美知乎讨论：伊朗该如何能顶住美国的欺凌并取得胜利？
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Tomaž Vargazon Follow
Irrespective of what you think of the current war between USA, Iran and a bunch of others, Iran has a plan to win.
There is glaring similarity between Russian invasion of Ukraine and American attack on Iran. Both banked on the opponent not putting up significant resistance, that the opponent won’t be able to effectively resist and will collapse in the face of military pressure. Both turned out to be catastrophically wrong. However unlike Putin, Trump will face a reckoning in the form of elections.
无论你如何看待当前美国、伊朗及其他一些国家之间的冲突，伊朗都有一套制胜的策略。
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰与美国攻击伊朗之间存在惊人的相似之处。两者都寄希望于对手不会进行重大抵抗，认为对手无法有效抵抗，并会在军事压力下崩溃。事实证明，两者都错得离谱。然而，与普京不同，特朗普将面临选举形式的清算。
American midterms are coming up and Trump is widely unpopular. The war is making it even worse, just a couple of days ago Democrats flipped a Florida house seat that Mar-a-largo is in. Trump won the county by 19 points in 2024 and now it flipped blue. There’s a blue wave coming and Trump knows it.
美国中期选举即将到来，特朗普普遍不受欢迎。战争使情况变得更糟，就在几天前，民主党人翻转了佛罗里达州的一个众议院席位，该席位位于马阿拉歌庄园所在地区。特朗普在 2024 年以 19 个百分点的优势赢得了该县，但现在它变成了蓝色。一股蓝色浪潮即将来临，特朗普心知肚明。
More importantly, Iran knows it too. Right now Trump is reigning as a supreme dictator, being able to do anything he wants, because the mechanisms designed to reign people like him in are not being used. The Congress capitulated and surrendered to Trump. However in just a few months Americans will have the option to replace this Congress with a new one, all of the lower chamber and a good deal of the upper chamber. Right now it’s entirely possible they’ll take both and put a muzzle on DJ Trump.
更重要的是，伊朗也深知这一点。眼下特朗普正以最高独裁者的姿态统治着，可以为所欲为，因为那些原本设计来约束他这类人的机制并未启用。国会已经屈服并向特朗普投降。然而，再过几个月，美国人将有机会通过选举更换国会，众议院全部席位和参议院相当一部分席位都将面临改选。目前来看，他们完全有可能同时掌控两院，从而给特朗普套上"嘴套"。
Iran doesn’t need to force USA to terms. It just needs to survive until Trump obtains credible domestic opposition and have them take Trump down. There are more than enough reasons to impeach and remove Trump and plenty of urgent reasons to do so. Facing such opposition Iran is virtually certain to get a break of some sort and end up victorious.
That’s what you get for electing a complete moron to office.
伊朗无需迫使美国接受条件。它只需坚持到特朗普在国内面临可信的反对力量，并由这些力量将其拉下马。弹劾并罢免特朗普的理由不胜枚举，且迫在眉睫。面对这样的反对声浪，伊朗几乎肯定能获得某种喘息之机，并最终取得胜利。
这就是你们选一个彻头彻尾的白痴上台的后果。
Desmond Delce· Mar 26
Iran has too many cards it can play and Trump has almost nothing. America’s allies don’t want to help out with guarding the Straight of Hormuz because they know Trump won’t be thankful and will burn them sometime in the future.
This “Make America Great Again” experiment is failing and Trump knows it.
He has the Epstein files, rising gas prices, the Iran War, inflation, an unstable stock market, and unemployment to deal with.
Trump is like every other president: he is realizing he cannot have his cake and eat it too.
When more American soldiers die fighting Iran then possibly the public will understand how incompetent and a showman Trump is.
伊朗手中有太多可打的牌，而特朗普几乎无计可施。美国的盟友不愿协助守卫霍尔木兹海峡，因为他们知道特朗普不会心存感激，未来某个时候还会背弃他们。
"让美国再次伟大"的试验正在失败，特朗普心知肚明。
他手握爱泼斯坦文件，同时要应对油价上涨、伊朗战争、通货膨胀、股市动荡和失业问题。
特朗普与历任总统并无二致：他逐渐意识到鱼与熊掌不可兼得。
当更多美国士兵在伊朗战场上丧生时，公众或许才会认清特朗普是何等无能且善于作秀。
Ian Knight· Mar 27
Yeah, perhaps Khamenei should invite Trimpler to his (remote) office and publicly humiliate him, just as the orange moron has done to Zelenskyy.
是的，或许哈梅内伊应该邀请特朗普到他的（偏远）办公室，并公开羞辱他，就像那个橙色白痴对泽连斯基所做的那样。
Jan Veselý · Mar 26
There is no point to negotiate with Trump. He's deal breaker and he abuses negotiation as cover for military attacks.
And, also, he doesn't control Bibi and Israel at all.
与特朗普谈判毫无意义。他是个毁约者，滥用谈判作为军事攻击的掩护。
而且，他根本控制不了内塔尼亚胡和以色列。
Tim Rayburn · 34m
tRump is a narcissistic fool who can be played by anyone that plays to his ego. Bibi is playing him like a cheap fiddle. Putin must have sore fingers by playing tRump for so long.
特朗普是个自恋的傻瓜，任何迎合他自负的人都能操控他。内塔尼亚胡把他当廉价小提琴般玩弄。普京玩弄特朗普这么久，手指肯定都酸了。
Paul Edholm · Mar 26
It will serve to remember just how vengeful the Iranian regime was to Jimmy Carter for supporting the Shah. Although the Carter administration did ultimately negotiate the release of the hostages, the Iranians waited until the day of Reagan’s inauguration to release them, inflicting maximum personal humiliation to Carter. Forty-six years on, the Iranian regime consists of different actors, but I can foresee them doing the same to Donald Trump. Of course we Americans and much of the rest of the world are in line to suffer for it as well.
伊朗政权曾因吉米·卡特支持沙阿(伊朗国王的头衔)而展现出强烈的报复心，这段历史值得铭记。尽管卡特政府最终通过谈判促成了人质获释，但伊朗人特意等到里根就职典礼当天才放人，让卡特遭受了极大的个人羞辱。四十六年过去，伊朗政权虽已更迭不同掌权者，但我预见他们同样会对唐纳德·特朗普采取类似手段。当然，我们美国人乃至世界许多其他国家的人民，恐怕也要为此承受苦果。
Alistair Clark· Mar 26
Whilst accepting that Trump is a complete moron; this was obvious before he won his second term in the Oval Office. What most people seem not able to do, is join the dots as to why he won more votes than his opponent, 2.3 million more.
Surely the logical and obxtive conclusion is that his opponent (and their policies) was judged to be even more of a “moron” than Trump?
Too many otherwise sane people focus on Trump but refuse to see the other elephant in the room, ie. the total failure of the Democrat Party to put up attractive candidates and policies.
尽管承认特朗普是个彻头彻尾的白痴；这一点在他赢得第二个总统任期之前就已显而易见。大多数人似乎无法理解的是，他为何比对手多获得了 230 万张选票。
显然，逻辑和客观的结论是，他的对手（及其政策）被判定为比特朗普更“白痴”？
太多原本理智的人只关注特朗普，却拒绝看到房间里另一头大象，即民主党未能提出有吸引力的候选人和政策。
Clayton Stone· Mar 26
Yes, it’s possible to dislike both options & still find one option more acceptable. We have a two party system - well, you know what I mean. One will win. It’s not as if an independent has a real opportunity. The US is currently voting against candidates - not for them
是的，有可能两个选项都不喜欢，但仍然觉得其中一个选项更可接受。我们实行的是两党制——嗯，你懂我的意思。总会有一方获胜。独立候选人并没有真正的机会。美国目前是在投票反对候选人，而不是支持他们。
Kevin Tessier· Mar 26
The vast majority of the widespread complaints about Joe Biden's presidency revolved around the economy, and almost the entirety of the economic problems during his term came from the Covid-19 pandemic, not bad policy. The USA had some of the lowest economic damage and inflation from the pandemic when compared to other developed countries.
对乔·拜登总统任期的广泛抱怨绝大多数围绕经济问题，而他在任期间几乎所有的经济问题都源于新冠疫情，而非政策失误。与其他发达国家相比，美国在疫情期间遭受的经济损失和通货膨胀程度相对较低。
The problem for the Democrats is not terrible policy, it's pathetic messaging with pathetic reach. Right wing commentators have been king on the internet since early YouTube, so like 2006. It's just that the internet actually reaches more than computer nerds these days, and the Democrats are nowhere near catching up, so the right wing narrative spreads a lot farther a lot faster.
民主党面临的问题并非政策糟糕，而是其传播方式可悲且影响力微弱。自 2006 年 YouTube 兴起之初，右翼评论员就已在网络世界称王。如今互联网早已突破极客圈层触及大众，民主党却远远未能跟上节奏，导致右翼叙事以更快速度传播至更广范围。
As much as we would like to live in a world where all voters are perfectly informed, the reality is almost as close to the opposite as one could imagine. The vast majority of voters are largely uninformed or misinformed. Perception matters more than reality, and the Democrats have major issues with managing the perception the public has of them.
