地方邦资金短缺威胁着印度两位数增长目标
2021-02-23 wangqa 15412
正文翻译
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan to boost capital expenditure to help India regain the fastest-growing major economy title risks being derailed by the nation’s cash-strapped states, which are cutting back on such spending.

印度总理莫迪(Narendra Modi)制定了一个计划,旨在增加资本支出,以帮助印度重获增长最快主要经济体的头衔,因资金短缺,印度各邦纷纷削减此类支出,该计划有脱轨风险。

The nation’s 28 states, which account for about 60% of total government expenditure on infrastructure and asset creation, are hamstrung by declining tax revenue and the cost of fighting the Covid-19 pandemic. Also, unlike the federal government, provinces don’t have the flexibility to borrow more to maintain spending as that would lead to a fiscal deficit blowout.

印度28邦的基础设施支出和资产创造支出约占政府总支出的60%,这些邦被税收下降和抗疫成本的困扰。此外,与中央政府不同,各地方邦政府没有足够的灵活性来借入更多的资金来维持支出,因为这将导致财政赤字激增。

“While central expenditure growth has picked up significantly over the last three months, states continue to compress expenditure to maintain fiscal balance,” said Samiran Chakraborty, an economist at Citigroup Inc. “This may dampen the overall growth.”

花旗集团(Citigroup Inc .)经济学家萨米兰查克拉博蒂(Samiran Chakraborty)表示:“虽然过去三个月里,中央政府支出增长明显加快,但各地方邦却持续压缩支出,以保障财政平衡。这将会抑制印度经济整体增长。"


Modi’s government this month proposed boosting capital expenditure by 26% to 5.54 trillion rupees ($76 billion) next fiscal year starting April, hoping the multiplier effect of such spending will result in a world-beating double-digit expansion for the economy that’s headed for its biggest contraction this year.

莫迪政府本月提议,从4月开始的下一个财政年中财政支出将增加26%,增加至5.54万亿卢比(约合760亿美元),在本财年印度经济出现有史以来最大萎缩的情况下,印度政府希望该支出形成乘数效应使印度经济在出现创纪录的两位数的增长。

The Reserve Bank of India estimates that every one rupee spent by the federal government will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by 3.14 rupees, while similar spending by states will boost output by 2 rupees. But states aren’t spending enough, according to an analysis by QuantEco Research economist Yuvika Singhal.

印度储备银行(Reserve Bank of India)估计,印度中央政府每支出1卢比,国内生产总值(GDP)将增加3.14卢比,而各邦政府每支出1卢比,将会增加2卢比的产出。但根据QuantEco研究院经济学家辛哈尔的分析,各州的支出还远远不够。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Capital expenditure of 17 key states contracted 23.5% in the nine months to December from a year ago, possibly leading to a shortfall of as much as 1.8 trillion rupees in the current year’s spending aim, Singhal said.

辛哈尔说,去年后9个月里,17个主要邦的财政支出较上年同期收缩了23.5%,这使得今年的财政支出目标缺口高达1.8万亿卢比。

That gap can knock off 3.6 trillion rupees from economic output. Whereas, additional spending by the federal government in the current year would add just 848 billion rupees despite a higher multiplier effect.

这一缺口可能导致印度经济产出减少3.6万亿卢比。尽管乘数效应更高,今年联邦政府的额外支出却只会增加8480亿卢比。

A cut by states may “dampen” some of the impact of the federal stimulus measures and “act as a drag on revival of investment and overall growth,” the RBI said in a report in December.

12月印度央行的一份报告显示,各州的支出削减将会“削弱”联邦刺激措施,并“拖累投资复苏和经济整体增长”。

评论翻译
Varadharajan Balasubramanian
lack of resources is due to a parallel economy and 90% of the Indians not paying Tax on their income. Add to this the income from rich farmers funding protest by poor farmers( or they really poor?). There are states that have more capital income but their contribution is less towards centre. Our growth is stalled because of many factors not necessarily capital.

资金匮乏是由于并行经济和90%的印度人不为他们的收入纳税。此外很多富民的还有闲钱来资助穷 苦农民的抗议活动(或者说他们真的很穷?).有些邦有更多的收入,但他们对中央的贡献较少。我们的增长停滞是因为多种因素,不只是因为资金匮乏。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


SURENDER SINGH NEGI
MODI HAS TO DO NOTHING ABOUT ECONOMY, HE WANT ONLY BJP GOVT. IN EVERY AND EACH STATE, REST WORK IS OF MEDIA, CALLED GODI MEDIA, 50% DESTROYED ECONOMY BY MODI AND 50% BY MEDIA,DON'T THINK GROWTH, PANDAMIC STARTS IN JANUARY OR MARCH 2020, WHAT BEFORE THAT WAS THAT TIME GROWTH SKY HIGH? TILL MODI IN PM POST,NOTHING WILL HAPPENS BECAUSE IN ELECTION COMMISSION OF INDIA CHEATED INDIAN PUBLIC AGAINST MODI, BECAUSE IN MODI KAHAR, ALL GUNDA AND RAPIST,CHEATERS ARE ENTERED IN MODI GOVT.

