英国预算责任办公室官员警告说，英国对移民的依赖存在“严重问题”
正文翻译
‘Serious problems’ with UK’s reliance on migration, warns OBR official
-Labour urged to focus on getting Britons back to work to grow the economy
英国预算责任办公室官员警告说，英国对移民的依赖存在“严重问题”
——工党敦促将重点放在让英国人重返工作岗位以促进经济增长上
(David Miles, an executive at the Office for Budget Responsibility, said tackling Britain’s growing welfare bill should be a priority.)
（预算责任办公室的高管戴维·迈尔斯表示，解决英国日益增长的福利账单应该是当务之急。）
新闻：
Immigration is creating “serious problems” for public services and living standards, a senior official at the Government’s fiscal watchdog has warned.
英国政府财政监督机构的一位高级官员警告称，移民正在给公共服务和生活水平带来“严重问题”。
David Miles, an executive at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), said Labour must prioritise getting Britons back to work instead of relying on overseas workers to grow the economy.
预算责任办公室的执行官大卫·迈尔斯表示，工党必须优先考虑让英国人重返工作岗位，而不是依赖海外工人来促进经济增长。
Only by achieving this will Sir Keir Starmer be able to slash the welfare bill and tackle the country’s “explosive” debt pile.
只有实现这一目标，基尔·斯塔默才能大幅削减福利支出，并解决该国“爆炸性”的债务问题。
The economics professor, who has also served on the Bank of England’s interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, said the UK was already on course to become the most populous country in Europe by the middle of this century.
这位经济学教授还在英国央行制定利率的货币政策委员会任职。他表示，到本世纪中叶，英国将成为欧洲人口最多的国家。
He added that depending on an increasing population to expand the economy “could not be sustained”, as migrants themselves use schools, hospitals and other public services as they get older, have children and become eligible to claim benefits.
他补充说，依靠不断增长的人口来扩大经济“是不可能持续的”，因为移民自己也会随着年龄的增长、生育孩子并有资格申领福利而使用学校、医院和其他公共服务。
Writing in an essay published by the Common Good Foundation, Mr Miles said: “Immigration – which primarily involves those of working age who are many years away from retirement – both delays the impact of the ageing of the population and is the driver of population growth.
迈尔斯在共同利益基金会发表的一篇文章中写道：“移民——主要是那些离退休还有很多年的工作年龄的人——既推迟了人口老龄化的影响，也是人口增长的动力。
“Some conclude from this that a faster rise in the population ... will be beneficial in alleviating acute underlying fiscal pressures.
“有人由此得出结论，人口的快速增长……将有利于缓解严重的潜在财政压力。
“But, even setting aside the fact that it is GDP per capita that matters for average standards of living – and growth in population does not obviously boost it – there are serious problems with the idea that faster population growth can consistently alleviate fiscal problems.”
“但是，即使撇开人均GDP对平均生活水平很重要（以及人口增长并没有明显提高生活水平）这一事实，这种认为更快的人口增长可以持续缓解财政问题的想法也存在严重问题。”
Mr Miles also suggested that tackling worklessness among working-age Britons was more important than attracting the most highly paid migrants to the UK.
迈尔斯还表示，解决处于工作年龄的英国人的失业问题，比吸引高薪移民到英国更重要。
Almost the entire rise in economic inactivity since Covid has been driven by people born in the UK, many of whom are also claiming sickness benefits that do not require them to look for work.
自新冠疫情以来，几乎所有经济非活动人口的增长都是由在英国出生的人推动的，其中许多人还申请了不需要找工作的疾病福利。
Mr Miles said: “The fiscal benefits of raising the incomes of those who are born in the UK and who might be on a trajectory of consistently below average wages are as great as the benefits of having more people come and stay in the UK with average or, especially, well above average earnings.”
迈尔斯表示：“提高那些在英国出生、工资可能一直低于平均水平的人的收入所带来的财政效益，与让更多收入平均或尤其是远高于平均水平的人来到英国并留在英国所带来的效益一样大。”
It comes after the OBR has faced scrutiny for overstating the economic benefits of migration, with Morgan McSweeney, Sir Keir’s chief of staff, reportedly concerned that the watchdog does not properly account for the burden on public services.
此前，英国预算责任办公室因夸大移民的经济效益而面临审查。据报道，斯塔默的幕僚长摩根·麦克斯威尼担心，该机构没有恰当地考虑到移民给公共服务带来的负担。
The watchdog has previously admitted that low-paid migrant workers are a drain on the public purse – costing taxpayers more than £150,000 each by the time they hit state pension age.
该监管机构此前曾承认，低收入的移民工人是公共财政的消耗——到他们达到领取国家养老金的年龄时，纳税人每人要花费超过15万英镑。
However, calls for restrictions on overseas workers are likely to be uncomfortable reading for Rachel Reeves, with Treasury officials warning successive chancellors that a big reduction in migration would substantially reduce the Government’s headroom.
然而，呼吁限制海外工人可能会让雷切尔·里夫斯感到不舒服，财政部官员警告历任财政大臣，大幅减少移民将大大减少政府的回旋余地。
Ms Reeves is already likely to have to raise taxes by £20bn this autumn, following a series of about-turns on welfare and winter fuel payments.
