鲁比奥获得了迄今为止最具挑战性的职位：委内瑞拉总督
正文翻译
Marco Rubio has held many titles during Donald Trump’s presidency. He may have just acquired his most challenging one yet: Viceroy of Venezuela.
在唐纳德·特朗普总统任期内，马尔科·卢比奥已承担过许多职务。而他最近或许获得了最具挑战性的一个职位：委内瑞拉总督。
The secretary of state, national security adviser, acting archivist and administrator of the now-defunct U.S. Agency for International Development was central to masterminding the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Saturday, officials familiar with the planning said.
据参与制定该计划的官员称，国务卿、国家安全顾问、代理档案员以及现已撤销的美国国际开发署的管理员，对于谋划在周六推翻委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的行动起到了核心作用。
But with no immediate successor to govern the country of roughly 29 million, Trump is leaning on Rubio to help “run” Venezuela, divvy up its oil assets and usher in a new government, a fraught and daunting task for someone with so many other responsibilities.
然而，面对这个约 2900 万人口的国家缺乏即时接任者的情况，特朗普正依赖鲁比奥协助“管理”委内瑞拉、分配其石油资产并引入新政府——对于已有众多其他职责的人来说，这无疑是一项充满风险且令人望而生畏的任务。
“The task in front of him is stupefying,” said a senior U.S. official, noting the dizzying array of policy decisions related to energy, elections, sanctions and security that await. This person, like others interviewed for this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to respond freely.
一位美国高级官员指出，等待解决的政策决策包括能源、选举、制裁和安全等方面，涉及面之广令人瞠目结舌。"摆在他面前的任务令人震惊。"这位官员说。和本文中采访的其他人一样，此人要求匿名以便畅所欲言。
The moment marks the realization of a long-held goal for Rubio, who has voiced his criticisms of Maduro and desire for change in Venezuela for well over a decade. Those who have worked closely with Rubio, whose parents left Cuba before the communist takeover in 1959, say the issues of the region are close to his heart.
这一时刻标志着卢比奥实现了一个长期以来的目标。十多年来，他一直对马杜罗持批评态度，并希望委内瑞拉发生变化。卢比奥的父母在 1959 年古巴共产党执政之前离开了古巴。与他密切合作过的人表示，该地区的问题与他的内心息息相关。
“Marco’s parents’ experience … is hardwired in him,” said Cesar Conda, a Republican strategist who worked as the former senator’s chief of staff between 2011 and 2014.
共和党战略家塞萨尔·孔达说："马尔科的父母经历...深刻地影响了他。"2011 年至 2014 年间，他曾担任这位前参议员的幕僚长。
U.S. officials say Rubio will play an outsize role in guiding U.S. policy as the Trump administration attempts to stabilize Venezuela.
美国官员表示，随着特朗普政府试图稳定委内瑞拉局势，鲁比奥将在指导美国政策方面发挥超常作用。
His Spanish proficiency, familiarity with Latin American leaders and the Venezuelan opposition make him a natural point man for Trump, said another senior U.S. official. But this person emphasized that the administration will need to appoint a full-time envoy to assist Rubio given the vast scope of decisions and responsibilities inherent in such a task.
另一位美国高级官员表示，鲁比奥精通西班牙语，熟悉拉美领导人和委内瑞拉反对派，这使他成为特朗普自然的前线人物。但此人强调，鉴于此项任务涉及的决策和责任范围广泛，政府需任命一名全职特使协助鲁比奥。
Trump, speaking to reporters after the operation, was vague when addressing questions about whether his administration is capable of running the Latin American country, saying “the people that are standing right behind me” will do so for a “period of time.”
特朗普在行动结束后对记者讲话时，对于政府是否有能力管理这个拉丁美洲国家的问题含糊其辞，称"站在我身后的这些人"将在一段时间内负责此事。
The president hailed Rubio’s initial talks with Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez.
总统赞扬了卢比奥与马杜罗的副总统德尔西·罗德里格斯的初步会谈。
“He just had a conversation with her, and she’s essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again,” Trump said. Shortly after his comments, Rodríguez contradicted Trump’s plans for her country, saying Venezuela “will never return to being the colony of another empire.”
“他刚和她进行了一次谈话，她基本上愿意做我们认为必要的事情，让委内瑞拉再次伟大起来，”特朗普说。在他发表这番言论后不久，罗德里格斯对特朗普对她国家的计划提出了反驳，称委内瑞拉“永远不会再成为另一个帝国的殖民地”。
The U.S. capture of the sweat-pant clad Maduro not only fulfills a long-held goal of Rubio’s but also represents a bureaucratic victory for him in an administration that includes ardent skeptics of regime change, in particular Vice President JD Vance.
美国抓获身穿运动裤的马杜罗不仅实现了卢比奥长期以来的目标，也代表了他在一个政府机构中的官僚胜利，这个政府机构包括对政权更迭持强烈怀疑态度的人，特别是副总统 JD·万斯。
“Many people were skeptical that some kind of extraction operation could be carried out without a hitch,” said Geoff Ramsey, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “He will see this as a resounding success for his foreign policy strategy.”
大西洋理事会高级研究员杰弗里·拉姆齐指出：“很多人曾怀疑这类撤离行动能否顺利实施。此次行动将被视为他外交战略的重大胜利。”
Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, said that while the removal of Maduro alone was unlikely to satisfy political exiles, it could help the Trump administration avoid an Iraq- or Afghanistan-style quagmire that hurts Republicans at the next election.
卡托研究所防务与外交政策研究主任贾斯汀·洛根指出，虽然单纯迫使马杜罗下台未必能让政治流亡者满意，但这可能帮助特朗普政府避免陷入类似伊拉克或阿富汗式的泥潭，以免拖累共和党人在下次选举中的表现。
“The only way it’s a mass political issue is if it gets bigger and costlier,” said Logan. “As long as the blood and treasure costs are this low, you can pretty much do whatever you want.”
