28 years, from 1996 to 2024, China’s money supply (M2) grew by 52 times or 5,200%, yet hyperinflation did not result. Prices remained stable because the funds went into increasing GDP, which went up along with the money supply.
若资金用于增加国内商品和服务供应，直接发行货币不会推高价格。供需将同步增长，保持价格稳定。历史上已有例证，或许中国最显著。中国人民银行通过包括印钞在内的多种手段管理货币供应。1996至2024年的28年间，中国货币供应量（M2）增长52倍达5200%，但未引发恶性通胀。价格保持稳定因为资金流入了与货币供应同步增长的GDP。
Price inflation during the Covid crisis has been blamed on the Fed monetizing Congressional fiscal payments to consumers and businesses, increasing demand (the circulating money supply) without increasing supply (goods and services). But the San Francisco Fed concluded that the surge in global shipping and transportation costs due to COVID, along with delivery delays and backlogs, were a greater contributor than this fiscal stimulus to the runup of headline inflation in 2021 and 2022. The supply of goods could have been increased – producers could have increased production to respond to the increase in demand — were it not for the shutdown of more than 700,000 productive businesses labeled "non-essential," resulting in the loss of three million jobs.
新冠危机期间的价格通胀被归咎于美联储货币化国会向消费者和企业发放的财政补贴，增加需求（流通货币供应）而未增加供应（商品和服务）。但旧金山联储得出结论，COVID导致的全球航运和运输成本激增及交付延迟和积压，比财政刺激对2021-2022年通胀上升的影响更大。若非70多万家被标为"非必要"的生产企业关停导致300万个工作岗位流失，商品供应本可增加——生产商本可增产应对需求增长。
Swapping Debt for Productive Equity
债务换生产性股权
Money printing is not inflationary if the money is issued for productive purposes, raising GDP in lockstep; but how can we be sure that the new money will be used productively? Today the banks and other large institutions that first receive any newly-issued money are more likely to invest it speculatively, driving up the price of existing assets (homes, stocks, etc.) without creating new goods and services.
若为生产目的发行货币，同步提升GDP，印钞不会引发通胀；但如何确保新货币被生产性使用？如今首先获得新发行货币的银行和其他大机构更可能投机性投资，推高现有资产（房产、股票等）价格而不创造新商品和服务。
Economic blogger Martin Armstrong observes that one solution pursued by debt-ridden countries is to swap the debt for equity in productive assets. This has been done by Mexico, Poland, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and the United States itself. It was the solution of Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton in dealing with the overwhelming debt of the First U.S. Congress. State and federal debt was swapped along with gold for shares in the First U.S. Bank, paying a 6% dividend. The Bank then issued U.S. currency at up to 10 times this capital base, on the fractional reserve model still used by banks today. Both the First and the Second U.S. Banks were designed to support manufacturing and production, according to Hamilton’s Report on Public Credit.
经济博主马丁·阿姆斯特朗指出，负债国的一种解决方案是用债务交换生产性资产股权。墨西哥、波兰、克罗地亚、捷克、匈牙利和美国自身都这样做过。这是财政部长亚历山大·汉密尔顿处理第一届国会巨额债务的方案。州和联邦债务连同黄金被置换为美国第一银行股份，支付6%股息。该银行随后以高达资本金10倍的规模发行美元，采用银行至今沿用的部分准备金模式。根据汉密尔顿《公共信用报告》，第一和第二美国银行都旨在支持制造业和生产。
Following the Hamiltonian model is H.R. 4052, the National Infrastructure Bank Act of 2023 (NIB) now pending in Congress. The NIB proposal is to swap privately-held federal securities (Treasury bonds) for non-voting preferred stock in the bank. Interest on the bonds would continue to go to the investors, along with a 2% stock dividend. That would not eliminate the debt or the interest, but if the Federal Reserve were to buy federal securities on the open market and swap them for NIB stock, the securities would essentially remain interest-free, since again the Fed is required to return its profits to the Treasury after deducting its costs.