今年秋天，里夫斯很可能不得不增加200亿英镑的税收，此前她在福利和冬季燃料补贴方面做出了一系列转变。
‘Substantial’ burden
Official data shows that immigration has fuelled the two biggest population increases in peacetime.
“巨大”负担
官方数据显示，移民推动了和平时期两次最大的人口增长。
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has found that the population of England and Wales grew by more than 700,000 in the year to June 2024 to nearly 62 million.
英国国家统计局发现，在截至2024年6月的一年里，英格兰和威尔士的人口增长了70多万，达到近6200万。
This is the second-biggest annual jump since records began in 1949 and only beaten by the 800,000 rise in the population in the previous 12 months.
这是自1949年有记录以来的第二大年度增长，仅次于之前12个月的80万人口增长。
This stemmed from record rises in net migration – the number of people entering the UK minus those leaving.
这源于净移民人数的创纪录增长——即进入英国的人数减去离开英国的人数。
Mr Miles said continuing these trends was unsustainable because it would pile a “substantial” burden on the public finances.
迈尔斯表示，继续这种趋势是不可持续的，因为这将给公共财政带来“巨大”负担。
He highlighted that even if all the future migrants arriving in the UK were all aged 24 and would not reach retirement for more than four decades, the population would have to rise by 20m to balance the split between pensioners and workers.
他强调，即使未来抵达英国的所有移民都是24岁，而且40多年后才退休，英国人口也必须增加2000万，才能平衡领取养老金者和工人之间的差距。
He said: “Twenty million extra young people would need to arrive in the UK over the next 40 years to stabilise the dependency ratio at its current level. That would imply a UK population of around 100 million by 2064.”
他说：“在未来40年里，英国需要新增2000万年轻人，才能将抚养比率稳定在目前的水平。”这意味着到2064年英国人口将达到1亿左右。”
Worklessness crisis
OBR analysis published last year showed the average low-earner who comes to Britain aged 25 costs the Government more overall than they pay in from the moment they arrive.
失业危机
英国预算责任办公室去年发布的分析报告显示，平均25岁来到英国的低收入者给政府带来的总体成本超过了他们从抵达英国那一刻起所缴纳的费用。
The cumulative bill rises to an estimated £150,000 each by the time they can claim the state pension at 66, according to the watchdog.
据监管机构称，到他们66岁申请国家养老金时，累积账单估计会上升到每人15万英镑。
This is because low-paid migrants, who the OBR assumes earn half the average wage, demand more from public services compared to what they contribute in tax.
这是因为低收入移民（预算责任办公室认为他们的收入是平均工资的一半）对公共服务的要求比他们贡献的税收要高。
Mr Miles suggested that tackling the substantial rise in young Britons claiming they are too sick to even look for work would be more beneficial for the public purse.
迈尔斯建议，解决越来越多的英国年轻人声称他们病得太重，甚至找不到工作的问题，对公共财政更有利。
He said: “The fiscal benefits of helping people, especially young people who potentially have many years of work ahead of them, back into employment are substantial.
他说：“帮助人们，特别是那些有可能工作多年的年轻人，重新就业的财政效益是巨大的。
“There is a great deal of evidence that mental health in particular is typically improved by being in work. And mental health problems have been a very significant factor behind the recent rise in illness-related inactivity.”
“有大量证据表明，工作通常会改善心理健康状况。而心理健康问题是最近与疾病相关的不活动增加的一个非常重要的因素。”
Calls for lower migration come amid growing scrutiny of the UK’s benefits bill, particularly after Labour watered down welfare reforms earlier this year following a backbench rebellion.
在呼吁减少移民之际，英国的福利法案正受到越来越多的审视，尤其是在今年早些时候工党在后座议员的反对下淡化了福利改革之后。
The benefits bill for people on sickness or disability benefits is currently on course to hit £100bn by the end of the decade.
到2020年，领取疾病或残疾津贴的人的福利账单将达到1000亿英镑。
Mr Miles said: “The higher population route to fiscal sustainability by slowing the ageing of the population is uncertain. Today’s young people are tomorrow’s old people, so fiscal benefits fade. And the rise in the population needed to completely offset ageing in demographic structure is very great and gets bigger over time. It could not be sustained.”
迈尔斯表示：“通过减缓人口老龄化来实现财政可持续性的人口增加路线尚不确定。今天的年轻人就是明天的老年人，所以财政福利会逐渐消失。完全抵消人口结构老龄化所需要的人口增长是非常巨大的，而且随着时间的推移会越来越大。这种情况无法持续下去。”
A Treasury spokesman said: “Under the last government, Britain’s economy became addicted to cheap overseas labour and relaxed visa controls that saw net migration explode to nearly one million...
一位财政部发言人表示：“在上一届政府执政期间，英国经济对廉价海外劳动力上瘾，并放松了签证管制，导致净移民激增至近100万……
“We’ve rolled up our sleeves to fix this broken system and deliver a controlled, sextive and fair migration that rewards contribution, restores control of our borders and gives communities greater confidence that Britain is working in their favour”.
