伊美停火协议背后的那些秘密
正文翻译
This was always about Civilization.
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” History will register it with a gaze as pitiless as the Sun. An astonishing barbarian imprimatur, courtesy of the President of the United States, via a social media post.
In a nutshell, this was a trashy “civilization” that gave the world the Big Mac threatening to wipe out an ancient civilization that gave the world algebra; influenced art, science, governance in unparalleled ways; produced stars from Cyrus the Great to Avicenna, from Omar Khayyam to poet supreme Jalaladdin Rumi; developed serial, sublime gardens, carpets, architectural wonders and philosophical and ethical frxworks.
这始终关乎文明。
“今晚，一整个文明将要消亡，再也无法复生。”历史将以如太阳般冷酷无情的目光注视并记录下这一切。拜美国总统的一条社交媒体帖子所赐，一种令人震惊的野蛮授权被公之于众。
简而言之，这是一个孕育了“巨无霸”汉堡的低劣“文明”，正威胁着要抹除一个曾为世界贡献了代数学的古老文明；那个文明曾以无与伦比的方式影响了艺术、科学和国家治理；它孕育了从居鲁士大帝到阿维森纳，从奥马尔·海亚姆到至高诗人贾拉勒丁·鲁米的无数璀璨星辰；它创造了连绵不断的宏伟园林、地毯、建筑奇迹，以及深厚的哲学与伦理体系。
Crucially, there was not a single peep about this Barbaria outburst from the political leadership of the entire “civilized” collective West, not even feigning outrage, once again proving their absolute, irreversible moral and political bankruptcy.
Iranians answered Barbaria in kind. Over 14 million people registered to form human walls around their power stations all across the nation, simultaneously protecting their livelihood and confronting head on the firepower of the Epstein Syndicate.
As a hair-raising cliffhanger approached, the Baboon of Barbaria pivoted into – what else – TACO: the LEGO guys immortalized it.
There’s absolutely no way that Pakistan could have offered “guarantees” to Iran that a ceasefire was the way for the war to eventually end. As confirmed by diplomatic sources, what really happened is that Beijing, at the 11th moment, placed itself as the guarantor, assuring Tehran that the US would accept at least some of Iran’s demands included in its 10-point plan.
至关重要的一点是，对于这种野蛮行径的爆发，整个“文明”的西方集体领导层竟然没有发出哪怕一声低语，甚至连装模作样的愤慨都没有，这再次证明了他们在道德和政治上绝对且不可逆转的破产。
伊朗人对这种野蛮行径给予了对等的回应。全国有超过1400万人登记，在遍布全国的发电站周围筑起人墙，在保护自身生计的同时，正面迎击来自“爱泼斯坦集团”的火力。
当那个令人毛骨悚然的千钧一发时刻逼近时，“野蛮之地的狒狒”突然转向了——还能是什么呢——TACO（塔可，意指特朗普）：乐高小人们让这一时刻成为了永恒。
巴基斯坦绝无可能向伊朗提供所谓的“保证”，称停火是战争最终结束的途径。据外交渠道证实，真实情况是北京在最后一刻挺身而出担任保证人，向德黑兰承诺，美国将至少接受伊朗在其“十点计划”中提出的部分要求。
That was further confirmed by Iranian ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rhamani Fazili. The negotiations start this Friday in Islamabad.
POTUS, the Drooling Baboon of Barbaria, confronted with the inevitable, dire consequences of his own strategic blunder, used Pakistan for his off-ramp. That was confirmed by another epic blunder by the Pakistani Prime Minister himself: he forgot to remove the header of the tweet/X post drafted by the White House for him to publish.
The current Pakistani regime – de facto led by Field Marshall Asim Munir, who has Trump on speed dial – may have profited, and will continue to geopolitically profit, from a unique status: a Muslim nuclear nation with a significant Shi’ite minority; good relations with the GCC; neighbor of Iran, enjoying good relations; signed a defense pact with Saudi Arabia; a strategic partner of China; no US bases on its soil.
这得到了伊朗驻华大使阿卜杜勒-雷扎·拉马尼·法兹利（Abdolreza Rhamani Fazili）的进一步证实。谈判将于本周五在伊斯兰堡开始。
美国总统——那个来自“野蛮之地”且流着口水的狒狒——在面对其自身战略失误所导致的必然且惨痛的后果时，利用巴基斯坦作为他撤出的台阶。巴基斯坦总理本人的另一个史诗级失误也印证了这一点：他在发布推文（X帖子）时，竟然忘了删除白宫为他代笔的文稿页眉。
现任巴基斯坦政权——实际上由与特朗普私交甚笃的阿西姆·穆尼尔元帅领导——已经并将继续从其独特的地位中获取地缘政治利益：它是一个拥有大量什叶派少数群体的穆斯林核国家；与海合会关系良好；作为伊朗邻国且与之维持睦邻关系；与沙特阿拉伯签署了防御协议；是中国战略合作伙伴；且其领土上没有美国军事基地。
But Islamabad was always a mere go-between, never the architect of any “mediation”. Whatever obfuscation coming from the White House, it was China that had to clinch the lineaments of a possible détente.
