第六代战斗机 - 龙腾网移动版

Within the next few years, we will begin work on the sixth generation [fighter] capabilities necessary for future air dominance.” The Secretary of the Air Force, Michael B. Donley, and the USAF Chief of Staff, Gen. Norton A. Schwartz, issued that statement in an April 13 Washington Post article.

“在未来几年内，我们将开始研发确保未来空中优势所需的第六代[战斗机]能力。” 美国空军部长迈克尔·B·唐利和空军参谋长诺顿·A·施瓦茨将军在4月13日的一篇《华盛顿邮报》文章中发表了这一声明。

The Air Force may have to move a little faster to develop that next generation fighter. While anticipated F-22 and F-35 inventories seem settled, there won’t be enough to fix shortfalls in the fighter fleet over the next 20 years, as legacy fighters retire faster than fifth generation replacements appear.

然而，空军可能需要加快第六代战斗机的研发步伐。目前虽然F-22和F-35的计划库存似乎已经确定，但在未来20年内，这些数量不足以弥补战斗机机队的缺口，因为现役战斗机的退役速度比第五代战斗机的补充速度更快。

The Air Force will have to answer a host of tough questions about the nature of the next fighter.

空军需要回答一系列关于下一代战斗机性质的关键问题。

Should it provide a true “quantum leap” in capability, from fifth to sixth generation, or will some interim level of technology suffice? When will it have to appear? What kinds of fighters will potential adversaries be fielding in the next 20 years? And, if the program is delayed, will a defense industry with nothing to work on in the meantime lose its know-how to deliver the needed system

它是否应该实现从第五代到第六代的真正“跨越式”能力提升，还是某种过渡性的技术水平就足够？何时需要这款战斗机问世？未来20年内潜在对手将装备何种战斗机？如果研发计划推迟，国防工业在此期间没有新项目可做，是否会失去研发所需的技术能力？

What seems certain is that more is riding on the Air Force’s answers than just replacing worn-out combat aircraft.

可以确定的是，空军的答案关系的不仅仅是替换老化的作战飞机，这背后有更深远的意义。

Initial concept studies for what would become the F-22 began in the early 1980s, when production of the F-15 was just hitting its stride. It took 20 years to go from those concepts to initial operational capability. Industry leaders believe that it will probably take another 20 years to field a next generation fighter.

F-22的初步概念研究始于20世纪80年代初，当时F-15的生产刚进入高峰期。从最初的概念到具备初始作战能力花了20年时间。业内人士认为，下一代战斗机的研发和部署可能也需要20年时间。

That may be late to need. By 2030, according to internal USAF analyses, the service could be as many as 971 aircraft short of its minimum required inventory of 2,250 fighters. That assumes that all planned F-35s are built and delivered on time and at a rate of at least 48 per year. The shortfall is due to the mandatory retirement of F-15s and F-16s that will have exceeded their service lives and may no longer be safe to fly.

但这可能会错过需求时机。根据美国空军内部分析，到2030年，空军可能会比最低需求的2,250架战斗机短缺多达971架。这还是假设所有计划中的F-35都能按时生产并以每年至少48架的速度交付。短缺的原因是F-15和F-16达到服役寿命后必须退役，届时可能已不再适合飞行，存在安全隐患。

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has set the tone for the tactical aviation debate. He opposed the F-22 as being an expensive, “exquisite” solution to air combat requirements, and has put emphasis on the less costly F-35 Lightning II instead. He considers it exemplary of the kind of multirole platforms, applicable to a wide variety of uses, that he believes the US military should be buying in coming years. He and his technology managers have described this approach as the “75 percent” solution.

防部长罗伯特·M·盖茨为战术航空领域的讨论定下了基调。他反对F-22，认为其昂贵且过于“精致”，无法满足实际空战需求。他更强调成本较低的F-35“闪电II”，认为它是多用途平台的典范，可以广泛应用于各种任务，是未来美军应该采购的机型。他和技术团队将这一理念称为“75%的解决方案”。

Gates has also forecast that a Russian fifth generation fighter will be operational in 2016—Russia says it will fly the fighter this year—and a Chinese version just four years later. Given that US legacy fighters are already matched or outclassed by “generation four-plus-plus” fighters, if Russia and China build their fifth generation fighters in large numbers, the US would be at a clear airpower disadvantage in the middle of the 2020s. That’s a distinct possibility, as both countries have openly stated their intentions to build world-class air fleets. If they do, the 75 percent solution fails.

