“特朗普的关税对中国而言是好事”新加坡前外长谈中美日益紧张的关系
正文翻译
杨荣文，新加坡籍华人，前新加坡外长。
How do you look at the tariff thing? Will it ultimately serve the US interests, or what's its impact on global economy? Trump is going back to an old world, where there's no WTO, where there's no MFN, where trade is part of politics, part of relationship. I like you, I need you more. So we have a trade deal. We have one regime. I don't like you, you need me more, we have another regime.
主持人：
你如何看待关税这件事？它最终会服务于美国的利益，还是对全球经济有什么影响？
杨：
特朗普正在回到一个旧的世界，那里没有世贸组织，没有最惠国待遇，贸易是政治的一部分，是关系的一部分。我喜欢你，我更需要你。所以我们有一个贸易协议。我们有一个贸易体制。我不喜欢你，你更需要我，我们有另一个贸易体制。
So Trump has abandoned all the ideals of free trade. He thinks that this will benefit the US more. If you think about it, it is because the US no longer feels the same self-confidence which it had in the past, when it was 40% of the global economy. It set the rules, and it said, well, you can depoliticize. You can politicize trade. And that was what the WTO was. But the US is no longer in such a position. And it feels a growing insecurity about itself. And it has turned the table around and said, you're exploiting me. And therefore I will have to take actions to protect myself. So Trump, I think he enjoys doing it. He doesn't understand that it causes a lot of confusion. Right. Imagine if a ship with 20,000 containers going to the US and in the middle of the voyage, Trump has changed his mind. What do you do? And if you are receiving those containers, do you want them? Maybe you don't want them. Or maybe you want the ship to speed up so that it arrives before new policies are in place. The supply chain is now in disarray because of Trump. And Trump doesn't understand that you can change your mind from day to day, but it has long-term effects. But this is a phase we are living through. It's there. It's got power. We adjust to it.
所以特朗普已经放弃了所有自由贸易的理想。他认为这会让美国受益更多。如果你想想看，这是因为美国不再有过去当它占全球经济40%时的自信。（那时）它制定规则，并说，好吧，你可以使贸易非政治化。你（也）可以使贸易政治化。那就是世贸组织的作用。但美国不再处于这样的位置了。它感到越来越不安全。它心态已经变了，说，你们在利用我。因此我不得不采取行动保护自己。
所以我认为特朗普喜欢这样做。他不理解这会引起很多混乱。没错。想象一下，一艘载有20,000个集装箱的船正驶往美国，在航行途中，特朗普改变了主意。你该怎么办？如果你正在接收这些集装箱，你想要它们吗？也许你不想。或者也许你想让船加速，以便在新政策实施之前到达。现在，因为特朗普，供应链陷入混乱。特朗普不理解的是——你可以天天改变主意，但这会产生长期的影响。
但这是我们正在经历的一个阶段。它在那里。它有权力。我们适应它。
And as you said earlier, trade is like water. It will always find its way. You can have all the rules you want, but whatever the rules, people will find a way around them. Right. Well, yes, trade will go on maybe in different shapes and forms. But what about countries caught between the US and China? You know, we all understand that in terms of tariffs, China is the number one target for the US. Like what people call a poison pill in agreements, in trade agreements. Like the agreement between China and US. You know, part of the agreement targets China, like transshipping goods from Vietnam to US. Countries like Vietnam, Singapore, and others in the region have strong relationships with both sides. How should they handle this undesirable situation? If you say OK, transshipment 40%, what is transshipment? What are the rules of origin? How do you calculate rules of origin? How do you police transfer pricing? These are all difficult issues.
主持人：
正如你先前所说，贸易就像水。它总是会找到出路。你可以制定任何你想要的规则，但无论规则是什么，人们总会找到绕过规则的方法。
杨：
对。嗯，是的，贸易会以不同的形式继续。但那些夹在美国和中国之间的国家呢？你知道，我们都明白，在关税方面，美国的首要目标是中国。正如人们所说的，在贸易协议中，有一种毒药条款。例如，中美之间的协议。你知道，协议的一部分是针对中国的，例如从越南转运货物到美国。像越南、新加坡以及该地区的国家，都与双方有密切的关系。他们应该如何处理这种不利的局面？如果你说，好吧，转运加40%关税，转运怎么定义？原产地规则是什么？如何计算原产地规则？如何监管转移定价？这些都是困难的问题。
And you need an entire bureaucracy to write out the rules and to enforce them. And if you don't have this bureaucracy to do it, traders will play games. So we should not be too fixated on numbers. The fact is, tariffs are an additional tax on American people. And maybe that's what Trump wants. He wants to increase revenues. Will it revive American manufacturing? It's not so easy. I mean, you go to EU and buy whatever, like a kitchen utensil. By the time it arrives in a supermarket or on Amazon in US, it costs 10 times more. Roughly. Rule of thumb. So if you increase the price of purchase from EU by 50%, OK, it goes to America, 50% can be absorbed. Can this revive manufacturing in US? I'm not so sure. And do you want to revive all kinds of manufacturing in US? US is an advanced society. There are things it's very good at, there are things it's not good at. I think US should concentrate on technology and revive manufacturing technology. But even if they do all the right things now, it will take another 20 years to fully recover. It takes time. And in the meantime, people must live and goods must flow. So this is a very interesting period in world history. We will live with it.
