国外网友热议：中国有“更大的石油储备缓冲”来应对能源危机！
正文翻译
Oil prices have surged to their highest level as the United States-Israel war on Iran continues, despite US President Donald Trump's claims that talks are underway. The conflict has killed thousands of people and is now severely disrupting global energy supplies. That pressure is spreading across the global economy. Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ Insights at global trade intelligence platform Kpler, tells CNA’s Asia Now how the Iran war is influencing oil markets across the world.
由于美国-以色列对伊朗的战争持续不断，油价已飙升至最高水平，尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普声称谈判正在进行中。这场冲突已造成数千人死亡，目前正严重扰乱全球能源供应。这种压力正在蔓延至全球经济。全球贸易情报平台Kpler的中东及欧佩克+洞察主管阿梅纳·巴克尔向亚洲新闻台的《亚洲现在时》栏目讲述了伊朗战争如何影响全球石油市场。
Oil prices have surged to their highest level as the United States-Israel war on Iran continues, despite US President Donald Trump's claims that talks are underway. The conflict has killed thousands of people and is now severely disrupting global energy supplies. That pressure is spreading across the global economy. Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ Insights at global trade intelligence platform Kpler, tells CNA’s Asia Now how the Iran war is influencing oil markets across the world.由于美国-以色列对伊朗的战争持续不断，油价已飙升至最高水平，尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普声称谈判正在进行中。这场冲突已造成数千人死亡，目前正严重扰乱全球能源供应。这种压力正在蔓延至全球经济。全球贸易情报平台Kpler的中东及欧佩克+洞察主管阿梅纳·巴克尔向亚洲新闻台的《亚洲现在时》栏目讲述了伊朗战争如何影响全球石油市场。
评论翻译
@godzillamothra5983
The world need to remember, the US and Israel brought us into this abyss.
全世界都需要记住，是美国和以色列把我们带入了深渊。
@tan83ful
Not really. Iran is also part of them mess. The supreme leader of Iran is partly the cause….
不见得。伊朗 也是这团乱局的一部分。伊朗的最高领袖在一定程度上也是起因……
@tank_kind_7
@tan83fulYou can thank US and Israel for this.
@tan83ful 这事儿你得感谢美国和以色列。
@tan83ful
@tank_kind_7Thanks but no thanks Iran
@tank_kind_7 谢谢，但还是免了吧，伊朗 。
@lomaxrobert
Whenever you hear a Chinese official number or statement, ask what would happen to any Chinese journalist or analyst who questioned it.
每当你听到中国官方的数据或声明时，不妨问问任何敢于质疑这些数据的中国记者或分析师会面临什么后果。
@vincecarlo
EXACTLY
The WAR MONGERS Isreal n US put the WHOLE WORLD in this UTTER MESS
一点没错。以色列和美国这两个好战分子把整个世界拖入了这片彻头彻尾的混乱之中。
@morbid747
@tan83fulHe's an 86 year old man sick and dying of cancer. Getting rid of him serve no purpose.
@tan83ful 他是一个身患癌症、行将就木的86岁老人。除掉他也无济于事。
@Complicitur
The moral of the story is don't be complicit with AIPAC
这个故事的寓意是不要与美以公共事务委员会（AIPAC）同流合污。
@lagrangewei
People tend to forget that China is top 10 oil producer... they production over a million barrel.... that is as much oil as the gulf states.
人们往往忘记了中国也是排名前十的产油国……他们的产量超过100万桶（注：实际约为400多万桶）……这和海湾国家的产油量差不多。
@jogana6909
Since the war, the sales of electric vehicles in China have surged.
Of course, this can't solve all problems.
But don't forget, China has been buying crude oil from Russia and Iran (never stopped).
自战争爆发以来，中国电动汽车的销量大幅飙升。当然，这解决不了所有问题。但别忘了，中国一直在从俄罗斯和伊朗购买原油（从未停止）。
@FocusEastFirst
That's right, China ranks fifth in oil production, close to fourth-place Canada, with a daily output of 5 million barrels.
没错，中国生产石油排名第五，跟第四名的加拿大差不多，日产量500万桶。
@mknndvcvv
But according to the enemy of China. The US attacks on Venezuela & Iran are ultimately aimed at cutting off fuel supplies to China, with the underlying motive being to weaken and ultimately attack China. Meanwhile, some US allies are now begging fertilizer supplies from China.
但根据中国的敌人的说法，美国对委内瑞拉和伊朗的袭击最终目的是为了切断对中国的燃料供应，其潜在动机是削弱并最终攻击中国。与此同时，一些美国的盟友现在正乞求中国供应化肥。
@hermesliteratus882
Begging is definitely the right word in this context, especially for Modi.
在这种语境下，“乞求”绝对是个恰当的词，尤其是对莫迪而言。
@UpShiftTypeR
Kissenger used to say being a lapdog of the usa is fatal. Iran just proved that.
基辛格过去常说，做美国的走狗是致命的。伊朗刚刚证明了这一点。
@markchan8110
Is about time Asia especially SEA move towards electrifying it's energy infrastructure with more renewable energy like wind, solar and even Thorium nuclear reactor rather too dependent on oil and gas.
亚洲特别是东南亚是时候走向能源基础设施电气化了，多利用风能、太阳能甚至钍核反应堆等可再生能源，而不是过度依赖石油和天然气。
@ertruty-r2i
Oil isn’t just a commodity — it’s a driving force behind geopolitics, economic trends, and global power dynamics. Any change in production or pricing creates ripple effects across industries and nations. To understand oil is to understand how the modern world truly functions.
石油不仅仅是一种大宗商品——它是地缘政治、经济趋势和全球权力动态背后的推动力。产量或价格的任何变化都会在各个行业和国家间产生连锁反应。理解了石油，才算真正理解了现代世界是如何运作的。
@MarvinChenFantasy
According to the media, there're all kinds of collapses in China, yearly, oil shortage can be a easy one. China will be fine, as always.
根据媒体的报道，中国每年都在发生各种各样的“崩溃”，石油短缺可能只是其中轻而易举的一个。中国会没事的，一如既往。
@k54122
Singapore needs nuclear reactors ASAP.
新加坡需要尽快建造核反应堆。
@tank_kind_7
well played Chinaman
玩得漂亮，中国人。
@HillarySmith-u8j
China’s debt issue isn’t defined solely by its scale—it’s shaped by its underlying structure. A large portion is held by local governments and property developers, heavily tied to infrastructure investment and the housing market. The real concern isn’t the presence of debt, but whether continued growth and effective restructuring can keep the risks in check over time.
中国的债务问题不仅由其规模决定，更由其底层结构决定。其中很大一部分由地方政府和房地产开发商持有，深度绑定在基建投资和房地产市场上。真正的担忧不在于债务的存在，而在于长期的持续增长和有效的结构重组能否将风险控制在合理范围内。
@jianyang6281
somehow a word pops up in my mind "V2G" EV send its electricity to the grid. EV get to charge in day time from solar, and give the charge back to the grid in night time. If this crisis keeps going, I beleive this would be the laststand of China.
不知道为什么我脑海里冒出一个词叫“V2G（车载外放电，车辆到电网）”，即电动车向电网反向输送电能。电动车可以在白天通过太阳能充电，并在夜间将电量回馈给电网。如果这场危机持续下去，我相信这会成为中国的终极王牌。
@yz8233
LMao, China's energy self-sufficiency ranks third in the world, while Singapore relies entirely on imports for energy. Don't forget China produces its own oil and also has oil and gas pipelines from Russia and Central Asia. China is the country best prepared for this kind of situation in the whole world.
笑死，中国能源自主排全世界第三。而新加坡能源全靠进口。别忘了中国自身产油，也有俄罗斯和中亚的油气管道。中国是全世界面对这种局面准备最多的国家。
@Konushku
Just use less electricity
少用点电不就得了。
@vincecarlo
PUSHING for EV is PURELY DUMB then
LOL
那强推电动汽车纯粹就是愚蠢了。笑死。
@hermesliteratus882
China has ‘bigger cushion’ of oil stock to weather energy crisis, but at what cost?
中国拥有“更厚实”的石油储备缓冲来渡过能源危机，但代价是什么呢？。
@rwwc0306
Newsflash: China is 85% self-sufficient regarding its energy consumption needs and is the best prepared by a wide margin amongst every country in the ongoing supply shock
简讯：中国在能源消费需求方面的自给率达到了85%，在当前这场供应冲击中，它是所有国家里准备最充分的一个，且大幅领先。
@jeff6161
This is a good wake up call for the world to not take energy for granted. There’s a limit and it’s a finite resource. Time for us to go big on solar especially for tropical regions
这给全世界敲响了警钟，不要把能源当成理所当然的事。能源是有极限的，它是一种有限的资源。是时候让我们大力发展太阳能了，尤其是热带地区。
@Windsong323
Chinese government are good planners.
They constructed electricity grid, storage for oils etc…..at least 3-6 months.
中国政府是出色的规划者。他们建设了电网、石油储备等……至少能撑3到6个月。
@hermesliteratus882
They have strategic vision.
他们有战略眼光。
@JayTse-x7l
People are stupid. Chinese oil tankers are going through as per Iran instructions. All tankers pay with yuan can also go through Hormuz, what’s the problem. If any country still kisses Trump’s butt by using USD, too bad.
人们太蠢了。中国的油轮是按照伊朗的指令通行的。所有用人民币结算的油轮也都可以通过霍尔木兹海峡，这有什么问题。如果还有国家坚持使用美元来拍特朗普的马屁，那就太倒霉了。
@Guantimasao
What about Singapore???? Why are you obsessed with China ???
那新加坡呢？？？？为什么你老是执迷于报道中国 ？？？
@AlfredYHV
The US has many servants in the West, and bondservants in Africa/Middle-east, and guard dogs in Asia; the difference being dogs are not allowed into the master's house!
To wit: Guard dogs are even lower than servants and slaves!
美国在西方有许多仆人，在非洲/中东有契约奴，在亚洲有看门狗；区别在于狗是不允许进主人房子的！也就是说：看门狗的地位比仆人和奴隶还要低！
@lomaxrobert
@AlfredYHV China jealous of Singapore's wealth and success as usual. Next time stick to Chinese culture like Taiwan, instead of European ideas like Communism.