盖茨还预测，俄罗斯的第五代战斗机将在2016年投入使用——俄罗斯声称该战斗机今年就会试飞——而中国版本将在四年后服役。考虑到美国现役战斗机已经被“第四代++”战斗机匹敌甚至超越，如果俄罗斯和中国大规模生产第五代战斗机，美国在2020年代中期的空中力量优势将明显下降。这种情况很可能发生，因为两国都公开表示要打造世界一流的空中力量。如果真如此，“75%的解决方案”将难以奏效。

What You See Is What You Get

所见即所得

The Air Force declined to offer official comment on the status of its sixth generation fighter efforts. Privately, senior leaders have said they have been waiting to see how the F-22 and F-35 issues sorted out before establishing a structured program for a next generation fighter.

空军拒绝对其第六代战斗机的研发进展发表正式评论。但私下里，高层领导表示，他们在制定下一代战斗机的正式计划之前，一直在等待F-22和F-35相关问题的解决。

The Air Force has a large classified budget, but it seems there is no “black” sixth generation fighter program waiting in the wings. A senior industry official, with long-term, intimate knowledge of classified efforts, said the F-22 wasn’t stopped at 187 aircraft because a secret, better fighter is nearly ready to be deployed. He said, “What you see is what you get.”

尽管空军拥有大规模的机密预算，但似乎没有所谓的“黑色项目”正在秘密研发第六代战斗机。一位对机密项目有长期深入了解的资深业内人士表示，F-22停产于187架并不是因为一款更先进的战斗机即将部署。他坦言：“你看到的就是现状。”

That opinion was borne out in interviews with the top aeronautic technologists of Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman, the three largest remaining US airfrxrs. They said they were unaware of an official, dedicated Air Force sixth generation fighter program and are anxiously waiting to see what capabilities the service wants in such a fighter.

这一观点在对波音、洛克希德·马丁和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼这三家美国最大的飞机制造商的顶级航空技术专家的采访中得到了验证。他们表示，并不知晓空军有任何官方的专门第六代战斗机计划，并且正焦急地等待空军明确这一战斗机应具备的能力要求。
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The possibilities for a sixth generation fighter seem almost the stuff of science fiction.

第六代战斗机的可能性几乎像是科幻小说中的情节。
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It would likely be far stealthier than even the fifth generation aircraft. It may be able to change its shape in flight, “morphing” to optimize for either speed or persistence, and its engines will likely be retunable in-flight for efficient supersonic cruise or subsonic loitering.

它的隐身性能可能远超第五代战斗机。或许能够在飞行中改变外形，通过“变形”来优化速度或续航能力；其发动机可能也能在飞行中重新调整，以实现高效的超音速巡航或低速盘旋。

The sixth generation fighter will likely have directed energy weapons—high-powered microwaves and lasers for defense against incoming missiles or as offensive weapons themselves. Munitions would likely be of the “dial an effect” type, able to cause anything from impairment to destruction of an air or ground target.

第六代战斗机可能会装备定向能武器，例如高能微波和激光，用于防御来袭导弹，甚至直接作为攻击性武器。其弹药可能属于“效果可调”类型，可根据需求对空中或地面目标造成从干扰到摧毁的各种效果。

Materials and microelectronics technologies would combine to make the aircraft a large integrated sensor, possibly eliminating the need for a nose radar as it is known today. It would be equipped for making cyber attacks as well as achieving kinetic effects, but would still have to be cost-effective to make, service, and modify.

材料和微电子技术的结合可能会使第六代战斗机成为一个大型一体化传感器，或许无需像今天这样安装机鼻雷达。同时，该战斗机将具备实施网络攻击的能力，不仅能够实现动能打击，还需要具备成本效益，以便于制造、维护和改装。

Moreover, the rapid advancement of unmanned aircraft technologies could, in 20 years or so, make feasible production of an autonomous robotic fighter. However, that is considered less likely than the emergence of an uninhabited but remotely piloted aircraft with an off-board “crew,” possibly comprising many operators.

