德国在一战中曾有切实的获胜机会吗
正文翻译
Zhaun Christian Sederio，Studied at Makati Science High School
曾就读于马卡蒂科学高中
Yes, definitely if they have done these things:
Avoiding a two-front war : The number 1 lesson Germany have probably learned from the 20th century is that “Never fight on two fronts”. Well, many says that Germany could have defended the line in Alsace-Lorraine and attack RUSSIA, well it’s not good. Germany could have focused more on France and follow the Schlieffen Plan. The key is to focus the army to France and then transfer the troops by rail to settle the Eastern Front. That is why they have an ally. They could have instructed the Austrians to hold it with minimal German intervention. Russia did attack East Prussia but was annihilated at the Battle of Tannenberg. They lost 170,000 men to just 12,000 Germans in one of history's most famous battles of encirclement. Yet Moltke transferred three valuable corps that could have strengthened the plan to invade Belgium and eventually France. They could have let Russia advance a little further to to East Prussia and cripple their supply lines and let Austria to outflank them or vice versa. And when the Belgium Offensive is won or the western front stabilized then they could have finished the Russians. Austria-Hungary for Russia, Ottoman Empire for the Balkans and Germany for the West and Italy. Remember, Russia is in the attack, they are not going to be dedicated enough to fight like the way they always do when the motherland is at risk.
是的，如果德国做了以下这些事，就绝对有机会获胜：
避免两线作战：德国或许从20世纪吸取的首要教训就是“永远不要陷入两线作战”。很多人认为，德国本可以防守阿尔萨斯-洛林战线，转而进攻俄国，但这并非良策。德国本应更专注于对付法国，并执行施里芬计划。关键在于集中兵力攻打法国，之后通过铁路调兵去平定东线。这正是德国拥有盟友的意义所在，他们本可以命令奥地利人在德国最小限度干预的情况下守住东线。俄国确实进攻了东普鲁士，却在坦能堡战役中全军覆没。在这场历史上最著名的合围战役之一中，俄军损失17万人，而德军仅损失1.2万人。然而，毛奇却调走了三个精锐军——这些兵力本可以加强入侵比利时并最终攻打法国的计划。德国本可以让俄国向东普鲁士再推进一段距离，随后切断其补给线，再让奥地利军队从侧翼包抄俄军，反之亦然。等到比利时攻势获胜或西线局势稳定后，他们再全力消灭俄军。让奥匈帝国对付俄国，奥斯曼帝国应对巴尔干地区，德国则负责西线和意大利方向。要记住，俄国当时处于进攻方，他们不会像祖国面临危险时那样全力作战。
Dax Theo Born in the USA
出生于美国
Yes. Both before and during the war. Things were a bit on a knife edge during the Battle of the Marne in 1914.
是的，德国在战前和战时都有获胜机会。1914年的马恩河战役期间，局势更是处于紧要关头。
First Battle of the Marne - Wikipedia
第一次马恩河战役——维基百科
Of course, even had the Germans taken Paris, the French may simply have kept retreating, but with much of France’s Northern industrial base and the capital in enemy hands (and Isle de France is France’s heartland), then it is less likely for France to be able to prosecute the war well.
A more interesting scenario is the view from Berlin in the summer of 1914 as World War 1 was beginning to break out. For the Germans (and Austrians), largely expect their treaty ally, Italy, to join the war on their side. It is true that the Triple Alliance was a defensive alliance, and so Italy was not obligated to join the war. However, given their treaty relations, it seemed likely that Italy would join the war on the German side.
当然，即便德军攻占了巴黎，法军或许还会继续撤退，但法国北部的大部分工业基地和首都一旦落入敌手（而且法兰西岛是法国的核心地区），法国就不太可能再顺利地继续作战了。
一个更有意思的设想是，1914年夏天一战即将爆发时，柏林方面的看法。德国人和奥地利人大多期望他们的盟友意大利能加入己方作战。诚然，三国同盟是一个防御性同盟，意大利并没有义务参战。但考虑到彼此的盟约关系，意大利似乎（确实）有可能会站在德国这边。
This would have been a vastly different war. In our timeline, Italy joins the Entente of Britain, France, and Russia to gain “Italian” territories in Austria-Hungary (mostly along the coast of Croatia). Italy had regained Venice from Austria as recently as 1866, less than 50 years before the beginning of the Great War. And Italy wanted parts of the old Venetian Empire from Austria to join their defensive allies The Central Powers in World War 1. Italy was quite mercenary about which side it joined in the war. In the end, the Austrian-Italian front didn’t move very far - but it was extremely bloody. Italians barely pushed the Austrians back and in 1917, Germany and Austria pushed into Italy, almost taking Venice. It wasn’t until (October…) 1918 that Italy pushed pushed the Austrians out of Italy.
While Italy had former territories it wanted from Austria, there were other territories in France it could have focused on in Savoy and Nice (in South Eastern France along the Italian border). These were territories which previously were part of the House of Savoy up until 1860. This is in addition to Corsica in the Mediterranean, which has (even today) quite the independence streak.
那样的话，这场战争将会截然不同。在我们所处的历史时间线中，意大利为了夺取奥匈帝国境内的“意大利人聚居区”（主要沿克罗地亚海岸），加入了英、法、俄组成的协约国。意大利早在1866年就从奥地利手中夺回了威尼斯，这距离一战爆发还不到50年。而且意大利希望从奥地利手中夺取昔日威尼斯帝国的部分领土，却在一战中加入了其防御盟友同盟国阵营。意大利在选择加入哪一方时颇具功利性。最终，奥意战线的推进幅度并不大，但战斗却异常惨烈。意大利人好不容易才将奥地利人击退，而在1917年，德国和奥地利军队攻入意大利，险些夺取威尼斯。直到1918年10月左右，意大利才将奥地利人赶出本国领土。
尽管意大利想从奥地利手中夺回旧有领土，但法国境内也有其他领土可供其觊觎，比如萨伏依和尼斯（位于法国东南部，毗邻意大利边境）。这些领土在1860年之前一直属于萨伏依王朝。除此之外，地中海的科西嘉岛（即便在如今）也有着强烈的独立倾向。
If Italy had joined the Central Powers in 1914, it is likely that Germany would have won World War 1. Much is made of the two front war that Germany fought in World War 1, with France and Britain on one side and Russia on the other. However, Italy joining the Central Powers would have given France a second Front. It is true that much of the Franco-Italian border is mountainous, but the same was true of the Italo-Austrian border in 1914. Italy also had the option to move toward the West toward Marseilles.
Given that France almost lost Paris in 1914 in our time line without any Italian intervention, an Italian invasion into France in 1914 would have drawn away vital military resources that France needed to force Germany into the stalemate that characterized the Western front until 1918.
如果意大利在1914年加入了同盟国，德国很可能就赢得了一战。人们常常强调德国在一战中陷入了两线作战的困境，一边要对抗法英，另一边要对付俄国。然而，意大利加入同盟国的话，法国就会面临第二条战线。诚然，法意边境的大部分地区都是山地，但1914年的奥意边境也是如此。意大利还可以选择向西进军，攻打马赛。
在我们所处的历史时间线中，即便没有意大利的干预，法国在1914年也险些丢失巴黎。倘若意大利在1914年入侵法国，就会牵制法国的关键军事资源，而这些资源正是法国迫使德国陷入1918年前西线典型僵局所必需的。
An Italian invasion of France in August 1914 would have split French forces. France barely held the Germans in 1914. France would have had a desperate choice: stop the Germans in the from taking Paris or let the Italians take Marseille and possible even Lyon. Likely, France would have crumbled across both fronts and the World War would have been over by Christmas, just as promised.
Even if Italy had remained neutral in the World War, this would have freed up many Austria (and later German) troops, likely seeing the collapse of Russia sooner and making the 1918 German Spring Offensive even more effective, perhaps decisive.
1914年8月意大利入侵法国，会使法军兵力分散。1914年时，法国本就勉强抵挡着德军的进攻，届时将面临艰难抉择：要么阻止德军攻占巴黎，要么任由意大利夺取马赛，甚至可能还有里昂。很可能的结果是，法国在两条战线都会崩溃，而一战也会如当初承诺的那样在圣诞节前结束。
即便意大利在一战中保持中立，也会释放大量奥地利（以及后来德国）的军队，这可能会加速俄国的崩溃，并使1918年德国的春季攻势更具成效，甚至可能起到决定性作用。
What would Italy have received in return? If Italy had joined the war, she would have received likely what Italy had “under supervision” during the Second World War - Corsica, Savoy, Nice, Geneva, and possibly even Lyon and Marseille. France would not only have the grudge of Alsace-Lorraine, but also Nice-Savoy-Corsica. It would have been a different world.
意大利能得到什么回报呢？如果意大利参战，它很可能会获得二战期间意大利“在监管下”所拥有的领土——科西嘉岛、萨伏依、尼斯、日内瓦，甚至可能还有里昂和马赛。这样一来，法国不仅会对阿尔萨斯-洛林地区的丢失心怀怨恨，还会为尼斯-萨伏依-科西嘉地区的丧失而不满，世界也将是另一番景象。
Josiah Greenbrier
Germany was pretty much winning by 1917. The Russians were essentially beaten and would soon be knocked out of the war; the French military was in a state of mutiny. With Russia gone, that meant that the German High Command could now begin to transfer its numerous divisions from the east to the west and start concentrating on the western front.
What changed everything was the entry of the United States into the war. Unfortunately for the Germans, their leadership made a series of boneheaded decisions that practically begged for the US to join on the side of the Allies.
到1917年时，德国几乎已经胜券在握。俄国基本上已被击败，很快就会退出战争；法国军队则处于兵变状态。俄国的退出意味着德国最高统帅部现在可以开始将大量师级部队从东线调往西线，并集中精力应对西线战事。
改变一切的是美国参战。对德国而言不幸的是，其领导层做出了一系列愚蠢的决策，几乎是在促使美国加入协约国一方。
It changed everything because it gave the Allies a huge supply of fresh troops to bolster their ranks as well as access to America’s vast supplies, just as Britain was showing the first signs of difficulty getting enough food for its army and people. As alluded to above, the French Army mutinies showed that the French Army was already at the breaking point. The British Expeditionary Force — Kitchener’s Army — was much smaller than the French contingent, and there was no way the BEF could have survived without the French against the Germans. The British also had the additional new distraction of the 1916 Easter Rising and looming civil war in Ireland, forcing them to use much-needed troops to fight there (and reduce their supply of Irish soldiers). Both British and French troops were exhausted and on their last legs, while the Germans were jubilant thanks to the collapse of the Russian Empire.
美国参战之所以能改变局势，是因为它为协约国提供了大量生力军来扩充兵力，还让协约国得以获取美国丰富的物资供应。而当时英国刚刚显现出难以为本国军队和民众获取足够粮食的迹象。正如前文所提及的，法军兵变表明法军已处于崩溃边缘。英国远征军（即基钦纳的军队）的规模远小于法国部队，如果没有法军的配合，英国远征军根本无法独自对抗德军。此外，1916年的复活节起义以及爱尔兰即将爆发的内战，也让英国分心，迫使他们调遣急需的兵力前往爱尔兰作战（这也减少了爱尔兰士兵的供给）。此时，英、法军队都已疲惫不堪、濒临极限，而德国则因俄罗斯帝国的崩溃而欢欣鼓舞。
Thing is, it was by no means clear that the US would enter the war at all, and even if it did, there was a pretty good chance they could have joined on the side of the Germans and Central Powers. The US had a very large number of German immigrants sympathetic to the fatherland. In those days many Americans still spoke German as a first or second language, being recent immigrants or the children of immigrants. (One of the newspapers in the US with the largest circulation in those days was the New Yorker Staats-Zeitung. Most major cities had a German-language major newspaper.) Britain, meanwhile, was after all still the old enemy at that point — the Revolution and War of 1812, plus British support for the Confederacy during the Civil War, left a lot of bad blood. Had the Germans played their cards right, the US simply would have stayed out or maybe even helped them.