莫迪没有为印度经济做任何事情,他只关心人民党政府。在每个地方,每一个邦,剩下的都是都是媒体宣传,称作GODI的媒体,50%的经济被莫迪摧毁,50%经济被媒体摧毁,不要考虑经济,新冠大流行始于2020年1月或3月,在那之前经济增长很高吗?在莫迪卸任总理之前,什么事情都不会发生,因为在印度选举委员会中,莫迪欺骗了公众,因为在莫迪,所有的暴徒和强奸犯、骗子都进入了莫迪政府。

Schandan
Such stories come up occasionally on media to ignite a debate on social media in last couple of years. Unusual price escalation of essential items like petro products compelled people to spend and overall income growth is at a low ebb. Fiscal deficit pulls the string with an alarming sign and states are not getting the revenue share though vague reasons are there. Govt. tall claims contradicts the ground reliability. How one can expect a fast growing economy is such circumstances? Perhaps it's easier to write with ifs & buts than make it happen truly.

在过去的几年里,这样的故事偶尔会出现在媒体上,并在社交媒体上引发一场争论。石油产品等必需品的价格异常上涨,迫使人们支出增加,整体收入增长却处于低谷。财政赤字是一个令人担忧的信号,各州并没有得到财政收入的份额,尽管有模糊的原因。政府的高要求与基础的可靠性相矛盾。在这种情况下,人们怎么能指望经济快速增长呢?也行用如果和但是来描写比让它真正发生要容易的多。

Deviprasad Nayak
India is not fastest growing country,there are too many backward countries like India are fastest growing,still our media is not comparing with them deliberately,they compare India with developed countries.Media and our leaders lacking basic knowledge of economics.All developed countries are growing slowly that is natural at high standard of living.India is one among the top 50 backward or poor countries in the world.India ranked 145 out of 183 countries in the world in per capita income

印度不是增长最快的国家,有太多像印度这样的落后国家经济增长速度都非常快,但我们的媒体并没有刻意与这些国家进行比较,他们只会将印度的经济增长与发达国家比较。媒体和我们的领导人缺乏基本的经济学知识。所有发达国家经济增长缓慢,这是生活水平高的自然现象。印度是世界最落后或最贫困的50个国家之一。在全球183个国家中印度的人均收入只排名145位。

The Other Angle
The idea is to directly create demand. This is not a supply side problem but a demand side issue. Either people do not have money, or don't want to spend what they have. How will the economy grow? There will be very few people who will benefit from government spending, unless it is on MNREGA and the benefits reach the poor. It is a lost cause. Taxes have to be reduced and simplified, both direct and indirect tax. This the government will never do.

其办法是创造需求。这不是供给方面的问题,而是需求方面的问题。人们要么没钱,要么不想花钱。经济将如何增长?只有极少数人能从政府支出中受益,除非政府支出花在《国家农村就业担保法案》上,而且受益对象是穷人。这是一个注定失败的事业。税收必须减少和简化,包括直接税和间接税。但是政府永远不会这么做。

Prakash Raghunathan
I don't think Bloomberg is right.The Economy Will rebound back.The Corporate Earnings foe Q3 are much to the Expectation.The Government should spend on infrastructure Development.The PLI scheme of the Government is Welcome Move.The MSME should be provided loans and incentives and should help them in Exporting their products .

我不赞同彭博社。印度经济最终会反弹。第三季度的公司收益与预期相差甚远。政府应该在基础设施建设上增加投资。政府的计划是值得欢迎的。应该向中小微企业提供贷款和激励措施,并帮助其产品出口。

Ashish Bhatt
Be ready for another tax burden by government to recover loses .. middle class people are the easiest target who do not have a voice, unfortunately!

做好准备迎接印度政府为弥补损失增加的税收吧..不幸的是,中产阶级最没有发言权!