此外，无人机技术的快速发展可能在未来20年左右使生产完全自主的机器人战斗机成为可能。然而，更有可能的是出现一种无人但由远程操控的飞机，其“机组”可能由多个操作员组成，在地面或其他平台上远程控制。
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Not clear, yet, is whether the mission should be fulfilled by a single, multirole platform or a series of smaller, specialized aircraft, working in concert.

目前尚不明确，这种任务是应由单一的多用途平台完成，还是通过一系列更小型、专用的飞机协同完成。

“I think this next round [of fighter development] is probably going to be dominated by ever-increasing amounts of command and control information,” said Paul K. Meyer, vice president and general manager of Northrop Grumman’s Advanced Programs and Technology Division.

诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司高级项目与技术部门副总裁兼总经理保罗·K·迈耶说道：“我认为下一轮[战斗机研发]可能会被不断增加的指挥与控制信息所主导。”

Meyer forecast that vast amounts of data will be available to the pilot, who may or may not be on board the aircraft. The pilot will see wide-ranging, intuitive views of “the extended world” around the aircraft, he noted. The aircraft will collect its own data and seamlessly fuse it with off-board sensors, including those on other aircraft. The difference from fifth generation will be the level of detail and certainty—the long-sought automatic target recognition.

迈耶预测，飞行员（无论是否在机上）将能够获取海量数据，并直观地看到飞机周围“扩展世界”的广泛视图。他指出，这种飞机将自行采集数据，并与来自其他平台（包括其他飞机）的传感器数据无缝融合。与第五代战斗机的不同之处在于，第六代战斗机的数据精细度和确定性将达到新的高度——实现长期追求的自动目标识别功能。

Directed Energy Weapons

定向能量武器

Embedded sensors and microelectronics will also make possible sensor arrays in “locations that previously weren’t available because of either heat or the curvature of the surface,” providing more powerful and comprehensive views of the battlefield, Meyer noted. Although the aircraft probably won’t be autonomous, he said, it will be able to “learn” and advise the pilot as to what actions to take—specifically, whether a target should be incapacitated temporarily, damaged, or destroyed.

嵌入式传感器和微电子技术还将使传感器阵列能够安装在“由于热量或表面曲率而以往无法利用的位置”，从而提供更强大、更全面的战场视图，迈耶指出。尽管飞机可能不会实现完全自主，他表示，它将具备“学习”能力，并能够向飞行员提供建议，包括是否应暂时使目标失效、造成损伤，还是彻底摧毁。

Traditional electronics will probably give way to photonics, said Darryl W. Davis, president of Boeing’s advanced systems division.

波音公司先进系统部门总裁达里尔·W·戴维斯表示，传统电子技术可能会被光子技术所取代。

“You could have fewer wires,” said Davis. “You’re on a multiplexed, fiber-optic bus … that connects all the systems, and because you can do things at different wavelengths of light, you can move lots of data around airplanes much faster, with much less weight in terms of … wire bundles.”

戴维斯说道：“你可以减少电缆的使用，你会使用多路复用光纤总线……它连接着所有系统，且由于你可以在不同的光波长下进行操作，你可以更快地在飞机上传输大量数据，同时减少电缆捆绑的重量。”

Fiber optics would also be resistant to jamming or spoofing of data and less prone to cyber attack.

光纤还具有抗干扰、抗数据欺骗的能力，并且不易受到网络攻击。

A “digital wingman” could accompany the main fighter as an extra sensor-shooter smart enough to take verbal instructions, Meyer forecasted.

迈耶预测，一架“数字副翼”可以与主战斗机一起飞行，作为一个额外的传感器和射手，足够智能，能够接受口头指令。

Directed energy weapons could play a big role in deciding how agile a sixth generation fighter would have to be, Meyer noted. “Speed of light” weapons, he added, could “negate” the importance of “the maneuverability we see in today’s fashionable fighters.” There won’t be time to maneuver away from a directed energy attack.