“我们已经卷起袖子修复这个破损的体系，提供一种有控制的、有选择性的、公平的移民，奖励贡献，恢复对我们边界的控制，让社区更有信心，相信英国正在为他们服务。”
-Labour urged to focus on getting Britons back to work to grow the economy
英国预算责任办公室官员警告说，英国对移民的依赖存在“严重问题”
——工党敦促将重点放在让英国人重返工作岗位以促进经济增长上
(David Miles, an executive at the Office for Budget Responsibility, said tackling Britain’s growing welfare bill should be a priority.)
（预算责任办公室的高管戴维·迈尔斯表示，解决英国日益增长的福利账单应该是当务之急。）
新闻：
Immigration is creating “serious problems” for public services and living standards, a senior official at the Government’s fiscal watchdog has warned.
英国政府财政监督机构的一位高级官员警告称，移民正在给公共服务和生活水平带来“严重问题”。
David Miles, an executive at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), said Labour must prioritise getting Britons back to work instead of relying on overseas workers to grow the economy.
预算责任办公室的执行官大卫·迈尔斯表示，工党必须优先考虑让英国人重返工作岗位，而不是依赖海外工人来促进经济增长。
Only by achieving this will Sir Keir Starmer be able to slash the welfare bill and tackle the country’s “explosive” debt pile.
只有实现这一目标，基尔·斯塔默才能大幅削减福利支出，并解决该国“爆炸性”的债务问题。
The economics professor, who has also served on the Bank of England’s interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, said the UK was already on course to become the most populous country in Europe by the middle of this century.
这位经济学教授还在英国央行制定利率的货币政策委员会任职。他表示，到本世纪中叶，英国将成为欧洲人口最多的国家。
He added that depending on an increasing population to expand the economy “could not be sustained”, as migrants themselves use schools, hospitals and other public services as they get older, have children and become eligible to claim benefits.
他补充说，依靠不断增长的人口来扩大经济“是不可能持续的”，因为移民自己也会随着年龄的增长、生育孩子并有资格申领福利而使用学校、医院和其他公共服务。
Writing in an essay published by the Common Good Foundation, Mr Miles said: “Immigration – which primarily involves those of working age who are many years away from retirement – both delays the impact of the ageing of the population and is the driver of population growth.
迈尔斯在共同利益基金会发表的一篇文章中写道：“移民——主要是那些离退休还有很多年的工作年龄的人——既推迟了人口老龄化的影响，也是人口增长的动力。
“Some conclude from this that a faster rise in the population ... will be beneficial in alleviating acute underlying fiscal pressures.
“有人由此得出结论，人口的快速增长……将有利于缓解严重的潜在财政压力。
“But, even setting aside the fact that it is GDP per capita that matters for average standards of living – and growth in population does not obviously boost it – there are serious problems with the idea that faster population growth can consistently alleviate fiscal problems.”
“但是，即使撇开人均GDP对平均生活水平很重要（以及人口增长并没有明显提高生活水平）这一事实，这种认为更快的人口增长可以持续缓解财政问题的想法也存在严重问题。”
Mr Miles also suggested that tackling worklessness among working-age Britons was more important than attracting the most highly paid migrants to the UK.
迈尔斯还表示，解决处于工作年龄的英国人的失业问题，比吸引高薪移民到英国更重要。
Almost the entire rise in economic inactivity since Covid has been driven by people born in the UK, many of whom are also claiming sickness benefits that do not require them to look for work.
自新冠疫情以来，几乎所有经济非活动人口的增长都是由在英国出生的人推动的，其中许多人还申请了不需要找工作的疾病福利。
Mr Miles said: “The fiscal benefits of raising the incomes of those who are born in the UK and who might be on a trajectory of consistently below average wages are as great as the benefits of having more people come and stay in the UK with average or, especially, well above average earnings.”
迈尔斯表示：“提高那些在英国出生、工资可能一直低于平均水平的人的收入所带来的财政效益，与让更多收入平均或尤其是远高于平均水平的人来到英国并留在英国所带来的效益一样大。”
It comes after the OBR has faced scrutiny for overstating the economic benefits of migration, with Morgan McSweeney, Sir Keir’s chief of staff, reportedly concerned that the watchdog does not properly account for the burden on public services.
此前，英国预算责任办公室因夸大移民的经济效益而面临审查。据报道，斯塔默的幕僚长摩根·麦克斯威尼担心，该机构没有恰当地考虑到移民给公共服务带来的负担。
The watchdog has previously admitted that low-paid migrant workers are a drain on the public purse – costing taxpayers more than £150,000 each by the time they hit state pension age.
该监管机构此前曾承认，低收入的移民工人是公共财政的消耗——到他们达到领取国家养老金的年龄时，纳税人每人要花费超过15万英镑。
However, calls for restrictions on overseas workers are likely to be uncomfortable reading for Rachel Reeves, with Treasury officials warning successive chancellors that a big reduction in migration would substantially reduce the Government’s headroom.
然而，呼吁限制海外工人可能会让雷切尔·里夫斯感到不舒服，财政部官员警告历任财政大臣，大幅减少移民将大大减少政府的回旋余地。
Ms Reeves is already likely to have to raise taxes by £20bn this autumn, following a series of about-turns on welfare and winter fuel payments.