你需要一个完整的官僚体系来制定规则并执行它们。如果你没有这个官僚体系来做这件事，贸易商就会玩游戏。所以我们不应该过于关注数字。事实是，关税是对美国人民的额外税收。也许这就是特朗普想要的。他想要增加收入。这能复兴美国的制造业吗？这并不容易。
我的意思是，你去欧盟买任何东西，比如一个厨房用品。当它到达超市或在美国亚马逊上时，它的价格大概是原来的10倍。所以你将从欧盟的购买价格增加50%。好的，它去美国，50%可以被买单。但这能复兴美国的制造业吗？我不是很确定。你想复兴美国的所有种类的制造业吗？美国是一个先进的社会。有它非常擅长的事情，也有它不擅长的事情。我认为美国应该集中在技术上，并复兴制造技术。但即使他们现在做对所有事情，也需要另外20年才能完全恢复。这需要时间。与此同时，人们必须生活。货物必须流通。所以这是世界历史上一个非常有趣的时期。我们会经历这个阶段。
You said in a recent interview that you suggested new generations of Western scholars should study more in China and history. Absolutely. There is such poor understanding of China in the West today. They focus on politics, on***, on the communist Party. But *** and the communist Party did not start from a blank sheet of paper. They start with 5,000 years of history. And they cannot escape it. I remember what Mao Zedong said before he died: he said he had only managed to change a few things around Beijing because the material is Chinese civilization, which you inherit and cannot change. So Westerners who deal with China must try to understand China more deeply. And today, the degree of understanding of China in the West is very shallow. And to me, because it is shallow, it is very dangerous because they will make mistakes, and these mistakes will be lose-lose for China as well. So it is really in China's interest to make itself more easily understood.
主持人：
你最近在采访中说，你建议西方新一代学者应该更多地在中国学习历史。
杨：
是的。今天，西方对中国的理解非常贫乏。他们关注政治……。但中国一切并不是从一张白纸开始的。他们从5000年的历史开始。他们无法逃避这一点。我记得毛泽东在去世前说过，他只设法改变了北京周围的一些事情。因为材料（基础）是中国文明，你继承了它，你无法改变它。所以与中国打交道的西方人必须努力更深入地了解中国。今天，西方对中国的理解程度非常浅薄。对我来说，因为它是浅薄的，它非常危险，因为他们会犯错。这些错误对中国来说也是双输。所以，真的，中国的利益在于让自己更容易被理解。
The U.S. is seemingly distancing itself from the Ukraine situation after trying to get a ceasefire or peace deal. You see, Trump is the first U.S. administration to openly recognize that the U.S. now exists in a multipolar world. The Biden administration still wanted to be number one, top dog, supremo. But Trump administration is more realistic because they have a big budget deficit; they know their own strengths are limited. So on Ukraine, they were leading the eastward expansion of NATO; then they led Western opposition to Russia; now Trump says hey why am I spending all this money? You should be spending it; this is insurance; if you don't spend it there's no insurance; and European powers are shocked; suddenly Trump is talking directly to Russians above heads of Ukrainians and Europeans; sometimes he wants to be mediator; Europe is reeling; they don't know how to respond; so Trump went there said no you must spend more; NATO conference okay 5% now but let's say they spend 5% after 10 20 years they'll develop military muscles then they won't have to follow US anymore they'll develop their own policy and Europe will have to live with Russia because Russia's going to be there forever so Trump in a sense is helping crystallize multipolar world because of US relative weakness.
美国似乎正在远离乌克兰局势，在试图达成停火或和平协议之后。你看，特朗普是第一个公开承认美国现在处于多极世界中的美国政府。拜登政府仍然希望成为老大，最强，超级大国。但特朗普政府更现实，因为他们有巨大的预算赤字。他们知道自己的实力有限。所以在乌克兰问题上，他们领导了北约向东扩张。然后他们领导了西方与俄罗斯的对抗。现在特朗普说，嘿，你知道，我为什么要花这么多钱？你们应该花钱。这是一个保险政策。如果你们不花钱，就没有保险。
欧洲国家震惊了。突然特朗普直接与俄罗斯人对话。越过乌克兰人和欧洲人民。有时他想成为调解人。欧洲对此感到震惊。他们不太知道如何回应。所以特朗普去那里说，不，你们必须花更多钱。在北约会议上——好的，现在5%？但假设他们花了5%。10年、20年后，他们将发展军事肌肉。届时他们将不再需要追随美国。他们将开始制定自己的政策。欧洲将不得不与俄罗斯共处，因为俄罗斯将永远存在。所以从某种意义上说，由于美国相对的弱势，特朗普正在帮助多极世界的形成。
杨荣文，新加坡籍华人，前新加坡外长。
How do you look at the tariff thing? Will it ultimately serve the US interests, or what's its impact on global economy? Trump is going back to an old world, where there's no WTO, where there's no MFN, where trade is part of politics, part of relationship. I like you, I need you more. So we have a trade deal. We have one regime. I don't like you, you need me more, we have another regime.