但伊斯兰堡始终只是一个传声筒，绝非任何“调解”方案的操盘手。无论白宫如何故弄玄虚，最终定下局势缓和基调的，终究是中国。
The Epstein Syndicate begs for a break
We had arrived to a point where the death cult in West Asia was being crushed simultaneously by Iran and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon; no matter the avalanche of spin, their cries begging for help played a significant part into Trump’s pivoting to a ceasefire.
The Epstein Syndicate as a whole begged for it. Nothing to do with geopolitics, but with operational hell: the Empire of Chaos has run out of military resources.
The ultimate give away was when the USS Tripoli retreated – under fire – to the depths of the southern Indian Ocean, complete with its 2,500 Marines on board. That meant the US Navy out of the war theater – except for subs with Tomahawks, roughly half of which go off-target with staggering (non)precision.
And the problems are far from over. Financial hell looms, whatever is decided in Islamabad and beyond, with $10 trillion in Treasuries to rollover in 2026. And the petrodollar is fast on the way to the dustbin of History.
“爱泼斯坦集团”渴求喘息之机
局势已经发展到了这样的地步：位于西亚的“死亡教派”正同时遭到伊朗和黎巴嫩南部真主党的重创；无论舆论如何天花乱坠地粉饰，他们发出的求救呐喊在特朗普转向停火的决策中起到了重要作用。
整个“爱泼斯坦集团”都在为此祈求。这与地缘政治无关，而是源于行动上的灾难：这个“混乱帝国”的军事资源已经枯竭。
最明显的迹象是“的黎波里号”（USS Tripoli）两栖攻击舰在炮火下撤向了南印度洋深处，舰上载有2500名海军陆战队员。这意味着美国海军已退出战区——除了那些携带“战斧”导弹的潜艇，而这些导弹中大约有一半会以惊人的“（不）精确度”偏离目标。
而且问题远未结束。无论伊斯兰堡及之后的谈判结果如何，金融地狱都已近在咫尺——2026年将有10万亿美元的国债需要展期。同时，石油美元体系正加速走向历史的垃圾堆。
Enter, once again, the demented death cult.
No one should ever forget. The Epstein Syndicate is non-agreement capable. And the death cult doesn’t do ceasefires: it does at best loopholes that allow it to keep killing everyone in sight.
The writing is already on the wall. If the death cult blows up the ceasefire – which is already the case – Iran and Hezbollah will counterpunch, massively, without attacking American assets.
Still, it’s way too early to affirm that the Baboon of Barbaria lost his war under every possible metric: moral; legal; political; economic; strategic.
After all, the Empire of Chaos will always be, intrinsically, non-agreement capable, especially when the track record tells of two attacks on Iran back to back during diplomatic negotiations, killing everyone from Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to scores of possible negotiators.
The Big Picture song remains the same (sing it!): this is a war till the end against the Top Three proponents of a multipolar world, Iran, China and Russia.
于是，那个疯狂的死亡教派再次登场。
任何人都不应忘记：爱泼斯坦集团是不具备履约能力的。而死亡教派从不接受停火，他们顶多是制造漏洞，以便能继续杀戮视线范围内的每一个人。
败局已定。如果死亡教派破坏停火——而事实也正是如此——伊朗和真主党将发起大规模反击，但不会攻击美国的资产。
尽管如此，现在断言那个“野蛮之地的狒狒”已在道德、法律、政治、经济和战略等所有可能的衡量维度下输掉了战争，还为时尚早。
毕竟，这个“混乱帝国”从本质上讲永远不具备履行协议的能力，特别是其过往记录显示，它曾在外交谈判期间接连两次攻击伊朗，杀害了从最高领袖哈梅内伊到数十名潜在谈判代表在内的所有人。
宏观大局的主旋律始终如一（大家唱起来吧！）：这是一场针对多极化世界三大中坚力量——伊朗、中国和俄罗斯——的殊死决战，不死不休。
China’s power play, plus a few established facts
Before the ceasefire, China was getting 1.2 million barrels of Iranian oil a day, essentially via 26 ghost fleet tankers with their transponders in the dark, with payment settled in the Strait of Hormuz toll booth in yuan through CIPS. All that was bypassing SWIFT, sanctions, the petrollar, and Western insurance.
Talk about a new, alternative payment settlement system de facto implemented in the most crucial chokepoint on the planet.
This complex shadow energy architecture remains unaffected under the ceasefire – assuming it holds. But the key point is that China gets an extra breather: the ominous threat to finish off with every export of Iranian oil, post the Barbaria-declared Power plant Day cliffhanger, seems to have disappeared. That explains the rationale behind China’s last minute guarantee to Iran.