尽管我们渴望生活在一个所有选民都能充分知情的理想世界，现实却近乎与之背道而驰。绝大多数选民要么信息匮乏，要么被误导。公众认知往往比事实更重要，而民主党在管理公众认知方面存在严重缺陷。
Artie Rudra · Mar 27
Not a big fan of the US hegemony, but I wish that the US would once conduct a campaign an clean as Gulf War I.. No mission creep, no decapitation bullsh, no regime change.. Just a pure and simple application of overwhelming power in pursuit of clear and validated obxtives.. Even the campaign map from Wikipedia is a work of art..
Say what you want about Bush Sr, he was the last of the competent and aristocratic politicians from Repubs.. since then they have descended into third world populist bullcrap..
虽然不太喜欢美国的霸权主义，但我希望美国能再次发动一场像第一次海湾战争那样干净利落的行动。没有任务蔓延，没有斩首行动的胡扯，没有政权更迭。纯粹是运用压倒性力量追求明确且经过验证的目标。就连维基百科上的战役地图都堪称艺术品。
不论你对老布什有何评价，他都是共和党最后一位兼具才干与贵族风范的政治家。自他之后，共和党便沉沦于第三世界民粹主义的泥沼之中。
Yi Li Follow
Iran does not need to do anything at all, nor does it need to defeat the United States. The only thing it has to do is prevent Trump from achieving a huge victory that can impress Congress and the public, then hold on for 60 or 90 days.
Trump will definitely abandon the war.
The reason is simple:
This war launched by the United States against Iran has a very huge hidden danger: it lacks legitimacy.
伊朗根本无需采取任何行动，也无需击败美国。它唯一要做的就是阻止特朗普取得能打动国会和民众的巨大胜利，然后坚持 60 到 90 天即可。
特朗普一定会放弃这场战争。
原因很简单：美国对伊朗发动的这场战争，存在一个非常巨大的隐患：缺乏合法性。
This war has neither authorization from the UN Security Council nor authorization from the U.S. Congress. It was launched entirely by Trump alone.
US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Saturday evening, stating that "The United States has blown Iran off the map."
Why the lack of legitimacy?
Although since the 9/11 attacks, the power of the U.S. President has expanded unprecedentedly, allowing the President to frequently bypass Congress and conduct military operations at will, there are ultimately limits to this power.
这场战争既没有联合国安理会的授权，也没有美国国会的授权，完全是特朗普一个人发动的。
美国总统特朗普周六晚间在真实社交上发文称，"美国已经将伊朗从地图上抹去。"
为何缺乏合法性？
尽管自 911 袭击以来，美国总统的权力空前扩大，使得总统能够频繁绕过国会，随意进行军事行动，但这种权力终究是有限度的。
According to U.S. law, the United States can launch foreign military operations only under three circumstances
Formal declaration of war by Congress
Special authorization from Congress + (PMF)
National emergency +
根据美国法律，美国只能在三种情况下发动对外军事行动:
1.国会正式宣战
2.国会特别授权
3.国家紧急状态
The last formal declaration of war by the U.S. Congress was against the Axis powers during World War II. Since the end of World War II, the U.S. Congress has never formally declared war on another country.
Large-scale military operations the United States has engaged in after the war, such as the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, the War in Afghanistan, and the Iraq War, all followed the process of special congressional authorization (PMF). Although several of them had the suspicion of acting first and reporting later (the President deployed troops first and then sought congressional authorization), they at least obtained the PMF before the outbreak of hostilities, which can be regarded as legally recognized wars under U.S. law.
美国国会最后一次正式宣战是在二战期间对轴心国宣战。二战结束后，美国国会从未再对其他国家正式宣战。
美国战后参与的大规模军事行动，如越南战争、海湾战争、阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争，走的都是国会特别授权的流程。虽然其中几次有先斩后奏的嫌疑（总统先出兵再寻求国会授权），但至少都在战事爆发前获得了国会特别授权，可以算作美国法律认可的战争。
The Korean War was rather special: the U.S. military intervention in Korea did not receive congressional authorization but was carried out under the authorization of the United Nations Security Council (hence the term "United Nations Forces"), so it barely had legal justification.
If there is neither a congressional declaration of war nor a PMF, the U.S. President can only launch military operations under a "state of emergency"—the President declares that national security is threatened, invokes a state of emergency, and deploys troops directly by bypassing Congress.
So, what exact process did Trump follow to launch the war against Iran this time?
The answer is: none whatsoever.
朝鲜战争比较特殊：美军介入朝鲜战事并未获得国会授权，而是在联合国安理会授权下进行的（所以叫"联合国军"），因此勉强算有法理依据。
如果没有国会宣战，也没有国会特别授权，美国总统就只能以"紧急状态"为由发动军事行动——总统宣布国家安全受到威胁，进入紧急状态，绕开国会直接出兵。
那么，特朗普这次对伊朗发动战争，究竟走了什么程序呢？
答案是：什么程序都没走。
Trump's decision to wage war on Iran was a complete and outright violation of U.S. domestic law, even by America's own legal standards.
There was no declaration of war by Congress, no PMF authorization, not even a declaration of a national emergency. Before launching the war, Trump not only failed to seek congressional approval—he didn't even inform Congress. Most members of the U.S. Congress, like the rest of us, only learned that the U.S. had gone to war with Iran after the conflict had already begun.
Under the established procedures, even in an emergency, the president is required to submit a War Powers Report to Congress within 48 hours of initiating hostilities. Trump did submit such a report—but it was one day late, missing the legal deadline.
特朗普对伊朗发动战争的决定，完全是对美国国内法的公然践踏，即便按照美国自己的法律标准也是如此。
国会没有宣战，没有授权动用武力，甚至没有宣布国家进入紧急状态。在发动战争之前，特朗普不仅没有寻求国会批准，甚至没有通知国会。
美国国会的大多数成员和我们一样，直到冲突已经开始，才知道美国已经与伊朗开战。
根据既定程序，即使在紧急情况下，总统也必须在发动敌对行动后 48 小时内向国会提交战争权力报告。特朗普确实提交了这样一份报告，但晚了一天，错过了法定期限。
In other words, Trump's military strike against Iran had neither UN authorization nor congressional approval. He did not give prior notice to Congress, nor did he submit the required War Powers Report within the legally mandated 48-hour window.
Trump acted directly in his capacity as "Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces," bypassing Congress entirely to order the U.S. military into action. Not a single legally recognized war initiation process in the United States was followed from start to finish. And the purported justification—"the threat posed by Iran to the United States"—failed to gain acceptance from the majority of the American public and members of Congress.
This means that the war Trump launched against Iran was not only completely illegal in procedural terms but also lacked sufficient domestic public support. In this matter, Trump acted unilaterally and arbitrarily, single-handedly dragging the entire United States onto the warpath.
换句话说，特朗普对伊朗的军事打击既没有联合国授权，也没有国会批准。他没有事先通知国会，也没有在法律规定的 48 小时窗口期内提交所需的战争权力报告。
特朗普直接以"武装部队总司令"的身份，绕开国会，下令美军采取行动。美国所有法律承认的战争启动程序，从头到尾一个都没有走。而所谓的"伊朗对美国构成的威胁"这一理由，也没有得到美国大多数民众和国会议员的认可。
这意味着特朗普对伊朗发动的战争，不仅在程序上完全非法，而且在国内也缺乏足够的民意支持。在这件事上，特朗普独断专行，一手将整个美国拖上了战争之路。
Bear in mind that when Putin launched the war against Ukraine, he at least secured unanimous support from the State Duma.
So who exactly is the democratic country, and who is the authoritarian one?
What is the cost?
别忘了，普京发动对乌克兰的战争时，至少还获得了国家杜马的一致支持。
那么，到底谁是民主国家，谁又是专制国家呢？
代价是什么？
Doing so will incur two costs:
First, Trump now has no way out. He must win, and it has to be a clean, decisive victory, to silence Congress and avoid accusations of launching an illegal war.
Let alone being defeated—if the war turns into a stalemate or a war of attrition, if the victory is not decisive enough, or if heavy casualties or losses are incurred in the process, Trump will face an avalanche of criticism from Congress.
这样做会带来两个代价：
第一，特朗普现在没有退路。他必须赢，而且必须是干净利落、决定性的胜利，才能堵住国会的嘴，避免被指责发动非法战争。
更不用说战败了——如果战争陷入僵局或消耗战，如果胜利不够决定性，或者过程中出现重大伤亡或损失，特朗普将面临国会排山倒海的批评。
This is also why the Russian military can keep fighting despite suffering huge casualties, while the U.S. military is extremely afraid of casualties. It is not that the U.S. military truly cannot withstand casualties, but that this war lacks complete legitimacy and public support domestically. Under such circumstances, the U.S.'s ability to bear costs becomes extremely low; even casualties in the dozens or hundreds could trigger a public outcry.