关键在于，当时根本无法确定美国是否会参战，即便美国参战，也有很大可能会加入德国和同盟国一方。美国有大量德国移民，他们对祖国心怀同情。在那个年代，许多美国人要么是新移民，要么是移民后代，仍将德语作为第一或第二语言。（当时美国发行量最大的报纸之一是《纽约州报》，大多数主要城市都有一份重要的德语报纸。）与此同时，英国在当时毕竟仍是美国的宿敌——美国独立战争、1812年战争，再加上美国内战期间英国对南部邦联的支持，都留下了很深的积怨。如果德国当时决策得当，美国完全可能保持中立，甚至可能援助德国。
The boneheaded decisions on the part of the Germans can be summed up in two areas:
德国的愚蠢决策主要可归结为两个方面：
The U-boat campaign and unrestricted submarine warfare antagonized the American public, as it targeted neutral shipping (including American ships) and American citizens were dying as German U-boats sank ships by the dozen. The US protested repeatedly, but the Germans largely ignored them. This reached a low point with the sinking of the RMS Lusitania, which shocked American public opinion, and British intelligence as well as pro-British press magnates in the US (who were after all competing with German-language newspapers and often were anti-immigrant) took advantage of this by playing up the horror stories in the American media. The hamfisted, high-handed German diplomatic response to American anger only made things far worse.
U艇作战（在德语里也是潜艇的意思）和无限制潜艇战激怒了美国民众，因为这种战法以中立国船只（包括美国船只）为目标，德国潜艇击沉了数十艘船只，导致美国公民丧生。美国多次提出抗议，但德国大多置之不理。卢西塔尼亚号邮轮的沉没让局势跌至谷底，这一事件震惊了美国舆论。而英国情报部门以及美国国内亲英的报业巨头（他们毕竟要与德语报纸竞争，且往往持反移民立场）趁机在美国媒体上大肆渲染这一恐怖事件。面对美国的愤怒，德国采取了笨拙、高压的外交回应，这只会让事情变得更糟。
The other was the infamous Zimmermann Telegram, a diplomatic note to the Mexicans from Germany that was intercepted by British intelligence and gleefully forwarded to the American media and government. The note essentially promised Mexico it would regain its lost territory in the American Southwest if it joined Germany in going to war against America. The content of the note was so explosive and so over the top that even many pro-British Americans refused to believe it was true — then the ambassador who wrote it, Zimmermann, publicly said it was true, first to an American journalist on 3 March, then in a speech to the German Reichstag a little later on 29 March. Germany had been trying to goad Mexico and the US into war with each other since 1914, with limited success. Yet this was such a blatant provocation that there was no way the US could ignore it — and the Germans not only did not do damage control, they flaunted it.
Had the US stayed out, Germany would almost certainly have won the war after a French collapse and British negotiated withdrawal.
另一个决策是臭名昭著的“齐默曼电报”。这是德国发给墨西哥的一封外交照会，被英国情报部门截获后，英国欣然将其转发给了美国媒体和政府。该照会本质上承诺，如果墨西哥加入德国一方对美国开战，德国将帮助墨西哥夺回其在美国西南部失去的领土。照会内容极具煽动性且过分离谱，即便许多亲英的美国人也不愿相信这是真的——但撰写这封电报的大使齐默曼却公开承认了其真实性，他先是在3月3日对一名美国记者承认，随后又在3月29日向德国国会发表演讲时再次确认。自1914年以来，德国一直试图挑动墨西哥与美国开战，但收效甚微。而这次的电报事件是如此明目张胆的挑衅，美国根本无法忽视——可德国不仅没有采取补救措施，反而还大肆炫耀。
如果美国没有参战，在法国崩溃、英国通过谈判撤军之后，德国几乎肯定会赢得这场战争。
Paul Kraase，Studied Noise, Vibration, and Harshness (NVH) & Master of Business Administration Degrees at Purdue University Global (Graduated 1993)
曾在普渡大学全球分校攻读噪声、振动与声振粗糙度（NVH）专业及工商管理硕士学位（1993年毕业）
The correct question should actually be: “Did the Central Powers have a realistic chance of winning WWI?”
While Germany was the dominate member of the Central Powers, the other major nations involved were Austria-Hungry, the Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria.
Now, on to the answer:
Absolutely the Central Powers did have a chance of winning, up until the US entered the conflict late in the war.
实际上，正确的问题应该是：“同盟国在一战中曾有切实的获胜机会吗？”
尽管德国是同盟国中的主导国家，但参与其中的其他主要国家还包括奥匈帝国、奥斯曼帝国和保加利亚。
接下来是答案：
在战争后期美国参战之前，同盟国绝对是有获胜机会的。
By 1917, the Central Powers were in a difficult position, but there was victory in sight. Russia was broken and revolution was brewing, causing them to withdraw from the conflict so they could focus on their internal problems. This allowed Germany to move 40 divisions from the Eastern Front to the Western Front.
At this time, the morale of the French and British troops was extremely low. With the French Army in full revolt, France was teetering on the brink and close to capitulation.
到1917年，同盟国虽处于困境，但胜利已然在望。俄国已元气大伤，革命正在酝酿之中，这使得俄国不得不退出战争，以便专注于解决国内问题。这让德国得以将40个师从东线调往西线。
此时，法、英军队的士气极低。法军全面兵变，法国正处于崩溃边缘，濒临投降。
If the French were defeated, then the Central Powers would have pushed the British off the European continent. Britain had social unrest at home to deal with, also a civil war brewing in Ireland so they were forced to commit troops there. This was in addition to all the other distractions of an empire beginning to crumble.
Then in June of 1917, the US started sending troops to France. By May of 1918, over a million US troops were stationed at the front with another million in reserve. With US involvement, the war dragged on and by November 1918, the Central Powers surrendered.
They simply ran out of soldiers, food, fuel, guns and bullets.
如果法国战败，同盟国就会将英国赶出欧洲大陆。英国国内要应对社会动荡，爱尔兰还酝酿着内战，这迫使英国不得不向爱尔兰派驻军队。此外，大英帝国已开始走向衰落，还有诸多其他事务让英国分心。
之后在1917年6月，美国开始向法国派遣军队。到1918年5月，已有超过100万美军驻扎在前线，另有100万美军作为后备力量。在美国的介入下，战争陷入持久战，到1918年11月，同盟国宣布投降。
他们只是耗尽了士兵、粮食、燃料、枪支和弹药。
Neil Wells，Studied at Poorly educated but more knowable than modern day humanty graduates!
曾表示“受教育程度不高，但比当今大学毕业生更有见识”
Yes and no! Germany could have won the Great War, however as it stood, not by any great planning or actions on their part, but by the incompetence of their enemies, namely their enemies could have easily lost the war and not by Germany winning it!
This all sounds very negative, but the simple fact was that when Germany went to war in August 1914, the German Great General Staff knew that the numbers did not add up! The number of soldiers available to the central powers (Austro-Hungarians, the Italians and themselves) were less than those available to their enemies, namely the French and the Russians. They were doubtful that the Italians would honour their agreement (especially since the German plan was aggressive and the agreement was defensive), and what the British intentions were going to be, which would probably lead to a greater differential of manpower against them.
In popular myth, the German opening move almost worked. However, in reality this is not true and it was never going to work, due to manpower numbers. This the German chief of staff, von Moltke, understood beforehand and therefore believed his plan had little chance of success (less than 50% chance).
答案是“既有可能，也没可能”！德国本可以赢得一战，但从当时的情况来看，这并非凭借德国自身出色的规划或行动，而是依靠其敌人的无能——也就是说，是敌人本可能轻易输掉战争，而非德国主动赢得战争！
这听起来可能很消极，但一个简单的事实是，1914年8月德国参战时，德国总参谋部就知道兵力数字对他们不利！同盟国（奥匈帝国、意大利和德国自身）可动用的士兵数量少于其敌人（即法国和俄国）。他们怀疑意大利是否会履行协议（尤其是因为德国的计划具有侵略性，而该协议本是防御性的），也不确定英国的意图，这很可能会导致双方人力差距进一步扩大，对德国更为不利。
在大众传说中，德国最初的进攻行动险些成功。但事实上，由于兵力不足，这一行动从未有过成功的可能。德国总参谋长冯·毛奇早已明白这一点，因此他认为自己的计划成功概率很低（不足50%）。
There are a number of reasons why it appears to have almost been successful. The first of these reasons was the French government refused Joffre (French chief of staff) permission to attack the Germans in Belguim without an invitation from the Belgian government, giving the Germans a massive head start! The second reason was that the initial French moves were to launch attacks into Lorraine and the Ardennes, which proved to be monumental failures.
However, the French were not the only ones to make mistakes, likewise the Germans did too. Indeed, the Germans made more mistakes than the French, which were quickly grossed over! Apart from manpower, an underestimation of the speed of Russian mobilisation, communications, logistics, bad intelligence, and non existent reconnaissance proved to be the undoing of their master plan.
From bad beginnings, it did not become any better for the Germans and the manpower problems only became worst as the war progressed. The only period where the Germans had near parity with their enemies was in the late winter / early spring of 1918, when the Russian had been knocked out of the war and the Americans had not the numbers of trained men in France, ready for action. So, what did the Germans do? They wasted their manpower on costly offensives that went nowhere!
之所以看起来德国的行动险些成功，原因有很多。首先，在没有得到比利时政府邀请的情况下，法国政府拒绝了法军总参谋长霞飞进攻在比利时境内德军的请求，这让德国获得了巨大的先发优势！其次，法军最初的行动是向洛林和阿登地区发起进攻，结果证明这些进攻都是惨败。
然而，并非只有法国犯错，德国也同样犯了错。事实上，德国犯的错比法国还多，只是这些错误很快被掩盖了！除了兵力不足，对俄国动员速度的低估、通信不畅、后勤问题、糟糕的情报以及缺失的侦察，都成为了导致其总体计划失败的原因。
开局不利之后，德国的处境并未好转，而且随着战争的推进，兵力问题愈发严重。德国唯一与敌人兵力接近持平的时期是1918年末冬初春，当时俄国已退出战争，而美国在法国的训练有素且可投入战斗的兵力尚未形成规模。可德国做了什么呢？他们将人力浪费在了代价高昂却毫无进展的进攻上！
Could the Germans have won the Great War? The first was to correct the errors in their prewar planning, especially the six points mentioned above, for example, it was assumed that the Belguim railway system would fall intact to the Germany Army as they advanced, when in fact it was made unserviceable by the retreating Belgians. Instead of relaying on wishful thinking, then perhaps the German Army command should have invested more in motor transport, instead of building very expensive battleships for a navy going nowhere! The biggest problem by the German planners was that there was no ‘Plan B’.
Finally, the Germans needed their enemies to make more and bigger mistakes than themselves, which they did not!
德国本可以赢得一战吗？首先，他们本该修正战前规划中的错误，尤其是上述六点。例如，德国曾假设在推进过程中，比利时铁路系统会完好无损地落入德军手中，但事实上，撤退的比利时人早已将其破坏，无法使用。德国陆军指挥部本不该抱有侥幸心理，而应加大对汽车运输的投入，而非为一支毫无作为的海军建造造价高昂的战列舰！德国规划者面临的最大问题是，他们根本没有“备选方案”。
最后，德国需要其敌人犯下比自己更多、更大的错误，但敌人并没有这样做！
Cameron Greene，Historian by trade, Thucydidean in practice
职业历史学家，践行修昔底德式历史研究方法
There was one point and only one point where the Germans were at their closest to victory, the beginning stages of the war.
