QA：为什么日本经济如此挣扎？
正文翻译
Why is the Japanese economy struggling so much?
为什么日本经济如此挣扎？
Why is the Japanese economy struggling so much?
为什么日本经济如此挣扎？
评论翻译
Geoffrey Widdison
Lived in Japan
Blunt and unvarnished answer? Here’s why:
Japan is old!
I mean, there are a million factors that go into economic growth in any given quarter, and those will come along and rise and fall and whatever, but Japan has an overwhelming factor that makes economic growth very difficult, and that’s the aging population.
Japan has the highest life expectancy in the world (the average person lives to 84 there) and one of the lowest fertility rates (less than 1.5 children per couple). They were one of the first countries in the world to have a below-replacement fertility rate (first hitting that point in 1959). And their current fertility is actually an improvement, fertility got as low as 1.3 a couple of decades back,
一言以蔽之：
日本老了！
我的意思是，在任何一个季度都有一百万个影响经济增长的因素，这些因素来来去去，起伏不定，但日本有一个压倒性的因素使经济增长变得非常困难，那就是人口老龄化。
日本是世界上预期寿命最高的国家（那里的人均寿命为 84 岁），也是生育率最低的国家之一（每对夫妇生育不到 1.5 个孩子）。他们是世界上首批生育率低于更替水平的国家之一（1959 年首次达到这个点）。他们目前的生育率实际上已经在提高了，几十年前生育率低至 1.3。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Lived in Japan
Blunt and unvarnished answer? Here’s why:
Japan is old!
I mean, there are a million factors that go into economic growth in any given quarter, and those will come along and rise and fall and whatever, but Japan has an overwhelming factor that makes economic growth very difficult, and that’s the aging population.
Japan has the highest life expectancy in the world (the average person lives to 84 there) and one of the lowest fertility rates (less than 1.5 children per couple). They were one of the first countries in the world to have a below-replacement fertility rate (first hitting that point in 1959). And their current fertility is actually an improvement, fertility got as low as 1.3 a couple of decades back,
一言以蔽之：
日本老了！
我的意思是，在任何一个季度都有一百万个影响经济增长的因素，这些因素来来去去，起伏不定，但日本有一个压倒性的因素使经济增长变得非常困难，那就是人口老龄化。
日本是世界上预期寿命最高的国家（那里的人均寿命为 84 岁），也是生育率最低的国家之一（每对夫妇生育不到 1.5 个孩子）。他们是世界上首批生育率低于更替水平的国家之一（1959 年首次达到这个点）。他们目前的生育率实际上已经在提高了，几十年前生育率低至 1.3。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
As a result of all of this, a third of the population of Japan is over the age of 60. Adult diapers are now outselling baby diapers in the country, which has never happened in any country in history. That means that the working age population is continually shrinking, while having to care for an ever-increasing population of retirees. Japan tends to resist allowing more immigrants in to bolster the workforce, so you have fewer and fewer workers trying to grow an economy with limited resources.
There’s a number, in demographics, known as the “dependency ratio”, which is the ratio between people of working age (15 to 65) to the people outside of that age range. That ratio obviously isn’t the sole factor in economic growth, but it’s a pretty robust predictor of whether a country is capable of it. And Japan’s ratio is bad and only getting worse.
由于这一切，日本三分之一的人口年龄在 60 岁以上。成人纸尿裤现在在该国的销量超过婴儿纸尿裤，这在历史上任何国家都从未发生过。这意味着适龄工作人口在不断减少，同时必须照顾不断增加的退休人口。日本倾向于拒绝让更多的移民进入以增加劳动力，因此可以在资源有限的情况下发展经济的工人越来越少。
在人口统计学中，有一个数字被称为“抚养比”，即工作年龄（15 至 65 岁）人口与该年龄段以外人口之间的比率。该比率显然不是经济增长的唯一因素，但它是一个国家是否有能力实现这一目标的有力预测指标。日本的比例很差，而且只会越来越差。
There’s a number, in demographics, known as the “dependency ratio”, which is the ratio between people of working age (15 to 65) to the people outside of that age range. That ratio obviously isn’t the sole factor in economic growth, but it’s a pretty robust predictor of whether a country is capable of it. And Japan’s ratio is bad and only getting worse.
由于这一切，日本三分之一的人口年龄在 60 岁以上。成人纸尿裤现在在该国的销量超过婴儿纸尿裤，这在历史上任何国家都从未发生过。这意味着适龄工作人口在不断减少，同时必须照顾不断增加的退休人口。日本倾向于拒绝让更多的移民进入以增加劳动力，因此可以在资源有限的情况下发展经济的工人越来越少。
在人口统计学中，有一个数字被称为“抚养比”，即工作年龄（15 至 65 岁）人口与该年龄段以外人口之间的比率。该比率显然不是经济增长的唯一因素，但它是一个国家是否有能力实现这一目标的有力预测指标。日本的比例很差，而且只会越来越差。
A Vasilev
Not only that they are not allowing Immigration, but the work/life balance is terrible, meaning that they bluntly put have less time to procreate
他们不仅不允许移民，而且工作和生活之间的平衡很糟糕，这意味着他们没有多少时间生育
Not only that they are not allowing Immigration, but the work/life balance is terrible, meaning that they bluntly put have less time to procreate
他们不仅不允许移民，而且工作和生活之间的平衡很糟糕，这意味着他们没有多少时间生育
Geoffrey Widdison
And it’s not just time to procreate, in terms of sex. That really doesn’t take a lot of time. But people are so busy that they lack the time and energy to form serious relationships in the first place. Chronic singleness is epidemic in Japan, more so than in most of the world.
And even when couples do get together, having enough time to sleep together isn’t the main problem, it’s that, in a modern, wealthy country with effective sex education, most couples don’t have children unless they plan to, and a lot of people in Japan don’t feel like they have the time, money or space to care for a baby. And if they do have one, they often aren’t okay with having a second.
It’s a big deal, because we have little experience, as a species, with any creature voluntarily ceasing to breed. Societies have diminished before due to wars, natural disasters, economic collapse, outside invasion, plagues, and so on. But there’s never before been a society that been chugging along, well-ordered and well-run, with all of their material needs met, just not having babies anymore. And that’s an exaggeration of what’s happening in the Japan, but it’s essentially what we’re seeing.
