RT:俄罗斯专家与政界人士评美国空袭："如果伊朗倒下，下一个就是我们。"
正文翻译
On June 22, the United States, acting in support of its closest ally Israel, launched airstrikes against nuclear sites in Iran. The full consequences of the operation – for Iran’s nuclear program and for the broader balance of power in the Middle East – remain uncertain. But in Moscow, reactions were swift. Russian politicians and foreign policy experts have begun drawing conclusions, offering early forecasts and strategic interpretations of what may come next.
6 月 22 日，美国为支持其最亲密盟友以色列，对伊朗核设施发动空袭。这次行动对伊朗核计划乃至中东整体力量平衡的全面影响尚不明朗。但莫斯科方面反应迅速，俄罗斯政界人士和外交政策专家已开始研判局势，对后续发展提出初步预测和战略解读。
In this special report, RT presents the view from Russia: a collection of sharp, often contrasting perspectives from analysts and officials on what Washington’s latest military move means for the region – and for the world.
在本专题报道中，RT 呈现俄罗斯视角：汇集分析人士与官员们对华盛顿最新军事行动影响的犀利见解——这些观点往往相互矛盾，涉及该地区乃至全球局势。
Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs:
《全球事务中的俄罗斯》主编费奥多尔·卢基扬诺夫：
The trap awaiting Trump is simple – but highly effective. If Iran responds by targeting American assets, the US will be pulled deeper into a military confrontation almost by default. If on the other hand, Tehran holds back or offers only a token response, Israel’s leadership – backed by its neoconservative allies in Washington – will seize the moment to pressure the White House: now is the time to finish off a weakened regime and force a convenient replacement. Until that happens, they’ll argue the job isn’t done. Whether Trump is willing – or even able – to resist that pressure remains uncertain.
等待特朗普的陷阱简单却极其有效。若伊朗通过袭击美国资产进行报复，美国几乎会不由自主地更深卷入军事对抗。反之，若德黑兰选择克制或仅作象征性回应，以色列领导层——凭借其在华盛顿的新保守主义盟友支持——将趁机向白宫施压：此刻正是彻底击垮虚弱政权、扶植傀儡替代者的良机。他们会坚称，除非达成此目标，否则行动就不算完成。特朗普是否愿意——甚至能否——顶住这种压力，目前仍是未知数。
Most likely, Iran will avoid hitting US targets directly in an effort to prevent a point-of-no-return escalation with American forces. Instead, it will likely intensify its strikes on Israel. Netanyahu, in turn, will double down on his efforts to convince Washington that regime change in Tehran is the only viable path forward – something Trump, at least for now, remains instinctively opposed to. Still, the momentum of military entanglement has a logic of its own, and it’s rarely easy to resist.
伊朗很可能会避免直接打击美国目标，以防止与美军冲突升级到不可挽回的地步。相反，德黑兰或将加强对以色列的袭击力度。而内塔尼亚胡则会加倍努力说服华盛顿——唯有推翻伊朗现政权才是可行之路，这一主张至少在目前仍遭到特朗普的本能抵触。不过军事对抗的势头自有其发展逻辑，往往难以遏制。
Tigran Meloyan, analyst at the Center for Strategic Research, Higher School of Economics:
高等经济大学战略研究中心分析师蒂格兰·梅洛扬：
If Iran does nothing, it risks appearing weak – both at home and abroad. That makes a carefully calibrated response almost inevitable: one designed not to escalate the conflict, but to preserve domestic legitimacy and project resolve. Tehran is unlikely to go much further than that. Meanwhile, by continuing to build up its military presence, Washington sends a clear deterrent message – signaling both readiness and resolve in case Tehran miscalculates.
若伊朗毫无作为，其国内外形象都将受损。因此德黑兰几乎必然要做出精心校准的回应——这种回应旨在避免冲突升级，同时维护国内统治合法性并彰显决心。但伊朗的行动不太可能超出这个限度。与此同时，美国通过持续增兵传递出明确的威慑信号，既表明已做好充分准备，也展现了若伊朗误判形势必将遭遇坚决回击的姿态。
Another option for Iran could be a dramatic symbolic move: withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Such a step would be Tehran’s way of declaring that Trump, by striking nuclear infrastructure, has effectively dismantled the global nonproliferation regime. The NPT was supposed to guarantee Iran’s security; instead, it has delivered the opposite. Still, if Iran goes down that path, it risks damaging ties with Moscow and Beijing – neither of which wants to see a challenge to the existing nuclear order.
伊朗的另一个选择可能是采取极具象征意义的行动：退出《不扩散核武器条约》（NPT）。此举将是德黑兰宣告特朗普通过打击核设施，实际上已摧毁全球防扩散体系的方式。该条约本应保障伊朗的安全，却带来了相反的结果。不过，如果伊朗走上这条路，可能会损害与莫斯科和北京的关系——这两国都不愿看到现有核秩序受到挑战。
The bigger question now is whether Iran will even consider returning to talks with Washington after this attack. Why negotiate when American promises no longer mean anything? Tehran urgently needs a mediator who can restrain Trump from further escalation – and right now, the only credible candidate is Moscow. Iran’s foreign minister, [Abbas] Araghchi, is set to meet with President Putin on June 23. It’s hard to imagine that a potential NPT withdrawal won’t be on the table. If in the past an Iranian bomb was considered an existential threat to Israel, the calculus has now reversed: for Iran, nuclear capability is quickly becoming a question of survival.
当前更大的问题是，伊朗是否还会考虑与华盛顿重启谈判。当美国的承诺已毫无信用可言时，为何还要谈判？德黑兰亟需一位能阻止特朗普进一步升级局势的调停者——而眼下唯一可信的人选只有莫斯科。伊朗外长[阿巴斯]·阿拉格希定于 6 月 23 日与普京总统会晤。很难想象《不扩散核武器条约》的潜在退出不会成为议题。如果说过去伊朗的核弹被视为对以色列的生存威胁，那么如今形势已彻底逆转：对伊朗而言，核能力正迅速演变为关乎存亡的问题。
Konstantin Kosachev, vice speaker of the Federation Council:
俄罗斯联邦委员会副主席康斯坦丁·科萨切夫：
Let’s state the obvious: Iraq, Libya – and now Iran – were bombed because they couldn’t hit back. They either didn’t have weapons of mass destruction or hadn’t yet developed them. In some cases, they never even intended to. Meanwhile, the West doesn’t touch the four countries that remain outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty: India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Why? Because unlike Iraq, Libya, and Iran, these states actually possess nuclear weapons.
让我们阐明一个显而易见的事实：伊拉克、利比亚——现在是伊朗——之所以遭到轰炸，是因为它们无力反击。这些国家要么没有大规模杀伤性武器，要么尚未研发成功。在某些情况下，它们甚至从未有过研发意图。而西方却对《不扩散核武器条约》框架外的四个国家——印度、巴基斯坦、朝鲜和以色列——秋毫无犯。为什么？因为与伊拉克、利比亚和伊朗不同，这些国家确实拥有核武器。
The message to so-called ‘threshold’ nations couldn’t be clearer: if you don’t want to be bombed by the West, arm yourself. Build deterrence. Go all the way – even to the point of developing weapons of mass destruction. That’s the grim conclusion many countries will draw. It’s a dangerous lesson, and one that flies in the face of global security and the very idea of a rules-based international order.
这对所谓"核门槛国家"传递的信息再清楚不过：若不想遭受西方轰炸，就必须武装自己。建立威慑力量。甚至不惜发展大规模杀伤性武器——这是许多国家将得出的残酷结论。这种危险的教训，公然违背全球安全理念和基于规则的国际秩序原则。
Yet it’s the West that keeps driving this logic. Iraq was invaded over a vial of powder. Libya gave up its nuclear program and was torn apart. Iran joined the NPT, worked with the IAEA, and didn’t attack Israel – unlike Israel, which just struck Iran while staying outside the NPT and refusing to cooperate with nuclear watchdogs. This is more than hypocrisy; it’s a catastrophic failure of US policy.
然而正是西方不断推动这种逻辑。伊拉克因一小瓶粉末遭入侵。利比亚放弃核计划后却四分五裂。伊朗加入《不扩散核武器条约》并与国际原子能机构合作，且未攻击以色列——反观以色列，其置身条约之外且拒绝与核监督机构合作，却刚刚袭击了伊朗。这不仅是虚伪，更是美国政策的灾难性失败。
Trump’s administration has made a colossal mistake. The pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize has taken on grotesque and dangerous proportions.
特朗普政府犯下了巨大错误。对诺贝尔和平奖的追逐已呈现出荒诞而危险的态势。
Alexander Dugin, political philosopher and geopolitical analyst
亚历山大·杜金，政治哲学家兼地缘政治分析师
Some still cling to the illusion that World War III might somehow pass us by. It won’t. We are already in the thick of it. The US has carried out a bombing strike against Iran – our ally. Nothing stopped them. And if nothing stopped them from bombing Iran, then nothing will stop them from targeting us next. At some point, they may decide that Russia, like Iran, shouldn’t be allowed to possess nuclear weapons – or find some other pretext to strike. Make no mistake: we are at war.
仍有人幻想第三次世界大战或许能与我们擦肩而过。不会的。我们已深陷其中。美国对我们的盟友伊朗实施了轰炸袭击。没有任何力量阻止他们。既然轰炸伊朗无人阻拦，那么接下来攻击我们时同样无人能阻。终有一日，他们可能认定俄罗斯和伊朗一样不该拥有核武器——或随便找个借口发动打击。务必认清：我们已处于战争状态。
The US can attack whether we advance or retreat. It’s not about strategy – it’s about will. Ukraine may not be Israel in the eyes of the West, but it plays a similar role. Israel didn’t always exist; it was created and quickly became a proxy for the collective West – though some Israelis would argue the opposite, that the West is merely a proxy for Israel. Ukraine has followed the same trajectory. No wonder Zelensky isn’t asking for Western support – he’s demanding it, including nuclear arms. The model is clear. And just like Israel bombs Gaza with impunity, Kiev bombarded Donbass for years – albeit with fewer resources and less restraint from Moscow.