"只有当冲突规模扩大、代价更高时，才会演变成重大政治议题，"洛根表示，"只要人员伤亡和财力消耗维持在当前低位，政府几乎可以随心所欲行事。"
Besides navigating the treacherous minefield of nation-building that lies ahead, Rubio will also have to rebuild trust among U.S. lawmakers, many of whom have accused him of lying to Congress when he said the Trump administration would seek congressional approval before taking military action against Venezuela.
除了应对前方艰巨的国家建设任务之外，鲁比奥还必须重建在美国立法者中的信任，许多人曾指责他对国会撒谎，当时他表示特朗普政府将在对委内瑞拉采取军事行动前寻求国会批准。
“Secretaries Rubio and [Pete] Hegseth looked every Senator in the eye a few weeks ago and said this wasn’t about regime change. I didn’t trust them then and we see now that they blatantly lied to Congress,” said Sen. Andy Kim (D-New Jersey).
新泽西州民主党联邦参议员安迪·金表示："几周前，卢比奥部长和皮特·赫格赛斯逐个与参议员对视，他们说这无关政权更迭。我当时就不相信他们，现在我们可以看到，他们公然向国会撒了谎。"
In an interview with The Washington Post, Rubio denied that he lied and said he promised to get congressional approval only if the United States “was going to conduct military strikes for military purposes.”
在《华盛顿邮报》的一次采访中，卢比奥否认自己说谎，并表示他只承诺过，如果美国"为了军事目的进行军事打击"，他会寻求国会批准。
“This was not that. This was a law enforcement operation,” Rubio said, referring to the indictment against Maduro in the Southern District of New York on drug charges.
卢比奥说："这不是那么一回事。这是一次执法行动。"他指的是纽约南区对马杜罗涉嫌毒品犯罪的指控。
When pressed that U.S. forces bombing Venezuela, seizing its leader and claiming to “run” the country would be widely interpreted as a military operation, Rubio did not relent, saying “the mission last night was in support of the Department of Justice.”
当被问及美军轰炸委内瑞拉、抓捕其领导人并声称要"统治"该国是否会被普遍视为军事行动时，卢比奥没有让步，他说"昨晚的任务是为司法部提供支持。"
The argument failed to move some experts. Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, said that the law enforcement justification was a “convenient” excuse for the administration’s decision not to notify Congress.
这一论点未能说服所有专家。国防优先事项的军事分析主任詹妮弗·卡瓦纳表示，执法理由对于政府决定不通知国会来说是一个“方便的”借口。
The operation to capture Maduro “was extremely massive and complex,” Kavanagh added. “It doesn’t sound like a law enforcement operation to me.”
卡瓦纳补充道，抓捕马杜罗的行动"规模极大、极为复杂"，"在我看来，这不像是执法行动"。
Before joining the State Department, Rubio had long indicated that he supported using U.S. military force to oust Maduro, suggesting in a Spanish language interview in 2018 that there was a “strong argument” that the United States should do so.
在加入国务院之前，鲁比奥早就表明他支持动用美国军队来推翻马杜罗，在 2018 年的一次西班牙语采访中，他暗示美国这么做有"强有力的论据"。
The next year, during renewed tension with Maduro, Rubio posted photographs to social media of deposed foreign leaders, including Libya’s Moammar Gaddafi shortly before he was executed by rebel forces in 2011.
次年，在与马杜罗关系再度紧张之际，卢比奥在社交媒体上发布了一系列被废黜外国领导人的照片，其中包括利比亚的穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲——2011 年被反对派武装处决前不久的影像。
Though Trump had entertained the idea of talks with Maduro early last year, including those brokered in the early part of his term by envoy Richard Grenell that saw several detained U.S. citizens released, people close to the administration say that his instincts largely aligned with Rubio’s harder approach.
尽管特朗普去年年初曾考虑与马杜罗进行会谈——包括任期初期由特使理查德·格伦内尔促成的会谈，那次会谈促成数名被拘留的美国公民获释——但接近政府的人士称，特朗普的本能很大程度上与卢比奥更强硬的态度一致。
“Rubio and the president are working hand in glove on this,” and the two of them “were really running this thing,” said one individual close to the Trump administration who has known Rubio for many years.
一位与特朗普政府关系密切、认识卢比奥多年的人士表示：“卢比奥与总统在这方面正携手合作”，他们两人“确实在主导这件事”。
During a news conference on Saturday, Rubio implied that Cuba could face similar U.S. military action. “If I lived in Havana, and I was in the government, I’d be concerned, at least a little bit,” he said in response to a reporter’s question.
在周六的新闻发布会上，鲁比奥暗示古巴也可能面临类似的美国军事行动。"如果我住在哈瓦那，并且我在政府里，我会担心的，至少有一点，"他在回答记者提问时说。
Though former officials and analysts said they wouldn’t expect imminent military action against Cuba, it was likely that economic pressure would increase with Maduro removed from Venezuela.
尽管前官员和分析人士表示，他们预计不会对古巴采取迫在眉睫的军事行动，但随着马杜罗被逐出委内瑞拉，经济压力很可能会增加。
“I presume that one of the first demands that we would have as the United States with whoever is running things in Venezuela is that any support for Cuba will stop on the theory that that will then destabilize that regime and lead to a better outcome,” said Kevin Whitaker, who served as U.S. ambassador to Colombia during the first Trump administration.
曾在特朗普第一任政府期间担任美国驻哥伦比亚大使的凯文·惠特克表示："我猜测，无论谁在委内瑞拉掌权，我们美国提出的首要要求之一就是停止对古巴的任何支持，理由是这将破坏该政权稳定，并带来更好的结果。"
Exactly who is running things in Venezuela now is uncertain. Some Latin America experts said that the United States was probably underestimating the challenge of governing Venezuela with a small U.S. footprint.
目前尚不确定谁在委内瑞拉掌管大局。一些拉丁美洲专家表示，美国或许低估了在驻军不多的情况下治理委内瑞拉的挑战。
“Credible estimates of the number of boots on the ground required range from tens of thousands to well into the hundreds of thousands,” said Adam Isacson, a scholar at the Washington Office on Latin America. “In Panama in 1989, the occupying force was 27,000, and Venezuela is 12 times the size and 6.5 times the population — with a much broader array of armed and criminal groups.”