今年秋天，里夫斯很可能不得不增加200亿英镑的税收，此前她在福利和冬季燃料补贴方面做出了一系列转变。
‘Substantial’ burden
Official data shows that immigration has fuelled the two biggest population increases in peacetime.
“巨大”负担
官方数据显示，移民推动了和平时期两次最大的人口增长。
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has found that the population of England and Wales grew by more than 700,000 in the year to June 2024 to nearly 62 million.
英国国家统计局发现，在截至2024年6月的一年里，英格兰和威尔士的人口增长了70多万，达到近6200万。
This is the second-biggest annual jump since records began in 1949 and only beaten by the 800,000 rise in the population in the previous 12 months.
这是自1949年有记录以来的第二大年度增长，仅次于之前12个月的80万人口增长。
This stemmed from record rises in net migration – the number of people entering the UK minus those leaving.
这源于净移民人数的创纪录增长——即进入英国的人数减去离开英国的人数。
Mr Miles said continuing these trends was unsustainable because it would pile a “substantial” burden on the public finances.
迈尔斯表示，继续这种趋势是不可持续的，因为这将给公共财政带来“巨大”负担。
He highlighted that even if all the future migrants arriving in the UK were all aged 24 and would not reach retirement for more than four decades, the population would have to rise by 20m to balance the split between pensioners and workers.
他强调，即使未来抵达英国的所有移民都是24岁，而且40多年后才退休，英国人口也必须增加2000万，才能平衡领取养老金者和工人之间的差距。
He said: “Twenty million extra young people would need to arrive in the UK over the next 40 years to stabilise the dependency ratio at its current level. That would imply a UK population of around 100 million by 2064.”
他说：“在未来40年里，英国需要新增2000万年轻人，才能将抚养比率稳定在目前的水平。”这意味着到2064年英国人口将达到1亿左右。”
Worklessness crisis
OBR analysis published last year showed the average low-earner who comes to Britain aged 25 costs the Government more overall than they pay in from the moment they arrive.
失业危机
英国预算责任办公室去年发布的分析报告显示，平均25岁来到英国的低收入者给政府带来的总体成本超过了他们从抵达英国那一刻起所缴纳的费用。
The cumulative bill rises to an estimated £150,000 each by the time they can claim the state pension at 66, according to the watchdog.
据监管机构称，到他们66岁申请国家养老金时，累积账单估计会上升到每人15万英镑。
This is because low-paid migrants, who the OBR assumes earn half the average wage, demand more from public services compared to what they contribute in tax.
这是因为低收入移民（预算责任办公室认为他们的收入是平均工资的一半）对公共服务的要求比他们贡献的税收要高。
Mr Miles suggested that tackling the substantial rise in young Britons claiming they are too sick to even look for work would be more beneficial for the public purse.
迈尔斯建议，解决越来越多的英国年轻人声称他们病得太重，甚至找不到工作的问题，对公共财政更有利。
He said: “The fiscal benefits of helping people, especially young people who potentially have many years of work ahead of them, back into employment are substantial.
他说：“帮助人们，特别是那些有可能工作多年的年轻人，重新就业的财政效益是巨大的。
“There is a great deal of evidence that mental health in particular is typically improved by being in work. And mental health problems have been a very significant factor behind the recent rise in illness-related inactivity.”
“有大量证据表明，工作通常会改善心理健康状况。而心理健康问题是最近与疾病相关的不活动增加的一个非常重要的因素。”
Calls for lower migration come amid growing scrutiny of the UK’s benefits bill, particularly after Labour watered down welfare reforms earlier this year following a backbench rebellion.
在呼吁减少移民之际，英国的福利法案正受到越来越多的审视，尤其是在今年早些时候工党在后座议员的反对下淡化了福利改革之后。
The benefits bill for people on sickness or disability benefits is currently on course to hit £100bn by the end of the decade.
到2020年，领取疾病或残疾津贴的人的福利账单将达到1000亿英镑。
Mr Miles said: “The higher population route to fiscal sustainability by slowing the ageing of the population is uncertain. Today’s young people are tomorrow’s old people, so fiscal benefits fade. And the rise in the population needed to completely offset ageing in demographic structure is very great and gets bigger over time. It could not be sustained.”
迈尔斯表示：“通过减缓人口老龄化来实现财政可持续性的人口增加路线尚不确定。今天的年轻人就是明天的老年人，所以财政福利会逐渐消失。完全抵消人口结构老龄化所需要的人口增长是非常巨大的，而且随着时间的推移会越来越大。这种情况无法持续下去。”
A Treasury spokesman said: “Under the last government, Britain’s economy became addicted to cheap overseas labour and relaxed visa controls that saw net migration explode to nearly one million...
一位财政部发言人表示：“在上一届政府执政期间，英国经济对廉价海外劳动力上瘾，并放松了签证管制，导致净移民激增至近100万……
“We’ve rolled up our sleeves to fix this broken system and deliver a controlled, sextive and fair migration that rewards contribution, restores control of our borders and gives communities greater confidence that Britain is working in their favour”.