@AlfredYHV 中国一如既往地嫉妒新加坡的财富和成功。下次还是坚持台湾（地区）那种中国传统文化吧，而不是像..主义这种欧洲思想。
@tt-vp5lf
@lomaxrobertTaiwan govt is a pet reared by America and Japan, this is not an act of a China culture society. Singapore is so a tiny country to be envied of by China. Singapore should compare itself to Macau or Hong Kong.
@lomaxrobert 台湾（地区）当局是美日豢养的宠物，这可不是中华文化社会的作为。新加坡太小了，根本不值得中国去羡慕。新加坡应该去和澳门或香港（特区）比一比。
@Loh-h9j
@ lomaxrobert
Personally, I really like Tsai Ing-wen—she’s the best! And the Taiwanese people too, they’re the best representation of the real Chinese people. You’re right, friend.
@lomaxrobert 就我个人而言，我非常喜欢蔡英文——她是最棒的！台湾（地区）人民也是，他们是真正的中国人最好的代表。你是对的，朋友。
@Guantimasao
Singapore channel obsessed with China like bbc and Fox News
新加坡 的频道（指CNA）像BBC和福克斯新闻一样对中国着迷。
@lomaxrobert
@Guantimasao Should be censored like in China, so nothing to hurt our brains.
@Guantimasao 应该像中国那样把它们审查屏蔽掉，这样就不会有任何东西伤害我们的大脑了。
@hermesliteratus882
For CNA, a day without talking about China is a day wasted.
对亚洲新闻台（CNA）来说，一天不谈论中国，这一天就算白过了。
@colafish2152
I suggest adding "but at what cost?" at the end of title, which could better reveal the true function of CNA, that is brainwashing audience to hate China.
我建议在标题末尾加上“但代价是什么？”，这样能更好地揭露亚洲新闻台（CNA）的真实功能，那就是洗脑观众去仇恨中国。
@Konviction-q6u
Yea right, ofc countries will come out and say they not lacking of oil. You expect them to say they lacking and cause major panic?
是啊没错，当然各个国家都会站出来说他们不缺石油。难不成你还指望他们说自己缺油，从而引发重大恐慌吗？
@ssuwandi3240
And war missions cancelled ?
那战争任务取消了吗？
@sjsrana
Well said #mar2026ET times
说得好。#2026年3月《经济学人》时报。
@Loh-h9j
Bigger cushion, huh? Trying to sound politically correct so as not to rile that big country? Hogwash! Let the facts speak for themselves here.
更厚实的缓冲，哼？试图听起来政治正确以便不激怒那个大国？废话连篇！让事实说话吧。
China pumps out about 5 million barrels of crude oil per day, but it guzzles 15 to 17 million. That means it has to import 10 to 12 million barrels every single day just to keep the lights on. And get this, about 40 percent of that oil has to squeeze through the Strait of Hormuz, a tiny chokepoint now basically controlled by the Iranians. Two Chinese ships got blocked and sent back. What a joke. Meanwhile, Malaysian ships sail through without a hitch. Suddenly, China’s energy security looks pretty shaky. Do not let anyone fool you into thinking China is self-sufficient. They are miles away from it and totally hooked on imports.
中国每天产出约500万桶原油，但其消耗量高达1500万至1700万桶。这意味着它每天必须进口1000万至1200万桶原油才能维持运转。听好了，这其中大约40%的石油必须挤过霍尔木兹海峡，这个狭窄的咽喉要道现在基本上被伊朗人控制着。两艘中国船只被拦截并被遣返，真是笑话。与此同时，马来西亚的船只却畅通无阻地驶过。突然之间，中国的能源安全看起来相当不稳固了。别让任何人愚弄你，让你以为中国是自给自足的。他们离那还差得远，完全依赖进口。
Thinking solar panels could save the day? Sure, they help generate electricity, but sorry to pop your bubble. Sunlight cannot replace oil for transport, industry, or strategic reserves.
以为太阳能板能拯救世界？当然，它们有助于发电，但很抱歉要戳破你的泡沫了，阳光无法在运输、工业或战略储备方面取代石油。
Compare with Singapore. We are in a better situation than China. I don’t have the time to analyse here.
In conclusion, the world is in this huge mess because that big bully called Uncle Sam wanted Iran’s oil. Everyone knows it. I’m giving it to you straight, no fluff, no drama.
与新加坡相比，我们的处境比中国好。我在这没时间详细分析。
总而言之，世界陷入如此巨大的混乱，是因为那个名叫山姆大叔的大恶霸想要伊朗的石油。每个人心里都清楚。我直接把大实话告诉你，不掺水，不演戏。
@jacybongo2589
No one is saying they won't be affected. However they are said to have 1.2 billion barrels of oil reserves that they have stock piled which will definitely delay (not stop) the impact that other nations such as japan and south korea would face more quickly. Again delay not stop. Either way it will be a global crisis for everyone aside from the us who is energy self-sufficient and perhaps russia although their energy infrastructure is getting hit to some degree as a result of ukraine strikes
没人说他们不会受到影响。不过据说他们囤积了12亿桶的石油储备，这肯定会延缓（而不是阻止）这种冲击，而日本和韩国等其他国家会更快面临这种冲击。再次强调，是延缓而不是阻止。不管怎样，这对除美国（能源自给自足）之外的每个人来说都将是一场全球危机，俄罗斯或许也除外，尽管他们的能源基础设施因乌克兰的袭击而受到了一定程度的打击。
@ihatecabbage7270
Yeah thief, stealing subsidized gasoline from Malaysia is definition of better situation. XD At least you get to steal fuel for cheap, we're stuck here with 8 dollars per gallon. China is screwed lol.
是啊小偷，从马来西亚偷取有补贴的汽油就是你所谓的“更好的处境”吗？XD。至少你们还能偷到便宜的燃料，而我们被困在这里忍受每加仑8美元的油价。C完蛋了，哈哈。
@Loh-h9j
@ihatecabbage7270
Oh wow, yes, we Singaporeans must be the world’s biggest fuel thieves. Maybe next you’ll accuse us of smuggling the Petronas CEO too. News flash: Singapore doesn’t “steal” anything. If anything, Malaysians should thank us for keeping your overpriced petrol dreams alive while you rant online. $8 a gallon? Ouch, that must sting. Maybe focus on fixing your own prices instead of pointing fingers, genius.
@ihatecabbage7270
哦哇，是的，我们新加坡人一定是世界上最大牌的燃料小偷。也许下一步你就要指控我们连马来西亚国家石油公司（Petronas）的CEO也给走私过来了。简讯：新加坡没有“偷”任何东西。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是当你在网上大发牢骚时，马来西亚人应该感谢我们维持住了你们昂贵汽油的梦想。每加仑8美元？哎哟，那一定很心痛吧。也许应该专注于解决你们自己的物价问题，而不是指手画脚，天才。
@Loh-h9j
@jacybongo2589
China proudly claims 1.2 billion barrels in reserves. Sounds impressive, right? Too bad at 16 million barrels a day, it only lasts about 2.5 months. That is barely a cushion. No wonder they are sweating over every tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
CNA really needs a proper analyst to talk about the real situation. She cannot even do simple math in her head. Linguist maybe, but mostly just talking out of her arse. Honestly, just take any primary school student in Singapore. They would make a better analysis of the situation based on facts and figures and actually assess what is really going on. These so-called analysts are just full of BS and that is the honest truth. They are not experts at all. Just re watch how she talks . I rest my case
@jacybongo2589
中国自豪地声称拥有12亿桶储备。听起来令人印象深刻，对吧？可惜如果按每天消耗1600万桶计算，这也只能维持大约2.5个月。这勉强算是个缓冲。难怪他们对每艘通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮都捏一把汗。亚洲新闻台（CNA）真的需要一个正儿八经的分析师来谈谈真实情况。她连心算简单的数学都不会。可能是个语言学家吧，但基本上只是在胡说八道。说实话，随便找一个新加坡的小学生，他们都能根据事实和数据对局势做出更好的分析，并切实评估到底发生了什么。这些所谓的分析师满嘴胡言，这就是大实话。他们根本不是专家。去重温一下她是怎么说话的吧。我言尽于此。
@jacybongo2589
@Loh-h9j I agree
@Loh-h9j 我同意。
@YunfengLu-r1r
@Loh@Loh-h9jhave you counted 5m barrels that China produces itself and plus another 60% import from other countries. Also have you counted in in full power how much more barrels that Russian can gush out through pipes as well as other middle Asian countries. Who is talking BS? Furthermore, the coal power plants are only running around 50%. China has unlimited coal!
@Loh@Loh-h9j 你算没算中国自己生产的500万桶，再加上从其他国家进口的另外60%？另外，你有没有算过如果火力全开，俄罗斯通过管道还能喷涌出多少桶，以及其他中亚国家？到底谁在胡说八道？此外，煤电厂目前仅以50%左右的负荷运行，中国拥有无限的煤炭！
@NotSoFat
@Loh-h9j 2.5 months yes. That's only if they are not importing anything and Iran's share of their imports is 11%. And your narrative sounds like China is importing everything through the Strait of Hormuz. So they will definitely last way more than 2.5 months.
@Loh-h9j 2.5个月没错。但那是在他们不进行任何进口、且伊朗占其进口份额为11%的极端假设下。而且你的叙事听起来好像中国所有的东西都是通过霍尔木兹海峡进口的。所以他们撑的时间肯定远不止2.5个月。
@Loh-h9j
@YunfengLu-r1r
Let’s get real about China’s oil situation. Sure, they produce about 5 million barrels a day, but they actually consume around 15 to 17 million. That means they have to import roughly 10 to 12 million barrels every single day just to keep everything running. And about 40 percent of that goes through the Strait of Hormuz, a single chokepoint that is super vulnerable. One hiccup there and things get messy fast.
让我们务实地看看中国的石油状况吧。当然，他们每天生产约500万桶，但实际消耗量在1500万至1700万桶左右。这意味着他们每天必须进口大约1000万至1200万桶，才能维持一切正常运转。这其中大约40%要经过霍尔木兹海峡，这是一个超级脆弱的单一咽喉要道。那里只要出一点差错，事情很快就会变得一团糟。
Now, yes, Russia and other Central Asian countries can send more oil, but pipelines have limits. You cannot just magically reroute millions of barrels overnight. Saying otherwise is ignoring reality.