"关于需要派往现场的兵力，可信的估计范围从数万到数十万不等，"华盛顿拉丁美洲办公室学者亚当·艾萨克森表示。"1989 年巴拿马占领军的规模为 2.7 万人，而委内瑞拉的国土面积是其 12 倍，人口是其 6.5 倍——并且拥有更广泛的武装和犯罪组织。"
“So it is reasonable to expect the 15,000 troops currently deployed in the region to multiply by a factor of well over five, at the most conservative estimate,” Isacson added.
"因此，我们可以合理预期，目前部署在该地区的 1.5 万部队至少会增加到五倍以上，这是最保守的估计，"艾萨克森补充道。
By leaving Maduro’s vice president, Rodríguez, in place, the Trump administration may be trying to avoid a situation like in Iraq, where the government and military was almost completely purged, because that was a “catastrophe,” said Whitaker.
惠特克指出，通过让马杜罗的副总统罗德里格斯留任，特朗普政府可能试图避免类似伊拉克的情况，即政府与军队几乎被完全清洗，因为那是一场'灾难'。"
A former Senate staffer who remains in touch with Rubio said that they did not think U.S. officials would be performing a formal occupation like Paul Bremer and the Coalition Provisional Authority had done in Iraq.
一位与卢比奥保持联系的参议院前职员表示，他们不认为美国官员会像保罗·布雷默和联盟临时管理当局在伊拉克所做的那样进行正式占领。
“We’re going to tell them: ‘Hey, this is what you have to do in order for there not to be another strike,’” said the former staffer. “That’s what [Trump] sees as running the country.”
前白宫工作人员称："我们会告诉他们，'嘿，你们必须这样做，否则就会面临又一轮打击。'"他说："这就是（特朗普）的治国之道。"
John Feeley, a former senior State Department official and ambassador to Panama who worked on Latin America for decades, said it appears the administration is hoping initially to exercise influence over Venezuela through Rodríguez, whom he described as an “ideological communist” who was at “the heart of chavismo.”
曾在拉美工作数十载的美国国务院前高官、前驻巴拿马大使约翰·菲力称，似乎这届美国政府最初希望借助罗德里格斯对委内瑞拉施加影响。他将罗德里格斯形容为一名"意识形态gcd人"，是"查韦斯主义的核心"。
So far, Feeley said if Rodríguez is engaging behind the scenes, “she’s negotiating with Trump to save her skin.” And it’s unclear to what extent she can sway the rest of the military and political leadership.
菲力表示，到目前为止，如果罗德里格斯在幕后有行动，"那她就是在与特朗普谈判以求自保"。而且，尚不清楚她能在多大程度上影响其他军方领导人和政治领袖。
“The Trump administration’s hope is that after witnessing the events of today, all of those Venezuelan military leaders will be too scared to do anything other than follow Delcy’s orders,” he said. “But without boots on the ground, this is just noise.”
他说："特朗普政府希望，在目睹今天的事件后，所有委内瑞拉军方领导人都被吓坏了，除了听从德尔茜的命令外，不敢做任何事情。"他说："但是，不派地面部队，这一切都只是虚张声势而已。"
Feeley said he’s been stunned by “the precision and professionalism” of what the public has been told about the military operation in Venezuela. But, he said, that “stands in stark contrast to the uncertainty and lack of clarity that we heard from the president and Secretary Rubio about the future of how Venezuela is going to be run.”
菲力表示，他对公众获知的委内瑞拉军事行动的"精准和专业性"感到震惊。但他同时指出，"这与我们从总统和鲁比奥部长那里听到的关于委内瑞拉未来如何运行的不确定性和不清晰形成了鲜明对比。"
Marco Rubio has held many titles during Donald Trump’s presidency. He may have just acquired his most challenging one yet: Viceroy of Venezuela.
在唐纳德·特朗普总统任期内，马尔科·卢比奥已承担过许多职务。而他最近或许获得了最具挑战性的一个职位：委内瑞拉总督。
The secretary of state, national security adviser, acting archivist and administrator of the now-defunct U.S. Agency for International Development was central to masterminding the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Saturday, officials familiar with the planning said.
据参与制定该计划的官员称，国务卿、国家安全顾问、代理档案员以及现已撤销的美国国际开发署的管理员，对于谋划在周六推翻委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的行动起到了核心作用。
But with no immediate successor to govern the country of roughly 29 million, Trump is leaning on Rubio to help “run” Venezuela, divvy up its oil assets and usher in a new government, a fraught and daunting task for someone with so many other responsibilities.
然而，面对这个约 2900 万人口的国家缺乏即时接任者的情况，特朗普正依赖鲁比奥协助“管理”委内瑞拉、分配其石油资产并引入新政府——对于已有众多其他职责的人来说，这无疑是一项充满风险且令人望而生畏的任务。
“The task in front of him is stupefying,” said a senior U.S. official, noting the dizzying array of policy decisions related to energy, elections, sanctions and security that await. This person, like others interviewed for this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to respond freely.
一位美国高级官员指出，等待解决的政策决策包括能源、选举、制裁和安全等方面，涉及面之广令人瞠目结舌。"摆在他面前的任务令人震惊。"这位官员说。和本文中采访的其他人一样，此人要求匿名以便畅所欲言。
The moment marks the realization of a long-held goal for Rubio, who has voiced his criticisms of Maduro and desire for change in Venezuela for well over a decade. Those who have worked closely with Rubio, whose parents left Cuba before the communist takeover in 1959, say the issues of the region are close to his heart.
这一时刻标志着卢比奥实现了一个长期以来的目标。十多年来，他一直对马杜罗持批评态度，并希望委内瑞拉发生变化。卢比奥的父母在 1959 年古巴共产党执政之前离开了古巴。与他密切合作过的人表示，该地区的问题与他的内心息息相关。
“Marco’s parents’ experience … is hardwired in him,” said Cesar Conda, a Republican strategist who worked as the former senator’s chief of staff between 2011 and 2014.