This is not the Vietnam War, nor even the Gulf War. In both of those wars, the U.S. at least obtained congressional authorization, which allowed U.S. presidents to dare to face the risk of inflicting heavy casualties on U.S. troops.
This time, however, the U.S. has no ability to take risks at all. If a decisive victory cannot be achieved at an extremely low cost, Trump is finished.
这也是为什么俄军能在遭受巨大伤亡的情况下继续作战，而美军却极其害怕伤亡。并非美军真的承受不起伤亡，而是这场战争在国内缺乏完全的合法性和民意支持。在这种情况下，美国的成本承受能力变得极低；即便是几十或几百人的伤亡，也可能引发公众的强烈抗议。
这不是越南战争，甚至也不是海湾战争。在那两场战争中，美国至少获得了国会授权，这使得美国总统敢于面对让美军承受重大伤亡的风险。
然而这一次，美国完全没有能力冒险。如果不能以极低的代价取得决定性胜利，特朗普就完了。
Second, the resources Trump can commit to war are severely constrained.
Without going through the legal process for war, Trump cannot launch a military-industrial mobilization or conduct long-term war preparations. At the outset of hostilities, he could only carry out airstrikes. Two weeks into the war, he began hastily assembling forces from around the globe—grabbing a Marine detachment here, an airborne unit there, pulling troops from all directions to the Middle East in a piecemeal fashion.
其次，特朗普能够投入战争的资源受到严重限制。
特朗普未经战争法律程序，无法启动军工动员或进行长期备战。战争伊始，他只能实施空袭。开战两周后，他才开始匆忙从全球各地拼凑兵力——这里抽调一支海军陆战队分队，那里调遣一支空降部队，以零敲碎打的方式将各方兵力调往中东。
To date, the U.S. has only managed to deploy 50,000 ground troops, which will arrive in dribs and drabs by late April. These forces consist solely of Marines, paratroopers, and light infantry brigades, with not a single mechanized unit to be found. It is unclear what purpose these troops are meant to serve.
In contrast, during the two previous Iraq wars, the U.S. deployed six aircraft carriers and hundreds of thousands of troops, with ground forces composed entirely of armored and mechanized divisions. The U.S. force committed to the attack on Iran this time is pitifully inadequate.
迄今为止，美国仅能部署 5 万地面部队，且要到四月底才能零零散散地抵达。这些部队清一色由海军陆战队、空降兵和轻步兵旅组成，连一支机械化部队的影子都见不着。这些部队究竟意欲何为，实在令人费解。
相比之下，在之前的两场伊拉克战争中，美国动用了六艘航空母舰和数十万军队，地面部队完全由装甲和机械化师组成。而这次美国用于攻击伊朗的兵力，实在是少得可怜。
Trump’s entirely illegal initiation of hostilities, extreme internal disunity, and severe lack of war preparation are precisely Iran’s hope for victory—this means it is Trump, not Iran, who cannot afford a protracted conflict.
The only reason the U.S. Congress has not broken with Trump is that it is waiting to see if he can actually win with the forces he has committed.
If Trump fails to secure victory on his own, Congress will never allow him to endlessly pour more resources and manpower into a war that was never approved by Congress and lacks public support.
In fact, less than a month into the war, Trump’s approval rating has dropped by five percentage points, and Republican lawmakers have lost their safe districts in multiple parts of the country.
特朗普完全非法的开战、极度的内部不统一和严重的战备不足，恰恰是伊朗获胜的希望——这意味着是特朗普而非伊朗无法承受一场持久战。
美国国会至今未与特朗普决裂的唯一原因，是他们想看看他能否仅凭已投入的兵力就赢得战争。
如果特朗普无法凭一己之力取胜，国会绝不会允许他将更多资源和人力无休止地投入这场未经国会批准且缺乏民意支持的战争。
事实上，开战不到一个月，特朗普的支持率已下降五个百分点，共和党议员在全国多个地区失去了原本稳固的选区。
This is Iran’s window of opportunity—Trump’s conditions for victory are impossibly stringent. He must win quickly, decisively, and spectacularly to claim success; even a less-than-flawless victory counts as a defeat.
He cannot afford any significant losses, dares not risk heavy U.S. military casualties, and cannot prolong the war for too long, lest his political career be completely destroyed.
It's still uncertain who will win and who will lose.
Many people believe that with such strong national power, the United States can easily fight a war of attrition against Iran. The question is: why would the United States want to fight a war of attrition with Iran?
这是伊朗的机遇之窗——特朗普的胜利条件苛刻到几乎不可能实现。他必须迅速、果断且辉煌地取胜才能宣称成功；即便是稍有瑕疵的胜利也算作失败。
他承受不起任何重大损失，不敢冒美军伤亡惨重的风险，也不能让战争拖延太久，以免自己的政治生涯彻底毁于一旦。
鹿死谁手，尚未可知。
很多人认为，美国国力如此强大，打一场对伊朗的消耗战绰绰有余。问题是：美国为什么要和伊朗打消耗战？
It is Trump, not the United States, who has started the war with Iran. The United States can afford to sustain it, but Trump cannot.
Although Trump deliberately blurred the war initiation process, theoretically exempting himself from the 90-day restriction (after all, this war itself is completely illegal), this does not change the fact that he can hardly sustain a long-term war without public support and congressional backing.
The only way for Trump to gain domestic support to continue the war is to achieve an overwhelmingly decisive victory, one that would show Congress and the public the hope of winning.
和伊朗开战的是特朗普，不是美国。美国耗得起，特朗普耗不起。
尽管特朗普刻意模糊了战争启动程序，理论上使自己免于 90 天限制（毕竟这场战争本身完全非法），但这改变不了他若缺乏民意支持与国会背书，几乎无法维持长期战争的事实。
特朗普要想获得国内支持继续战争，唯一的办法就是取得压倒性的决定性胜利，让国会和民众看到胜利的希望。
This is precisely why there has been constant hype about "seizing islands" recently. If he fails to secure a major victory and cannot open the Strait of Hormuz, and if the war drags on for 60 or 90 days with Congress still seeing no prospect of victory, Congress will simply refuse to allocate further funds for the war—and Trump will be completely finished.
Time is on Iran's side. They do not need to defeat the United States at all. The only thing they need to do is prevent Trump from scoring a huge victory that would sway Congress and the public in the short term, then hold on—for 60 or 90 days. By then, Trump will naturally be unable to continue the war.
这正是为什么最近不断炒作"夺岛"的原因。如果他无法取得重大胜利，无法打开霍尔木兹海峡，如果战争拖延 60 天或 90 天，国会仍然看不到胜利的前景，国会将直接拒绝为战争进一步拨款——而特朗普将彻底完蛋。
时间站在伊朗一边。他们根本不需要击败美国。他们唯一需要做的就是阻止特朗普在短期内取得巨大胜利，从而影响国会和公众舆论，然后坚持下去——坚持 60 天或 90 天。到那时，特朗普自然无法继续战争。
If Iran can inflict any massive casualties or losses on U.S. forces at any point during this process, the war will end immediately.
This war was launched from the very beginning by Trump acting unilaterally, ignoring the opinions of the American people and other politicians, and in complete violation of U.S. law. This predestines that U.S. military operations will be under enormous political pressure and countless potential constraints, unable to exert their full strength and unable to sustain a long war. This is Iran's only hope of victory.
如果伊朗能在此过程中的任何节点给美军造成大规模伤亡或损失，战争将立即结束。
这场战争从一开始就是特朗普单方面发动的，无视美国人民和其他政治人物的意见，完全违反美国法律。这注定了美军的行动将承受巨大的政治压力和无数潜在制约，无法发挥全力，也无法维持长期作战。这是伊朗唯一的胜算所在。
Coantify
"Law? Trump?
We're already into his second term and you still don't know Trump? He's not the kind of 'good boy' who plays by the rules. He's looked down on honest, plodding folks his whole life. Back in school, young trump used to bully nerds and teachers.
No one understands the essence of American’s true color better than Trump: A hypocritical skyscraper name “Rule and Order” founded by violence and war.
法律？特朗普？
我们都已经进入他的第二任期了，你还不了解特朗普吗？他可不是那种循规蹈矩的"乖孩子"。他这辈子都瞧不起老实巴交、埋头苦干的人。早在学生时代，年轻的特朗普就经常欺负书呆子和老师。
没有人比特朗普更懂美国本质的真面目：一座建立在暴力和战争之上的虚伪摩天大楼，名为"规则与秩序"。
Canadian Prime Minister Carney punctured that lie at the Davos summit—but only because Canada was threatened with annexation by Trump. Before that, Canadians had no problem helping the U.S. bully other countries under the banner of the 'the rule-based order' That's the norm for most people: as long as the trouble doesn't backfire on them, they ignore the violence happening. The invasion of Venezuela came even earlier than the war on Iran, yet it faced no domestic opposition in the U.S. Why? Because it was a swift, successful military invasion—gas prices stayed stable, only few people died, no draft required. As long as Americans' lives aren't affected, most couldn't care less whether their president is helping Israel commit GENOCIDE on the other side of the world, or whether those actions are legal.