@YunfengLu-r1r
现在，是的，俄罗斯和其他中亚国家可以运送更多石油，但管道有其运力限制。你不可能一夜之间奇迹般地重新规划数百万桶石油的路线。否认这一点就是无视现实。
And let’s talk coal. China has tons of it, but coal cannot replace oil for transportation, shipping, aviation, or heavy industry. Unlimited coal does not mean unlimited energy for everything. That is just basic energy economics.
我们再谈谈煤炭。中国有海量的煤炭，但煤炭无法在运输、航运、航空或重工业中取代石油。无限的煤炭并不意味着所有领域都有无限的能源。这只是基本的能源经济学。
Bottom line, China’s energy situation is not some non-issue. Heavy reliance on imports, vulnerable chokepoints, and the limits of alternative energy make it a real challenge. This is not BS, it is just the facts.
归根结底，中国的能源状况绝非无关紧要的小事。重度依赖进口、脆弱的咽喉要道以及替代能源的局限性使其成为一个真正的挑战。这绝非废话，这就是事实。
@Loh-h9j
Ok my fellow countrymen …
Don’t worry about Singapore just yet. Here’s the secret. Our energy game is tight. Lee Kuan Yew foresaw the risks of Middle East conflicts decades ago and Singapore planned accordingly. We diversify our oil imports across multiple countries. But it is not just about storage.
Jurong Island is the heart of our petroleum industry, where we refine crude into all kinds of fuels such as jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline. That means we are not just storing oil. We are turning it into usable energy efficiently.
好的，我的同胞们……
现在还不用担心新加坡。秘诀就在这里。我们的能源博弈非常严密。李光耀几十年前就预见到了中东冲突的风险，新加坡据此做了相应的规划。我们将石油进口分散到多个国家。但这不仅仅关乎储存。裕廊岛是我们石油工业的心脏，我们在那里将原油提炼成各种燃料，如航空燃料、柴油和汽油。这意味着我们不仅仅是在储存石油。我们正在高效地将其转化为可用的能源。
On top of that, Singapore has some of the world’s busiest and most advanced seaports, allowing us to manage imports, exports, and re-exports with unmatched flexibility. Even if something happens in the Strait of Hormuz, Singapore can handle it. Our strategic reserves, refining capability, and port infrastructure mean we can ride out disruptions for weeks without breaking a sweat. That is why bigger, less flexible consumers panic over every tanker delay or price spike, but Singapore keeps quietly running like clockwork. Preparation, diversification, and smart infrastructure is our secret.
Side note : Singapore just sent oil over to down under recently ..wink wink
最重要的是，新加坡拥有一些世界上最繁忙、最先进的海港，使我们能够以无与伦比的灵活性管理进口、出口和转口。即使霍尔木兹海峡发生什么事，新加坡也能应对。我们的战略储备、炼油能力和港口基础设施意味着我们可以在不费吹灰之力的情况下度过数周的中断期。这就是为什么更大、灵活性较差的消费者会因为油轮延误或价格飙升而恐慌，而新加坡却像钟表一样安静、精准地运转。做好准备、多样化和智能基础设施就是我们的秘密。
顺带一提：新加坡最近刚向澳大利亚输送了石油……懂的都懂。
@Loh-h9j
@NotSoFatyour name is hilarious, I like it ha ha buddy
You’re right that China could probably last longer than 2.5 months (if )alternative imports keep flowing. The Strait of Hormuz is a big deal for a lot of Asian economies. Japan, for example, is even more exposed, with 70 to 90 percent of its oil passing through Hormuz and most of it coming straight from the Middle East—they’re seriously so screwed . Singapore, by contrast, has diversified sources and built up strategic stockpiles, so we’re in a much safer spot when it comes to short-term disruptions. Long term? Lol, I can’t really say, but we’ll see what happens. There are a few possible scenarios, and we could treat this as a challenge to test our resilience .
@NotSoFat 你的名字太搞笑了，我喜欢，哈哈，老兄。
你是对的，（如果）替代进口渠道保持畅通，中国撑的时间可能会超过2.5个月。霍尔木兹海峡对许多亚洲经济体来说都至关重要。例如日本的风险敞口甚至更大，其70%到90%的石油都要经过霍尔木兹，且大部分直接来自中东——他们真的彻底完蛋了。相比之下，新加坡拥有多元化的来源并建立了战略储备，因此在应对短期供应中断时，我们处在一个安全得多的位置。长期来看呢？哈哈，我真的说不准，但让我们拭目以待吧。有几种可能的情景，我们可以把这当作测试我们韧性的一个挑战。
@lagrangewei
the ship that got turn back wasn't tanker. and you are missing the point, the point is they have trillion of barrel of oil stockpile. it is the same with Singapore, it why we don't have the type of price shock Thailand and Philippines is experiencing. furthermore Chine is the largest electricity producer in the world, 1/3 of all electricity is produce in China, they can just replace cars with EV. Singapore has LESS RESERVE than China does. furthermore, our energy depend on gas not oil, and that is going to be a problem sooner since it is harder to stock on gas than oil which is more dense and easier to store. you don't really know anything if you think we are better off than China.
被劝返的那艘船并不是油轮。而且你没抓到重点，重点是他们拥有万亿桶（注：此处誇大或笔误，应为10亿多桶）的石油储备。新加坡也是如此，这就是为什么我们没有经历泰国和菲律宾正在经历的那种物价冲击。此外，中国是世界上第一大发电国，全球1/3的电力是在中国生产的，他们大可以用电动汽车取代燃油车。新加坡的储备比中国少。而且，我们的能源依赖的是天然气而不是石油，而这迟早会成为一个问题，因为天然气比密度更大、更容易储存的石油更难储存。如果你认为我们的处境比中国好，那你真是一无所知。
@Loh-h9j
@lagrangewei
First, you are right that the ship that turned back wasn’t an oil tanker, but that detail doesn’t prove the point you are trying to make. The larger issue isn’t about one ship being turned back, it’s about global supply chains and market confidence. In energy markets, perception matters as much as stockpiles, and disruptions anywhere in major sea lanes like the Strait of Hormuz affect prices everywhere.
@lagrangewei
首先，你是对的，折返回去的那艘船不是油轮，但这一细节并不能证明你试图表达的观点。更大的问题不在于一艘船被劝返，而在于全球供应链和市场信心。在能源市场中，心理预期和库存一样重要，像霍尔木兹海峡这样的主要海上航道发生任何中断，都会影响到各地的价格。
Second, you mentioned China has trillions of barrels of oil stockpiled. While China does maintain strategic petroleum reserves, the idea that China has enough to completely shield itself from global energy shocks indefinitely is not accurate. Strategic reserves are meant to buffer short-term disruptions, not to replace ongoing imports or prevent price movements forever. Even if a country has reserves, futures markets, global demand, and shipping costs still drive price changes around the world.
其次，你提到中国囤积了数万亿桶石油。虽然中国确实维持着战略石油储备，但认为中国有足够的储备可以无限期地完全隔绝全球能源冲击的想法是不准确的。战略储备旨在缓冲短期中断，而不是为了永久取代持续的进口或永远阻止价格波动。即使一个国家拥有储备，期货市场、全球需求和航运成本仍然会推动全球的价格变动。
Third, Singapore doesn’t experience the same price shocks as Thailand or the Philippines not because of huge oil reserves, but because Singapore’s economy is highly diversified, very connected globally, and quick to adjust. Singapore’s role as a refining and trading hub means it isn’t just a consumer. It has supply chain flexibility, access to diversified supply sources, and rapid redistribution capabilities that help stabilize prices. Price shocks aren’t just about reserves, they are about market structure and agility.
第三，新加坡没有经历像泰国或菲律宾那样的价格冲击，不是因为巨额石油储备，而是因为新加坡经济高度多元化，与全球紧密相连，且调整迅速。新加坡作为炼油和贸易中心的角色意味着它不仅仅是一个消费者。它拥有供应链的灵活性、获取多元化供应来源的渠道以及快速重新分配的能力，这些都有助于稳定价格。价格冲击不仅关乎储备，更关乎市场结构和敏捷性。
Fourth, it’s true that China is the largest electricity producer in the world. Producing a third of the world’s electricity doesn’t automatically mean China can instantly replace all cars with electric vehicles. China’s electricity production includes a very large share of coal, which has its own environmental and supply issues. EV adoption also depends on infrastructure, grid capacity, battery supply chains, and consumer cost — things that take years or decades to fully build out.
第四，中国确实是世界上最大的发电国。但生产全球三分之一的电力并不自动意味着中国可以立即将所有汽车换成电动车。中国的发电量中包含很大一部分煤炭，煤炭自身也存在环境和供应问题。电动汽车的普及还取决于基础设施、电网容量、电池供应链和消费者成本——这些都是需要几年甚至几十年才能完全建成的。
Fifth, you are right that Singapore’s energy dependence is mostly on natural gas rather than oil, and gas is harder to stockpile. But Singapore’s strategy focuses on LNG import diversification, bilateral supply agreements, and strategic storage facilities. It isn’t a weakness in isolation. It’s a calculated choice based on Singapore’s size and trade-oriented economy, not a sign that Singapore is worse off than China.
第五，你是对的，新加坡的能源依赖主要在于天然气而不是石油，天然气确实更难储备。但新加坡的战略侧重于液化天然气（LNG）进口的多元化、双边供应协议和战略储存设施。孤立来看，这并不是劣势，而是基于新加坡的体量和贸易型经济做出的深思熟虑的选择，并不意味着新加坡的处境比中国更差。
Finally, comparing better off simply based on energy reserves misses the bigger picture. National well-being includes economic stability, governance, adaptability, quality of life, and ability to integrate global markets, not just how many barrels of oil you have in storage. Singapore may not have massive reserves, but it has sophisticated financial markets, strong institutions, and global connectivity that many larger countries do not.
最后，单纯基于能源储备来比较处境好坏，忽略了宏观大局。国家福祉包括经济稳定性、治理、适应能力、生活质量和融入全球市场的能力，而不仅仅是你仓库里存了多少桶石油。新加坡可能没有庞大的储备，但它拥有精密的金融市场、强大的体制和许多大国所不具备的全球连通性。
No, thinking Singapore is automatically worse off than China just because of reserves or electricity production is a narrow view. Energy resilience is a complex system of supply, demand, diversification, and adaptability, and on those measures, Singapore holds its own very well.
