网帖翻译

Lee Josiah, Masters Counseling
I’ve lived in Italy for 10 years … it doesn’t make me an expert (I’m 11% Italian my DNA results show … my bisnonno or great grandfather was Italian), but I do have a very unique perspective coming from America, even being from California and having lived in Florida.

我在意大利生活了10年……这并不能让我成为一名意大利专家（我的DNA结果显示我有11%的意大利人血统……我的曾祖父可能是意大利人），但我确实可以有一个非常独特的视角，来自美国的，甚至来自加利福尼亚州的视角来看意大利，而我现在住在佛罗里达州。

Italy is a mystery wrapped up in an enigma. The country is on the surface, without a doubt, one of the most beautiful places on planet earth. The history, the museums, the geography, the rolling hills, the beautiful vistas, the food … did I tell you about the food? Everywhere you look and everywhere you go, there’s a richness of experiences and often, a beauty unspeakable. The Italian people are one of the least nationalistic of many countries (they’re more regional because of their regional history, language and dialect by region, etc.) and yet don’t ever get the idea that they don’t get passionate! Like playing or watching calcio (soccer)! Unfortunately, for the first time since I can remember, they didn’t make it to the World Cup … a huge disappointment.

意大利是一个谜中谜。毫无疑问，这个国家是地球上最美丽的地方之一。它的历史、博物馆、地理、起伏的山峦、美丽的景色、食物……我之前有提到食物吗？无论你走到哪里，无论你看到哪里，都有无垠的美景，常常有一种说不出的美感。意大利人是好些个国家中民族主义程度最低的国家之一（他们更具地域性，因为他们的地域历史、语言和方言都是按地区划分的，等等），但他们总是充满激情！喜欢踢或看足球！不幸的是，自从我记事以来，他们第一次没能参加世界杯……令人非常失望。

But the question, “Is Italy dying?” is almost as ridiculous as it sounds. First, as long as all of us keep coming to Italy, the country will continue to thrive on tourism as it has since shortly after World War II (yes, I know, I know, also because of culinary, fashion, farming & manufacturing!). But there is an eternal love affair with Italy that we all have… for example, between Americans and Italians … Americans want to go to Italy and Italians want to go to America. And they are the first to wonder how you were so confused to want to move to Italy when they would rather live in your country!

但是，“意大利正在衰亡吗？”这一问题几乎和听起来一样荒谬。首先，只要我们继续来到意大利，这个国家就会像二战后不久那样继续繁荣发展旅游业（是的，我知道，我知道，这也是因为烹饪、时尚、农业和制造业！）。但我们都对意大利有一种永恒的爱……例如，美国人和意大利人之间……美国人想去意大利，意大利人想去美国。他们也想知道为什么你想搬到意大利，而他们却想搬去你的国家！

Sure, there’s the government … terrible. And the Italians know it and hate it. It’s almost hard to believe that Italians have not raised up and had a revolt. Well, I suppose if you count the movement behind the comic, Grillo, who is also a felon, but a kind of pop star for Italians because he says everything many Italians want to say, then I guess there’s been a revolt of some sorts. But unfortunately, his party (as well any other) was unable to have enough votes to get a majority. So, like almost always, there’s a mix of groups, scratching each others’ backs and probably padding each others’ pockets.

当然，不可避免地会提到政府……糟透了。意大利人都知道，也讨厌他们地政府。几乎很难相信意大利人没有起义推翻他们的政府。好吧，如果你把漫画《格里洛》背后的运动算在内，格里洛可能会是一个重罪犯，但对意大利人来说是一个流行明星，因为他说了很多意大利人想说的一切，我猜这可能算是某种背叛。但不幸的是，他的政党（以及其他政党）无法获得足够的选票以获得多数席位。所以，几乎总是这样，一群人混在一起，互相抓着对方的背，可能还互相掏对方的口袋。

We like to say that the mafia doesn’t have much influence anymore, much like the church these days, but unfortunately that’s not the case. Less ugly (why kill a guy if you can milk him for all he has?) the mafia has mostly gone civil these days but shows up in it’s influence in cities and villages all across this nation. In fact, it is behind most of the money being made on the refugees coming over and the camps that are set up for them. The government pays them like €10 a day per refugee and they shell out only €1 a day per refugee… what a business!