效仿汉密尔顿模式的是正在国会审议的《2023年国家基础设施银行法案》（H.R. 4052）。NIB提议用私人持有的联邦证券（国债）交换该银行无投票权优先股。债券利息将继续支付投资者，外加2%股票股息。这不会消除债务或利息，但如果美联储在公开市场购买联邦证券并置换为NIB股票，由于美联储需在扣除成本后将利润返还财政部，这些证券实质上仍是无息的。
Lending Directly to Productive Businesses
直接向生产企业放贷
Another possibility for using newly issued money to increase the supply of goods and services is for the Federal Reserve to make loans directly to productive businesses. That was actually the intent of the original Federal Reserve Act. Section 13 of the Act allows Federal Reserve Banks to discount notes, drafts, and bills of exchange arising out of actual commercial transactions, such as those issued for agricultural, industrial or commercial purposes – in other words, lending directly for production and development. "Discounting commercial paper" is a process by which short-term loans are provided to financial institutions using commercial paper as collateral. (Commercial paper is unsecured short-term debt, usually issued at a discount, used to cover payroll, inventory and other short-term liabilities. The "discount" represents the interest to the lender.)According to Prof. Carl Walsh, writing of the Federal Reserve Act in The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Newsletter in 1991:
利用新发行货币增加商品和服务供应的另一可能是美联储直接向生产企业放贷。这实际上是《联邦储备法》的原意。该法第13条允许联邦储备银行贴现源于实际商业交易（如农业、工业或商业用途）的票据、汇票和交换票据——即直接为生产和发展放贷。"贴现商业票据"是以商业票据为抵押向金融机构提供短期贷款的过程。（商业票据是无担保短期债务，通常折价发行，用于支付工资、库存等短期负债。"贴现"代表贷款人利息。）根据卡尔·沃尔什教授1991年在旧金山联储通讯中的论述：
"The preamble sets out very clearly that one purpose of the Federal Reserve Act was to afford a means of discounting commercial loans. In its report on the proposed bill, the House Banking and Currency Committee viewed a fundamental obxtive of the bill to be the "creation of a joint mechanism for the extension of credit to banks which possess sound assets and which desire to liquidate them for the purpose of meeting legitimate commercial, agricultural, and industrial demands on the part of their clientele."
"序言明确指出《联邦储备法》目的之一是提供商业贷款贴现手段。众议院银行与货币委员会在法案报告中视其根本目标为'建立联合机制，向拥有稳健资产且希望变现以满足客户合法商业、农业和工业需求的银行扩展信贷'。"
Cornell Law School Professor Robert Hockett expanded on this design in an article in Forbes in March 2021:
康奈尔法学院教授罗伯特·霍克特2021年3月在《福布斯》文章中详述了这一设计：
[T]he founders of the Federal Reserve System in 1913 … designed something akin to a network of regional development finance institutions. … Each of the twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks was to provide short-term funding directly or indirectly (through local banks) to developing businesses that needed it. This they did by ‘discounting’ – in effect, purchasing – commercial paper from those businesses that needed it … [I]n determining what kinds of commercial paper to discount, the Federal Reserve Act both was – and ironically remains – quite explicit about this: Fed discount lending is solely for "productive," not "speculative" purposes.
1913年美联储体系的创立者……设计了一个类似区域开发金融机构的网络。……12家地区联储银行都应直接或间接（通过地方银行）向需要资金的成长中企业提供短期融资。他们通过"贴现"——实质是购买——这些企业的商业票据实现。……在决定贴现何种商业票据时，《联邦储备法》过去——且讽刺的是现在仍——非常明确：联储贴现贷款仅用于"生产性"而非"投机性"目的。
Today discounting commercial paper is big business, but the lenders are private and the borrowers are large institutions issuing commercial paper in denominations of $100,000 or more. Except for its emergency Commercial Paper Funding Facility operated from 2020 to 2021 and from 2008 to 2010, the Fed no longer engages in the commercial loan business. Meanwhile, small businesses are having trouble finding affordable financing.