加拿大总理卡尼在达沃斯峰会上戳穿了这一谎言——但这只是因为加拿大面临被特朗普吞并的威胁。在此之前，加拿大人并不介意打着"基于规则的秩序"旗号帮助美国欺凌他国。这就是大多数人的常态：只要麻烦不反噬自身，他们就对正在发生的暴行视而不见。入侵委内瑞拉甚至早于对伊朗的战争，却未在美国国内引发任何反对声浪。为何？因为这是一场迅速成功的军事入侵——油价保持稳定，伤亡人数极少，无需征兵。只要美国人的生活不受影响，大多数人才不在乎他们的总统是否在帮助以色列实施种族灭绝，也不在乎这些行动是否合法。
Trump will only be punished when his actions fail. Until then, he will keep doubling down on the war on Iran. As long as he wins, none of it matters."
只有当特朗普的行动失败时，他才会受到惩罚。在此之前，他将继续在对伊朗的战争中加倍下注。只要他能获胜，这一切都无关紧要。
Tony Finn
I was reading a book on the American Civil War recently. The author stated that to win, the Confederates just had not to lose! A paradox meaning it dodb’t have to attack the North, didn’t have to launch attacking battles, just sit there.
Iran is the same. To win, it just has to sit there until the USA goes home. As long as it can take the poundings, it will win.
最近我在读一本关于美国内战的书。作者指出，南方邦联要取胜，只需做到不败即可！这看似矛盾，意味着他们无需主动攻击北方，不必发起进攻战役，只需按兵不动。
伊朗也是如此。要取胜，它只需坚守阵地，直到美国打道回府。只要它能承受住打击，就能赢得胜利。
Kurt Pedersen
The just have to be in control of the Hormuz strait and prevent Golf states to freely export oil to the world market.
That will be enough to make Trump loose the war.
他们只需要控制霍尔木兹海峡，并阻止海湾国家自由地将石油出口到世界市场。
那将足以让特朗普输掉这场战争。
司馬 刑
In fact, Trump had another option: to send troops into Israel to arrest Netanyahu, pin all the blame on him, accusing him of misleading the United States with disinformation and deliberately instigating war for profit. This would allow Trump to gain some of Iran's trust and potentially achieve a ceasefire, while also garnering support from a growing number of people worldwide who oppose Netanyahu.
事实上，特朗普还有一个选择：派军队进入以色列逮捕内塔尼亚胡，将所有责任都推给他，指责他使用虚假信息误导美国，并为了利益故意煽动战争。这将使特朗普获得一些伊朗的信任，并有可能实现停火，同时也能获得越来越多反对内塔尼亚胡的世界人民的支持。
BeowulfCam Follow
Asymmetric warfare. Iran doesn’t have to defeat the US outright, Iran just has to last long enough to make it too expensive for the US to continue. The US government has to keep it’s voters happy, Iran does not have that problem.
In addition, although Trump may claim to be a Christian he does not really believe in Christianity. The Iranians are true believers and more than willing to martyr themselves for their faith. Someone like Trump who views the whole world through the lens of a series of transactions cannot fathom a person willing to die for their faith alone.
不对称战争。伊朗不必彻底击败美国，只需坚持足够长的时间，让美国因代价过高而无法继续。美国政府必须让选民满意，而伊朗则没有这个问题。
此外，尽管特朗普可能自称是基督徒，但他并不真正信仰基督教。伊朗人是真正的信徒，并且非常愿意为信仰殉道。像特朗普这样通过一系列交易来看待整个世界的人，无法理解有人仅仅为了信仰而愿意牺牲生命。
Iran has also decentralised it’s command structure. The US thought that a decapitation strike would disable Iran. That actually tells us more about the way the US works than anything. Iran was prepared for this and gave regional commanders the ability to strike back. How do you clear the Strait of Hormuz when militia are launching drones from pickup trucks and vanishing into the hills afterwards? It is a nightmare scenario.
There was a reason previous US administrations never attacked Iran. With the current idiots in charge we are getting a demonstration. It will take boots on the ground to win. It will take years. Remember when Trump accused Biden of wanting to start a war in Iran?
Maybe Hegseth will get his American Crusade against the Muslims.
伊朗还分散了其指挥结构。美国曾认为斩首打击就能让伊朗瘫痪。这实际上更多地揭示了美国的行事方式。伊朗对此早有准备，并赋予地区指挥官反击的能力。当民兵从皮卡车上发射无人机，随后消失在山丘中时，你如何清理霍尔木兹海峡？这简直是噩梦般的场景。
之前的美国政府从未攻击伊朗是有原因的。现在由这些蠢货掌权，我们正在目睹一场演示。要取得胜利，需要地面部队的介入。这将耗费数年时间。还记得特朗普曾指责拜登想在伊朗发动战争吗？
也许赫格塞斯会发动他的美国十字军东征，对抗穆斯林。
Guillaume Pierron Follow
Iran is not winning the war by any means.
Militarily, it can’t really defend itself against Israel or the US.
Politically, Iran is quite isolated. The closest allies are Russia and China. And neither of them are willing to assist Iran.
However, is Iran losing the war? Yes and no.
伊朗无论如何都没有赢得这场战争。
军事上，伊朗确实无法有效抵御以色列或美国的攻击。
在政治上，伊朗相当孤立。最接近的盟友是俄罗斯和中国。而且它们都不愿意援助伊朗。
然而，伊朗正在输掉战争吗？是也不是。
Iran is definitely going to end up weakened for quite a while after that war. They need to rebuild Iran, finance their proxy (Hamas, Hezbollah, etc). And most of their allies are gone, absent or severely weakened.
And yet, if Iran decides to weather the storm, the US may very well blx first.
It is very easy for Iran to disrupt trading in the Ormuz strait.
And it is going to be very expensive to securise that strait for the US and possibly its allies (if they decide to come, which is not a sure thing).
伊朗在那场战争后肯定会相当一段时间内变得虚弱。他们需要重建伊朗，资助他们的代理人（哈马斯、真主党等）。而且他们的大多数盟友都不见了，缺席或严重削弱。
然而，如果伊朗决定挺过这场风暴，美国很可能会先退缩。
伊朗很容易就能扰乱霍尔木兹海峡的贸易。
而美国及其可能的盟友（如果他们决定介入，这并非必然）要确保该海峡的安全，代价将非常高昂。
Not to mention that the war is costing an arm and a leg to the US every day. It’s not the Iraqi war of 2003, there is no one else to share the costs of that war.
And the US has even more debts than in 2003.
Can the US afford to continue the war much longer?
That’s the question and the only way for Iran to win.
If Iran’s government last longer than the US willingness to continue the war, then Iran wins. And for now, it seems that it’s going ot be the case.
更不用说这场战争每天都在让美国付出巨大代价。这并非 2003 年的伊拉克战争，没有其他国家来分担战争成本。
而且，美国的债务比 2003 年更多。
美国还能负担得起继续打多久的战争？这就是问题所在，也是伊朗获胜的唯一途径。
如果伊朗政府的持久力超过美国继续战争的意愿，那么伊朗就赢了。目前看来，情况似乎正朝这个方向发展。
ShockwaveRider Follow
Iran made the mistake of becoming bullies themselves. The US has installed 81 dictators worldwide, hoping to promote more bullies on the playground because war is good for business-as-usual, that is, selling weapons. Believe me, all these insane billionaires, military juntas, and petty dictators all deserve each other. So far, Iran has proven to be almost all bark and no bite, only capable of blowing up large buildings and oil tankers that can’t get away from them. Now, it appears the Republican Guard may have taken over the government, while military intelligence is a complete oxymoron.
The only winners in war are the survivors, while violence is the last resort of the incompetent.
伊朗犯了一个错误，那就是自己也变成了恃强凌弱者。美国在全球扶持了 81 个独裁者，希望在国际舞台上培养更多霸凌者，因为战争对其常规生意有利，也就是武器销售。相信我，所有这些疯狂的亿万富翁、军事独裁者和小独裁者都是咎由自取。迄今为止，伊朗几乎只敢虚张声势，没有实际行动，只能炸毁那些无法逃脱的大型建筑和油轮。现在，可能伊朗革命卫队已经接管了其政府，而军事情报则完全是个矛盾的说法。
战争唯一的赢家是幸存者，而暴力是无能者的最后手段。
Grant EatonFollow
IRAN can stop funding Terrorism.
IRAN can stop using other Countries as Proxies.
IRAN can stop killing it so own innocent Civilians.
IRAN can completely stop its goal of having Nuclear Arms
伊朗可以停止资助恐怖主义。
伊朗可以停止利用其他国家作为代理人。
伊朗可以停止杀害本国无辜平民。
伊朗可以完全停止其拥有核武器的目标。
IRAN can support peace and unity and problem solving , Instead of using threats .
IRAN can focus more on taking care of its own economy and humanitarian needs for its own people .
IRAN can change how the World looks at IRAN
伊朗可以支持和平与团结以及解决问题，而不是使用威胁。
伊朗可以更多地关注其自身经济并满足本国人民的人道主义需求。
伊朗可以改变世界看待伊朗的方式。
Irrespective of what you think of the current war between USA, Iran and a bunch of others, Iran has a plan to win.
