美国股市暴跌,日元汇率震荡不休,中美两国贸易战的风险,或将掀起一波大规模的资产抛售潮
2024-07-31 jgscllp 9597
正文翻译
The US stock meltdown just erased $1 trillion dollars of investor money. As the AI and tech bubble starts to deflate thanks to poor earnings, a perfect storm is brewing that could cause even bigger sell-offs.

美国股市暴跌使得投资者遭受巨大损失,资金规模高达一万亿美元!由于盈利不佳,人工智能和科技行业的泡沫开始逐渐破灭,一场完美风暴正在悄然酝酿,有可能引发更大规模的抛售潮。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


We must understand two big risks to the US economy and the equity markets - the big Yen reversal & the coming trade war risk with China.

我们有必要深入了解美国经济和股市所面临的两个重要风险因素,即日元大幅逆转以及即将到来的中美贸易战风险。

评论翻译
评论部分:

@John_21601
I could have sworn when I woke up today it was 2024. Evidently, it’s 1637. Tulips anyone?

我发誓今天早上一睁眼就发现已经是2024年了。显然,这像极了1637年的荷兰,难道是郁金香泡沫又来了?

@Mangsaab1954
I remember that story. That "special" tulip was super over valued and collapsed when folks woke up from their stupidity.

我还记得那个故事。那些“特殊”的郁金香的价值被高估了,而当人们从愚昧中醒悟过来时,它的价格便瞬间崩塌了。

@sootuckchoong7077
US have alot of rich guys. So. TRUMP will say, why worry?

美国有很多有钱人。所以,特朗普才会说,干嘛要担心这些事?

@Chr0n
A $1 trillion loss isn't enough according to Yellen. She wants to stock market to crash harder, at least $2.5 trillion.

耶伦表示,仅仅1万亿美元的损失根本就不够。她倒是希望股市暴跌得更厉害,起码得跌去2.5万亿美元才行。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@pikachus5m166
Big up for Trump and Vance, the sooner the US bubble pops and tanks the economy, the better.

给特朗普和万斯加油,美国的泡沫越早破裂,经济状况越糟糕越好。

@mitcoes
Annual GPD growth under 3% (Okun's law) causes unemployment.
Then 3% is the "zero" for GDP growth, in order to say economy improves or not.

根据奥肯定律,如果GPD年增长率低于 3%,将会导致失业率上升。因此,3%被视为GPD增长的“零界点”,用以衡量经济是否有所改善。

@zetsuboukami
China needs to derisk from the US and promote trade with the rest of the Global South. Poor US citizens, when they get hit with higher inflation due to the tariffs.

中国需要面对来自美国的风险,同时积极推动与南半球其他国家之间的贸易合作。而对于那些可怜的美国公民来说,他们将因关税问题而承受更高的通货膨胀的打击。

@JackCarsonite
"The Global South" doesn't have any money

“全球南方”没有钱了。

@WanderingSword @JackCarsonite
global south gdp bigger then g7. Wait until toilet paper is unaffordable, billyboy

全球南方的经济总量远远超过七国集团。等什么时候连卫生纸都涨价到买不起了再说吧,小家伙。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@iainw5081
US hardly makes any drugs and a lack of Chinese machine parts would cause US supply chains to start collapsing.

美国根本就不生产任何药品,缺乏中国产的机器零部件,导致美国的整个供应链开始崩溃了。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@jeffrey7cp992
Generally, the average American understanding of world events, geography, history, are way down, compared even some so call 3rd countries. Something is wrong.

总的来说,美国人对于世界大事、地理知识以及历史知识等方面的了解程度,远不及一些所谓的第三世界国家。这事儿有点不对劲。

@barryshaw5660
Sean, it seems obvious that the SCO, BRICS and the ASEAN countries are going in the right direction into the future.

