受美国加征关税影响,印度卢比汇率持续重挫跌,创造史新低
2025-12-20 冲动的小李 6066
正文翻译



Reuters reported on the 4th, citing three informed sources, that India's central bank will tolerate the depreciation of its currency, the rupee, primarily due to multiple risks facing the Indian economy, including a widening trade deficit and capital outflows

路透社4日援引三名知情人士的话报道,印度中央银行将容忍印度货币卢比贬值,主要缘于印度经济面临多重风险,包括贸易逆差扩大和资本外流等。
Reuters reported on the 4th, citing three informed sources, that India's central bank will tolerate the depreciation of its currency, the rupee, primarily due to multiple risks facing the Indian economy, including a widening trade deficit and capital outflows   .The report stated that until November, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had been actively selling US dollars to support the rupee. However, over the past seven trading sessions, the central bank has allowed the rupee to depreciate by 1.3% against the US dollar   . On the 3rd, the Indian rupee fell below the psychological threshold of 90 against the US dollar for the first time, hitting a record low

报道说,印度央行印度储备银行至11月一直通过积极抛售美元来支撑卢比,但在过去7个交易日中,印度央行已允许卢比对美元汇率下跌1.3%。
印度卢比对美元汇率3日首次跌破90卢比兑换1美元关口,创历史新低。

ources indicated that the RBI's signal of tolerance for a weaker rupee suggests its interventions will primarily aim to curb excessive volatility or signs of speculative trading buildup, rather than defend any specific exchange rate level for the rupee   . One source, who wished to remain anonymous, said, "When all fundamental factors are unfavorable for the currency, there is no point in depleting foreign exchange reserves"

消息人士说,印度央行释放容忍卢比走弱的信号表明其干预措施将主要用于抑制汇率剧烈波动或投机性交易积聚的迹象,而非捍卫卢比的任何特定汇率水平。
其中一名不愿公开姓名的消息人士说:“当基本面一切因素都对该货币不利时,消耗外汇储备没有意义。”

Another source mentioned that the rupee breaking through the key 90-to-the-dollar level is concerning and could fuel speculative behavior, but the central bank can intervene when necessary to counter such activity   .Reuters reported that India is one of the markets hardest hit by capital outflows, with foreign investors having sold $17 billion worth of Indian stocks so far this year. Concurrently, foreign direct investment, trade, and offshore financing flows have all slowed down

另一名消息人士说,卢比兑美元汇率跌破90卢比兑换1美元这一重要心理关口引发关注,且可能助长投机行为,但央行在必要时可以介入以打击投机行为。
路透社报道,印度是资本外流最严重市场之一,外国投资者今年以来已抛售价值170亿美元的印度股票。与此同时,外国直接投资、贸易和离岸融资流动均放缓。

 
评论翻译
@vikingofvirals952
Can't manipulate like growth stat

汇率无法像增长统计那样操控

@ezototunyi9915
Someone said dollar will fall against rupees. Now what is this?

有人说美元会对印度卢比贬值。现在这是什么情况?

@nicholasmendoza5844
It was her who said that.

是她说的。

@PraveenKumar-vn9ex
Modi said

莫迪说过

@johanbeek
only gold

只有黄金靠谱

@NothingWong-d5x
All other currencies are up against rupees only third world countries currencies remain same rate
We've been importing a lot, but exporting very little. The rupee is practically worthless in international trade.

除了第三世界国家的货币外,所有其他货币对印度卢比都有所上涨。
我们一直在进口,但是却出口很少。卢比在国际贸易中快成为废纸了

@Rage_bait-121
India will never take responsibility. Blaming the US tariff for the drop in the Rupee but the Rupee has been dropping for the last 10 years.

印度永远不会承担责任。他们将印度卢比贬值归咎于美国的关税,但实际上,卢比已经贬值了十年。

@petersouthernboy6327
Indians have issues with accountability. The name of the game is to blame Americans and the British.

印度人在责任问题上存在问题。游戏的规则就是将责任归咎于美国人和英国人。

@lotusflower7517
This rupee dropping of 50% in the last 12 years. The govt should take responsible for this.