如今商业票据贴现是大生意，但贷款方是私人的，借款方是发行面额10万美元以上商业票据的大机构。除2020-2021年和2008-2010年运作的紧急商业票据融资机制外，美联储不再参与商业贷款业务。与此同时，小企业难以获得可负担融资。
In a sequel to his March 2021 article, Hockett explained that the drafters of the Federal Reserve Act, notably Carter Glass and Paul Warburg, were essentially following the Real Bills Doctrine (RBD). Previously known as the "commercial loan theory of banking," it held that banks could create credit-money deposits on their balance sheets without triggering inflation if the money were issued against loans backed by commercial paper. When the borrowing companies repaid their loans from their sales receipts, the newly created money would just void out the debt and be extinguished. Their intent was that banks could sell their commercial loans at a discount at the Fed’s Discount Window, freeing up their balance sheets for more loans. Hockett wrote:
在2021年3月文章的续篇中，霍克特解释《联邦储备法》起草者——特别是卡特·格拉斯和保罗·沃伯格——实质上遵循了真实票据学说（RBD）。该学说曾称"银行业商业贷款理论"，认为若货币发行基于商业票据担保的贷款，银行可在资产负债表上创造信用货币存款而不引发通胀。当借款公司用销售收入偿还贷款时，新创造的货币将抵消债务并消失。他们的意图是银行可在联储贴现窗口折价出售商业贷款，释放资产负债表空间进行更多放贷。霍克特写道：
"The RBD in its crude formulation held that so long as the lending of endogenous [bank-created] credit-money was kept productive, not speculative, inflation and deflation would be not only less likely, but effectively impossible. And the experience of German banks during Germany’s late 19th century Hamiltonian ‘growth miracle,’ with which the German immigrant Warburg, himself a banker, was intimately familiar, appeared to verify this. So did Glass’s experience with agricultural lending in the American South. "
"粗略表述的真实票据学说认为，只要内生（银行创造的）信用货币的借贷保持生产性而非投机性，通胀和通缩不仅可能性更低，而且实际上不可能发生。德国移民沃伯格（本人是银行家）密切了解的19世纪末德国汉密尔顿式'增长奇迹'期间德国银行的经验似乎验证了这点。格拉斯在美国南部的农业贷款经历也是如此。"
Prof. Hockett suggested regionalizing the Fed, expanding it from the current 12 Federal Reserve banks to many banks. He wrote in August 2021:
霍克特教授建议美联储区域化，从当前12家联储银行扩展到多家。他在2021年8月写道：
"In time, we might even imagine a proliferation of public banks, patterned more or less after the highly successful Bank of North Dakota model, spreading across multiple states. These banks could then both afford nonprofit banking services to all, and assist the Fed Regional Banks in identifying appropriate recipients of Fed liquidity assistance. "
"假以时日，我们甚至可以设想以高度成功的北达科他州银行为模板的公立银行激增，遍布多个州。这些银行既能向所有人提供非营利银行服务，又能协助联储地区银行识别合适的流动性援助对象。"
The result, he said, will be "a Fed restored to its original purpose, a Fed responsive to varying local conditions in a sprawling continental republic, a Fed no longer over-involved with banks whose principal if not sole activities are in gambling on price movements in secondary and tertiary markets rather than investing in the primary markets that constitute our ‘real’ economy. It will mean, in short, something approaching a true people’s bank, not just a banks’ bank."
他说，结果将是"回归初衷"的美联储，响应广阔大陆共和国各地不同状况的美联储，不再过度涉足那些主要（若非全部）活动是在二三级市场押注价格波动而非投资构成我们'实体经济'的一级市场的银行的美联储。简言之，这将意味着接近真正的'人民的银行'，而不仅仅是'银行的银行'。"
The U.S. national debt just passed $36 trillion, only four months after it passed $35 trillion and up $2 trillion for the year. Third quarter data is not yet available, but interest payments as a percent of tax receipts rose to 37.8% in the third quarter of 2024, the highest since 1996. That means interest is eating up over one-third of our tax revenues.
美国国债刚刚突破36万亿美元，仅在突破35万亿美元四个月后，全年增加了2万亿美元。虽然第三季度数据尚未公布，但2024年第三季度利息支出占税收的比例已升至37.8%，为1996年以来的最高水平。这意味着利息吞噬了我们超过三分之一的税收收入。
Total interest for the fiscal year hit $1.16 trillion, topping one trillion for the first time ever. That breaks down to $3 billion per day. For comparative purposes, an estimated $11 billion, or less than four days’ federal interest, would pay the median rent for all the homeless people in America for a year. The damage from Hurricane Helene in North Carolina alone is estimated at $53.6 billion, for which the state is expected to receive only $13.6 billion in federal support. The $40 billion funding gap is a sum we pay in less than two weeks in interest on the federal debt.
本财年利息总额达到1.16万亿美元，首次突破万亿大关，平均每天30亿美元。作为对比，估计110亿美元（不到四天的联邦利息）就足够支付全美无家可归者一年的中位数租金。仅北卡罗来纳州飓风"海伦"造成的损失就达536亿美元，而该州预计只能获得136亿美元的联邦援助。这400亿美元的资金缺口，我们支付不到两周的联邦债务利息就能覆盖。
The current debt trajectory is clearly unsustainable, but what can be done about it? Raising taxes and trimming the budget can slow future growth of the debt, but they are unable to fix the underlying problem — a debt grown so massive that just the interest on it is crowding out expenditures on the public goods that are the primary purpose of government.