迈耶还指出，定向能武器可能在决定第六代战斗机需要具备多大机动性方面起到重要作用。他补充说，“光速”武器可能会“消除”今天流行战斗机所强调的“机动性”。面对定向能攻击时，飞行员将没有时间进行机动规避。

Pulse weapons could also fry an enemy aircraft’s systems—or those of a ground target. Based on what “we have seen and we make at Northrop Grumman,” Meyer said, “in the next 20 years … that type of technology is going to be available.”

脉冲武器还可以摧毁敌方飞机的系统，或击中地面目标。迈耶表示，基于“我们在诺斯罗普·格鲁曼看到的技术”，在未来20年内，这类技术将会问世。

With an appropriate engine—possibly an auxiliary engine—on board to provide power for directed energy weapons, there could be an “unlimited magazine” of shots, Meyer said.

迈耶表示，如果配备合适的发动机——可能是辅助发动机——为定向能武器提供动力，那么可以实现“无限弹药”供给。

Hypersonics—that is, the ability of an air vehicle to travel at five times the speed of sound, or faster—has routinely been suggested as an attribute of sixth generation fighters, but the industry leaders are skeptical the capability will be ready in time.

高超音速——即飞行器能够以音速五倍或更高的速度飞行——通常被认为是第六代战斗机的一个特征，但业内领导者对这一能力能否按时实现持怀疑态度。

While there have been some successes with experimental hypersonic propulsion, the total amount of true hypersonic flying time is less than 15 minutes, and the leap to an operational fighter in 20 years might be a leap too far.

尽管高超音速推进实验取得了一些成功，但真正的高超音速飞行时间总共不到15分钟，且要在20年内实现高超音速战斗机的服役，可能是一个过于艰巨的挑战。

“It entails a whole new range of materials development, due to … sensors, fuzes, apertures, etc.,” Meyer noted, “all of which must operate in that intense heat environment at … Mach 5-plus.”

迈耶指出，“这需要全新的材料开发，因为……传感器、引信、开口等部件必须在Mach 5以上的高温环境中工作。”

Still, “it is indeed an option that we would consider” because targets will be fleeting and require quick, surgical strikes at great distances. However, such an approach would probably be incompatible with a loitering capability.

尽管如此，他表示，“这确实是我们会考虑的选项”，因为目标通常是短暂的，需要在极大距离上进行快速、精准的打击。然而，这种方法可能与滞空能力不兼容。

Davis said he thinks hypersonics “will start to show up in sixth generation,” but not initially as the platform’s power plant, but rather in the aircraft’s kinetic munitions.

戴维斯表示，他认为高超音速技术“将开始出现在第六代战斗机中”，但最初不会作为平台的动力系统，而是作为飞机的动能弹药。
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“I think it will start with applications to weapons,” Davis said. And they may not necessarily be just weapons but “high-speed reconnaissance platforms for short missions on the way to the target.”

“我认为它将首先应用于武器，”戴维斯说。而且这些应用不一定仅限于武器，也可能是“用于短程任务的高速侦察平台，前往目标的途中。”

Because of the extreme speed of hypersonic platforms and especially directed energy weapons, Davis thinks it will be critical to have “persistent eyes on target” because speed-of-light weapons can’t be recalled “once you’ve pulled the trigger,” and even at hypersonic speed, a target may move before the weapon arrives. That would suggest a flotilla of stealthy drones or sensors positioned around the battlefield.

由于高超音速平台，特别是定向能武器的极端速度，戴维斯认为，必须确保“持续的目标监视”，因为光速武器在“扣动扳机”后无法撤回，即使是高超音速武器，目标也可能在武器到达之前已经移动。这暗示着需要一支隐形无人机或传感器编队，部署在战场周围。

Not only will hypersonics require years more work, Davis said it must be combined with other, variable-cycle engines that will allow an aircraft to take off from sea level, climb to high altitude, and then engage a hypersonic engine. Those enabling propulsion elements are not necessarily near at hand in a single package.

戴维斯还表示，高超音速技术不仅需要更多年的研发，还必须与其他可变循环发动机相结合，这些发动机能够让飞机从海平面起飞、爬升至高空，然后使用高超音速发动机。这些支持性推进技术目前并不容易整合成一个完整的系统。

The sixth generation fighter, whatever it turns out to be, will still be a machine and will need to be serviced, repaired, and modified, according to Neil Kacena, deputy director of Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works advanced projects division. He is less confident that major systems such as radar will be embedded in the aircraft skin.