无论我们进或退，美国都可能发动攻击。这无关战略——关键在于意志。在西方眼中，乌克兰或许不是以色列，却扮演着相似角色。以色列并非自古存在；它被创造出来，迅速成为西方集团的代理人——尽管部分以色列人持相反观点，认为西方才是以色列的代理人。乌克兰正沿着相同轨迹发展。难怪泽连斯基不是在请求西方支持，而是以索取姿态要求援助，甚至包括核武器。模式已然清晰。正如以色列轰炸加沙却不受惩罚，基辅多年来也持续炮击顿巴斯——只不过资源更匮乏，且莫斯科方面约束力较弱。
Our appeals to the UN and calls for peace have become meaningless. If Iran falls, Russia is next. Trump, once again, is firmly in the grip of the neocons – just as he was during his first term. The MAGA project is over. There is no “great America,” only standard-issue globalism in its place.
我们对联合国的呼吁与和平诉求已失去意义。若伊朗倒下，下一个就是俄罗斯。特朗普再次被新保守派牢牢掌控——与他首个任期时如出一辙。MAGA 计划已然终结。这里没有"伟大的美国"，取而代之的只是标准版的全球主义。
Trump thinks he can strike once – like he did with Soleimani – and then walk it back. But there’s no walking this back. He has triggered a world war he cannot control, let alone win.
特朗普以为他能像刺杀苏莱曼尼那样一击即退。但这次没有回头路可走。他挑起了一场自己无法控制、更不可能获胜的世界大战。
Now, everything hinges on Iran. If it stays on its feet and keeps fighting, it might still prevail. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Houthis have blocked traffic in the Red Sea. As new players enter the fray, the situation will evolve rapidly. China will try to stay out – for now. Until the first blow lands on them, too.
如今，一切取决于伊朗。若其能站稳脚跟持续抗争，仍有胜算。霍尔木兹海峡已被封锁，胡塞武装切断了红海航道。随着新势力加入战局，局势将急剧变化。中国目前仍试图置身事外——直到第一记重拳也落到他们身上。
But if Iran folds, it won’t just lose itself – it will expose the rest of us. That includes Russia, now facing an existential choice. The question isn’t whether to fight. Russia is already fighting. The question is how. The old methods are exhausted. That means we’ll have to find a new way to fight – and fast.
但若伊朗倒下，不仅自身沦陷，更将令我们所有人暴露无遗。这包括正面临生存抉择的俄罗斯。问题已非是否应战——俄罗斯早已身处战场，关键在于如何应战。旧有手段已然穷尽，这意味着我们必须迅速找到新的斗争方式。
Dmitry Novikov, associate professor at the Higher School of Economics
高等经济学院副教授德米特里·诺维科夫
Judging by the remarks from Hegseth and General Cain at the press conference, the US appears to be signaling the end of its direct involvement – at least for now. Officially, Iran’s nuclear program has been “eliminated.” Whether that’s actually true is beside the point. Even if Tehran manages to build a bomb six months from now, the narrative is set: the operation was targeted solely at nuclear infrastructure, with no strikes on military forces or civilians. A narrow, clean, and – according to Washington – decisively successful mission. The job is done, the curtain falls.
从赫格塞斯和凯恩将军在新闻发布会上的发言判断，美国似乎在释放结束直接介入的信号——至少目前如此。官方宣称伊朗的核计划已被"彻底摧毁"。事实是否如此并不重要。即便德黑兰半年后成功造出核弹，舆论基调已然确立：此次行动仅针对核设施，未袭击军事力量或平民。这是一次精准、干净且——用华盛顿的话说——决定性成功的任务。大幕落下，任务完成。
That doesn’t mean Washington is walking away. The US will continue to back Israel and retains the capacity to escalate if needed. But for the moment, the mood seems to be one of self-congratulatory closure.
这并不意味着华盛顿会抽身而退。美国将继续支持以色列，并保留必要时升级局势的能力。但就此刻而言，空气中弥漫着自我庆功的收场氛围。
Of course, if they really wanted to go all in, they could’ve used a tactical nuclear weapon.
当然，若真打算孤注一掷，他们本可动用战术核武器。
That would’ve offered undeniable “proof” of an Iranian bomb: if it explodes, it must have existed. And second, it would’ve allowed the administration to claim it had destroyed nuclear weapons on Iranian soil. Both assertions would’ve been technically accurate – if strategically absurd.
这将成为伊朗核武"确凿证据"：只要爆炸发生，就证明其存在。其次，美国政府可宣称已摧毁伊朗境内的核武器。两种说法在技术层面都成立——尽管战略上荒谬至极。
None of it would’ve been factually false. Just morally and politically radioactive.
所有指控在事实上都无懈可击，却在道义和政治层面贻害无穷。
Sergey Markov, political analyst
谢尔盖·马尔科夫（政治分析家）
Why did the US choose to strike Iran now, after years of restraint? The answer is simple: fear. For decades, Washington held back out of concern that any attack would trigger a wave of retaliatory terror attacks – possibly hundreds – carried out by sleeper cells tied to Iran and its allies like Hezbollah. The prevailing assumption was that Iran had quietly prepared networks across the US and Israel, ready to unleash chaos in response.
美国为何在多年克制后选择此刻打击伊朗？答案很简单：恐惧。数十年来，华盛顿始终忌惮任何攻击都可能引发由伊朗及其盟友（如真主党）潜伏小组实施的报复性恐袭浪潮——可能高达数百起。主流观点认为，伊朗早已在美国和以色列秘密布建网络，随时准备制造混乱作为回应。
But Israel’s war in Lebanon dispelled that myth. The feared sleeper cells never materialized. Once that became clear, both Israel and the US realized they could strike Iran with minimal risk of serious blowback.
但以色列在黎巴嫩的战争打破了这一神话。令人担忧的潜伏组织始终未能成形。当这一点变得明朗后，以色列和美国都意识到，他们可以打击伊朗而几乎不必担心遭受严重报复。
And so, ironically, Iran’s restraint – its perceived “peacefulness” – has paved the way to war. There’s a lesson in that for Russia: when the West senses both a willingness to negotiate and a refusal to submit, it responds not with diplomacy, but with force. That is the true face of Western imperialism.
讽刺的是，正是伊朗的克制——其表现出的"和平姿态"——为战争铺平了道路。这对俄罗斯是个警示：当西方既察觉到谈判意愿又看到拒不屈服的姿态时，其回应不是外交斡旋，而是武力压制。这就是西方帝国主义的真实面目。
Vladimir Batyuk, chief research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
俄罗斯科学院美国与加拿大研究所首席研究员 弗拉基米尔·巴秋克
Trump has crossed a red line. We’re now facing the real possibility of a major military confrontation. Iran could retaliate by striking US military installations across the Middle East, prompting Washington to respond in kind. That would mark the beginning of a drawn-out armed conflict – one the US may find increasingly difficult to contain.
特朗普已越过红线。我们现在正面临重大军事对抗的现实可能性。伊朗可能通过打击美国在中东的军事设施进行报复，从而促使华盛顿以牙还牙。这将标志着旷日持久武装冲突的开端——美国可能会发现越来越难以控制局势。
What we’re witnessing looks very much like a victory for the so-called ‘deep state’. Many had expected Trump to hold back, to avoid taking the bait. But he allowed himself to be pulled into a high-risk gamble whose consequences are impossible to predict.
我们目睹的这一幕，极像是所谓"深层政府"的胜利。许多人曾预期特朗普会保持克制，避免中计。但他却放任自己卷入这场高风险赌局，其后果根本无法预料。
And politically, this may backfire. If the standoff with Iran sends oil prices soaring, the fallout could be severe. In the United States, gasoline prices are sacrosanct. Any administration that allows them to spiral out of control faces serious domestic repercussions. For Trump, this could turn into a serious vulnerability.
从政治角度看，此举可能适得其反。若与伊朗的僵局导致油价飙升，后果将极为严重。在美国，汽油价格堪称神圣不可侵犯。任何放任油价失控的政府都将面临严重的国内政治反弹。对特朗普而言，这或将演变成重大软肋。
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council; former president of Russia
俄罗斯联邦安全会议副主席；俄罗斯前总统德米特里·梅德韦杰夫
So, what exactly did the US accomplish with its midnight strike on three targets in Iran?
那么，美国午夜对伊朗三处目标发动袭击究竟达成了什么？
1. Iran’s critical nuclear infrastructure appears to be intact – or at worst, only minimally damaged.
1. 伊朗关键核设施似乎完好无损——最坏情况下也仅受到轻微破坏。
2. Uranium enrichment will continue. And let’s just say it plainly now: so will Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.
2. 铀浓缩活动将持续进行。现在不妨直说：伊朗研制核武器的进程同样不会停止。
3. Several countries are reportedly ready to supply Iran with nuclear warheads directly.
3. 据报道，多个国家已准备好直接向伊朗提供核弹头。
4. Israel is under fire, explosions are echoing through its cities, and civilians are panicking.
4. 以色列正遭受猛烈攻击，爆炸声在城市中回荡，平民陷入恐慌。
5. The US is now entangled in yet another conflict, this one carrying the very real possibility of a ground war.
5. 美国如今又卷入一场新的冲突，这次极有可能演变为地面战争。
6. Iran’s political leadership has not only survived – it may have grown stronger.
6. 伊朗政治领导层不仅挺过了危机——其势力可能反而有所增强。
7. Even Iranians who opposed the regime are now rallying around it.
7. 就连反对伊朗政权的民众如今也团结在政府周围。
8. Donald Trump, the self-styled peace president, has just launched a new war.
8. 自诩为"和平总统"的特朗普刚刚发动了一场新战争。
9. The overwhelming majority of the international community is siding against the US and Israel.
9. 国际社会绝大多数成员都站在美国和以色列的对立面。
10. At this rate, Trump can kiss that Nobel Peace Prize goodbye – despite how absurdly compromised the award has become.
10. 照这样下去，特朗普可以彻底告别诺贝尔和平奖了——尽管该奖项早已变得荒谬可笑。
So, congratulations, Mr. President. Truly a stellar start.