共和党战略家塞萨尔·孔达说："马尔科的父母经历...深刻地影响了他。"2011 年至 2014 年间，他曾担任这位前参议员的幕僚长。
U.S. officials say Rubio will play an outsize role in guiding U.S. policy as the Trump administration attempts to stabilize Venezuela.
美国官员表示，随着特朗普政府试图稳定委内瑞拉局势，鲁比奥将在指导美国政策方面发挥超常作用。
His Spanish proficiency, familiarity with Latin American leaders and the Venezuelan opposition make him a natural point man for Trump, said another senior U.S. official. But this person emphasized that the administration will need to appoint a full-time envoy to assist Rubio given the vast scope of decisions and responsibilities inherent in such a task.
另一位美国高级官员表示，鲁比奥精通西班牙语，熟悉拉美领导人和委内瑞拉反对派，这使他成为特朗普自然的前线人物。但此人强调，鉴于此项任务涉及的决策和责任范围广泛，政府需任命一名全职特使协助鲁比奥。
Trump, speaking to reporters after the operation, was vague when addressing questions about whether his administration is capable of running the Latin American country, saying “the people that are standing right behind me” will do so for a “period of time.”
特朗普在行动结束后对记者讲话时，对于政府是否有能力管理这个拉丁美洲国家的问题含糊其辞，称"站在我身后的这些人"将在一段时间内负责此事。
The president hailed Rubio’s initial talks with Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez.
总统赞扬了卢比奥与马杜罗的副总统德尔西·罗德里格斯的初步会谈。
“He just had a conversation with her, and she’s essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again,” Trump said. Shortly after his comments, Rodríguez contradicted Trump’s plans for her country, saying Venezuela “will never return to being the colony of another empire.”
“他刚和她进行了一次谈话，她基本上愿意做我们认为必要的事情，让委内瑞拉再次伟大起来，”特朗普说。在他发表这番言论后不久，罗德里格斯对特朗普对她国家的计划提出了反驳，称委内瑞拉“永远不会再成为另一个帝国的殖民地”。
The U.S. capture of the sweat-pant clad Maduro not only fulfills a long-held goal of Rubio’s but also represents a bureaucratic victory for him in an administration that includes ardent skeptics of regime change, in particular Vice President JD Vance.
美国抓获身穿运动裤的马杜罗不仅实现了卢比奥长期以来的目标，也代表了他在一个政府机构中的官僚胜利，这个政府机构包括对政权更迭持强烈怀疑态度的人，特别是副总统 JD·万斯。
“Many people were skeptical that some kind of extraction operation could be carried out without a hitch,” said Geoff Ramsey, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “He will see this as a resounding success for his foreign policy strategy.”
大西洋理事会高级研究员杰弗里·拉姆齐指出：“很多人曾怀疑这类撤离行动能否顺利实施。此次行动将被视为他外交战略的重大胜利。”
Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, said that while the removal of Maduro alone was unlikely to satisfy political exiles, it could help the Trump administration avoid an Iraq- or Afghanistan-style quagmire that hurts Republicans at the next election.
卡托研究所防务与外交政策研究主任贾斯汀·洛根指出，虽然单纯迫使马杜罗下台未必能让政治流亡者满意，但这可能帮助特朗普政府避免陷入类似伊拉克或阿富汗式的泥潭，以免拖累共和党人在下次选举中的表现。
“The only way it’s a mass political issue is if it gets bigger and costlier,” said Logan. “As long as the blood and treasure costs are this low, you can pretty much do whatever you want.”
"只有当冲突规模扩大、代价更高时，才会演变成重大政治议题，"洛根表示，"只要人员伤亡和财力消耗维持在当前低位，政府几乎可以随心所欲行事。"
Besides navigating the treacherous minefield of nation-building that lies ahead, Rubio will also have to rebuild trust among U.S. lawmakers, many of whom have accused him of lying to Congress when he said the Trump administration would seek congressional approval before taking military action against Venezuela.
除了应对前方艰巨的国家建设任务之外，鲁比奥还必须重建在美国立法者中的信任，许多人曾指责他对国会撒谎，当时他表示特朗普政府将在对委内瑞拉采取军事行动前寻求国会批准。
“Secretaries Rubio and [Pete] Hegseth looked every Senator in the eye a few weeks ago and said this wasn’t about regime change. I didn’t trust them then and we see now that they blatantly lied to Congress,” said Sen. Andy Kim (D-New Jersey).
新泽西州民主党联邦参议员安迪·金表示："几周前，卢比奥部长和皮特·赫格赛斯逐个与参议员对视，他们说这无关政权更迭。我当时就不相信他们，现在我们可以看到，他们公然向国会撒了谎。"
In an interview with The Washington Post, Rubio denied that he lied and said he promised to get congressional approval only if the United States “was going to conduct military strikes for military purposes.”
在《华盛顿邮报》的一次采访中，卢比奥否认自己说谎，并表示他只承诺过，如果美国"为了军事目的进行军事打击"，他会寻求国会批准。
“This was not that. This was a law enforcement operation,” Rubio said, referring to the indictment against Maduro in the Southern District of New York on drug charges.
卢比奥说："这不是那么一回事。这是一次执法行动。"他指的是纽约南区对马杜罗涉嫌毒品犯罪的指控。
When pressed that U.S. forces bombing Venezuela, seizing its leader and claiming to “run” the country would be widely interpreted as a military operation, Rubio did not relent, saying “the mission last night was in support of the Department of Justice.”
当被问及美军轰炸委内瑞拉、抓捕其领导人并声称要"统治"该国是否会被普遍视为军事行动时，卢比奥没有让步，他说"昨晚的任务是为司法部提供支持。"
The argument failed to move some experts. Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, said that the law enforcement justification was a “convenient” excuse for the administration’s decision not to notify Congress.
这一论点未能说服所有专家。国防优先事项的军事分析主任詹妮弗·卡瓦纳表示，执法理由对于政府决定不通知国会来说是一个“方便的”借口。
The operation to capture Maduro “was extremely massive and complex,” Kavanagh added. “It doesn’t sound like a law enforcement operation to me.”