我们会说黑手党不再有太大的影响力了，就像现在的教会一样，但不幸的是，事实并非如此。只是表面上不那么难看（如果你能榨干他所有的钱，为什么要杀他呢？）黑手党现在大部分都是平民化的，但它在全国的城市和乡村都有影响力。事实上，这是为前来的难民和为他们建立的难民营所赚的大部分钱的背后推手。政府为每个难民每天支付10欧元，而他们只为每个难民每天支付1欧元……真是一笔好买卖！

And I suppose nobody wants to hold up the Roman Catholic church as an example these days with all the scandals of hundreds if not thousands of priests abusing children, both boys and girls, and we’re not even talking about the sexual sins by the priests against nuns. The older folks hold on to tradition and the somewhat unreasonable hope that the church will reform itself but there’s not much possibility of that even if Pope Francesco is a bright star on the horizon. He is acknowledged much of the sins of the church but not really prosecuted those who have been involved. I suppose these contradictions are why it is a bit like the Christ once said, “Like white sepulchers, beautiful on the outside but filled with dead men’s bones on the inside.”

我想现在没有人愿意举，以罗马天主教会为例，数百甚至数千名牧师虐待儿童的丑闻，包括男孩和女孩在内，我们甚至没有谈论牧师对修女的性犯罪。老年人坚持传统，并毫不理性地希望教会能够自我改革，但即使教皇弗朗西斯科是地平线上的一颗璀璨明星，这种可能性也不大。他承认了教会犯下的许多罪行，但并没有真正起诉那些参与其中的人。我想这些矛盾就是为什么它有点像耶稣曾经说过的：“就像白色的坟墓，外表美丽，但里面装满了死人的骨头。”

But all of this said, Italy remains a beautiful mystery. There is so much to enjoy and so much that marvels the eye. Nothing compares to a great cappuccino with a good friend or a glass of wine while watching the sunset over the sea. Around every corner is a new delight. In every village, a new relationship awaits. At every crossroad, a new adventure. And at the core of Italy’s beauty are the people, who generally want what is good and want to help you when you’re down. So we love Italy even if the world says it’s a mess and then, of course, all of us will do our best to make it better.

但所有这些都表明，意大利仍然是一个美丽的神话。有太多的东西可以享受，也有太多让人惊叹的东西。没有什么能比得上和一个好朋友一起喝一杯卡布奇诺，或者在海上看日落时喝一杯葡萄酒。每个角落都能享受一种新的乐趣。在每个村庄，一段邂逅都在等待着你。在每一个十字路口，都有一次新的冒险。意大利美丽的核心是它的人民，他们通常乐观向上，当你情绪低落时，他们会帮助你。因此，我们热爱意大利，即使世界说它一团糟，但当然，我们所有人都会尽最大努力让它变得更好。

Apart from a miracle of God, Italy will remain Italy much the way it is today, even if there will not be as many Italians in the future who’ll be available to help propagate the culture and way of life! That is because when in Italy, you become Italian! All of us can’t help but embrace Italy’s beauty and it’s sadness, the old ways as well as the new, the rich and the poor, the victories and the losses, the joys and the sorrows. And so we all love (and some days hate) Italy with all our hearts. But we will never ever give up on our beloved Italy. So die, no. Change, not really. Continue much the way it has for years? Yes, of course.

除非上帝施展了奇迹，意大利将保持今天的样子，即使未来没有那么多意大利人可以帮助传播它的文化和生活方式！那是因为在意大利的时候，你会入乡随俗！我们所有人都会情不自禁地拥抱意大利的美丽和悲伤，新生活方式和旧时光、贫民和富人、胜利与失败、欢乐与悲伤。因此，我们都全心全意地爱（有时甚至恨）意大利。但我们永远不会放弃我们深爱的意大利。所以衰亡？不，并没有。在改变？也没有。一直这样下去？当然啦。

Jakub Štopl, studied Law at Masarykova Univerzita (2021)
Well the formulation in the question seems little bit dramatic. But if we are looking at it from strictly demographic point of view, Italy is in pretty dire straits. Italian total fertility rate went uder 2.1 threshold in late 1970's and then continued to decline for another decade until it stabilised on ultra low levels around 1.3 children per woman, where it stayed until today. Logical conclusion of this development is the fact, that Italy has been loosing population by natural decrease since 1993 (with one exception of slight increase of 7 000 in 2004). Now with help of significant immigration, Italian population managed to keep slightly growing until it peaked on 60 345 917 in 2014. But since then, the natural decrease start to gain momentum and with annual loss of around 200 000 people every year since 2017 (it was 342 000 in 2020, but that was surely influenced by covid-19 excess deaths) even the immigration streams are not able to balance of the population decline.