所以，祝贺您，总统先生。这真是个辉煌的开局。
On June 22, the United States, acting in support of its closest ally Israel, launched airstrikes against nuclear sites in Iran. The full consequences of the operation – for Iran’s nuclear program and for the broader balance of power in the Middle East – remain uncertain. But in Moscow, reactions were swift. Russian politicians and foreign policy experts have begun drawing conclusions, offering early forecasts and strategic interpretations of what may come next.
6 月 22 日，美国为支持其最亲密盟友以色列，对伊朗核设施发动空袭。这次行动对伊朗核计划乃至中东整体力量平衡的全面影响尚不明朗。但莫斯科方面反应迅速，俄罗斯政界人士和外交政策专家已开始研判局势，对后续发展提出初步预测和战略解读。
In this special report, RT presents the view from Russia: a collection of sharp, often contrasting perspectives from analysts and officials on what Washington’s latest military move means for the region – and for the world.
在本专题报道中，RT 呈现俄罗斯视角：汇集分析人士与官员们对华盛顿最新军事行动影响的犀利见解——这些观点往往相互矛盾，涉及该地区乃至全球局势。
Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs:
《全球事务中的俄罗斯》主编费奥多尔·卢基扬诺夫：
The trap awaiting Trump is simple – but highly effective. If Iran responds by targeting American assets, the US will be pulled deeper into a military confrontation almost by default. If on the other hand, Tehran holds back or offers only a token response, Israel’s leadership – backed by its neoconservative allies in Washington – will seize the moment to pressure the White House: now is the time to finish off a weakened regime and force a convenient replacement. Until that happens, they’ll argue the job isn’t done. Whether Trump is willing – or even able – to resist that pressure remains uncertain.
等待特朗普的陷阱简单却极其有效。若伊朗通过袭击美国资产进行报复，美国几乎会不由自主地更深卷入军事对抗。反之，若德黑兰选择克制或仅作象征性回应，以色列领导层——凭借其在华盛顿的新保守主义盟友支持——将趁机向白宫施压：此刻正是彻底击垮虚弱政权、扶植傀儡替代者的良机。他们会坚称，除非达成此目标，否则行动就不算完成。特朗普是否愿意——甚至能否——顶住这种压力，目前仍是未知数。
Most likely, Iran will avoid hitting US targets directly in an effort to prevent a point-of-no-return escalation with American forces. Instead, it will likely intensify its strikes on Israel. Netanyahu, in turn, will double down on his efforts to convince Washington that regime change in Tehran is the only viable path forward – something Trump, at least for now, remains instinctively opposed to. Still, the momentum of military entanglement has a logic of its own, and it’s rarely easy to resist.
伊朗很可能会避免直接打击美国目标，以防止与美军冲突升级到不可挽回的地步。相反，德黑兰或将加强对以色列的袭击力度。而内塔尼亚胡则会加倍努力说服华盛顿——唯有推翻伊朗现政权才是可行之路，这一主张至少在目前仍遭到特朗普的本能抵触。不过军事对抗的势头自有其发展逻辑，往往难以遏制。
Tigran Meloyan, analyst at the Center for Strategic Research, Higher School of Economics:
高等经济大学战略研究中心分析师蒂格兰·梅洛扬：
If Iran does nothing, it risks appearing weak – both at home and abroad. That makes a carefully calibrated response almost inevitable: one designed not to escalate the conflict, but to preserve domestic legitimacy and project resolve. Tehran is unlikely to go much further than that. Meanwhile, by continuing to build up its military presence, Washington sends a clear deterrent message – signaling both readiness and resolve in case Tehran miscalculates.
若伊朗毫无作为，其国内外形象都将受损。因此德黑兰几乎必然要做出精心校准的回应——这种回应旨在避免冲突升级，同时维护国内统治合法性并彰显决心。但伊朗的行动不太可能超出这个限度。与此同时，美国通过持续增兵传递出明确的威慑信号，既表明已做好充分准备，也展现了若伊朗误判形势必将遭遇坚决回击的姿态。
Another option for Iran could be a dramatic symbolic move: withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Such a step would be Tehran’s way of declaring that Trump, by striking nuclear infrastructure, has effectively dismantled the global nonproliferation regime. The NPT was supposed to guarantee Iran’s security; instead, it has delivered the opposite. Still, if Iran goes down that path, it risks damaging ties with Moscow and Beijing – neither of which wants to see a challenge to the existing nuclear order.
伊朗的另一个选择可能是采取极具象征意义的行动：退出《不扩散核武器条约》（NPT）。此举将是德黑兰宣告特朗普通过打击核设施，实际上已摧毁全球防扩散体系的方式。该条约本应保障伊朗的安全，却带来了相反的结果。不过，如果伊朗走上这条路，可能会损害与莫斯科和北京的关系——这两国都不愿看到现有核秩序受到挑战。
The bigger question now is whether Iran will even consider returning to talks with Washington after this attack. Why negotiate when American promises no longer mean anything? Tehran urgently needs a mediator who can restrain Trump from further escalation – and right now, the only credible candidate is Moscow. Iran’s foreign minister, [Abbas] Araghchi, is set to meet with President Putin on June 23. It’s hard to imagine that a potential NPT withdrawal won’t be on the table. If in the past an Iranian bomb was considered an existential threat to Israel, the calculus has now reversed: for Iran, nuclear capability is quickly becoming a question of survival.
当前更大的问题是，伊朗是否还会考虑与华盛顿重启谈判。当美国的承诺已毫无信用可言时，为何还要谈判？德黑兰亟需一位能阻止特朗普进一步升级局势的调停者——而眼下唯一可信的人选只有莫斯科。伊朗外长[阿巴斯]·阿拉格希定于 6 月 23 日与普京总统会晤。很难想象《不扩散核武器条约》的潜在退出不会成为议题。如果说过去伊朗的核弹被视为对以色列的生存威胁，那么如今形势已彻底逆转：对伊朗而言，核能力正迅速演变为关乎存亡的问题。
Konstantin Kosachev, vice speaker of the Federation Council:
俄罗斯联邦委员会副主席康斯坦丁·科萨切夫：
Let’s state the obvious: Iraq, Libya – and now Iran – were bombed because they couldn’t hit back. They either didn’t have weapons of mass destruction or hadn’t yet developed them. In some cases, they never even intended to. Meanwhile, the West doesn’t touch the four countries that remain outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty: India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Why? Because unlike Iraq, Libya, and Iran, these states actually possess nuclear weapons.
让我们阐明一个显而易见的事实：伊拉克、利比亚——现在是伊朗——之所以遭到轰炸，是因为它们无力反击。这些国家要么没有大规模杀伤性武器，要么尚未研发成功。在某些情况下，它们甚至从未有过研发意图。而西方却对《不扩散核武器条约》框架外的四个国家——印度、巴基斯坦、朝鲜和以色列——秋毫无犯。为什么？因为与伊拉克、利比亚和伊朗不同，这些国家确实拥有核武器。
The message to so-called ‘threshold’ nations couldn’t be clearer: if you don’t want to be bombed by the West, arm yourself. Build deterrence. Go all the way – even to the point of developing weapons of mass destruction. That’s the grim conclusion many countries will draw. It’s a dangerous lesson, and one that flies in the face of global security and the very idea of a rules-based international order.
这对所谓"核门槛国家"传递的信息再清楚不过：若不想遭受西方轰炸，就必须武装自己。建立威慑力量。甚至不惜发展大规模杀伤性武器——这是许多国家将得出的残酷结论。这种危险的教训，公然违背全球安全理念和基于规则的国际秩序原则。
Yet it’s the West that keeps driving this logic. Iraq was invaded over a vial of powder. Libya gave up its nuclear program and was torn apart. Iran joined the NPT, worked with the IAEA, and didn’t attack Israel – unlike Israel, which just struck Iran while staying outside the NPT and refusing to cooperate with nuclear watchdogs. This is more than hypocrisy; it’s a catastrophic failure of US policy.
然而正是西方不断推动这种逻辑。伊拉克因一小瓶粉末遭入侵。利比亚放弃核计划后却四分五裂。伊朗加入《不扩散核武器条约》并与国际原子能机构合作，且未攻击以色列——反观以色列，其置身条约之外且拒绝与核监督机构合作，却刚刚袭击了伊朗。这不仅是虚伪，更是美国政策的灾难性失败。
Trump’s administration has made a colossal mistake. The pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize has taken on grotesque and dangerous proportions.
特朗普政府犯下了巨大错误。对诺贝尔和平奖的追逐已呈现出荒诞而危险的态势。
Alexander Dugin, political philosopher and geopolitical analyst
亚历山大·杜金，政治哲学家兼地缘政治分析师
Some still cling to the illusion that World War III might somehow pass us by. It won’t. We are already in the thick of it. The US has carried out a bombing strike against Iran – our ally. Nothing stopped them. And if nothing stopped them from bombing Iran, then nothing will stop them from targeting us next. At some point, they may decide that Russia, like Iran, shouldn’t be allowed to possess nuclear weapons – or find some other pretext to strike. Make no mistake: we are at war.
仍有人幻想第三次世界大战或许能与我们擦肩而过。不会的。我们已深陷其中。美国对我们的盟友伊朗实施了轰炸袭击。没有任何力量阻止他们。既然轰炸伊朗无人阻拦，那么接下来攻击我们时同样无人能阻。终有一日，他们可能认定俄罗斯和伊朗一样不该拥有核武器——或随便找个借口发动打击。务必认清：我们已处于战争状态。
The US can attack whether we advance or retreat. It’s not about strategy – it’s about will. Ukraine may not be Israel in the eyes of the West, but it plays a similar role. Israel didn’t always exist; it was created and quickly became a proxy for the collective West – though some Israelis would argue the opposite, that the West is merely a proxy for Israel. Ukraine has followed the same trajectory. No wonder Zelensky isn’t asking for Western support – he’s demanding it, including nuclear arms. The model is clear. And just like Israel bombs Gaza with impunity, Kiev bombarded Donbass for years – albeit with fewer resources and less restraint from Moscow.