主持人：
你如何看待关税这件事？它最终会服务于美国的利益，还是对全球经济有什么影响？
杨：
特朗普正在回到一个旧的世界，那里没有世贸组织，没有最惠国待遇，贸易是政治的一部分，是关系的一部分。我喜欢你，我更需要你。所以我们有一个贸易协议。我们有一个贸易体制。我不喜欢你，你更需要我，我们有另一个贸易体制。
So Trump has abandoned all the ideals of free trade. He thinks that this will benefit the US more. If you think about it, it is because the US no longer feels the same self-confidence which it had in the past, when it was 40% of the global economy. It set the rules, and it said, well, you can depoliticize. You can politicize trade. And that was what the WTO was. But the US is no longer in such a position. And it feels a growing insecurity about itself. And it has turned the table around and said, you're exploiting me. And therefore I will have to take actions to protect myself. So Trump, I think he enjoys doing it. He doesn't understand that it causes a lot of confusion. Right. Imagine if a ship with 20,000 containers going to the US and in the middle of the voyage, Trump has changed his mind. What do you do? And if you are receiving those containers, do you want them? Maybe you don't want them. Or maybe you want the ship to speed up so that it arrives before new policies are in place. The supply chain is now in disarray because of Trump. And Trump doesn't understand that you can change your mind from day to day, but it has long-term effects. But this is a phase we are living through. It's there. It's got power. We adjust to it.
所以特朗普已经放弃了所有自由贸易的理想。他认为这会让美国受益更多。如果你想想看，这是因为美国不再有过去当它占全球经济40%时的自信。（那时）它制定规则，并说，好吧，你可以使贸易非政治化。你（也）可以使贸易政治化。那就是世贸组织的作用。但美国不再处于这样的位置了。它感到越来越不安全。它心态已经变了，说，你们在利用我。因此我不得不采取行动保护自己。
所以我认为特朗普喜欢这样做。他不理解这会引起很多混乱。没错。想象一下，一艘载有20,000个集装箱的船正驶往美国，在航行途中，特朗普改变了主意。你该怎么办？如果你正在接收这些集装箱，你想要它们吗？也许你不想。或者也许你想让船加速，以便在新政策实施之前到达。现在，因为特朗普，供应链陷入混乱。特朗普不理解的是——你可以天天改变主意，但这会产生长期的影响。
但这是我们正在经历的一个阶段。它在那里。它有权力。我们适应它。
And as you said earlier, trade is like water. It will always find its way. You can have all the rules you want, but whatever the rules, people will find a way around them. Right. Well, yes, trade will go on maybe in different shapes and forms. But what about countries caught between the US and China? You know, we all understand that in terms of tariffs, China is the number one target for the US. Like what people call a poison pill in agreements, in trade agreements. Like the agreement between China and US. You know, part of the agreement targets China, like transshipping goods from Vietnam to US. Countries like Vietnam, Singapore, and others in the region have strong relationships with both sides. How should they handle this undesirable situation? If you say OK, transshipment 40%, what is transshipment? What are the rules of origin? How do you calculate rules of origin? How do you police transfer pricing? These are all difficult issues.
主持人：
正如你先前所说，贸易就像水。它总是会找到出路。你可以制定任何你想要的规则，但无论规则是什么，人们总会找到绕过规则的方法。
杨：
对。嗯，是的，贸易会以不同的形式继续。但那些夹在美国和中国之间的国家呢？你知道，我们都明白，在关税方面，美国的首要目标是中国。正如人们所说的，在贸易协议中，有一种毒药条款。例如，中美之间的协议。你知道，协议的一部分是针对中国的，例如从越南转运货物到美国。像越南、新加坡以及该地区的国家，都与双方有密切的关系。他们应该如何处理这种不利的局面？如果你说，好吧，转运加40%关税，转运怎么定义？原产地规则是什么？如何计算原产地规则？如何监管转移定价？这些都是困难的问题。
And you need an entire bureaucracy to write out the rules and to enforce them. And if you don't have this bureaucracy to do it, traders will play games. So we should not be too fixated on numbers. The fact is, tariffs are an additional tax on American people. And maybe that's what Trump wants. He wants to increase revenues. Will it revive American manufacturing? It's not so easy. I mean, you go to EU and buy whatever, like a kitchen utensil. By the time it arrives in a supermarket or on Amazon in US, it costs 10 times more. Roughly. Rule of thumb. So if you increase the price of purchase from EU by 50%, OK, it goes to America, 50% can be absorbed. Can this revive manufacturing in US? I'm not so sure. And do you want to revive all kinds of manufacturing in US? US is an advanced society. There are things it's very good at, there are things it's not good at. I think US should concentrate on technology and revive manufacturing technology. But even if they do all the right things now, it will take another 20 years to fully recover. It takes time. And in the meantime, people must live and goods must flow. So this is a very interesting period in world history. We will live with it.