就性而言，这不仅仅是生育时间的问题。这方面真的不需要很多时间。但是人们太忙了，以至于他们缺乏时间和精力去建立认真的关系。在日本，长期单身非常流行，比世界上大多数国家都更流行。
即使情侣们在一起，有足够的时间睡在一起，也并不是主要问题，主要问题是，在一个拥有有效性教育的现代富裕国家，大多数情侣除非有计划，否则不会有孩子，而日本的很多人都觉得他们没有时间、金钱或空间来照顾孩子。而且，如果他们真的有了一个，他们往往不同意生第二个。
这是一个大问题，因为作为一个物种，我们缺乏应对一种生物自愿停止繁殖的经验。社会曾经因为战争、自然灾害、经济崩溃、外部入侵、瘟疫等原因而减少人口。但是，以前从来没有过一个社会一直在运转，秩序井然，运行良好，所有的物质需求都得到满足，却都不想再生孩子了的情况。这是对日本所发生的事情的夸大，但这基本上是我们看到的情况。
And it’s not just time to procreate, in terms of sex. That really doesn’t take a lot of time. But people are so busy that they lack the time and energy to form serious relationships in the first place. Chronic singleness is epidemic in Japan, more so than in most of the world.
And even when couples do get together, having enough time to sleep together isn’t the main problem, it’s that, in a modern, wealthy country with effective sex education, most couples don’t have children unless they plan to, and a lot of people in Japan don’t feel like they have the time, money or space to care for a baby. And if they do have one, they often aren’t okay with having a second.
It’s a big deal, because we have little experience, as a species, with any creature voluntarily ceasing to breed. Societies have diminished before due to wars, natural disasters, economic collapse, outside invasion, plagues, and so on. But there’s never before been a society that been chugging along, well-ordered and well-run, with all of their material needs met, just not having babies anymore. And that’s an exaggeration of what’s happening in the Japan, but it’s essentially what we’re seeing.
就性而言，这不仅仅是生育时间的问题。这方面真的不需要很多时间。但是人们太忙了，以至于他们缺乏时间和精力去建立认真的关系。在日本，长期单身非常流行，比世界上大多数国家都更流行。
即使情侣们在一起，有足够的时间睡在一起，也并不是主要问题，主要问题是，在一个拥有有效性教育的现代富裕国家，大多数情侣除非有计划，否则不会有孩子，而日本的很多人都觉得他们没有时间、金钱或空间来照顾孩子。而且，如果他们真的有了一个，他们往往不同意生第二个。
这是一个大问题，因为作为一个物种，我们缺乏应对一种生物自愿停止繁殖的经验。社会曾经因为战争、自然灾害、经济崩溃、外部入侵、瘟疫等原因而减少人口。但是，以前从来没有过一个社会一直在运转，秩序井然，运行良好，所有的物质需求都得到满足，却都不想再生孩子了的情况。这是对日本所发生的事情的夸大，但这基本上是我们看到的情况。
Luit Paran Baishya
Read about late Roman n Byzentine Empires, this issue is well documented…urbanized n rich societies; failing to procreate.
阅读一些有关晚期罗马和拜占庭帝国的文章，这个问题有据可查……城市化和富裕社会=生育停滞。
Read about late Roman n Byzentine Empires, this issue is well documented…urbanized n rich societies; failing to procreate.
阅读一些有关晚期罗马和拜占庭帝国的文章，这个问题有据可查……城市化和富裕社会=生育停滞。
Alexander Novikov
Not at all, birth rates declined only among the elites because of women acquiring an important role in society and having high death rates associated with childbirths, they did not want to subject themselves to too much risk, and had a say to avoid it. That clearly didn’t pertain to 99+% of population in the bottom where woman was little but a slave of her husband (or father, before she got married), so did not impact overall birth rates.
These empires fell due to climate change impacting crop yields, making maintenance of armies as large difficult due to lack of manpower due to lack of food (high death rates from famines rather than low birthrates), and migrations of hostile hordes from elsewhere, pushed out from there by even more severe climate change.
这完全是两回事，只有精英阶层的出生率下降，因为妇女在社会中可以扮演重要的角色，而且与分娩有关的死亡率很高，她们不想让自己承受太多的风险，并有发言权来避免这种风险。然而这种情况显然与底层 99% 以上的人口无关，在底层，妇女很权利很小，只是她丈夫（或父亲，在她结婚前）的奴隶，因此不会影响总体出生率。
这些帝国因气候变化影响农作物产量而衰落，由于缺乏食物（饥荒导致高死亡率而不是低出生率）导致人力不足，因此难以维持庞大的军队，以及还得面对敌对的、因为受到更严重的气候变化影响而从其他地方迁过来的部落。
Not at all, birth rates declined only among the elites because of women acquiring an important role in society and having high death rates associated with childbirths, they did not want to subject themselves to too much risk, and had a say to avoid it. That clearly didn’t pertain to 99+% of population in the bottom where woman was little but a slave of her husband (or father, before she got married), so did not impact overall birth rates.
These empires fell due to climate change impacting crop yields, making maintenance of armies as large difficult due to lack of manpower due to lack of food (high death rates from famines rather than low birthrates), and migrations of hostile hordes from elsewhere, pushed out from there by even more severe climate change.
这完全是两回事，只有精英阶层的出生率下降，因为妇女在社会中可以扮演重要的角色，而且与分娩有关的死亡率很高，她们不想让自己承受太多的风险，并有发言权来避免这种风险。然而这种情况显然与底层 99% 以上的人口无关，在底层，妇女很权利很小，只是她丈夫（或父亲，在她结婚前）的奴隶，因此不会影响总体出生率。
这些帝国因气候变化影响农作物产量而衰落，由于缺乏食物（饥荒导致高死亡率而不是低出生率）导致人力不足，因此难以维持庞大的军队，以及还得面对敌对的、因为受到更严重的气候变化影响而从其他地方迁过来的部落。
ames Ikpeze
The government of Japan should step in, To change their work culture to be more family friendly. That is the only way.