第六代战斗机，无论最终形态如何，仍然是一台机器，需要进行维护、修理和改装，洛克希德·马丁公司“臭鼬工厂”先进项目部门副主任尼尔·卡塞纳表示。他对于将雷达系统嵌入机体外壳的技术持较为谨慎的态度。

“If the radar doesn’t work, and now you have to take the wing off, … then that may not be the technology that will find its way onto a sixth gen aircraft,” he said. In designing the next fighter, life cycle costs will be crucial, and so practical considerations will have to be accommodated.

他说：“如果雷达出现故障，而你还得拆掉机翼……那么这可能不是能够应用于第六代战斗机的技术。”在设计下一代战斗机时，生命周期成本将是至关重要的，因此必须考虑到实际操作中的各种因素。

Toward that end, he said, Lockheed Martin is working on new composite manufacturing techniques that use far fewer fasteners, less costly tooling, and therefore lower start-up and sustainment costs. It demonstrated those technologies recently on the Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft program.

为此，他表示，洛克希德·马丁正在开发新的复合材料制造技术，这些技术使用的紧固件更少，工具成本更低，因此启动和维持成本也更低。该公司最近在先进复合材料货运飞机项目中展示了这些技术。

Given the anticipated capabilities of the Russian and Chinese fifth generation fighters, when will a sixth generation aircraft have to be available

鉴于俄罗斯和中国第五代战斗机预计的能力，第六代战斗机的可用时间将何时到来？

Davis said the Air Force and Navy, not industry, will have to decide how soon they need a new generation of fighters. However, “if the services are thinking they need something in 2020” when foreign fifth generation fighters could be proliferating in large numbers, “we’re going to have to do some things to our existing generation of platforms,” such as add the directed energy weapons or other enhancements.

戴维斯表示，空军和海军而非工业界将决定何时需要新一代战斗机。然而，“如果军方认为在2020年需要某种战斗机”，即当外国第五代战斗机可能大规模扩散时，“我们将不得不对现有平台做出一些改进”，例如添加定向能量武器或其他增强功能。

Kacena agreed, saying that Lockheed Martin has “engaged with both services and supplied them data and our perspectives” about the next round of fighter development. If the need exists to make a true quantum leap, then sixth generation is the way to go, but, “if it’s driven by the reduction in force structure [and] … the equipment is just getting old and worn out in that time frx, then [we] may very well be on a path of continuous improvement of fifth generation capabilities.” Lockheed Martin makes both the F-22 and F-35.

卡塞纳同意这一观点，并表示洛克希德·马丁公司已经“与空军和海军进行接洽，提供了数据和我们的观点”，以支持下一轮战斗机发展。如果确实需要实现真正的质的飞跃，那么第六代战斗机是解决方案，但“如果需求仅仅是因为军事力量规模缩减，设备在那个时间段已经老化和磨损，那么我们可能会走上一条持续提升第五代能力的道路。”洛克希德·马丁公司制造了F-22和F-35两款战斗机。

He said the company’s goal is to find the knee in the curve where “you get them the most bang for the buck without an 80 to 90 percent solution. Something that doesn’t take them beyond the nonlinear increase in cost.”

他说，该公司的目标是找到曲线的拐点，在这个点上，“他们能够以最少的投入获得最大的回报，而不是80%到90%的解决方案。这样做可以避免让成本呈非线性增长。”

Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, the Air Force deputy chief of staff for intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance and a fighter pilot, said the next fighter generation may well have characteristics fundamentally different from any seen today, but he urged defense decision-makers to keep an open mind and not ignore hard-learned lessons from history.

空军情报-监视-侦察副参谋长、大校飞行员大卫·A·德普图拉中将表示，下一代战斗机可能会具备今天尚未见过的根本不同的特性，但他呼吁国防决策者保持开放的心态，不能忽视从历史中吸取的宝贵教训。

Although great strides have been made in unmanned aircraft, said Deptula, “we have a long way to go to achieve the degree of 360-degree spherical situation awareness, rapid assimilation of information, and translation of that information into action that the human brain, lixed with its on-site sensors, can accomplish.”