印度卢比在过去12年贬值了50%。政府应该对此负责。

@sean1983521
And the same lady accused China to manipulate its currency intentionally few days ago

几天前,那个女士还指责中国故意操控其货币。

@kanish-g9z
wait bjp will introduce it's own currency converter... which will make us equal to kuwati dinar soon 1 rupee will be equal to 3

等等,印度人民党会推出自己的货币兑换器……很快,我们的卢比将和科威特第纳尔相等,1卢比将等于3。

@loneranger114
Now my Toilet paper worths more than the indian rupees

现在我的卫生纸比印度卢比还值钱。

@Vsps48
C is indeed manipulating its currency; its trade deficit has reached a staggering one trillion dollars. Yet, the CNY exchange rate has remained stable.
This simply doesn't make sense.

C确实在操纵货币,他们的贸易逆差达到了惊人的一万亿美元。然而人民币的汇率居然保持稳定。
这根本不合逻辑

@NothingWong-d5x
Haha India need to pay more for debts interests

哈哈,印度需要为债务利息支付更多。

@jskiran4413
Stop buying foreign products buy local

停止购买外国商品,购买本地产品。

@BLUERAY1611
PLEASE DON'T INSULT MY DOG

请不要侮辱我的狗。

@pjohnpamaipamai8057
Modi modi modi

莫迪,莫迪,莫迪

@venkateswarluchaluvadi7540
Still rupee falling is not bottomed to Godi long waited target to breach century. Your bosses is great , you too demand your payment in dollars. Don’t worry your boss is expert in manipulating inflation. Public are under confusion , tell honestly Trump called Godi or Godi calked Trump, Godi media is giving contradictory information.

印度卢比仍在贬值,远未触底,政府长期以来期待突破百元关口。你的老板很棒,你也要求用美元支付。
别担心,你的老板擅长操控通货膨胀。公众处于困惑中,实话告诉我,是特朗普叫莫迪,还是莫迪叫特朗普,莫迪媒体提供了矛盾的信息。

@sahilchowdhary2195
Trump punishing india

特朗普在惩罚印度。

@RizwanAbbasi-t1q
After 5 years Pakistan Rupee will be stronger than India Rupee.

五年后,巴基斯坦卢比将比印度卢比更强。

@bhadwamodi8294
@RizwanAbbasi-t1q After 5 years Pakistani Punjabi paindo army corruption will be more stronger.

五年后,巴基斯坦旁遮普地区的腐败军队将变得更强。

@InnareddyP
@jskiran4413what are the Indian products?.

印度有哪些本地产品?

@RishadRifat-p6s
My fend dolund trarramm..mmm

我的朋友特朗普……

@rahulsalve3573
Abhi baar 100 paar! Masterstroke

现在汇率准备突破100!妙手

@NeNeisL:
Let's go for 100

让我们争取达到100

@NothingWong-d5x:
90.5 now

现在是90.5

@jskiran4413:
Stop buying foreign products buy local

停止购买外国产品,购买本地产品

@matjebonklumen147:
Yes, better make a nice hundred figure

是的,最好做到一个漂亮的百位数字

@waggish_amoureux:
@jskiran4413it doesn't work like that idiot

事情不是那样运作的,傻瓜

@kumar_52-c4m:
Modi hai to mumkin hai

只要莫迪在,一切皆有可能

@mcu.rocket.576:
@jskiran4413 Local product kaunsa ? I want a good smartphone. Most of them are Chinese. I can't afford apple.

有什么是本地产品?我想要一部好的智能手机,大部分都是中国制造的。我买不起苹果。

@mcu.rocket.576:
@SachinKumarSingh-AK-47 Hindi knowledge show, Major Gaurav Arya, hyper right wing, Godi media, Modi and Kuch gawar log etc also think - India is developed than China, UK, France, Australia, Singapore, Norway, etc.