There is glaring similarity between Russian invasion of Ukraine and American attack on Iran. Both banked on the opponent not putting up significant resistance, that the opponent won’t be able to effectively resist and will collapse in the face of military pressure. Both turned out to be catastrophically wrong. However unlike Putin, Trump will face a reckoning in the form of elections.
无论你如何看待当前美国、伊朗及其他一些国家之间的冲突，伊朗都有一套制胜的策略。
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰与美国攻击伊朗之间存在惊人的相似之处。两者都寄希望于对手不会进行重大抵抗，认为对手无法有效抵抗，并会在军事压力下崩溃。事实证明，两者都错得离谱。然而，与普京不同，特朗普将面临选举形式的清算。
American midterms are coming up and Trump is widely unpopular. The war is making it even worse, just a couple of days ago Democrats flipped a Florida house seat that Mar-a-largo is in. Trump won the county by 19 points in 2024 and now it flipped blue. There’s a blue wave coming and Trump knows it.
美国中期选举即将到来，特朗普普遍不受欢迎。战争使情况变得更糟，就在几天前，民主党人翻转了佛罗里达州的一个众议院席位，该席位位于马阿拉歌庄园所在地区。特朗普在 2024 年以 19 个百分点的优势赢得了该县，但现在它变成了蓝色。一股蓝色浪潮即将来临，特朗普心知肚明。
More importantly, Iran knows it too. Right now Trump is reigning as a supreme dictator, being able to do anything he wants, because the mechanisms designed to reign people like him in are not being used. The Congress capitulated and surrendered to Trump. However in just a few months Americans will have the option to replace this Congress with a new one, all of the lower chamber and a good deal of the upper chamber. Right now it’s entirely possible they’ll take both and put a muzzle on DJ Trump.
更重要的是，伊朗也深知这一点。眼下特朗普正以最高独裁者的姿态统治着，可以为所欲为，因为那些原本设计来约束他这类人的机制并未启用。国会已经屈服并向特朗普投降。然而，再过几个月，美国人将有机会通过选举更换国会，众议院全部席位和参议院相当一部分席位都将面临改选。目前来看，他们完全有可能同时掌控两院，从而给特朗普套上"嘴套"。
Iran doesn’t need to force USA to terms. It just needs to survive until Trump obtains credible domestic opposition and have them take Trump down. There are more than enough reasons to impeach and remove Trump and plenty of urgent reasons to do so. Facing such opposition Iran is virtually certain to get a break of some sort and end up victorious.
That’s what you get for electing a complete moron to office.
伊朗无需迫使美国接受条件。它只需坚持到特朗普在国内面临可信的反对力量，并由这些力量将其拉下马。弹劾并罢免特朗普的理由不胜枚举，且迫在眉睫。面对这样的反对声浪，伊朗几乎肯定能获得某种喘息之机，并最终取得胜利。
这就是你们选一个彻头彻尾的白痴上台的后果。
Desmond Delce· Mar 26
Iran has too many cards it can play and Trump has almost nothing. America’s allies don’t want to help out with guarding the Straight of Hormuz because they know Trump won’t be thankful and will burn them sometime in the future.
This “Make America Great Again” experiment is failing and Trump knows it.
He has the Epstein files, rising gas prices, the Iran War, inflation, an unstable stock market, and unemployment to deal with.
Trump is like every other president: he is realizing he cannot have his cake and eat it too.
When more American soldiers die fighting Iran then possibly the public will understand how incompetent and a showman Trump is.
伊朗手中有太多可打的牌，而特朗普几乎无计可施。美国的盟友不愿协助守卫霍尔木兹海峡，因为他们知道特朗普不会心存感激，未来某个时候还会背弃他们。
"让美国再次伟大"的试验正在失败，特朗普心知肚明。
他手握爱泼斯坦文件，同时要应对油价上涨、伊朗战争、通货膨胀、股市动荡和失业问题。
特朗普与历任总统并无二致：他逐渐意识到鱼与熊掌不可兼得。
当更多美国士兵在伊朗战场上丧生时，公众或许才会认清特朗普是何等无能且善于作秀。
Ian Knight· Mar 27
Yeah, perhaps Khamenei should invite Trimpler to his (remote) office and publicly humiliate him, just as the orange moron has done to Zelenskyy.
是的，或许哈梅内伊应该邀请特朗普到他的（偏远）办公室，并公开羞辱他，就像那个橙色白痴对泽连斯基所做的那样。
Jan Veselý · Mar 26
There is no point to negotiate with Trump. He's deal breaker and he abuses negotiation as cover for military attacks.
And, also, he doesn't control Bibi and Israel at all.
与特朗普谈判毫无意义。他是个毁约者，滥用谈判作为军事攻击的掩护。
而且，他根本控制不了内塔尼亚胡和以色列。
Tim Rayburn · 34m
tRump is a narcissistic fool who can be played by anyone that plays to his ego. Bibi is playing him like a cheap fiddle. Putin must have sore fingers by playing tRump for so long.
特朗普是个自恋的傻瓜，任何迎合他自负的人都能操控他。内塔尼亚胡把他当廉价小提琴般玩弄。普京玩弄特朗普这么久，手指肯定都酸了。
Paul Edholm · Mar 26
It will serve to remember just how vengeful the Iranian regime was to Jimmy Carter for supporting the Shah. Although the Carter administration did ultimately negotiate the release of the hostages, the Iranians waited until the day of Reagan’s inauguration to release them, inflicting maximum personal humiliation to Carter. Forty-six years on, the Iranian regime consists of different actors, but I can foresee them doing the same to Donald Trump. Of course we Americans and much of the rest of the world are in line to suffer for it as well.
伊朗政权曾因吉米·卡特支持沙阿(伊朗国王的头衔)而展现出强烈的报复心，这段历史值得铭记。尽管卡特政府最终通过谈判促成了人质获释，但伊朗人特意等到里根就职典礼当天才放人，让卡特遭受了极大的个人羞辱。四十六年过去，伊朗政权虽已更迭不同掌权者，但我预见他们同样会对唐纳德·特朗普采取类似手段。当然，我们美国人乃至世界许多其他国家的人民，恐怕也要为此承受苦果。
Alistair Clark· Mar 26
Whilst accepting that Trump is a complete moron; this was obvious before he won his second term in the Oval Office. What most people seem not able to do, is join the dots as to why he won more votes than his opponent, 2.3 million more.
Surely the logical and obxtive conclusion is that his opponent (and their policies) was judged to be even more of a “moron” than Trump?
Too many otherwise sane people focus on Trump but refuse to see the other elephant in the room, ie. the total failure of the Democrat Party to put up attractive candidates and policies.
尽管承认特朗普是个彻头彻尾的白痴；这一点在他赢得第二个总统任期之前就已显而易见。大多数人似乎无法理解的是，他为何比对手多获得了 230 万张选票。
显然，逻辑和客观的结论是，他的对手（及其政策）被判定为比特朗普更“白痴”？
太多原本理智的人只关注特朗普，却拒绝看到房间里另一头大象，即民主党未能提出有吸引力的候选人和政策。
Clayton Stone· Mar 26
Yes, it’s possible to dislike both options & still find one option more acceptable. We have a two party system - well, you know what I mean. One will win. It’s not as if an independent has a real opportunity. The US is currently voting against candidates - not for them
是的，有可能两个选项都不喜欢，但仍然觉得其中一个选项更可接受。我们实行的是两党制——嗯，你懂我的意思。总会有一方获胜。独立候选人并没有真正的机会。美国目前是在投票反对候选人，而不是支持他们。
Kevin Tessier· Mar 26
The vast majority of the widespread complaints about Joe Biden's presidency revolved around the economy, and almost the entirety of the economic problems during his term came from the Covid-19 pandemic, not bad policy. The USA had some of the lowest economic damage and inflation from the pandemic when compared to other developed countries.
对乔·拜登总统任期的广泛抱怨绝大多数围绕经济问题，而他在任期间几乎所有的经济问题都源于新冠疫情，而非政策失误。与其他发达国家相比，美国在疫情期间遭受的经济损失和通货膨胀程度相对较低。
The problem for the Democrats is not terrible policy, it's pathetic messaging with pathetic reach. Right wing commentators have been king on the internet since early YouTube, so like 2006. It's just that the internet actually reaches more than computer nerds these days, and the Democrats are nowhere near catching up, so the right wing narrative spreads a lot farther a lot faster.
民主党面临的问题并非政策糟糕，而是其传播方式可悲且影响力微弱。自 2006 年 YouTube 兴起之初，右翼评论员就已在网络世界称王。如今互联网早已突破极客圈层触及大众，民主党却远远未能跟上节奏，导致右翼叙事以更快速度传播至更广范围。
As much as we would like to live in a world where all voters are perfectly informed, the reality is almost as close to the opposite as one could imagine. The vast majority of voters are largely uninformed or misinformed. Perception matters more than reality, and the Democrats have major issues with managing the perception the public has of them.