日本政府应该介入，改变他们的工作文化，使之更适合家庭。这是唯一的方法。
The government of Japan should step in, To change their work culture to be more family friendly. That is the only way.
日本政府应该介入，改变他们的工作文化，使之更适合家庭。这是唯一的方法。
Daniel Whose Favorite City is Kamakura, Kanagawa
Believe me, they’re trying—the problem is that the stuff they’ve tried isn’t really working.
They just have no clue what to do, either because they don’t really understand the problem, or simply aren’t willing to acknowledge and admit it.
相信我，他们正在努力--问题是，他们所尝试的东西并没有真正发挥作用。
他们不知道该怎么做，要么是因为他们没有真正理解这个问题，要么就是根本不愿意承认和接纳它。
Believe me, they’re trying—the problem is that the stuff they’ve tried isn’t really working.
They just have no clue what to do, either because they don’t really understand the problem, or simply aren’t willing to acknowledge and admit it.
相信我，他们正在努力--问题是，他们所尝试的东西并没有真正发挥作用。
他们不知道该怎么做，要么是因为他们没有真正理解这个问题，要么就是根本不愿意承认和接纳它。
Aaron Matthews
Lower fertility rates are probably just part of living in a developed country. Before the industrial revolution, fertility rates were higher but so were death rates. Another thing worth noting is that back then, children were an asset, not a liability. They helped their parents work on the farms and if one died from measles, at least you have the other four to watch over. As for aristocrats, having kids was a way to pass on your legacy.
Following the industrial revolution, the benefits of having many children went down as people moved away from the farms and towards big cities. Not only can’t children really help you with your work but you have to cover their expenses.
较低的生育率可能只是生活在发达国家的一部分。在工业革命之前，生育率较高，但死亡率也较高。另一件值得注意的事情是，在那个时候，孩子是一种资产，而不是一种负债。他们帮助他们的父母在农场工作，如果一个死于麻疹，至少你还有其他四个。对于贵族来说，生孩子是一种传宗接代的方式。
工业革命之后，随着人们从农场搬到大城市，多生孩子的好处逐渐减少。孩子们不仅不能帮助你完成工作，而且你还必须承担抚育他们的费用。
Lower fertility rates are probably just part of living in a developed country. Before the industrial revolution, fertility rates were higher but so were death rates. Another thing worth noting is that back then, children were an asset, not a liability. They helped their parents work on the farms and if one died from measles, at least you have the other four to watch over. As for aristocrats, having kids was a way to pass on your legacy.
Following the industrial revolution, the benefits of having many children went down as people moved away from the farms and towards big cities. Not only can’t children really help you with your work but you have to cover their expenses.
较低的生育率可能只是生活在发达国家的一部分。在工业革命之前，生育率较高，但死亡率也较高。另一件值得注意的事情是，在那个时候，孩子是一种资产，而不是一种负债。他们帮助他们的父母在农场工作，如果一个死于麻疹，至少你还有其他四个。对于贵族来说，生孩子是一种传宗接代的方式。
工业革命之后，随着人们从农场搬到大城市，多生孩子的好处逐渐减少。孩子们不仅不能帮助你完成工作，而且你还必须承担抚育他们的费用。
Ameer Acharya
Japan’s stance against large scale immigration is understandable to those who have lived there. The culture has many great strengths which drive it’s great product and service quality, cleanliness, safety, transportation efficiency, and the like. It’s part of what makes Japan special. Japan should be strategic in targeting individuals with abilities and capital to come into the country, and grow businesses. For such people, language requirements for entry could be relaxed, however, the intent should be for those individuals to learn the language and respect the culture.
日本反对大规模移民的立场对于那些在那里生活过的人来说是可以理解的。这种文化有许多伟大的优势，推动了它伟大的产品和服务质量、清洁、安全、运输效率等等。这是使日本与众不同的部分原因。日本应该战略性地瞄准有能力和资本的个人进入该国并发展业务。对于这些人，入境的语言要求可以放宽，但是，目标也应该是让这些人学习本国语言并尊重文化。
Japan’s stance against large scale immigration is understandable to those who have lived there. The culture has many great strengths which drive it’s great product and service quality, cleanliness, safety, transportation efficiency, and the like. It’s part of what makes Japan special. Japan should be strategic in targeting individuals with abilities and capital to come into the country, and grow businesses. For such people, language requirements for entry could be relaxed, however, the intent should be for those individuals to learn the language and respect the culture.
日本反对大规模移民的立场对于那些在那里生活过的人来说是可以理解的。这种文化有许多伟大的优势，推动了它伟大的产品和服务质量、清洁、安全、运输效率等等。这是使日本与众不同的部分原因。日本应该战略性地瞄准有能力和资本的个人进入该国并发展业务。对于这些人，入境的语言要求可以放宽，但是，目标也应该是让这些人学习本国语言并尊重文化。
Andrew S Clarke
Immigration creates more complex problems . Many societies are able to assimilate immigrants better and both individual and society benefit from that like USA but I don't think Japanese society is capable of that and not their fault . Japanese people like to preserve their homogeneity and culture .
移民会产生更复杂的问题。许多社会能够更好地同化移民，个人和社会都从中受益，比如美国，但我认为日本社会没有能力做到这一点，这不是他们的错。日本人喜欢保留他们的同质性和文化。
Immigration creates more complex problems . Many societies are able to assimilate immigrants better and both individual and society benefit from that like USA but I don't think Japanese society is capable of that and not their fault . Japanese people like to preserve their homogeneity and culture .
移民会产生更复杂的问题。许多社会能够更好地同化移民，个人和社会都从中受益，比如美国，但我认为日本社会没有能力做到这一点，这不是他们的错。日本人喜欢保留他们的同质性和文化。
Geoffrey Widdison
I know they do, but what we like doesn’t drive the reality of the world. The nation of Japan, right now, this minute, is in a demographic crisis which is only going to get worse with time. Even if they could get fertility rates back up, there’s way too much demographic inertia to turn the situation around in less than a century.