“我们已经卷起袖子修复这个破损的体系，提供一种有控制的、有选择性的、公平的移民，奖励贡献，恢复对我们边界的控制，让社区更有信心，相信英国正在为他们服务。”
评论翻译
‘Serious problems’ with UK’s reliance on migration, warns OBR official
-Labour urged to focus on getting Britons back to work to grow the economy
英国预算责任办公室官员警告说，英国对移民的依赖存在“严重问题”
——工党敦促将重点放在让英国人重返工作岗位以促进经济增长上
(David Miles, an executive at the Office for Budget Responsibility, said tackling Britain’s growing welfare bill should be a priority.)
（预算责任办公室的高管戴维·迈尔斯表示，解决英国日益增长的福利账单应该是当务之急。）
新闻：
Immigration is creating “serious problems” for public services and living standards, a senior official at the Government’s fiscal watchdog has warned.
英国政府财政监督机构的一位高级官员警告称，移民正在给公共服务和生活水平带来“严重问题”。
David Miles, an executive at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), said Labour must prioritise getting Britons back to work instead of relying on overseas workers to grow the economy.
预算责任办公室的执行官大卫·迈尔斯表示，工党必须优先考虑让英国人重返工作岗位，而不是依赖海外工人来促进经济增长。
Only by achieving this will Sir Keir Starmer be able to slash the welfare bill and tackle the country’s “explosive” debt pile.
只有实现这一目标，基尔·斯塔默才能大幅削减福利支出，并解决该国“爆炸性”的债务问题。
The economics professor, who has also served on the Bank of England’s interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, said the UK was already on course to become the most populous country in Europe by the middle of this century.
这位经济学教授还在英国央行制定利率的货币政策委员会任职。他表示，到本世纪中叶，英国将成为欧洲人口最多的国家。
He added that depending on an increasing population to expand the economy “could not be sustained”, as migrants themselves use schools, hospitals and other public services as they get older, have children and become eligible to claim benefits.
他补充说，依靠不断增长的人口来扩大经济“是不可能持续的”，因为移民自己也会随着年龄的增长、生育孩子并有资格申领福利而使用学校、医院和其他公共服务。
Writing in an essay published by the Common Good Foundation, Mr Miles said: “Immigration – which primarily involves those of working age who are many years away from retirement – both delays the impact of the ageing of the population and is the driver of population growth.
迈尔斯在共同利益基金会发表的一篇文章中写道：“移民——主要是那些离退休还有很多年的工作年龄的人——既推迟了人口老龄化的影响，也是人口增长的动力。
“Some conclude from this that a faster rise in the population ... will be beneficial in alleviating acute underlying fiscal pressures.
“有人由此得出结论，人口的快速增长……将有利于缓解严重的潜在财政压力。
“But, even setting aside the fact that it is GDP per capita that matters for average standards of living – and growth in population does not obviously boost it – there are serious problems with the idea that faster population growth can consistently alleviate fiscal problems.”
“但是，即使撇开人均GDP对平均生活水平很重要（以及人口增长并没有明显提高生活水平）这一事实，这种认为更快的人口增长可以持续缓解财政问题的想法也存在严重问题。”
Mr Miles also suggested that tackling worklessness among working-age Britons was more important than attracting the most highly paid migrants to the UK.
迈尔斯还表示，解决处于工作年龄的英国人的失业问题，比吸引高薪移民到英国更重要。
Almost the entire rise in economic inactivity since Covid has been driven by people born in the UK, many of whom are also claiming sickness benefits that do not require them to look for work.
自新冠疫情以来，几乎所有经济非活动人口的增长都是由在英国出生的人推动的，其中许多人还申请了不需要找工作的疾病福利。
Mr Miles said: “The fiscal benefits of raising the incomes of those who are born in the UK and who might be on a trajectory of consistently below average wages are as great as the benefits of having more people come and stay in the UK with average or, especially, well above average earnings.”
迈尔斯表示：“提高那些在英国出生、工资可能一直低于平均水平的人的收入所带来的财政效益，与让更多收入平均或尤其是远高于平均水平的人来到英国并留在英国所带来的效益一样大。”
It comes after the OBR has faced scrutiny for overstating the economic benefits of migration, with Morgan McSweeney, Sir Keir’s chief of staff, reportedly concerned that the watchdog does not properly account for the burden on public services.
此前，英国预算责任办公室因夸大移民的经济效益而面临审查。据报道，斯塔默的幕僚长摩根·麦克斯威尼担心，该机构没有恰当地考虑到移民给公共服务带来的负担。
The watchdog has previously admitted that low-paid migrant workers are a drain on the public purse – costing taxpayers more than £150,000 each by the time they hit state pension age.
该监管机构此前曾承认，低收入的移民工人是公共财政的消耗——到他们达到领取国家养老金的年龄时，纳税人每人要花费超过15万英镑。
However, calls for restrictions on overseas workers are likely to be uncomfortable reading for Rachel Reeves, with Treasury officials warning successive chancellors that a big reduction in migration would substantially reduce the Government’s headroom.
然而，呼吁限制海外工人可能会让雷切尔·里夫斯感到不舒服，财政部官员警告历任财政大臣，大幅减少移民将大大减少政府的回旋余地。
Ms Reeves is already likely to have to raise taxes by £20bn this autumn, following a series of about-turns on welfare and winter fuel payments.