Had Helmuth von Moltke the Younger, the overall German commander in the West not altered the Schlieffen Plan drastically from its original format, remained level-headed, and commanded effectively at the Battle of the Marne, Germany very well would have won World War 1.
The annals of military history will forever damn this man as a major reason for Germany's failure in World War 1, his nerves broken and his ideas terrible.
德国只有一次，也仅有一次最接近胜利，那就是在战争初期。
如果西线德军总指挥小赫尔穆特·冯·毛奇没有对施里芬计划的原始方案进行大幅修改，能保持冷静，并在马恩河战役中有效指挥，德国本可以赢得一战。
军事史的记载将永远把他视为德国在一战中失败的主要原因之一——他意志崩溃，决策糟糕。
Foolish Changes
愚蠢的修改
The Schlieffen Plan was always intended to push France out of the war before Russia could come back and bite her right in the ass. The idea was that a rapid advance through Belgium, regardless of their neutrality, would cut-throw defending forces and open a door into France itself. They would push for Paris, just as they had in the Franco-Prussian War, before swinging down to encircle defending Entente forces along the French-German border.
施里芬计划的初衷始终是在俄国能反过来反击德国之前，将法国赶出战争。该计划的思路是，无论比利时是否中立，德军都要迅速穿越比利时，突破防御部队，打开进入法国本土的通道。就像普法战争时期那样，德军会向巴黎推进，随后转而南下，包围法德边境沿线的协约国防御部队。
Von Moltke shot himself in the foot well before the war even began, modifying the plan drastically before the war. The critical change came through his abandonment of attacking through the Netherlands and moving large portions of the German Army to the Alsace-Lorraine regions.
早在战争爆发前，毛奇就搬起石头砸了自己的脚——他在战前对计划进行了大幅修改。其中关键的修改是，他放弃了经由荷兰进攻的路线，并将德军的大部分兵力调往阿尔萨斯-洛林地区。
Avoiding the Netherlands cost von Moltke dearly, denying access to the vital railways around Maastricht and forcing von Moltke to push the 1st and 2nd German Armies through a gap 12 miles wide in Belgium. The logistics of this were unheard of and the entire timetable would be thrown into flux on the gamble of invading solely through Belgium.
避开荷兰让毛奇付出了沉重代价，德军无法使用马斯特里赫特周边至关重要的铁路，毛奇不得不迫使德国第一、第二集团军从比利时境内一个12英里宽的缺口推进。这样的后勤安排是前所未有的，仅靠入侵比利时这一孤注一掷的行动，整个作战时间表陷入了混乱。
Moving large parts of the German Army proved disastrous to the Schlieffen Plan’s time table, the Belgian Army holding out for 13 weeks with support from the British Expeditionary Force against the reduced might of the German Army in the north. This loss of time and stagnation of progress allowed for the Great Retreat which saved a plethora of troops and reinforced them along the River Marne. These troops would prove vital in the Battle of the Marne.
将德军大部分兵力调走，对施里芬计划的时间表造成了灾难性影响。在英国远征军的支援下，比利时军队凭借北部德军被削弱的兵力，坚守了13周。时间的延误和进展的停滞使得协约国军队得以实施“大撤退”，保存了大量兵力，并在马恩河沿岸重新部署。这些兵力在马恩河战役中起到了至关重要的作用。
Broken Nerves
崩溃的意志
The Schlieffen Plan always counted on Russia not being able to mobilize for at least six weeks. There was only one problem, Russia did it in three. With her forces mobilized, Russia began her offensives into East Germany. This sudden development panicked von Moltke who transferred significant portions of the German Army from the West to the East, despite field commanders dismissing their need. They never had any effect, only reaching the East once the Russians had lost all offensive momentum. In a state of panic, von Moltke had made a dexerious decision that would come to harm him in his next disaster, the Battle of the Marne.
施里芬计划始终寄望于俄国至少需要六周时间才能完成动员。但问题在于，俄国仅用三周就完成了动员。兵力动员完成后，俄国开始向东德发起进攻。这一突发情况让毛奇陷入恐慌，尽管战地指挥官认为无需增兵，他还是将德军的大量兵力从西线调往东线。这些兵力最终毫无作用，只是在俄军完全丧失进攻势头后才抵达东线。在恐慌状态下，毛奇做出了这一有害决策，而这一决策在之后的马恩河战役灾难中，进一步对他造成了不利影响。
Catastrophic Leadership
灾难性的指挥
As a result of his panic-induced decision, von Moltke had weakened his forces advancing through Belgium even further. By shifting two corps of the German Army from the Western Front to the East, von Moltke had unintentionally weakened his advancing forces.
由于这一恐慌下的决策，毛奇进一步削弱了正在穿越比利时推进的部队。将德军两个军从西线调往东线，毛奇在无意间削弱了进攻部队的实力。
By late August, it had become clear it had become clear that von Moltke had effectively lost control of his armies. The German 1st Army and German 2nd Army, under the command von Kluck and von Bülow respectively, were charging well ahead of expectations and as a result, communication lines became hazy at best between the field commanders and von Moltke himself. This lack of communication became apparent when the offensives of both armies fell out of synch and opened up a gap near Paris that the BEF and the French exploited. As a result, the 2nd German Army was in very grave danger of being cut off and the field commanders thought best to avoid an encirclement and retreat the 2nd Army to more favorable positioning. This resulted in a earlier turn into the interior of France than was intended, east of Paris. This would become the setup for the First Battle of the Marne where German forces were defeated, halting their advance into France.
到8月底，很明显，毛奇实际上已经失去了对军队的控制。分别由冯·克卢克和冯·比洛指挥的德国第一集团军和第二集团军，推进速度远超预期，导致战地指挥官与毛奇本人之间的通信线路充其量也只是模糊不清。当这两个集团军的进攻步伐不同步，在巴黎附近出现一个缺口，并被英国远征军和法军利用时，这种通信不畅的问题就变得尤为明显。结果，德国第二集团军面临被切断退路的严重危险，战地指挥官认为最好避免被包围，于是将第二集团军撤退到更有利的位置。这导致德军比原定计划更早地转向法国腹地，进入了巴黎以东地区。而这一局面为第一次马恩河战役埋下了伏笔——德军在该战役中战败，向法国的推进就此停滞。
Failure at the Marne resulted in the retreat of German forces to the frontiers of the offensive. The retreat did little to help von Moltke's command who subsequently had a nervous breakdown at the news that they had just lost 56 miles of territory and over 14,000 prisoners. His subordinates took charge and situated the Army at Aisne where they dug trenches and prepared for the advancing British and French, effectively starting trench warfare on the Western Front.
It was all or nothing for the Germans on the Western Front in the months of August and September, at no other point would they come so close to victory. Only foolish changes, broken nerves, and catastrophic leadership by Helmuth von Moltke saved France from certain defeat.
马恩河战役的失败导致德军撤退到进攻的前沿阵地。这次撤退对毛奇的指挥毫无帮助，当得知德军刚刚丢失了56英里的领土，并被俘1.4万多人时，他随后精神崩溃。他的下属接管了指挥权，将军队部署在埃纳河地区，挖掘战壕，准备应对推进的英、法军队，西线的堑壕战也由此正式开始。
在8月和9月这两个月里，德军在西线的处境是要么全胜，要么全败，此后他们再也没有如此接近胜利过。正是小赫尔穆特·冯·毛奇愚蠢的修改、崩溃的意志和灾难性的指挥，才让法国免于必败的命运。
John Crane，Fan of science
科学爱好者
Prior to the war Russia was slowly modernizing its army. Germany went to war, in part, because victory was more likely in 1914 than in years to come.
There were, however, some surprises that would muck up their first best chance to win.
战前，俄国正在缓慢推进军队现代化。德国参战的部分原因是，1914年获胜的可能性比未来几年都要大。
然而，一些意外情况却打乱了他们赢得战争的最佳首次机会。
1) Russia was able to mobilize more quickly than Germany calculated. This caused Germany to move troops West to East.
2) Britain joined the war after the invasion of Belgium. While not a shocking surprise, there was the chance Britain would sit this one out.
3) The Belgians put up a tougher fight than expected. The Schlieffen Plan was always going to be tight. Success required staying on the timeline. The Battle of Liège alone delayed the German advance by 4 or 5 days. Four days might have meant that there would be no "Miracle of the Marne" to stop the German advance.
4) The Austro-Hungarian military was utterly incompetent and sucked more German resources from the Western Front.
1）俄国的动员速度比德国预计的要快，这迫使德国将军队从西线调往东线。
2）德国入侵比利时后，英国参战。尽管这并非令人震惊的意外，但英国本有可能置身事外。
3）比利时人的抵抗比预期的更为顽强。施里芬计划的时间安排本就十分紧张，要想成功就必须严格遵守时间表。仅列日战役就使德军的推进延误了4到5天。而这4天的时间，或许就意味着不会有阻止德军推进的“马恩河奇迹”了。
4）奥匈帝国军队完全无能，从西线消耗了德国更多的资源。
Before these card were dealt, victory looked very achievable.
在这些意外情况发生之前，胜利看起来是完全可以实现的。
Scott Keyes，
Studied at University of California, DavisUpvoted by Brady Swanson, Studied history extensively for six years
曾就读于加利福尼亚大学戴维斯分校，获得布雷迪·斯旺森（曾广泛研究历史六年）的点赞
The definition of “Win” is very critical here. Other people are going into the ‘what ifs’ of the military victory they could have achieved by maneuver in the field against other formations… But then ask the question “Could the Imperial German Army have successfully and meaningfully occupied a territory stretching from the Pyrenees to the Urals? Its a question even modern generals (or is it politicians?) seem to overlook. The answer I believe is ‘no’. They were already having plenty of trouble with the occupation of Belgium and the parts of France they had. stretch those formations out to occupy that amount of territory… and the millions of people who hated them even more for their brutal occupation policies and very likely they’d have seen how *thin* the idea of simply defeating the armies in the field turned into as a ‘victory’ after only a very few years.
此处对“获胜”的定义至关重要。其他人都在探讨德国通过在战场上调动兵力对抗其他部队，本可实现军事胜利的“假设情况”……但不妨提出这样一个问题：“德意志帝国陆军是否能够成功且有意义地占领从比利牛斯山脉延伸到乌拉尔山脉的领土？” 这个问题似乎连现代将军（或者应该说是政治家？）都忽略了。我认为答案是否定的。当时德军在占领比利时以及已攻占的法国部分地区时，就已经遇到了诸多麻烦。要是再分散兵力去占领如此广阔的领土……而且数百万人会因德军残酷的占领政策而更加憎恨他们，那么很可能只需几年时间，德军就会发现，仅仅在战场上击败敌军部队，这种“胜利”的想法是多么不切实际。
曾就读于马卡蒂科学高中
Yes, definitely if they have done these things:
Avoiding a two-front war : The number 1 lesson Germany have probably learned from the 20th century is that “Never fight on two fronts”. Well, many says that Germany could have defended the line in Alsace-Lorraine and attack RUSSIA, well it’s not good. Germany could have focused more on France and follow the Schlieffen Plan. The key is to focus the army to France and then transfer the troops by rail to settle the Eastern Front. That is why they have an ally. They could have instructed the Austrians to hold it with minimal German intervention. Russia did attack East Prussia but was annihilated at the Battle of Tannenberg. They lost 170,000 men to just 12,000 Germans in one of history's most famous battles of encirclement. Yet Moltke transferred three valuable corps that could have strengthened the plan to invade Belgium and eventually France. They could have let Russia advance a little further to to East Prussia and cripple their supply lines and let Austria to outflank them or vice versa. And when the Belgium Offensive is won or the western front stabilized then they could have finished the Russians. Austria-Hungary for Russia, Ottoman Empire for the Balkans and Germany for the West and Italy. Remember, Russia is in the attack, they are not going to be dedicated enough to fight like the way they always do when the motherland is at risk.