你需要一个完整的官僚体系来制定规则并执行它们。如果你没有这个官僚体系来做这件事，贸易商就会玩游戏。所以我们不应该过于关注数字。事实是，关税是对美国人民的额外税收。也许这就是特朗普想要的。他想要增加收入。这能复兴美国的制造业吗？这并不容易。
我的意思是，你去欧盟买任何东西，比如一个厨房用品。当它到达超市或在美国亚马逊上时，它的价格大概是原来的10倍。所以你将从欧盟的购买价格增加50%。好的，它去美国，50%可以被买单。但这能复兴美国的制造业吗？我不是很确定。你想复兴美国的所有种类的制造业吗？美国是一个先进的社会。有它非常擅长的事情，也有它不擅长的事情。我认为美国应该集中在技术上，并复兴制造技术。但即使他们现在做对所有事情，也需要另外20年才能完全恢复。这需要时间。与此同时，人们必须生活。货物必须流通。所以这是世界历史上一个非常有趣的时期。我们会经历这个阶段。
You said in a recent interview that you suggested new generations of Western scholars should study more in China and history. Absolutely. There is such poor understanding of China in the West today. They focus on politics, on***, on the communist Party. But *** and the communist Party did not start from a blank sheet of paper. They start with 5,000 years of history. And they cannot escape it. I remember what Mao Zedong said before he died: he said he had only managed to change a few things around Beijing because the material is Chinese civilization, which you inherit and cannot change. So Westerners who deal with China must try to understand China more deeply. And today, the degree of understanding of China in the West is very shallow. And to me, because it is shallow, it is very dangerous because they will make mistakes, and these mistakes will be lose-lose for China as well. So it is really in China's interest to make itself more easily understood.
主持人：
你最近在采访中说，你建议西方新一代学者应该更多地在中国学习历史。
杨：
是的。今天，西方对中国的理解非常贫乏。他们关注政治……。但中国一切并不是从一张白纸开始的。他们从5000年的历史开始。他们无法逃避这一点。我记得毛泽东在去世前说过，他只设法改变了北京周围的一些事情。因为材料（基础）是中国文明，你继承了它，你无法改变它。所以与中国打交道的西方人必须努力更深入地了解中国。今天，西方对中国的理解程度非常浅薄。对我来说，因为它是浅薄的，它非常危险，因为他们会犯错。这些错误对中国来说也是双输。所以，真的，中国的利益在于让自己更容易被理解。
The U.S. is seemingly distancing itself from the Ukraine situation after trying to get a ceasefire or peace deal. You see, Trump is the first U.S. administration to openly recognize that the U.S. now exists in a multipolar world. The Biden administration still wanted to be number one, top dog, supremo. But Trump administration is more realistic because they have a big budget deficit; they know their own strengths are limited. So on Ukraine, they were leading the eastward expansion of NATO; then they led Western opposition to Russia; now Trump says hey why am I spending all this money? You should be spending it; this is insurance; if you don't spend it there's no insurance; and European powers are shocked; suddenly Trump is talking directly to Russians above heads of Ukrainians and Europeans; sometimes he wants to be mediator; Europe is reeling; they don't know how to respond; so Trump went there said no you must spend more; NATO conference okay 5% now but let's say they spend 5% after 10 20 years they'll develop military muscles then they won't have to follow US anymore they'll develop their own policy and Europe will have to live with Russia because Russia's going to be there forever so Trump in a sense is helping crystallize multipolar world because of US relative weakness.
美国似乎正在远离乌克兰局势，在试图达成停火或和平协议之后。你看，特朗普是第一个公开承认美国现在处于多极世界中的美国政府。拜登政府仍然希望成为老大，最强，超级大国。但特朗普政府更现实，因为他们有巨大的预算赤字。他们知道自己的实力有限。所以在乌克兰问题上，他们领导了北约向东扩张。然后他们领导了西方与俄罗斯的对抗。现在特朗普说，嘿，你知道，我为什么要花这么多钱？你们应该花钱。这是一个保险政策。如果你们不花钱，就没有保险。
欧洲国家震惊了。突然特朗普直接与俄罗斯人对话。越过乌克兰人和欧洲人民。有时他想成为调解人。欧洲对此感到震惊。他们不太知道如何回应。所以特朗普去那里说，不，你们必须花更多钱。在北约会议上——好的，现在5%？但假设他们花了5%。10年、20年后，他们将发展军事肌肉。届时他们将不再需要追随美国。他们将开始制定自己的政策。欧洲将不得不与俄罗斯共处，因为俄罗斯将永远存在。所以从某种意义上说，由于美国相对的弱势，特朗普正在帮助多极世界的形成。
评论翻译
杨荣文，新加坡籍华人，前新加坡外长。
How do you look at the tariff thing? Will it ultimately serve the US interests, or what's its impact on global economy? Trump is going back to an old world, where there's no WTO, where there's no MFN, where trade is part of politics, part of relationship. I like you, I need you more. So we have a trade deal. We have one regime. I don't like you, you need me more, we have another regime.