不，仅仅因为储备或发电量就认为新加坡的处境必然比中国差，是一种狭隘的看法。能源韧性是一个涉及供应、需求、多元化和适应能力的复杂系统，在这些衡量标准上，新加坡表现得非常出色。
This entire crisis is the consequence of Uncle Sam’s insatiable greed for Iranian oil. Every nation across the globe is feeling the impact of this war. The real question is how to endure and navigate its fallout. Countries everywhere are scrambling even as we speak.God help us all
这场危机完全是山姆大叔对伊朗石油贪得无厌的贪婪所带来的后果。全球每个国家都在承受这场战争的冲击。真正的问题是如何熬过去并渡过其余震。就在我们说话的同时，各地的国家都在争相应对。愿上帝保佑我们所有人。
@wangchung7599
@Loh-h9j That's what PRC is doing. It's still importing more than it uses. It's hoarding oil.
@Loh-h9j 这正是中国正在做的事。它进口的量仍然超过了其消耗的量。它正在囤积石油。
@jianyang6281
my friend, ever heard of "coal chemical"? even if China doesnt enhances its coal chemical industry, it still produce 50% energy of the amount oftotal import, plus we can still import from piplelines. China will be safe, dont worry about it.
我的朋友，听说过“煤化工”吗？即使中国不增强其煤化工产业，它依然能自产相当于总进口量50%的能源，加上我们仍然可以通过管道进口。中国会很安全的，不用为此担心。
@Loh-h9j
@jianyang6281yes friend I know a little chemistry , Look, coal could help China survive an oil shortage. There is tons of it, and they know how to turn it into fuel. But let’s be real. It is not cheap, it takes forever to set up, and the environmental hit is brutal with tons of CO₂ and massive water use. Sure, it might be a backup plan in a pinch, but calling it a real replacement for oil is just wishful thinking. And that is before you even get to the crazy food prices. People are going to lose jobs, and prices are going to skyrocket. Even if you fix the oil problem, life is still going to be rough for ordinary people. The same goes for Singapore too. No country is spared. The question is, who is going to be the worst off, and which country will survive this crisis and manage the best.
@jianyang6281 是的朋友，我懂一点化学。听着，煤炭确实可以帮助中国挺过石油短缺。煤炭数量庞大，而且他们知道如何将其转化为燃料。但让我们现实一点吧：这并不便宜，建立起来需要耗费大量时间，而且对环境的打击是残酷的，会产生大量的二氧化碳和海量的水资源消耗。当然，在紧要关头它可能是个备用方案，但把它当成石油的真正替代品纯属痴心妄想。这还没算上疯狂的粮食价格呢。人们会失业，物价会飞涨。即使你解决了石油问题，老百姓的日子依然会很难过。新加坡也是如此。没有哪个国家能幸免。问题在于，谁将是处境最惨的，而哪个国家又能挺过这场危机且应对得最好。
At the end of the day, I really hope the best for the Chinese people. I don’t wish anyone suffering. The same goes for Iranians, Americans, or anyone else on this planet. Citizens are just trying to live their lives. It is the governments that often make the mess.
归根结底，我真心祝愿中国人民一切都好。我不希望任何人遭受苦难。对伊朗人、美国人或这个星球上的任何其他人也是如此。普通公民只是想过好自己的生活，往往是政府搞砸了一切。
@Loh-h9j
@wangchung7599 Friend, you are so cute. It’s not wrong for China to hoard oil. They’re just protecting their national interests, like any country would. They didn’t try to steal from anyone—unlike Uncle Sam, lol—they bought their crude oil fair and square. If Singapore had more land and resources, we’d probably do the same. We just need to be fair and truthful in our thinking and judgment here ok ? They did no wrong .
@wangchung7599 朋友，你太可爱了。中国囤积石油并没有错。他们只是像任何国家一样在保护自己的国家利益。他们没有试图去偷任何人的东西——不像山姆大叔，哈哈——他们是公平公正地购买原油的。如果新加坡有更多的土地和资源，我们可能也会做同样的事。我们在思考和判断时只需要保持公平和真实，好吗？他们没有做错任何事。
@wangchung7599
@Loh-h9j You are right.
Lee Kuan Yew famously said that what Singapore can do, China can do better.
As Singapore is small, it is much easier to store 9 months of essential oil than it is for China.
However, the sheer size of China makes going beyond 3 months a massive logistical challenge.
@Loh-h9j 你是对的。李光耀曾有一句名言：凡是新加坡能做到的，中国都能做得更好。因为新加坡很小，所以储备9个月的基本用油比中国容易得多。然而，由于中国的庞大体量，让储备量超过3个月会是一个巨大的后勤挑战。
@TheHongbu
@Loh-h9j You have listed the data yourself, why don't you calculate the result but draw a conclusion directly instead? China needs to import 10 million barrels of oil per month, 40% of which must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which means the shortfall is 10 million * 40% = 4 million barrels. Please tell me, how many days is 1.2 billion barrels / 4 million barrels? Not to mention, if China increases imports from Russia and Central Asia by 2 million barrels per day, the gap will only be 4 million - 2 million = 2 million barrels. How many days is 1.2 billion / 2 million? Also, who told you that the capacity of the oil pipeline is limited? According to public information, the utilization rate of the China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline is only 20%, and that of the China-Russia oil pipeline is only 50%. If the utilization rates of both pipelines are increased to 100%, China can basically meet all its annual needs. By 2035, China will make EVs account for 80% of all vehicles (currently only 12%), and the demand for oil will also be greatly reduced by then. China's situation is much safer than Singapore's. You'd better worry more about your little Singapore.
@Loh-h9j 你自己都已经把数据列出来了， 为什么却不计算结果而直接得出结果呢？每月需进口1000万桶石油，其中40%必须经过霍尔木兹海峡，也就是说缺口为1000万*40%=400万桶。请告诉我，12亿桶/400万桶是多少天？更别提，中国如果每天从俄罗斯与中亚增加进口200万桶的话，那么缺口就只剩下400万-200万=200万桶了，12亿/200万是多少天？还有，谁告诉你输油管道运力有限？根据公开资料，中国与哈萨克斯坦输油管道的利用率仅为20%，中国与俄罗斯的输油管道利用率仅为50%，把这两条管道的利用率都提高到100%，则中国可以基本满足每年的全部需求。而到2035年时中国会使电动车占全部保有车辆的80%（现在仅12%），到时候对石油的需求也会大大降低。中国的处境比新加坡要安全得多，还是多担心担心你们坡县吧。
@JayTse-x7l
No sense to argue. Wait 6 months, China’s trade surplus will keep on trucking, whereas the rest of the world not dealing with China will suffer.
争论毫无意义。等上6个月，中国的贸易顺差仍将继续滚滚向前，而世界上其他不与中国打交道的国家将会遭受痛苦。
@Loh-h9j
@TheHongbu Look friend , your entire argument breaks down because your base numbers are wrong and your assumptions don’t reflect how energy systems actually work. China does not import 10 million barrels per month—it imports about 10 to 11 million barrels per day. If roughly 40% flows through the Strait of Hormuz, that’s a potential disruption of about 4 to 4.5 million barrels per day, not per month.
@TheHongbu 听着朋友，你的整个论点之所以站不住脚，是因为你的基础数据错了，而且你的假设没有反映出能源系统实际的运作方式。中国并不是每月进口1000万桶——它是每天进口大约1000万到1100万桶。如果大约40%流经霍尔木兹海峡，这意味着每天可能有400万到450万桶的供应中断风险，而不是每月。
Now let’s do the math correctly. If you take 1.2 billion barrels and divide by a 4 million barrel per day shortfall, you get about 300 days, but that number is misleading because those barrels include strategic petroleum reserves, which are not fully usable and are released gradually, not all at once. If the shortfall is reduced to 2 million barrels per day, then yes, mathematically that gives about 600 days, but again, that assumes full, unrestricted access to reserves, which is not how they are designed to be used. On your pipeline point, low utilization rates do not mean spare supply. Pipelines depend on upstream production capacity, existing supply contracts, and geopolitical constraints.
现在让我们正确地做一下数学计算：如果你拿12亿桶除以每天400万桶的缺口，你会得到大约300天。但这个数字是有误导性的，因为这些桶数包括了战略石油储备，这些储备并不能完全无限制使用，它们是逐步释放的，而不是一次性全部释放。如果缺口减少到每天200万桶，那么是的，从数学上讲可以维持大约600天。但同样，这假设的是对储备拥有完全、无限制的使用权，而储备的设计初衷并不是这样用的。关于你提到的管道问题，利用率低并不等同于有备用供应。管道的运力取决于上游的生产能力、现有的供应合同以及地缘政治的制约。
Russia and Central Asia cannot simply increase output overnight by 2 million barrels per day to fill those pipelines.Even today, Russia is already redirecting large volumes to China, and there are real limits to how much more it can send. More importantly, even if China offsets some physical supply loss, a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would remove a huge portion of global oil supply, driving global prices sharply higher, which China cannot avoid as the world’s largest importer. Your EV argument is also long-term and irrelevant to a short-term crisis. Even by 2035, sectors like aviation, petrochemicals, shipping, and heavy industry will still rely heavily on oil. And finally, comparing China to Singapore misses the point. China may have larger reserves, but it also has massively higher demand and a more complex, energy-intensive economy, making it highly exposed to shocks. So while your math looks clean, it’s based on flawed inputs and unrealistic assumptions. In reality, China is not nearly as insulated as you’re suggesting.
俄罗斯和中亚不可能一夜之间就把每天的产量提高200万桶来填满这些管道。哪怕在今天，俄罗斯已经在向中国转移大量资源，能再增加多少存在着现实的局限性。更重要的是，即使中国弥补了部分物理供应损失，霍尔木兹海峡的中断也会抽走全球石油供应的巨大份额，从而推高全球油价，作为世界第一大进口国的中国也无法避免这一点。你的电动车论点也是长期的，与短期的危机无关。哪怕到了2035年，航空、石化、航运和重工业等部门仍将高度依赖石油。最后，拿中国和新加坡相比偏离了重点。中国可能拥有更大的储备，但它同样拥有高得多的需求和更复杂、更密集耗能的经济，这使得它极易受到冲击。所以，虽然你的数学看起来很利落，但它是建立在错误的数据输入和不切实际的假设之上的。在现实中，中国绝没有你所暗示的那么刀枪不入。
no one wants to see the Chinese people suffer, or the Iranian or American people. My country, Singapore, won’t be spared either, okay? I wish your country all the best in managing this crisis, and I hope you guys get through it unscathed. I really do. The same goes for my country. I was just refuting what the analyst in the video was saying because I disagree.