是的，如果德国做了以下这些事，就绝对有机会获胜：
避免两线作战：德国或许从20世纪吸取的首要教训就是“永远不要陷入两线作战”。很多人认为，德国本可以防守阿尔萨斯-洛林战线，转而进攻俄国，但这并非良策。德国本应更专注于对付法国，并执行施里芬计划。关键在于集中兵力攻打法国，之后通过铁路调兵去平定东线。这正是德国拥有盟友的意义所在，他们本可以命令奥地利人在德国最小限度干预的情况下守住东线。俄国确实进攻了东普鲁士，却在坦能堡战役中全军覆没。在这场历史上最著名的合围战役之一中，俄军损失17万人，而德军仅损失1.2万人。然而，毛奇却调走了三个精锐军——这些兵力本可以加强入侵比利时并最终攻打法国的计划。德国本可以让俄国向东普鲁士再推进一段距离，随后切断其补给线，再让奥地利军队从侧翼包抄俄军，反之亦然。等到比利时攻势获胜或西线局势稳定后，他们再全力消灭俄军。让奥匈帝国对付俄国，奥斯曼帝国应对巴尔干地区，德国则负责西线和意大利方向。要记住，俄国当时处于进攻方，他们不会像祖国面临危险时那样全力作战。
Dax Theo Born in the USA
出生于美国
Yes. Both before and during the war. Things were a bit on a knife edge during the Battle of the Marne in 1914.
是的，德国在战前和战时都有获胜机会。1914年的马恩河战役期间，局势更是处于紧要关头。
First Battle of the Marne - Wikipedia
第一次马恩河战役——维基百科
Of course, even had the Germans taken Paris, the French may simply have kept retreating, but with much of France’s Northern industrial base and the capital in enemy hands (and Isle de France is France’s heartland), then it is less likely for France to be able to prosecute the war well.
A more interesting scenario is the view from Berlin in the summer of 1914 as World War 1 was beginning to break out. For the Germans (and Austrians), largely expect their treaty ally, Italy, to join the war on their side. It is true that the Triple Alliance was a defensive alliance, and so Italy was not obligated to join the war. However, given their treaty relations, it seemed likely that Italy would join the war on the German side.
当然，即便德军攻占了巴黎，法军或许还会继续撤退，但法国北部的大部分工业基地和首都一旦落入敌手（而且法兰西岛是法国的核心地区），法国就不太可能再顺利地继续作战了。
一个更有意思的设想是，1914年夏天一战即将爆发时，柏林方面的看法。德国人和奥地利人大多期望他们的盟友意大利能加入己方作战。诚然，三国同盟是一个防御性同盟，意大利并没有义务参战。但考虑到彼此的盟约关系，意大利似乎（确实）有可能会站在德国这边。
This would have been a vastly different war. In our timeline, Italy joins the Entente of Britain, France, and Russia to gain “Italian” territories in Austria-Hungary (mostly along the coast of Croatia). Italy had regained Venice from Austria as recently as 1866, less than 50 years before the beginning of the Great War. And Italy wanted parts of the old Venetian Empire from Austria to join their defensive allies The Central Powers in World War 1. Italy was quite mercenary about which side it joined in the war. In the end, the Austrian-Italian front didn’t move very far - but it was extremely bloody. Italians barely pushed the Austrians back and in 1917, Germany and Austria pushed into Italy, almost taking Venice. It wasn’t until (October…) 1918 that Italy pushed pushed the Austrians out of Italy.
While Italy had former territories it wanted from Austria, there were other territories in France it could have focused on in Savoy and Nice (in South Eastern France along the Italian border). These were territories which previously were part of the House of Savoy up until 1860. This is in addition to Corsica in the Mediterranean, which has (even today) quite the independence streak.
那样的话，这场战争将会截然不同。在我们所处的历史时间线中，意大利为了夺取奥匈帝国境内的“意大利人聚居区”（主要沿克罗地亚海岸），加入了英、法、俄组成的协约国。意大利早在1866年就从奥地利手中夺回了威尼斯，这距离一战爆发还不到50年。而且意大利希望从奥地利手中夺取昔日威尼斯帝国的部分领土，却在一战中加入了其防御盟友同盟国阵营。意大利在选择加入哪一方时颇具功利性。最终，奥意战线的推进幅度并不大，但战斗却异常惨烈。意大利人好不容易才将奥地利人击退，而在1917年，德国和奥地利军队攻入意大利，险些夺取威尼斯。直到1918年10月左右，意大利才将奥地利人赶出本国领土。
尽管意大利想从奥地利手中夺回旧有领土，但法国境内也有其他领土可供其觊觎，比如萨伏依和尼斯（位于法国东南部，毗邻意大利边境）。这些领土在1860年之前一直属于萨伏依王朝。除此之外，地中海的科西嘉岛（即便在如今）也有着强烈的独立倾向。
If Italy had joined the Central Powers in 1914, it is likely that Germany would have won World War 1. Much is made of the two front war that Germany fought in World War 1, with France and Britain on one side and Russia on the other. However, Italy joining the Central Powers would have given France a second Front. It is true that much of the Franco-Italian border is mountainous, but the same was true of the Italo-Austrian border in 1914. Italy also had the option to move toward the West toward Marseilles.
Given that France almost lost Paris in 1914 in our time line without any Italian intervention, an Italian invasion into France in 1914 would have drawn away vital military resources that France needed to force Germany into the stalemate that characterized the Western front until 1918.
如果意大利在1914年加入了同盟国，德国很可能就赢得了一战。人们常常强调德国在一战中陷入了两线作战的困境，一边要对抗法英，另一边要对付俄国。然而，意大利加入同盟国的话，法国就会面临第二条战线。诚然，法意边境的大部分地区都是山地，但1914年的奥意边境也是如此。意大利还可以选择向西进军，攻打马赛。
在我们所处的历史时间线中，即便没有意大利的干预，法国在1914年也险些丢失巴黎。倘若意大利在1914年入侵法国，就会牵制法国的关键军事资源，而这些资源正是法国迫使德国陷入1918年前西线典型僵局所必需的。
An Italian invasion of France in August 1914 would have split French forces. France barely held the Germans in 1914. France would have had a desperate choice: stop the Germans in the from taking Paris or let the Italians take Marseille and possible even Lyon. Likely, France would have crumbled across both fronts and the World War would have been over by Christmas, just as promised.
Even if Italy had remained neutral in the World War, this would have freed up many Austria (and later German) troops, likely seeing the collapse of Russia sooner and making the 1918 German Spring Offensive even more effective, perhaps decisive.
1914年8月意大利入侵法国，会使法军兵力分散。1914年时，法国本就勉强抵挡着德军的进攻，届时将面临艰难抉择：要么阻止德军攻占巴黎，要么任由意大利夺取马赛，甚至可能还有里昂。很可能的结果是，法国在两条战线都会崩溃，而一战也会如当初承诺的那样在圣诞节前结束。
即便意大利在一战中保持中立，也会释放大量奥地利（以及后来德国）的军队，这可能会加速俄国的崩溃，并使1918年德国的春季攻势更具成效，甚至可能起到决定性作用。
What would Italy have received in return? If Italy had joined the war, she would have received likely what Italy had “under supervision” during the Second World War - Corsica, Savoy, Nice, Geneva, and possibly even Lyon and Marseille. France would not only have the grudge of Alsace-Lorraine, but also Nice-Savoy-Corsica. It would have been a different world.
意大利能得到什么回报呢？如果意大利参战，它很可能会获得二战期间意大利“在监管下”所拥有的领土——科西嘉岛、萨伏依、尼斯、日内瓦，甚至可能还有里昂和马赛。这样一来，法国不仅会对阿尔萨斯-洛林地区的丢失心怀怨恨，还会为尼斯-萨伏依-科西嘉地区的丧失而不满，世界也将是另一番景象。
Josiah Greenbrier
Germany was pretty much winning by 1917. The Russians were essentially beaten and would soon be knocked out of the war; the French military was in a state of mutiny. With Russia gone, that meant that the German High Command could now begin to transfer its numerous divisions from the east to the west and start concentrating on the western front.
What changed everything was the entry of the United States into the war. Unfortunately for the Germans, their leadership made a series of boneheaded decisions that practically begged for the US to join on the side of the Allies.
到1917年时，德国几乎已经胜券在握。俄国基本上已被击败，很快就会退出战争；法国军队则处于兵变状态。俄国的退出意味着德国最高统帅部现在可以开始将大量师级部队从东线调往西线，并集中精力应对西线战事。
改变一切的是美国参战。对德国而言不幸的是，其领导层做出了一系列愚蠢的决策，几乎是在促使美国加入协约国一方。
It changed everything because it gave the Allies a huge supply of fresh troops to bolster their ranks as well as access to America’s vast supplies, just as Britain was showing the first signs of difficulty getting enough food for its army and people. As alluded to above, the French Army mutinies showed that the French Army was already at the breaking point. The British Expeditionary Force — Kitchener’s Army — was much smaller than the French contingent, and there was no way the BEF could have survived without the French against the Germans. The British also had the additional new distraction of the 1916 Easter Rising and looming civil war in Ireland, forcing them to use much-needed troops to fight there (and reduce their supply of Irish soldiers). Both British and French troops were exhausted and on their last legs, while the Germans were jubilant thanks to the collapse of the Russian Empire.
美国参战之所以能改变局势，是因为它为协约国提供了大量生力军来扩充兵力，还让协约国得以获取美国丰富的物资供应。而当时英国刚刚显现出难以为本国军队和民众获取足够粮食的迹象。正如前文所提及的，法军兵变表明法军已处于崩溃边缘。英国远征军（即基钦纳的军队）的规模远小于法国部队，如果没有法军的配合，英国远征军根本无法独自对抗德军。此外，1916年的复活节起义以及爱尔兰即将爆发的内战，也让英国分心，迫使他们调遣急需的兵力前往爱尔兰作战（这也减少了爱尔兰士兵的供给）。此时，英、法军队都已疲惫不堪、濒临极限，而德国则因俄罗斯帝国的崩溃而欢欣鼓舞。
Thing is, it was by no means clear that the US would enter the war at all, and even if it did, there was a pretty good chance they could have joined on the side of the Germans and Central Powers. The US had a very large number of German immigrants sympathetic to the fatherland. In those days many Americans still spoke German as a first or second language, being recent immigrants or the children of immigrants. (One of the newspapers in the US with the largest circulation in those days was the New Yorker Staats-Zeitung. Most major cities had a German-language major newspaper.) Britain, meanwhile, was after all still the old enemy at that point — the Revolution and War of 1812, plus British support for the Confederacy during the Civil War, left a lot of bad blood. Had the Germans played their cards right, the US simply would have stayed out or maybe even helped them.