主持人：
你如何看待关税这件事？它最终会服务于美国的利益，还是对全球经济有什么影响？
杨：
特朗普正在回到一个旧的世界，那里没有世贸组织，没有最惠国待遇，贸易是政治的一部分，是关系的一部分。我喜欢你，我更需要你。所以我们有一个贸易协议。我们有一个贸易体制。我不喜欢你，你更需要我，我们有另一个贸易体制。
So Trump has abandoned all the ideals of free trade. He thinks that this will benefit the US more. If you think about it, it is because the US no longer feels the same self-confidence which it had in the past, when it was 40% of the global economy. It set the rules, and it said, well, you can depoliticize. You can politicize trade. And that was what the WTO was. But the US is no longer in such a position. And it feels a growing insecurity about itself. And it has turned the table around and said, you're exploiting me. And therefore I will have to take actions to protect myself. So Trump, I think he enjoys doing it. He doesn't understand that it causes a lot of confusion. Right. Imagine if a ship with 20,000 containers going to the US and in the middle of the voyage, Trump has changed his mind. What do you do? And if you are receiving those containers, do you want them? Maybe you don't want them. Or maybe you want the ship to speed up so that it arrives before new policies are in place. The supply chain is now in disarray because of Trump. And Trump doesn't understand that you can change your mind from day to day, but it has long-term effects. But this is a phase we are living through. It's there. It's got power. We adjust to it.
所以特朗普已经放弃了所有自由贸易的理想。他认为这会让美国受益更多。如果你想想看，这是因为美国不再有过去当它占全球经济40%时的自信。（那时）它制定规则，并说，好吧，你可以使贸易非政治化。你（也）可以使贸易政治化。那就是世贸组织的作用。但美国不再处于这样的位置了。它感到越来越不安全。它心态已经变了，说，你们在利用我。因此我不得不采取行动保护自己。
所以我认为特朗普喜欢这样做。他不理解这会引起很多混乱。没错。想象一下，一艘载有20,000个集装箱的船正驶往美国，在航行途中，特朗普改变了主意。你该怎么办？如果你正在接收这些集装箱，你想要它们吗？也许你不想。或者也许你想让船加速，以便在新政策实施之前到达。现在，因为特朗普，供应链陷入混乱。特朗普不理解的是——你可以天天改变主意，但这会产生长期的影响。
但这是我们正在经历的一个阶段。它在那里。它有权力。我们适应它。
And as you said earlier, trade is like water. It will always find its way. You can have all the rules you want, but whatever the rules, people will find a way around them. Right. Well, yes, trade will go on maybe in different shapes and forms. But what about countries caught between the US and China? You know, we all understand that in terms of tariffs, China is the number one target for the US. Like what people call a poison pill in agreements, in trade agreements. Like the agreement between China and US. You know, part of the agreement targets China, like transshipping goods from Vietnam to US. Countries like Vietnam, Singapore, and others in the region have strong relationships with both sides. How should they handle this undesirable situation? If you say OK, transshipment 40%, what is transshipment? What are the rules of origin? How do you calculate rules of origin? How do you police transfer pricing? These are all difficult issues.
主持人：
正如你先前所说，贸易就像水。它总是会找到出路。你可以制定任何你想要的规则，但无论规则是什么，人们总会找到绕过规则的方法。
杨：
对。嗯，是的，贸易会以不同的形式继续。但那些夹在美国和中国之间的国家呢？你知道，我们都明白，在关税方面，美国的首要目标是中国。正如人们所说的，在贸易协议中，有一种毒药条款。例如，中美之间的协议。你知道，协议的一部分是针对中国的，例如从越南转运货物到美国。像越南、新加坡以及该地区的国家，都与双方有密切的关系。他们应该如何处理这种不利的局面？如果你说，好吧，转运加40%关税，转运怎么定义？原产地规则是什么？如何计算原产地规则？如何监管转移定价？这些都是困难的问题。
And you need an entire bureaucracy to write out the rules and to enforce them. And if you don't have this bureaucracy to do it, traders will play games. So we should not be too fixated on numbers. The fact is, tariffs are an additional tax on American people. And maybe that's what Trump wants. He wants to increase revenues. Will it revive American manufacturing? It's not so easy. I mean, you go to EU and buy whatever, like a kitchen utensil. By the time it arrives in a supermarket or on Amazon in US, it costs 10 times more. Roughly. Rule of thumb. So if you increase the price of purchase from EU by 50%, OK, it goes to America, 50% can be absorbed. Can this revive manufacturing in US? I'm not so sure. And do you want to revive all kinds of manufacturing in US? US is an advanced society. There are things it's very good at, there are things it's not good at. I think US should concentrate on technology and revive manufacturing technology. But even if they do all the right things now, it will take another 20 years to fully recover. It takes time. And in the meantime, people must live and goods must flow. So this is a very interesting period in world history. We will live with it.