中国的权力博弈，以及一些既定事实
在停火之前，中国每天获取120万桶伊朗石油，这些石油基本上是通过26艘关闭了应答器的“影子船队”油轮运输的，并利用人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS），在霍尔木兹海峡的“收费站”直接以人民币结算。这一切都绕过了SWIFT系统、各项制裁、石油美元以及西方的保险体系。
这就是在地球上最关键的咽喉要道上，事实上已经实施的一套全新的替代性支付结算体系。
这种复杂的影子能源架构在停火期间依然不受影响——前提是假设停火协议能够维持。但核心点在于，中国得到了额外的喘息机会：在那个由“野蛮之地”宣布的“电厂日”惊魂时刻过后，彻底终结伊朗石油出口的险恶威胁似乎已经消失了。这解释了中国为何会在最后一刻选择为伊朗提供担保。
Now compare it with the Empire of Chaos’s avowed “goals”: provoke regime change; get the enriched uranium; destroy the missile program; destroy Iran’s ability to project power. They all turned into an epic strategic blunder, culminating with the new status of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran and Oman will coordinate the toll booth on every ship crossing the Strait during the ceasefire – and certainly beyond, in a detailed juridical frxwork. American ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz after paying their toll in yuan – there’s hardly anything more poetically intoxicating, in an Irony of History sense.
Still, it’s clear the Empire of Chaos is playing for time – even as Iran retains the initiative. This is the key take away from the Supreme National Security Council in Iran:
“It has been decided at the highest level that Iran will conduct two weeks of negotiations in Islamabad based solely on these principles [the Iranian 10-points]. This does not mean the war is over; Iran will only accept the end of the war once these principles are confirmed in detail.”
现在，将此与“混乱帝国”公然宣称的“目标”相对比：煽动政权更迭；夺取浓缩铀；摧毁导弹计划；剥夺伊朗的实力投送能力。这一切都演变成了一场史诗级的战略失误，并最终以霍尔木兹海峡的新现状告终。
在停火期间——以及此后必将建立的详细法律框架下——伊朗和阿曼将协调对每一艘穿越海峡的船只设立“收费站”。美国船只在支付了人民币通行费后才得以穿越霍尔木兹海峡——从历史讽刺的角度来看，简直没有比这更具诗意的快感了。
尽管如此，显而易见的是，“混乱帝国”正试图拖延时间——哪怕伊朗依然掌握着主动权。这是伊朗最高国家安全委员会传达的核心信息：
“最高层已决定，伊朗将完全基于这些原则（伊朗的十点计划）在伊斯兰堡进行为期两周的谈判。这并不意味着战争已经结束；只有在这些原则得到详细确认后，伊朗才会接受战争的终止。”
Let’s briefly review the 10 points – which, in theory, were “accepted” by Trump:
Commitment to non-aggression;
Preservation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz;
Agreement on uranium enrichment;
Cancellation of all primary sanctions;
Cancellation of all secondary sanctions;
Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions;
Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions;
Payment of compensation to Iran;
Withdrawal of American combat forces from the region;
Cessation of war on all fronts, including the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
让我们简要回顾一下这十点计划——理论上，这些内容已被特朗普“接受”：
承诺互不侵犯；
保留伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权；
达成铀浓缩协议；
取消所有一级制裁；
取消所有二级制裁；
终止所有联合国安理会相关决议；
终止所有国际原子能机构（IAEA）理事会相关决议；
向伊朗支付赔偿金；
美国作战部队撤出该地区；
全线停战，包括停止针对黎巴嫩真主党的战争。
There’s no way Iran will compromise on nearly all of these points. Payment of compensation might be metastasized into income from the Strait of Hormuz toll booth. But sanctions relief is not gonna happen; the US Congress will never allow it. Guarantee by the US they will not attack Iran again does not even qualify as a joke. Moreover, the Empire of Chaos simply cannot guarantee anything for Gaza or Lebanon.
Still, that is an extremely risky play for Iran, and a huge test for China as the major guarantor. Iran has suffered horrendous damages – especially in its petrochemical industry. Even with a lot of Chinese investment, it will take years to recover.
The Three Stooges may go to Islamabad this Friday. Curly: Vance. Shifty: Witkoff. Mo: Kushner. But Iran – via FM Araghchi – will only seriously talk to one of them: Curly.
So Civilization survives – for now. A few facts too. Fact One: the US is not a superpower anymore. Fact Two: Iran is back as one of the world’s top powers. Fact Three: Most of the gutless Gulf petro-monarchies will end up kicking out US military bases for good. Fact Four: Qatar and Oman will work out a security arrangement with Iran.
The main imperative remains – and that concerns the whole planet: how to find a cure for that cancer in West Asia.
针对这些要点，伊朗几乎没有任何妥协的余地。“战争赔偿”可能会变相转化为霍尔木兹海峡“收费站”的过路费收入。但取消制裁绝无可能实现，美国国会绝不会放行。至于美国承诺不再攻击伊朗，这种话甚至连笑话都称不上。更何况，这个“混乱帝国”根本无法对加沙或黎巴嫩的局势做出任何实质性保证。
尽管如此，这对于伊朗而言依然是一场风险极高的博弈，对作为主要保证人的中国来说也是一次巨大的考验。伊朗已经遭受了惨重的损失，尤其是在石化产业领域。即便有来自中国的大量投资，也需要数年时间才能恢复元气。
“三个臭皮匠”本周五可能会前往伊斯兰堡。他们分别是——“卷毛”：万斯；“狡猾”：威特科夫；“莫”：库什纳。但伊朗方面（通过外长阿拉格齐）只会认真对待其中一人：“卷毛”万斯。
于是，文明得以幸存——至少目前如此。同时也确立了一些事实。事实一：美国已不再是超级大国。事实二：伊朗重新跻身世界顶尖强国之列。事实三：大多数软弱的海湾石油君主国最终将彻底驱逐美国军事基地。事实四：卡塔尔和阿曼将与伊朗建立安全安排。
首要任务依然存在，且关乎整个星球：那便是如何根除西亚地区的那个“肿瘤”。
（完）
This was always about Civilization.