卡瓦纳补充道，抓捕马杜罗的行动"规模极大、极为复杂"，"在我看来，这不像是执法行动"。
Before joining the State Department, Rubio had long indicated that he supported using U.S. military force to oust Maduro, suggesting in a Spanish language interview in 2018 that there was a “strong argument” that the United States should do so.
在加入国务院之前，鲁比奥早就表明他支持动用美国军队来推翻马杜罗，在 2018 年的一次西班牙语采访中，他暗示美国这么做有"强有力的论据"。
The next year, during renewed tension with Maduro, Rubio posted photographs to social media of deposed foreign leaders, including Libya’s Moammar Gaddafi shortly before he was executed by rebel forces in 2011.
次年，在与马杜罗关系再度紧张之际，卢比奥在社交媒体上发布了一系列被废黜外国领导人的照片，其中包括利比亚的穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲——2011 年被反对派武装处决前不久的影像。
Though Trump had entertained the idea of talks with Maduro early last year, including those brokered in the early part of his term by envoy Richard Grenell that saw several detained U.S. citizens released, people close to the administration say that his instincts largely aligned with Rubio’s harder approach.
尽管特朗普去年年初曾考虑与马杜罗进行会谈——包括任期初期由特使理查德·格伦内尔促成的会谈，那次会谈促成数名被拘留的美国公民获释——但接近政府的人士称，特朗普的本能很大程度上与卢比奥更强硬的态度一致。
“Rubio and the president are working hand in glove on this,” and the two of them “were really running this thing,” said one individual close to the Trump administration who has known Rubio for many years.
一位与特朗普政府关系密切、认识卢比奥多年的人士表示：“卢比奥与总统在这方面正携手合作”，他们两人“确实在主导这件事”。
During a news conference on Saturday, Rubio implied that Cuba could face similar U.S. military action. “If I lived in Havana, and I was in the government, I’d be concerned, at least a little bit,” he said in response to a reporter’s question.
在周六的新闻发布会上，鲁比奥暗示古巴也可能面临类似的美国军事行动。"如果我住在哈瓦那，并且我在政府里，我会担心的，至少有一点，"他在回答记者提问时说。
Though former officials and analysts said they wouldn’t expect imminent military action against Cuba, it was likely that economic pressure would increase with Maduro removed from Venezuela.
尽管前官员和分析人士表示，他们预计不会对古巴采取迫在眉睫的军事行动，但随着马杜罗被逐出委内瑞拉，经济压力很可能会增加。
“I presume that one of the first demands that we would have as the United States with whoever is running things in Venezuela is that any support for Cuba will stop on the theory that that will then destabilize that regime and lead to a better outcome,” said Kevin Whitaker, who served as U.S. ambassador to Colombia during the first Trump administration.
曾在特朗普第一任政府期间担任美国驻哥伦比亚大使的凯文·惠特克表示："我猜测，无论谁在委内瑞拉掌权，我们美国提出的首要要求之一就是停止对古巴的任何支持，理由是这将破坏该政权稳定，并带来更好的结果。"
Exactly who is running things in Venezuela now is uncertain. Some Latin America experts said that the United States was probably underestimating the challenge of governing Venezuela with a small U.S. footprint.
目前尚不确定谁在委内瑞拉掌管大局。一些拉丁美洲专家表示，美国或许低估了在驻军不多的情况下治理委内瑞拉的挑战。
“Credible estimates of the number of boots on the ground required range from tens of thousands to well into the hundreds of thousands,” said Adam Isacson, a scholar at the Washington Office on Latin America. “In Panama in 1989, the occupying force was 27,000, and Venezuela is 12 times the size and 6.5 times the population — with a much broader array of armed and criminal groups.”
"关于需要派往现场的兵力，可信的估计范围从数万到数十万不等，"华盛顿拉丁美洲办公室学者亚当·艾萨克森表示。"1989 年巴拿马占领军的规模为 2.7 万人，而委内瑞拉的国土面积是其 12 倍，人口是其 6.5 倍——并且拥有更广泛的武装和犯罪组织。"
“So it is reasonable to expect the 15,000 troops currently deployed in the region to multiply by a factor of well over five, at the most conservative estimate,” Isacson added.
"因此，我们可以合理预期，目前部署在该地区的 1.5 万部队至少会增加到五倍以上，这是最保守的估计，"艾萨克森补充道。
By leaving Maduro’s vice president, Rodríguez, in place, the Trump administration may be trying to avoid a situation like in Iraq, where the government and military was almost completely purged, because that was a “catastrophe,” said Whitaker.
惠特克指出，通过让马杜罗的副总统罗德里格斯留任，特朗普政府可能试图避免类似伊拉克的情况，即政府与军队几乎被完全清洗，因为那是一场'灾难'。"
A former Senate staffer who remains in touch with Rubio said that they did not think U.S. officials would be performing a formal occupation like Paul Bremer and the Coalition Provisional Authority had done in Iraq.
一位与卢比奥保持联系的参议院前职员表示，他们不认为美国官员会像保罗·布雷默和联盟临时管理当局在伊拉克所做的那样进行正式占领。
“We’re going to tell them: ‘Hey, this is what you have to do in order for there not to be another strike,’” said the former staffer. “That’s what [Trump] sees as running the country.”
前白宫工作人员称："我们会告诉他们，'嘿，你们必须这样做，否则就会面临又一轮打击。'"他说："这就是（特朗普）的治国之道。"
John Feeley, a former senior State Department official and ambassador to Panama who worked on Latin America for decades, said it appears the administration is hoping initially to exercise influence over Venezuela through Rodríguez, whom he described as an “ideological communist” who was at “the heart of chavismo.”
曾在拉美工作数十载的美国国务院前高官、前驻巴拿马大使约翰·菲力称，似乎这届美国政府最初希望借助罗德里格斯对委内瑞拉施加影响。他将罗德里格斯形容为一名"意识形态gcd人"，是"查韦斯主义的核心"。
So far, Feeley said if Rodríguez is engaging behind the scenes, “she’s negotiating with Trump to save her skin.” And it’s unclear to what extent she can sway the rest of the military and political leadership.