肖恩,显而易见,上海合作组织、金砖国家以及东盟国家正在朝着正确的道路稳步前进。

@tedchandran
Jai Hind. Forget these places. We Indians like to bring our Quadruplet Japanese to the Plaza

印度万岁,先别管这些地方了。我们印度人就喜欢把我们四国联盟之一的日本人带到广场上来。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@1976athletico
Inflation is not part of economic decline? Biggest joke of 2024.

通货膨胀竟然不是经济衰退的一部分?这简直就是2024年最大的笑话。

@janicetone2313
Just think = Yellen is the Best and Brightest of USA Academia .

仔细想想看,耶伦可是美国最优秀、最聪明的人才之一哦。

@kooisengchng5283
Japan has to ask US for permission to save their Yen. What a joker! US will not give the permission Japan asks for. So it is goodbye Yen.

日本不得不去求美国让它存点儿日元,真是丢人现眼!不过美国才不会答应日本的要求。所以,再见了,日元。

@jc9109
Up next Korean won.

接下来轮到韩元了。

@user-ki7bs3rv7i
US is trying to wreck all Asian currency before the fallout of the US dollars.
The EU currency are also affected.

在美元崩盘之前,美国正在想方设法把亚洲各国的货币都搞垮。包括欧元也受到了影响。

@nicogun7177
Approval or not, the Japanese still proceeded to sell the US treasuries to save the Yen and it's working this time. Self-preservation always comes first.

不管美国同不同意,日本人还是坚持继续卖掉美国国债来保住自家的日元,这次还真起作用了。毕竟,自保才是最重要的。

@clippers4me
So many dumb U.S allies following the u.S to a cliff , but yet this still keep on marching towards the end of the cliff

还是有很多愚蠢的美国盟友,傻乎乎的跟着美国往悬崖下面跳,可是美国并没有停下脚步,一步步走向悬崖的尽头。

@user-ot2nh8qb7d
There is no one to blame but themselves. Everyone could see that coming and could have told Japan that. It will benefit everyone but Japan.

这只能说是他们咎由自取。大家早就看穿了这一切,也都提醒过日本。这样做只会让除了日本之外的其他国家受益。

Japan has no choice but to double down now or face shame, dishonor, and backlash for making all the wrong decisions.

现在日本已经别无选择,只能加倍努力,否则就要为自己的错误决策而面临耻辱、蒙羞和受到强烈反对。

@maanviss3840
Sovereignty on paper only ...

主权只是纸上谈兵罢了。

@AC_Milan1899
Japan are ruthless, make no mistake they will look after themselves when it comes down to it.

日本人可是铁石心肠,毫无疑问,到了关键时刻他们肯定会先照顾好自己。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@shaufiqfauzi6640
Well can’t blame them because Japan is still US colonies since WW2

这不能怪他们,因为自二战以来,日本一直是美国的殖民地。

@araara4746
All US allied countries, whose economies are built on US hegemony, are in a two-edged sword dilemma.

所有那些把经济命脉建立在美国霸权基础上的美国盟友们,现在都陷入了进退两难的境地。

If they don't help the US maintain its hegemony, then when the US collapses, they will collapse too.

如果他们不帮着美国维护霸权地位,那么等到美国崩溃的那一天,他们自己也得跟着崩溃。

But if they help the US maintain its hegemony, then they have to sacrifice their interests.

但是如果他们帮助美国维护霸权地位,那就意味着他们得牺牲自己的利益。

Between these two options, they saw that the only hope for them would be if the US could maintain its hegemony, even though the possibility was very small.

在这两个选项之间,他们发现,他们唯一的希望就是寄托在美国能够保持霸权地位上,尽管这个可能性微乎其微。

@binghong9813@shaufiqfauzi6640
​It a shame that 79 years after WW2, US troops still occupies Japan. Where is the Japanese honour?

真的太遗憾了,二战都过去79年了,美国军队居然还占领着日本。日本人的尊严在哪里?

@Africanchild825
America is never kind to its slaves.