无论我们进或退，美国都可能发动攻击。这无关战略——关键在于意志。在西方眼中，乌克兰或许不是以色列，却扮演着相似角色。以色列并非自古存在；它被创造出来，迅速成为西方集团的代理人——尽管部分以色列人持相反观点，认为西方才是以色列的代理人。乌克兰正沿着相同轨迹发展。难怪泽连斯基不是在请求西方支持，而是以索取姿态要求援助，甚至包括核武器。模式已然清晰。正如以色列轰炸加沙却不受惩罚，基辅多年来也持续炮击顿巴斯——只不过资源更匮乏，且莫斯科方面约束力较弱。
Our appeals to the UN and calls for peace have become meaningless. If Iran falls, Russia is next. Trump, once again, is firmly in the grip of the neocons – just as he was during his first term. The MAGA project is over. There is no “great America,” only standard-issue globalism in its place.
我们对联合国的呼吁与和平诉求已失去意义。若伊朗倒下，下一个就是俄罗斯。特朗普再次被新保守派牢牢掌控——与他首个任期时如出一辙。MAGA 计划已然终结。这里没有"伟大的美国"，取而代之的只是标准版的全球主义。
Trump thinks he can strike once – like he did with Soleimani – and then walk it back. But there’s no walking this back. He has triggered a world war he cannot control, let alone win.
特朗普以为他能像刺杀苏莱曼尼那样一击即退。但这次没有回头路可走。他挑起了一场自己无法控制、更不可能获胜的世界大战。
Now, everything hinges on Iran. If it stays on its feet and keeps fighting, it might still prevail. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Houthis have blocked traffic in the Red Sea. As new players enter the fray, the situation will evolve rapidly. China will try to stay out – for now. Until the first blow lands on them, too.
如今，一切取决于伊朗。若其能站稳脚跟持续抗争，仍有胜算。霍尔木兹海峡已被封锁，胡塞武装切断了红海航道。随着新势力加入战局，局势将急剧变化。中国目前仍试图置身事外——直到第一记重拳也落到他们身上。
But if Iran folds, it won’t just lose itself – it will expose the rest of us. That includes Russia, now facing an existential choice. The question isn’t whether to fight. Russia is already fighting. The question is how. The old methods are exhausted. That means we’ll have to find a new way to fight – and fast.
但若伊朗倒下，不仅自身沦陷，更将令我们所有人暴露无遗。这包括正面临生存抉择的俄罗斯。问题已非是否应战——俄罗斯早已身处战场，关键在于如何应战。旧有手段已然穷尽，这意味着我们必须迅速找到新的斗争方式。
Dmitry Novikov, associate professor at the Higher School of Economics
高等经济学院副教授德米特里·诺维科夫
Judging by the remarks from Hegseth and General Cain at the press conference, the US appears to be signaling the end of its direct involvement – at least for now. Officially, Iran’s nuclear program has been “eliminated.” Whether that’s actually true is beside the point. Even if Tehran manages to build a bomb six months from now, the narrative is set: the operation was targeted solely at nuclear infrastructure, with no strikes on military forces or civilians. A narrow, clean, and – according to Washington – decisively successful mission. The job is done, the curtain falls.
从赫格塞斯和凯恩将军在新闻发布会上的发言判断，美国似乎在释放结束直接介入的信号——至少目前如此。官方宣称伊朗的核计划已被"彻底摧毁"。事实是否如此并不重要。即便德黑兰半年后成功造出核弹，舆论基调已然确立：此次行动仅针对核设施，未袭击军事力量或平民。这是一次精准、干净且——用华盛顿的话说——决定性成功的任务。大幕落下，任务完成。
That doesn’t mean Washington is walking away. The US will continue to back Israel and retains the capacity to escalate if needed. But for the moment, the mood seems to be one of self-congratulatory closure.
这并不意味着华盛顿会抽身而退。美国将继续支持以色列，并保留必要时升级局势的能力。但就此刻而言，空气中弥漫着自我庆功的收场氛围。
Of course, if they really wanted to go all in, they could’ve used a tactical nuclear weapon.
当然，若真打算孤注一掷，他们本可动用战术核武器。
That would’ve offered undeniable “proof” of an Iranian bomb: if it explodes, it must have existed. And second, it would’ve allowed the administration to claim it had destroyed nuclear weapons on Iranian soil. Both assertions would’ve been technically accurate – if strategically absurd.
这将成为伊朗核武"确凿证据"：只要爆炸发生，就证明其存在。其次，美国政府可宣称已摧毁伊朗境内的核武器。两种说法在技术层面都成立——尽管战略上荒谬至极。
None of it would’ve been factually false. Just morally and politically radioactive.
所有指控在事实上都无懈可击，却在道义和政治层面贻害无穷。
Sergey Markov, political analyst
谢尔盖·马尔科夫（政治分析家）
Why did the US choose to strike Iran now, after years of restraint? The answer is simple: fear. For decades, Washington held back out of concern that any attack would trigger a wave of retaliatory terror attacks – possibly hundreds – carried out by sleeper cells tied to Iran and its allies like Hezbollah. The prevailing assumption was that Iran had quietly prepared networks across the US and Israel, ready to unleash chaos in response.
美国为何在多年克制后选择此刻打击伊朗？答案很简单：恐惧。数十年来，华盛顿始终忌惮任何攻击都可能引发由伊朗及其盟友（如真主党）潜伏小组实施的报复性恐袭浪潮——可能高达数百起。主流观点认为，伊朗早已在美国和以色列秘密布建网络，随时准备制造混乱作为回应。
But Israel’s war in Lebanon dispelled that myth. The feared sleeper cells never materialized. Once that became clear, both Israel and the US realized they could strike Iran with minimal risk of serious blowback.
但以色列在黎巴嫩的战争打破了这一神话。令人担忧的潜伏组织始终未能成形。当这一点变得明朗后，以色列和美国都意识到，他们可以打击伊朗而几乎不必担心遭受严重报复。
And so, ironically, Iran’s restraint – its perceived “peacefulness” – has paved the way to war. There’s a lesson in that for Russia: when the West senses both a willingness to negotiate and a refusal to submit, it responds not with diplomacy, but with force. That is the true face of Western imperialism.
讽刺的是，正是伊朗的克制——其表现出的"和平姿态"——为战争铺平了道路。这对俄罗斯是个警示：当西方既察觉到谈判意愿又看到拒不屈服的姿态时，其回应不是外交斡旋，而是武力压制。这就是西方帝国主义的真实面目。
Vladimir Batyuk, chief research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
俄罗斯科学院美国与加拿大研究所首席研究员 弗拉基米尔·巴秋克
Trump has crossed a red line. We’re now facing the real possibility of a major military confrontation. Iran could retaliate by striking US military installations across the Middle East, prompting Washington to respond in kind. That would mark the beginning of a drawn-out armed conflict – one the US may find increasingly difficult to contain.
特朗普已越过红线。我们现在正面临重大军事对抗的现实可能性。伊朗可能通过打击美国在中东的军事设施进行报复，从而促使华盛顿以牙还牙。这将标志着旷日持久武装冲突的开端——美国可能会发现越来越难以控制局势。
What we’re witnessing looks very much like a victory for the so-called ‘deep state’. Many had expected Trump to hold back, to avoid taking the bait. But he allowed himself to be pulled into a high-risk gamble whose consequences are impossible to predict.
我们目睹的这一幕，极像是所谓"深层政府"的胜利。许多人曾预期特朗普会保持克制，避免中计。但他却放任自己卷入这场高风险赌局，其后果根本无法预料。
And politically, this may backfire. If the standoff with Iran sends oil prices soaring, the fallout could be severe. In the United States, gasoline prices are sacrosanct. Any administration that allows them to spiral out of control faces serious domestic repercussions. For Trump, this could turn into a serious vulnerability.
从政治角度看，此举可能适得其反。若与伊朗的僵局导致油价飙升，后果将极为严重。在美国，汽油价格堪称神圣不可侵犯。任何放任油价失控的政府都将面临严重的国内政治反弹。对特朗普而言，这或将演变成重大软肋。
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council; former president of Russia
俄罗斯联邦安全会议副主席；俄罗斯前总统德米特里·梅德韦杰夫
So, what exactly did the US accomplish with its midnight strike on three targets in Iran?
那么，美国午夜对伊朗三处目标发动袭击究竟达成了什么？
1. Iran’s critical nuclear infrastructure appears to be intact – or at worst, only minimally damaged.
1. 伊朗关键核设施似乎完好无损——最坏情况下也仅受到轻微破坏。
2. Uranium enrichment will continue. And let’s just say it plainly now: so will Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.
2. 铀浓缩活动将持续进行。现在不妨直说：伊朗研制核武器的进程同样不会停止。
3. Several countries are reportedly ready to supply Iran with nuclear warheads directly.
3. 据报道，多个国家已准备好直接向伊朗提供核弹头。
4. Israel is under fire, explosions are echoing through its cities, and civilians are panicking.
4. 以色列正遭受猛烈攻击，爆炸声在城市中回荡，平民陷入恐慌。
5. The US is now entangled in yet another conflict, this one carrying the very real possibility of a ground war.
5. 美国如今又卷入一场新的冲突，这次极有可能演变为地面战争。
6. Iran’s political leadership has not only survived – it may have grown stronger.
6. 伊朗政治领导层不仅挺过了危机——其势力可能反而有所增强。
7. Even Iranians who opposed the regime are now rallying around it.
7. 就连反对伊朗政权的民众如今也团结在政府周围。
8. Donald Trump, the self-styled peace president, has just launched a new war.
8. 自诩为"和平总统"的特朗普刚刚发动了一场新战争。
9. The overwhelming majority of the international community is siding against the US and Israel.
9. 国际社会绝大多数成员都站在美国和以色列的对立面。
10. At this rate, Trump can kiss that Nobel Peace Prize goodbye – despite how absurdly compromised the award has become.
10. 照这样下去，特朗普可以彻底告别诺贝尔和平奖了——尽管该奖项早已变得荒谬可笑。
So, congratulations, Mr. President. Truly a stellar start.