今年秋天，里夫斯很可能不得不增加200亿英镑的税收，此前她在福利和冬季燃料补贴方面做出了一系列转变。
‘Substantial’ burden
Official data shows that immigration has fuelled the two biggest population increases in peacetime.
“巨大”负担
官方数据显示，移民推动了和平时期两次最大的人口增长。
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has found that the population of England and Wales grew by more than 700,000 in the year to June 2024 to nearly 62 million.
英国国家统计局发现，在截至2024年6月的一年里，英格兰和威尔士的人口增长了70多万，达到近6200万。
This is the second-biggest annual jump since records began in 1949 and only beaten by the 800,000 rise in the population in the previous 12 months.
这是自1949年有记录以来的第二大年度增长，仅次于之前12个月的80万人口增长。
This stemmed from record rises in net migration – the number of people entering the UK minus those leaving.
这源于净移民人数的创纪录增长——即进入英国的人数减去离开英国的人数。
Mr Miles said continuing these trends was unsustainable because it would pile a “substantial” burden on the public finances.
迈尔斯表示，继续这种趋势是不可持续的，因为这将给公共财政带来“巨大”负担。
He highlighted that even if all the future migrants arriving in the UK were all aged 24 and would not reach retirement for more than four decades, the population would have to rise by 20m to balance the split between pensioners and workers.
他强调，即使未来抵达英国的所有移民都是24岁，而且40多年后才退休，英国人口也必须增加2000万，才能平衡领取养老金者和工人之间的差距。
He said: “Twenty million extra young people would need to arrive in the UK over the next 40 years to stabilise the dependency ratio at its current level. That would imply a UK population of around 100 million by 2064.”
他说：“在未来40年里，英国需要新增2000万年轻人，才能将抚养比率稳定在目前的水平。”这意味着到2064年英国人口将达到1亿左右。”
Worklessness crisis
OBR analysis published last year showed the average low-earner who comes to Britain aged 25 costs the Government more overall than they pay in from the moment they arrive.
失业危机
英国预算责任办公室去年发布的分析报告显示，平均25岁来到英国的低收入者给政府带来的总体成本超过了他们从抵达英国那一刻起所缴纳的费用。
The cumulative bill rises to an estimated £150,000 each by the time they can claim the state pension at 66, according to the watchdog.
据监管机构称，到他们66岁申请国家养老金时，累积账单估计会上升到每人15万英镑。
This is because low-paid migrants, who the OBR assumes earn half the average wage, demand more from public services compared to what they contribute in tax.
这是因为低收入移民（预算责任办公室认为他们的收入是平均工资的一半）对公共服务的要求比他们贡献的税收要高。
Mr Miles suggested that tackling the substantial rise in young Britons claiming they are too sick to even look for work would be more beneficial for the public purse.
迈尔斯建议，解决越来越多的英国年轻人声称他们病得太重，甚至找不到工作的问题，对公共财政更有利。
He said: “The fiscal benefits of helping people, especially young people who potentially have many years of work ahead of them, back into employment are substantial.
他说：“帮助人们，特别是那些有可能工作多年的年轻人，重新就业的财政效益是巨大的。
“There is a great deal of evidence that mental health in particular is typically improved by being in work. And mental health problems have been a very significant factor behind the recent rise in illness-related inactivity.”
“有大量证据表明，工作通常会改善心理健康状况。而心理健康问题是最近与疾病相关的不活动增加的一个非常重要的因素。”
Calls for lower migration come amid growing scrutiny of the UK’s benefits bill, particularly after Labour watered down welfare reforms earlier this year following a backbench rebellion.
在呼吁减少移民之际，英国的福利法案正受到越来越多的审视，尤其是在今年早些时候工党在后座议员的反对下淡化了福利改革之后。
The benefits bill for people on sickness or disability benefits is currently on course to hit £100bn by the end of the decade.
到2020年，领取疾病或残疾津贴的人的福利账单将达到1000亿英镑。
Mr Miles said: “The higher population route to fiscal sustainability by slowing the ageing of the population is uncertain. Today’s young people are tomorrow’s old people, so fiscal benefits fade. And the rise in the population needed to completely offset ageing in demographic structure is very great and gets bigger over time. It could not be sustained.”
迈尔斯表示：“通过减缓人口老龄化来实现财政可持续性的人口增加路线尚不确定。今天的年轻人就是明天的老年人，所以财政福利会逐渐消失。完全抵消人口结构老龄化所需要的人口增长是非常巨大的，而且随着时间的推移会越来越大。这种情况无法持续下去。”
A Treasury spokesman said: “Under the last government, Britain’s economy became addicted to cheap overseas labour and relaxed visa controls that saw net migration explode to nearly one million...
一位财政部发言人表示：“在上一届政府执政期间，英国经济对廉价海外劳动力上瘾，并放松了签证管制，导致净移民激增至近100万……
“We’ve rolled up our sleeves to fix this broken system and deliver a controlled, sextive and fair migration that rewards contribution, restores control of our borders and gives communities greater confidence that Britain is working in their favour”.