当前的债务轨迹显然不可持续，但我们能做什么？增税和削减预算可以减缓债务的未来增长，但无法解决根本问题——债务规模如此庞大，仅利息支出就挤占了政府主要职能所需的公共产品支出。
Borrowing Is Actually More Inflationary Than Printing
借贷实际上比印钞更具通胀性
Several financial commentators have suggested that we would be better off if the Treasury issued the money for the budget outright, debt-free. Martin Armstrong, an economic forecaster with a background in computer science and commodities trading, contends that if we had just done that in the first place, the national debt would be only 40% of what it is today. In fact, he argues, debt today is the same as money, except that it comes with interest. Federal securities can be posted in the repo market as collateral for an equivalent in loans, and the collateral can be "rehypothecated" (re-used) several times over, creating new money that augments the money supply just as would happen if it were issued directly.
多位金融评论员建议，如果财政部直接无债务发行预算资金，情况会更好。具有计算机科学和大宗商品交易背景的经济预测师马丁·阿姆斯特朗认为，如果我们一开始就这么做，国债规模可能只有现在的40%。实际上，他认为如今的债务等同于货币，只是附带利息。联邦证券可以在回购市场作为贷款抵押品，且抵押品可被"再抵押"（重复使用）多次，创造新货币增加供应量，效果与直接发行无异。
Chris Martenson, another economic researcher and trend forecaster, asked in a Nov. 21 podcast,The argument for borrowing rather than printing is that the government is borrowing existing money, "What great harm would happen if the Treasury just issued its own money directly and didn’t borrow it? … You’re still overspending, you still probably have inflation, but now you’re not paying interest on it." so it will not expand the money supply. That was true when money consisted of gold and silver coins, but it is not true today. In fact borrowing the money is now more inflationary, increasing the money supply more, than if it were just issued directly, due to the way the government borrows. It issues securities (bills, bonds and notes) that are bid on at auction by sexted "primary dealers" (mostly very large banks). Quoting from Investopedia:
另一位经济研究员兼趋势预测师克里斯·马滕森在11月21日的播客中质疑道，支持借贷而非印钞的理由是政府借入现有货币，"如果财政部直接发行货币而不借贷会有什么大害？……你们仍在超支，可能仍有通胀，但现在不用支付利息了。"因此不会扩大货币供应。这在货币由金银硬币组成的时代成立，但如今已非事实。实际上由于政府借贷方式（通过拍卖向选定的"一级交易商"——主要是超大银行——发行证券），借贷比直接发行更具通胀性，更会增加货币供应。引自Investopedia：
"Because most modern economies rely on fractional reserve banking, when primary dealers purchase government debt in the form of Treasury securities, they are able to increase their reserves and expand the money supply by lending it out. This is known as the money multiplier effect."
"由于多数现代经济体依赖部分准备金银行制度，当一级交易商以国债形式购买政府债务时，他们能通过放贷增加准备金并扩大货币供应。这被称为货币乘数效应。"
Thus, "the government increases cash reserves in the banking system," and "the increase in reserves raises the money supply in the economy." And because the debt is never repaid but just gets rolled over from year to year along with the interest due on it, the interest compounds, an increasing amount of debt-at-interest is generated, and the money supply and inflation go up.
因此，"政府增加了银行系统的现金储备"，而"储备增加会推高经济中的货币供应量"。由于债务从未偿还只是连本带利逐年展期，利息复利计算，生息债务不断增加，货币供应和通胀随之上升。
U.S. Currency Should Be Issued by the U.S. Government
美元应由美国政府发行
Well over 90% of the U.S. money supply today is issued not by the government but by private banks when they make loans. As Thomas Edison argued in 1921, "It is absurd to say that our country can issue $30 million in bonds and not $30 million in currency. Both are promises to pay, but one promise fattens the usurers and the other helps the people."