关键在于，当时根本无法确定美国是否会参战，即便美国参战，也有很大可能会加入德国和同盟国一方。美国有大量德国移民，他们对祖国心怀同情。在那个年代，许多美国人要么是新移民，要么是移民后代，仍将德语作为第一或第二语言。（当时美国发行量最大的报纸之一是《纽约州报》，大多数主要城市都有一份重要的德语报纸。）与此同时，英国在当时毕竟仍是美国的宿敌——美国独立战争、1812年战争，再加上美国内战期间英国对南部邦联的支持，都留下了很深的积怨。如果德国当时决策得当，美国完全可能保持中立，甚至可能援助德国。
The boneheaded decisions on the part of the Germans can be summed up in two areas:
德国的愚蠢决策主要可归结为两个方面：
The U-boat campaign and unrestricted submarine warfare antagonized the American public, as it targeted neutral shipping (including American ships) and American citizens were dying as German U-boats sank ships by the dozen. The US protested repeatedly, but the Germans largely ignored them. This reached a low point with the sinking of the RMS Lusitania, which shocked American public opinion, and British intelligence as well as pro-British press magnates in the US (who were after all competing with German-language newspapers and often were anti-immigrant) took advantage of this by playing up the horror stories in the American media. The hamfisted, high-handed German diplomatic response to American anger only made things far worse.
U艇作战（在德语里也是潜艇的意思）和无限制潜艇战激怒了美国民众，因为这种战法以中立国船只（包括美国船只）为目标，德国潜艇击沉了数十艘船只，导致美国公民丧生。美国多次提出抗议，但德国大多置之不理。卢西塔尼亚号邮轮的沉没让局势跌至谷底，这一事件震惊了美国舆论。而英国情报部门以及美国国内亲英的报业巨头（他们毕竟要与德语报纸竞争，且往往持反移民立场）趁机在美国媒体上大肆渲染这一恐怖事件。面对美国的愤怒，德国采取了笨拙、高压的外交回应，这只会让事情变得更糟。
The other was the infamous Zimmermann Telegram, a diplomatic note to the Mexicans from Germany that was intercepted by British intelligence and gleefully forwarded to the American media and government. The note essentially promised Mexico it would regain its lost territory in the American Southwest if it joined Germany in going to war against America. The content of the note was so explosive and so over the top that even many pro-British Americans refused to believe it was true — then the ambassador who wrote it, Zimmermann, publicly said it was true, first to an American journalist on 3 March, then in a speech to the German Reichstag a little later on 29 March. Germany had been trying to goad Mexico and the US into war with each other since 1914, with limited success. Yet this was such a blatant provocation that there was no way the US could ignore it — and the Germans not only did not do damage control, they flaunted it.
Had the US stayed out, Germany would almost certainly have won the war after a French collapse and British negotiated withdrawal.
另一个决策是臭名昭著的“齐默曼电报”。这是德国发给墨西哥的一封外交照会，被英国情报部门截获后，英国欣然将其转发给了美国媒体和政府。该照会本质上承诺，如果墨西哥加入德国一方对美国开战，德国将帮助墨西哥夺回其在美国西南部失去的领土。照会内容极具煽动性且过分离谱，即便许多亲英的美国人也不愿相信这是真的——但撰写这封电报的大使齐默曼却公开承认了其真实性，他先是在3月3日对一名美国记者承认，随后又在3月29日向德国国会发表演讲时再次确认。自1914年以来，德国一直试图挑动墨西哥与美国开战，但收效甚微。而这次的电报事件是如此明目张胆的挑衅，美国根本无法忽视——可德国不仅没有采取补救措施，反而还大肆炫耀。
如果美国没有参战，在法国崩溃、英国通过谈判撤军之后，德国几乎肯定会赢得这场战争。
Paul Kraase，Studied Noise, Vibration, and Harshness (NVH) & Master of Business Administration Degrees at Purdue University Global (Graduated 1993)
曾在普渡大学全球分校攻读噪声、振动与声振粗糙度（NVH）专业及工商管理硕士学位（1993年毕业）
The correct question should actually be: “Did the Central Powers have a realistic chance of winning WWI?”
While Germany was the dominate member of the Central Powers, the other major nations involved were Austria-Hungry, the Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria.
Now, on to the answer:
Absolutely the Central Powers did have a chance of winning, up until the US entered the conflict late in the war.
实际上，正确的问题应该是：“同盟国在一战中曾有切实的获胜机会吗？”
尽管德国是同盟国中的主导国家，但参与其中的其他主要国家还包括奥匈帝国、奥斯曼帝国和保加利亚。
接下来是答案：
在战争后期美国参战之前，同盟国绝对是有获胜机会的。
By 1917, the Central Powers were in a difficult position, but there was victory in sight. Russia was broken and revolution was brewing, causing them to withdraw from the conflict so they could focus on their internal problems. This allowed Germany to move 40 divisions from the Eastern Front to the Western Front.
At this time, the morale of the French and British troops was extremely low. With the French Army in full revolt, France was teetering on the brink and close to capitulation.
到1917年，同盟国虽处于困境，但胜利已然在望。俄国已元气大伤，革命正在酝酿之中，这使得俄国不得不退出战争，以便专注于解决国内问题。这让德国得以将40个师从东线调往西线。
此时，法、英军队的士气极低。法军全面兵变，法国正处于崩溃边缘，濒临投降。
If the French were defeated, then the Central Powers would have pushed the British off the European continent. Britain had social unrest at home to deal with, also a civil war brewing in Ireland so they were forced to commit troops there. This was in addition to all the other distractions of an empire beginning to crumble.
Then in June of 1917, the US started sending troops to France. By May of 1918, over a million US troops were stationed at the front with another million in reserve. With US involvement, the war dragged on and by November 1918, the Central Powers surrendered.
They simply ran out of soldiers, food, fuel, guns and bullets.
如果法国战败，同盟国就会将英国赶出欧洲大陆。英国国内要应对社会动荡，爱尔兰还酝酿着内战，这迫使英国不得不向爱尔兰派驻军队。此外，大英帝国已开始走向衰落，还有诸多其他事务让英国分心。
之后在1917年6月，美国开始向法国派遣军队。到1918年5月，已有超过100万美军驻扎在前线，另有100万美军作为后备力量。在美国的介入下，战争陷入持久战，到1918年11月，同盟国宣布投降。
他们只是耗尽了士兵、粮食、燃料、枪支和弹药。
Neil Wells，Studied at Poorly educated but more knowable than modern day humanty graduates!
曾表示“受教育程度不高，但比当今大学毕业生更有见识”
Yes and no! Germany could have won the Great War, however as it stood, not by any great planning or actions on their part, but by the incompetence of their enemies, namely their enemies could have easily lost the war and not by Germany winning it!
This all sounds very negative, but the simple fact was that when Germany went to war in August 1914, the German Great General Staff knew that the numbers did not add up! The number of soldiers available to the central powers (Austro-Hungarians, the Italians and themselves) were less than those available to their enemies, namely the French and the Russians. They were doubtful that the Italians would honour their agreement (especially since the German plan was aggressive and the agreement was defensive), and what the British intentions were going to be, which would probably lead to a greater differential of manpower against them.
In popular myth, the German opening move almost worked. However, in reality this is not true and it was never going to work, due to manpower numbers. This the German chief of staff, von Moltke, understood beforehand and therefore believed his plan had little chance of success (less than 50% chance).
答案是“既有可能，也没可能”！德国本可以赢得一战，但从当时的情况来看，这并非凭借德国自身出色的规划或行动，而是依靠其敌人的无能——也就是说，是敌人本可能轻易输掉战争，而非德国主动赢得战争！
这听起来可能很消极，但一个简单的事实是，1914年8月德国参战时，德国总参谋部就知道兵力数字对他们不利！同盟国（奥匈帝国、意大利和德国自身）可动用的士兵数量少于其敌人（即法国和俄国）。他们怀疑意大利是否会履行协议（尤其是因为德国的计划具有侵略性，而该协议本是防御性的），也不确定英国的意图，这很可能会导致双方人力差距进一步扩大，对德国更为不利。
在大众传说中，德国最初的进攻行动险些成功。但事实上，由于兵力不足，这一行动从未有过成功的可能。德国总参谋长冯·毛奇早已明白这一点，因此他认为自己的计划成功概率很低（不足50%）。
There are a number of reasons why it appears to have almost been successful. The first of these reasons was the French government refused Joffre (French chief of staff) permission to attack the Germans in Belguim without an invitation from the Belgian government, giving the Germans a massive head start! The second reason was that the initial French moves were to launch attacks into Lorraine and the Ardennes, which proved to be monumental failures.
However, the French were not the only ones to make mistakes, likewise the Germans did too. Indeed, the Germans made more mistakes than the French, which were quickly grossed over! Apart from manpower, an underestimation of the speed of Russian mobilisation, communications, logistics, bad intelligence, and non existent reconnaissance proved to be the undoing of their master plan.
From bad beginnings, it did not become any better for the Germans and the manpower problems only became worst as the war progressed. The only period where the Germans had near parity with their enemies was in the late winter / early spring of 1918, when the Russian had been knocked out of the war and the Americans had not the numbers of trained men in France, ready for action. So, what did the Germans do? They wasted their manpower on costly offensives that went nowhere!
之所以看起来德国的行动险些成功，原因有很多。首先，在没有得到比利时政府邀请的情况下，法国政府拒绝了法军总参谋长霞飞进攻在比利时境内德军的请求，这让德国获得了巨大的先发优势！其次，法军最初的行动是向洛林和阿登地区发起进攻，结果证明这些进攻都是惨败。
然而，并非只有法国犯错，德国也同样犯了错。事实上，德国犯的错比法国还多，只是这些错误很快被掩盖了！除了兵力不足，对俄国动员速度的低估、通信不畅、后勤问题、糟糕的情报以及缺失的侦察，都成为了导致其总体计划失败的原因。
开局不利之后，德国的处境并未好转，而且随着战争的推进，兵力问题愈发严重。德国唯一与敌人兵力接近持平的时期是1918年末冬初春，当时俄国已退出战争，而美国在法国的训练有素且可投入战斗的兵力尚未形成规模。可德国做了什么呢？他们将人力浪费在了代价高昂却毫无进展的进攻上！
Could the Germans have won the Great War? The first was to correct the errors in their prewar planning, especially the six points mentioned above, for example, it was assumed that the Belguim railway system would fall intact to the Germany Army as they advanced, when in fact it was made unserviceable by the retreating Belgians. Instead of relaying on wishful thinking, then perhaps the German Army command should have invested more in motor transport, instead of building very expensive battleships for a navy going nowhere! The biggest problem by the German planners was that there was no ‘Plan B’.
Finally, the Germans needed their enemies to make more and bigger mistakes than themselves, which they did not!
德国本可以赢得一战吗？首先，他们本该修正战前规划中的错误，尤其是上述六点。例如，德国曾假设在推进过程中，比利时铁路系统会完好无损地落入德军手中，但事实上，撤退的比利时人早已将其破坏，无法使用。德国陆军指挥部本不该抱有侥幸心理，而应加大对汽车运输的投入，而非为一支毫无作为的海军建造造价高昂的战列舰！德国规划者面临的最大问题是，他们根本没有“备选方案”。
最后，德国需要其敌人犯下比自己更多、更大的错误，但敌人并没有这样做！
Cameron Greene，Historian by trade, Thucydidean in practice
职业历史学家，践行修昔底德式历史研究方法
There was one point and only one point where the Germans were at their closest to victory, the beginning stages of the war.
Had Helmuth von Moltke the Younger, the overall German commander in the West not altered the Schlieffen Plan drastically from its original format, remained level-headed, and commanded effectively at the Battle of the Marne, Germany very well would have won World War 1.
The annals of military history will forever damn this man as a major reason for Germany's failure in World War 1, his nerves broken and his ideas terrible.