I’m very aware that Japan would have a great deal of trouble assimilating a large immigrant population. I lived in Japan for a number of years, and I have a pretty good sense of the sense of monolithic culture there. And I don’t have a particular problem with their way of seeing things. I admire and respect the Japanese culture, and I want to see it preserved.
The facts are still the facts, though. Japan is not in a situation where they can realistically breed their way out of this mess. Their choice is to wait for the economy to decline into a worse and worse quagmire, with long-term consequences we can only guess at (this situation is literally unprecedented in human history), or they can allow and encourage a sext group of immigrants to come to the country and do the work that they no longer have enough young people for. Either option will have a lot of complex consequences, but it’s almost inconceivable that the immigration solution would be worse that the “economic collapse” solution.
我知道。但我们光喜欢某样东西并不能改变世界的现实。日本国，现在，这一分钟，正处于人口危机之中，随着时间的推移，情况只会越来越糟。即使他们能够恢复生育率，也有太多的人口惯性，无法在不到一个世纪的时间内扭转局面。
我很清楚日本在同化大量移民人口方面会遇到很多麻烦。我在日本生活了很多年，我非常了解那里的单一文化。我对他们看待事物的方式没有特别的意见。我钦佩和尊重日本文化，我希望看到它得以保存。
不过，事实终究是事实。日本无法真正摆脱困境。他们的选择一是等待经济陷入越来越糟糕的泥潭，没有人能知道长期后果是什么（这种情况在人类历史上确实是前所未有的），二是或者他们可以允许并鼓励特定的移民群体来到这个国家，做他们那些不再有足够年轻人来做的工作。任何一种选择都会产生很多复杂的后果，但很难想象移民的解决方案会比“坐等经济崩溃”这个方案更糟糕。
I know they do, but what we like doesn’t drive the reality of the world. The nation of Japan, right now, this minute, is in a demographic crisis which is only going to get worse with time. Even if they could get fertility rates back up, there’s way too much demographic inertia to turn the situation around in less than a century.
I’m very aware that Japan would have a great deal of trouble assimilating a large immigrant population. I lived in Japan for a number of years, and I have a pretty good sense of the sense of monolithic culture there. And I don’t have a particular problem with their way of seeing things. I admire and respect the Japanese culture, and I want to see it preserved.
The facts are still the facts, though. Japan is not in a situation where they can realistically breed their way out of this mess. Their choice is to wait for the economy to decline into a worse and worse quagmire, with long-term consequences we can only guess at (this situation is literally unprecedented in human history), or they can allow and encourage a sext group of immigrants to come to the country and do the work that they no longer have enough young people for. Either option will have a lot of complex consequences, but it’s almost inconceivable that the immigration solution would be worse that the “economic collapse” solution.
我知道。但我们光喜欢某样东西并不能改变世界的现实。日本国，现在，这一分钟，正处于人口危机之中，随着时间的推移，情况只会越来越糟。即使他们能够恢复生育率，也有太多的人口惯性，无法在不到一个世纪的时间内扭转局面。
我很清楚日本在同化大量移民人口方面会遇到很多麻烦。我在日本生活了很多年，我非常了解那里的单一文化。我对他们看待事物的方式没有特别的意见。我钦佩和尊重日本文化，我希望看到它得以保存。
不过，事实终究是事实。日本无法真正摆脱困境。他们的选择一是等待经济陷入越来越糟糕的泥潭，没有人能知道长期后果是什么（这种情况在人类历史上确实是前所未有的），二是或者他们可以允许并鼓励特定的移民群体来到这个国家，做他们那些不再有足够年轻人来做的工作。任何一种选择都会产生很多复杂的后果，但很难想象移民的解决方案会比“坐等经济崩溃”这个方案更糟糕。
And here’s another point. Japan, right now, remains wealthy, there are a whole lot of educated and hard-working people in poorer countries who would love to come to the country, learn Japanese, and become valuable members of society, if the country made it easy for them. And being an archipelago, Japan’s in a pretty good position to control immigration. That means that they pretty much have their pick of potential immigrants, and can invite the cream of the crop. But their bargaining position will only get worse with time. As other countries in the region develop economically and Japan’s economy declines, the most in-demand immigrants will head off to sunnier shores. At that point, Japan will have to accept anyone they can get, if they want to head off catastrophe. That includes people with no education, with criminal records, people who aren’t willing to take steps to culturally assimilate, and who don’t bring particularly impressive skills. Twenty years ago, Japan could have pursued an immigration program that would have headed this problem off completely, and presented minimal issues. Now, they could probably still make it happen, but it would be tougher. Wait twenty or thirty more years, and they may not have any good options left.
I understand the Japanese resistance to increased immigration. But that resistance comes in the face of absolute necessity.
还有一点。日本现在仍然很富裕，在较贫穷的国家有很多受过良好教育和勤奋工作的人愿意来这个国家学习日语，并成为社会有价值的成员，如果这个国家对他们很接纳的话。作为一个群岛国家，日本在控制移民方面处于非常有利的地位。这意味着他们几乎可以随意挑选潜在的移民，并且可以邀请里面百里挑一的人才。但随着时间的推移，他们的谈判地位只会变得更糟。随着该地区其他国家的经济发展和日本经济的衰退，最有潜力的移民将前往更阳光的海岸。到那时，如果日本想避免灾难，就必须接受他们能得到的任何人。这包括没有受过教育的人、有犯罪记录的人、不愿意进行文化同化的人，以及没有特别令人印象深刻的技能的人。二十年前，日本本可以推行一项移民计划，完全解决这个问题，并把问题降到最低。现在，他们可能仍然可以实现它，但会更难。再等二十、三十年，他们可能就没有什么好的选择了。
我理解日本人对增加移民的抗拒。但火烧眉毛，已别无选择了。
I understand the Japanese resistance to increased immigration. But that resistance comes in the face of absolute necessity.