所以，祝贺您，总统先生。这真是个辉煌的开局。
评论翻译
On June 22, the United States, acting in support of its closest ally Israel, launched airstrikes against nuclear sites in Iran. The full consequences of the operation – for Iran’s nuclear program and for the broader balance of power in the Middle East – remain uncertain. But in Moscow, reactions were swift. Russian politicians and foreign policy experts have begun drawing conclusions, offering early forecasts and strategic interpretations of what may come next.
6 月 22 日，美国为支持其最亲密盟友以色列，对伊朗核设施发动空袭。这次行动对伊朗核计划乃至中东整体力量平衡的全面影响尚不明朗。但莫斯科方面反应迅速，俄罗斯政界人士和外交政策专家已开始研判局势，对后续发展提出初步预测和战略解读。
In this special report, RT presents the view from Russia: a collection of sharp, often contrasting perspectives from analysts and officials on what Washington’s latest military move means for the region – and for the world.
在本专题报道中，RT 呈现俄罗斯视角：汇集分析人士与官员们对华盛顿最新军事行动影响的犀利见解——这些观点往往相互矛盾，涉及该地区乃至全球局势。
Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs:
《全球事务中的俄罗斯》主编费奥多尔·卢基扬诺夫：
The trap awaiting Trump is simple – but highly effective. If Iran responds by targeting American assets, the US will be pulled deeper into a military confrontation almost by default. If on the other hand, Tehran holds back or offers only a token response, Israel’s leadership – backed by its neoconservative allies in Washington – will seize the moment to pressure the White House: now is the time to finish off a weakened regime and force a convenient replacement. Until that happens, they’ll argue the job isn’t done. Whether Trump is willing – or even able – to resist that pressure remains uncertain.
等待特朗普的陷阱简单却极其有效。若伊朗通过袭击美国资产进行报复，美国几乎会不由自主地更深卷入军事对抗。反之，若德黑兰选择克制或仅作象征性回应，以色列领导层——凭借其在华盛顿的新保守主义盟友支持——将趁机向白宫施压：此刻正是彻底击垮虚弱政权、扶植傀儡替代者的良机。他们会坚称，除非达成此目标，否则行动就不算完成。特朗普是否愿意——甚至能否——顶住这种压力，目前仍是未知数。
Most likely, Iran will avoid hitting US targets directly in an effort to prevent a point-of-no-return escalation with American forces. Instead, it will likely intensify its strikes on Israel. Netanyahu, in turn, will double down on his efforts to convince Washington that regime change in Tehran is the only viable path forward – something Trump, at least for now, remains instinctively opposed to. Still, the momentum of military entanglement has a logic of its own, and it’s rarely easy to resist.
伊朗很可能会避免直接打击美国目标，以防止与美军冲突升级到不可挽回的地步。相反，德黑兰或将加强对以色列的袭击力度。而内塔尼亚胡则会加倍努力说服华盛顿——唯有推翻伊朗现政权才是可行之路，这一主张至少在目前仍遭到特朗普的本能抵触。不过军事对抗的势头自有其发展逻辑，往往难以遏制。
Tigran Meloyan, analyst at the Center for Strategic Research, Higher School of Economics:
高等经济大学战略研究中心分析师蒂格兰·梅洛扬：
If Iran does nothing, it risks appearing weak – both at home and abroad. That makes a carefully calibrated response almost inevitable: one designed not to escalate the conflict, but to preserve domestic legitimacy and project resolve. Tehran is unlikely to go much further than that. Meanwhile, by continuing to build up its military presence, Washington sends a clear deterrent message – signaling both readiness and resolve in case Tehran miscalculates.
若伊朗毫无作为，其国内外形象都将受损。因此德黑兰几乎必然要做出精心校准的回应——这种回应旨在避免冲突升级，同时维护国内统治合法性并彰显决心。但伊朗的行动不太可能超出这个限度。与此同时，美国通过持续增兵传递出明确的威慑信号，既表明已做好充分准备，也展现了若伊朗误判形势必将遭遇坚决回击的姿态。
Another option for Iran could be a dramatic symbolic move: withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Such a step would be Tehran’s way of declaring that Trump, by striking nuclear infrastructure, has effectively dismantled the global nonproliferation regime. The NPT was supposed to guarantee Iran’s security; instead, it has delivered the opposite. Still, if Iran goes down that path, it risks damaging ties with Moscow and Beijing – neither of which wants to see a challenge to the existing nuclear order.
伊朗的另一个选择可能是采取极具象征意义的行动：退出《不扩散核武器条约》（NPT）。此举将是德黑兰宣告特朗普通过打击核设施，实际上已摧毁全球防扩散体系的方式。该条约本应保障伊朗的安全，却带来了相反的结果。不过，如果伊朗走上这条路，可能会损害与莫斯科和北京的关系——这两国都不愿看到现有核秩序受到挑战。
The bigger question now is whether Iran will even consider returning to talks with Washington after this attack. Why negotiate when American promises no longer mean anything? Tehran urgently needs a mediator who can restrain Trump from further escalation – and right now, the only credible candidate is Moscow. Iran’s foreign minister, [Abbas] Araghchi, is set to meet with President Putin on June 23. It’s hard to imagine that a potential NPT withdrawal won’t be on the table. If in the past an Iranian bomb was considered an existential threat to Israel, the calculus has now reversed: for Iran, nuclear capability is quickly becoming a question of survival.
当前更大的问题是，伊朗是否还会考虑与华盛顿重启谈判。当美国的承诺已毫无信用可言时，为何还要谈判？德黑兰亟需一位能阻止特朗普进一步升级局势的调停者——而眼下唯一可信的人选只有莫斯科。伊朗外长[阿巴斯]·阿拉格希定于 6 月 23 日与普京总统会晤。很难想象《不扩散核武器条约》的潜在退出不会成为议题。如果说过去伊朗的核弹被视为对以色列的生存威胁，那么如今形势已彻底逆转：对伊朗而言，核能力正迅速演变为关乎存亡的问题。
Konstantin Kosachev, vice speaker of the Federation Council:
俄罗斯联邦委员会副主席康斯坦丁·科萨切夫：
Let’s state the obvious: Iraq, Libya – and now Iran – were bombed because they couldn’t hit back. They either didn’t have weapons of mass destruction or hadn’t yet developed them. In some cases, they never even intended to. Meanwhile, the West doesn’t touch the four countries that remain outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty: India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Why? Because unlike Iraq, Libya, and Iran, these states actually possess nuclear weapons.
让我们阐明一个显而易见的事实：伊拉克、利比亚——现在是伊朗——之所以遭到轰炸，是因为它们无力反击。这些国家要么没有大规模杀伤性武器，要么尚未研发成功。在某些情况下，它们甚至从未有过研发意图。而西方却对《不扩散核武器条约》框架外的四个国家——印度、巴基斯坦、朝鲜和以色列——秋毫无犯。为什么？因为与伊拉克、利比亚和伊朗不同，这些国家确实拥有核武器。
The message to so-called ‘threshold’ nations couldn’t be clearer: if you don’t want to be bombed by the West, arm yourself. Build deterrence. Go all the way – even to the point of developing weapons of mass destruction. That’s the grim conclusion many countries will draw. It’s a dangerous lesson, and one that flies in the face of global security and the very idea of a rules-based international order.
这对所谓"核门槛国家"传递的信息再清楚不过：若不想遭受西方轰炸，就必须武装自己。建立威慑力量。甚至不惜发展大规模杀伤性武器——这是许多国家将得出的残酷结论。这种危险的教训，公然违背全球安全理念和基于规则的国际秩序原则。
Yet it’s the West that keeps driving this logic. Iraq was invaded over a vial of powder. Libya gave up its nuclear program and was torn apart. Iran joined the NPT, worked with the IAEA, and didn’t attack Israel – unlike Israel, which just struck Iran while staying outside the NPT and refusing to cooperate with nuclear watchdogs. This is more than hypocrisy; it’s a catastrophic failure of US policy.
然而正是西方不断推动这种逻辑。伊拉克因一小瓶粉末遭入侵。利比亚放弃核计划后却四分五裂。伊朗加入《不扩散核武器条约》并与国际原子能机构合作，且未攻击以色列——反观以色列，其置身条约之外且拒绝与核监督机构合作，却刚刚袭击了伊朗。这不仅是虚伪，更是美国政策的灾难性失败。
Trump’s administration has made a colossal mistake. The pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize has taken on grotesque and dangerous proportions.
特朗普政府犯下了巨大错误。对诺贝尔和平奖的追逐已呈现出荒诞而危险的态势。
Alexander Dugin, political philosopher and geopolitical analyst
亚历山大·杜金，政治哲学家兼地缘政治分析师
Some still cling to the illusion that World War III might somehow pass us by. It won’t. We are already in the thick of it. The US has carried out a bombing strike against Iran – our ally. Nothing stopped them. And if nothing stopped them from bombing Iran, then nothing will stop them from targeting us next. At some point, they may decide that Russia, like Iran, shouldn’t be allowed to possess nuclear weapons – or find some other pretext to strike. Make no mistake: we are at war.
仍有人幻想第三次世界大战或许能与我们擦肩而过。不会的。我们已深陷其中。美国对我们的盟友伊朗实施了轰炸袭击。没有任何力量阻止他们。既然轰炸伊朗无人阻拦，那么接下来攻击我们时同样无人能阻。终有一日，他们可能认定俄罗斯和伊朗一样不该拥有核武器——或随便找个借口发动打击。务必认清：我们已处于战争状态。
The US can attack whether we advance or retreat. It’s not about strategy – it’s about will. Ukraine may not be Israel in the eyes of the West, but it plays a similar role. Israel didn’t always exist; it was created and quickly became a proxy for the collective West – though some Israelis would argue the opposite, that the West is merely a proxy for Israel. Ukraine has followed the same trajectory. No wonder Zelensky isn’t asking for Western support – he’s demanding it, including nuclear arms. The model is clear. And just like Israel bombs Gaza with impunity, Kiev bombarded Donbass for years – albeit with fewer resources and less restraint from Moscow.