你需要一个完整的官僚体系来制定规则并执行它们。如果你没有这个官僚体系来做这件事，贸易商就会玩游戏。所以我们不应该过于关注数字。事实是，关税是对美国人民的额外税收。也许这就是特朗普想要的。他想要增加收入。这能复兴美国的制造业吗？这并不容易。
我的意思是，你去欧盟买任何东西，比如一个厨房用品。当它到达超市或在美国亚马逊上时，它的价格大概是原来的10倍。所以你将从欧盟的购买价格增加50%。好的，它去美国，50%可以被买单。但这能复兴美国的制造业吗？我不是很确定。你想复兴美国的所有种类的制造业吗？美国是一个先进的社会。有它非常擅长的事情，也有它不擅长的事情。我认为美国应该集中在技术上，并复兴制造技术。但即使他们现在做对所有事情，也需要另外20年才能完全恢复。这需要时间。与此同时，人们必须生活。货物必须流通。所以这是世界历史上一个非常有趣的时期。我们会经历这个阶段。
You said in a recent interview that you suggested new generations of Western scholars should study more in China and history. Absolutely. There is such poor understanding of China in the West today. They focus on politics, on***, on the communist Party. But *** and the communist Party did not start from a blank sheet of paper. They start with 5,000 years of history. And they cannot escape it. I remember what Mao Zedong said before he died: he said he had only managed to change a few things around Beijing because the material is Chinese civilization, which you inherit and cannot change. So Westerners who deal with China must try to understand China more deeply. And today, the degree of understanding of China in the West is very shallow. And to me, because it is shallow, it is very dangerous because they will make mistakes, and these mistakes will be lose-lose for China as well. So it is really in China's interest to make itself more easily understood.
主持人：
你最近在采访中说，你建议西方新一代学者应该更多地在中国学习历史。
杨：
是的。今天，西方对中国的理解非常贫乏。他们关注政治……。但中国一切并不是从一张白纸开始的。他们从5000年的历史开始。他们无法逃避这一点。我记得毛泽东在去世前说过，他只设法改变了北京周围的一些事情。因为材料（基础）是中国文明，你继承了它，你无法改变它。所以与中国打交道的西方人必须努力更深入地了解中国。今天，西方对中国的理解程度非常浅薄。对我来说，因为它是浅薄的，它非常危险，因为他们会犯错。这些错误对中国来说也是双输。所以，真的，中国的利益在于让自己更容易被理解。
The U.S. is seemingly distancing itself from the Ukraine situation after trying to get a ceasefire or peace deal. You see, Trump is the first U.S. administration to openly recognize that the U.S. now exists in a multipolar world. The Biden administration still wanted to be number one, top dog, supremo. But Trump administration is more realistic because they have a big budget deficit; they know their own strengths are limited. So on Ukraine, they were leading the eastward expansion of NATO; then they led Western opposition to Russia; now Trump says hey why am I spending all this money? You should be spending it; this is insurance; if you don't spend it there's no insurance; and European powers are shocked; suddenly Trump is talking directly to Russians above heads of Ukrainians and Europeans; sometimes he wants to be mediator; Europe is reeling; they don't know how to respond; so Trump went there said no you must spend more; NATO conference okay 5% now but let's say they spend 5% after 10 20 years they'll develop military muscles then they won't have to follow US anymore they'll develop their own policy and Europe will have to live with Russia because Russia's going to be there forever so Trump in a sense is helping crystallize multipolar world because of US relative weakness.
美国似乎正在远离乌克兰局势，在试图达成停火或和平协议之后。你看，特朗普是第一个公开承认美国现在处于多极世界中的美国政府。拜登政府仍然希望成为老大，最强，超级大国。但特朗普政府更现实，因为他们有巨大的预算赤字。他们知道自己的实力有限。所以在乌克兰问题上，他们领导了北约向东扩张。然后他们领导了西方与俄罗斯的对抗。现在特朗普说，嘿，你知道，我为什么要花这么多钱？你们应该花钱。这是一个保险政策。如果你们不花钱，就没有保险。
欧洲国家震惊了。突然特朗普直接与俄罗斯人对话。越过乌克兰人和欧洲人民。有时他想成为调解人。欧洲对此感到震惊。他们不太知道如何回应。所以特朗普去那里说，不，你们必须花更多钱。在北约会议上——好的，现在5%？但假设他们花了5%。10年、20年后，他们将发展军事肌肉。届时他们将不再需要追随美国。他们将开始制定自己的政策。欧洲将不得不与俄罗斯共处，因为俄罗斯将永远存在。所以从某种意义上说，由于美国相对的弱势，特朗普正在帮助多极世界的形成。
杨荣文，新加坡籍华人，前新加坡外长。
How do you look at the tariff thing? Will it ultimately serve the US interests, or what's its impact on global economy? Trump is going back to an old world, where there's no WTO, where there's no MFN, where trade is part of politics, part of relationship. I like you, I need you more. So we have a trade deal. We have one regime. I don't like you, you need me more, we have another regime.