没人希望看到中国人民受苦，或者伊朗人民、美国人民受苦。我的国家新加坡也无法幸免，好吗？祝愿贵国在应对这场危机中一切顺利，我希望你们能毫发无损地挺过去。我真心这么希望，对我的国家也是如此。我之前只是反驳视频里分析师说的话，因为我不同意。
The world need to remember, the US and Israel brought us into this abyss.
全世界都需要记住，是美国和以色列把我们带入了深渊。
@tan83ful
Not really. Iran is also part of them mess. The supreme leader of Iran is partly the cause….
不见得。伊朗 也是这团乱局的一部分。伊朗的最高领袖在一定程度上也是起因……
@tank_kind_7
@tan83fulYou can thank US and Israel for this.
@tan83ful 这事儿你得感谢美国和以色列。
@tan83ful
@tank_kind_7Thanks but no thanks Iran
@tank_kind_7 谢谢，但还是免了吧，伊朗 。
@lomaxrobert
Whenever you hear a Chinese official number or statement, ask what would happen to any Chinese journalist or analyst who questioned it.
每当你听到中国官方的数据或声明时，不妨问问任何敢于质疑这些数据的中国记者或分析师会面临什么后果。
@vincecarlo
EXACTLY
The WAR MONGERS Isreal n US put the WHOLE WORLD in this UTTER MESS
一点没错。以色列和美国这两个好战分子把整个世界拖入了这片彻头彻尾的混乱之中。
@morbid747
@tan83fulHe's an 86 year old man sick and dying of cancer. Getting rid of him serve no purpose.
@tan83ful 他是一个身患癌症、行将就木的86岁老人。除掉他也无济于事。
@Complicitur
The moral of the story is don't be complicit with AIPAC
这个故事的寓意是不要与美以公共事务委员会（AIPAC）同流合污。
@lagrangewei
People tend to forget that China is top 10 oil producer... they production over a million barrel.... that is as much oil as the gulf states.
人们往往忘记了中国也是排名前十的产油国……他们的产量超过100万桶（注：实际约为400多万桶）……这和海湾国家的产油量差不多。
@jogana6909
Since the war, the sales of electric vehicles in China have surged.
Of course, this can't solve all problems.
But don't forget, China has been buying crude oil from Russia and Iran (never stopped).
自战争爆发以来，中国电动汽车的销量大幅飙升。当然，这解决不了所有问题。但别忘了，中国一直在从俄罗斯和伊朗购买原油（从未停止）。
@FocusEastFirst
That's right, China ranks fifth in oil production, close to fourth-place Canada, with a daily output of 5 million barrels.
没错，中国生产石油排名第五，跟第四名的加拿大差不多，日产量500万桶。
@mknndvcvv
But according to the enemy of China. The US attacks on Venezuela & Iran are ultimately aimed at cutting off fuel supplies to China, with the underlying motive being to weaken and ultimately attack China. Meanwhile, some US allies are now begging fertilizer supplies from China.
但根据中国的敌人的说法，美国对委内瑞拉和伊朗的袭击最终目的是为了切断对中国的燃料供应，其潜在动机是削弱并最终攻击中国。与此同时，一些美国的盟友现在正乞求中国供应化肥。
@hermesliteratus882
Begging is definitely the right word in this context, especially for Modi.
在这种语境下，“乞求”绝对是个恰当的词，尤其是对莫迪而言。
@UpShiftTypeR
Kissenger used to say being a lapdog of the usa is fatal. Iran just proved that.
基辛格过去常说，做美国的走狗是致命的。伊朗刚刚证明了这一点。
@markchan8110
Is about time Asia especially SEA move towards electrifying it's energy infrastructure with more renewable energy like wind, solar and even Thorium nuclear reactor rather too dependent on oil and gas.
亚洲特别是东南亚是时候走向能源基础设施电气化了，多利用风能、太阳能甚至钍核反应堆等可再生能源，而不是过度依赖石油和天然气。
@ertruty-r2i
Oil isn’t just a commodity — it’s a driving force behind geopolitics, economic trends, and global power dynamics. Any change in production or pricing creates ripple effects across industries and nations. To understand oil is to understand how the modern world truly functions.
石油不仅仅是一种大宗商品——它是地缘政治、经济趋势和全球权力动态背后的推动力。产量或价格的任何变化都会在各个行业和国家间产生连锁反应。理解了石油，才算真正理解了现代世界是如何运作的。
@MarvinChenFantasy
According to the media, there're all kinds of collapses in China, yearly, oil shortage can be a easy one. China will be fine, as always.
根据媒体的报道，中国每年都在发生各种各样的“崩溃”，石油短缺可能只是其中轻而易举的一个。中国会没事的，一如既往。
@k54122
Singapore needs nuclear reactors ASAP.
新加坡需要尽快建造核反应堆。
@tank_kind_7
well played Chinaman
玩得漂亮，中国人。
@HillarySmith-u8j
China’s debt issue isn’t defined solely by its scale—it’s shaped by its underlying structure. A large portion is held by local governments and property developers, heavily tied to infrastructure investment and the housing market. The real concern isn’t the presence of debt, but whether continued growth and effective restructuring can keep the risks in check over time.
中国的债务问题不仅由其规模决定，更由其底层结构决定。其中很大一部分由地方政府和房地产开发商持有，深度绑定在基建投资和房地产市场上。真正的担忧不在于债务的存在，而在于长期的持续增长和有效的结构重组能否将风险控制在合理范围内。
@jianyang6281
somehow a word pops up in my mind "V2G" EV send its electricity to the grid. EV get to charge in day time from solar, and give the charge back to the grid in night time. If this crisis keeps going, I beleive this would be the laststand of China.
不知道为什么我脑海里冒出一个词叫“V2G（车载外放电，车辆到电网）”，即电动车向电网反向输送电能。电动车可以在白天通过太阳能充电，并在夜间将电量回馈给电网。如果这场危机持续下去，我相信这会成为中国的终极王牌。
@yz8233
LMao, China's energy self-sufficiency ranks third in the world, while Singapore relies entirely on imports for energy. Don't forget China produces its own oil and also has oil and gas pipelines from Russia and Central Asia. China is the country best prepared for this kind of situation in the whole world.
笑死，中国能源自主排全世界第三。而新加坡能源全靠进口。别忘了中国自身产油，也有俄罗斯和中亚的油气管道。中国是全世界面对这种局面准备最多的国家。
@Konushku
Just use less electricity
少用点电不就得了。
@vincecarlo
PUSHING for EV is PURELY DUMB then
LOL
那强推电动汽车纯粹就是愚蠢了。笑死。
@hermesliteratus882
China has ‘bigger cushion’ of oil stock to weather energy crisis, but at what cost?
中国拥有“更厚实”的石油储备缓冲来渡过能源危机，但代价是什么呢？。
@rwwc0306
Newsflash: China is 85% self-sufficient regarding its energy consumption needs and is the best prepared by a wide margin amongst every country in the ongoing supply shock
简讯：中国在能源消费需求方面的自给率达到了85%，在当前这场供应冲击中，它是所有国家里准备最充分的一个，且大幅领先。
@jeff6161
This is a good wake up call for the world to not take energy for granted. There’s a limit and it’s a finite resource. Time for us to go big on solar especially for tropical regions
这给全世界敲响了警钟，不要把能源当成理所当然的事。能源是有极限的，它是一种有限的资源。是时候让我们大力发展太阳能了，尤其是热带地区。
@Windsong323
Chinese government are good planners.
They constructed electricity grid, storage for oils etc…..at least 3-6 months.
中国政府是出色的规划者。他们建设了电网、石油储备等……至少能撑3到6个月。
@hermesliteratus882
They have strategic vision.
他们有战略眼光。
@JayTse-x7l
People are stupid. Chinese oil tankers are going through as per Iran instructions. All tankers pay with yuan can also go through Hormuz, what’s the problem. If any country still kisses Trump’s butt by using USD, too bad.
人们太蠢了。中国的油轮是按照伊朗的指令通行的。所有用人民币结算的油轮也都可以通过霍尔木兹海峡，这有什么问题。如果还有国家坚持使用美元来拍特朗普的马屁，那就太倒霉了。
@Guantimasao
What about Singapore???? Why are you obsessed with China ???
那新加坡呢？？？？为什么你老是执迷于报道中国 ？？？
@AlfredYHV
The US has many servants in the West, and bondservants in Africa/Middle-east, and guard dogs in Asia; the difference being dogs are not allowed into the master's house!
To wit: Guard dogs are even lower than servants and slaves!
美国在西方有许多仆人，在非洲/中东有契约奴，在亚洲有看门狗；区别在于狗是不允许进主人房子的！也就是说：看门狗的地位比仆人和奴隶还要低！
@lomaxrobert
@AlfredYHV China jealous of Singapore's wealth and success as usual. Next time stick to Chinese culture like Taiwan, instead of European ideas like Communism.
@AlfredYHV 中国一如既往地嫉妒新加坡的财富和成功。下次还是坚持台湾（地区）那种中国传统文化吧，而不是像..主义这种欧洲思想。
@tt-vp5lf
@lomaxrobertTaiwan govt is a pet reared by America and Japan, this is not an act of a China culture society. Singapore is so a tiny country to be envied of by China. Singapore should compare itself to Macau or Hong Kong.
@lomaxrobert 台湾（地区）当局是美日豢养的宠物，这可不是中华文化社会的作为。新加坡太小了，根本不值得中国去羡慕。新加坡应该去和澳门或香港（特区）比一比。
@Loh-h9j
@ lomaxrobert
Personally, I really like Tsai Ing-wen—she’s the best! And the Taiwanese people too, they’re the best representation of the real Chinese people. You’re right, friend.