美国从来不会善待它的奴隶。

@garrycoleman8537 @maanviss3840
​occupied countries are NOT sovereign, that includes countries like Australia!!! All descions are made in Washington,!!

被占领的国家不是主权国家,包括澳大利亚这样的国家也是如此!所有的决策都是由华盛顿做出的!
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@AoiKaze-xt6rk
Grandma Janet saying Inflation should not be an indicator of a failing economy is just like saying the milk is safe for drinking even after putting a drop of poison in it.

珍妮特奶奶曾经说过,通货膨胀不能算是经济衰退的标志,就跟说牛奶里加了一滴毒药也能放心喝一样。

@mastershoka2939
US debt problem is the problem of Japan,S.korea,EU,Canada and all those Nations who are buying US bonds and Lending Debt to USA.if it collapses it will Collapse entire Structure.

美国的债务问题,其实就是日本、韩国、欧盟、加拿大以及所有那些购买美国国债,借钱给美国的国家的问题。如果美国崩溃了,那么整个结构都会跟着崩溃。

@verypleasantguy
No, it won't collapse the entire structure. At the very least, China's structure will be hit, but will not collapse

不,它不至于让整个结构崩溃。至少,中国的经济结构会受到冲击,但不会崩溃。

@ABH565 @verypleasantguy
​still would hurt a lot.

还是会很伤的。

@verypleasantguy @ABH565
sure, it would be hurtful,but it will live on

当然,这会伤很重,但它还是会一直存在下去。

@Helena_Zee
US GDP numbers are clearly manipulated. Last year, the regime quietly revised it down after being caught in a lie.

美国的GDP数据明显是被人操控的。去年,在被揭穿谎言后,该政权偷偷摸摸对数据进行了修订。

It's the same story with grotesquely overpriced US stocks, which are not worth their present-day value.

同样的情况也发生在那些被严重高估的美国股票上,这些股票的实际价值根本不值现在的价格。

@KaiserHooray
You are correct. They announce the numbers all over media, then months later, quietly revise the numbers. It has become standard practice.

你说得没错。他们总是在各种媒体上发布那些数据,然后过了几个月,又悄悄把这些数字给改了。这已经变成了一种常规操作。

@faster6329
In the 60s, people thought we would have flying cars in the year 2000. in 2024 some are still driving 60s cars :)

60年代的时候,大家都觉得到了2000年,我们就能坐上飞行汽车了。结果到了2024年,还有人在开着60年代的车呢。

AI will disappoint some people.

人工智能肯定会让一些人大失所望。

@mejust8392
U nailed it when u say China dont need US import to run their economy, they are the world's factory. The rest of the world can do without US products but not China's.

你说中国不需要从美国进口,也能维持经济运转。你说得对,他们是世界工厂,世界上其他地方可以没有美国产品,但不能没有中国产品。

@rogerstarkey5390
They also have a 1.4bn home market

他们还有一个十四亿人的国内市场。

@fr_reynolds5002
I've been saying this for years. Americas problem is their broke and don't produce much of value. Chinas biggest problem is their customers are deadbeats. Ultimately needing new customers is a better problem to have.

这话我都已经说了好几年了。美国的问题在于他们已经破产了,没法创造出更多的价值。而中国最大的问题则是他们的客户都是一群不讲信用的家伙。最后还是得想办法找到新客户才行。

@klimatbluffen
Sure, a lot is made in China, but if you want quality, you don't choose stuff from China.

当然,很多产品都是中国制造的,但如果你追求高品质,肯定不会选中国货。

@wypung8806 @klimatbluffen
​Bro. do you know iphones are still assembled in china? China sure damn can make good quality product. It always depend on how much the principle wanna pay them.

兄弟,你知道苹果手机都是在中国组装完成的吗?中国肯定有能力生产出高品质的产品,产品的质量取决于客户愿意为这些产品付多少钱罢了。

@holyfreakinschift5740
Sounds like the US is "sacrificing" the yen to prop up the dollar. Like the old chess master said, it's always better to sacrifice the other player's men.