如今美国超过90%的货币供应并非由政府发行，而是私营银行放贷时创造的。正如托马斯·爱迪生1921年所言："说我国能发行3000万美元债券却不能发行3000万美元货币是荒谬的。两者都是支付承诺，但一个养肥了高利贷者，另一个造福人民。"
The government could avoid increasing the debt by printing the money for its budget as President Lincoln did, as U.S. Notes or "Greenbacks." Donald Trump acknowledged in 2016 that the government never has to default "because you print the money," echoing Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett and others. So writes Prof. Stephanie Kelton in a Dec. 2, 2024 blog.Alternatively, the Treasury could mint some trillion dollar coins. The Constitution gives Congress the power to coin money and regulate its value, and no limit is put on the value of the coins it creates. In legislation initiated in 1982, Congress chose to impose limits on the amounts and denominations of most coins, but a special provision allowed the platinum coin to be minted in any amount for commemorative purposes. Philip Diehl, former head of the U.S. Mint and co-author of the platinum coin law, confirmed that the coin would be legal tender:
政府可以像林肯总统那样通过印刷美钞（即"绿背纸币"）为预算融资而避免增加债务。唐纳德·特朗普2016年承认政府永远不必违约"因为你们能印钱"，这与艾伦·格林斯潘、沃伦·巴菲特等人的观点一致。斯蒂芬妮·凯尔顿教授在2024年12月2日的博客中写道。或者，财政部可以铸造万亿硬币。宪法赋予国会铸币和规定币值的权力，且对硬币面值无上限。1982年立法中，国会对多数硬币设置了数量和面额限制，但特别条款允许为纪念目的铸造任意面值的铂金硬币。前美国铸币局局长、铂金硬币法合著者菲利普·迪尔确认该硬币将是法定货币：
"In minting the $1 trillion platinum coin, the Treasury Secretary would be exercising authority which Congress has granted routinely for more than 220 years … under power expressly granted to Congress in the Constitution (Article 1, Section 8). "
"铸造1万亿美元铂金硬币时，财政部长将行使国会220多年来常规授予的权力……基于宪法第一条第八款明确赋予国会的权力。"
To prevent congressional overspending, a budget ceiling could be imposed – as it is now, although the terms would probably need to be revised.
为防止国会超支，可设置预算上限——正如现行做法，尽管条款可能需要修订。
Eliminating the Debt
消除债务
Those maneuvers would prevent the federal debt from growing, but it still would not eliminate the trillion dollar interest tab on the existing $36 trillion debt. The only permanent solution is to eliminate the debt itself. In ancient Mesopotamia, when the king was the creditor, this was done with periodic debt jubilees — just cancel the debt. (See Michael Hudson, And Forgive Them Their Debts.) But that is not possible today because the creditors are private banks and private investors who have a contractual right to be paid, and the U.S. Constitution requires that the government pay its debts as and when due.
这些操作能阻止联邦债务增长，但仍无法消除现有36万亿美元债务的万亿利息负担。唯一永久解决方案是消除债务本身。在古代美索不达米亚，当国王是债权人时，通过定期债务豁免（直接取消债务）实现。（参见迈克尔·哈德森《赦免他们的债务》）。但如今这不可行，因为债权人是拥有法定受偿权的私营银行和私人投资者，且美国宪法要求政府按时偿债。
Another possibility is a financial transaction tax, which could replace both income and sales taxes while still generating enough to fund the government and pay off the debt. See Scott Smith, A Tale of Two Economies: A New Financial Operating System for the American Economy (2023) and my earlier article here. But that solution has been discussed for years without gaining traction in Congress.
另一种可能是金融交易税，既可替代所得税和销售税，又能产生足够资金维持政府运作并偿债。参见斯科特·史密斯《双城记：美国经济新金融操作系统》（2023年）及我早前文章。但该方案讨论多年仍未在国会获得支持。
Another alternative is to have the Federal Reserve buy the debt as it comes due. For the last few years, the Treasury has been issuing an estimated 30% of its debt as short-term bills rather than 10-year or 30-year bonds. As a result, in 2023 approximately 31% of the outstanding debt came due for renewal. As usual, it was just rolled over into new debt. But the nearly one-third coming due in FY2025 could be bought in the open market by the Federal Reserve, which is required to return its profits to the government after deducting its costs, making the debt virtually interest-free. Interest-free debt carried on the books and rolled over does not raise the federal deficit. If a third of the outstanding debt is too much to monetize in one year to avoid inflation, this maneuver could be spread out over a number of years.
另一选择是让美联储在债务到期时购买。过去几年，财政部发行约30%的短期票据而非10年或30年期债券，因此2023年约31%的未偿债务到期续作，照例只是展期为新债务。但2025财年到期近三分之一的债务可由美联储在公开市场购买，而美联储扣除成本后需将利润返还政府，使债务几乎无息。账面无息债务展期不会增加联邦赤字。若为避免通胀无法一年内货币化三分之一的未偿债务，可分散到多年操作。
Mandating that action by an "independent" Fed would require an amendment to the Federal Reserve Act, but Congress has the power to amend it and has done so several times over the years. The incoming Administration is proposing more radical moves than that, including eliminating the income tax, ending the Fed, auditing the Fed, or merging it with the Treasury.The federal interest tab nearly doubled after April 2022, when the Fed initiated "Quantitative Tightening." It reduced its balance sheet by selling over $2 trillion in federal securities into the economy, reducing the money supply, and by hiking the federal funds rate to as high as 5.5%. Arguably the Fed has overtightened and needs to reverse that trend by buying federal securities, injecting new money into the economy.