菲力表示，到目前为止，如果罗德里格斯在幕后有行动，"那她就是在与特朗普谈判以求自保"。而且，尚不清楚她能在多大程度上影响其他军方领导人和政治领袖。
“The Trump administration’s hope is that after witnessing the events of today, all of those Venezuelan military leaders will be too scared to do anything other than follow Delcy’s orders,” he said. “But without boots on the ground, this is just noise.”
他说："特朗普政府希望，在目睹今天的事件后，所有委内瑞拉军方领导人都被吓坏了，除了听从德尔茜的命令外，不敢做任何事情。"他说："但是，不派地面部队，这一切都只是虚张声势而已。"
Feeley said he’s been stunned by “the precision and professionalism” of what the public has been told about the military operation in Venezuela. But, he said, that “stands in stark contrast to the uncertainty and lack of clarity that we heard from the president and Secretary Rubio about the future of how Venezuela is going to be run.”
菲力表示，他对公众获知的委内瑞拉军事行动的"精准和专业性"感到震惊。但他同时指出，"这与我们从总统和鲁比奥部长那里听到的关于委内瑞拉未来如何运行的不确定性和不清晰形成了鲜明对比。"
评论翻译
mac4969
LOL I bet MAGA will be so happy seeing taxpayers money paying for nation building in Venezuela
哈哈，我敢打赌， MAGA（让美国再次伟大）们看到纳税人的钱用于委内瑞拉的国家重建会开心得不得了
FantasticBicycle37
the entire republican apparatus is designed to protect pedophiles from prosecution, so they are glad to be going along with this Epstein distraction
整个共和党的运作机制就是为了保护恋童癖者免受起诉，所以他们当然乐意用爱泼斯坦事件来转移公众视线
Crommach
Okay, we really need to stop using the "Epstein distraction" line because it's frankly distracting us from what's happening. This Venezuela bullshit is another box ticked off the Project 2025 checklist, and the Trump administration is clearly following that frxwork. It's not just a distraction from the Epstein files and it's not just some random event happening in a vacuum. They're taking clear steps in a plan (which they published before the election!) to move the country in a far right, authoritarian direction. It's frankly worse than just being a distraction. If anything, they're using the public's justified anger about the Epstein coverup as a kind of distraction.
好吧，我们真的该停止使用"爱泼斯坦转移视线"这种说法了，因为这实际上正让我们忽视真正发生的事。委内瑞拉这场闹剧是《2025 计划》清单上又一个已勾选的项目，特朗普政府显然在遵循这个框架行事。这不仅是爱泼斯坦档案的烟雾弹，更非孤立发生的偶然事件。他们正按照（大选前就公开发布的！）计划采取明确措施，将国家推向极右威权主义方向。坦白说这比单纯转移视线更恶劣。若要说有什么作用，他们是在利用公众对爱泼斯坦案被掩盖的正当愤怒作为障眼法。
rat_penis
They'll be told that Venezuelan oil will be paying for all of it, and they will believe it.
他们会被告知委内瑞拉的石油将为此买单，而他们会相信这套说辞。
justherefor23andme
They actually are. Go see the millenial republican account on reddit.
他们确实如此。去看看 Reddit 上的千禧一代共和党账户就知道了。
They love protecting toughness.
他们热衷于保护强硬形象。
Unchosenone7
They don’t care what happens as long as it has (R) attached to it.
只要挂上（R）党标签，他们才不在乎会发生什么。
tryagainlater63
Nah, oil profits will cover it, just like Iraq.
得了吧，石油利润会买单的，伊拉克不就这么过来的。
goro-n
The r /Conservative subreddit is lapping up the military action in Venezuela, they can’t get enough of it. What happened to “ending the forever wars?”
Subreddit 论坛版块 r /Conservative 对委内瑞拉的军事行动津津乐道，他们对此乐此不疲。"结束永久战争"的口号去哪儿了？
tmac4969
Makes them feel manly
这让他们感觉更有男子气概
FantasticBicycle37
Viceroy of protecting trump from being called a pedophile by going along with this charade
这位总督的职责就是配合这场闹剧，保护特朗普不被称作恋童癖
TintedApostle
We have Czars and Viceroys in the US at this point might as make Trump Caesar.
如今美国既有了沙皇又有了总督，不如直接让特朗普当凯撒算了
SweetButNotInnocent2
viceroy? more like loud commentator with zero accountability to the people actually living through it.
总督？不如说是个高声评论员，对真正经历这一切的人民不负任何责任。
Mr_Magoo1969
It’s hard to imagine that Little Marco was once considered a serious person.
很难想象，小马可曾经被认为是个严肃人物。
UltraviolentLemur
Honestly, send him down there. I'm certain they'll be super hospitable. /s
说真的，送他去那里吧。我确信他们会超级热情好客的。/讽刺
TintedApostle
Listen to another more competent Viceroy on how this will turn out...
听听另一位更有能力的总督如何看待这个结局……
He believed his mission was difficult, finding Indian politics more challenging than naval command, and felt the need to hasten Britain's exit due to escalating violence, leading to the quick partition.
他认为自己的使命艰巨，发现印度政治比海军指挥更为棘手，并因暴力升级感到需要加速英国的撤离，这导致迅速的分治。
LOHare
Mountbatten was hardly competent. He failed upward his entire career due to his aristocratic family.
蒙巴顿毫无能力。由于他贵族家庭的背景，他在整个职业生涯中屡屡失败却步步高升。
TintedApostle
And still more competent than Trump. He actually started in lower officer ranks and saw action. He was head of Combined Operations for Churchill during WII.
而且依然比川普更加称职。他确实是从基层军官做起，亲身经历过战斗。二战期间，他曾担任丘吉尔的联合行动负责人。
No_Celery_5373
This is all really weird to read considering that it isn't actually done yet
考虑到这实际上还未完成，读到这些内容真让人感到相当奇怪。
Capturing Maduro is a little different from "do we actually have control of Venezuela"
抓捕马杜罗与"我们是否真正掌控着委内瑞拉"是两码事
And the answer to that is no, unless the next move is to put a lot of boots on the ground.