AK-47,印度语知识秀,Gaurav Arya少校,极右翼,Godi媒体,莫迪和一些乡巴佬等人也认为,印度比中国、英国、法国、澳大利亚、新加坡、挪威等国家更发达。

@M18101980:
@jskiran4413 ask the govt first to produce local products

首先请政府生产本地产品

@jskiran4413:
@mcu.rocket.576whichever is available. Whatever is indian products available buy them. If not buy other countries.

随便哪种,只要有售的,只要是印度产品就买。如果没有,才买其他国家的。

@sivakrishna1682:
rupee = cent... that's EMBARRASSING!

1卢比 = 1美分... 这太尴尬了!

@sudhakarnayak1210:
It shouldn’t go past 95

它不应该超过95

@sudhakarnayak1210:
@kumar_52-c4m Kya mumkin ho raha he apko abhi pata nahi chalega

你现在可能不知道什么是可能的。

@universaljack893:
@jskiran4413local products are sub par quality

本地产品质量较差

@reekbak16:
Not 100 but maybe 98 or 99

不是100,也许是98或99

@sanjeevsharma9998:
Yes why not if that helps the overall economy. In last one year, USD has depreciated 12% against major currency and Trump wants more as weaker dollar helps USA.

是的,为什么不呢,如果这有助于整体经济的话。过去一年,美元对主要货币贬值了12%,特朗普希望更多,因为弱势美元有利于美国。

@PhysicsUnplugged5442:
@jskiran4413mf commenting this from a Chinese or american phone

你是用中国或美国手机评论的吧

@jskiran4413:
@PhysicsUnplugged5442may be you commenting from eating indian agri products.

也许你是在评论印度农业产品时吃的东西吧。

@cwbiietlala97:
Indians will soon use rupee as toilet paper thanks to Modi.

感谢莫迪,印度人很快会把卢比当作卫生纸使用。

@sahilchowdhary2195:
The US dollar has actually been depreciating, but the rupee has been depreciating even faster.
Becauseour foreign exchange reserves are constantly flowing out, nobody wants the rupee.

美元其实一直在贬值,而卢比贬值更快。
因为我们的外汇一直在流失,没有人想要卢比

@sanjeevsharma9998:
You need to get some basic understanding of economics.

你需要对经济学有一些基本了解。

@MeowzarKaiser:
@sanjeevsharma9998economy depends on how much is produced,import/export, and flow of goods and services/cash. Weakening rupee means higher petrol costs, copper, etc. Basically price of all goods shall rise without any gain of productivity or development in nation. That's why we say it's becoming weaker. US suffered 12% weakening and all this among other things prompted banks to predict recession in next 12-18 months. Please get an education and not be a termite to our country

经济取决于生产多少、进出口、以及商品和服务/现金的流动。卢比贬值意味着汽油、铜等成本上涨。基本上,所有商品的价格都会上涨,但没有任何生产力或国家发展的提升。
这就是我们说它变弱的原因。
美国经历了12%的贬值,这一切,加上一些其他因素,促使银行预测未来12-18个月可能会进入衰退。请接受教育,不要成为我们国家的蛀虫。

@MeowzarKaiser:
@sanjeevsharma9998because then it might be in free fall and stabilize around 100, plus possibility of recession is higher.

因为那时它可能会自由下跌,并稳定在100左右,此外衰退的可能性更高。

@MeowzarKaiser:
@sudhakarnayak121010+ years and abhi tak nahi pata chala kya ho raha hai. Modi khud nahi pata modi ke liye kya possible hai

已经等了10多年,到现在还不知道发生了什么。莫迪自己也不知道对莫迪来说什么是可能的。

@MeowzarKaiser:
@jskiran4413Bhai bijli ke taar hatha de Ghar se, no laptop,phone,even internet bhi na use kar.

兄弟,去家里拔掉电线,不用笔记本电脑、手机,甚至连互联网也不使用。

@MeowzarKaiser:
@jskiran4413india always was an agricultural economy but agriculture doesn't have high profit margins compared to manufacturing sector especially if it's done labour intensively. For India to grow we need to diversify into manufacturing as well.

