中国刚刚完成了28纳米光刻机的研发，并且正在努力在没有ASML或台湾的情况下自主生产14纳米芯片。如果中国不需要美国就能生产他们所需的一切，美国又怎么对中国进行技术封锁呢？

Robert Vannrox
The question is about the United States.

这个问题是关于美国的。

“How will the United States react to Chinese advances in Integrated Chip manufacturing technology.”

“美国将如何应对中国在集成芯片制造技术方面的进步。”

Firstly, the 28nm and the 14nm processes are both fully operable and domestically produced in China. And since this is demonstratively both mature, and capable technologies, the tense in the question needs to be changed…

首先，中国对于28纳米和14纳米工艺都已经完全掌握并已在国内生产。而且由于这两种技术都已明显成熟且产能强大，所以问题中的时态需要改变...

From “Past Tense”

从“过去时”
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“China has just finished the development”

“中国刚刚完成了开发”
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To “Present Tense”

到“现在时”

“China is producing”

“中国正在生产”

As well as…

以及...

From “Effort Type”

从“努力类型”

“China is working on…”

“中国正在努力...”

To “Effort Type”

到“努力类型”
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“China is producing”

“中国正在生产”

…
So the questioner is actually out-of-date on the actual situation. 14nm production levels were obtained in 2021. On a Chinese scale, this was “centuries ago”.

因此，提问者对现实情况了解已经过时了。14纳米的生产水平是在2021年实现的。按照中国的标准，这已经是“几个世纪前”的事了。

China has been producing 14nm for some time now and the products are out there all over the world already. These are domestically produced chips.

中国已经生产14纳米芯片有一段时间了，这些产品已经遍布全球。这些都是国内生产的芯片。
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In fact, China is RIGHT NOW producing 5nm chips.

事实上，中国现在正在生产5纳米芯片。

…
Next will come the invariable questions about even smaller chip sizes.

接下来将不可避免地出现关于更小芯片尺寸的问题。

Let me assure you that China is presently producing much, much smaller sized integrated chips in small batch processes. There are NUMEROUS efforts, using numerous and different technologies. Here’s a lix for the “Dimensity 9000”.

我向你保证，中国目前正在小批量生产尺寸小得多的集成芯片。有许多不同的技术正在被使用。这里有一个关于“天玑9000”的链接。

Dimensity reached a staggering 1007396 points in the running test, becoming the first mobile phone chip to break the million ceiling. Its performance is 35% better than Snapdragon 888, and it directly won ten global firsts. It is expected that major mobile phone manufacturers such as Samsung and xiaomi will carry this chip. Now, mobile phone manufacturers such as xiaomi and Honor have passed internal tests and are expected to be mass-produced and commercialized in the first quarter of next year.

天玑在运行测试中达到了惊人的1007396分，成为第一个突破百万上限的手机芯片。其性能比骁龙888好35%，并直接赢得了十项全球第一。预计三星和小米等主要手机制造商将采用这款芯片。现在，小米和荣耀等手机制造商已经通过了内部测试，预计将在明年第一季度大规模生产和商业化。

And, there is not a damn thing that anyone can do about it.

而且，没有人能阻止这个事情。

…
OK. So 4nm is firing up Pilot and (very soon) production operations.

好的。所以4纳米正在启动试点和（很快）生产操作。

Now…

现在...

There’s now the 0.2nm that China is also firing up at the same time. Yup! 0.2nm.

现在还有0.2纳米，中国也在同时启动。是的！0.2纳米。
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Zero Point Two nm.

零点二纳米。

Not 2nm. No.

不是2纳米。不是。

0 . 2 nm

0.2纳米
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Holy Shit!

天哪！
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The United States, and the West will NEVER be able to “catch up”.

美国和西方永远无法“追上”。

…
China is ALSO engaged in “game changing” and “mind boggling” technologies that perform complete “run arounds” of the Western “closed fist” technologies that the United States so earnestly desires to maintain its cloistered holds upon.

中国还在从事“改变游戏规则”和“令人难以置信”的技术，这些技术完全“绕过”了美国如此渴望维持其封闭控制的西方“紧握拳头”的技术。

Initial results are clear; China WILL Surpass the present “loggerheads” maintained by the West in a fraction of a decade. Perhaps as early as 3 years.

初步结果表明；中国将在不到十年的时间里超越西方维持的“封锁”。可能最早在3年内。
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And in so doing, will overcome production and quality hurdles by a factor of 10x (ten times) better than what the West currently possess. These are generational advancements.

通过这样做，将克服生产和质量障碍，比西方目前拥有的要好10倍（十倍）。这些是代际进步。

…
But the question, of course, is not about China. If it was, the content would be about the product, the use, the technology and the access to that technology.

但问题当然不是关于中国的。如果是的话，内容将是关于产品、使用、技术和获取该技术的途径。

The question is about the United States.

问题是关于美国的。

What is it gonna do?

它将会怎么做？

…
Have you ever gone to a farm? Have you ever watched a bunch of chickens scurrying about in the fenced in chicken coop?

你去过农场吗？你看过一群鸡在围栏里的鸡舍里忙碌吗？

Yeah.

是的。

That’s the American “leadership”.

那就是美国的“领导”。

Lots of squawking.

大声叫嚣。

Much strutting about, and pontification of all times with feigned anger and outrage. Sort of like the Tiktok hearings, eh.

