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Donald Trump has claimed he could serve a third term as president despite it going against the US constitution. In an interview he said there were ways around the rules and that his supporters wanted him to stay on. But, asks Alex Hannaford, how seriously should we take him and what would it mean for the future of America?

尽管这违反美国宪法，唐纳德·特朗普声称他可以连任第三任期。在一次采访中他表示，有办法绕过规则（如和万斯搭档，在竞选总统成功后因其无法履职把总统职位递补给副总统特朗普等），并称他的支持者希望他继续留任。但亚历克斯·汉纳福特问道：我们应该以何种严肃的程度去看待他的言论？这对美国的未来又意味着什么？
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when Donald Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon said “I’m a firm believer that President Trump will run and win again in 2028,” last week, it should have been a surprise, but wasn’t. “We’re working on it. … We’ll see what the definition of term limit is,”the dishevelled Bannon told NewsNation. It wasn’t the first time he had mentioned it either. The president’s adviser, who went to prison for refusing to testify before a congressional committee about the 6 January insurrection, suggested it in December. Then, he argued that Trump could circumvent the 22nd amendment, which codifies the two-term limit, because the word “consecutive” is not in the text of the document.

上周，唐纳德·特朗普的前首席战略师史蒂夫·班农表示：“我坚信特朗普总统将会在2028年再次参选并获胜。”这本应令人感到惊讶，但实际上并没有。衣衫不整的班农在接受NewsNation采访时说：“我们正在为此努力……我们会看看任期限制的定义是什么。”这也不是他第一次提到这个话题。这位曾因拒绝在国会委员会面前就1月6日国会暴乱事件作证而入狱的总统顾问早在去年12月就提出了这一观点。当时，他认为特朗普可以绕过第22条修正案——该修正案规定了总统任期不得超过两届——因为该文件中并未出现“连续”一词。

Trump has been making his feelings clear too. In an interview with NBC over the weekend, the president said he was “not joking” about seeking a third term and that there are “methods” to staying in office despite a constitutional ban on presidents serving more than two terms in office.

特朗普也明确表达了自己的意向。上周末接受NBC采访时，这位总统表示他关于寻求第三任期的表态"并非玩笑"，尽管宪法禁止总统任职超过两届，但存在"可行方法"规避这一限制继续留任。

He has form. Shortly after his election victory last November, the president told congressional Republicans: “I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out’.”

他早有先例。在去年十一月的大选胜利后不久，这位总统对国会共和党人表示：“我想我不会再参选了，除非你们（选民支持者）说，‘他太出色了，我们得想点别的办法’。”

Then, in January, during the annual House Republican retreat in Florida, he joked with speaker Mike Johnson: “Am I allowed to run again, Mike?” In February, he asked supporters at the White House: “Should I run again? You tell me.” Offhand musings about a third term in office sound less like bluster and more like a blueprint.

然后在今年一月，在佛罗里达州举行的年度众议院共和党闭门会议上，他与议长迈克·约翰逊开玩笑道：“迈克，我还能再参选吗？”到了二月，他在白宫向支持者们问道：“我应该再次参选吗？你们告诉我。”这些关于第三任期的即兴言论听起来不像是夸夸其谈，反而更像是一个计划蓝图。

The safeguard of the two-term president emerged in direct response to Franklin D Roosevelt’s unprecedented four-term presidency during the Thirties and Forties. Before Roosevelt, the informal precedent set by George Washington – stepping down after two terms – had been respected by every president. Today, the 22nd amendment leaves little room for interpretation: “No person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice, and no person who has held the office of president, or acted as president, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected president shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”

两届总统任期的保障措施，是直接针对富兰克林·罗斯福在二十世纪三四十年代空前的四届总统任期而设立的。在罗斯福之前，由乔治·华盛顿所创立的非正式先例——即任职两届后卸任——一直被每位总统所遵守。如今，第22条修正案几乎没有留下多少解释的余地：“任何人当选美国总统不得超过两次；任何人在他人当选总统的任期内担任总统职务或代理总统超过两年者，其当选总统次数不得超过一次。”

Earlier this year, Republican congressman Andy Ogles introduced a House resolution to amend it to enable a president to be elected for up to three terms. Ogles wrote: “President Trump’s decisive leadership stands in stark contrast to the chaos, suffering, and economic decline Americans have endured over the past four years.