印度一直是一个农业经济体,但与制造业相比,农业的利润率并不高,尤其是当它依赖劳动密集型时。为了让印度发展,我们需要多元化发展制造业。

@sudhakarnayak1210:
@MeowzarKaiserjab 10 saal intezar kar liya to 2 saal aur kar lo, utna kafi hoga samajhne me.

已经等了10年,再等2年也行,足够理解了。

@Michael_Bicycle:
@sudhakarnayak1210wah bc matlab abhi aur jaan nikalni hain india mi

哇,意思是现在还得在印度多受点苦。

@Michael_Bicycle:
@jskiran4413bc how? Do we produce best electronics or petroleum or Gold. Dmbfk gobarbhakt

怎么可能?我们生产最好的电子产品、石油或黄金吗?傻逼。

@JT_INDIAN:
Rupee valuebwill be equal to the no gods in india

卢比的价值将等同于印度的神祇数量。

@Ohmygod-vo7wv:
200 within 5 years.

5年内达到200。

@shanutayde6033:
Abki baar sau paar

这次一定突破百位。

@georgemathew8558:
Aiming for near 2030

目标接近2030年

@PeoplesRepublicOfAmerica:
Yes that way it's easier to calculate

是的,那样更容易计算

@KittyCat-nv9nd
Three days later, another new low! 90.98. Rupee is definitely heading to 100. It is not if. It is WHEN.

三天后,又创下新低!90.98。印度卢比肯定会跌到100。不是“是否”,而是“什么时候”。

@RayalaSandip
It's not funny, idiot. Food prices depend on inflation. And there are a lot of people living in India below the poverty line.

这不好笑,傻瓜。食品价格取决于通货膨胀。而且在印度有很多人生活在贫困线以下。

@rishabhjain855
Palki Sharma in July : dollar will crash
Shallow knowledge

帕尔基·夏尔马在七月说:美元将崩溃
浅薄的知识

@lalodaniels1388
More like know nothing

更像是啥都不懂

@sandeep8683
Modi’s 5-trillion economy is like my diet plan — always starting ‘next year’.

莫迪的5万亿经济计划就像我的减肥计划——总是从“明年”开始。

@local_potato
must have meant 50-trillion rupee economy not dollar

他应该是指50万亿卢比的经济,而不是美元。

@sanjeevsharma9998
How does 5 trillion economy will get impacted, Congress chamcha?

5万亿的话经济会受到什么影响,国大党的走狗?

@SkyBoson-f7f
@local_potato you are too dull to understand!

你太迟钝了,理解不了!

@rajeshstephen4661
Fake data , fake promises.

假数据,假承诺。

@josegeorge1404
Why don’t you ask your pawpaw to pay in dollars ?

你为什么不让你爷爷用美元支付?

@nilesh5758
Palki godi media tell tru Modi finish Indian Economy

帕尔基和莫迪媒体说实话,莫迪毁掉了印度经济。

@stevenlai1199
Modi is under going burnol self treatment

莫迪正在进行Burnol自我治疗(Burnol是一种印度的药膏,通常用于缓解烧伤)。

@dorritosalsamo
LET'S GO! We can make it 100 before the end of the year

我们加油!我们可以在年底之前让它达到100。

@LijoJose-x3j
India can handle anything as there is nothing to be handled

印度能应对任何事,因为根本没什么需要应对的。

@pjohnpamaipamai8057
Modi modi modi

莫迪,莫迪,莫迪

@Sehootsu
Ya right

是的,没错

@sullysuleman777
tea was fantastic surrender moodi

茶真不错,投降吧,莫迪。

@i_say_facts
@sullysuleman777 pakistan madrasha jihadi Muslim ola hu uber boom

巴基斯坦的宗教学校,圣战分子,穆斯林,顺风车,繁荣

@SufiyanShaikh-h1p
Palki said AI is a bubble and dollar will collapse
But it is the rupee that is collapsing

帕尔基说人工智能是个泡沫,美元将崩溃
但实际上是印度卢比在崩溃。

@harrydavies861
India is collapsing altogether

印度整体正在崩溃。

@astronomyin10minutes
@harrydavies861not as fast as Britain or should I say Britain caliphate