听起来美国似乎正在通过“牺牲”日元来支撑美元的地位。就如同经验丰富的老棋手所说的,善于牺牲对手的一方往往能够获得更有利的局面。

@taoboxer7
The centennial of the Great Depression is in 2029, just saying.

值得一提的是,2029年是大萧条的一百周年纪念日。

@firstnamerequiredlastnameo3473
Spot out your favorite soup kitchens now. Avoid the rush.

为了避免慌乱,找个你最喜欢的施粥点去吧。

@pitpalac @firstnamerequiredlastnameo3473
you have to pay attention to military tents and soups, for a basic living.
usa needs a bigger army for the future military campaigns invasions.

你可得留心军用帐篷和热汤,这些都是基本的生存需求。美国得有一支规模更大的军队,来应对未来的军事入侵。

@jetblack6850
Vance:We don't want China to build their midle class off of Americans. But we Americans will build our great economy off of the OTHERS.

万斯:我们不希望中国在美国人的基础上建立自己的中产阶级。但是我们美国人将在其他国家的基础上打造我们强大的经济体系。

@skijay2010
inflation is not part of economic decline, just wow. empire of liars keep blowing my mind with new facts

通货膨胀并不是经济衰退的一部分,哇!谎言帝国不断用新的事实,来让我大开眼界。

@alrent2992
Yellen is a liar!

耶伦是个骗子!

@ardour1587
Yellens face itself is a sign of decline

耶伦的那张脸本身就是衰败的象征。

@verypleasantguy @alrent2992
Who in Washington DC isn't a liar ?

在华盛顿特区,又有谁不是骗子呢?

@janicetone2313
Think of it = Yellen is the best and brightest of USA Academia ! ! !
She is also part of "duo-citizen, undeclared Foreign Agents" tribe.

想象一下吧,耶伦可是美国学术界最为杰出、最为聪慧的人物之一!而且她还是那个“拥有双重国籍,未申报的外国代理人”群体中的一员。

@verypleasantguy @janicetone2313
If you dunno yet, that tribe happened to own USA

如果你还不知道,那个群体恰好拥有美国。

@stephenlock7236
Of course it's not. Zimbabwe is also not in economic decline, although its inflation is out of the atmosphere.

当然不是,津巴布韦并没有因为通胀问题而陷入经济衰退,虽然它的通货膨胀已经飞上天了。

@teatree6228
Vance is short sighted - if there are more middle class Chinese, they can then afford to buy American foods snd goods n services.

万斯的观点有点短视了,如果中国能涌现出更多的中产阶级群体,那么他们就能买得起美国的食品、商品和服务。

Thats how economy works
This is why the BRI works well- it aims to prosper all trading partners

经济就是这么运作的。这也是“一带一路” 倡议之所以取得巨大成功的原因所在,它的目标就是促进所有贸易伙伴的繁荣。

@LaurenJ.Gordon
The Market have been suffering over the past month, with all the three indexes recording losses in recent weeks. My $400,000 portfolio is down by approximately 20%, any recommendations to scale up my returns before retirement will be highly appreciated.

最近一个月,美国股市一直表现不佳,最近几周三大股指全都在下跌。我那价值40万美元的投资组合已经缩水了大概20%,所以只要有人能给我提供一些能让我在退休之前提高回报率的建议,我都会非常感激的。

@MsKris2626
Thank you for telling us Americans the truth

感谢你告诉我们美国人的真实情况。

@gelinrefira
Not like you people are going to change anything.

你们这些人又改变不了什么。

@jamesho8820
America continues its suicidal death spiral. The Chinese gov't has the advantage of being able to establish policy and guide their economy

美国还在继续他们那种自杀式的死亡螺旋。中国政府的优势就是能制定政策,然后引领他们的经济走向正确的方向;
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


while the American gov't deludes itself that exceptionalism alone will lead them to victory against a perceived enemy such as China. China's pragmatic strategy will win out to be sure.