强制"独立"的美联储采取该行动需修订《联邦储备法》，但国会有权修订且多年来多次修订。新政府正提议更激进的举措，包括取消所得税、终结美联储、审计美联储或将其与财政部合并。联邦利息负担在2022年4月美联储启动"量化紧缩"后几乎翻倍。美联储通过向经济出售超2万亿美元联邦证券缩减资产负债表，减少货币供应，并将联邦基金利率提高至5.5%，可以说美联储过度紧缩，需要通过购买联邦证券向经济注入新资金逆转趋势。
How to Avoid Hyperinflation
如何避免恶性通胀
Alarmed economists contend that a Weimar-style hyperinflation is the inevitable outcome of government-issued money. But as Michael Hudson points out, "Every hyperinflation in history has been caused by foreign debt service collapsing the exchange rate. The problem almost always has resulted from wartime foreign currency strains, not domestic spending."
警觉的经济学家声称魏玛式恶性通胀是政府发行货币的必然结果。但迈克尔·哈德森指出，"历史上每次恶性通胀都因外债偿付压垮汇率所致。问题几乎总源于战时外币压力，而非国内支出。"
Issuing the money directly will not inflate prices if the funds are used to increase the domestic supply of goods and services. Supply and demand will then go up together, keeping prices stable. This has been illustrated historically, perhaps most dramatically in China. The People’s Bank of China manages the money supply by a variety of means including just printing currency. In 28 years, from 1996 to 2024, China’s money supply (M2) grew by 52 times or 5,200%, yet hyperinflation did not result. Prices remained stable because the funds went into increasing GDP, which went up along with the money supply.
若资金用于增加国内商品和服务供应，直接发行货币不会推高价格。供需将同步增长，保持价格稳定。历史上已有例证，或许中国最显著。中国人民银行通过包括印钞在内的多种手段管理货币供应。1996至2024年的28年间，中国货币供应量（M2）增长52倍达5200%，但未引发恶性通胀。价格保持稳定因为资金流入了与货币供应同步增长的GDP。
Price inflation during the Covid crisis has been blamed on the Fed monetizing Congressional fiscal payments to consumers and businesses, increasing demand (the circulating money supply) without increasing supply (goods and services). But the San Francisco Fed concluded that the surge in global shipping and transportation costs due to COVID, along with delivery delays and backlogs, were a greater contributor than this fiscal stimulus to the runup of headline inflation in 2021 and 2022. The supply of goods could have been increased – producers could have increased production to respond to the increase in demand — were it not for the shutdown of more than 700,000 productive businesses labeled "non-essential," resulting in the loss of three million jobs.
新冠危机期间的价格通胀被归咎于美联储货币化国会向消费者和企业发放的财政补贴，增加需求（流通货币供应）而未增加供应（商品和服务）。但旧金山联储得出结论，COVID导致的全球航运和运输成本激增及交付延迟和积压，比财政刺激对2021-2022年通胀上升的影响更大。若非70多万家被标为"非必要"的生产企业关停导致300万个工作岗位流失，商品供应本可增加——生产商本可增产应对需求增长。
Swapping Debt for Productive Equity
债务换生产性股权
Money printing is not inflationary if the money is issued for productive purposes, raising GDP in lockstep; but how can we be sure that the new money will be used productively? Today the banks and other large institutions that first receive any newly-issued money are more likely to invest it speculatively, driving up the price of existing assets (homes, stocks, etc.) without creating new goods and services.
若为生产目的发行货币，同步提升GDP，印钞不会引发通胀；但如何确保新货币被生产性使用？如今首先获得新发行货币的银行和其他大机构更可能投机性投资，推高现有资产（房产、股票等）价格而不创造新商品和服务。
Economic blogger Martin Armstrong observes that one solution pursued by debt-ridden countries is to swap the debt for equity in productive assets. This has been done by Mexico, Poland, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and the United States itself. It was the solution of Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton in dealing with the overwhelming debt of the First U.S. Congress. State and federal debt was swapped along with gold for shares in the First U.S. Bank, paying a 6% dividend. The Bank then issued U.S. currency at up to 10 times this capital base, on the fractional reserve model still used by banks today. Both the First and the Second U.S. Banks were designed to support manufacturing and production, according to Hamilton’s Report on Public Credit.