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” History will register it with a gaze as pitiless as the Sun. An astonishing barbarian imprimatur, courtesy of the President of the United States, via a social media post.
In a nutshell, this was a trashy “civilization” that gave the world the Big Mac threatening to wipe out an ancient civilization that gave the world algebra; influenced art, science, governance in unparalleled ways; produced stars from Cyrus the Great to Avicenna, from Omar Khayyam to poet supreme Jalaladdin Rumi; developed serial, sublime gardens, carpets, architectural wonders and philosophical and ethical frxworks.
这始终关乎文明。
“今晚，一整个文明将要消亡，再也无法复生。”历史将以如太阳般冷酷无情的目光注视并记录下这一切。拜美国总统的一条社交媒体帖子所赐，一种令人震惊的野蛮授权被公之于众。
简而言之，这是一个孕育了“巨无霸”汉堡的低劣“文明”，正威胁着要抹除一个曾为世界贡献了代数学的古老文明；那个文明曾以无与伦比的方式影响了艺术、科学和国家治理；它孕育了从居鲁士大帝到阿维森纳，从奥马尔·海亚姆到至高诗人贾拉勒丁·鲁米的无数璀璨星辰；它创造了连绵不断的宏伟园林、地毯、建筑奇迹，以及深厚的哲学与伦理体系。
Crucially, there was not a single peep about this Barbaria outburst from the political leadership of the entire “civilized” collective West, not even feigning outrage, once again proving their absolute, irreversible moral and political bankruptcy.
Iranians answered Barbaria in kind. Over 14 million people registered to form human walls around their power stations all across the nation, simultaneously protecting their livelihood and confronting head on the firepower of the Epstein Syndicate.
As a hair-raising cliffhanger approached, the Baboon of Barbaria pivoted into – what else – TACO: the LEGO guys immortalized it.
There’s absolutely no way that Pakistan could have offered “guarantees” to Iran that a ceasefire was the way for the war to eventually end. As confirmed by diplomatic sources, what really happened is that Beijing, at the 11th moment, placed itself as the guarantor, assuring Tehran that the US would accept at least some of Iran’s demands included in its 10-point plan.
至关重要的一点是，对于这种野蛮行径的爆发，整个“文明”的西方集体领导层竟然没有发出哪怕一声低语，甚至连装模作样的愤慨都没有，这再次证明了他们在道德和政治上绝对且不可逆转的破产。
伊朗人对这种野蛮行径给予了对等的回应。全国有超过1400万人登记，在遍布全国的发电站周围筑起人墙，在保护自身生计的同时，正面迎击来自“爱泼斯坦集团”的火力。
当那个令人毛骨悚然的千钧一发时刻逼近时，“野蛮之地的狒狒”突然转向了——还能是什么呢——TACO（塔可，意指特朗普）：乐高小人们让这一时刻成为了永恒。
巴基斯坦绝无可能向伊朗提供所谓的“保证”，称停火是战争最终结束的途径。据外交渠道证实，真实情况是北京在最后一刻挺身而出担任保证人，向德黑兰承诺，美国将至少接受伊朗在其“十点计划”中提出的部分要求。
That was further confirmed by Iranian ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rhamani Fazili. The negotiations start this Friday in Islamabad.
POTUS, the Drooling Baboon of Barbaria, confronted with the inevitable, dire consequences of his own strategic blunder, used Pakistan for his off-ramp. That was confirmed by another epic blunder by the Pakistani Prime Minister himself: he forgot to remove the header of the tweet/X post drafted by the White House for him to publish.
The current Pakistani regime – de facto led by Field Marshall Asim Munir, who has Trump on speed dial – may have profited, and will continue to geopolitically profit, from a unique status: a Muslim nuclear nation with a significant Shi’ite minority; good relations with the GCC; neighbor of Iran, enjoying good relations; signed a defense pact with Saudi Arabia; a strategic partner of China; no US bases on its soil.
这得到了伊朗驻华大使阿卜杜勒-雷扎·拉马尼·法兹利（Abdolreza Rhamani Fazili）的进一步证实。谈判将于本周五在伊斯兰堡开始。
美国总统——那个来自“野蛮之地”且流着口水的狒狒——在面对其自身战略失误所导致的必然且惨痛的后果时，利用巴基斯坦作为他撤出的台阶。巴基斯坦总理本人的另一个史诗级失误也印证了这一点：他在发布推文（X帖子）时，竟然忘了删除白宫为他代笔的文稿页眉。
现任巴基斯坦政权——实际上由与特朗普私交甚笃的阿西姆·穆尼尔元帅领导——已经并将继续从其独特的地位中获取地缘政治利益：它是一个拥有大量什叶派少数群体的穆斯林核国家；与海合会关系良好；作为伊朗邻国且与之维持睦邻关系；与沙特阿拉伯签署了防御协议；是中国战略合作伙伴；且其领土上没有美国军事基地。
But Islamabad was always a mere go-between, never the architect of any “mediation”. Whatever obfuscation coming from the White House, it was China that had to clinch the lineaments of a possible détente.