还没像英国那样快,或者应该说是英国的哈里发。

@harrydavies861
@astronomyin10minutes India needs to build toilets first before talking about others

印度首先需要建厕所,然后再谈论别人。

@SufiyanShaikh-h1p
@astronomyin10minutes don’t worry they will survive it’s India that is going backwards

不用担心,他们会挺过来的,是印度正在倒退。

@astronomyin10minutes
By the way india registered 8% growth rare after being world 4 biggest economy

顺便说一下,印度宣称了8%的增长,在成为世界第四大经济体后货币崩溃是罕见的

@Penber-p8e
@harrydavies861 yall took $45 trillion from us and did what? Not even one unicorn? not even in the list of top 5 highest GDP country? have some shame, the one's you colonized are now far beyond you, uk nowadays is only mentioned when people talk about muslim countries or thugs or r@pe

你们英国从我们这里拿了45万亿美元,做了什么?一个独角兽都没有?连世界前五大GDP国家都没进?
一点羞耻心都没有吗?你们曾经殖民的国家现在已经远远超越你们,现在提到英国,通常都是在谈论穆斯林国家、暴徒或强奸。

@ScienceWithSenior
@SufiyanShaikh-h1pwe survived when 90 percent is under poverty line gdp growth 0.01% and gdp was 2% of world, we can do it again

当我们生活在贫困线以下人口占90%、GDP增长率仅为0.01%、GDP总量仅占全球2%的境况中时,我们都顽强地生存了下来,如今我们一定能再次战胜困难。

@workinprogress1978
@ScienceWithSenior redefining survival.

重新定义生存。

@auraplayz154
Some Andhbhakt she is

她是个盲目崇拜者。

@dineshpawar4218
@ScienceWithSenior 3 dollar major is old actually hunger index major 100 doller and india that rank 40% poverty buddy

3美元的经济大国已经过时了,实际上是饥饿指数的主要指标,100美元的贫困线,印度贫困率高达40%。

@aliengaming8779:
@harrydavies861 look whos sayin

看看是谁在说话

@astronomyin10minutes:
And if you are taking about poverty rate imf just released the data

如果你在说贫困率,国际货币基金组织刚发布了数据

@sanjeevsharma9998:
How does Rupee at 120 or 70 will impact you Congress chamcha?

卢比汇率在120或70会对你这个国大党跟班有什么影响?

@MeowzarKaiser:
Ai is not yet a bubble

人工智能还不是泡沫

@MeowzarKaiser:
@ScienceWithSeniorbro it's the fact that we are regressing instead of advancing. Would you rather that we suffer through famines and riots and deaths again than be thankful that our forefathers pushed and survived through that difficult time for us to thrive?

事实是我们正在倒退,而不是前进。你宁愿我们再次经历饥荒、骚乱和死亡,而不是感恩我们的祖先在那个困难的时代坚持并生存下来,让我们能够繁荣吗?

@MeowzarKaiser:
@astronomyin10minutesIMF also gave c grade to date purity and obxtivity

国际货币基金组织也给了我们C级评价,这是真实和客观性。

@nithinthomas1472:
Hahha so true!

哈哈,太真实了!

@bhadwamodi8294:
Palki knows that Satyameva Jayate (Sanskrit for "Truth Alone Triumphs")

帕尔基知道“真理必胜”(梵语“真理独胜”)

@Smithpapa-tf3dl:
1. Weak rupee → higher prices (this is basic economics)

1. 卢比贬值 → 物价上涨(这是基础经济学)

When the rupee depreciates against the US dollar, imports become more expensive. India is heavily import-dependent, especially for:

当卢比相对于美元贬值时,进口商品变得更加昂贵。印度在许多方面依赖进口,尤其是:

Crude oil & LNG
Electronics (phones, chips, appliances)
Machinery & industrial inputs
Chemicals, fertilizers, APIs
Solar panels, EV components
Many consumer goods (directly or indirectly)

原油与液化天然气
电子产品(手机、芯片、电器)
机械和工业原料
化学品、化肥、活性药物成分
太阳能面板、电动汽车零部件
许多消费品(直接或间接)

So your example is correct in principle:
If $1 = ₹85 → product costs ₹85
If $1 = ₹90 → same product costs ₹90

所以你的例子在原则上是正确的:
如果1美元=85卢比 → 产品价格为85卢比
如果1美元=90卢比 → 同样的产品价格为90卢比

That increase does not require inflation or profiteering — it’s purely currency math.