@lomaxrobert 就我个人而言，我非常喜欢蔡英文——她是最棒的！台湾（地区）人民也是，他们是真正的中国人最好的代表。你是对的，朋友。
@Guantimasao
Singapore channel obsessed with China like bbc and Fox News
新加坡 的频道（指CNA）像BBC和福克斯新闻一样对中国着迷。
@lomaxrobert
@Guantimasao Should be censored like in China, so nothing to hurt our brains.
@Guantimasao 应该像中国那样把它们审查屏蔽掉，这样就不会有任何东西伤害我们的大脑了。
@hermesliteratus882
For CNA, a day without talking about China is a day wasted.
对亚洲新闻台（CNA）来说，一天不谈论中国，这一天就算白过了。
@colafish2152
I suggest adding "but at what cost?" at the end of title, which could better reveal the true function of CNA, that is brainwashing audience to hate China.
我建议在标题末尾加上“但代价是什么？”，这样能更好地揭露亚洲新闻台（CNA）的真实功能，那就是洗脑观众去仇恨中国。
@Konviction-q6u
Yea right, ofc countries will come out and say they not lacking of oil. You expect them to say they lacking and cause major panic?
是啊没错，当然各个国家都会站出来说他们不缺石油。难不成你还指望他们说自己缺油，从而引发重大恐慌吗？
@ssuwandi3240
And war missions cancelled ?
那战争任务取消了吗？
@sjsrana
Well said #mar2026ET times
说得好。#2026年3月《经济学人》时报。
@Loh-h9j
Bigger cushion, huh? Trying to sound politically correct so as not to rile that big country? Hogwash! Let the facts speak for themselves here.
更厚实的缓冲，哼？试图听起来政治正确以便不激怒那个大国？废话连篇！让事实说话吧。
China pumps out about 5 million barrels of crude oil per day, but it guzzles 15 to 17 million. That means it has to import 10 to 12 million barrels every single day just to keep the lights on. And get this, about 40 percent of that oil has to squeeze through the Strait of Hormuz, a tiny chokepoint now basically controlled by the Iranians. Two Chinese ships got blocked and sent back. What a joke. Meanwhile, Malaysian ships sail through without a hitch. Suddenly, China’s energy security looks pretty shaky. Do not let anyone fool you into thinking China is self-sufficient. They are miles away from it and totally hooked on imports.
中国每天产出约500万桶原油，但其消耗量高达1500万至1700万桶。这意味着它每天必须进口1000万至1200万桶原油才能维持运转。听好了，这其中大约40%的石油必须挤过霍尔木兹海峡，这个狭窄的咽喉要道现在基本上被伊朗人控制着。两艘中国船只被拦截并被遣返，真是笑话。与此同时，马来西亚的船只却畅通无阻地驶过。突然之间，中国的能源安全看起来相当不稳固了。别让任何人愚弄你，让你以为中国是自给自足的。他们离那还差得远，完全依赖进口。
Thinking solar panels could save the day? Sure, they help generate electricity, but sorry to pop your bubble. Sunlight cannot replace oil for transport, industry, or strategic reserves.
以为太阳能板能拯救世界？当然，它们有助于发电，但很抱歉要戳破你的泡沫了，阳光无法在运输、工业或战略储备方面取代石油。
Compare with Singapore. We are in a better situation than China. I don’t have the time to analyse here.
In conclusion, the world is in this huge mess because that big bully called Uncle Sam wanted Iran’s oil. Everyone knows it. I’m giving it to you straight, no fluff, no drama.
与新加坡相比，我们的处境比中国好。我在这没时间详细分析。
总而言之，世界陷入如此巨大的混乱，是因为那个名叫山姆大叔的大恶霸想要伊朗的石油。每个人心里都清楚。我直接把大实话告诉你，不掺水，不演戏。
@jacybongo2589
No one is saying they won't be affected. However they are said to have 1.2 billion barrels of oil reserves that they have stock piled which will definitely delay (not stop) the impact that other nations such as japan and south korea would face more quickly. Again delay not stop. Either way it will be a global crisis for everyone aside from the us who is energy self-sufficient and perhaps russia although their energy infrastructure is getting hit to some degree as a result of ukraine strikes
没人说他们不会受到影响。不过据说他们囤积了12亿桶的石油储备，这肯定会延缓（而不是阻止）这种冲击，而日本和韩国等其他国家会更快面临这种冲击。再次强调，是延缓而不是阻止。不管怎样，这对除美国（能源自给自足）之外的每个人来说都将是一场全球危机，俄罗斯或许也除外，尽管他们的能源基础设施因乌克兰的袭击而受到了一定程度的打击。
@ihatecabbage7270
Yeah thief, stealing subsidized gasoline from Malaysia is definition of better situation. XD At least you get to steal fuel for cheap, we're stuck here with 8 dollars per gallon. China is screwed lol.
是啊小偷，从马来西亚偷取有补贴的汽油就是你所谓的“更好的处境”吗？XD。至少你们还能偷到便宜的燃料，而我们被困在这里忍受每加仑8美元的油价。C完蛋了，哈哈。
@Loh-h9j
@ihatecabbage7270
Oh wow, yes, we Singaporeans must be the world’s biggest fuel thieves. Maybe next you’ll accuse us of smuggling the Petronas CEO too. News flash: Singapore doesn’t “steal” anything. If anything, Malaysians should thank us for keeping your overpriced petrol dreams alive while you rant online. $8 a gallon? Ouch, that must sting. Maybe focus on fixing your own prices instead of pointing fingers, genius.
@ihatecabbage7270
哦哇，是的，我们新加坡人一定是世界上最大牌的燃料小偷。也许下一步你就要指控我们连马来西亚国家石油公司（Petronas）的CEO也给走私过来了。简讯：新加坡没有“偷”任何东西。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是当你在网上大发牢骚时，马来西亚人应该感谢我们维持住了你们昂贵汽油的梦想。每加仑8美元？哎哟，那一定很心痛吧。也许应该专注于解决你们自己的物价问题，而不是指手画脚，天才。
@Loh-h9j
@jacybongo2589
China proudly claims 1.2 billion barrels in reserves. Sounds impressive, right? Too bad at 16 million barrels a day, it only lasts about 2.5 months. That is barely a cushion. No wonder they are sweating over every tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
CNA really needs a proper analyst to talk about the real situation. She cannot even do simple math in her head. Linguist maybe, but mostly just talking out of her arse. Honestly, just take any primary school student in Singapore. They would make a better analysis of the situation based on facts and figures and actually assess what is really going on. These so-called analysts are just full of BS and that is the honest truth. They are not experts at all. Just re watch how she talks . I rest my case
@jacybongo2589
中国自豪地声称拥有12亿桶储备。听起来令人印象深刻，对吧？可惜如果按每天消耗1600万桶计算，这也只能维持大约2.5个月。这勉强算是个缓冲。难怪他们对每艘通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮都捏一把汗。亚洲新闻台（CNA）真的需要一个正儿八经的分析师来谈谈真实情况。她连心算简单的数学都不会。可能是个语言学家吧，但基本上只是在胡说八道。说实话，随便找一个新加坡的小学生，他们都能根据事实和数据对局势做出更好的分析，并切实评估到底发生了什么。这些所谓的分析师满嘴胡言，这就是大实话。他们根本不是专家。去重温一下她是怎么说话的吧。我言尽于此。
@jacybongo2589
@Loh-h9j I agree
@Loh-h9j 我同意。
@YunfengLu-r1r
@Loh@Loh-h9jhave you counted 5m barrels that China produces itself and plus another 60% import from other countries. Also have you counted in in full power how much more barrels that Russian can gush out through pipes as well as other middle Asian countries. Who is talking BS? Furthermore, the coal power plants are only running around 50%. China has unlimited coal!
@Loh@Loh-h9j 你算没算中国自己生产的500万桶，再加上从其他国家进口的另外60%？另外，你有没有算过如果火力全开，俄罗斯通过管道还能喷涌出多少桶，以及其他中亚国家？到底谁在胡说八道？此外，煤电厂目前仅以50%左右的负荷运行，中国拥有无限的煤炭！
@NotSoFat
@Loh-h9j 2.5 months yes. That's only if they are not importing anything and Iran's share of their imports is 11%. And your narrative sounds like China is importing everything through the Strait of Hormuz. So they will definitely last way more than 2.5 months.
@Loh-h9j 2.5个月没错。但那是在他们不进行任何进口、且伊朗占其进口份额为11%的极端假设下。而且你的叙事听起来好像中国所有的东西都是通过霍尔木兹海峡进口的。所以他们撑的时间肯定远不止2.5个月。
@Loh-h9j
@YunfengLu-r1r
Let’s get real about China’s oil situation. Sure, they produce about 5 million barrels a day, but they actually consume around 15 to 17 million. That means they have to import roughly 10 to 12 million barrels every single day just to keep everything running. And about 40 percent of that goes through the Strait of Hormuz, a single chokepoint that is super vulnerable. One hiccup there and things get messy fast.
让我们务实地看看中国的石油状况吧。当然，他们每天生产约500万桶，但实际消耗量在1500万至1700万桶左右。这意味着他们每天必须进口大约1000万至1200万桶，才能维持一切正常运转。这其中大约40%要经过霍尔木兹海峡，这是一个超级脆弱的单一咽喉要道。那里只要出一点差错，事情很快就会变得一团糟。
Now, yes, Russia and other Central Asian countries can send more oil, but pipelines have limits. You cannot just magically reroute millions of barrels overnight. Saying otherwise is ignoring reality.
@YunfengLu-r1r
现在，是的，俄罗斯和其他中亚国家可以运送更多石油，但管道有其运力限制。你不可能一夜之间奇迹般地重新规划数百万桶石油的路线。否认这一点就是无视现实。
And let’s talk coal. China has tons of it, but coal cannot replace oil for transportation, shipping, aviation, or heavy industry. Unlimited coal does not mean unlimited energy for everything. That is just basic energy economics.
我们再谈谈煤炭。中国有海量的煤炭，但煤炭无法在运输、航运、航空或重工业中取代石油。无限的煤炭并不意味着所有领域都有无限的能源。这只是基本的能源经济学。
Bottom line, China’s energy situation is not some non-issue. Heavy reliance on imports, vulnerable chokepoints, and the limits of alternative energy make it a real challenge. This is not BS, it is just the facts.