但伊斯兰堡始终只是一个传声筒，绝非任何“调解”方案的操盘手。无论白宫如何故弄玄虚，最终定下局势缓和基调的，终究是中国。
The Epstein Syndicate begs for a break
We had arrived to a point where the death cult in West Asia was being crushed simultaneously by Iran and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon; no matter the avalanche of spin, their cries begging for help played a significant part into Trump’s pivoting to a ceasefire.
The Epstein Syndicate as a whole begged for it. Nothing to do with geopolitics, but with operational hell: the Empire of Chaos has run out of military resources.
The ultimate give away was when the USS Tripoli retreated – under fire – to the depths of the southern Indian Ocean, complete with its 2,500 Marines on board. That meant the US Navy out of the war theater – except for subs with Tomahawks, roughly half of which go off-target with staggering (non)precision.
And the problems are far from over. Financial hell looms, whatever is decided in Islamabad and beyond, with $10 trillion in Treasuries to rollover in 2026. And the petrodollar is fast on the way to the dustbin of History.
“爱泼斯坦集团”渴求喘息之机
局势已经发展到了这样的地步：位于西亚的“死亡教派”正同时遭到伊朗和黎巴嫩南部真主党的重创；无论舆论如何天花乱坠地粉饰，他们发出的求救呐喊在特朗普转向停火的决策中起到了重要作用。
整个“爱泼斯坦集团”都在为此祈求。这与地缘政治无关，而是源于行动上的灾难：这个“混乱帝国”的军事资源已经枯竭。
最明显的迹象是“的黎波里号”（USS Tripoli）两栖攻击舰在炮火下撤向了南印度洋深处，舰上载有2500名海军陆战队员。这意味着美国海军已退出战区——除了那些携带“战斧”导弹的潜艇，而这些导弹中大约有一半会以惊人的“（不）精确度”偏离目标。
而且问题远未结束。无论伊斯兰堡及之后的谈判结果如何，金融地狱都已近在咫尺——2026年将有10万亿美元的国债需要展期。同时，石油美元体系正加速走向历史的垃圾堆。
Enter, once again, the demented death cult.
No one should ever forget. The Epstein Syndicate is non-agreement capable. And the death cult doesn’t do ceasefires: it does at best loopholes that allow it to keep killing everyone in sight.
The writing is already on the wall. If the death cult blows up the ceasefire – which is already the case – Iran and Hezbollah will counterpunch, massively, without attacking American assets.
Still, it’s way too early to affirm that the Baboon of Barbaria lost his war under every possible metric: moral; legal; political; economic; strategic.
After all, the Empire of Chaos will always be, intrinsically, non-agreement capable, especially when the track record tells of two attacks on Iran back to back during diplomatic negotiations, killing everyone from Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to scores of possible negotiators.
The Big Picture song remains the same (sing it!): this is a war till the end against the Top Three proponents of a multipolar world, Iran, China and Russia.
于是，那个疯狂的死亡教派再次登场。
任何人都不应忘记：爱泼斯坦集团是不具备履约能力的。而死亡教派从不接受停火，他们顶多是制造漏洞，以便能继续杀戮视线范围内的每一个人。
败局已定。如果死亡教派破坏停火——而事实也正是如此——伊朗和真主党将发起大规模反击，但不会攻击美国的资产。
尽管如此，现在断言那个“野蛮之地的狒狒”已在道德、法律、政治、经济和战略等所有可能的衡量维度下输掉了战争，还为时尚早。
毕竟，这个“混乱帝国”从本质上讲永远不具备履行协议的能力，特别是其过往记录显示，它曾在外交谈判期间接连两次攻击伊朗，杀害了从最高领袖哈梅内伊到数十名潜在谈判代表在内的所有人。
宏观大局的主旋律始终如一（大家唱起来吧！）：这是一场针对多极化世界三大中坚力量——伊朗、中国和俄罗斯——的殊死决战，不死不休。
China’s power play, plus a few established facts
Before the ceasefire, China was getting 1.2 million barrels of Iranian oil a day, essentially via 26 ghost fleet tankers with their transponders in the dark, with payment settled in the Strait of Hormuz toll booth in yuan through CIPS. All that was bypassing SWIFT, sanctions, the petrollar, and Western insurance.
Talk about a new, alternative payment settlement system de facto implemented in the most crucial chokepoint on the planet.
This complex shadow energy architecture remains unaffected under the ceasefire – assuming it holds. But the key point is that China gets an extra breather: the ominous threat to finish off with every export of Iranian oil, post the Barbaria-declared Power plant Day cliffhanger, seems to have disappeared. That explains the rationale behind China’s last minute guarantee to Iran.
