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哈梅内伊遇刺事件:美以两国在国际政治中逾越新界线

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正文翻译
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead and the international system is entering a far more dangerous phase than many appear willing to acknowledge.
伊朗最高领袖阿里-哈梅内伊遇刺身亡,国际体系正步入一个远比许多人愿意承认的更危险的阶段。

One may hold any opinion about the Islamic Republic of Iran, about its ideology or ruling elite. There are ample grounds for criticism, some severe. Yet one basic fact remains: Ali Khamenei was the legitimate head of a UN member state, recognized by virtually the entire international community, and a lawful participant in international relations. This included ongoing political negotiations with those who ultimately organized the attack, negotiations that continued until the moment the hostilities began.
人们对伊朗伊斯兰共和国、其意识形态或统治集团可以持任何观点。批评的理由是充分的,有些甚至相当尖锐。但一个基本事实依然存在:阿里-哈梅内伊是一个联合国成员国的合法元首,得到几乎整个国际社会的承认,是国际关系中合法的参与者。这包括与最终策划此次袭击方持续进行的政治谈判——这些谈判一直持续到敌对行动开始前的那一刻。

The targeted destruction of a state’s leadership by another state as a matter of deliberate policy marks a fundamentally new stage in world politics. This is not merely another episode of regime change. Even when compared with the brutal ends of Muammar Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein, the difference is stark. Gaddafi was killed by Libyan opponents amid internal collapse; Hussein was executed following a trial conducted by an Iraqi court, however flawed one may judge it.
一个国家将蓄意摧毁另一国领导层作为既定政策,这标志着世界政治进入了一个全新的阶段。这不仅仅是又一次政权更迭事件。即使与穆阿迈尔-卡扎菲或萨达姆-侯赛因的惨烈结局相比,其差异也极为明显。卡扎菲是在国家内部崩溃时被利比亚反对者所杀;侯赛因则是在伊拉克法庭审判后被处决——无论人们认为该审判存在多少缺陷。

Iran’s case is different. It resembles the method Israel has used against the leadership of Hezbollah and Hamas: Direct elimination by external force, without intermediaries, without legal framing, and without the pretense of internal process.
伊朗的情况则截然不同。它类似于以色列针对真主党和哈马斯领导层所采取的手段:通过外部力量直接清除,没有代理人,没有法律框架,也无需伪装成内部程序。

What is being dismantled here are the remaining restraining mechanisms of international relations inherited from earlier eras. Because this erosion has been gradual, many political elites treat these events as sharp but understandable manifestations of geopolitical rivalry. They are mistaken.
正在被瓦解的,是国际关系中承袭自早期时代的剩余约束机制。由于这种侵蚀是渐进的,许多政治精英将这些事件视为地缘政治竞争的尖锐但可理解的表现。他们错了。

Opponents of the US are entitled to draw two clear conclusions. First, negotiating with Washington is pointless. The only viable options are capitulation or preparation for a force-based resolution.
美国的反对者有权得出两个明确的结论。首先,与华盛顿谈判毫无意义。唯一可行的选择只有屈服,或准备以武力方式解决问题。

Second, there is no longer any safe retreat and nothing meaningful left to lose. In these circumstances, any remaining instruments, be they literal or figurative, become legitimate.
其次,不再有任何安全的退路,也不再有任何值得失去的东西。在这种情况下,任何剩余的、无论是字面意义还是象征意义的工具,都变得具有正当性。

These conclusions will hold regardless of how events in Iran unfold in the coming days. Even if some version of the Venezuelan model emerges, a backstage power transfer designed to satisfy all external stakeholders, the damage will not be undone. The method has been demonstrated. The mechanism for forcibly changing governments and bringing them under control has been openly displayed.
无论伊朗未来几天的事态如何发展,这些结论都将成立。即使出现某种版本的委内瑞拉模式——一种旨在满足所有外部利益相关者的幕后权力交接,所造成的损害也无法挽回。方法已被展示。强行更迭政府并将其置于控制之下的机制已公开展现。

Resistance to this model will now harden, not soften. It will become more determined, more desperate, and potentially more destructive.
对这种模式的抵抗将会加强而非减弱。它将变得更加坚定、更加绝望,并可能更具破坏性。