归根结底，中国的能源状况绝非无关紧要的小事。重度依赖进口、脆弱的咽喉要道以及替代能源的局限性使其成为一个真正的挑战。这绝非废话，这就是事实。
@Loh-h9j
Ok my fellow countrymen …
Don’t worry about Singapore just yet. Here’s the secret. Our energy game is tight. Lee Kuan Yew foresaw the risks of Middle East conflicts decades ago and Singapore planned accordingly. We diversify our oil imports across multiple countries. But it is not just about storage.
Jurong Island is the heart of our petroleum industry, where we refine crude into all kinds of fuels such as jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline. That means we are not just storing oil. We are turning it into usable energy efficiently.
好的，我的同胞们……
现在还不用担心新加坡。秘诀就在这里。我们的能源博弈非常严密。李光耀几十年前就预见到了中东冲突的风险，新加坡据此做了相应的规划。我们将石油进口分散到多个国家。但这不仅仅关乎储存。裕廊岛是我们石油工业的心脏，我们在那里将原油提炼成各种燃料，如航空燃料、柴油和汽油。这意味着我们不仅仅是在储存石油。我们正在高效地将其转化为可用的能源。
On top of that, Singapore has some of the world’s busiest and most advanced seaports, allowing us to manage imports, exports, and re-exports with unmatched flexibility. Even if something happens in the Strait of Hormuz, Singapore can handle it. Our strategic reserves, refining capability, and port infrastructure mean we can ride out disruptions for weeks without breaking a sweat. That is why bigger, less flexible consumers panic over every tanker delay or price spike, but Singapore keeps quietly running like clockwork. Preparation, diversification, and smart infrastructure is our secret.
Side note : Singapore just sent oil over to down under recently ..wink wink
最重要的是，新加坡拥有一些世界上最繁忙、最先进的海港，使我们能够以无与伦比的灵活性管理进口、出口和转口。即使霍尔木兹海峡发生什么事，新加坡也能应对。我们的战略储备、炼油能力和港口基础设施意味着我们可以在不费吹灰之力的情况下度过数周的中断期。这就是为什么更大、灵活性较差的消费者会因为油轮延误或价格飙升而恐慌，而新加坡却像钟表一样安静、精准地运转。做好准备、多样化和智能基础设施就是我们的秘密。
顺带一提：新加坡最近刚向澳大利亚输送了石油……懂的都懂。
@Loh-h9j
@NotSoFatyour name is hilarious, I like it ha ha buddy
You’re right that China could probably last longer than 2.5 months (if )alternative imports keep flowing. The Strait of Hormuz is a big deal for a lot of Asian economies. Japan, for example, is even more exposed, with 70 to 90 percent of its oil passing through Hormuz and most of it coming straight from the Middle East—they’re seriously so screwed . Singapore, by contrast, has diversified sources and built up strategic stockpiles, so we’re in a much safer spot when it comes to short-term disruptions. Long term? Lol, I can’t really say, but we’ll see what happens. There are a few possible scenarios, and we could treat this as a challenge to test our resilience .
@NotSoFat 你的名字太搞笑了，我喜欢，哈哈，老兄。
你是对的，（如果）替代进口渠道保持畅通，中国撑的时间可能会超过2.5个月。霍尔木兹海峡对许多亚洲经济体来说都至关重要。例如日本的风险敞口甚至更大，其70%到90%的石油都要经过霍尔木兹，且大部分直接来自中东——他们真的彻底完蛋了。相比之下，新加坡拥有多元化的来源并建立了战略储备，因此在应对短期供应中断时，我们处在一个安全得多的位置。长期来看呢？哈哈，我真的说不准，但让我们拭目以待吧。有几种可能的情景，我们可以把这当作测试我们韧性的一个挑战。
@lagrangewei
the ship that got turn back wasn't tanker. and you are missing the point, the point is they have trillion of barrel of oil stockpile. it is the same with Singapore, it why we don't have the type of price shock Thailand and Philippines is experiencing. furthermore Chine is the largest electricity producer in the world, 1/3 of all electricity is produce in China, they can just replace cars with EV. Singapore has LESS RESERVE than China does. furthermore, our energy depend on gas not oil, and that is going to be a problem sooner since it is harder to stock on gas than oil which is more dense and easier to store. you don't really know anything if you think we are better off than China.
被劝返的那艘船并不是油轮。而且你没抓到重点，重点是他们拥有万亿桶（注：此处誇大或笔误，应为10亿多桶）的石油储备。新加坡也是如此，这就是为什么我们没有经历泰国和菲律宾正在经历的那种物价冲击。此外，中国是世界上第一大发电国，全球1/3的电力是在中国生产的，他们大可以用电动汽车取代燃油车。新加坡的储备比中国少。而且，我们的能源依赖的是天然气而不是石油，而这迟早会成为一个问题，因为天然气比密度更大、更容易储存的石油更难储存。如果你认为我们的处境比中国好，那你真是一无所知。
@Loh-h9j
@lagrangewei
First, you are right that the ship that turned back wasn’t an oil tanker, but that detail doesn’t prove the point you are trying to make. The larger issue isn’t about one ship being turned back, it’s about global supply chains and market confidence. In energy markets, perception matters as much as stockpiles, and disruptions anywhere in major sea lanes like the Strait of Hormuz affect prices everywhere.
@lagrangewei
首先，你是对的，折返回去的那艘船不是油轮，但这一细节并不能证明你试图表达的观点。更大的问题不在于一艘船被劝返，而在于全球供应链和市场信心。在能源市场中，心理预期和库存一样重要，像霍尔木兹海峡这样的主要海上航道发生任何中断，都会影响到各地的价格。
Second, you mentioned China has trillions of barrels of oil stockpiled. While China does maintain strategic petroleum reserves, the idea that China has enough to completely shield itself from global energy shocks indefinitely is not accurate. Strategic reserves are meant to buffer short-term disruptions, not to replace ongoing imports or prevent price movements forever. Even if a country has reserves, futures markets, global demand, and shipping costs still drive price changes around the world.
其次，你提到中国囤积了数万亿桶石油。虽然中国确实维持着战略石油储备，但认为中国有足够的储备可以无限期地完全隔绝全球能源冲击的想法是不准确的。战略储备旨在缓冲短期中断，而不是为了永久取代持续的进口或永远阻止价格波动。即使一个国家拥有储备，期货市场、全球需求和航运成本仍然会推动全球的价格变动。
Third, Singapore doesn’t experience the same price shocks as Thailand or the Philippines not because of huge oil reserves, but because Singapore’s economy is highly diversified, very connected globally, and quick to adjust. Singapore’s role as a refining and trading hub means it isn’t just a consumer. It has supply chain flexibility, access to diversified supply sources, and rapid redistribution capabilities that help stabilize prices. Price shocks aren’t just about reserves, they are about market structure and agility.
第三，新加坡没有经历像泰国或菲律宾那样的价格冲击，不是因为巨额石油储备，而是因为新加坡经济高度多元化，与全球紧密相连，且调整迅速。新加坡作为炼油和贸易中心的角色意味着它不仅仅是一个消费者。它拥有供应链的灵活性、获取多元化供应来源的渠道以及快速重新分配的能力，这些都有助于稳定价格。价格冲击不仅关乎储备，更关乎市场结构和敏捷性。
Fourth, it’s true that China is the largest electricity producer in the world. Producing a third of the world’s electricity doesn’t automatically mean China can instantly replace all cars with electric vehicles. China’s electricity production includes a very large share of coal, which has its own environmental and supply issues. EV adoption also depends on infrastructure, grid capacity, battery supply chains, and consumer cost — things that take years or decades to fully build out.
第四，中国确实是世界上最大的发电国。但生产全球三分之一的电力并不自动意味着中国可以立即将所有汽车换成电动车。中国的发电量中包含很大一部分煤炭，煤炭自身也存在环境和供应问题。电动汽车的普及还取决于基础设施、电网容量、电池供应链和消费者成本——这些都是需要几年甚至几十年才能完全建成的。
Fifth, you are right that Singapore’s energy dependence is mostly on natural gas rather than oil, and gas is harder to stockpile. But Singapore’s strategy focuses on LNG import diversification, bilateral supply agreements, and strategic storage facilities. It isn’t a weakness in isolation. It’s a calculated choice based on Singapore’s size and trade-oriented economy, not a sign that Singapore is worse off than China.
第五，你是对的，新加坡的能源依赖主要在于天然气而不是石油，天然气确实更难储备。但新加坡的战略侧重于液化天然气（LNG）进口的多元化、双边供应协议和战略储存设施。孤立来看，这并不是劣势，而是基于新加坡的体量和贸易型经济做出的深思熟虑的选择，并不意味着新加坡的处境比中国更差。
Finally, comparing better off simply based on energy reserves misses the bigger picture. National well-being includes economic stability, governance, adaptability, quality of life, and ability to integrate global markets, not just how many barrels of oil you have in storage. Singapore may not have massive reserves, but it has sophisticated financial markets, strong institutions, and global connectivity that many larger countries do not.
最后，单纯基于能源储备来比较处境好坏，忽略了宏观大局。国家福祉包括经济稳定性、治理、适应能力、生活质量和融入全球市场的能力，而不仅仅是你仓库里存了多少桶石油。新加坡可能没有庞大的储备，但它拥有精密的金融市场、强大的体制和许多大国所不具备的全球连通性。
No, thinking Singapore is automatically worse off than China just because of reserves or electricity production is a narrow view. Energy resilience is a complex system of supply, demand, diversification, and adaptability, and on those measures, Singapore holds its own very well.
不，仅仅因为储备或发电量就认为新加坡的处境必然比中国差，是一种狭隘的看法。能源韧性是一个涉及供应、需求、多元化和适应能力的复杂系统，在这些衡量标准上，新加坡表现得非常出色。
This entire crisis is the consequence of Uncle Sam’s insatiable greed for Iranian oil. Every nation across the globe is feeling the impact of this war. The real question is how to endure and navigate its fallout. Countries everywhere are scrambling even as we speak.God help us all
这场危机完全是山姆大叔对伊朗石油贪得无厌的贪婪所带来的后果。全球每个国家都在承受这场战争的冲击。真正的问题是如何熬过去并渡过其余震。就在我们说话的同时，各地的国家都在争相应对。愿上帝保佑我们所有人。
@wangchung7599
@Loh-h9j That's what PRC is doing. It's still importing more than it uses. It's hoarding oil.