还有一点。日本现在仍然很富裕，在较贫穷的国家有很多受过良好教育和勤奋工作的人愿意来这个国家学习日语，并成为社会有价值的成员，如果这个国家对他们很接纳的话。作为一个群岛国家，日本在控制移民方面处于非常有利的地位。这意味着他们几乎可以随意挑选潜在的移民，并且可以邀请里面百里挑一的人才。但随着时间的推移，他们的谈判地位只会变得更糟。随着该地区其他国家的经济发展和日本经济的衰退，最有潜力的移民将前往更阳光的海岸。到那时，如果日本想避免灾难，就必须接受他们能得到的任何人。这包括没有受过教育的人、有犯罪记录的人、不愿意进行文化同化的人，以及没有特别令人印象深刻的技能的人。二十年前，日本本可以推行一项移民计划，完全解决这个问题，并把问题降到最低。现在，他们可能仍然可以实现它，但会更难。再等二十、三十年，他们可能就没有什么好的选择了。
我理解日本人对增加移民的抗拒。但火烧眉毛，已别无选择了。
David Sodeyama
Well, the sheer reality is that a lot of Japanese would rather die off rather than assimilate foreigners for the sake of just surviving.
My dad, who is definitely in that “older” range, finds it sad that a lot of his favorite places that he enjoyed are gone due to the older people passing away and their families not wanting to take over the family trade.
But he doesn't necessarily see immigration as the answer.
See, the whole system is based on trust and feelings.
The way the trades in Japan works is, if I don't feel like I can trust you to pass along the same quality and traditional values, I would rather just not and let the thing just die away.
That feeling is probably the norm for a lot of people.
好吧，赤裸裸的现实是，很多日本人宁愿死掉也不愿意为了生存而同化外国人。
我的父亲，绝对属于那个"老年"的范围，他感到很难过，因为很多他喜欢的地方由于老年人的去世和他们的家人不想接管家族的贸易而消失了。
但他不一定认为移民是问题的答案。
你看，整个体系是建立在信任和感情之上的。
日本行业的运作方式是：如果我觉得我不相信你能把同样的质量和传统价值传下去，我宁愿不传给你，让它消亡。
这种感觉可能是很多人的常态。
Well, the sheer reality is that a lot of Japanese would rather die off rather than assimilate foreigners for the sake of just surviving.
My dad, who is definitely in that “older” range, finds it sad that a lot of his favorite places that he enjoyed are gone due to the older people passing away and their families not wanting to take over the family trade.
But he doesn't necessarily see immigration as the answer.
See, the whole system is based on trust and feelings.
The way the trades in Japan works is, if I don't feel like I can trust you to pass along the same quality and traditional values, I would rather just not and let the thing just die away.
That feeling is probably the norm for a lot of people.
好吧，赤裸裸的现实是，很多日本人宁愿死掉也不愿意为了生存而同化外国人。
我的父亲，绝对属于那个"老年"的范围，他感到很难过，因为很多他喜欢的地方由于老年人的去世和他们的家人不想接管家族的贸易而消失了。
但他不一定认为移民是问题的答案。
你看，整个体系是建立在信任和感情之上的。
日本行业的运作方式是：如果我觉得我不相信你能把同样的质量和传统价值传下去，我宁愿不传给你，让它消亡。
这种感觉可能是很多人的常态。
I believe some of it is because people don't mind things disappearing to be replaced by something new because it's the cycle of existence and that feeling of longing is natural part of living.
And besides, people would rather remember how great that place is rather than be disappointed that the place turned to crap because they didn't want to do the insane amount of hard work needed to get the best quality.
So if the Japanese as a cultural nation disappears because no one wants to put in the hard work to keep the quality of Japan the same, then let it die.
Then let it be replaced by whatever is coming.
By then, as my dad says, I'll definitely be gone and hopefully someone will miss me in the same way.
我相信其中一些原因是，人们不介意事物的消失以及被新事物取代，因为这是现实的循环，这种渴望的感觉是生活的自然组成部分。
此外，人们宁愿记住那个地方曾经有多棒，也不想看到因为后人做不到为了最好的质量付出疯狂的努力而让那个地方逐渐变成垃圾感到失望。
因此，如果日本人作为一个文化民族消失了，因为没有人再愿意付出艰苦的努力来保持日本的质量不变，那么就让它死去吧。
然后让它被即将到来的任何东西所取代。
到那时，正如我父亲所说，我肯定已经死了，希望有人会以同样的方式怀念我。
And besides, people would rather remember how great that place is rather than be disappointed that the place turned to crap because they didn't want to do the insane amount of hard work needed to get the best quality.
So if the Japanese as a cultural nation disappears because no one wants to put in the hard work to keep the quality of Japan the same, then let it die.
Then let it be replaced by whatever is coming.
By then, as my dad says, I'll definitely be gone and hopefully someone will miss me in the same way.
我相信其中一些原因是，人们不介意事物的消失以及被新事物取代，因为这是现实的循环，这种渴望的感觉是生活的自然组成部分。
此外，人们宁愿记住那个地方曾经有多棒，也不想看到因为后人做不到为了最好的质量付出疯狂的努力而让那个地方逐渐变成垃圾感到失望。
因此，如果日本人作为一个文化民族消失了，因为没有人再愿意付出艰苦的努力来保持日本的质量不变，那么就让它死去吧。
然后让它被即将到来的任何东西所取代。
到那时，正如我父亲所说，我肯定已经死了，希望有人会以同样的方式怀念我。
AngryApe - DEACTIVATED
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang, but a whimper
这就是世界终结的方式
这就是世界终结的方式
这就是世界终结的方式
不是砰的一声，而是一声呜咽
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang, but a whimper
这就是世界终结的方式
这就是世界终结的方式
这就是世界终结的方式
不是砰的一声，而是一声呜咽
uke Hatherton
Stupid reality forcing the world to integrate into one whole. In Canada we regard the idea of nations in agony over change and assimilation as strange. The USA obviously does too, despite Trump’s and some sexually frustrated white nationalists’ wailing.
愚蠢的现实迫使世界融入一个整体。在加拿大，我们认为国家在变革和同化中苦苦挣扎的想法很奇怪。美国显然也是如此，尽管特朗普和一些性挫折的白人民族主义者在哀号。
Stupid reality forcing the world to integrate into one whole. In Canada we regard the idea of nations in agony over change and assimilation as strange. The USA obviously does too, despite Trump’s and some sexually frustrated white nationalists’ wailing.