这个问题的表述有点那么戏剧性的意味在里面。但如果我们从严格的人口统计角度来看，意大利正处于相当糟糕的困境。意大利的总生育率在20世纪70年代末超过了2.1的门槛，然后又持续下降了10年，直到稳定在每名妇女生育1.3个孩子的超低水平，直到今天。这一发展的逻辑结论是，自1993年以来，意大利人口自然减少（2004年略有增加7000人除外）。如今，在大量移民的帮助下，意大利人口保持了小幅增长，直到2014年达到6034万5917人的峰值。但从那时起，自然下降开始增强它的势头，自2017年以来每年失去约20万人（2020年为34.2万人，但这肯定受到新冠病毒-19过量死亡的影响），即使是移民潮也无法平衡人口下降。

Now this have severe implications for the future of Italy. First and foremost there is the inevitable decline in working age population combined with growing number of retirees. Now today, Italy already has second highest old age dependancy ratio in the world after Japan. Old age dependancy ratio is the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 and over (age when they are generally economically inactive) and the number of persons aged between 15 and 64. The value is expressed per 100 persons of working age (15-64). Current Italian old age dependancy ratio is around 35. By 2050 it will climb to to over 70, according to OECD numbers (if the current trends won't change of course). It is fair to add that while today Italy has highest old age dependancy ratio in Europe, it might be “surpassed” by Spain and some central and eastern European countries like Romania or Poland by 2050 (if they won't manage to change the current trends).

这对于意大利的未来有着严重的影响。首先，也是最重要的是，适龄劳动人口不可避免地减少，同时退休人员数量不断增加。如今，意大利的老龄人口抚养比已经位居世界第二，仅次于日本。老龄人口抚养比是指65岁及以上的人数（通常不从事经济活动时的年龄）与15至64岁的人数之间的比率。该值以每100名工作年龄（15-64岁）的人所表示。目前意大利的老龄人口抚养比约为35。根据经合组织的数据，到2050年，这一数字将攀升至70以上（如果依然保持目前的趋势不变的话）。可以补充的一点，虽然今天意大利的老龄人口抚养比在欧洲最高，但到2050年，它可能会被西班牙和一些中欧和东欧国家（如罗马尼亚或波兰）所“超越”（如果他们无法改变目前的趋势）。

Very high old age dependancy ratios of course imply very high taxation of shrinking working age population and thus lower living standards. It also implies higher and higher proportions of state budgets going to pensions with less money left to spend on other stuff like infrastructure, military, research and development or education and healthcare. And healthcare spending of course also expands heavily with ageing population. Now there is also the perennial question of Italian public debt. That debt soared to pretty alarming level of 157% of Italian GDP in 2021. It is 6th highest in the world and 3rd highest among developed countries behind only Japan and Greece. The serving of the debt will be very hard with ever shrinking woking age population and rising retiree numbers. The combination of very high debts and very concerning demographics in combination with mostly worsening competitiveness in southern Europe is not painting very bright picture to the future of Italy.

很高的老龄人口抚养比当然意味着对不断减少的工作年龄人口征收很高的税收，从而降低生活水平。这也意味着国家预算中用于养老金的比例越来越高，而用于基础设施、军事、研发或教育和医疗等其他方面的资金却越来越少。当然，随着人口老龄化，医疗支出也在大幅增加。现在还有一个长期存在的意大利公共债务问题。2021年，该债务飙升至相当惊人的水平，相当于意大利GDP的157%。在世界上排名第六，在发达国家中排名第三，仅次于日本和希腊。随着劳动年龄人口的不断减少和退休人数的不断增加，偿还债务将非常困难。高负债和令人担忧的人口结构，再加上南欧竞争力的不断恶化，对意大利的未来来说并不是一幅非常光明的图景。