无论我们进或退，美国都可能发动攻击。这无关战略——关键在于意志。在西方眼中，乌克兰或许不是以色列，却扮演着相似角色。以色列并非自古存在；它被创造出来，迅速成为西方集团的代理人——尽管部分以色列人持相反观点，认为西方才是以色列的代理人。乌克兰正沿着相同轨迹发展。难怪泽连斯基不是在请求西方支持，而是以索取姿态要求援助，甚至包括核武器。模式已然清晰。正如以色列轰炸加沙却不受惩罚，基辅多年来也持续炮击顿巴斯——只不过资源更匮乏，且莫斯科方面约束力较弱。
Our appeals to the UN and calls for peace have become meaningless. If Iran falls, Russia is next. Trump, once again, is firmly in the grip of the neocons – just as he was during his first term. The MAGA project is over. There is no “great America,” only standard-issue globalism in its place.
我们对联合国的呼吁与和平诉求已失去意义。若伊朗倒下，下一个就是俄罗斯。特朗普再次被新保守派牢牢掌控——与他首个任期时如出一辙。MAGA 计划已然终结。这里没有"伟大的美国"，取而代之的只是标准版的全球主义。
Trump thinks he can strike once – like he did with Soleimani – and then walk it back. But there’s no walking this back. He has triggered a world war he cannot control, let alone win.
特朗普以为他能像刺杀苏莱曼尼那样一击即退。但这次没有回头路可走。他挑起了一场自己无法控制、更不可能获胜的世界大战。
Now, everything hinges on Iran. If it stays on its feet and keeps fighting, it might still prevail. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Houthis have blocked traffic in the Red Sea. As new players enter the fray, the situation will evolve rapidly. China will try to stay out – for now. Until the first blow lands on them, too.
如今，一切取决于伊朗。若其能站稳脚跟持续抗争，仍有胜算。霍尔木兹海峡已被封锁，胡塞武装切断了红海航道。随着新势力加入战局，局势将急剧变化。中国目前仍试图置身事外——直到第一记重拳也落到他们身上。
But if Iran folds, it won’t just lose itself – it will expose the rest of us. That includes Russia, now facing an existential choice. The question isn’t whether to fight. Russia is already fighting. The question is how. The old methods are exhausted. That means we’ll have to find a new way to fight – and fast.
但若伊朗倒下，不仅自身沦陷，更将令我们所有人暴露无遗。这包括正面临生存抉择的俄罗斯。问题已非是否应战——俄罗斯早已身处战场，关键在于如何应战。旧有手段已然穷尽，这意味着我们必须迅速找到新的斗争方式。
Dmitry Novikov, associate professor at the Higher School of Economics
高等经济学院副教授德米特里·诺维科夫
Judging by the remarks from Hegseth and General Cain at the press conference, the US appears to be signaling the end of its direct involvement – at least for now. Officially, Iran’s nuclear program has been “eliminated.” Whether that’s actually true is beside the point. Even if Tehran manages to build a bomb six months from now, the narrative is set: the operation was targeted solely at nuclear infrastructure, with no strikes on military forces or civilians. A narrow, clean, and – according to Washington – decisively successful mission. The job is done, the curtain falls.
从赫格塞斯和凯恩将军在新闻发布会上的发言判断，美国似乎在释放结束直接介入的信号——至少目前如此。官方宣称伊朗的核计划已被"彻底摧毁"。事实是否如此并不重要。即便德黑兰半年后成功造出核弹，舆论基调已然确立：此次行动仅针对核设施，未袭击军事力量或平民。这是一次精准、干净且——用华盛顿的话说——决定性成功的任务。大幕落下，任务完成。
That doesn’t mean Washington is walking away. The US will continue to back Israel and retains the capacity to escalate if needed. But for the moment, the mood seems to be one of self-congratulatory closure.
这并不意味着华盛顿会抽身而退。美国将继续支持以色列，并保留必要时升级局势的能力。但就此刻而言，空气中弥漫着自我庆功的收场氛围。
Of course, if they really wanted to go all in, they could’ve used a tactical nuclear weapon.
当然，若真打算孤注一掷，他们本可动用战术核武器。
That would’ve offered undeniable “proof” of an Iranian bomb: if it explodes, it must have existed. And second, it would’ve allowed the administration to claim it had destroyed nuclear weapons on Iranian soil. Both assertions would’ve been technically accurate – if strategically absurd.
这将成为伊朗核武"确凿证据"：只要爆炸发生，就证明其存在。其次，美国政府可宣称已摧毁伊朗境内的核武器。两种说法在技术层面都成立——尽管战略上荒谬至极。
None of it would’ve been factually false. Just morally and politically radioactive.
所有指控在事实上都无懈可击，却在道义和政治层面贻害无穷。
Sergey Markov, political analyst
谢尔盖·马尔科夫（政治分析家）
Why did the US choose to strike Iran now, after years of restraint? The answer is simple: fear. For decades, Washington held back out of concern that any attack would trigger a wave of retaliatory terror attacks – possibly hundreds – carried out by sleeper cells tied to Iran and its allies like Hezbollah. The prevailing assumption was that Iran had quietly prepared networks across the US and Israel, ready to unleash chaos in response.
美国为何在多年克制后选择此刻打击伊朗？答案很简单：恐惧。数十年来，华盛顿始终忌惮任何攻击都可能引发由伊朗及其盟友（如真主党）潜伏小组实施的报复性恐袭浪潮——可能高达数百起。主流观点认为，伊朗早已在美国和以色列秘密布建网络，随时准备制造混乱作为回应。
But Israel’s war in Lebanon dispelled that myth. The feared sleeper cells never materialized. Once that became clear, both Israel and the US realized they could strike Iran with minimal risk of serious blowback.
但以色列在黎巴嫩的战争打破了这一神话。令人担忧的潜伏组织始终未能成形。当这一点变得明朗后，以色列和美国都意识到，他们可以打击伊朗而几乎不必担心遭受严重报复。
And so, ironically, Iran’s restraint – its perceived “peacefulness” – has paved the way to war. There’s a lesson in that for Russia: when the West senses both a willingness to negotiate and a refusal to submit, it responds not with diplomacy, but with force. That is the true face of Western imperialism.
讽刺的是，正是伊朗的克制——其表现出的"和平姿态"——为战争铺平了道路。这对俄罗斯是个警示：当西方既察觉到谈判意愿又看到拒不屈服的姿态时，其回应不是外交斡旋，而是武力压制。这就是西方帝国主义的真实面目。
Vladimir Batyuk, chief research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
俄罗斯科学院美国与加拿大研究所首席研究员 弗拉基米尔·巴秋克
Trump has crossed a red line. We’re now facing the real possibility of a major military confrontation. Iran could retaliate by striking US military installations across the Middle East, prompting Washington to respond in kind. That would mark the beginning of a drawn-out armed conflict – one the US may find increasingly difficult to contain.
特朗普已越过红线。我们现在正面临重大军事对抗的现实可能性。伊朗可能通过打击美国在中东的军事设施进行报复，从而促使华盛顿以牙还牙。这将标志着旷日持久武装冲突的开端——美国可能会发现越来越难以控制局势。
What we’re witnessing looks very much like a victory for the so-called ‘deep state’. Many had expected Trump to hold back, to avoid taking the bait. But he allowed himself to be pulled into a high-risk gamble whose consequences are impossible to predict.
我们目睹的这一幕，极像是所谓"深层政府"的胜利。许多人曾预期特朗普会保持克制，避免中计。但他却放任自己卷入这场高风险赌局，其后果根本无法预料。
And politically, this may backfire. If the standoff with Iran sends oil prices soaring, the fallout could be severe. In the United States, gasoline prices are sacrosanct. Any administration that allows them to spiral out of control faces serious domestic repercussions. For Trump, this could turn into a serious vulnerability.
从政治角度看，此举可能适得其反。若与伊朗的僵局导致油价飙升，后果将极为严重。在美国，汽油价格堪称神圣不可侵犯。任何放任油价失控的政府都将面临严重的国内政治反弹。对特朗普而言，这或将演变成重大软肋。
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council; former president of Russia
俄罗斯联邦安全会议副主席；俄罗斯前总统德米特里·梅德韦杰夫
So, what exactly did the US accomplish with its midnight strike on three targets in Iran?
那么，美国午夜对伊朗三处目标发动袭击究竟达成了什么？
1. Iran’s critical nuclear infrastructure appears to be intact – or at worst, only minimally damaged.
1. 伊朗关键核设施似乎完好无损——最坏情况下也仅受到轻微破坏。
2. Uranium enrichment will continue. And let’s just say it plainly now: so will Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.
2. 铀浓缩活动将持续进行。现在不妨直说：伊朗研制核武器的进程同样不会停止。
3. Several countries are reportedly ready to supply Iran with nuclear warheads directly.
3. 据报道，多个国家已准备好直接向伊朗提供核弹头。
4. Israel is under fire, explosions are echoing through its cities, and civilians are panicking.
4. 以色列正遭受猛烈攻击，爆炸声在城市中回荡，平民陷入恐慌。
5. The US is now entangled in yet another conflict, this one carrying the very real possibility of a ground war.
5. 美国如今又卷入一场新的冲突，这次极有可能演变为地面战争。
6. Iran’s political leadership has not only survived – it may have grown stronger.
6. 伊朗政治领导层不仅挺过了危机——其势力可能反而有所增强。
7. Even Iranians who opposed the regime are now rallying around it.
7. 就连反对伊朗政权的民众如今也团结在政府周围。
8. Donald Trump, the self-styled peace president, has just launched a new war.
8. 自诩为"和平总统"的特朗普刚刚发动了一场新战争。
9. The overwhelming majority of the international community is siding against the US and Israel.
9. 国际社会绝大多数成员都站在美国和以色列的对立面。
10. At this rate, Trump can kiss that Nobel Peace Prize goodbye – despite how absurdly compromised the award has become.
10. 照这样下去，特朗普可以彻底告别诺贝尔和平奖了——尽管该奖项早已变得荒谬可笑。
So, congratulations, Mr. President. Truly a stellar start.