Deviprasad Nayak
Karnataka became a region for loot for Modi,by looting karnataka he is developing Gujarath and north India.Modi should focus Economics and not politics while developing infrastructure.He is not allowing Metro construction to IT corridor where 10 lakh IT professionals are working,he is also not allowing metro to third busiest Airport in India(Bengaluru).He approved metro to 9 cities in UP.Chaiwalas,dudwalas,paanwalas are more important than IT professionals for Modi.Centre contribute 50 % for Metro in north India where as centre contribute mere 15% for Bengaluru Metro,still Modi is not approving metro extension to IT corridor.Many stations were cancelled to reduce cost and companies need to construct stations if they want stop near their office.This restriction is only imposed on bengaluru.There is no common policy for Metro development,only 6 km metro line developed in bengaluru in last 8 years

卡纳塔克邦成为莫迪掠夺的地区,通过掠夺卡纳塔克邦,发展古吉拉特邦和印度北部。莫迪在发展基础设施时应该关注经济,而不是政治。他不允许地铁建设到有100万IT专业人士的信息技术走廊,也不允许地铁建设到印度第三繁忙的机场(班加罗尔)。但他却批准北方的9个城市修地铁。对莫迪来说,Chaiwalas、dudwalas、paanwalas比IT专业人士更重要。在印度北部,中央政府对地铁建设的贡献率为50 %,而在班加罗尔,中央政府的贡献率仅为15%,但莫迪始终不批准地铁延伸至信息技术走廊。因此,(班加罗尔)为降低成本许多车站被取消,如果公司想在办公室附近停车,则需要建造车站。这一限制被强加给班加罗尔。地铁的建设没有统一的政策,在过去8年中,班加罗尔仅建设了6公里的地铁。

The Other Angle
You are wrong... it is the salaried middle class that are the easiest target!!!

你错了...有薪水的中产阶级是最容易掠夺的目标!!!

Jitendra Desai
Dear Bloomberg tell us when you wrote something positive about India and Indian economy.Your figures are up to December 20.Wait till April 21 to get the final figures.And yes see you in April 2023 to read your doomsday predictions dear Bloomberg

亲爱的彭博社,请告诉我们你什么时候能写了一些关于印度和印度经济的积极的东西。你的经济数据截止到12月20日。等到4月21号才能拿到最终数据。亲爱的彭博社,2023年4月再见,到时候再看看你对印度经济末日的预测是否正确。

Prakash Ramiah
Pl read as split or bifurcated into 5 zones instead of penalised..

Pl读取为分裂或分叉成5个区域,而不是处罚..

Hemant Pisat
Our countrymen have a notion that only Income Tax generates revenues for the state, which actually a less than 9% contribution. Whereas other taxes, cesses and royalties form the majority part. Our society has always been polarised as haves and have nots, obviously a gap in Income Tax collections. And this majority part is a contentious issue where Center controls and states follows the orders.

我们的同胞有一个观点,即只有所得税为政府创造财政收入,实际上所得税贡献不到9%。而其他税收,比如地方税和版税构成了大部分。我们的社会一直是贫富两极分化的,不言而喻所得税征收也存在差距。无论中央是否控制各邦,各邦是否遵守命令,都存在很大争议

Deviprasad Nayak
You are speaking like a scholar,please educate yourself first.Income tax is paid to the central Govt and not to the state Govts

你说话像个学者,但是你需要再学习一下。所得税支付给中央政府,而不是邦政府

Hemant Pisat
Dear Deviprasad ji, here state in the first line means National Government. Thanks.

亲爱的Deviprasad姬,第一行的“state”就是指国家政府。谢谢。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Vikram Aditya
It's very shameful to blame everything on MODI JI as Congress have ruled this country for last 60yrs without any goal on global stand and weak recognition of youth of the country and making them useless !! Atleast now it's some positive steps ate been taken let them even if not a growth story for the nation at least it will make the Nation "SELF RELIANCE" "It's positivity in the nation but not as Congress Only Commission/ Corrupts system / Scams & GOLATA!!

把一切都归咎于莫迪姬是非常可耻的,因为在过去60年里国大党统治着这个国家,在国际地位上却没有达成任何目标,也没有对这个国家的年轻人缺乏认知,使他们毫无用处!!至少现在莫迪政府已经采取了一些积极的措施,即使他们没有国家的经济增长,至少它会让国家“自力更生”,“他们为国家注入活力,但不是维国大党委员会/腐败系统/诈骗和黑手党家族!!

SHASHI RANJAN SINHA
Nice. At least now we have a government which is thinking and worried about growth. It is great to see that performance being measured in quantifiable numbers and not generic jargons.