愚蠢的现实迫使世界融入一个整体。在加拿大，我们认为国家在变革和同化中苦苦挣扎的想法很奇怪。美国显然也是如此，尽管特朗普和一些性挫折的白人民族主义者在哀号。
Geoffrey Widdison
Sure, but we've dealt with diversity for a long time. We're all too aware of the challenges, and we generally appreciate the benefits. My wife is Caribbean, my doctor is Indian, my dentist is Asian and my favorite restaurant is Greek. We're accustomed to a world where we expect the good things of the world to flow to us, and in return, we're expected to respect and accept other cultures and lifestyles.
In an effective monoculture, like Japan, that entire concept seems scary and intimidating. And I understand that, but the reality is, they can't escape it.
As I mentioned before, one of Japan's historic strengths has been it's ability to rapidly adapt their society in new ways when that was needed. And now it's absolutely needed.
当然，但我们处理多样性问题已经很长时间了。我们都很清楚其中的挑战，而且我们普遍欣赏其中的好处。我的妻子是加勒比人，我的医生是印度人，我的牙医是亚洲人，我最喜欢的餐厅是希腊餐厅。我们习惯于这样一个世界，我们期望世界上的好东西都流向我们，作为回报，我们被期望尊重和接受其他文化和生活方式。
在像日本这样有效的单一文化中，这个概念似乎很可怕，令人生畏。我理解这一点，但现实是，他们无法逃避它。
正如我之前提到的，日本的历史优势之一是它有能力在需要时以新的方式迅速调整他们的社会。而现在，它是绝对需要这么做的。
Sure, but we've dealt with diversity for a long time. We're all too aware of the challenges, and we generally appreciate the benefits. My wife is Caribbean, my doctor is Indian, my dentist is Asian and my favorite restaurant is Greek. We're accustomed to a world where we expect the good things of the world to flow to us, and in return, we're expected to respect and accept other cultures and lifestyles.
In an effective monoculture, like Japan, that entire concept seems scary and intimidating. And I understand that, but the reality is, they can't escape it.
As I mentioned before, one of Japan's historic strengths has been it's ability to rapidly adapt their society in new ways when that was needed. And now it's absolutely needed.
当然，但我们处理多样性问题已经很长时间了。我们都很清楚其中的挑战，而且我们普遍欣赏其中的好处。我的妻子是加勒比人，我的医生是印度人，我的牙医是亚洲人，我最喜欢的餐厅是希腊餐厅。我们习惯于这样一个世界，我们期望世界上的好东西都流向我们，作为回报，我们被期望尊重和接受其他文化和生活方式。
在像日本这样有效的单一文化中，这个概念似乎很可怕，令人生畏。我理解这一点，但现实是，他们无法逃避它。
正如我之前提到的，日本的历史优势之一是它有能力在需要时以新的方式迅速调整他们的社会。而现在，它是绝对需要这么做的。
Daniel Melo
They did accept a considerable amount of Japanese-Brazilians. Some didn’t like the work culture there and went back. It’s hard to get a good job in Japan if you didn’t go to a prestigious Japanese University too, so even guys with good Brazilian diplomas had a hard time and had to work at jobs they were overqualified.
他们确实接受了相当数量的日裔巴西人。有些人不喜欢那里的工作文化，然后回去了。如果你没有上过著名的日本大学，很难在日本找到一份好工作，所以即使是拥有良好巴西文凭的人也很艰难，而且不得不从事那些他们看起来比较下层的工作。
They did accept a considerable amount of Japanese-Brazilians. Some didn’t like the work culture there and went back. It’s hard to get a good job in Japan if you didn’t go to a prestigious Japanese University too, so even guys with good Brazilian diplomas had a hard time and had to work at jobs they were overqualified.
他们确实接受了相当数量的日裔巴西人。有些人不喜欢那里的工作文化，然后回去了。如果你没有上过著名的日本大学，很难在日本找到一份好工作，所以即使是拥有良好巴西文凭的人也很艰难，而且不得不从事那些他们看起来比较下层的工作。
Fordjour Emmanuel
I couldn't agree more to your assertion
In fact immigration is key to the development of every country whether you like it or not
Japan can adopt the Canadian style of immigration
Inviting educated individuals into the country to complement their working population. Japan is a sucessful country and they will be willing.
Take my country for example in Ghana there are a lot of educated guys ready to immigrate and work outside a whole lot of engineers these are intelligent people when given the proper training and opportunity will do marvellous work
And it can be on contract 4 to 5 years
They will be ok
我非常同意你的论断
事实上，无论你喜欢与否，移民是每个国家发展的关键。
日本可以采用加拿大的移民方式
邀请受过教育的人进入该国以补充其工作人口。日本是一个成功的国家，这些人会愿意的。
以我国为例，加纳有很多受过教育的人准备移民并在外面工作，有很多工程师，这些人都是聪明人，如果有适当的培训和机会，他们会做出色的工作。
而且可以是4到5年的合同制
他们会慢慢习惯的
I couldn't agree more to your assertion
In fact immigration is key to the development of every country whether you like it or not
Japan can adopt the Canadian style of immigration
Inviting educated individuals into the country to complement their working population. Japan is a sucessful country and they will be willing.
Take my country for example in Ghana there are a lot of educated guys ready to immigrate and work outside a whole lot of engineers these are intelligent people when given the proper training and opportunity will do marvellous work
And it can be on contract 4 to 5 years
They will be ok
我非常同意你的论断
事实上，无论你喜欢与否，移民是每个国家发展的关键。
日本可以采用加拿大的移民方式
邀请受过教育的人进入该国以补充其工作人口。日本是一个成功的国家，这些人会愿意的。
以我国为例，加纳有很多受过教育的人准备移民并在外面工作，有很多工程师，这些人都是聪明人，如果有适当的培训和机会，他们会做出色的工作。
而且可以是4到5年的合同制
他们会慢慢习惯的
Hardik Sukhdeep Singh
Lots of assumptions here… if they’ve never had mass migration who knows how they really would react to it. Japanese society is generally very polite and non confrontational, much more than in Anglo countries, so the reaction maybe would be more muted. Also since Japan has an advanced economy they could literally pick and choose what types of immigrants they wanted.