今年早些时候，共和党众议员安迪·奥格斯提出一项众议院决议，旨在修改宪法条款，允许总统最多可连任三届。奥格斯在提案中写道："特朗普总统果断的领导力，与过去四年间美国人经历的混乱、苦难和经济衰退形成了强烈对比。"

“He has proven himself to be the only figure in modern history capable of reversing our nation’s decay and restoring America to greatness, and he must be given the time necessary to accomplish that goal. To that end, I am proposing an amendment to the constitution to revise the limitations imposed by the 22nd amendment on presidential terms. This amendment would allow Trump to serve three terms, ensuring that we can sustain the bold leadership our nation so desperately needs.”

"他（特朗普）已证明自己是现代历史上唯一能够扭转国家衰败、让美国重归伟大的人选，因此必须给予他足够时间来实现这一目标。为此，我提议修改宪法，调整第22修正案对总统任期的限制。这项修正案将允许特朗普连任三届，确保我们能够延续国家亟需的强势领导力。"

It certainly wouldn’t surprise constitutional law professor Michele Goodwin if Trump did actively try to seek a third term by any means necessary: “There has already been a display of lawlessness in the executive orders and other actions taken by the Trump administration,” she says.

宪法法律教授米歇尔·古德温对特朗普可能不择手段谋求第三任期并不感到意外。她说："特朗普政府已通过行政令和其他行动展现了对法律的蔑视。"

Indeed, Goodwin, a professor from Georgetown Law, says Trump is making history for things that are anti-democratic and anti-constitutional. “For example when the president said he wants to do away with birthright citizenship, he can’t do away with it with the stroke of his pen. It’s in the American constitution. In the kidnapping of people who have green cards and then secreting them away, making history in mass deportations – these things have been wrongfully reported as if these are just people who are ‘just illegals’, but these are people who are in a legal process for refugee status or towards immigration status. So the fact that they may not have a green card does not mean that they’re not in an appropriate legal status and process.”

这位乔治敦大学法学院的教授指出，特朗普正在以反民主和反宪法的行为创造历史。"例如，当总统声称要废除出生公民权时，他无法仅凭签署文件就实现这一点——这是宪法明文规定的内容。在绑架持有绿卡的民众并秘密关押、大规模驱逐移民等事件中，这些违规行为被错误地报道为针对'非法移民'的举措，但这些人中许多正在合法申请难民身份或移民资格。因此，虽然他们可能未持有绿卡，但并不意味着其法律身份和程序不合法。"

Birthright citizenship is protected in the 14th amendment and courts have blocked its loss for now. A Ronald Reagan-appointed judge issued an emergency order initially halting Trump’s executive order, saying, “I have been on the bench for over four decades. I can’t remember another case where the question presented was as clear.”

出生公民权受到第14修正案的保护，法院目前已阻止了其被剥夺的可能性。一位由罗纳德·里根任命的法官发布了一项紧急命令，暂时叫停了特朗普的行政命令，并表示：“我担任法官已经超过40年，我不记得还有哪个案件所涉及的问题像这次一样明确。”

Other legal scholars have dismissed the idea of running for a third term as impossible, but for Trump’s most ardent supporters, constitutional roadblocks have rarely been a concern. In fact, the mere suggestion that he might seek to extend his grip on power has already energised his base.

其他法律学者则认为竞选第三任期的想法是不可能实现的，但对于特朗普最狂热的支持者来说，宪法障碍很少成为他们的顾虑。事实上，仅仅是他可能寻求延长权力掌控的暗示，就已经激发了他的坚实支持者。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

And there is little political opposition in sight. Robert Reich, who was labour secretary under president Bill Clinton and served in the Ford and Carter administrations, headlined a recent Substack post: Where the HELL are the Democrats? “It should be the Democrats’ moment,” he wrote, “Democrats are nowhere … Almost invisible. They’re squandering this opportunity.” Reich points out that some Democratic operatives are telling Democrats to “play dead”; to give the Trump administration and congressional Republicans who support him “enough rope to figuratively hang themselves”. The midterm elections aren’t until November of 2026. Keep your powder dry. “Rubbish,” says Reich. “Tens of millions of Americans believe there’s no real Democratic opposition to Trump. They feel demoralised and defeated.”