很好。至少现在我们有了一个正在考虑和担心经济增长的政府。很高兴看到成绩是用可量化的数字来衡量,而不是用通用行话来糊弄人。

Samynarayana
This is unethical, immoral, dishonest , intellectually bannkrupt country. 1.5% people pay income tax. Rest 98.5 shout black money. 20%people work hard. 66% are parasites. Some states pay Rs.1.80 per capita tax whereas all BOMARU states hardly pay Rs.0.40 per cpaita tax. Yet states like TN hardly get Rs.0.40 per capita central funds whereas blood sucking states get Rs.1.80 per cpaita central funds. UNLESS MONKEY BATH MAN WORKS ON REMOVING THE 74 YEARS INJUSTICE SOON, THE COUNTRY WILL GET BALKANISED AND MANY HARDWORKING RICH PEOPLE WILL LEAVE iNDIA

这是一个没有道德标准、不道德、不诚实、智力低下的国家。1.5%的人缴纳所得税。剩下98.5%人因为逃税兴奋呼喊。20% 人努力工作。66%是寄生虫。一些邦人均纳税1.80卢比,而BOMARU诸邦(可能是比哈尔邦、奥里萨邦、曼尼普尔邦、拉贾斯坦邦、北方邦)的人几乎用不纳税,人均仅纳税0.40卢比。然而,那些多缴纳税款邦,比如泰米尔-纳德邦,很难获得人均0.40卢比的中央财政资金,而吸血州却可以获得人均1.80卢比的中央财政资金。如果那个像猴子一样沐浴男人最好尽快消除这种自74年以来的不公正待遇,否则这个国家将会分裂,很多勤劳的富人将会离开印度。

Nasir Ali Zaidi
Regaining the " fastest growing economy tag" in the shortest possible time is quite unrealistic but the present government is fond of setting lofty target. Central government may borrow, levy cess and surcharges which are not shared with states but states have no such liberty which forces them to cut down the which adversely affects the national goals. 60% is the contribution of states in GDP which will certainly be affected. Opposition ruled states will suffer more. Election bounadund WB and Tamil nadu where BJP is making strong pitch to win the election will benefit.

在短的时间内重获“增长最快的经济体头衔”非常不现实,但印度现政府喜欢设定崇高的目标。中央政府可以借款、征收税款及附加税,但这些税款和附加税不会与各邦共享,但各邦没有这种特权,迫使它们削减支出,这会对国家目标产生不利影响。各邦在GDP中的贡献是60%,(GDP)肯定会受到影响。反对派统治的邦将遭受更多痛苦。人民党正在努力争取赢得邦选举,西孟加拉邦和泰米尔纳德邦将从中受益。

Deviprasad Nayak
All poor countries in the world are fastest growing countries (because they are backward)like India.But our leaders never compare with them,they only compare with developed countries

世界上所有的穷国,比如印度,发展速度都非常快,因为他们落后。但是我们印度的领导人从不与他们比较(发展速度),他们只与发达国家比较(发展速度)。

Balbir Singh
Modi has destroyed the whole economy by his pro capitalist policy.

莫迪通过他亲资本家的政策摧毁了印度经济。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Madan R
This central govt doesn't inspire the states especially the opposition states since these states dont get their dues on time like GST share etc.
These states have to fend for themselves and so will cut back where ever possible.
instilling confidence in these states is an unknown skill set to our govt at the centre

印度中央政府并没有激励地方邦政府,尤其是反对党所在的邦,这些州没有得到按时得到他们的税收份额,比如消费税份额。
这些州不得不自谋生路,将尽可能削减开支。
向这些地方邦灌输信心,我们的中央政府好像没有这项技能技能。

Dew Drops
Criminalise welfare schemes and loan waivers to farmers.
If farmers can't pay back loans then their land should be sold to factory owners or constructors companies to recoup the loan amount.

将福利计划和对农民的贷款豁免定为犯罪。
如果农民不能偿还贷款,那么他们的土地就应该卖给工厂主或建筑公司,以收回贷款金额。

Nitin K
The states are not increasing expenditure on infrastructure & other sectors but are setting aside funds for welfare schemes & expanding welfare schemes that generate vote bank for political parties in power

各邦并没有为基础设施或者其他行业的增加支出,但却为福利计划留出了资金,并准备扩大福利计划,以为各邦执政党创造票仓

India First
Article planted to benefit bears....when the markets are moving at record highs after the unx budge.

造福空头的文章....在工会做出让步后,印度股市将创历史新高。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Sahaj Shetty
Mr. First let me tell you there are no bears left in the market matbal bears RIP .So now you can guess the Markeconomics if you have some experience in the market

First先生,我告诉你,股市上已经没有空头了,现在只要你有一些股市经验的话,你就可以猜出一些宏观经济学了

很赞 0
收藏