中国的权力博弈，以及一些既定事实
在停火之前，中国每天获取120万桶伊朗石油，这些石油基本上是通过26艘关闭了应答器的“影子船队”油轮运输的，并利用人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS），在霍尔木兹海峡的“收费站”直接以人民币结算。这一切都绕过了SWIFT系统、各项制裁、石油美元以及西方的保险体系。
这就是在地球上最关键的咽喉要道上，事实上已经实施的一套全新的替代性支付结算体系。
这种复杂的影子能源架构在停火期间依然不受影响——前提是假设停火协议能够维持。但核心点在于，中国得到了额外的喘息机会：在那个由“野蛮之地”宣布的“电厂日”惊魂时刻过后，彻底终结伊朗石油出口的险恶威胁似乎已经消失了。这解释了中国为何会在最后一刻选择为伊朗提供担保。
Now compare it with the Empire of Chaos’s avowed “goals”: provoke regime change; get the enriched uranium; destroy the missile program; destroy Iran’s ability to project power. They all turned into an epic strategic blunder, culminating with the new status of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran and Oman will coordinate the toll booth on every ship crossing the Strait during the ceasefire – and certainly beyond, in a detailed juridical frxwork. American ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz after paying their toll in yuan – there’s hardly anything more poetically intoxicating, in an Irony of History sense.
Still, it’s clear the Empire of Chaos is playing for time – even as Iran retains the initiative. This is the key take away from the Supreme National Security Council in Iran:
“It has been decided at the highest level that Iran will conduct two weeks of negotiations in Islamabad based solely on these principles [the Iranian 10-points]. This does not mean the war is over; Iran will only accept the end of the war once these principles are confirmed in detail.”
现在，将此与“混乱帝国”公然宣称的“目标”相对比：煽动政权更迭；夺取浓缩铀；摧毁导弹计划；剥夺伊朗的实力投送能力。这一切都演变成了一场史诗级的战略失误，并最终以霍尔木兹海峡的新现状告终。
在停火期间——以及此后必将建立的详细法律框架下——伊朗和阿曼将协调对每一艘穿越海峡的船只设立“收费站”。美国船只在支付了人民币通行费后才得以穿越霍尔木兹海峡——从历史讽刺的角度来看，简直没有比这更具诗意的快感了。
尽管如此，显而易见的是，“混乱帝国”正试图拖延时间——哪怕伊朗依然掌握着主动权。这是伊朗最高国家安全委员会传达的核心信息：
“最高层已决定，伊朗将完全基于这些原则（伊朗的十点计划）在伊斯兰堡进行为期两周的谈判。这并不意味着战争已经结束；只有在这些原则得到详细确认后，伊朗才会接受战争的终止。”
Let’s briefly review the 10 points – which, in theory, were “accepted” by Trump:
Commitment to non-aggression;
Preservation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz;
Agreement on uranium enrichment;
Cancellation of all primary sanctions;
Cancellation of all secondary sanctions;
Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions;
Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions;
Payment of compensation to Iran;
Withdrawal of American combat forces from the region;
Cessation of war on all fronts, including the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
让我们简要回顾一下这十点计划——理论上，这些内容已被特朗普“接受”：
承诺互不侵犯；
保留伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权；
达成铀浓缩协议；
取消所有一级制裁；
取消所有二级制裁；
终止所有联合国安理会相关决议；
终止所有国际原子能机构（IAEA）理事会相关决议；
向伊朗支付赔偿金；
美国作战部队撤出该地区；
全线停战，包括停止针对黎巴嫩真主党的战争。
There’s no way Iran will compromise on nearly all of these points. Payment of compensation might be metastasized into income from the Strait of Hormuz toll booth. But sanctions relief is not gonna happen; the US Congress will never allow it. Guarantee by the US they will not attack Iran again does not even qualify as a joke. Moreover, the Empire of Chaos simply cannot guarantee anything for Gaza or Lebanon.
Still, that is an extremely risky play for Iran, and a huge test for China as the major guarantor. Iran has suffered horrendous damages – especially in its petrochemical industry. Even with a lot of Chinese investment, it will take years to recover.
The Three Stooges may go to Islamabad this Friday. Curly: Vance. Shifty: Witkoff. Mo: Kushner. But Iran – via FM Araghchi – will only seriously talk to one of them: Curly.
So Civilization survives – for now. A few facts too. Fact One: the US is not a superpower anymore. Fact Two: Iran is back as one of the world’s top powers. Fact Three: Most of the gutless Gulf petro-monarchies will end up kicking out US military bases for good. Fact Four: Qatar and Oman will work out a security arrangement with Iran.
The main imperative remains – and that concerns the whole planet: how to find a cure for that cancer in West Asia.
针对这些要点，伊朗几乎没有任何妥协的余地。“战争赔偿”可能会变相转化为霍尔木兹海峡“收费站”的过路费收入。但取消制裁绝无可能实现，美国国会绝不会放行。至于美国承诺不再攻击伊朗，这种话甚至连笑话都称不上。更何况，这个“混乱帝国”根本无法对加沙或黎巴嫩的局势做出任何实质性保证。
尽管如此，这对于伊朗而言依然是一场风险极高的博弈，对作为主要保证人的中国来说也是一次巨大的考验。伊朗已经遭受了惨重的损失，尤其是在石化产业领域。即便有来自中国的大量投资，也需要数年时间才能恢复元气。
“三个臭皮匠”本周五可能会前往伊斯兰堡。他们分别是——“卷毛”：万斯；“狡猾”：威特科夫；“莫”：库什纳。但伊朗方面（通过外长阿拉格齐）只会认真对待其中一人：“卷毛”万斯。
于是，文明得以幸存——至少目前如此。同时也确立了一些事实。事实一：美国已不再是超级大国。事实二：伊朗重新跻身世界顶尖强国之列。事实三：大多数软弱的海湾石油君主国最终将彻底驱逐美国军事基地。事实四：卡塔尔和阿曼将与伊朗建立安全安排。
首要任务依然存在，且关乎整个星球：那便是如何根除西亚地区的那个“肿瘤”。
（完）
评论翻译
Aldonichts says:
In conclusion, Father Escobar, we must thank China for its courageous intervention. I think you mention your sponsors more than eight times… Without China, Iran would have been doomed, wouldn’t it?