反观美国政府,却还在自欺欺人地以为,只有采取例外论的策略,才能打败像中国这样强大的对手。毫无疑问,最后胜利的肯定还是中国的务实战略。

@gideondejongh838
They did it to themselves. Like Sean said.

这都是他们自己搞出来的。就像肖恩说的那样。

@KaiserHooray
Reality will eventually win over fantasy over the long run.

从长远来看,现实终究会战胜幻想。

@omegabulldog5001
Trump would want to split Russia-China apart though, that's what he was trying to do before and want to do again.

特朗普试图分裂俄罗斯和中国,这就是他之前想要做的,他还想再做一次。

@why-trichard7728
Sad days coming for d American people. Its the start of the End Times

美国人民的苦日子就要来了,这简直就是世界末日的开始。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@hyhhy
It probably won't be as bad as the USSR collapse though...

不过,这可能没有苏联解体那么严重……

@fillyjamalama5201@hyhhy
It will be worse​

但情况可能会更糟糕。

@thehturt5480 @hyhhy
​You raised a good point. But I believe is gonna to be worse bcz the debt of the US is really astronomical - 35 T dollars. In fact the US is unable to repay the debt.

你提出了一个很好的观点。但是我觉得情况还会更糟,因为美国的债务真的是天文数字,35万亿美元。实际上,美国根本无法偿还这些债务。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@JohnPap21
Countries who are self sufficient will be ok. Only those who are depended from world trade are the ones who are going to suffer. Primarily the European ones who sided with USA and made the mistake to turn against China India Turkey and Russia.

那些能够自给自足的国家就不用担心了。只有那些依赖国际贸易的国家才会受苦。主要是欧洲各国,他们站在美国一边,错误地反对起了中国、印度、土耳其和俄罗斯。

@__J____ff
how is that supposed to be sad days ? That means Jesus is coming back

这怎么会是悲伤的日子呢?这意味着耶稣要再次降临人间了。

@sunnytneoh3126 @__J____ff
Jesus has been coming for 2000 years

耶稣早在两千年前就已经来过了。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@why-trichard7728
Isn't that what the biblical prediction says, there'll be 1,000 years of peace & prosperity?

圣经里的预言不就是这么说的吗,会有一千年的和平与繁荣?

@MrTnylam
I remember as a college student learning economics where price/ earnings ratio matters,,,not so anymore. A huge crash is coming.

我还记得我读大学那会儿,经济学课上讲的都是价格/收益比非常重要,但现在却不是这样了。一场巨大的崩溃正在悄然逼近。
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@elsagelympne7943
Just wondering , if USA stop importing fr China due to high tariff, where are they going to source most of the goods in the supermarket?

只是想知道,如果美国因为高额的关税而停止从中国进口商品的话,那么他们又该去哪里购买超市里的大部分商品呢?
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


@tinatang1
A trade war is preferable to a hot war, though.

不过,贸易战还是比直接开打热战要好得多。

@eugenechin2863
Problem is, it starts as a trade war and eventually when one side realises it's gonna lose, then a hot war will begin.

问题在于,贸易战往往只是一个开端,最终当一方意识到自己可能会失败时,一场热战也就会随之而来。

@bobwilk5155
We know, when just before candle goes out blx blx with very brite light last Time and Dies...

我们都知道,蜡烛在熄灭前的一刹那,总是会最后一次发出最亮的光芒,然后就这样结束了生命……

@random2829
The idea of "American Exceptionalism" needs to come to an end.

“美国例外论”这种观点必须被终结掉。

@rogerstarkey5390
US HUBRIS certainly needs to end.

美国的傲慢自大确实到了该结束的时候了。

@ChaohsiangChen
To your dismay, it will not.

令人感到沮丧的是,这种情况恐怕不会发生。

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