尽管我们渴望生活在一个所有选民都能充分知情的理想世界，现实却近乎与之背道而驰。绝大多数选民要么信息匮乏，要么被误导。公众认知往往比事实更重要，而民主党在管理公众认知方面存在严重缺陷。
Artie Rudra · Mar 27
Not a big fan of the US hegemony, but I wish that the US would once conduct a campaign an clean as Gulf War I.. No mission creep, no decapitation bullsh, no regime change.. Just a pure and simple application of overwhelming power in pursuit of clear and validated obxtives.. Even the campaign map from Wikipedia is a work of art..
Say what you want about Bush Sr, he was the last of the competent and aristocratic politicians from Repubs.. since then they have descended into third world populist bullcrap..
虽然不太喜欢美国的霸权主义，但我希望美国能再次发动一场像第一次海湾战争那样干净利落的行动。没有任务蔓延，没有斩首行动的胡扯，没有政权更迭。纯粹是运用压倒性力量追求明确且经过验证的目标。就连维基百科上的战役地图都堪称艺术品。
不论你对老布什有何评价，他都是共和党最后一位兼具才干与贵族风范的政治家。自他之后，共和党便沉沦于第三世界民粹主义的泥沼之中。
Yi Li Follow
Iran does not need to do anything at all, nor does it need to defeat the United States. The only thing it has to do is prevent Trump from achieving a huge victory that can impress Congress and the public, then hold on for 60 or 90 days.
Trump will definitely abandon the war.
The reason is simple:
This war launched by the United States against Iran has a very huge hidden danger: it lacks legitimacy.
伊朗根本无需采取任何行动，也无需击败美国。它唯一要做的就是阻止特朗普取得能打动国会和民众的巨大胜利，然后坚持 60 到 90 天即可。
特朗普一定会放弃这场战争。
原因很简单：美国对伊朗发动的这场战争，存在一个非常巨大的隐患：缺乏合法性。
This war has neither authorization from the UN Security Council nor authorization from the U.S. Congress. It was launched entirely by Trump alone.
US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Saturday evening, stating that "The United States has blown Iran off the map."
Why the lack of legitimacy?
Although since the 9/11 attacks, the power of the U.S. President has expanded unprecedentedly, allowing the President to frequently bypass Congress and conduct military operations at will, there are ultimately limits to this power.
这场战争既没有联合国安理会的授权，也没有美国国会的授权，完全是特朗普一个人发动的。
美国总统特朗普周六晚间在真实社交上发文称，"美国已经将伊朗从地图上抹去。"
为何缺乏合法性？
尽管自 911 袭击以来，美国总统的权力空前扩大，使得总统能够频繁绕过国会，随意进行军事行动，但这种权力终究是有限度的。
According to U.S. law, the United States can launch foreign military operations only under three circumstances
Formal declaration of war by Congress
Special authorization from Congress + (PMF)
National emergency +
根据美国法律，美国只能在三种情况下发动对外军事行动:
1.国会正式宣战
2.国会特别授权
3.国家紧急状态
The last formal declaration of war by the U.S. Congress was against the Axis powers during World War II. Since the end of World War II, the U.S. Congress has never formally declared war on another country.
Large-scale military operations the United States has engaged in after the war, such as the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, the War in Afghanistan, and the Iraq War, all followed the process of special congressional authorization (PMF). Although several of them had the suspicion of acting first and reporting later (the President deployed troops first and then sought congressional authorization), they at least obtained the PMF before the outbreak of hostilities, which can be regarded as legally recognized wars under U.S. law.
美国国会最后一次正式宣战是在二战期间对轴心国宣战。二战结束后，美国国会从未再对其他国家正式宣战。
美国战后参与的大规模军事行动，如越南战争、海湾战争、阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争，走的都是国会特别授权的流程。虽然其中几次有先斩后奏的嫌疑（总统先出兵再寻求国会授权），但至少都在战事爆发前获得了国会特别授权，可以算作美国法律认可的战争。
The Korean War was rather special: the U.S. military intervention in Korea did not receive congressional authorization but was carried out under the authorization of the United Nations Security Council (hence the term "United Nations Forces"), so it barely had legal justification.
If there is neither a congressional declaration of war nor a PMF, the U.S. President can only launch military operations under a "state of emergency"—the President declares that national security is threatened, invokes a state of emergency, and deploys troops directly by bypassing Congress.
So, what exact process did Trump follow to launch the war against Iran this time?
The answer is: none whatsoever.
朝鲜战争比较特殊：美军介入朝鲜战事并未获得国会授权，而是在联合国安理会授权下进行的（所以叫"联合国军"），因此勉强算有法理依据。
如果没有国会宣战，也没有国会特别授权，美国总统就只能以"紧急状态"为由发动军事行动——总统宣布国家安全受到威胁，进入紧急状态，绕开国会直接出兵。
那么，特朗普这次对伊朗发动战争，究竟走了什么程序呢？
答案是：什么程序都没走。
Trump's decision to wage war on Iran was a complete and outright violation of U.S. domestic law, even by America's own legal standards.
There was no declaration of war by Congress, no PMF authorization, not even a declaration of a national emergency. Before launching the war, Trump not only failed to seek congressional approval—he didn't even inform Congress. Most members of the U.S. Congress, like the rest of us, only learned that the U.S. had gone to war with Iran after the conflict had already begun.
Under the established procedures, even in an emergency, the president is required to submit a War Powers Report to Congress within 48 hours of initiating hostilities. Trump did submit such a report—but it was one day late, missing the legal deadline.
特朗普对伊朗发动战争的决定，完全是对美国国内法的公然践踏，即便按照美国自己的法律标准也是如此。
国会没有宣战，没有授权动用武力，甚至没有宣布国家进入紧急状态。在发动战争之前，特朗普不仅没有寻求国会批准，甚至没有通知国会。
美国国会的大多数成员和我们一样，直到冲突已经开始，才知道美国已经与伊朗开战。
根据既定程序，即使在紧急情况下，总统也必须在发动敌对行动后 48 小时内向国会提交战争权力报告。特朗普确实提交了这样一份报告，但晚了一天，错过了法定期限。
In other words, Trump's military strike against Iran had neither UN authorization nor congressional approval. He did not give prior notice to Congress, nor did he submit the required War Powers Report within the legally mandated 48-hour window.
Trump acted directly in his capacity as "Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces," bypassing Congress entirely to order the U.S. military into action. Not a single legally recognized war initiation process in the United States was followed from start to finish. And the purported justification—"the threat posed by Iran to the United States"—failed to gain acceptance from the majority of the American public and members of Congress.
This means that the war Trump launched against Iran was not only completely illegal in procedural terms but also lacked sufficient domestic public support. In this matter, Trump acted unilaterally and arbitrarily, single-handedly dragging the entire United States onto the warpath.
换句话说，特朗普对伊朗的军事打击既没有联合国授权，也没有国会批准。他没有事先通知国会，也没有在法律规定的 48 小时窗口期内提交所需的战争权力报告。
特朗普直接以"武装部队总司令"的身份，绕开国会，下令美军采取行动。美国所有法律承认的战争启动程序，从头到尾一个都没有走。而所谓的"伊朗对美国构成的威胁"这一理由，也没有得到美国大多数民众和国会议员的认可。
这意味着特朗普对伊朗发动的战争，不仅在程序上完全非法，而且在国内也缺乏足够的民意支持。在这件事上，特朗普独断专行，一手将整个美国拖上了战争之路。
Bear in mind that when Putin launched the war against Ukraine, he at least secured unanimous support from the State Duma.
So who exactly is the democratic country, and who is the authoritarian one?
What is the cost?
别忘了，普京发动对乌克兰的战争时，至少还获得了国家杜马的一致支持。
那么，到底谁是民主国家，谁又是专制国家呢？
代价是什么？
Doing so will incur two costs:
First, Trump now has no way out. He must win, and it has to be a clean, decisive victory, to silence Congress and avoid accusations of launching an illegal war.
Let alone being defeated—if the war turns into a stalemate or a war of attrition, if the victory is not decisive enough, or if heavy casualties or losses are incurred in the process, Trump will face an avalanche of criticism from Congress.
这样做会带来两个代价：
第一，特朗普现在没有退路。他必须赢，而且必须是干净利落、决定性的胜利，才能堵住国会的嘴，避免被指责发动非法战争。
更不用说战败了——如果战争陷入僵局或消耗战，如果胜利不够决定性，或者过程中出现重大伤亡或损失，特朗普将面临国会排山倒海的批评。
This is also why the Russian military can keep fighting despite suffering huge casualties, while the U.S. military is extremely afraid of casualties. It is not that the U.S. military truly cannot withstand casualties, but that this war lacks complete legitimacy and public support domestically. Under such circumstances, the U.S.'s ability to bear costs becomes extremely low; even casualties in the dozens or hundreds could trigger a public outcry.
This is not the Vietnam War, nor even the Gulf War. In both of those wars, the U.S. at least obtained congressional authorization, which allowed U.S. presidents to dare to face the risk of inflicting heavy casualties on U.S. troops.