@Loh-h9j 这正是中国正在做的事。它进口的量仍然超过了其消耗的量。它正在囤积石油。
@jianyang6281
my friend, ever heard of "coal chemical"? even if China doesnt enhances its coal chemical industry, it still produce 50% energy of the amount oftotal import, plus we can still import from piplelines. China will be safe, dont worry about it.
我的朋友，听说过“煤化工”吗？即使中国不增强其煤化工产业，它依然能自产相当于总进口量50%的能源，加上我们仍然可以通过管道进口。中国会很安全的，不用为此担心。
@Loh-h9j
@jianyang6281yes friend I know a little chemistry , Look, coal could help China survive an oil shortage. There is tons of it, and they know how to turn it into fuel. But let’s be real. It is not cheap, it takes forever to set up, and the environmental hit is brutal with tons of CO₂ and massive water use. Sure, it might be a backup plan in a pinch, but calling it a real replacement for oil is just wishful thinking. And that is before you even get to the crazy food prices. People are going to lose jobs, and prices are going to skyrocket. Even if you fix the oil problem, life is still going to be rough for ordinary people. The same goes for Singapore too. No country is spared. The question is, who is going to be the worst off, and which country will survive this crisis and manage the best.
@jianyang6281 是的朋友，我懂一点化学。听着，煤炭确实可以帮助中国挺过石油短缺。煤炭数量庞大，而且他们知道如何将其转化为燃料。但让我们现实一点吧：这并不便宜，建立起来需要耗费大量时间，而且对环境的打击是残酷的，会产生大量的二氧化碳和海量的水资源消耗。当然，在紧要关头它可能是个备用方案，但把它当成石油的真正替代品纯属痴心妄想。这还没算上疯狂的粮食价格呢。人们会失业，物价会飞涨。即使你解决了石油问题，老百姓的日子依然会很难过。新加坡也是如此。没有哪个国家能幸免。问题在于，谁将是处境最惨的，而哪个国家又能挺过这场危机且应对得最好。
At the end of the day, I really hope the best for the Chinese people. I don’t wish anyone suffering. The same goes for Iranians, Americans, or anyone else on this planet. Citizens are just trying to live their lives. It is the governments that often make the mess.
归根结底，我真心祝愿中国人民一切都好。我不希望任何人遭受苦难。对伊朗人、美国人或这个星球上的任何其他人也是如此。普通公民只是想过好自己的生活，往往是政府搞砸了一切。
@Loh-h9j
@wangchung7599 Friend, you are so cute. It’s not wrong for China to hoard oil. They’re just protecting their national interests, like any country would. They didn’t try to steal from anyone—unlike Uncle Sam, lol—they bought their crude oil fair and square. If Singapore had more land and resources, we’d probably do the same. We just need to be fair and truthful in our thinking and judgment here ok ? They did no wrong .
@wangchung7599 朋友，你太可爱了。中国囤积石油并没有错。他们只是像任何国家一样在保护自己的国家利益。他们没有试图去偷任何人的东西——不像山姆大叔，哈哈——他们是公平公正地购买原油的。如果新加坡有更多的土地和资源，我们可能也会做同样的事。我们在思考和判断时只需要保持公平和真实，好吗？他们没有做错任何事。
@wangchung7599
@Loh-h9j You are right.
Lee Kuan Yew famously said that what Singapore can do, China can do better.
As Singapore is small, it is much easier to store 9 months of essential oil than it is for China.
However, the sheer size of China makes going beyond 3 months a massive logistical challenge.
@Loh-h9j 你是对的。李光耀曾有一句名言：凡是新加坡能做到的，中国都能做得更好。因为新加坡很小，所以储备9个月的基本用油比中国容易得多。然而，由于中国的庞大体量，让储备量超过3个月会是一个巨大的后勤挑战。
@TheHongbu
@Loh-h9j You have listed the data yourself, why don't you calculate the result but draw a conclusion directly instead? China needs to import 10 million barrels of oil per month, 40% of which must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which means the shortfall is 10 million * 40% = 4 million barrels. Please tell me, how many days is 1.2 billion barrels / 4 million barrels? Not to mention, if China increases imports from Russia and Central Asia by 2 million barrels per day, the gap will only be 4 million - 2 million = 2 million barrels. How many days is 1.2 billion / 2 million? Also, who told you that the capacity of the oil pipeline is limited? According to public information, the utilization rate of the China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline is only 20%, and that of the China-Russia oil pipeline is only 50%. If the utilization rates of both pipelines are increased to 100%, China can basically meet all its annual needs. By 2035, China will make EVs account for 80% of all vehicles (currently only 12%), and the demand for oil will also be greatly reduced by then. China's situation is much safer than Singapore's. You'd better worry more about your little Singapore.
@Loh-h9j 你自己都已经把数据列出来了， 为什么却不计算结果而直接得出结果呢？每月需进口1000万桶石油，其中40%必须经过霍尔木兹海峡，也就是说缺口为1000万*40%=400万桶。请告诉我，12亿桶/400万桶是多少天？更别提，中国如果每天从俄罗斯与中亚增加进口200万桶的话，那么缺口就只剩下400万-200万=200万桶了，12亿/200万是多少天？还有，谁告诉你输油管道运力有限？根据公开资料，中国与哈萨克斯坦输油管道的利用率仅为20%，中国与俄罗斯的输油管道利用率仅为50%，把这两条管道的利用率都提高到100%，则中国可以基本满足每年的全部需求。而到2035年时中国会使电动车占全部保有车辆的80%（现在仅12%），到时候对石油的需求也会大大降低。中国的处境比新加坡要安全得多，还是多担心担心你们坡县吧。
@JayTse-x7l
No sense to argue. Wait 6 months, China’s trade surplus will keep on trucking, whereas the rest of the world not dealing with China will suffer.
争论毫无意义。等上6个月，中国的贸易顺差仍将继续滚滚向前，而世界上其他不与中国打交道的国家将会遭受痛苦。
@Loh-h9j
@TheHongbu Look friend , your entire argument breaks down because your base numbers are wrong and your assumptions don’t reflect how energy systems actually work. China does not import 10 million barrels per month—it imports about 10 to 11 million barrels per day. If roughly 40% flows through the Strait of Hormuz, that’s a potential disruption of about 4 to 4.5 million barrels per day, not per month.
@TheHongbu 听着朋友，你的整个论点之所以站不住脚，是因为你的基础数据错了，而且你的假设没有反映出能源系统实际的运作方式。中国并不是每月进口1000万桶——它是每天进口大约1000万到1100万桶。如果大约40%流经霍尔木兹海峡，这意味着每天可能有400万到450万桶的供应中断风险，而不是每月。
Now let’s do the math correctly. If you take 1.2 billion barrels and divide by a 4 million barrel per day shortfall, you get about 300 days, but that number is misleading because those barrels include strategic petroleum reserves, which are not fully usable and are released gradually, not all at once. If the shortfall is reduced to 2 million barrels per day, then yes, mathematically that gives about 600 days, but again, that assumes full, unrestricted access to reserves, which is not how they are designed to be used. On your pipeline point, low utilization rates do not mean spare supply. Pipelines depend on upstream production capacity, existing supply contracts, and geopolitical constraints.
现在让我们正确地做一下数学计算：如果你拿12亿桶除以每天400万桶的缺口，你会得到大约300天。但这个数字是有误导性的，因为这些桶数包括了战略石油储备，这些储备并不能完全无限制使用，它们是逐步释放的，而不是一次性全部释放。如果缺口减少到每天200万桶，那么是的，从数学上讲可以维持大约600天。但同样，这假设的是对储备拥有完全、无限制的使用权，而储备的设计初衷并不是这样用的。关于你提到的管道问题，利用率低并不等同于有备用供应。管道的运力取决于上游的生产能力、现有的供应合同以及地缘政治的制约。
Russia and Central Asia cannot simply increase output overnight by 2 million barrels per day to fill those pipelines.Even today, Russia is already redirecting large volumes to China, and there are real limits to how much more it can send. More importantly, even if China offsets some physical supply loss, a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would remove a huge portion of global oil supply, driving global prices sharply higher, which China cannot avoid as the world’s largest importer. Your EV argument is also long-term and irrelevant to a short-term crisis. Even by 2035, sectors like aviation, petrochemicals, shipping, and heavy industry will still rely heavily on oil. And finally, comparing China to Singapore misses the point. China may have larger reserves, but it also has massively higher demand and a more complex, energy-intensive economy, making it highly exposed to shocks. So while your math looks clean, it’s based on flawed inputs and unrealistic assumptions. In reality, China is not nearly as insulated as you’re suggesting.
俄罗斯和中亚不可能一夜之间就把每天的产量提高200万桶来填满这些管道。哪怕在今天，俄罗斯已经在向中国转移大量资源，能再增加多少存在着现实的局限性。更重要的是，即使中国弥补了部分物理供应损失，霍尔木兹海峡的中断也会抽走全球石油供应的巨大份额，从而推高全球油价，作为世界第一大进口国的中国也无法避免这一点。你的电动车论点也是长期的，与短期的危机无关。哪怕到了2035年，航空、石化、航运和重工业等部门仍将高度依赖石油。最后，拿中国和新加坡相比偏离了重点。中国可能拥有更大的储备，但它同样拥有高得多的需求和更复杂、更密集耗能的经济，这使得它极易受到冲击。所以，虽然你的数学看起来很利落，但它是建立在错误的数据输入和不切实际的假设之上的。在现实中，中国绝没有你所暗示的那么刀枪不入。
no one wants to see the Chinese people suffer, or the Iranian or American people. My country, Singapore, won’t be spared either, okay? I wish your country all the best in managing this crisis, and I hope you guys get through it unscathed. I really do. The same goes for my country. I was just refuting what the analyst in the video was saying because I disagree.
没人希望看到中国人民受苦，或者伊朗人民、美国人民受苦。我的国家新加坡也无法幸免，好吗？祝愿贵国在应对这场危机中一切顺利，我希望你们能毫发无损地挺过去。我真心这么希望，对我的国家也是如此。我之前只是反驳视频里分析师说的话，因为我不同意。