而且目前几乎看不到政治上的反对力量。曾在比尔·克林顿总统任下担任劳工部长，并在福特和卡特政府中任职的罗伯特·赖克，在最近的一篇Substack文章中以醒目的标题写道：“民主党人到底在哪里？”他写道：“这本应是民主党的时刻，但民主党人却无处可寻……几乎隐形。他们正在浪费这个机会。”赖克指出，一些民主党的策略人士正告诉民主党人保持“装死”；这让特朗普政府及支持他的国会共和党人“有足够的绳子来把自己吊死”。中期选举要到2026年11月才会举行，因此有人建议“保存实力”。对此，赖克直言：“胡扯。数千万美国人认为，对特朗普没有真正的民主反对力量。他们感到沮丧和失败。”

Goodwin says the Trump administration is moving in coercive ways into legal spaces. Universities have been pressured to change their curriculum (Columbia University is placing its Middle Eastern, South Asian and African studies departments into “academic receivership” at the insistence of the Trump administration), and this week vice-president JD Vance was put in charge of “removing improper ideology” from the National Museum of African American History and Culture, which comes under the Smithsonian Institute.

古德温表示，特朗普政府正以强制性的方式进入法律领域。大学被施压更改课程（哥伦比亚大学在特朗普政府的要求下，将其中东、南亚和非洲研究系置于“学术托管”之下），而本周副总统JD万斯被指派负责从隶属于史密森尼学会的非裔美国人历史与文化国家博物馆中“清除不恰当的意识形态”。

Whether it is a threat against law schools, or banning major law firms who have worked for his “enemies” from receiving government contracts, as of this month there are now 60 universities “under investigation” by Trump’s Department of Education “for antisemitic discrimination and harassment”.

无论是威胁法学院，还是禁止为他的“敌人”工作过的大型律师事务所获得政府合同，截至本月，已有60所大学因“反犹太歧视和骚扰”而受到特朗普管辖下的教育部的“调查”。

“When people feel threatened, as some people are,” Goodwin says, “they begin making concessions – unnecessary concessions.” In the past, she says, we could rely on the unbiased, fair judiciary to take care of things, but even successful lawsuits hold little weight with the new administration. “The difference now is there’s a certain level of defiance [on the part of the Trump administration]. And that becomes a problem.”

古德温说：“当人们感到受到威胁时，就像有些人现在这样，他们会开始做出让步——这是一种不必要的让步。”她表示，过去我们可以依赖公正、公平的司法体系来解决问题，但目前即使成功的诉讼对新政府也几乎没有影响力。“现在的不同之处在于，特朗普政府表现出对司法判决一定程度的蔑视。而这成为一个问题。”

A house set aflame can be decimated in no time ... This dismantling, the firing of people, the gutting of various institutions, may take decades in some instances to rebuild and to restore.

一场大火可以瞬间摧毁一栋房子……这种拆解、裁员以及对各种机构的掏空，可能需要数十年的时间才能重建和恢复。

Michele Goodwin：Law professors are fearful, she says. “There are those in the legal profession who saw in the first week of his presidency there had already been sufficient unconstitutional executive orders that caused concern that there was a crisis of democracy.” With the help of his henchman Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency, Trump is also attempting to shut down agencies created by Congress, placing 4,200 staff at the Agency for International Development on leave in February, and firing 1,600 from their jobs. Lawyers said Congress would be able to stop doge but that clearly didn’t happen. “There are people afraid right now.”

米歇尔·古德温表示，法学教授们感到担忧。“法律界的一些人士在特朗普总统任职期的第一周就已看到，他已经发布了足够多的违宪行政命令，这引发了人们对民主危机的担忧。”在埃隆·马斯克（他的帮手）和“政府效率部”的协助下，特朗普还试图关闭由国会创建的机构，比如今年2月让美国国际开发署的4200名员工被迫休假，并解雇了其中的1600人。律师们曾表示国会能够阻止这些行为，但显然并未成功。“现在有很多人对此感到害怕。”
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

The problem, she says, is “it’s much easier to destroy something than it is to build it. A house set aflame can be decimated in no time. And it’s not just about recreating the physical structure. It’s the character. It’s remembering how people who respected each other worked together. This dismantling, the firing of people, the gutting of various institutions, may take decades in some instances to rebuild and to restore. And it will mean a commitment from our government to do so at a time when the government will be economically distressed.”