This time, however, the U.S. has no ability to take risks at all. If a decisive victory cannot be achieved at an extremely low cost, Trump is finished.
这也是为什么俄军能在遭受巨大伤亡的情况下继续作战，而美军却极其害怕伤亡。并非美军真的承受不起伤亡，而是这场战争在国内缺乏完全的合法性和民意支持。在这种情况下，美国的成本承受能力变得极低；即便是几十或几百人的伤亡，也可能引发公众的强烈抗议。
这不是越南战争，甚至也不是海湾战争。在那两场战争中，美国至少获得了国会授权，这使得美国总统敢于面对让美军承受重大伤亡的风险。
然而这一次，美国完全没有能力冒险。如果不能以极低的代价取得决定性胜利，特朗普就完了。
Second, the resources Trump can commit to war are severely constrained.
Without going through the legal process for war, Trump cannot launch a military-industrial mobilization or conduct long-term war preparations. At the outset of hostilities, he could only carry out airstrikes. Two weeks into the war, he began hastily assembling forces from around the globe—grabbing a Marine detachment here, an airborne unit there, pulling troops from all directions to the Middle East in a piecemeal fashion.
其次，特朗普能够投入战争的资源受到严重限制。
特朗普未经战争法律程序，无法启动军工动员或进行长期备战。战争伊始，他只能实施空袭。开战两周后，他才开始匆忙从全球各地拼凑兵力——这里抽调一支海军陆战队分队，那里调遣一支空降部队，以零敲碎打的方式将各方兵力调往中东。
To date, the U.S. has only managed to deploy 50,000 ground troops, which will arrive in dribs and drabs by late April. These forces consist solely of Marines, paratroopers, and light infantry brigades, with not a single mechanized unit to be found. It is unclear what purpose these troops are meant to serve.
In contrast, during the two previous Iraq wars, the U.S. deployed six aircraft carriers and hundreds of thousands of troops, with ground forces composed entirely of armored and mechanized divisions. The U.S. force committed to the attack on Iran this time is pitifully inadequate.
迄今为止，美国仅能部署 5 万地面部队，且要到四月底才能零零散散地抵达。这些部队清一色由海军陆战队、空降兵和轻步兵旅组成，连一支机械化部队的影子都见不着。这些部队究竟意欲何为，实在令人费解。
相比之下，在之前的两场伊拉克战争中，美国动用了六艘航空母舰和数十万军队，地面部队完全由装甲和机械化师组成。而这次美国用于攻击伊朗的兵力，实在是少得可怜。
Trump’s entirely illegal initiation of hostilities, extreme internal disunity, and severe lack of war preparation are precisely Iran’s hope for victory—this means it is Trump, not Iran, who cannot afford a protracted conflict.
The only reason the U.S. Congress has not broken with Trump is that it is waiting to see if he can actually win with the forces he has committed.
If Trump fails to secure victory on his own, Congress will never allow him to endlessly pour more resources and manpower into a war that was never approved by Congress and lacks public support.
In fact, less than a month into the war, Trump’s approval rating has dropped by five percentage points, and Republican lawmakers have lost their safe districts in multiple parts of the country.
特朗普完全非法的开战、极度的内部不统一和严重的战备不足，恰恰是伊朗获胜的希望——这意味着是特朗普而非伊朗无法承受一场持久战。
美国国会至今未与特朗普决裂的唯一原因，是他们想看看他能否仅凭已投入的兵力就赢得战争。
如果特朗普无法凭一己之力取胜，国会绝不会允许他将更多资源和人力无休止地投入这场未经国会批准且缺乏民意支持的战争。
事实上，开战不到一个月，特朗普的支持率已下降五个百分点，共和党议员在全国多个地区失去了原本稳固的选区。
This is Iran’s window of opportunity—Trump’s conditions for victory are impossibly stringent. He must win quickly, decisively, and spectacularly to claim success; even a less-than-flawless victory counts as a defeat.
He cannot afford any significant losses, dares not risk heavy U.S. military casualties, and cannot prolong the war for too long, lest his political career be completely destroyed.
It's still uncertain who will win and who will lose.
Many people believe that with such strong national power, the United States can easily fight a war of attrition against Iran. The question is: why would the United States want to fight a war of attrition with Iran?
这是伊朗的机遇之窗——特朗普的胜利条件苛刻到几乎不可能实现。他必须迅速、果断且辉煌地取胜才能宣称成功；即便是稍有瑕疵的胜利也算作失败。
他承受不起任何重大损失，不敢冒美军伤亡惨重的风险，也不能让战争拖延太久，以免自己的政治生涯彻底毁于一旦。
鹿死谁手，尚未可知。
很多人认为，美国国力如此强大，打一场对伊朗的消耗战绰绰有余。问题是：美国为什么要和伊朗打消耗战？
It is Trump, not the United States, who has started the war with Iran. The United States can afford to sustain it, but Trump cannot.
Although Trump deliberately blurred the war initiation process, theoretically exempting himself from the 90-day restriction (after all, this war itself is completely illegal), this does not change the fact that he can hardly sustain a long-term war without public support and congressional backing.
The only way for Trump to gain domestic support to continue the war is to achieve an overwhelmingly decisive victory, one that would show Congress and the public the hope of winning.
和伊朗开战的是特朗普，不是美国。美国耗得起，特朗普耗不起。
尽管特朗普刻意模糊了战争启动程序，理论上使自己免于 90 天限制（毕竟这场战争本身完全非法），但这改变不了他若缺乏民意支持与国会背书，几乎无法维持长期战争的事实。
特朗普要想获得国内支持继续战争，唯一的办法就是取得压倒性的决定性胜利，让国会和民众看到胜利的希望。
This is precisely why there has been constant hype about "seizing islands" recently. If he fails to secure a major victory and cannot open the Strait of Hormuz, and if the war drags on for 60 or 90 days with Congress still seeing no prospect of victory, Congress will simply refuse to allocate further funds for the war—and Trump will be completely finished.
Time is on Iran's side. They do not need to defeat the United States at all. The only thing they need to do is prevent Trump from scoring a huge victory that would sway Congress and the public in the short term, then hold on—for 60 or 90 days. By then, Trump will naturally be unable to continue the war.
这正是为什么最近不断炒作"夺岛"的原因。如果他无法取得重大胜利，无法打开霍尔木兹海峡，如果战争拖延 60 天或 90 天，国会仍然看不到胜利的前景，国会将直接拒绝为战争进一步拨款——而特朗普将彻底完蛋。
时间站在伊朗一边。他们根本不需要击败美国。他们唯一需要做的就是阻止特朗普在短期内取得巨大胜利，从而影响国会和公众舆论，然后坚持下去——坚持 60 天或 90 天。到那时，特朗普自然无法继续战争。
If Iran can inflict any massive casualties or losses on U.S. forces at any point during this process, the war will end immediately.
This war was launched from the very beginning by Trump acting unilaterally, ignoring the opinions of the American people and other politicians, and in complete violation of U.S. law. This predestines that U.S. military operations will be under enormous political pressure and countless potential constraints, unable to exert their full strength and unable to sustain a long war. This is Iran's only hope of victory.
如果伊朗能在此过程中的任何节点给美军造成大规模伤亡或损失，战争将立即结束。
这场战争从一开始就是特朗普单方面发动的，无视美国人民和其他政治人物的意见，完全违反美国法律。这注定了美军的行动将承受巨大的政治压力和无数潜在制约，无法发挥全力，也无法维持长期作战。这是伊朗唯一的胜算所在。
Coantify
"Law? Trump?
We're already into his second term and you still don't know Trump? He's not the kind of 'good boy' who plays by the rules. He's looked down on honest, plodding folks his whole life. Back in school, young trump used to bully nerds and teachers.
No one understands the essence of American’s true color better than Trump: A hypocritical skyscraper name “Rule and Order” founded by violence and war.
法律？特朗普？
我们都已经进入他的第二任期了，你还不了解特朗普吗？他可不是那种循规蹈矩的"乖孩子"。他这辈子都瞧不起老实巴交、埋头苦干的人。早在学生时代，年轻的特朗普就经常欺负书呆子和老师。
没有人比特朗普更懂美国本质的真面目：一座建立在暴力和战争之上的虚伪摩天大楼，名为"规则与秩序"。
Canadian Prime Minister Carney punctured that lie at the Davos summit—but only because Canada was threatened with annexation by Trump. Before that, Canadians had no problem helping the U.S. bully other countries under the banner of the 'the rule-based order' That's the norm for most people: as long as the trouble doesn't backfire on them, they ignore the violence happening. The invasion of Venezuela came even earlier than the war on Iran, yet it faced no domestic opposition in the U.S. Why? Because it was a swift, successful military invasion—gas prices stayed stable, only few people died, no draft required. As long as Americans' lives aren't affected, most couldn't care less whether their president is helping Israel commit GENOCIDE on the other side of the world, or whether those actions are legal.