这里有很多假设……如果他们从未经历过大规模移民，谁知道他们真的反应会如何。日本社会总体上非常有礼貌，没有对抗性，比盎格鲁国家要好得多，所以反应可能会更温和。此外，由于日本经济发达，他们可以从字面上挑选他们想要的移民类型。
Lots of assumptions here… if they’ve never had mass migration who knows how they really would react to it. Japanese society is generally very polite and non confrontational, much more than in Anglo countries, so the reaction maybe would be more muted. Also since Japan has an advanced economy they could literally pick and choose what types of immigrants they wanted.
这里有很多假设……如果他们从未经历过大规模移民，谁知道他们真的反应会如何。日本社会总体上非常有礼貌，没有对抗性，比盎格鲁国家要好得多，所以反应可能会更温和。此外，由于日本经济发达，他们可以从字面上挑选他们想要的移民类型。
Anh Khoa Nguyen
sounds like you don’t know about East Asian culture in general, and Japanese culture in particular. East Asian culture, Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Vietnamese, we, I say here, we, all highly value harmony and homogeneity. We are suspicious of outsiders, because they don’t follow the rule in our lands. It’s the same everywhere to be resistant to outsiders, but it’s much, much bigger issue for East Asian countries who have long history of homogeneity and suffered alot from invasion of outsiders, even just the invasion from neighborhood countries.
Yes, Japanese are very polite and non-confrontational. You go to their house, they will open, invite you in, let you eat their meals, allowing you to stay for a long time. But you will be forever be a guest. You will never be a family to them, if you are not the same as them. Yes it is subtle, but you will realize right away, especially if you are not from East Asia so you looks differently also.
听起来你好像不是很了解东亚文化，特别是日本文化。东亚文化，中国、韩国、日本、越南，我们，我在这里说“我们”，都高度重视和谐和同质性。我们怀疑外来者，因为他们不遵守我们土地上的规则。对外来者的抵制在任何地方都是一样的，但对于具有长期同质化历史并遭受外来者入侵甚至邻国入侵的东亚国家来说，这是一个更大的问题。
是的，日本人非常有礼貌，不喜欢对抗。你去他们家，他们会打开门，邀请你进去，让你吃他们的饭菜，允许你呆很长时间。但你将永远是一个客人。你永远不会成为他们的家人，如果你和他们不一样。是的，这很微妙，但你马上就会意识到，特别是如果你不是来自东亚，外表看起来如此不同。
sounds like you don’t know about East Asian culture in general, and Japanese culture in particular. East Asian culture, Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Vietnamese, we, I say here, we, all highly value harmony and homogeneity. We are suspicious of outsiders, because they don’t follow the rule in our lands. It’s the same everywhere to be resistant to outsiders, but it’s much, much bigger issue for East Asian countries who have long history of homogeneity and suffered alot from invasion of outsiders, even just the invasion from neighborhood countries.
Yes, Japanese are very polite and non-confrontational. You go to their house, they will open, invite you in, let you eat their meals, allowing you to stay for a long time. But you will be forever be a guest. You will never be a family to them, if you are not the same as them. Yes it is subtle, but you will realize right away, especially if you are not from East Asia so you looks differently also.
听起来你好像不是很了解东亚文化，特别是日本文化。东亚文化，中国、韩国、日本、越南，我们，我在这里说“我们”，都高度重视和谐和同质性。我们怀疑外来者，因为他们不遵守我们土地上的规则。对外来者的抵制在任何地方都是一样的，但对于具有长期同质化历史并遭受外来者入侵甚至邻国入侵的东亚国家来说，这是一个更大的问题。
是的，日本人非常有礼貌，不喜欢对抗。你去他们家，他们会打开门，邀请你进去，让你吃他们的饭菜，允许你呆很长时间。但你将永远是一个客人。你永远不会成为他们的家人，如果你和他们不一样。是的，这很微妙，但你马上就会意识到，特别是如果你不是来自东亚，外表看起来如此不同。
Matteo Scalas
And else Japan really doesn't need to accommodate anyone, it is the 3rd biggest economy today and it was the 2nd for a really long time (surpassed by China with 10 times the population).
They have a salary of $35000 on average, which I think is the highest in Asia. Poor countries like Thailand or Philippines are way more accommodating of foreigners because tourist (and husbands) bring in a lot of money. Japanese don't need anyone money.
I would else like to point out Japan is a really crowded place. Look at YouTube: Metro in Tokyo, to have an idea of how much crowded it is every single day. Tokyo is the biggest city in the world with 38 milion people, second is jakarta, Indonesia in Java island, the most crowded island in the world and with a density equal to Bangladesh.
此外日本真的不需要接纳任何人，它是当今第三大经济体，而且在很长一段时间内都是第二大经济体（超过人口是它 10 倍的中国）。
他们的人均GDP是35000美元，我认为是亚洲最高的。像泰国或菲律宾这样的贫穷国家对外国人更加包容，因为游客（和丈夫）带来了很多钱。日本人不需要任何人的钱。
我还想指出日本是一个非常拥挤的地方。看看YouTube上东京地铁的视频，了解一下那里每天拥挤的程度。东京是世界上最大的城市，拥有3800万人口，其次是印度尼西亚爪哇岛的雅加达，这个世界上人口最多的岛屿，人口密度与孟加拉国相当。
And else Japan really doesn't need to accommodate anyone, it is the 3rd biggest economy today and it was the 2nd for a really long time (surpassed by China with 10 times the population).
They have a salary of $35000 on average, which I think is the highest in Asia. Poor countries like Thailand or Philippines are way more accommodating of foreigners because tourist (and husbands) bring in a lot of money. Japanese don't need anyone money.
I would else like to point out Japan is a really crowded place. Look at YouTube: Metro in Tokyo, to have an idea of how much crowded it is every single day. Tokyo is the biggest city in the world with 38 milion people, second is jakarta, Indonesia in Java island, the most crowded island in the world and with a density equal to Bangladesh.