答案显然是否定的，除非下一步行动是派遣大量地面部队
TintedApostle
See to MAGA and republicans the act of capture is the same as resolving the entire problem for the next 10 years. The moment passes, but you will hear about it for a decade while the country sucks up more and more tax payer dollars.
对 MAGA 和共和党而言，抓捕行动等同于一劳永逸地解决未来十年的所有问题。时机转瞬即逝，但在未来十年间，当国家吞噬越来越多的纳税人税款时，你仍会听闻此事。
Eventually after the deficit grows and their friends get rich they will drop the corpse on everyone and move on.
最终，在赤字膨胀、他们的朋友致富之后，他们会把烂摊子扔给所有人，然后继续前行。
Orphanhorns
They are so fucking far ahead of themselves, I don’t understand why we’re acting as if Rubio is standing in Caracas seizing power right now.
他们的想法超前到荒谬，我不明白为什么我们要表现得好像卢比奥此刻正站在加拉加斯夺权一样。
TintedApostle
See Iraq.
参见伊拉克。
Tattered_Reason
Right people are reacting as if the US has taken control of Venezuela. The kidnapped Maduro but the regime remains intact and his VP is now running things. Maybe she will prove to be more compliant to US demands or maybe not. But the US is not occupying the country and does not control so much as a square foot of it's territory.
现在有些人的反应就好像美国已经掌控了委内瑞拉似的。他们绑架了马杜罗，但政权依然稳固，现在由副总统掌权。也许她会更顺从美国的要求，也许不会。然而美国并没有占领这个国家，甚至连一尺的领土都控制不了。
whatproblems
but we captured the king isn’t that gg?
但我们抓住了国王，这不是就结束了吗？
ENORMOUS_HORSECOCK
Remember in The Green Mile they gave Percy a little authority?
还记得《绿里奇迹》里他们给了珀西点小权吗？
Orphanhorns
Is Rubio on the ground with troops in Venezuela? No he is not, he is just as much in control of Venezuela as Maduro is right now.
卢比奥是否与驻委内瑞拉部队一同在当地？不，他并未亲临，眼下他掌控委内瑞拉的程度与马杜罗相当。
TracePoland
I’d argue Maduro is more in control given he has 220k-strong armed Bolivarian militias on the ground.
要我说，考虑到马杜罗在当地拥有 22 万人的玻利瓦尔武装民兵力量，他对局势的掌控力恐怕更胜一筹。
Orphanhorns
Good point!
说得好！
MarkAndRemember
Sancho Rubio
桑乔·鲁比奥
Important_Cut1915
No governor
不该用governor（总督）吗？
Spokraket
The US oligarchs want their own country maybe Venezuela is the country.
美国寡头们想要拥有自己的国家，或许委内瑞拉正是这样的国度。
Titan3692
What a dumbass
真是个白痴
shinnyaxolotl
Trump wants to get rid of Rubio
特朗普想要摆脱卢比奥
goro-n
I called it, Marco Rubio, King of Venezuela. This is what he’s wanted all along from Trump I onwards
我早就料到了，马可·鲁比奥，委内瑞拉之王。这正是他从特朗普时期以来一直梦寐以求的角色。
progdaddy
You break it you bought it.
摔坏了就得买下。
fumphdik
So the guy who has the most to gain from toppling them is now in charge of them. There’s another obvious corruption charge that will be pardoned in 3 years.
那个最想推翻他们的人，现在反而负责掌管他们。再过三年，又一条明显的腐败指控将会得到赦免。
LOL I bet MAGA will be so happy seeing taxpayers money paying for nation building in Venezuela
哈哈，我敢打赌， MAGA（让美国再次伟大）们看到纳税人的钱用于委内瑞拉的国家重建会开心得不得了
FantasticBicycle37
the entire republican apparatus is designed to protect pedophiles from prosecution, so they are glad to be going along with this Epstein distraction
整个共和党的运作机制就是为了保护恋童癖者免受起诉，所以他们当然乐意用爱泼斯坦事件来转移公众视线
Crommach
Okay, we really need to stop using the "Epstein distraction" line because it's frankly distracting us from what's happening. This Venezuela bullshit is another box ticked off the Project 2025 checklist, and the Trump administration is clearly following that frxwork. It's not just a distraction from the Epstein files and it's not just some random event happening in a vacuum. They're taking clear steps in a plan (which they published before the election!) to move the country in a far right, authoritarian direction. It's frankly worse than just being a distraction. If anything, they're using the public's justified anger about the Epstein coverup as a kind of distraction.
好吧，我们真的该停止使用"爱泼斯坦转移视线"这种说法了，因为这实际上正让我们忽视真正发生的事。委内瑞拉这场闹剧是《2025 计划》清单上又一个已勾选的项目，特朗普政府显然在遵循这个框架行事。这不仅是爱泼斯坦档案的烟雾弹，更非孤立发生的偶然事件。他们正按照（大选前就公开发布的！）计划采取明确措施，将国家推向极右威权主义方向。坦白说这比单纯转移视线更恶劣。若要说有什么作用，他们是在利用公众对爱泼斯坦案被掩盖的正当愤怒作为障眼法。
rat_penis
They'll be told that Venezuelan oil will be paying for all of it, and they will believe it.
他们会被告知委内瑞拉的石油将为此买单，而他们会相信这套说辞。
justherefor23andme
They actually are. Go see the millenial republican account on reddit.
他们确实如此。去看看 Reddit 上的千禧一代共和党账户就知道了。
They love protecting toughness.
他们热衷于保护强硬形象。
Unchosenone7
They don’t care what happens as long as it has (R) attached to it.
只要挂上（R）党标签，他们才不在乎会发生什么。
tryagainlater63
Nah, oil profits will cover it, just like Iraq.