Now there are also cultural questions connected with immigration to Italy. This is probably pretty controversial topic, but there is no way around it. Italy will have to choose between letting its population decline really rapidly, with all the economic implications, or to continue to mitigate this decline with continuous immigration, mostly from Africa and Asia. While the highest foreign born population in Italy today is from Romania, Romanian own demographic implosion together with improvement of Romanian economy will not enable Romania to stay very relevant source of immigration for decades to come. So while continuous immigration might relieve the worsening economic impacts of ageing at least little bit, it will have another cultural impacts on the Italy over time. Italians should have honest debate about this issue, because most projections are clear in showing that the foreign born population and its descendants will comprise larger and larger percentage of Italian population.

我们现在还有一些与意大利移民有关的文化问题。这可能是一个相当有争议的话题，但没有办法回避。意大利必须做出选择，要么让其人口迅速下降，带来一切会造成经济影响的后果，要么继续通过持续移民（主要来自非洲和亚洲）来缓解经济的衰落。虽然目前在意大利的外国出生人口最多的是罗马尼亚人，但罗马尼亚自身的人口内爆以及罗马尼亚的经济情况将无法使罗马尼亚在未来几十年内保持非常重要的移民来源。因此，尽管不间断的移民可能会缓解老龄化带来的日益恶化的经济影响，但随着时间的推移，这将对意大利产生另一种文化影响。意大利人应该就这个问题进行诚实的辩论，因为大多数预测都清楚地表明，外国族裔的出生人口及其后代将在意大利人口中占越来越大的比例。

Now is there any way out of it? Well there is always way out of it. But it is true that the Italy is not showing any sings of improvement. Since Italy is having ultra-low fertility for a very long time, almost for 40 years now, it is clearly in the downward spiral of low fertility trap. That means that women from already ultra-low fertility generations are having another ultra-low fertility generations of babies. That is why there was 404 000 babies born in Italy, country of 60 million people, in 2020. If that does not sound like a very low number, we can put it in some perspective. There was 355 000 babies born in Poland in 2020, country of 38 million that is also dealing with ultra-low fertility. There was circa 700 000 babies born in France in 2020. France has circa 65 million people, so very similar population to Italy, but much healthier demographics. And just to get a glimpse of how it looks in other parts of the world, there was 2,1 millions live births in Tanzania, African country with roughly the same population as Italy. And the data for 2021 so far looks like the decline in live births continuous.

那么我们现在有办法解决这个问题吗？总有办法的。但意大利队确实没有表现出任何想要改善这个问题的迹象。由于意大利长期处于超低生育率状态，近40年来，它显然处于低生育率陷阱的恶性循环中。这意味着，已经生育率极低的一代女性正在生育另一代生育率极低的婴儿。这就是为什么在拥有6000万人口的意大利，2020年只有40万4000名婴儿出生。如果这听起来不是一个很低的数字，我们可以换个角度来看。2020年，波兰有35.5万名婴儿出生，这个拥有3800万人口的国家也面临着超低生育率。2020年，法国大约有70万婴儿出生。法国大约有6500万人口，与意大利人口非常近似，但人口结构更为健康。你还得了解世界其他地区的情况，坦桑尼亚有210万名新生儿，这个非洲国家的人口总数与意大利大致相同。到目前为止，2021年的数据显示，新生人口的下降趋势仍在持续。

I do not know Italian public debate about this issue, since I do not speak Italian. But I would be very glad if anyone from Italy would say to me if it is a big topic in Italy and if Italian government is trying to take some steps to counter these issues. There are countries in Europe with very effective progressive pro-family policies (France, Sweden..) and also countries like Hungary with one of the most ambitious programs to boost birth rates in the world (it costs Hungary around 5% of GDP every year), that is based more in conservative values. And while Hungarian policies often get laughed at as stupid or lame right wing solution, it is most definitely better than doing nothing. And while it is little early to say they are definitely working, they definitely aren't hurting. So I think Italy should think about all the possible solutions and pick one or all of them to battle this issue. But Italians should also prepare that even if the fertility rate would rise significantly, the population decline won't stop in mid-term future, since the cohorts of women i child-bearing age in Italy are just too small at this point.