What a difference from Simplicius’s last article on the same topic.
总而言之，埃斯科巴“神父”，我们必须感谢中国的勇敢干预。我想你提到你的“金主”已经不下八次了……如果没有中国，伊朗恐怕早就走投无路了，不是吗？
这与 Simplicius 针对同一话题发表的上一篇文章相比，反差可真够大的。
Mr-Chow-Mein says:
Iran has a small window to assemble a number of nuclear weapons…they better use it because this war isn’t over in a long shot.
These psychopaths will never stop until either they’re ash or Iran is.
It’s all about world domination and a small clique who wants it. These “elite” are untouched by any blowback from their actions so they’re quite willing to do horrendous things…until these peoples families are touched they will continue to do unspeakable things to others for their obxtives because they’re psychopaths.
伊朗现在有一段短暂的窗口期来组装一定数量的核武器……他们最好利用好这段时间，因为这场战争远未结束。
这些疯子绝不会罢手，除非他们自己灰飞烟灭，或者伊朗化为焦土。
这一切的本质都是为了世界霸权，以及那个渴望霸权的小圈子。这些所谓的“精英”从不曾受到其行为后果的波及，因此他们完全不介意干出伤天害理的勾当……除非哪天报应落到他们家属头上，否则为了达成目标，这些丧心病狂的疯子会继续对他人施加难以言状的暴行。
Alex D says:
This nuclear weapons canard is very foolish but refuses to die.
These weapons have been around for 80 years. None have been used in conflict since they were first available in 1945. Why? Because it is impossible to do so. The implications are too dire.
Nuclear weapons do nothing. Israel has them. Has that stopped Iran from shooting missiles at the Israelis? Has that stopped Hezbollah from taking out Israeli soldiers and tanks?
The old ayatollah was right about nuclear weapons: they are immoral and useless.
Now if only the armchair geopolitical analysts would understand.
关于核武器的这个无稽之谈非常愚蠢，但却挥之不去。
这类武器已经存在了80年。自1945年问世以来，它们从未在任何冲突中使用过。为什么？因为根本无法使用，其后果实在太惨重了。
核武器起不到任何实质作用。以色列拥有核武器，但这阻止了伊朗向其发射导弹吗？阻止了真主党歼灭以色列士兵和坦克吗？
那位老阿亚图拉对核武器的评价是正确的：它们既不道德，也毫无用处。
要是那些纸上谈兵的地缘政治分析家能明白这一点就好了。
Songless says:
The old ayatollah was right about nuclear weapons: they are immoral and useless.
What does America think about nuclear weapons since they are the only country to have used them – twice. Yet they didn’t resort to using them in all the wars that they lost after WWII? Didn’t Sadam Hussein not constitute an existential threat with their fictitious WMDs thus justifying America going nuclear? In that period, how many victories did America achieve without using nukes? Is history not destined to repeat itself in the case of Iran?
美国作为唯一一个曾两次使用过核武器的国家，对这种武器究竟持何种看法？毕竟，在二战后经历的所有那些失败的战争中，他们并未诉诸核武。当初，萨达姆·侯赛因那些虚构的“大规模杀伤性武器”不也曾被渲染成一种生存威胁，足以让美国动用核武合理化吗？在那个时期，美国在不使用核武的情况下到底取得了多少次胜利？
在伊朗问题上，历史难道不注定会重演吗？
Kingsmeg says:
What does America think about nuclear weapons since they are the only country to have used them – twice. Yet they didn’t resort to using them in all the wars that they lost after WWII?
USA has threatened to use nukes on every country they’ve fought since WW2 (not actually sure about Grenada & Panama). The Orange Golem’s threats to Iran are pretty typical. It worked in Korea (China backed down, but then started making their own nukes). Hasn’t really worked anywhere since.
Although the Orange Golem (with Satanyahoo’s hand up his ass) is likely to actually follow through this time, because 1) he’s an idiot, and 2) Satanyahoo really really really wants to murder more Iranian children.
自二战以来，美国几乎威胁要对每一个与其开战的国家动用核武（格林纳达和巴拿马那几次不太确定）。这个“橙色魔像”（指特朗普）对伊朗的威胁也只是老调重弹。这种手段在朝鲜战争时期曾奏效过（中国当时选择了退让，但随后便开始研制自己的核武器），但自那以后，这一套在任何地方都没再真正管用过。
不过，这个“橙色魔像”（在“撒旦内塔尼亚胡”的背后操纵下）这次很可能真的会付诸行动，原因就在于：第一，他是个白痴；第二，“撒旦内塔尼亚胡”发疯似地想要杀害更多的伊朗儿童。
Songless says:
Satanyahu going nuke? Iran will be happy to return the favor.