“我们已经卷起袖子修复这个破损的体系，提供一种有控制的、有选择性的、公平的移民，奖励贡献，恢复对我们边界的控制，让社区更有信心，相信英国正在为他们服务。”
-Labour urged to focus on getting Britons back to work to grow the economy
英国预算责任办公室官员警告说，英国对移民的依赖存在“严重问题”
——工党敦促将重点放在让英国人重返工作岗位以促进经济增长上
(David Miles, an executive at the Office for Budget Responsibility, said tackling Britain’s growing welfare bill should be a priority.)
（预算责任办公室的高管戴维·迈尔斯表示，解决英国日益增长的福利账单应该是当务之急。）
新闻：
Immigration is creating “serious problems” for public services and living standards, a senior official at the Government’s fiscal watchdog has warned.
英国政府财政监督机构的一位高级官员警告称，移民正在给公共服务和生活水平带来“严重问题”。
David Miles, an executive at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), said Labour must prioritise getting Britons back to work instead of relying on overseas workers to grow the economy.
预算责任办公室的执行官大卫·迈尔斯表示，工党必须优先考虑让英国人重返工作岗位，而不是依赖海外工人来促进经济增长。
Only by achieving this will Sir Keir Starmer be able to slash the welfare bill and tackle the country’s “explosive” debt pile.
只有实现这一目标，基尔·斯塔默才能大幅削减福利支出，并解决该国“爆炸性”的债务问题。
The economics professor, who has also served on the Bank of England’s interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, said the UK was already on course to become the most populous country in Europe by the middle of this century.
这位经济学教授还在英国央行制定利率的货币政策委员会任职。他表示，到本世纪中叶，英国将成为欧洲人口最多的国家。
He added that depending on an increasing population to expand the economy “could not be sustained”, as migrants themselves use schools, hospitals and other public services as they get older, have children and become eligible to claim benefits.
他补充说，依靠不断增长的人口来扩大经济“是不可能持续的”，因为移民自己也会随着年龄的增长、生育孩子并有资格申领福利而使用学校、医院和其他公共服务。
Writing in an essay published by the Common Good Foundation, Mr Miles said: “Immigration – which primarily involves those of working age who are many years away from retirement – both delays the impact of the ageing of the population and is the driver of population growth.
迈尔斯在共同利益基金会发表的一篇文章中写道：“移民——主要是那些离退休还有很多年的工作年龄的人——既推迟了人口老龄化的影响，也是人口增长的动力。
“Some conclude from this that a faster rise in the population ... will be beneficial in alleviating acute underlying fiscal pressures.
“有人由此得出结论，人口的快速增长……将有利于缓解严重的潜在财政压力。
“But, even setting aside the fact that it is GDP per capita that matters for average standards of living – and growth in population does not obviously boost it – there are serious problems with the idea that faster population growth can consistently alleviate fiscal problems.”
“但是，即使撇开人均GDP对平均生活水平很重要（以及人口增长并没有明显提高生活水平）这一事实，这种认为更快的人口增长可以持续缓解财政问题的想法也存在严重问题。”
Mr Miles also suggested that tackling worklessness among working-age Britons was more important than attracting the most highly paid migrants to the UK.
迈尔斯还表示，解决处于工作年龄的英国人的失业问题，比吸引高薪移民到英国更重要。
Almost the entire rise in economic inactivity since Covid has been driven by people born in the UK, many of whom are also claiming sickness benefits that do not require them to look for work.
自新冠疫情以来，几乎所有经济非活动人口的增长都是由在英国出生的人推动的，其中许多人还申请了不需要找工作的疾病福利。
Mr Miles said: “The fiscal benefits of raising the incomes of those who are born in the UK and who might be on a trajectory of consistently below average wages are as great as the benefits of having more people come and stay in the UK with average or, especially, well above average earnings.”
迈尔斯表示：“提高那些在英国出生、工资可能一直低于平均水平的人的收入所带来的财政效益，与让更多收入平均或尤其是远高于平均水平的人来到英国并留在英国所带来的效益一样大。”
It comes after the OBR has faced scrutiny for overstating the economic benefits of migration, with Morgan McSweeney, Sir Keir’s chief of staff, reportedly concerned that the watchdog does not properly account for the burden on public services.
此前，英国预算责任办公室因夸大移民的经济效益而面临审查。据报道，斯塔默的幕僚长摩根·麦克斯威尼担心，该机构没有恰当地考虑到移民给公共服务带来的负担。
The watchdog has previously admitted that low-paid migrant workers are a drain on the public purse – costing taxpayers more than £150,000 each by the time they hit state pension age.
该监管机构此前曾承认，低收入的移民工人是公共财政的消耗——到他们达到领取国家养老金的年龄时，纳税人每人要花费超过15万英镑。
However, calls for restrictions on overseas workers are likely to be uncomfortable reading for Rachel Reeves, with Treasury officials warning successive chancellors that a big reduction in migration would substantially reduce the Government’s headroom.
然而，呼吁限制海外工人可能会让雷切尔·里夫斯感到不舒服，财政部官员警告历任财政大臣，大幅减少移民将大大减少政府的回旋余地。
Ms Reeves is already likely to have to raise taxes by £20bn this autumn, following a series of about-turns on welfare and winter fuel payments.