得了吧，石油利润会买单的，伊拉克不就这么过来的。
goro-n
The r /Conservative subreddit is lapping up the military action in Venezuela, they can’t get enough of it. What happened to “ending the forever wars?”
Subreddit 论坛版块 r /Conservative 对委内瑞拉的军事行动津津乐道，他们对此乐此不疲。"结束永久战争"的口号去哪儿了？
tmac4969
Makes them feel manly
这让他们感觉更有男子气概
FantasticBicycle37
Viceroy of protecting trump from being called a pedophile by going along with this charade
这位总督的职责就是配合这场闹剧，保护特朗普不被称作恋童癖
TintedApostle
We have Czars and Viceroys in the US at this point might as make Trump Caesar.
如今美国既有了沙皇又有了总督，不如直接让特朗普当凯撒算了
SweetButNotInnocent2
viceroy? more like loud commentator with zero accountability to the people actually living through it.
总督？不如说是个高声评论员，对真正经历这一切的人民不负任何责任。
Mr_Magoo1969
It’s hard to imagine that Little Marco was once considered a serious person.
很难想象，小马可曾经被认为是个严肃人物。
UltraviolentLemur
Honestly, send him down there. I'm certain they'll be super hospitable. /s
说真的，送他去那里吧。我确信他们会超级热情好客的。/讽刺
TintedApostle
Listen to another more competent Viceroy on how this will turn out...
听听另一位更有能力的总督如何看待这个结局……
He believed his mission was difficult, finding Indian politics more challenging than naval command, and felt the need to hasten Britain's exit due to escalating violence, leading to the quick partition.
他认为自己的使命艰巨，发现印度政治比海军指挥更为棘手，并因暴力升级感到需要加速英国的撤离，这导致迅速的分治。
LOHare
Mountbatten was hardly competent. He failed upward his entire career due to his aristocratic family.
蒙巴顿毫无能力。由于他贵族家庭的背景，他在整个职业生涯中屡屡失败却步步高升。
TintedApostle
And still more competent than Trump. He actually started in lower officer ranks and saw action. He was head of Combined Operations for Churchill during WII.
而且依然比川普更加称职。他确实是从基层军官做起，亲身经历过战斗。二战期间，他曾担任丘吉尔的联合行动负责人。
No_Celery_5373
This is all really weird to read considering that it isn't actually done yet
考虑到这实际上还未完成，读到这些内容真让人感到相当奇怪。
Capturing Maduro is a little different from "do we actually have control of Venezuela"
抓捕马杜罗与"我们是否真正掌控着委内瑞拉"是两码事
And the answer to that is no, unless the next move is to put a lot of boots on the ground.
答案显然是否定的，除非下一步行动是派遣大量地面部队
TintedApostle
See to MAGA and republicans the act of capture is the same as resolving the entire problem for the next 10 years. The moment passes, but you will hear about it for a decade while the country sucks up more and more tax payer dollars.
对 MAGA 和共和党而言，抓捕行动等同于一劳永逸地解决未来十年的所有问题。时机转瞬即逝，但在未来十年间，当国家吞噬越来越多的纳税人税款时，你仍会听闻此事。
Eventually after the deficit grows and their friends get rich they will drop the corpse on everyone and move on.
最终，在赤字膨胀、他们的朋友致富之后，他们会把烂摊子扔给所有人，然后继续前行。
Orphanhorns
They are so fucking far ahead of themselves, I don’t understand why we’re acting as if Rubio is standing in Caracas seizing power right now.
他们的想法超前到荒谬，我不明白为什么我们要表现得好像卢比奥此刻正站在加拉加斯夺权一样。
TintedApostle
See Iraq.
参见伊拉克。
Tattered_Reason
Right people are reacting as if the US has taken control of Venezuela. The kidnapped Maduro but the regime remains intact and his VP is now running things. Maybe she will prove to be more compliant to US demands or maybe not. But the US is not occupying the country and does not control so much as a square foot of it's territory.
现在有些人的反应就好像美国已经掌控了委内瑞拉似的。他们绑架了马杜罗，但政权依然稳固，现在由副总统掌权。也许她会更顺从美国的要求，也许不会。然而美国并没有占领这个国家，甚至连一尺的领土都控制不了。
whatproblems
but we captured the king isn’t that gg?
但我们抓住了国王，这不是就结束了吗？
ENORMOUS_HORSECOCK
Remember in The Green Mile they gave Percy a little authority?
还记得《绿里奇迹》里他们给了珀西点小权吗？
Orphanhorns
Is Rubio on the ground with troops in Venezuela? No he is not, he is just as much in control of Venezuela as Maduro is right now.
卢比奥是否与驻委内瑞拉部队一同在当地？不，他并未亲临，眼下他掌控委内瑞拉的程度与马杜罗相当。
TracePoland
I’d argue Maduro is more in control given he has 220k-strong armed Bolivarian militias on the ground.
要我说，考虑到马杜罗在当地拥有 22 万人的玻利瓦尔武装民兵力量，他对局势的掌控力恐怕更胜一筹。
Orphanhorns
Good point!
说得好！
MarkAndRemember
Sancho Rubio
桑乔·鲁比奥
Important_Cut1915
No governor
不该用governor（总督）吗？
Spokraket
The US oligarchs want their own country maybe Venezuela is the country.
美国寡头们想要拥有自己的国家，或许委内瑞拉正是这样的国度。
Titan3692
What a dumbass
真是个白痴
shinnyaxolotl
Trump wants to get rid of Rubio
特朗普想要摆脱卢比奥
goro-n
I called it, Marco Rubio, King of Venezuela. This is what he’s wanted all along from Trump I onwards
我早就料到了，马可·鲁比奥，委内瑞拉之王。这正是他从特朗普时期以来一直梦寐以求的角色。
progdaddy
You break it you bought it.
摔坏了就得买下。
fumphdik
So the guy who has the most to gain from toppling them is now in charge of them. There’s another obvious corruption charge that will be pardoned in 3 years.
那个最想推翻他们的人，现在反而负责掌管他们。再过三年，又一条明显的腐败指控将会得到赦免。
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