这一增长不需要通货膨胀或奸商加价——这纯粹是货币数学问题。


2. “But India manufactures a lot” — true, but incomplete

2. “但印度制造很多”——对,但不完全正确

Yes, India manufactures domestically, but:
Many “Indian-made” products still import:
Raw materials
Intermediate components
Energy (oil/gas)
Fuel prices affect everything:
Transport
Electricity
Logistics
Food distribution

是的,印度有本土制造,但:
许多“印度制造”的产品仍依赖进口:
原材料
中间组件
能源(石油/天然气)
燃料价格影响一切:
交通
电力
物流
食品分销

So even domestic goods become more expensive when:
Rupee falls
Oil prices rise
Freight costs increase

所以即使是本国产品,也会在以下情况下变得更加昂贵:
卢比贬值
油价上涨
运费增加

3. Who gets hit the hardest?

3. 谁受到的影响最严重?

A weaker rupee does not affect everyone equally:

卢比贬值并不是对每个人的影响都一样:

Hurt most:
Middle class
Salaried workers
Fixed-income households
Small businesses
Import-dependent industries

受影响最大的是:
中产阶级
工薪阶层
固定收入家庭
小企业
依赖进口的行业

Who benefits:
Exporters (IT, pharma, textiles)
Companies earning in USD
Remittance-heavy sectors

受益的是:
出口商(信息技术、制药、纺织品)
以美元赚钱的公司
依赖汇款的行业

This is why governments often highlight export gains while downplaying consumer inflation.

这就是为什么政府常常强调出口增长,而淡化消费品通货膨胀的原因。


4. Why governments/media underplay this

4. 为什么政府/媒体淡化这一点

No government wants headlines saying:
“Currency weakening makes daily life more expensive”

没有政府希望出现这样的头条:
“货币贬值让日常生活更加昂贵”

So the narrative usually becomes:
“Exports are strong”
“Forex reserves are stable”
“India is resilient”

所以叙事通常变成:
“出口强劲”
“外汇储备稳定”
“印度具有韧性”

These statements can be technically true, while ignoring household reality.

这些陈述在技术上可能是正确的,但忽视了家庭的现实。

That’s not conspiracy — it’s political messaging.

这不是阴谋论——这是政治宣传。


5. Your conclusion is reasonable

5. 你的结论是合理的

You’re right that:
A falling rupee raises import costs
That filters into daily expenses
Over time, cost of living increases
Media often sugarcoats or deflects from this reality

你说得对:
卢比贬值增加了进口成本
这种影响渗透到日常开支中
随着时间推移,生活成本增加
媒体常常粉饰或回避这个现实

Where nuance matters:
Currency weakness alone doesn’t collapse an economy
But persistent depreciation absolutely erodes purchasing power

细节所在:
仅仅是货币贬值并不会摧毁经济
但持续的贬值必定会侵蚀购买力

Bottom line (plain English)

结论(简明易懂)

If the rupee keeps falling:
Indians pay more for the same things
Salaries don’t rise proportionally
Life gets more expensive, not cheaper

如果卢比继续贬值:
印度人支付更多费用购买相同的商品
工资没有相应增加
生活变得更贵,而不是更便宜

No amount of TV optimism changes exchange-rate math.

电视上的乐观情绪无法改变汇率的数学原理。

If you want, I can also:
Break down which sectors will inflate fastest
Explain why governments tolerate rupee weakness
Or show historical examples of how this played out in India before

如果你愿意,我还可以:
解析哪些行业将最快膨胀
解释为什么政府容忍卢比贬值
或者展示印度历史上类似情况如何发生过

 
很赞 7
收藏