主持人：
你如何看待关税这件事？它最终会服务于美国的利益，还是对全球经济有什么影响？
杨：
特朗普正在回到一个旧的世界，那里没有世贸组织，没有最惠国待遇，贸易是政治的一部分，是关系的一部分。我喜欢你，我更需要你。所以我们有一个贸易协议。我们有一个贸易体制。我不喜欢你，你更需要我，我们有另一个贸易体制。
So Trump has abandoned all the ideals of free trade. He thinks that this will benefit the US more. If you think about it, it is because the US no longer feels the same self-confidence which it had in the past, when it was 40% of the global economy. It set the rules, and it said, well, you can depoliticize. You can politicize trade. And that was what the WTO was. But the US is no longer in such a position. And it feels a growing insecurity about itself. And it has turned the table around and said, you're exploiting me. And therefore I will have to take actions to protect myself. So Trump, I think he enjoys doing it. He doesn't understand that it causes a lot of confusion. Right. Imagine if a ship with 20,000 containers going to the US and in the middle of the voyage, Trump has changed his mind. What do you do? And if you are receiving those containers, do you want them? Maybe you don't want them. Or maybe you want the ship to speed up so that it arrives before new policies are in place. The supply chain is now in disarray because of Trump. And Trump doesn't understand that you can change your mind from day to day, but it has long-term effects. But this is a phase we are living through. It's there. It's got power. We adjust to it.
所以特朗普已经放弃了所有自由贸易的理想。他认为这会让美国受益更多。如果你想想看，这是因为美国不再有过去当它占全球经济40%时的自信。（那时）它制定规则，并说，好吧，你可以使贸易非政治化。你（也）可以使贸易政治化。那就是世贸组织的作用。但美国不再处于这样的位置了。它感到越来越不安全。它心态已经变了，说，你们在利用我。因此我不得不采取行动保护自己。
所以我认为特朗普喜欢这样做。他不理解这会引起很多混乱。没错。想象一下，一艘载有20,000个集装箱的船正驶往美国，在航行途中，特朗普改变了主意。你该怎么办？如果你正在接收这些集装箱，你想要它们吗？也许你不想。或者也许你想让船加速，以便在新政策实施之前到达。现在，因为特朗普，供应链陷入混乱。特朗普不理解的是——你可以天天改变主意，但这会产生长期的影响。
但这是我们正在经历的一个阶段。它在那里。它有权力。我们适应它。
And as you said earlier, trade is like water. It will always find its way. You can have all the rules you want, but whatever the rules, people will find a way around them. Right. Well, yes, trade will go on maybe in different shapes and forms. But what about countries caught between the US and China? You know, we all understand that in terms of tariffs, China is the number one target for the US. Like what people call a poison pill in agreements, in trade agreements. Like the agreement between China and US. You know, part of the agreement targets China, like transshipping goods from Vietnam to US. Countries like Vietnam, Singapore, and others in the region have strong relationships with both sides. How should they handle this undesirable situation? If you say OK, transshipment 40%, what is transshipment? What are the rules of origin? How do you calculate rules of origin? How do you police transfer pricing? These are all difficult issues.
主持人：
正如你先前所说，贸易就像水。它总是会找到出路。你可以制定任何你想要的规则，但无论规则是什么，人们总会找到绕过规则的方法。
杨：
对。嗯，是的，贸易会以不同的形式继续。但那些夹在美国和中国之间的国家呢？你知道，我们都明白，在关税方面，美国的首要目标是中国。正如人们所说的，在贸易协议中，有一种毒药条款。例如，中美之间的协议。你知道，协议的一部分是针对中国的，例如从越南转运货物到美国。像越南、新加坡以及该地区的国家，都与双方有密切的关系。他们应该如何处理这种不利的局面？如果你说，好吧，转运加40%关税，转运怎么定义？原产地规则是什么？如何计算原产地规则？如何监管转移定价？这些都是困难的问题。
And you need an entire bureaucracy to write out the rules and to enforce them. And if you don't have this bureaucracy to do it, traders will play games. So we should not be too fixated on numbers. The fact is, tariffs are an additional tax on American people. And maybe that's what Trump wants. He wants to increase revenues. Will it revive American manufacturing? It's not so easy. I mean, you go to EU and buy whatever, like a kitchen utensil. By the time it arrives in a supermarket or on Amazon in US, it costs 10 times more. Roughly. Rule of thumb. So if you increase the price of purchase from EU by 50%, OK, it goes to America, 50% can be absorbed. Can this revive manufacturing in US? I'm not so sure. And do you want to revive all kinds of manufacturing in US? US is an advanced society. There are things it's very good at, there are things it's not good at. I think US should concentrate on technology and revive manufacturing technology. But even if they do all the right things now, it will take another 20 years to fully recover. It takes time. And in the meantime, people must live and goods must flow. So this is a very interesting period in world history. We will live with it.