所以，祝贺您，总统先生。这真是个辉煌的开局。
On June 22, the United States, acting in support of its closest ally Israel, launched airstrikes against nuclear sites in Iran. The full consequences of the operation – for Iran’s nuclear program and for the broader balance of power in the Middle East – remain uncertain. But in Moscow, reactions were swift. Russian politicians and foreign policy experts have begun drawing conclusions, offering early forecasts and strategic interpretations of what may come next.
6 月 22 日，美国为支持其最亲密盟友以色列，对伊朗核设施发动空袭。这次行动对伊朗核计划乃至中东整体力量平衡的全面影响尚不明朗。但莫斯科方面反应迅速，俄罗斯政界人士和外交政策专家已开始研判局势，对后续发展提出初步预测和战略解读。
In this special report, RT presents the view from Russia: a collection of sharp, often contrasting perspectives from analysts and officials on what Washington’s latest military move means for the region – and for the world.
在本专题报道中，RT 呈现俄罗斯视角：汇集分析人士与官员们对华盛顿最新军事行动影响的犀利见解——这些观点往往相互矛盾，涉及该地区乃至全球局势。
Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs:
《全球事务中的俄罗斯》主编费奥多尔·卢基扬诺夫：
The trap awaiting Trump is simple – but highly effective. If Iran responds by targeting American assets, the US will be pulled deeper into a military confrontation almost by default. If on the other hand, Tehran holds back or offers only a token response, Israel’s leadership – backed by its neoconservative allies in Washington – will seize the moment to pressure the White House: now is the time to finish off a weakened regime and force a convenient replacement. Until that happens, they’ll argue the job isn’t done. Whether Trump is willing – or even able – to resist that pressure remains uncertain.
等待特朗普的陷阱简单却极其有效。若伊朗通过袭击美国资产进行报复，美国几乎会不由自主地更深卷入军事对抗。反之，若德黑兰选择克制或仅作象征性回应，以色列领导层——凭借其在华盛顿的新保守主义盟友支持——将趁机向白宫施压：此刻正是彻底击垮虚弱政权、扶植傀儡替代者的良机。他们会坚称，除非达成此目标，否则行动就不算完成。特朗普是否愿意——甚至能否——顶住这种压力，目前仍是未知数。
Most likely, Iran will avoid hitting US targets directly in an effort to prevent a point-of-no-return escalation with American forces. Instead, it will likely intensify its strikes on Israel. Netanyahu, in turn, will double down on his efforts to convince Washington that regime change in Tehran is the only viable path forward – something Trump, at least for now, remains instinctively opposed to. Still, the momentum of military entanglement has a logic of its own, and it’s rarely easy to resist.
伊朗很可能会避免直接打击美国目标，以防止与美军冲突升级到不可挽回的地步。相反，德黑兰或将加强对以色列的袭击力度。而内塔尼亚胡则会加倍努力说服华盛顿——唯有推翻伊朗现政权才是可行之路，这一主张至少在目前仍遭到特朗普的本能抵触。不过军事对抗的势头自有其发展逻辑，往往难以遏制。
Tigran Meloyan, analyst at the Center for Strategic Research, Higher School of Economics:
高等经济大学战略研究中心分析师蒂格兰·梅洛扬：
If Iran does nothing, it risks appearing weak – both at home and abroad. That makes a carefully calibrated response almost inevitable: one designed not to escalate the conflict, but to preserve domestic legitimacy and project resolve. Tehran is unlikely to go much further than that. Meanwhile, by continuing to build up its military presence, Washington sends a clear deterrent message – signaling both readiness and resolve in case Tehran miscalculates.
若伊朗毫无作为，其国内外形象都将受损。因此德黑兰几乎必然要做出精心校准的回应——这种回应旨在避免冲突升级，同时维护国内统治合法性并彰显决心。但伊朗的行动不太可能超出这个限度。与此同时，美国通过持续增兵传递出明确的威慑信号，既表明已做好充分准备，也展现了若伊朗误判形势必将遭遇坚决回击的姿态。
Another option for Iran could be a dramatic symbolic move: withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Such a step would be Tehran’s way of declaring that Trump, by striking nuclear infrastructure, has effectively dismantled the global nonproliferation regime. The NPT was supposed to guarantee Iran’s security; instead, it has delivered the opposite. Still, if Iran goes down that path, it risks damaging ties with Moscow and Beijing – neither of which wants to see a challenge to the existing nuclear order.
伊朗的另一个选择可能是采取极具象征意义的行动：退出《不扩散核武器条约》（NPT）。此举将是德黑兰宣告特朗普通过打击核设施，实际上已摧毁全球防扩散体系的方式。该条约本应保障伊朗的安全，却带来了相反的结果。不过，如果伊朗走上这条路，可能会损害与莫斯科和北京的关系——这两国都不愿看到现有核秩序受到挑战。
The bigger question now is whether Iran will even consider returning to talks with Washington after this attack. Why negotiate when American promises no longer mean anything? Tehran urgently needs a mediator who can restrain Trump from further escalation – and right now, the only credible candidate is Moscow. Iran’s foreign minister, [Abbas] Araghchi, is set to meet with President Putin on June 23. It’s hard to imagine that a potential NPT withdrawal won’t be on the table. If in the past an Iranian bomb was considered an existential threat to Israel, the calculus has now reversed: for Iran, nuclear capability is quickly becoming a question of survival.
当前更大的问题是，伊朗是否还会考虑与华盛顿重启谈判。当美国的承诺已毫无信用可言时，为何还要谈判？德黑兰亟需一位能阻止特朗普进一步升级局势的调停者——而眼下唯一可信的人选只有莫斯科。伊朗外长[阿巴斯]·阿拉格希定于 6 月 23 日与普京总统会晤。很难想象《不扩散核武器条约》的潜在退出不会成为议题。如果说过去伊朗的核弹被视为对以色列的生存威胁，那么如今形势已彻底逆转：对伊朗而言，核能力正迅速演变为关乎存亡的问题。
Konstantin Kosachev, vice speaker of the Federation Council:
俄罗斯联邦委员会副主席康斯坦丁·科萨切夫：
Let’s state the obvious: Iraq, Libya – and now Iran – were bombed because they couldn’t hit back. They either didn’t have weapons of mass destruction or hadn’t yet developed them. In some cases, they never even intended to. Meanwhile, the West doesn’t touch the four countries that remain outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty: India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Why? Because unlike Iraq, Libya, and Iran, these states actually possess nuclear weapons.
让我们阐明一个显而易见的事实：伊拉克、利比亚——现在是伊朗——之所以遭到轰炸，是因为它们无力反击。这些国家要么没有大规模杀伤性武器，要么尚未研发成功。在某些情况下，它们甚至从未有过研发意图。而西方却对《不扩散核武器条约》框架外的四个国家——印度、巴基斯坦、朝鲜和以色列——秋毫无犯。为什么？因为与伊拉克、利比亚和伊朗不同，这些国家确实拥有核武器。
The message to so-called ‘threshold’ nations couldn’t be clearer: if you don’t want to be bombed by the West, arm yourself. Build deterrence. Go all the way – even to the point of developing weapons of mass destruction. That’s the grim conclusion many countries will draw. It’s a dangerous lesson, and one that flies in the face of global security and the very idea of a rules-based international order.
这对所谓"核门槛国家"传递的信息再清楚不过：若不想遭受西方轰炸，就必须武装自己。建立威慑力量。甚至不惜发展大规模杀伤性武器——这是许多国家将得出的残酷结论。这种危险的教训，公然违背全球安全理念和基于规则的国际秩序原则。
Yet it’s the West that keeps driving this logic. Iraq was invaded over a vial of powder. Libya gave up its nuclear program and was torn apart. Iran joined the NPT, worked with the IAEA, and didn’t attack Israel – unlike Israel, which just struck Iran while staying outside the NPT and refusing to cooperate with nuclear watchdogs. This is more than hypocrisy; it’s a catastrophic failure of US policy.
然而正是西方不断推动这种逻辑。伊拉克因一小瓶粉末遭入侵。利比亚放弃核计划后却四分五裂。伊朗加入《不扩散核武器条约》并与国际原子能机构合作，且未攻击以色列——反观以色列，其置身条约之外且拒绝与核监督机构合作，却刚刚袭击了伊朗。这不仅是虚伪，更是美国政策的灾难性失败。
Trump’s administration has made a colossal mistake. The pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize has taken on grotesque and dangerous proportions.
特朗普政府犯下了巨大错误。对诺贝尔和平奖的追逐已呈现出荒诞而危险的态势。
Alexander Dugin, political philosopher and geopolitical analyst
亚历山大·杜金，政治哲学家兼地缘政治分析师
Some still cling to the illusion that World War III might somehow pass us by. It won’t. We are already in the thick of it. The US has carried out a bombing strike against Iran – our ally. Nothing stopped them. And if nothing stopped them from bombing Iran, then nothing will stop them from targeting us next. At some point, they may decide that Russia, like Iran, shouldn’t be allowed to possess nuclear weapons – or find some other pretext to strike. Make no mistake: we are at war.
仍有人幻想第三次世界大战或许能与我们擦肩而过。不会的。我们已深陷其中。美国对我们的盟友伊朗实施了轰炸袭击。没有任何力量阻止他们。既然轰炸伊朗无人阻拦，那么接下来攻击我们时同样无人能阻。终有一日，他们可能认定俄罗斯和伊朗一样不该拥有核武器——或随便找个借口发动打击。务必认清：我们已处于战争状态。
The US can attack whether we advance or retreat. It’s not about strategy – it’s about will. Ukraine may not be Israel in the eyes of the West, but it plays a similar role. Israel didn’t always exist; it was created and quickly became a proxy for the collective West – though some Israelis would argue the opposite, that the West is merely a proxy for Israel. Ukraine has followed the same trajectory. No wonder Zelensky isn’t asking for Western support – he’s demanding it, including nuclear arms. The model is clear. And just like Israel bombs Gaza with impunity, Kiev bombarded Donbass for years – albeit with fewer resources and less restraint from Moscow.