德国只有一次，也仅有一次最接近胜利，那就是在战争初期。
如果西线德军总指挥小赫尔穆特·冯·毛奇没有对施里芬计划的原始方案进行大幅修改，能保持冷静，并在马恩河战役中有效指挥，德国本可以赢得一战。
军事史的记载将永远把他视为德国在一战中失败的主要原因之一——他意志崩溃，决策糟糕。
Foolish Changes
愚蠢的修改
The Schlieffen Plan was always intended to push France out of the war before Russia could come back and bite her right in the ass. The idea was that a rapid advance through Belgium, regardless of their neutrality, would cut-throw defending forces and open a door into France itself. They would push for Paris, just as they had in the Franco-Prussian War, before swinging down to encircle defending Entente forces along the French-German border.
施里芬计划的初衷始终是在俄国能反过来反击德国之前，将法国赶出战争。该计划的思路是，无论比利时是否中立，德军都要迅速穿越比利时，突破防御部队，打开进入法国本土的通道。就像普法战争时期那样，德军会向巴黎推进，随后转而南下，包围法德边境沿线的协约国防御部队。
Von Moltke shot himself in the foot well before the war even began, modifying the plan drastically before the war. The critical change came through his abandonment of attacking through the Netherlands and moving large portions of the German Army to the Alsace-Lorraine regions.
早在战争爆发前，毛奇就搬起石头砸了自己的脚——他在战前对计划进行了大幅修改。其中关键的修改是，他放弃了经由荷兰进攻的路线，并将德军的大部分兵力调往阿尔萨斯-洛林地区。
Avoiding the Netherlands cost von Moltke dearly, denying access to the vital railways around Maastricht and forcing von Moltke to push the 1st and 2nd German Armies through a gap 12 miles wide in Belgium. The logistics of this were unheard of and the entire timetable would be thrown into flux on the gamble of invading solely through Belgium.
避开荷兰让毛奇付出了沉重代价，德军无法使用马斯特里赫特周边至关重要的铁路，毛奇不得不迫使德国第一、第二集团军从比利时境内一个12英里宽的缺口推进。这样的后勤安排是前所未有的，仅靠入侵比利时这一孤注一掷的行动，整个作战时间表陷入了混乱。
Moving large parts of the German Army proved disastrous to the Schlieffen Plan’s time table, the Belgian Army holding out for 13 weeks with support from the British Expeditionary Force against the reduced might of the German Army in the north. This loss of time and stagnation of progress allowed for the Great Retreat which saved a plethora of troops and reinforced them along the River Marne. These troops would prove vital in the Battle of the Marne.
将德军大部分兵力调走，对施里芬计划的时间表造成了灾难性影响。在英国远征军的支援下，比利时军队凭借北部德军被削弱的兵力，坚守了13周。时间的延误和进展的停滞使得协约国军队得以实施“大撤退”，保存了大量兵力，并在马恩河沿岸重新部署。这些兵力在马恩河战役中起到了至关重要的作用。
Broken Nerves
崩溃的意志
The Schlieffen Plan always counted on Russia not being able to mobilize for at least six weeks. There was only one problem, Russia did it in three. With her forces mobilized, Russia began her offensives into East Germany. This sudden development panicked von Moltke who transferred significant portions of the German Army from the West to the East, despite field commanders dismissing their need. They never had any effect, only reaching the East once the Russians had lost all offensive momentum. In a state of panic, von Moltke had made a dexerious decision that would come to harm him in his next disaster, the Battle of the Marne.
施里芬计划始终寄望于俄国至少需要六周时间才能完成动员。但问题在于，俄国仅用三周就完成了动员。兵力动员完成后，俄国开始向东德发起进攻。这一突发情况让毛奇陷入恐慌，尽管战地指挥官认为无需增兵，他还是将德军的大量兵力从西线调往东线。这些兵力最终毫无作用，只是在俄军完全丧失进攻势头后才抵达东线。在恐慌状态下，毛奇做出了这一有害决策，而这一决策在之后的马恩河战役灾难中，进一步对他造成了不利影响。
Catastrophic Leadership
灾难性的指挥
As a result of his panic-induced decision, von Moltke had weakened his forces advancing through Belgium even further. By shifting two corps of the German Army from the Western Front to the East, von Moltke had unintentionally weakened his advancing forces.
由于这一恐慌下的决策，毛奇进一步削弱了正在穿越比利时推进的部队。将德军两个军从西线调往东线，毛奇在无意间削弱了进攻部队的实力。
By late August, it had become clear it had become clear that von Moltke had effectively lost control of his armies. The German 1st Army and German 2nd Army, under the command von Kluck and von Bülow respectively, were charging well ahead of expectations and as a result, communication lines became hazy at best between the field commanders and von Moltke himself. This lack of communication became apparent when the offensives of both armies fell out of synch and opened up a gap near Paris that the BEF and the French exploited. As a result, the 2nd German Army was in very grave danger of being cut off and the field commanders thought best to avoid an encirclement and retreat the 2nd Army to more favorable positioning. This resulted in a earlier turn into the interior of France than was intended, east of Paris. This would become the setup for the First Battle of the Marne where German forces were defeated, halting their advance into France.
到8月底，很明显，毛奇实际上已经失去了对军队的控制。分别由冯·克卢克和冯·比洛指挥的德国第一集团军和第二集团军，推进速度远超预期，导致战地指挥官与毛奇本人之间的通信线路充其量也只是模糊不清。当这两个集团军的进攻步伐不同步，在巴黎附近出现一个缺口，并被英国远征军和法军利用时，这种通信不畅的问题就变得尤为明显。结果，德国第二集团军面临被切断退路的严重危险，战地指挥官认为最好避免被包围，于是将第二集团军撤退到更有利的位置。这导致德军比原定计划更早地转向法国腹地，进入了巴黎以东地区。而这一局面为第一次马恩河战役埋下了伏笔——德军在该战役中战败，向法国的推进就此停滞。
Failure at the Marne resulted in the retreat of German forces to the frontiers of the offensive. The retreat did little to help von Moltke's command who subsequently had a nervous breakdown at the news that they had just lost 56 miles of territory and over 14,000 prisoners. His subordinates took charge and situated the Army at Aisne where they dug trenches and prepared for the advancing British and French, effectively starting trench warfare on the Western Front.
It was all or nothing for the Germans on the Western Front in the months of August and September, at no other point would they come so close to victory. Only foolish changes, broken nerves, and catastrophic leadership by Helmuth von Moltke saved France from certain defeat.
马恩河战役的失败导致德军撤退到进攻的前沿阵地。这次撤退对毛奇的指挥毫无帮助，当得知德军刚刚丢失了56英里的领土，并被俘1.4万多人时，他随后精神崩溃。他的下属接管了指挥权，将军队部署在埃纳河地区，挖掘战壕，准备应对推进的英、法军队，西线的堑壕战也由此正式开始。
在8月和9月这两个月里，德军在西线的处境是要么全胜，要么全败，此后他们再也没有如此接近胜利过。正是小赫尔穆特·冯·毛奇愚蠢的修改、崩溃的意志和灾难性的指挥，才让法国免于必败的命运。
John Crane，Fan of science
科学爱好者
Prior to the war Russia was slowly modernizing its army. Germany went to war, in part, because victory was more likely in 1914 than in years to come.
There were, however, some surprises that would muck up their first best chance to win.
战前，俄国正在缓慢推进军队现代化。德国参战的部分原因是，1914年获胜的可能性比未来几年都要大。
然而，一些意外情况却打乱了他们赢得战争的最佳首次机会。
1) Russia was able to mobilize more quickly than Germany calculated. This caused Germany to move troops West to East.
2) Britain joined the war after the invasion of Belgium. While not a shocking surprise, there was the chance Britain would sit this one out.
3) The Belgians put up a tougher fight than expected. The Schlieffen Plan was always going to be tight. Success required staying on the timeline. The Battle of Liège alone delayed the German advance by 4 or 5 days. Four days might have meant that there would be no "Miracle of the Marne" to stop the German advance.
4) The Austro-Hungarian military was utterly incompetent and sucked more German resources from the Western Front.
1）俄国的动员速度比德国预计的要快，这迫使德国将军队从西线调往东线。
2）德国入侵比利时后，英国参战。尽管这并非令人震惊的意外，但英国本有可能置身事外。
3）比利时人的抵抗比预期的更为顽强。施里芬计划的时间安排本就十分紧张，要想成功就必须严格遵守时间表。仅列日战役就使德军的推进延误了4到5天。而这4天的时间，或许就意味着不会有阻止德军推进的“马恩河奇迹”了。
4）奥匈帝国军队完全无能，从西线消耗了德国更多的资源。
Before these card were dealt, victory looked very achievable.
在这些意外情况发生之前，胜利看起来是完全可以实现的。
Scott Keyes，
Studied at University of California, DavisUpvoted by Brady Swanson, Studied history extensively for six years
曾就读于加利福尼亚大学戴维斯分校，获得布雷迪·斯旺森（曾广泛研究历史六年）的点赞
The definition of “Win” is very critical here. Other people are going into the ‘what ifs’ of the military victory they could have achieved by maneuver in the field against other formations… But then ask the question “Could the Imperial German Army have successfully and meaningfully occupied a territory stretching from the Pyrenees to the Urals? Its a question even modern generals (or is it politicians?) seem to overlook. The answer I believe is ‘no’. They were already having plenty of trouble with the occupation of Belgium and the parts of France they had. stretch those formations out to occupy that amount of territory… and the millions of people who hated them even more for their brutal occupation policies and very likely they’d have seen how *thin* the idea of simply defeating the armies in the field turned into as a ‘victory’ after only a very few years.
此处对“获胜”的定义至关重要。其他人都在探讨德国通过在战场上调动兵力对抗其他部队，本可实现军事胜利的“假设情况”……但不妨提出这样一个问题：“德意志帝国陆军是否能够成功且有意义地占领从比利牛斯山脉延伸到乌拉尔山脉的领土？” 这个问题似乎连现代将军（或者应该说是政治家？）都忽略了。我认为答案是否定的。当时德军在占领比利时以及已攻占的法国部分地区时，就已经遇到了诸多麻烦。要是再分散兵力去占领如此广阔的领土……而且数百万人会因德军残酷的占领政策而更加憎恨他们，那么很可能只需几年时间，德军就会发现，仅仅在战场上击败敌军部队，这种“胜利”的想法是多么不切实际。
评论翻译
Zhaun Christian Sederio，Studied at Makati Science High School
曾就读于马卡蒂科学高中
Yes, definitely if they have done these things:
Avoiding a two-front war : The number 1 lesson Germany have probably learned from the 20th century is that “Never fight on two fronts”. Well, many says that Germany could have defended the line in Alsace-Lorraine and attack RUSSIA, well it’s not good. Germany could have focused more on France and follow the Schlieffen Plan. The key is to focus the army to France and then transfer the troops by rail to settle the Eastern Front. That is why they have an ally. They could have instructed the Austrians to hold it with minimal German intervention. Russia did attack East Prussia but was annihilated at the Battle of Tannenberg. They lost 170,000 men to just 12,000 Germans in one of history's most famous battles of encirclement. Yet Moltke transferred three valuable corps that could have strengthened the plan to invade Belgium and eventually France. They could have let Russia advance a little further to to East Prussia and cripple their supply lines and let Austria to outflank them or vice versa. And when the Belgium Offensive is won or the western front stabilized then they could have finished the Russians. Austria-Hungary for Russia, Ottoman Empire for the Balkans and Germany for the West and Italy. Remember, Russia is in the attack, they are not going to be dedicated enough to fight like the way they always do when the motherland is at risk.