德普图拉指出，尽管无人机取得了巨大进展，但“我们仍有很长的路要走，才能达到360度的全方位态势感知、信息的快速整合以及将这些信息转化为行动的程度，这是人类大脑与其现场传感器相结合所能做到的。”
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Numbers Count, Too

数量上也算

Despite rapid increases in computer processing power, it will be difficult for a machine to cope with “an infinite number of potential situations that are occurring in split seconds,” Deptula added, noting that, until such a capability is proved, “we will still require manned aircraft.”

尽管计算机处理能力迅速提高，德普图拉补充道，机器要应对“在瞬间发生的无数潜在情况”仍然很困难，并指出，在这种能力被证明之前，“我们仍然需要有人驾驶的飞机。”

It’s important to note that America’s potential adversaries will have access to nearly all the technologies now only resident with US forces, Deptula said. Thinking 20 to 30 years out, it will be necessary to invest properly to retain things US forces depend on, such as air superiority.

他还指出，值得注意的是，美国潜在的对手将能够接触到目前仅限于美国军队的几乎所有技术。展望20到30年，必须适当投资以保持美国军队所依赖的能力，比如制空权。

However, he warned not to put too much emphasis on technology, per se. “Just as precision air weapons and, to a certain degree, cyberspace are redefining our definition of mass in today’s fight, we have to be very wary of how quickly ‘mass’ in its classic sense can return in an era of mass-precision and mass-cyber capabilities for all.”

然而，他警告说，不应过于强调技术本身。“就像精准空袭武器和某种程度上网络空间正在重新定义我们今天战争中的‘兵力’一样，我们必须非常警惕，在大规模精准打击和大规模网络能力普及的时代，‘兵力’这一经典意义上的概念是如何迅速恢复的。”

In other words, numbers count, and too few fighters, even if they are extremely advanced, are still too few.

换句话说，数量也很重要，即便是极为先进的战斗机，数量过少，仍然不够。

Hanging over the sixth generation fighter debate is this stark fact: The relevant program should now be well under way, but it has not even been defined. If the Pentagon wants a sixth generation capability, it will have to demonstrate that intent, and soon. Industry needs that clear signal if it is to invest its own money in developing the technologies needed to make the sixth generation fighter come about.

关于第六代战斗机的辩论中，存在一个严峻的事实：相关项目本应已经启动，但至今尚未明确。如果五角大楼希望拥有第六代能力，它必须尽快表明这一意图。工业界需要明确的信号，才能投入资金开发所需的技术，使第六代战斗机得以实现。

Moreover, the sixth generation program is necessary to keep the US aerospace industry on the cutting edge. Unless it is challenged, if the “90 percent” solution is needed in the future, industry may not be able to answer the call.

此外，第六代项目对于保持美国航空航天工业的前沿地位至关重要。除非受到挑战，如果未来需要“90%”的解决方案，工业界可能无法应对这一需求。

Under Gates, Pentagon technology leaders have said they want to avoid cost and schedule problems by deferring development until technologies are more mature. Unfortunately, this safe and steady approach does not stimulate leap-ahead technologies.

在盖茨领导下，五角大楼的技术负责人表示，他们希望通过推迟开发直到技术更成熟，以避免成本和进度问题。然而，不幸的是，这种保守而稳妥的方法并未刺激技术的飞跃性发展。

Meyer said, “We need to have challenges to our innovative thoughts, our engineering talents, our technology integration and development that would … push us … to the point where industry has to perform beyond expectations.”

迈耶表示：“我们需要对我们的创新思维、工程才能、技术整合与发展提出挑战……迫使我们达到一个行业必须超越预期的程度。”

He noted that today’s F-35 is predicated on largely proven technologies and “affordability,” but it was the B-2 and F-22 programs that really paved the way for the systems that underpin modern air combat.

他指出，今天的F-35是建立在大量已验证技术和“可负担性”基础上的，但正是B-2和F-22项目真正铺平了现代空中作战系统的道路。