今年秋天，里夫斯很可能不得不增加200亿英镑的税收，此前她在福利和冬季燃料补贴方面做出了一系列转变。
‘Substantial’ burden
Official data shows that immigration has fuelled the two biggest population increases in peacetime.
“巨大”负担
官方数据显示，移民推动了和平时期两次最大的人口增长。
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has found that the population of England and Wales grew by more than 700,000 in the year to June 2024 to nearly 62 million.
英国国家统计局发现，在截至2024年6月的一年里，英格兰和威尔士的人口增长了70多万，达到近6200万。
This is the second-biggest annual jump since records began in 1949 and only beaten by the 800,000 rise in the population in the previous 12 months.
这是自1949年有记录以来的第二大年度增长，仅次于之前12个月的80万人口增长。
This stemmed from record rises in net migration – the number of people entering the UK minus those leaving.
这源于净移民人数的创纪录增长——即进入英国的人数减去离开英国的人数。
Mr Miles said continuing these trends was unsustainable because it would pile a “substantial” burden on the public finances.
迈尔斯表示，继续这种趋势是不可持续的，因为这将给公共财政带来“巨大”负担。
He highlighted that even if all the future migrants arriving in the UK were all aged 24 and would not reach retirement for more than four decades, the population would have to rise by 20m to balance the split between pensioners and workers.
他强调，即使未来抵达英国的所有移民都是24岁，而且40多年后才退休，英国人口也必须增加2000万，才能平衡领取养老金者和工人之间的差距。
He said: “Twenty million extra young people would need to arrive in the UK over the next 40 years to stabilise the dependency ratio at its current level. That would imply a UK population of around 100 million by 2064.”
他说：“在未来40年里，英国需要新增2000万年轻人，才能将抚养比率稳定在目前的水平。”这意味着到2064年英国人口将达到1亿左右。”
Worklessness crisis
OBR analysis published last year showed the average low-earner who comes to Britain aged 25 costs the Government more overall than they pay in from the moment they arrive.
失业危机
英国预算责任办公室去年发布的分析报告显示，平均25岁来到英国的低收入者给政府带来的总体成本超过了他们从抵达英国那一刻起所缴纳的费用。
The cumulative bill rises to an estimated £150,000 each by the time they can claim the state pension at 66, according to the watchdog.
据监管机构称，到他们66岁申请国家养老金时，累积账单估计会上升到每人15万英镑。
This is because low-paid migrants, who the OBR assumes earn half the average wage, demand more from public services compared to what they contribute in tax.
这是因为低收入移民（预算责任办公室认为他们的收入是平均工资的一半）对公共服务的要求比他们贡献的税收要高。
Mr Miles suggested that tackling the substantial rise in young Britons claiming they are too sick to even look for work would be more beneficial for the public purse.
迈尔斯建议，解决越来越多的英国年轻人声称他们病得太重，甚至找不到工作的问题，对公共财政更有利。
He said: “The fiscal benefits of helping people, especially young people who potentially have many years of work ahead of them, back into employment are substantial.
他说：“帮助人们，特别是那些有可能工作多年的年轻人，重新就业的财政效益是巨大的。
“There is a great deal of evidence that mental health in particular is typically improved by being in work. And mental health problems have been a very significant factor behind the recent rise in illness-related inactivity.”
“有大量证据表明，工作通常会改善心理健康状况。而心理健康问题是最近与疾病相关的不活动增加的一个非常重要的因素。”
Calls for lower migration come amid growing scrutiny of the UK’s benefits bill, particularly after Labour watered down welfare reforms earlier this year following a backbench rebellion.
在呼吁减少移民之际，英国的福利法案正受到越来越多的审视，尤其是在今年早些时候工党在后座议员的反对下淡化了福利改革之后。
The benefits bill for people on sickness or disability benefits is currently on course to hit £100bn by the end of the decade.
到2020年，领取疾病或残疾津贴的人的福利账单将达到1000亿英镑。
Mr Miles said: “The higher population route to fiscal sustainability by slowing the ageing of the population is uncertain. Today’s young people are tomorrow’s old people, so fiscal benefits fade. And the rise in the population needed to completely offset ageing in demographic structure is very great and gets bigger over time. It could not be sustained.”
迈尔斯表示：“通过减缓人口老龄化来实现财政可持续性的人口增加路线尚不确定。今天的年轻人就是明天的老年人，所以财政福利会逐渐消失。完全抵消人口结构老龄化所需要的人口增长是非常巨大的，而且随着时间的推移会越来越大。这种情况无法持续下去。”
A Treasury spokesman said: “Under the last government, Britain’s economy became addicted to cheap overseas labour and relaxed visa controls that saw net migration explode to nearly one million...
一位财政部发言人表示：“在上一届政府执政期间，英国经济对廉价海外劳动力上瘾，并放松了签证管制，导致净移民激增至近100万……
“We’ve rolled up our sleeves to fix this broken system and deliver a controlled, sextive and fair migration that rewards contribution, restores control of our borders and gives communities greater confidence that Britain is working in their favour”.
“我们已经卷起袖子修复这个破损的体系，提供一种有控制的、有选择性的、公平的移民，奖励贡献，恢复对我们边界的控制，让社区更有信心，相信英国正在为他们服务。”
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