是的，如果德国做了以下这些事，就绝对有机会获胜：
避免两线作战：德国或许从20世纪吸取的首要教训就是“永远不要陷入两线作战”。很多人认为，德国本可以防守阿尔萨斯-洛林战线，转而进攻俄国，但这并非良策。德国本应更专注于对付法国，并执行施里芬计划。关键在于集中兵力攻打法国，之后通过铁路调兵去平定东线。这正是德国拥有盟友的意义所在，他们本可以命令奥地利人在德国最小限度干预的情况下守住东线。俄国确实进攻了东普鲁士，却在坦能堡战役中全军覆没。在这场历史上最著名的合围战役之一中，俄军损失17万人，而德军仅损失1.2万人。然而，毛奇却调走了三个精锐军——这些兵力本可以加强入侵比利时并最终攻打法国的计划。德国本可以让俄国向东普鲁士再推进一段距离，随后切断其补给线，再让奥地利军队从侧翼包抄俄军，反之亦然。等到比利时攻势获胜或西线局势稳定后，他们再全力消灭俄军。让奥匈帝国对付俄国，奥斯曼帝国应对巴尔干地区，德国则负责西线和意大利方向。要记住，俄国当时处于进攻方，他们不会像祖国面临危险时那样全力作战。
Dax Theo Born in the USA
出生于美国
Yes. Both before and during the war. Things were a bit on a knife edge during the Battle of the Marne in 1914.
是的，德国在战前和战时都有获胜机会。1914年的马恩河战役期间，局势更是处于紧要关头。
First Battle of the Marne - Wikipedia
第一次马恩河战役——维基百科
Of course, even had the Germans taken Paris, the French may simply have kept retreating, but with much of France’s Northern industrial base and the capital in enemy hands (and Isle de France is France’s heartland), then it is less likely for France to be able to prosecute the war well.
A more interesting scenario is the view from Berlin in the summer of 1914 as World War 1 was beginning to break out. For the Germans (and Austrians), largely expect their treaty ally, Italy, to join the war on their side. It is true that the Triple Alliance was a defensive alliance, and so Italy was not obligated to join the war. However, given their treaty relations, it seemed likely that Italy would join the war on the German side.
当然，即便德军攻占了巴黎，法军或许还会继续撤退，但法国北部的大部分工业基地和首都一旦落入敌手（而且法兰西岛是法国的核心地区），法国就不太可能再顺利地继续作战了。
一个更有意思的设想是，1914年夏天一战即将爆发时，柏林方面的看法。德国人和奥地利人大多期望他们的盟友意大利能加入己方作战。诚然，三国同盟是一个防御性同盟，意大利并没有义务参战。但考虑到彼此的盟约关系，意大利似乎（确实）有可能会站在德国这边。
This would have been a vastly different war. In our timeline, Italy joins the Entente of Britain, France, and Russia to gain “Italian” territories in Austria-Hungary (mostly along the coast of Croatia). Italy had regained Venice from Austria as recently as 1866, less than 50 years before the beginning of the Great War. And Italy wanted parts of the old Venetian Empire from Austria to join their defensive allies The Central Powers in World War 1. Italy was quite mercenary about which side it joined in the war. In the end, the Austrian-Italian front didn’t move very far - but it was extremely bloody. Italians barely pushed the Austrians back and in 1917, Germany and Austria pushed into Italy, almost taking Venice. It wasn’t until (October…) 1918 that Italy pushed pushed the Austrians out of Italy.
While Italy had former territories it wanted from Austria, there were other territories in France it could have focused on in Savoy and Nice (in South Eastern France along the Italian border). These were territories which previously were part of the House of Savoy up until 1860. This is in addition to Corsica in the Mediterranean, which has (even today) quite the independence streak.
那样的话，这场战争将会截然不同。在我们所处的历史时间线中，意大利为了夺取奥匈帝国境内的“意大利人聚居区”（主要沿克罗地亚海岸），加入了英、法、俄组成的协约国。意大利早在1866年就从奥地利手中夺回了威尼斯，这距离一战爆发还不到50年。而且意大利希望从奥地利手中夺取昔日威尼斯帝国的部分领土，却在一战中加入了其防御盟友同盟国阵营。意大利在选择加入哪一方时颇具功利性。最终，奥意战线的推进幅度并不大，但战斗却异常惨烈。意大利人好不容易才将奥地利人击退，而在1917年，德国和奥地利军队攻入意大利，险些夺取威尼斯。直到1918年10月左右，意大利才将奥地利人赶出本国领土。
尽管意大利想从奥地利手中夺回旧有领土，但法国境内也有其他领土可供其觊觎，比如萨伏依和尼斯（位于法国东南部，毗邻意大利边境）。这些领土在1860年之前一直属于萨伏依王朝。除此之外，地中海的科西嘉岛（即便在如今）也有着强烈的独立倾向。
If Italy had joined the Central Powers in 1914, it is likely that Germany would have won World War 1. Much is made of the two front war that Germany fought in World War 1, with France and Britain on one side and Russia on the other. However, Italy joining the Central Powers would have given France a second Front. It is true that much of the Franco-Italian border is mountainous, but the same was true of the Italo-Austrian border in 1914. Italy also had the option to move toward the West toward Marseilles.
Given that France almost lost Paris in 1914 in our time line without any Italian intervention, an Italian invasion into France in 1914 would have drawn away vital military resources that France needed to force Germany into the stalemate that characterized the Western front until 1918.
如果意大利在1914年加入了同盟国，德国很可能就赢得了一战。人们常常强调德国在一战中陷入了两线作战的困境，一边要对抗法英，另一边要对付俄国。然而，意大利加入同盟国的话，法国就会面临第二条战线。诚然，法意边境的大部分地区都是山地，但1914年的奥意边境也是如此。意大利还可以选择向西进军，攻打马赛。
在我们所处的历史时间线中，即便没有意大利的干预，法国在1914年也险些丢失巴黎。倘若意大利在1914年入侵法国，就会牵制法国的关键军事资源，而这些资源正是法国迫使德国陷入1918年前西线典型僵局所必需的。
An Italian invasion of France in August 1914 would have split French forces. France barely held the Germans in 1914. France would have had a desperate choice: stop the Germans in the from taking Paris or let the Italians take Marseille and possible even Lyon. Likely, France would have crumbled across both fronts and the World War would have been over by Christmas, just as promised.
Even if Italy had remained neutral in the World War, this would have freed up many Austria (and later German) troops, likely seeing the collapse of Russia sooner and making the 1918 German Spring Offensive even more effective, perhaps decisive.
1914年8月意大利入侵法国，会使法军兵力分散。1914年时，法国本就勉强抵挡着德军的进攻，届时将面临艰难抉择：要么阻止德军攻占巴黎，要么任由意大利夺取马赛，甚至可能还有里昂。很可能的结果是，法国在两条战线都会崩溃，而一战也会如当初承诺的那样在圣诞节前结束。
即便意大利在一战中保持中立，也会释放大量奥地利（以及后来德国）的军队，这可能会加速俄国的崩溃，并使1918年德国的春季攻势更具成效，甚至可能起到决定性作用。
What would Italy have received in return? If Italy had joined the war, she would have received likely what Italy had “under supervision” during the Second World War - Corsica, Savoy, Nice, Geneva, and possibly even Lyon and Marseille. France would not only have the grudge of Alsace-Lorraine, but also Nice-Savoy-Corsica. It would have been a different world.
意大利能得到什么回报呢？如果意大利参战，它很可能会获得二战期间意大利“在监管下”所拥有的领土——科西嘉岛、萨伏依、尼斯、日内瓦，甚至可能还有里昂和马赛。这样一来，法国不仅会对阿尔萨斯-洛林地区的丢失心怀怨恨，还会为尼斯-萨伏依-科西嘉地区的丧失而不满，世界也将是另一番景象。
Josiah Greenbrier
Germany was pretty much winning by 1917. The Russians were essentially beaten and would soon be knocked out of the war; the French military was in a state of mutiny. With Russia gone, that meant that the German High Command could now begin to transfer its numerous divisions from the east to the west and start concentrating on the western front.
What changed everything was the entry of the United States into the war. Unfortunately for the Germans, their leadership made a series of boneheaded decisions that practically begged for the US to join on the side of the Allies.
到1917年时，德国几乎已经胜券在握。俄国基本上已被击败，很快就会退出战争；法国军队则处于兵变状态。俄国的退出意味着德国最高统帅部现在可以开始将大量师级部队从东线调往西线，并集中精力应对西线战事。
改变一切的是美国参战。对德国而言不幸的是，其领导层做出了一系列愚蠢的决策，几乎是在促使美国加入协约国一方。
It changed everything because it gave the Allies a huge supply of fresh troops to bolster their ranks as well as access to America’s vast supplies, just as Britain was showing the first signs of difficulty getting enough food for its army and people. As alluded to above, the French Army mutinies showed that the French Army was already at the breaking point. The British Expeditionary Force — Kitchener’s Army — was much smaller than the French contingent, and there was no way the BEF could have survived without the French against the Germans. The British also had the additional new distraction of the 1916 Easter Rising and looming civil war in Ireland, forcing them to use much-needed troops to fight there (and reduce their supply of Irish soldiers). Both British and French troops were exhausted and on their last legs, while the Germans were jubilant thanks to the collapse of the Russian Empire.
美国参战之所以能改变局势，是因为它为协约国提供了大量生力军来扩充兵力，还让协约国得以获取美国丰富的物资供应。而当时英国刚刚显现出难以为本国军队和民众获取足够粮食的迹象。正如前文所提及的，法军兵变表明法军已处于崩溃边缘。英国远征军（即基钦纳的军队）的规模远小于法国部队，如果没有法军的配合，英国远征军根本无法独自对抗德军。此外，1916年的复活节起义以及爱尔兰即将爆发的内战，也让英国分心，迫使他们调遣急需的兵力前往爱尔兰作战（这也减少了爱尔兰士兵的供给）。此时，英、法军队都已疲惫不堪、濒临极限，而德国则因俄罗斯帝国的崩溃而欢欣鼓舞。
Thing is, it was by no means clear that the US would enter the war at all, and even if it did, there was a pretty good chance they could have joined on the side of the Germans and Central Powers. The US had a very large number of German immigrants sympathetic to the fatherland. In those days many Americans still spoke German as a first or second language, being recent immigrants or the children of immigrants. (One of the newspapers in the US with the largest circulation in those days was the New Yorker Staats-Zeitung. Most major cities had a German-language major newspaper.) Britain, meanwhile, was after all still the old enemy at that point — the Revolution and War of 1812, plus British support for the Confederacy during the Civil War, left a lot of bad blood. Had the Germans played their cards right, the US simply would have stayed out or maybe even helped them.
关键在于，当时根本无法确定美国是否会参战，即便美国参战，也有很大可能会加入德国和同盟国一方。美国有大量德国移民，他们对祖国心怀同情。在那个年代，许多美国人要么是新移民，要么是移民后代，仍将德语作为第一或第二语言。（当时美国发行量最大的报纸之一是《纽约州报》，大多数主要城市都有一份重要的德语报纸。）与此同时，英国在当时毕竟仍是美国的宿敌——美国独立战争、1812年战争，再加上美国内战期间英国对南部邦联的支持，都留下了很深的积怨。如果德国当时决策得当，美国完全可能保持中立，甚至可能援助德国。
The boneheaded decisions on the part of the Germans can be summed up in two areas:
德国的愚蠢决策主要可归结为两个方面：
The U-boat campaign and unrestricted submarine warfare antagonized the American public, as it targeted neutral shipping (including American ships) and American citizens were dying as German U-boats sank ships by the dozen. The US protested repeatedly, but the Germans largely ignored them. This reached a low point with the sinking of the RMS Lusitania, which shocked American public opinion, and British intelligence as well as pro-British press magnates in the US (who were after all competing with German-language newspapers and often were anti-immigrant) took advantage of this by playing up the horror stories in the American media. The hamfisted, high-handed German diplomatic response to American anger only made things far worse.