In this context, there is little point in invoking international law, even as irony.
在此背景下,即便是出于讽刺目的,援引国际法也已没有什么意义。
评论翻译
@Sweet Simone
Putin is a coward who doesn’t help even the Russian people, but wants to give his opinion on how Iran should act.
普京就是个懦夫,连俄罗斯自己的人民都不帮衬,却还想对伊朗该怎么行事指手画脚。

They assassinated Iran’s supreme leader, his family, and several Iranian officials… they attacked Iran during negotiations… but Putin demands that Iran not retaliate and return to the negotiating table.
他们刺杀了伊朗最高领袖及其家人,还有多名伊朗官员……还是在谈判期间袭击的伊朗……可普京却要求伊朗不要报复,乖乖回到谈判桌。

Putin acts like a lapdog following Trump, always flattering him and being disrespected, because he has no self-respect and drags the Russians into this slow war because he’s afraid to confront Ukraine forcefully and lose the supposed chance of being accepted by the West.
普京表现得像条跟着特朗普摇尾巴的哈巴狗,总在阿谀奉承还遭人轻蔑,因为他毫无自尊,还把俄罗斯人拖进这场消耗战——他不敢强力对抗乌克兰,生怕失去那点被西方接纳的幻想机会。

Get that through your empty heads… The West hates the Russians and if they could, they would kill you all. If Putin is a coward, don’t demand that Iran be a coward like him, constantly bowing down to Trump.
你们这些榆木脑袋搞清楚……西方恨透了俄罗斯人,但凡有机会定会赶尽杀绝。如果普京是个懦夫,就别要求伊朗也像他那样畏首畏尾,整天对着特朗普卑躬屈膝。

@Patrick Pellerin
Yeah. Putin is old and soft. Time to replace him
是啊。普京已经老了,也变得软弱了。是时候换掉他了。

@David Dunbar
Oooooh, you have a very poor understanding of what Russia and Putin are. Actually, none at all.
哎呀呀,你对俄罗斯和普京的理解简直错得离谱啊。说真的,根本是一窍不通。

@david nichols
We, Americans, have only our own Israel-controlled government to blame when the missiles start coming.
等导弹真打过来的时候,我们美国人只能怪自己那个被以色列操控的政府。

@Ix
True. But also, they’re poisoning you through your food, drinks, «vaccines»… Just about when they’re done using you, you’ll be a huge waisteland, populated by cancer-riddled, opioid addicted zombies. Not to mention fertility drop and autism ultra-rise.
没错。而且,他们还在通过食物、饮料、“疫苗”毒害你……等到他们榨干你的时候,你就会变成一片巨大的荒原,遍布癌症缠身、阿片成瘾的行尸走肉。更别提生育率暴跌和自闭症激增了。

They’re making sure you’re fokd.
他们这是要确保你被彻底搞垮。

@David Dunbar
What is getting…. fokd, is the entire world population. It’s part of the cycle. The dinosaurs got fokd and they didn’t do a damn thing. We shall go the way of the dinosaurs, but we don’ need no stinkin’ asteroid to kill us. We can do it all by ourselves and the universe will not give a $hit.
遭殃的……是全人类。这只是循环的一部分。恐龙当年也遭了殃,可它们屁事没干。我们也会步恐龙的后尘,但我们连颗该死的陨石都不需要。我们自己就能搞砸一切,而宇宙压根儿不会在乎。

@David Dunbar
Missiles aren’t the real threat. Car bombs and drive by shootings are far more likely. Coming to YOUR neighborhood courtesy of YOUR low life, Congressional parasite that is owned by… take a guess.
导弹并非真正的威胁。汽车炸弹和驾车枪击事件要常见得多。它们之所以会出现在你的社区,多亏了你那位卑劣、如同国会寄生虫般的代表,至于他被谁收买了……你猜猜看。

@K McMaugh
They also control the Eps files.
他们还能控制爱泼斯坦文件。

@Patsy Barget
By this we have to assume any US government representative is a legitimate target. Eye for an eye
照此逻辑,我们不得不假定任何美国政府代表都是合理打击目标。以眼还眼。