经济博主马丁·阿姆斯特朗指出，负债国的一种解决方案是用债务交换生产性资产股权。墨西哥、波兰、克罗地亚、捷克、匈牙利和美国自身都这样做过。这是财政部长亚历山大·汉密尔顿处理第一届国会巨额债务的方案。州和联邦债务连同黄金被置换为美国第一银行股份，支付6%股息。该银行随后以高达资本金10倍的规模发行美元，采用银行至今沿用的部分准备金模式。根据汉密尔顿《公共信用报告》，第一和第二美国银行都旨在支持制造业和生产。
Following the Hamiltonian model is H.R. 4052, the National Infrastructure Bank Act of 2023 (NIB) now pending in Congress. The NIB proposal is to swap privately-held federal securities (Treasury bonds) for non-voting preferred stock in the bank. Interest on the bonds would continue to go to the investors, along with a 2% stock dividend. That would not eliminate the debt or the interest, but if the Federal Reserve were to buy federal securities on the open market and swap them for NIB stock, the securities would essentially remain interest-free, since again the Fed is required to return its profits to the Treasury after deducting its costs.
效仿汉密尔顿模式的是正在国会审议的《2023年国家基础设施银行法案》（H.R. 4052）。NIB提议用私人持有的联邦证券（国债）交换该银行无投票权优先股。债券利息将继续支付投资者，外加2%股票股息。这不会消除债务或利息，但如果美联储在公开市场购买联邦证券并置换为NIB股票，由于美联储需在扣除成本后将利润返还财政部，这些证券实质上仍是无息的。
Lending Directly to Productive Businesses
直接向生产企业放贷
Another possibility for using newly issued money to increase the supply of goods and services is for the Federal Reserve to make loans directly to productive businesses. That was actually the intent of the original Federal Reserve Act. Section 13 of the Act allows Federal Reserve Banks to discount notes, drafts, and bills of exchange arising out of actual commercial transactions, such as those issued for agricultural, industrial or commercial purposes – in other words, lending directly for production and development. "Discounting commercial paper" is a process by which short-term loans are provided to financial institutions using commercial paper as collateral. (Commercial paper is unsecured short-term debt, usually issued at a discount, used to cover payroll, inventory and other short-term liabilities. The "discount" represents the interest to the lender.)According to Prof. Carl Walsh, writing of the Federal Reserve Act in The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Newsletter in 1991:
利用新发行货币增加商品和服务供应的另一可能是美联储直接向生产企业放贷。这实际上是《联邦储备法》的原意。该法第13条允许联邦储备银行贴现源于实际商业交易（如农业、工业或商业用途）的票据、汇票和交换票据——即直接为生产和发展放贷。"贴现商业票据"是以商业票据为抵押向金融机构提供短期贷款的过程。（商业票据是无担保短期债务，通常折价发行，用于支付工资、库存等短期负债。"贴现"代表贷款人利息。）根据卡尔·沃尔什教授1991年在旧金山联储通讯中的论述：
"The preamble sets out very clearly that one purpose of the Federal Reserve Act was to afford a means of discounting commercial loans. In its report on the proposed bill, the House Banking and Currency Committee viewed a fundamental obxtive of the bill to be the "creation of a joint mechanism for the extension of credit to banks which possess sound assets and which desire to liquidate them for the purpose of meeting legitimate commercial, agricultural, and industrial demands on the part of their clientele."
"序言明确指出《联邦储备法》目的之一是提供商业贷款贴现手段。众议院银行与货币委员会在法案报告中视其根本目标为'建立联合机制，向拥有稳健资产且希望变现以满足客户合法商业、农业和工业需求的银行扩展信贷'。"
Cornell Law School Professor Robert Hockett expanded on this design in an article in Forbes in March 2021:
康奈尔法学院教授罗伯特·霍克特2021年3月在《福布斯》文章中详述了这一设计：
[T]he founders of the Federal Reserve System in 1913 … designed something akin to a network of regional development finance institutions. … Each of the twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks was to provide short-term funding directly or indirectly (through local banks) to developing businesses that needed it. This they did by ‘discounting’ – in effect, purchasing – commercial paper from those businesses that needed it … [I]n determining what kinds of commercial paper to discount, the Federal Reserve Act both was – and ironically remains – quite explicit about this: Fed discount lending is solely for "productive," not "speculative" purposes.