到处炫耀，装模作样地表达愤怒和愤慨。有点像Tiktok听证会，对吧。

They’ll all be a running about. Making a lot of noise.

他们都会到处乱跑。制造很多噪音。

Picking and pecking at things. Any things.

挑剔和啄食东西。任何东西。

…
Clowns wearings suits and ties, acting more powerful than they really are, making pronouncements designed to impress a truly dumbed-down audience.

小丑们穿着西装打着领带，表现得比他们实际上更有力量，发表旨在给真正愚蠢的观众留下深刻印象的声明。

Yup.

是的。

The Congress is gonna go “clown show” on us again.

国会又要在我们面前上演“小丑秀”了。

Start a banging on the table and then scream (behind closed doors) to its military “well… do something”.

开始在桌子上猛敲，然后对它的军队尖叫（在闭门背后）“好吧...做点什么”。

And that is exactly what China wants, and is hoping for.

这正是中国想要的，也是中国所希望的。
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China is more than ready.

中国已经做好了充分的准备。

…
The USA already tried to shoot its wad and the world discovered that it's got bumpkis.

美国已经尝试过使用它的一切手段，然而世界发现它一无所有。

The Tanya Harding method of competition is not working, and will never work. You cannot excel in a competitive environment by attacking your rivals. You must best them by merit, skill, ability and endurance. Not by brute force and schemes.

塔尼娅·哈丁的竞争方法不起作用，也永远不会起作用。你不能通过攻击你的对手在竞争环境中脱颖而出。你必须凭借优点、技能、能力和耐力胜过他们。而不是靠蛮力和计谋。
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…
So what will the USA do?

那么美国会怎么做？

Well judging from the recent past, we can expect more of the same from an ignorant, uncreative, slothful and (obviously) jealous “leadership”…

好吧，从最近的过去来看，我们可以预期一个无知、缺乏创造力、懒惰和（显然）嫉妒的“领导”会做出更多相同的事情...

More banning of Chinese products to the West.
More sanctions on everything.
More tariffs.
More duties.
More restrictions.
More laws and rules and regulations.
More and more and more.

更多地禁止中国产品进入西方。
对一切事物实施更多的制裁。
更多的关税。
更多的税收。
更多的限制。
更多的法律和规则和规定。
越来越多。
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This crop of ignoramus losers running the United States “shit show” are so amazingly and astoundingly incompetent, that they don’t even nowhere the “brakes” are. It’s just “petal to the metal”. Full steam ahead.

这群管理美国“糟糕表演”的无知失败者是如此令人惊讶和震惊的无能，以至于他们甚至不知道“刹车”在哪里。它只是“踩到底”。全速前进。

WHAT A BUNCH OF LOSERS.

真是一群失败者。

…
Already the United States is the laughing stock of the world.

美国已经成为世界的笑柄。

Americans can only dream about having high speed like Laos has. But Americans will never get that kind of infrastructure.

美国人只能梦想拥有像老挝那样的高铁。但美国人永远不会得到那种基础设施。

Ports and airports like Zambia has. But Americans will never get that kind of infrastructure.

像赞比亚那样的港口和机场。但美国人永远不会得到那种基础设施。

Wireless connectivity like Nigeria has.

像尼日利亚那样的无线连接。

Roads like Bangladesh has.

像孟加拉国那样的道路。
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America has fallen so damn far behind that it is not just a joke. It is a travesty.

美国已经落后得离谱，这不仅仅是个笑话。这是一场闹剧。

…
So what is REALLY going to happen?

那么真正会发生什么呢？
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Same-Oh. Same-Oh.

老样子。老样子。
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And that is what is really gonna happen.

这就是真正会发生的事情。
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Felix Su
The US is praying that divine intervention will occur.

美国正在祈祷会有神的介入。

The US has no prayers of stopping Chinese chip making.

美国没有办法阻止中国的芯片制造。

And it’s worse than what you think. The 28nm machine will go into mass production next year. The EUV machine is already being tested. China has the 3 core technologies needed to build one. Namely the EUV light source, the mirror system, and the stage.

情况比你想象的还要糟糕。28纳米机器将在明年投入大规模生产。EUV机器已经在测试中。中国拥有构建它所需的3项核心技术。即EUV光源、反射镜系统和平台。
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And China is also working on leap frogging the US on the next generation EUV machine. They are using a SSMB accelerator to generate high intensity EUV. Whereas ASML is trying to bump the lasers being used by 10 times the power.

而且中国还努力在下一代EUV机器上超越美国。他们正在使用SSMB加速器产生高强度的EUV。而ASML正在尝试将使用的激光功率提高10倍。

This is going to be very very difficult to do. The machine also has to dissipate that power. The cooling is going to be a nightmare and the laser is going to be much larger than the previous machines.

这将是非常非常难做到的。机器还必须散发那种能量。冷却它将是一场噩梦，激光器将比以前的机器大得多。

But China no longer cares what ASML is working on. They’re doing their own solution. In the next 2 years you will see the Chinese test a domestic EUV machine. Then go to mass production.

但中国不再关心ASML在做什么。他们正在研发自己的解决方案。在接下来的2年内，你将看到中国测试一台国产的极紫外光（EUV）机器。然后进入大规模生产。

In 4–5 years, the SSMB will be ready for installation into a production line for 3nm, 2nm, and maybe 1nm chips.

在4到5年内，SSMB将准备好安装到3纳米、2纳米，甚至可能是1纳米芯片的生产线上。