无论我们进或退，美国都可能发动攻击。这无关战略——关键在于意志。在西方眼中，乌克兰或许不是以色列，却扮演着相似角色。以色列并非自古存在；它被创造出来，迅速成为西方集团的代理人——尽管部分以色列人持相反观点，认为西方才是以色列的代理人。乌克兰正沿着相同轨迹发展。难怪泽连斯基不是在请求西方支持，而是以索取姿态要求援助，甚至包括核武器。模式已然清晰。正如以色列轰炸加沙却不受惩罚，基辅多年来也持续炮击顿巴斯——只不过资源更匮乏，且莫斯科方面约束力较弱。
Our appeals to the UN and calls for peace have become meaningless. If Iran falls, Russia is next. Trump, once again, is firmly in the grip of the neocons – just as he was during his first term. The MAGA project is over. There is no “great America,” only standard-issue globalism in its place.
我们对联合国的呼吁与和平诉求已失去意义。若伊朗倒下，下一个就是俄罗斯。特朗普再次被新保守派牢牢掌控——与他首个任期时如出一辙。MAGA 计划已然终结。这里没有"伟大的美国"，取而代之的只是标准版的全球主义。
Trump thinks he can strike once – like he did with Soleimani – and then walk it back. But there’s no walking this back. He has triggered a world war he cannot control, let alone win.
特朗普以为他能像刺杀苏莱曼尼那样一击即退。但这次没有回头路可走。他挑起了一场自己无法控制、更不可能获胜的世界大战。
Now, everything hinges on Iran. If it stays on its feet and keeps fighting, it might still prevail. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Houthis have blocked traffic in the Red Sea. As new players enter the fray, the situation will evolve rapidly. China will try to stay out – for now. Until the first blow lands on them, too.
如今，一切取决于伊朗。若其能站稳脚跟持续抗争，仍有胜算。霍尔木兹海峡已被封锁，胡塞武装切断了红海航道。随着新势力加入战局，局势将急剧变化。中国目前仍试图置身事外——直到第一记重拳也落到他们身上。
But if Iran folds, it won’t just lose itself – it will expose the rest of us. That includes Russia, now facing an existential choice. The question isn’t whether to fight. Russia is already fighting. The question is how. The old methods are exhausted. That means we’ll have to find a new way to fight – and fast.
但若伊朗倒下，不仅自身沦陷，更将令我们所有人暴露无遗。这包括正面临生存抉择的俄罗斯。问题已非是否应战——俄罗斯早已身处战场，关键在于如何应战。旧有手段已然穷尽，这意味着我们必须迅速找到新的斗争方式。
Dmitry Novikov, associate professor at the Higher School of Economics
高等经济学院副教授德米特里·诺维科夫
Judging by the remarks from Hegseth and General Cain at the press conference, the US appears to be signaling the end of its direct involvement – at least for now. Officially, Iran’s nuclear program has been “eliminated.” Whether that’s actually true is beside the point. Even if Tehran manages to build a bomb six months from now, the narrative is set: the operation was targeted solely at nuclear infrastructure, with no strikes on military forces or civilians. A narrow, clean, and – according to Washington – decisively successful mission. The job is done, the curtain falls.
从赫格塞斯和凯恩将军在新闻发布会上的发言判断，美国似乎在释放结束直接介入的信号——至少目前如此。官方宣称伊朗的核计划已被"彻底摧毁"。事实是否如此并不重要。即便德黑兰半年后成功造出核弹，舆论基调已然确立：此次行动仅针对核设施，未袭击军事力量或平民。这是一次精准、干净且——用华盛顿的话说——决定性成功的任务。大幕落下，任务完成。
That doesn’t mean Washington is walking away. The US will continue to back Israel and retains the capacity to escalate if needed. But for the moment, the mood seems to be one of self-congratulatory closure.
这并不意味着华盛顿会抽身而退。美国将继续支持以色列，并保留必要时升级局势的能力。但就此刻而言，空气中弥漫着自我庆功的收场氛围。
Of course, if they really wanted to go all in, they could’ve used a tactical nuclear weapon.
当然，若真打算孤注一掷，他们本可动用战术核武器。
That would’ve offered undeniable “proof” of an Iranian bomb: if it explodes, it must have existed. And second, it would’ve allowed the administration to claim it had destroyed nuclear weapons on Iranian soil. Both assertions would’ve been technically accurate – if strategically absurd.
这将成为伊朗核武"确凿证据"：只要爆炸发生，就证明其存在。其次，美国政府可宣称已摧毁伊朗境内的核武器。两种说法在技术层面都成立——尽管战略上荒谬至极。
None of it would’ve been factually false. Just morally and politically radioactive.
所有指控在事实上都无懈可击，却在道义和政治层面贻害无穷。
Sergey Markov, political analyst
谢尔盖·马尔科夫（政治分析家）
Why did the US choose to strike Iran now, after years of restraint? The answer is simple: fear. For decades, Washington held back out of concern that any attack would trigger a wave of retaliatory terror attacks – possibly hundreds – carried out by sleeper cells tied to Iran and its allies like Hezbollah. The prevailing assumption was that Iran had quietly prepared networks across the US and Israel, ready to unleash chaos in response.
美国为何在多年克制后选择此刻打击伊朗？答案很简单：恐惧。数十年来，华盛顿始终忌惮任何攻击都可能引发由伊朗及其盟友（如真主党）潜伏小组实施的报复性恐袭浪潮——可能高达数百起。主流观点认为，伊朗早已在美国和以色列秘密布建网络，随时准备制造混乱作为回应。
But Israel’s war in Lebanon dispelled that myth. The feared sleeper cells never materialized. Once that became clear, both Israel and the US realized they could strike Iran with minimal risk of serious blowback.
但以色列在黎巴嫩的战争打破了这一神话。令人担忧的潜伏组织始终未能成形。当这一点变得明朗后，以色列和美国都意识到，他们可以打击伊朗而几乎不必担心遭受严重报复。
And so, ironically, Iran’s restraint – its perceived “peacefulness” – has paved the way to war. There’s a lesson in that for Russia: when the West senses both a willingness to negotiate and a refusal to submit, it responds not with diplomacy, but with force. That is the true face of Western imperialism.
讽刺的是，正是伊朗的克制——其表现出的"和平姿态"——为战争铺平了道路。这对俄罗斯是个警示：当西方既察觉到谈判意愿又看到拒不屈服的姿态时，其回应不是外交斡旋，而是武力压制。这就是西方帝国主义的真实面目。
Vladimir Batyuk, chief research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
俄罗斯科学院美国与加拿大研究所首席研究员 弗拉基米尔·巴秋克
Trump has crossed a red line. We’re now facing the real possibility of a major military confrontation. Iran could retaliate by striking US military installations across the Middle East, prompting Washington to respond in kind. That would mark the beginning of a drawn-out armed conflict – one the US may find increasingly difficult to contain.
特朗普已越过红线。我们现在正面临重大军事对抗的现实可能性。伊朗可能通过打击美国在中东的军事设施进行报复，从而促使华盛顿以牙还牙。这将标志着旷日持久武装冲突的开端——美国可能会发现越来越难以控制局势。
What we’re witnessing looks very much like a victory for the so-called ‘deep state’. Many had expected Trump to hold back, to avoid taking the bait. But he allowed himself to be pulled into a high-risk gamble whose consequences are impossible to predict.
我们目睹的这一幕，极像是所谓"深层政府"的胜利。许多人曾预期特朗普会保持克制，避免中计。但他却放任自己卷入这场高风险赌局，其后果根本无法预料。
And politically, this may backfire. If the standoff with Iran sends oil prices soaring, the fallout could be severe. In the United States, gasoline prices are sacrosanct. Any administration that allows them to spiral out of control faces serious domestic repercussions. For Trump, this could turn into a serious vulnerability.
从政治角度看，此举可能适得其反。若与伊朗的僵局导致油价飙升，后果将极为严重。在美国，汽油价格堪称神圣不可侵犯。任何放任油价失控的政府都将面临严重的国内政治反弹。对特朗普而言，这或将演变成重大软肋。
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council; former president of Russia
俄罗斯联邦安全会议副主席；俄罗斯前总统德米特里·梅德韦杰夫
So, what exactly did the US accomplish with its midnight strike on three targets in Iran?
那么，美国午夜对伊朗三处目标发动袭击究竟达成了什么？
1. Iran’s critical nuclear infrastructure appears to be intact – or at worst, only minimally damaged.
1. 伊朗关键核设施似乎完好无损——最坏情况下也仅受到轻微破坏。
2. Uranium enrichment will continue. And let’s just say it plainly now: so will Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.
2. 铀浓缩活动将持续进行。现在不妨直说：伊朗研制核武器的进程同样不会停止。
3. Several countries are reportedly ready to supply Iran with nuclear warheads directly.
3. 据报道，多个国家已准备好直接向伊朗提供核弹头。
4. Israel is under fire, explosions are echoing through its cities, and civilians are panicking.
4. 以色列正遭受猛烈攻击，爆炸声在城市中回荡，平民陷入恐慌。
5. The US is now entangled in yet another conflict, this one carrying the very real possibility of a ground war.
5. 美国如今又卷入一场新的冲突，这次极有可能演变为地面战争。
6. Iran’s political leadership has not only survived – it may have grown stronger.
6. 伊朗政治领导层不仅挺过了危机——其势力可能反而有所增强。
7. Even Iranians who opposed the regime are now rallying around it.
7. 就连反对伊朗政权的民众如今也团结在政府周围。
8. Donald Trump, the self-styled peace president, has just launched a new war.
8. 自诩为"和平总统"的特朗普刚刚发动了一场新战争。
9. The overwhelming majority of the international community is siding against the US and Israel.
9. 国际社会绝大多数成员都站在美国和以色列的对立面。
10. At this rate, Trump can kiss that Nobel Peace Prize goodbye – despite how absurdly compromised the award has become.
10. 照这样下去，特朗普可以彻底告别诺贝尔和平奖了——尽管该奖项早已变得荒谬可笑。
So, congratulations, Mr. President. Truly a stellar start.
所以，祝贺您，总统先生。这真是个辉煌的开局。
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