1913年美联储体系的创立者……设计了一个类似区域开发金融机构的网络。……12家地区联储银行都应直接或间接（通过地方银行）向需要资金的成长中企业提供短期融资。他们通过"贴现"——实质是购买——这些企业的商业票据实现。……在决定贴现何种商业票据时，《联邦储备法》过去——且讽刺的是现在仍——非常明确：联储贴现贷款仅用于"生产性"而非"投机性"目的。
Today discounting commercial paper is big business, but the lenders are private and the borrowers are large institutions issuing commercial paper in denominations of $100,000 or more. Except for its emergency Commercial Paper Funding Facility operated from 2020 to 2021 and from 2008 to 2010, the Fed no longer engages in the commercial loan business. Meanwhile, small businesses are having trouble finding affordable financing.
如今商业票据贴现是大生意，但贷款方是私人的，借款方是发行面额10万美元以上商业票据的大机构。除2020-2021年和2008-2010年运作的紧急商业票据融资机制外，美联储不再参与商业贷款业务。与此同时，小企业难以获得可负担融资。
In a sequel to his March 2021 article, Hockett explained that the drafters of the Federal Reserve Act, notably Carter Glass and Paul Warburg, were essentially following the Real Bills Doctrine (RBD). Previously known as the "commercial loan theory of banking," it held that banks could create credit-money deposits on their balance sheets without triggering inflation if the money were issued against loans backed by commercial paper. When the borrowing companies repaid their loans from their sales receipts, the newly created money would just void out the debt and be extinguished. Their intent was that banks could sell their commercial loans at a discount at the Fed’s Discount Window, freeing up their balance sheets for more loans. Hockett wrote:
在2021年3月文章的续篇中，霍克特解释《联邦储备法》起草者——特别是卡特·格拉斯和保罗·沃伯格——实质上遵循了真实票据学说（RBD）。该学说曾称"银行业商业贷款理论"，认为若货币发行基于商业票据担保的贷款，银行可在资产负债表上创造信用货币存款而不引发通胀。当借款公司用销售收入偿还贷款时，新创造的货币将抵消债务并消失。他们的意图是银行可在联储贴现窗口折价出售商业贷款，释放资产负债表空间进行更多放贷。霍克特写道：
"The RBD in its crude formulation held that so long as the lending of endogenous [bank-created] credit-money was kept productive, not speculative, inflation and deflation would be not only less likely, but effectively impossible. And the experience of German banks during Germany’s late 19th century Hamiltonian ‘growth miracle,’ with which the German immigrant Warburg, himself a banker, was intimately familiar, appeared to verify this. So did Glass’s experience with agricultural lending in the American South. "
"粗略表述的真实票据学说认为，只要内生（银行创造的）信用货币的借贷保持生产性而非投机性，通胀和通缩不仅可能性更低，而且实际上不可能发生。德国移民沃伯格（本人是银行家）密切了解的19世纪末德国汉密尔顿式'增长奇迹'期间德国银行的经验似乎验证了这点。格拉斯在美国南部的农业贷款经历也是如此。"
Prof. Hockett suggested regionalizing the Fed, expanding it from the current 12 Federal Reserve banks to many banks. He wrote in August 2021:
霍克特教授建议美联储区域化，从当前12家联储银行扩展到多家。他在2021年8月写道：
"In time, we might even imagine a proliferation of public banks, patterned more or less after the highly successful Bank of North Dakota model, spreading across multiple states. These banks could then both afford nonprofit banking services to all, and assist the Fed Regional Banks in identifying appropriate recipients of Fed liquidity assistance. "
"假以时日，我们甚至可以设想以高度成功的北达科他州银行为模板的公立银行激增，遍布多个州。这些银行既能向所有人提供非营利银行服务，又能协助联储地区银行识别合适的流动性援助对象。"
The result, he said, will be "a Fed restored to its original purpose, a Fed responsive to varying local conditions in a sprawling continental republic, a Fed no longer over-involved with banks whose principal if not sole activities are in gambling on price movements in secondary and tertiary markets rather than investing in the primary markets that constitute our ‘real’ economy. It will mean, in short, something approaching a true people’s bank, not just a banks’ bank."
他说，结果将是"回归初衷"的美联储，响应广阔大陆共和国各地不同状况的美联储，不再过度涉足那些主要（若非全部）活动是在二三级市场押注价格波动而非投资构成我们'实体经济'的一级市场的银行的美联储。简言之，这将意味着接近真正的'人民的银行'，而不仅仅是'银行的银行'。"
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