@David
Let’s hope so
但愿如此

@David Dunbar
That pretty much describes the situation. If I was a government official, I’d be a little concerned. Watch your six.
这描述得挺到位的。我要是政府官员,这会儿该有点紧张了。小心背后暗箭。

@Dohn Joe
Trump is one sick individual. He is kissing Israel’s a$$ because he is afraid to die. Next time the bullet will hit his sick head right in the middle.
特朗普真是个病态的家伙。他拼命巴结以色列,纯粹是怕死。下次子弹就该正中他那颗病态的脑袋了。

@John Holmes
Not that there was any first bullet, just his Hollywood theatrics.
压根就没有什么第一枪,全是他那套好莱坞式的表演。

@Ahmed4
The sad truth.
残酷的真相。

@Richard Hollembeak
What is new the CIA and the Mossad has been making accidents and heart attacks happen for a good while.
CIA和摩萨德搞意外事故和心脏病发作这套把戏已经有些年头了。

@Kamal Md
I don’t understand why Russia and China still sitting far away while Europe is planning an attack on iran . I am sure I am naive who do what understand politics well but still I would like to have some replies about it . As I actually expects both of them to come and help before Europe plans their hit too which will bad for region and create vaccum.
我不明白为什么在欧洲计划攻击伊朗的时候,俄罗斯和中国还远远地坐着不动。我知道我可能太天真了,不太懂政治,但我还是想听听大家的看法。因为我其实期望他们俩能在欧洲动手之前就来帮忙,否则这对地区不利,还会造成权力真空。

@Tippotipo
Iran, a sovereign country, did not ask for direct military assistance from both Russia and China.
伊朗作为一个主权国家,并未向俄罗斯和中国请求直接的军事援助。

@John Holmes
You mean the washed up, Three Stooges in Western Europe? They need the Orange joke’s permission just to do a number 2.
你说的是西欧那帮过气又无能的活宝吗?他们连上个厕所都得先请示那个“小丑总统”批条子。

@Malcolm Powell
Murdering opponents is the new democracy being exported to the world by the tyrants in the USA. You start to wonder what really happened to Jeffrey Epstein. Was he murdered, and by whom?
谋杀政敌是美国暴君们正在向世界输出的新型民主。你开始怀疑杰弗里-爱泼斯坦究竟遭遇了什么。他是被谋杀的吗?又是谁下的手?

@K McMaugh
Ya kno hu has the Eps evidence. Conspiracy theories are that it used to force the attack
你们知道谁手上有爱泼斯坦文件的证据吧。阴谋论的说法是,这玩意儿被用来胁迫特朗普发动了攻击。

@ad d
That’s assuming regime change is successful
这还得假设政权更迭能成功才行。

@Guy
Negotiating with Washington or West Jerusalem as opponents is not only pointless, it is dangerous, this is now obvious – participation in negotiations serves to accomplish assassinations.
与华盛顿或西耶路撒冷作为对手进行谈判不仅毫无意义,而且极其危险,这一点现在已显而易见——参与谈判只会沦为实施暗杀的幌子。

@Patrick Pellerin
Another bla bla bla from Russia. All you can do is talk talk talk. Stop talking, start bombing.
俄罗斯又在满嘴跑火车了。你们除了耍嘴皮子还会干什么。别光说不练,有本事就开打。

@Bruce Saunders
Exactly, however, Russia is holding hands with Trump up Bibi’s rear end.
没错,可俄罗斯正牵着特朗普的手,一块儿往内塔尼亚胡屁股里捅呢。

@Patrick Pellerin
US is full of democrats communists and islamists. In New York, you can hear the islamic prayor five times a day… Why attacking Iran ?
美国到处都是民主党人、共产主义者和伊斯兰主义者。在纽约,你一天能听到五次伊斯兰祷告声……为什么还要去攻打伊朗呢?