我不知道意大利公众对这个问题的辩论，因为我不会讲意大利语。（*搞了半天是键盘侠）但如果有意大利人能告诉我这在意大利是否是一个饱受争议的话题，意大利政府是否正试图采取一些措施来应对这些问题，我会非常高兴。欧洲有些国家实行非常有效的家庭保护政策（法国、瑞典……），匈牙利等国家也实施了世界上最雄心勃勃的计划之一，以提高出生率（匈牙利每年为此付出的成本约为GDP的5%），这一计划更多基于保守的价值观。尽管匈牙利的政策经常被嘲笑为愚蠢或蹩脚的右翼解决方案，但这肯定比什么都不做要好。虽然现在说他们的办法起效了还为时过早，但他们肯定不会因此衰落。因此，我认为意大利应该考虑所有可能的解决方案，并选择其中一个或所有解决方案来解决这一问题。但意大利人也应该做好准备，即使生育率会大幅上升，人口下降也不会在短时间内停止，因为意大利育龄妇女的群体数量实在太少了。

Lori Gencotti
Italy will never die.

意大利永远不会死去。

Yes, Italy is in full decadence. It is important to see how she will be able to manage her decadence.

是的，意大利完全自暴自弃了。重要的是她将如何把她自己从泥沼里拉出来。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Demographic collapse?

人口崩溃？

It is sad to have a society without children and youngster but maybe 60 milions people are too many for a small country with no natural resources and with 70% of its land hilly or mountainous. So, if in 50 years from now Italy will have 20 milions less people it will no be such a tragedy. Remember that our ancestors were able to build the “Duomo di Firenze” and the “Basilica di San Pietro” when Italy had only 15 milions people.

一个没有儿童和年轻人的社会是令人悲哀的，但对于一个没有自然资源、70%土地为丘陵或山地的小国来说，可能有6000万人已经太多了。因此，如果50年后意大利人口减少2000万，这绝不会是一场悲剧。请记住，我们的祖先能够在意大利只有1500万人口的时候建造“圣母百花大教堂”和“圣彼得大教堂”。

Immigration?

移民问题？

Big challenge. I’d rather see the suburbs of our cities empty because of demography collapse (see previous point) rather than filled with people not integrated and with scenario like “Parisian banlieu”.

对于意大利而言巨大的挑战。我宁愿看到我们城市的郊区因为人口崩溃而空无一人（见上一点），也不愿看到人满为患的“巴黎范儿郊区”。

Economy?

经济上？

Euro has been the biggest rip off in the history of our Country. Our supposed “European brothers” are just cynical backstabbers. The austerity measures have intentionally destroyed our economy.

欧元是我国历史上最大的骗局。我们所谓的“欧洲兄弟”只是愤世嫉俗的背刺者。通货紧缩有意地破坏了我们的经济。

Having said that I don’t see any other solution. Going back to the “Lira” is more a childish utopic dream than a valuable option. Italians will have to rely on their endless talents, defend their strategic assets, destroy the bureaucracy, invest in education and better organize their working environment to sort out the economy.

话虽如此，我看不到任何其他解决方案。回到“里拉”时代（意大利使用欧元前的货币）与其说是一个有价值的选择，不如说是一个幼稚的乌托邦之梦。意大利人将不得不依靠他们无穷无尽的才能，捍卫他们的战略资产，重建官僚机构，投资于教育，更好地组织他们的工作环境来整顿经济。

The idea that Italy should became a sort of mix between South Korea and Japan with people working 12 hours a day also the 15th of August is silly and irrational.

有一种想法认为意大利应该成为韩国和日本的混合体，但这让人们每天工作12小时的想法是愚蠢和不合理的。

People in Germany work less than us and Germany is far more richer than Italy, so the idea that Italians are experiencing tough times because we are genetically lazy as someone has stressed is just a groundless affirmation.

德国人工作时间比我们少，但同时德国比意大利富裕得多，因此，有人强调，意大利人之所以经历这样的艰难时期，是因为我们天生懒惰，这只是一种毫无根据的谎言。

My conclusion is that we cannot avoid the decadence but that we have to face it with realism. We are obliged to find new solutions and resources in a scenario completely different from the past.

我的结论是，我们无法避免意大利的颓废，但我们必须以现实主义的态度面对它。我们必须在与过去完全不同的情况下找到新的解决方案和新的资源。

原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处