她指出，问题在于，“摧毁某样东西远比建造它容易得多。一栋房子一旦起火，可能瞬间化为灰烬。而这不仅仅是重建物理结构的问题，还包括其内在特质——那些曾经彼此尊重并合作共事的人们要如何重新找回过去那种关系。这种拆解、裁员以及对各种机构的掏空，在某些情况下可能需要数十年的时间才能重建和恢复。而这也意味着，我们的政府需要在经济困境中承诺投入资源来完成这一任务。”

Goodwin says the US is in a “thought experiment” right now. She says Steve Bannon spoke a while back about “flooding the zone”. Bannon was talking to writer Michael Lewis in 2018 when he said: “The Democrats don’t matter. The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with s***.”

古德温说，美国目前正处于一种“思想实验”中。她提到史蒂夫·班农不久前谈到了“信息轰炸区”的概念。班农在2018年与作家迈克尔·刘易斯对话时曾说：“民主党无关紧要，真正的对手是媒体。而对付他们的办法就是用垃圾信息淹没他们。”

Goodwin reckons there’s a psychological component to this. “One analogy that comes to mind is domestic violence. In a family environment where somebody is flooding the zone with physical and mental abuse – various forms of coercion so you don’t know what to expect when that person comes home at night – it’s destabilising; you’re fearful; you’re so overwhelmed by it. But the overwhelming aspect of it works – and that’s what it’s intended to do. [What Trump is doing] is meant to destabilise people; to cause a kind of paralysis. People are so overwhelmed they lose sight of what to work on, what to do.”

古德温认为这其中存在心理层面的因素。“我想到的一个类比是家庭暴力。在一个家庭环境中，如果有人通过身体和精神虐待、各种形式的胁迫来‘信息轰炸’你——让你无法预知这个人晚上回家时会发生什么——这是令人不安的；你会感到恐惧，被压得喘不过气来。而这种压倒性的策略恰恰奏效了——这就是它的目的所在。特朗普正在做的事情旨在让人们感到不安，造成一种瘫痪状态。人们被压得喘不过气来，以至于忘记了该做什么，该如何应对。”

While Goodwin calls the current situation “dystopic”, she believes help might come from a somewhat unlikely source – the Supreme Court. At the beginning of the month, chief justice John Roberts and justice Amy Coney Barrett, nominated by Trump during his first term, joined the liberal wing of the court in denying the administration’s efforts to freeze $2bn to pay foreign aid organisations for work they had already completed. In response, alt-right Maga activist Jack Posobiec said that Barrett was a DEI hire.

尽管古德温称当前局势为“反乌托邦式”，但她认为帮助可能来自一个不太可能的来源——最高法院。本月初，首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨和特朗普第一任期内提名的大法官艾米·科尼·巴雷特加入了最高法院自由派阵营，驳回了政府试图冻结20亿美元支付给已完成工作的外国援助组织的努力。作为回应，另类右翼Maga活动家杰克·波索贝茨称巴雷特获得职位是基于“多元化、公平性和包容性（DEI）任命”。

Those who had worried the Supreme Court’s lurch to the right, and its contentious ruling that presidents are immune from criminal liability for actions taken in office, would mean Trump would be given carte blanche to run roughshod over the constitution might be proved wrong. In mid-March, Roberts again defied Trump in his calls to remove a judge, in what the Associated Press called “an extraordinary display of conflict between the executive and judiciary branches”.

那些曾担心最高法院急剧右倾，以及其争议性裁决（即总统在职期间的行为享有刑事豁免权）会赋予特朗普肆意践踏宪法的“空白支票”的人，可能会发现自己错了。3月中旬，罗伯茨再次违背特朗普的意愿，拒绝了他要求撤换一名法官的呼吁。美联社称此为“行政与司法部门之间的一次非同寻常的冲突展示”。

In a democracy under siege, the Supreme Court is the last line of defence. The question is, considering its make-up, whether it will be up to the task hit after hit. Or, when the time comes for a third-term run, will so much have gone up in flames that people will forget where the hosepipe is or even where to point it?

在遭受围困的民主制度中，最高法院是最后一道防线。问题是，考虑到其构成，它是否能够一次又一次地胜任这一任务？或者，当第三任期竞选到来之前，最高法院是否就已经被燃烧殆尽，以至于人们甚至忘记了灭火器在哪里，更不用说如何使用它了？