@Stan Allan
Typical… No talk at all about the sinking of the Lincoln carrier last night.. All Jazeera briefly mentioned it but quickly silenced… So expected, but it sunk last night as six missils hit it dead center…it is suspicion also tgevits destroyer escort are in trouble, but no way to confirm thus
果然不出所料…昨晚林肯号航母沉没的事压根没人提。半岛电视台简单提了一嘴就立马消音了…早猜到会这样,但昨晚它确实沉了,六枚导弹直接命中核心区域…而且有传言说它的护航驱逐舰也出问题了,不过目前没法证实。

@Bruce Saunders
Iran must build hypersonic nukes – and fast. No way around it. Increase the range of your weapons to ICBM range as the United States of Israel must be within reach. North Korea and China needs to provide the blueprints and Iranian scientists can do the work. Enrichment to 90 plus percent Iran. Build the bomb Iran and as many as possible. Negotions are permanently over with all Western actors.
伊朗必须研制高超音速核武器——而且要快。这事没得商量。把武器射程提升到洲际导弹级别,必须确保能覆盖“以色列合众国”(讽刺说法,即美国)。朝鲜和中国需要提供技术图纸,伊朗科学家有能力完成后续工作。伊朗,把浓缩铀纯度提到90%以上。伊朗,造出核弹来,越多越好。与所有西方国家的谈判已经永久性结束了。

@monicker surname
Why not support the iranian people rather than Islamic fundamentalist? Unless you’re one of them.
为什么不支持伊朗人民,反而支持伊斯兰原教旨主义者?除非你就是他们中的一员。

@David
Maybe the US government and and all the western elites should stop bombing countries for their own interests and just leave them alone for once. The threat the Jews and the rest of the zionists are talking about is all fabricated and created to make the stupid population believe Iran is going to kill every one. The problem is Israel and always is, and the Jew owned west is no better.
也许美国政府以及所有西方精英们该停止为自身利益轰炸别国,哪怕就消停这么一回。犹太人和其余犹太复国主义者所鼓吹的威胁全是捏造出来的,就是为了让愚蠢的民众相信伊朗要杀光所有人。问题始终出在以色列身上,而受犹太势力操控的西方世界也好不到哪儿去。

@Patrick Pellerin
If you don`t act Russia, you are next. And China too. Multipolar world will be terminated.
如果你不采取行动对付俄罗斯,下一个就是你。中国也会被波及。多极世界将被终结。

@EdG Gullion
Ban Islam. Save the World.
禁止伊斯兰教,拯救世界。

@Michel Fortin
Hezbolla just joined the fight. Next the Houtis , Iraq and more forces against the crazy zio pedophiles baby killers. Turkey should join NOW.
真主党刚刚参战了。接下来是胡塞武装、伊拉克,还有更多力量会加入对抗这些疯狂的锡安主义恋童癖婴儿杀手。土耳其现在就该加入。

Americans couldn’t handle a huge front like that. Cos Turkey is next if the jews win this battle.
美国人可应付不了这么大规模的战线。因为要是犹太人赢了这场仗,土耳其就是下一个目标。

@monicker surname
Come get some loser! Did you know Israel has 850 thousand missiles. They haven’t used even one. If your goal is to kill Jews you will be signing your own death warrant.
来领死吧,废物!知道以色列有85万枚导弹吗?他们连一发都还没用呢。要是你们的目标是杀犹太人,那等于给自己签了死亡令。

@Oleg O.
Way to go, President Trump! Congratulations to him, Israel, and all of the brave men and women in the armed forces who helped to bring about the end of this terrible animal.
特朗普总统,干得漂亮!祝贺他、祝贺以色列,也祝贺所有为此付出努力的英勇军人们,正是他们合力终结了这头可怕的野兽。

@Jalid Hussein
Yep. They killed an eighty five (85) years old man and 100 little girls.
是啊。他们杀了一位八十五岁的老人和一百个小女孩。

@John Holmes
Yeah, trump seems to have some sort of sick passion for little ones
是啊,特朗普似乎对小孩子有种病态的癖好

@David Dunbar
That’s bullshit. Don’t go there, it makes you look stupid.
这简直是胡扯。别扯那方面了,显得你像个傻瓜。

@Roter
What about all the Epstein class people in the West? From Netanyahu over Trump to Macron, Starmer and Merz, and certainly a whole lot more of these figures, we all have to suffer. The people in the West want to be free as well!
那西方那些爱泼斯坦圈子里的权贵呢?从内塔尼亚胡、特朗普到马克龙、斯塔默和默茨,肯定还有一大帮这类人物,我们都得受他们摆布。西方民众也想获得自由啊!
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