此外日本真的不需要接纳任何人，它是当今第三大经济体，而且在很长一段时间内都是第二大经济体（超过人口是它 10 倍的中国）。
他们的人均GDP是35000美元，我认为是亚洲最高的。像泰国或菲律宾这样的贫穷国家对外国人更加包容，因为游客（和丈夫）带来了很多钱。日本人不需要任何人的钱。
我还想指出日本是一个非常拥挤的地方。看看YouTube上东京地铁的视频，了解一下那里每天拥挤的程度。东京是世界上最大的城市，拥有3800万人口，其次是印度尼西亚爪哇岛的雅加达，这个世界上人口最多的岛屿，人口密度与孟加拉国相当。
Take a satellite view and have a look at the south east part of Honshu, the main island. You will see THOUSANDS of km with only city everywhere you go. I travelled by bicycle through there this year (and all South East Asia) and I have seen a worse crowded place (not just cities, but over a really large area) only in Java, Indonesia.
Where are you going to put the more people (babies or immigrants) if all the space is already developed and filled up at some level? Especially in a country full of freezing mountains, volcano, earthquake and all sort of natural disasters?
If they decided to concentrate the cities in the southern part of Honshu there must be a reason, they know their land for thousands of years!!!
打开卫星视图，看看主岛本州岛的东南部。你都会看到几十公里就有一座城市。今年我骑自行车穿过那里（以及整个东南亚），我只在印度尼西亚的爪哇见过更拥挤的地方（不仅是在城市里，而是一片很大的区域上）。
如果所有空间都已经开发并在某种程度上填满了，你打算把更多的人（婴儿或移民）放在哪里？尤其是在一个充满雪山、火山、地震和各种自然灾害的国家？
如果他们决定将城市集中在本州南部发展，那一定是有原因的，几千年了，他们了解他们的土地！！！
Where are you going to put the more people (babies or immigrants) if all the space is already developed and filled up at some level? Especially in a country full of freezing mountains, volcano, earthquake and all sort of natural disasters?
If they decided to concentrate the cities in the southern part of Honshu there must be a reason, they know their land for thousands of years!!!
打开卫星视图，看看主岛本州岛的东南部。你都会看到几十公里就有一座城市。今年我骑自行车穿过那里（以及整个东南亚），我只在印度尼西亚的爪哇见过更拥挤的地方（不仅是在城市里，而是一片很大的区域上）。
如果所有空间都已经开发并在某种程度上填满了，你打算把更多的人（婴儿或移民）放在哪里？尤其是在一个充满雪山、火山、地震和各种自然灾害的国家？
如果他们决定将城市集中在本州南部发展，那一定是有原因的，几千年了，他们了解他们的土地！！！
David Parry
It is not a question of time to procreate, but a number of things. Children are very expensive in Japan. The houses and apartments are very small, so having more than two kids becomes a big housing problem. Education is costly. One way and another, Japan now prefers small families. You see lots of only children. One explanation I heard was that many Japanese women are unprepared for the realities of childbirth and found it such a painful and unpleasant experience that they never want to do it again. It’s like the old chestnut about “if we could remember pain, we would all be only children.”
生育不只是时间问题，而是包含了很多事情。在日本，生孩子是非常昂贵的。房子和公寓都非常小，所以有两个以上的孩子就成了一个很大的住房问题。教育是昂贵的。各种因素叠加，日本现在更喜欢小家庭。你可以看到很多独生子女。我听到的一种解释是，许多日本女性对分娩的现实毫无准备，觉得分娩是一种痛苦和不愉快的经历，以至于她们再也不想这样做了。就像那句老话“如果我们能记住痛苦，我们都将是独生子”。
It is not a question of time to procreate, but a number of things. Children are very expensive in Japan. The houses and apartments are very small, so having more than two kids becomes a big housing problem. Education is costly. One way and another, Japan now prefers small families. You see lots of only children. One explanation I heard was that many Japanese women are unprepared for the realities of childbirth and found it such a painful and unpleasant experience that they never want to do it again. It’s like the old chestnut about “if we could remember pain, we would all be only children.”
生育不只是时间问题，而是包含了很多事情。在日本，生孩子是非常昂贵的。房子和公寓都非常小，所以有两个以上的孩子就成了一个很大的住房问题。教育是昂贵的。各种因素叠加，日本现在更喜欢小家庭。你可以看到很多独生子女。我听到的一种解释是，许多日本女性对分娩的现实毫无准备，觉得分娩是一种痛苦和不愉快的经历，以至于她们再也不想这样做了。就像那句老话“如果我们能记住痛苦，我们都将是独生子”。
Steven Lee
Other than healthcare, old people spend much less than young people. They are likely to already own their homes, own an old car and unlikely to change to a new car or don't even own a car. These are the two costliest items that anyone would buy. The GDP drops when real estate and car sales stagnant. Their personal needs and entertainment cost far less than young people. As the population ages but not replaced by younger generations, spending reduces and the economy suffers.
除了医疗保健，老年人的支出比年轻人少得多。他们可能已经拥有自己的房子，拥有一辆旧车，不太可能换新车，甚至不打算拥有汽车。这是任何人可以购买的两种最昂贵的物品。当房地产和汽车销售停滞不前时，GDP 就会下降。他们的个人需求和娱乐成本远低于年轻人。随着人口逐渐老龄化却没有被年轻一代取代，支出减少，经济就受到了影响。
Other than healthcare, old people spend much less than young people. They are likely to already own their homes, own an old car and unlikely to change to a new car or don't even own a car. These are the two costliest items that anyone would buy. The GDP drops when real estate and car sales stagnant. Their personal needs and entertainment cost far less than young people. As the population ages but not replaced by younger generations, spending reduces and the economy suffers.
除了医疗保健，老年人的支出比年轻人少得多。他们可能已经拥有自己的房子，拥有一辆旧车，不太可能换新车，甚至不打算拥有汽车。这是任何人可以购买的两种最昂贵的物品。当房地产和汽车销售停滞不前时，GDP 就会下降。他们的个人需求和娱乐成本远低于年轻人。随着人口逐渐老龄化却没有被年轻一代取代，支出减少，经济就受到了影响。
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