撒旦内塔尼亚胡想动用核武？伊朗会很乐意对等回敬。
In conclusion, Father Escobar, we must thank China for its courageous intervention. I think you mention your sponsors more than eight times… Without China, Iran would have been doomed, wouldn’t it?
What a difference from Simplicius’s last article on the same topic.
总而言之，埃斯科巴“神父”，我们必须感谢中国的勇敢干预。我想你提到你的“金主”已经不下八次了……如果没有中国，伊朗恐怕早就走投无路了，不是吗？
这与 Simplicius 针对同一话题发表的上一篇文章相比，反差可真够大的。
Mr-Chow-Mein says:
Iran has a small window to assemble a number of nuclear weapons…they better use it because this war isn’t over in a long shot.
These psychopaths will never stop until either they’re ash or Iran is.
It’s all about world domination and a small clique who wants it. These “elite” are untouched by any blowback from their actions so they’re quite willing to do horrendous things…until these peoples families are touched they will continue to do unspeakable things to others for their obxtives because they’re psychopaths.
伊朗现在有一段短暂的窗口期来组装一定数量的核武器……他们最好利用好这段时间，因为这场战争远未结束。
这些疯子绝不会罢手，除非他们自己灰飞烟灭，或者伊朗化为焦土。
这一切的本质都是为了世界霸权，以及那个渴望霸权的小圈子。这些所谓的“精英”从不曾受到其行为后果的波及，因此他们完全不介意干出伤天害理的勾当……除非哪天报应落到他们家属头上，否则为了达成目标，这些丧心病狂的疯子会继续对他人施加难以言状的暴行。
Alex D says:
This nuclear weapons canard is very foolish but refuses to die.
These weapons have been around for 80 years. None have been used in conflict since they were first available in 1945. Why? Because it is impossible to do so. The implications are too dire.
Nuclear weapons do nothing. Israel has them. Has that stopped Iran from shooting missiles at the Israelis? Has that stopped Hezbollah from taking out Israeli soldiers and tanks?
The old ayatollah was right about nuclear weapons: they are immoral and useless.
Now if only the armchair geopolitical analysts would understand.
关于核武器的这个无稽之谈非常愚蠢，但却挥之不去。
这类武器已经存在了80年。自1945年问世以来，它们从未在任何冲突中使用过。为什么？因为根本无法使用，其后果实在太惨重了。
核武器起不到任何实质作用。以色列拥有核武器，但这阻止了伊朗向其发射导弹吗？阻止了真主党歼灭以色列士兵和坦克吗？
那位老阿亚图拉对核武器的评价是正确的：它们既不道德，也毫无用处。
要是那些纸上谈兵的地缘政治分析家能明白这一点就好了。
Songless says:
The old ayatollah was right about nuclear weapons: they are immoral and useless.
What does America think about nuclear weapons since they are the only country to have used them – twice. Yet they didn’t resort to using them in all the wars that they lost after WWII? Didn’t Sadam Hussein not constitute an existential threat with their fictitious WMDs thus justifying America going nuclear? In that period, how many victories did America achieve without using nukes? Is history not destined to repeat itself in the case of Iran?
美国作为唯一一个曾两次使用过核武器的国家，对这种武器究竟持何种看法？毕竟，在二战后经历的所有那些失败的战争中，他们并未诉诸核武。当初，萨达姆·侯赛因那些虚构的“大规模杀伤性武器”不也曾被渲染成一种生存威胁，足以让美国动用核武合理化吗？在那个时期，美国在不使用核武的情况下到底取得了多少次胜利？
在伊朗问题上，历史难道不注定会重演吗？
Kingsmeg says:
What does America think about nuclear weapons since they are the only country to have used them – twice. Yet they didn’t resort to using them in all the wars that they lost after WWII?
USA has threatened to use nukes on every country they’ve fought since WW2 (not actually sure about Grenada & Panama). The Orange Golem’s threats to Iran are pretty typical. It worked in Korea (China backed down, but then started making their own nukes). Hasn’t really worked anywhere since.
Although the Orange Golem (with Satanyahoo’s hand up his ass) is likely to actually follow through this time, because 1) he’s an idiot, and 2) Satanyahoo really really really wants to murder more Iranian children.
自二战以来，美国几乎威胁要对每一个与其开战的国家动用核武（格林纳达和巴拿马那几次不太确定）。这个“橙色魔像”（指特朗普）对伊朗的威胁也只是老调重弹。这种手段在朝鲜战争时期曾奏效过（中国当时选择了退让，但随后便开始研制自己的核武器），但自那以后，这一套在任何地方都没再真正管用过。
不过，这个“橙色魔像”（在“撒旦内塔尼亚胡”的背后操纵下）这次很可能真的会付诸行动，原因就在于：第一，他是个白痴；第二，“撒旦内塔尼亚胡”发疯似地想要杀害更多的伊朗儿童。
Songless says:
Satanyahu going nuke? Iran will be happy to return the favor.
撒旦内塔尼亚胡想动用核武？伊朗会很乐意对等回敬。