加拿大总理卡尼在达沃斯峰会上戳穿了这一谎言——但这只是因为加拿大面临被特朗普吞并的威胁。在此之前，加拿大人并不介意打着"基于规则的秩序"旗号帮助美国欺凌他国。这就是大多数人的常态：只要麻烦不反噬自身，他们就对正在发生的暴行视而不见。入侵委内瑞拉甚至早于对伊朗的战争，却未在美国国内引发任何反对声浪。为何？因为这是一场迅速成功的军事入侵——油价保持稳定，伤亡人数极少，无需征兵。只要美国人的生活不受影响，大多数人才不在乎他们的总统是否在帮助以色列实施种族灭绝，也不在乎这些行动是否合法。
Trump will only be punished when his actions fail. Until then, he will keep doubling down on the war on Iran. As long as he wins, none of it matters."
只有当特朗普的行动失败时，他才会受到惩罚。在此之前，他将继续在对伊朗的战争中加倍下注。只要他能获胜，这一切都无关紧要。
Tony Finn
I was reading a book on the American Civil War recently. The author stated that to win, the Confederates just had not to lose! A paradox meaning it dodb’t have to attack the North, didn’t have to launch attacking battles, just sit there.
Iran is the same. To win, it just has to sit there until the USA goes home. As long as it can take the poundings, it will win.
最近我在读一本关于美国内战的书。作者指出，南方邦联要取胜，只需做到不败即可！这看似矛盾，意味着他们无需主动攻击北方，不必发起进攻战役，只需按兵不动。
伊朗也是如此。要取胜，它只需坚守阵地，直到美国打道回府。只要它能承受住打击，就能赢得胜利。
Kurt Pedersen
The just have to be in control of the Hormuz strait and prevent Golf states to freely export oil to the world market.
That will be enough to make Trump loose the war.
他们只需要控制霍尔木兹海峡，并阻止海湾国家自由地将石油出口到世界市场。
那将足以让特朗普输掉这场战争。
司馬 刑
In fact, Trump had another option: to send troops into Israel to arrest Netanyahu, pin all the blame on him, accusing him of misleading the United States with disinformation and deliberately instigating war for profit. This would allow Trump to gain some of Iran's trust and potentially achieve a ceasefire, while also garnering support from a growing number of people worldwide who oppose Netanyahu.
事实上，特朗普还有一个选择：派军队进入以色列逮捕内塔尼亚胡，将所有责任都推给他，指责他使用虚假信息误导美国，并为了利益故意煽动战争。这将使特朗普获得一些伊朗的信任，并有可能实现停火，同时也能获得越来越多反对内塔尼亚胡的世界人民的支持。
BeowulfCam Follow
Asymmetric warfare. Iran doesn’t have to defeat the US outright, Iran just has to last long enough to make it too expensive for the US to continue. The US government has to keep it’s voters happy, Iran does not have that problem.
In addition, although Trump may claim to be a Christian he does not really believe in Christianity. The Iranians are true believers and more than willing to martyr themselves for their faith. Someone like Trump who views the whole world through the lens of a series of transactions cannot fathom a person willing to die for their faith alone.
不对称战争。伊朗不必彻底击败美国，只需坚持足够长的时间，让美国因代价过高而无法继续。美国政府必须让选民满意，而伊朗则没有这个问题。
此外，尽管特朗普可能自称是基督徒，但他并不真正信仰基督教。伊朗人是真正的信徒，并且非常愿意为信仰殉道。像特朗普这样通过一系列交易来看待整个世界的人，无法理解有人仅仅为了信仰而愿意牺牲生命。
Iran has also decentralised it’s command structure. The US thought that a decapitation strike would disable Iran. That actually tells us more about the way the US works than anything. Iran was prepared for this and gave regional commanders the ability to strike back. How do you clear the Strait of Hormuz when militia are launching drones from pickup trucks and vanishing into the hills afterwards? It is a nightmare scenario.
There was a reason previous US administrations never attacked Iran. With the current idiots in charge we are getting a demonstration. It will take boots on the ground to win. It will take years. Remember when Trump accused Biden of wanting to start a war in Iran?
Maybe Hegseth will get his American Crusade against the Muslims.
伊朗还分散了其指挥结构。美国曾认为斩首打击就能让伊朗瘫痪。这实际上更多地揭示了美国的行事方式。伊朗对此早有准备，并赋予地区指挥官反击的能力。当民兵从皮卡车上发射无人机，随后消失在山丘中时，你如何清理霍尔木兹海峡？这简直是噩梦般的场景。
之前的美国政府从未攻击伊朗是有原因的。现在由这些蠢货掌权，我们正在目睹一场演示。要取得胜利，需要地面部队的介入。这将耗费数年时间。还记得特朗普曾指责拜登想在伊朗发动战争吗？
也许赫格塞斯会发动他的美国十字军东征，对抗穆斯林。
Guillaume Pierron Follow
Iran is not winning the war by any means.
Militarily, it can’t really defend itself against Israel or the US.
Politically, Iran is quite isolated. The closest allies are Russia and China. And neither of them are willing to assist Iran.
However, is Iran losing the war? Yes and no.
伊朗无论如何都没有赢得这场战争。
军事上，伊朗确实无法有效抵御以色列或美国的攻击。
在政治上，伊朗相当孤立。最接近的盟友是俄罗斯和中国。而且它们都不愿意援助伊朗。
然而，伊朗正在输掉战争吗？是也不是。
Iran is definitely going to end up weakened for quite a while after that war. They need to rebuild Iran, finance their proxy (Hamas, Hezbollah, etc). And most of their allies are gone, absent or severely weakened.
And yet, if Iran decides to weather the storm, the US may very well blx first.
It is very easy for Iran to disrupt trading in the Ormuz strait.
And it is going to be very expensive to securise that strait for the US and possibly its allies (if they decide to come, which is not a sure thing).
伊朗在那场战争后肯定会相当一段时间内变得虚弱。他们需要重建伊朗，资助他们的代理人（哈马斯、真主党等）。而且他们的大多数盟友都不见了，缺席或严重削弱。
然而，如果伊朗决定挺过这场风暴，美国很可能会先退缩。
伊朗很容易就能扰乱霍尔木兹海峡的贸易。
而美国及其可能的盟友（如果他们决定介入，这并非必然）要确保该海峡的安全，代价将非常高昂。
Not to mention that the war is costing an arm and a leg to the US every day. It’s not the Iraqi war of 2003, there is no one else to share the costs of that war.
And the US has even more debts than in 2003.
Can the US afford to continue the war much longer?
That’s the question and the only way for Iran to win.
If Iran’s government last longer than the US willingness to continue the war, then Iran wins. And for now, it seems that it’s going ot be the case.
更不用说这场战争每天都在让美国付出巨大代价。这并非 2003 年的伊拉克战争，没有其他国家来分担战争成本。
而且，美国的债务比 2003 年更多。
美国还能负担得起继续打多久的战争？这就是问题所在，也是伊朗获胜的唯一途径。
如果伊朗政府的持久力超过美国继续战争的意愿，那么伊朗就赢了。目前看来，情况似乎正朝这个方向发展。
ShockwaveRider Follow
Iran made the mistake of becoming bullies themselves. The US has installed 81 dictators worldwide, hoping to promote more bullies on the playground because war is good for business-as-usual, that is, selling weapons. Believe me, all these insane billionaires, military juntas, and petty dictators all deserve each other. So far, Iran has proven to be almost all bark and no bite, only capable of blowing up large buildings and oil tankers that can’t get away from them. Now, it appears the Republican Guard may have taken over the government, while military intelligence is a complete oxymoron.
The only winners in war are the survivors, while violence is the last resort of the incompetent.
伊朗犯了一个错误，那就是自己也变成了恃强凌弱者。美国在全球扶持了 81 个独裁者，希望在国际舞台上培养更多霸凌者，因为战争对其常规生意有利，也就是武器销售。相信我，所有这些疯狂的亿万富翁、军事独裁者和小独裁者都是咎由自取。迄今为止，伊朗几乎只敢虚张声势，没有实际行动，只能炸毁那些无法逃脱的大型建筑和油轮。现在，可能伊朗革命卫队已经接管了其政府，而军事情报则完全是个矛盾的说法。
战争唯一的赢家是幸存者，而暴力是无能者的最后手段。
Grant EatonFollow
IRAN can stop funding Terrorism.
IRAN can stop using other Countries as Proxies.
IRAN can stop killing it so own innocent Civilians.
IRAN can completely stop its goal of having Nuclear Arms
伊朗可以停止资助恐怖主义。
伊朗可以停止利用其他国家作为代理人。
伊朗可以停止杀害本国无辜平民。
伊朗可以完全停止其拥有核武器的目标。
IRAN can support peace and unity and problem solving , Instead of using threats .
IRAN can focus more on taking care of its own economy and humanitarian needs for its own people .
IRAN can change how the World looks at IRAN
伊朗可以支持和平与团结以及解决问题，而不是使用威胁。
伊朗可以更多地关注其自身经济并满足本国人民的人道主义需求。
伊朗可以改变世界看待伊朗的方式。