你需要一个完整的官僚体系来制定规则并执行它们。如果你没有这个官僚体系来做这件事，贸易商就会玩游戏。所以我们不应该过于关注数字。事实是，关税是对美国人民的额外税收。也许这就是特朗普想要的。他想要增加收入。这能复兴美国的制造业吗？这并不容易。
我的意思是，你去欧盟买任何东西，比如一个厨房用品。当它到达超市或在美国亚马逊上时，它的价格大概是原来的10倍。所以你将从欧盟的购买价格增加50%。好的，它去美国，50%可以被买单。但这能复兴美国的制造业吗？我不是很确定。你想复兴美国的所有种类的制造业吗？美国是一个先进的社会。有它非常擅长的事情，也有它不擅长的事情。我认为美国应该集中在技术上，并复兴制造技术。但即使他们现在做对所有事情，也需要另外20年才能完全恢复。这需要时间。与此同时，人们必须生活。货物必须流通。所以这是世界历史上一个非常有趣的时期。我们会经历这个阶段。
You said in a recent interview that you suggested new generations of Western scholars should study more in China and history. Absolutely. There is such poor understanding of China in the West today. They focus on politics, on***, on the communist Party. But *** and the communist Party did not start from a blank sheet of paper. They start with 5,000 years of history. And they cannot escape it. I remember what Mao Zedong said before he died: he said he had only managed to change a few things around Beijing because the material is Chinese civilization, which you inherit and cannot change. So Westerners who deal with China must try to understand China more deeply. And today, the degree of understanding of China in the West is very shallow. And to me, because it is shallow, it is very dangerous because they will make mistakes, and these mistakes will be lose-lose for China as well. So it is really in China's interest to make itself more easily understood.
主持人：
你最近在采访中说，你建议西方新一代学者应该更多地在中国学习历史。
杨：
是的。今天，西方对中国的理解非常贫乏。他们关注政治……。但中国一切并不是从一张白纸开始的。他们从5000年的历史开始。他们无法逃避这一点。我记得毛泽东在去世前说过，他只设法改变了北京周围的一些事情。因为材料（基础）是中国文明，你继承了它，你无法改变它。所以与中国打交道的西方人必须努力更深入地了解中国。今天，西方对中国的理解程度非常浅薄。对我来说，因为它是浅薄的，它非常危险，因为他们会犯错。这些错误对中国来说也是双输。所以，真的，中国的利益在于让自己更容易被理解。
The U.S. is seemingly distancing itself from the Ukraine situation after trying to get a ceasefire or peace deal. You see, Trump is the first U.S. administration to openly recognize that the U.S. now exists in a multipolar world. The Biden administration still wanted to be number one, top dog, supremo. But Trump administration is more realistic because they have a big budget deficit; they know their own strengths are limited. So on Ukraine, they were leading the eastward expansion of NATO; then they led Western opposition to Russia; now Trump says hey why am I spending all this money? You should be spending it; this is insurance; if you don't spend it there's no insurance; and European powers are shocked; suddenly Trump is talking directly to Russians above heads of Ukrainians and Europeans; sometimes he wants to be mediator; Europe is reeling; they don't know how to respond; so Trump went there said no you must spend more; NATO conference okay 5% now but let's say they spend 5% after 10 20 years they'll develop military muscles then they won't have to follow US anymore they'll develop their own policy and Europe will have to live with Russia because Russia's going to be there forever so Trump in a sense is helping crystallize multipolar world because of US relative weakness.
美国似乎正在远离乌克兰局势，在试图达成停火或和平协议之后。你看，特朗普是第一个公开承认美国现在处于多极世界中的美国政府。拜登政府仍然希望成为老大，最强，超级大国。但特朗普政府更现实，因为他们有巨大的预算赤字。他们知道自己的实力有限。所以在乌克兰问题上，他们领导了北约向东扩张。然后他们领导了西方与俄罗斯的对抗。现在特朗普说，嘿，你知道，我为什么要花这么多钱？你们应该花钱。这是一个保险政策。如果你们不花钱，就没有保险。
欧洲国家震惊了。突然特朗普直接与俄罗斯人对话。越过乌克兰人和欧洲人民。有时他想成为调解人。欧洲对此感到震惊。他们不太知道如何回应。所以特朗普去那里说，不，你们必须花更多钱。在北约会议上——好的，现在5%？但假设他们花了5%。10年、20年后，他们将发展军事肌肉。届时他们将不再需要追随美国。他们将开始制定自己的政策。欧洲将不得不与俄罗斯共处，因为俄罗斯将永远存在。所以从某种意义上说，由于美国相对的弱势，特朗普正在帮助多极世界的形成。
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