U艇作战（在德语里也是潜艇的意思）和无限制潜艇战激怒了美国民众，因为这种战法以中立国船只（包括美国船只）为目标，德国潜艇击沉了数十艘船只，导致美国公民丧生。美国多次提出抗议，但德国大多置之不理。卢西塔尼亚号邮轮的沉没让局势跌至谷底，这一事件震惊了美国舆论。而英国情报部门以及美国国内亲英的报业巨头（他们毕竟要与德语报纸竞争，且往往持反移民立场）趁机在美国媒体上大肆渲染这一恐怖事件。面对美国的愤怒，德国采取了笨拙、高压的外交回应，这只会让事情变得更糟。
The other was the infamous Zimmermann Telegram, a diplomatic note to the Mexicans from Germany that was intercepted by British intelligence and gleefully forwarded to the American media and government. The note essentially promised Mexico it would regain its lost territory in the American Southwest if it joined Germany in going to war against America. The content of the note was so explosive and so over the top that even many pro-British Americans refused to believe it was true — then the ambassador who wrote it, Zimmermann, publicly said it was true, first to an American journalist on 3 March, then in a speech to the German Reichstag a little later on 29 March. Germany had been trying to goad Mexico and the US into war with each other since 1914, with limited success. Yet this was such a blatant provocation that there was no way the US could ignore it — and the Germans not only did not do damage control, they flaunted it.
Had the US stayed out, Germany would almost certainly have won the war after a French collapse and British negotiated withdrawal.
另一个决策是臭名昭著的“齐默曼电报”。这是德国发给墨西哥的一封外交照会，被英国情报部门截获后，英国欣然将其转发给了美国媒体和政府。该照会本质上承诺，如果墨西哥加入德国一方对美国开战，德国将帮助墨西哥夺回其在美国西南部失去的领土。照会内容极具煽动性且过分离谱，即便许多亲英的美国人也不愿相信这是真的——但撰写这封电报的大使齐默曼却公开承认了其真实性，他先是在3月3日对一名美国记者承认，随后又在3月29日向德国国会发表演讲时再次确认。自1914年以来，德国一直试图挑动墨西哥与美国开战，但收效甚微。而这次的电报事件是如此明目张胆的挑衅，美国根本无法忽视——可德国不仅没有采取补救措施，反而还大肆炫耀。
如果美国没有参战，在法国崩溃、英国通过谈判撤军之后，德国几乎肯定会赢得这场战争。
Paul Kraase，Studied Noise, Vibration, and Harshness (NVH) & Master of Business Administration Degrees at Purdue University Global (Graduated 1993)
曾在普渡大学全球分校攻读噪声、振动与声振粗糙度（NVH）专业及工商管理硕士学位（1993年毕业）
The correct question should actually be: “Did the Central Powers have a realistic chance of winning WWI?”
While Germany was the dominate member of the Central Powers, the other major nations involved were Austria-Hungry, the Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria.
Now, on to the answer:
Absolutely the Central Powers did have a chance of winning, up until the US entered the conflict late in the war.
实际上，正确的问题应该是：“同盟国在一战中曾有切实的获胜机会吗？”
尽管德国是同盟国中的主导国家，但参与其中的其他主要国家还包括奥匈帝国、奥斯曼帝国和保加利亚。
接下来是答案：
在战争后期美国参战之前，同盟国绝对是有获胜机会的。
By 1917, the Central Powers were in a difficult position, but there was victory in sight. Russia was broken and revolution was brewing, causing them to withdraw from the conflict so they could focus on their internal problems. This allowed Germany to move 40 divisions from the Eastern Front to the Western Front.
At this time, the morale of the French and British troops was extremely low. With the French Army in full revolt, France was teetering on the brink and close to capitulation.
到1917年，同盟国虽处于困境，但胜利已然在望。俄国已元气大伤，革命正在酝酿之中，这使得俄国不得不退出战争，以便专注于解决国内问题。这让德国得以将40个师从东线调往西线。
此时，法、英军队的士气极低。法军全面兵变，法国正处于崩溃边缘，濒临投降。
If the French were defeated, then the Central Powers would have pushed the British off the European continent. Britain had social unrest at home to deal with, also a civil war brewing in Ireland so they were forced to commit troops there. This was in addition to all the other distractions of an empire beginning to crumble.
Then in June of 1917, the US started sending troops to France. By May of 1918, over a million US troops were stationed at the front with another million in reserve. With US involvement, the war dragged on and by November 1918, the Central Powers surrendered.
They simply ran out of soldiers, food, fuel, guns and bullets.
如果法国战败，同盟国就会将英国赶出欧洲大陆。英国国内要应对社会动荡，爱尔兰还酝酿着内战，这迫使英国不得不向爱尔兰派驻军队。此外，大英帝国已开始走向衰落，还有诸多其他事务让英国分心。
之后在1917年6月，美国开始向法国派遣军队。到1918年5月，已有超过100万美军驻扎在前线，另有100万美军作为后备力量。在美国的介入下，战争陷入持久战，到1918年11月，同盟国宣布投降。
他们只是耗尽了士兵、粮食、燃料、枪支和弹药。
Neil Wells，Studied at Poorly educated but more knowable than modern day humanty graduates!
曾表示“受教育程度不高，但比当今大学毕业生更有见识”
Yes and no! Germany could have won the Great War, however as it stood, not by any great planning or actions on their part, but by the incompetence of their enemies, namely their enemies could have easily lost the war and not by Germany winning it!
This all sounds very negative, but the simple fact was that when Germany went to war in August 1914, the German Great General Staff knew that the numbers did not add up! The number of soldiers available to the central powers (Austro-Hungarians, the Italians and themselves) were less than those available to their enemies, namely the French and the Russians. They were doubtful that the Italians would honour their agreement (especially since the German plan was aggressive and the agreement was defensive), and what the British intentions were going to be, which would probably lead to a greater differential of manpower against them.
In popular myth, the German opening move almost worked. However, in reality this is not true and it was never going to work, due to manpower numbers. This the German chief of staff, von Moltke, understood beforehand and therefore believed his plan had little chance of success (less than 50% chance).
答案是“既有可能，也没可能”！德国本可以赢得一战，但从当时的情况来看，这并非凭借德国自身出色的规划或行动，而是依靠其敌人的无能——也就是说，是敌人本可能轻易输掉战争，而非德国主动赢得战争！
这听起来可能很消极，但一个简单的事实是，1914年8月德国参战时，德国总参谋部就知道兵力数字对他们不利！同盟国（奥匈帝国、意大利和德国自身）可动用的士兵数量少于其敌人（即法国和俄国）。他们怀疑意大利是否会履行协议（尤其是因为德国的计划具有侵略性，而该协议本是防御性的），也不确定英国的意图，这很可能会导致双方人力差距进一步扩大，对德国更为不利。
在大众传说中，德国最初的进攻行动险些成功。但事实上，由于兵力不足，这一行动从未有过成功的可能。德国总参谋长冯·毛奇早已明白这一点，因此他认为自己的计划成功概率很低（不足50%）。
There are a number of reasons why it appears to have almost been successful. The first of these reasons was the French government refused Joffre (French chief of staff) permission to attack the Germans in Belguim without an invitation from the Belgian government, giving the Germans a massive head start! The second reason was that the initial French moves were to launch attacks into Lorraine and the Ardennes, which proved to be monumental failures.
However, the French were not the only ones to make mistakes, likewise the Germans did too. Indeed, the Germans made more mistakes than the French, which were quickly grossed over! Apart from manpower, an underestimation of the speed of Russian mobilisation, communications, logistics, bad intelligence, and non existent reconnaissance proved to be the undoing of their master plan.
From bad beginnings, it did not become any better for the Germans and the manpower problems only became worst as the war progressed. The only period where the Germans had near parity with their enemies was in the late winter / early spring of 1918, when the Russian had been knocked out of the war and the Americans had not the numbers of trained men in France, ready for action. So, what did the Germans do? They wasted their manpower on costly offensives that went nowhere!
之所以看起来德国的行动险些成功，原因有很多。首先，在没有得到比利时政府邀请的情况下，法国政府拒绝了法军总参谋长霞飞进攻在比利时境内德军的请求，这让德国获得了巨大的先发优势！其次，法军最初的行动是向洛林和阿登地区发起进攻，结果证明这些进攻都是惨败。
然而，并非只有法国犯错，德国也同样犯了错。事实上，德国犯的错比法国还多，只是这些错误很快被掩盖了！除了兵力不足，对俄国动员速度的低估、通信不畅、后勤问题、糟糕的情报以及缺失的侦察，都成为了导致其总体计划失败的原因。
开局不利之后，德国的处境并未好转，而且随着战争的推进，兵力问题愈发严重。德国唯一与敌人兵力接近持平的时期是1918年末冬初春，当时俄国已退出战争，而美国在法国的训练有素且可投入战斗的兵力尚未形成规模。可德国做了什么呢？他们将人力浪费在了代价高昂却毫无进展的进攻上！
Could the Germans have won the Great War? The first was to correct the errors in their prewar planning, especially the six points mentioned above, for example, it was assumed that the Belguim railway system would fall intact to the Germany Army as they advanced, when in fact it was made unserviceable by the retreating Belgians. Instead of relaying on wishful thinking, then perhaps the German Army command should have invested more in motor transport, instead of building very expensive battleships for a navy going nowhere! The biggest problem by the German planners was that there was no ‘Plan B’.
Finally, the Germans needed their enemies to make more and bigger mistakes than themselves, which they did not!
德国本可以赢得一战吗？首先，他们本该修正战前规划中的错误，尤其是上述六点。例如，德国曾假设在推进过程中，比利时铁路系统会完好无损地落入德军手中，但事实上，撤退的比利时人早已将其破坏，无法使用。德国陆军指挥部本不该抱有侥幸心理，而应加大对汽车运输的投入，而非为一支毫无作为的海军建造造价高昂的战列舰！德国规划者面临的最大问题是，他们根本没有“备选方案”。
最后，德国需要其敌人犯下比自己更多、更大的错误，但敌人并没有这样做！
Cameron Greene，Historian by trade, Thucydidean in practice
职业历史学家，践行修昔底德式历史研究方法
There was one point and only one point where the Germans were at their closest to victory, the beginning stages of the war.
Had Helmuth von Moltke the Younger, the overall German commander in the West not altered the Schlieffen Plan drastically from its original format, remained level-headed, and commanded effectively at the Battle of the Marne, Germany very well would have won World War 1.
The annals of military history will forever damn this man as a major reason for Germany's failure in World War 1, his nerves broken and his ideas terrible.
德国只有一次，也仅有一次最接近胜利，那就是在战争初期。
如果西线德军总指挥小赫尔穆特·冯·毛奇没有对施里芬计划的原始方案进行大幅修改，能保持冷静，并在马恩河战役中有效指挥，德国本可以赢得一战。
军事史的记载将永远把他视为德国在一战中失败的主要原因之一——他意志崩溃，决策糟糕。
Foolish Changes
愚蠢的修改
The Schlieffen Plan was always intended to push France out of the war before Russia could come back and bite her right in the ass. The idea was that a rapid advance through Belgium, regardless of their neutrality, would cut-throw defending forces and open a door into France itself. They would push for Paris, just as they had in the Franco-Prussian War, before swinging down to encircle defending Entente forces along the French-German border.
施里芬计划的初衷始终是在俄国能反过来反击德国之前，将法国赶出战争。该计划的思路是，无论比利时是否中立，德军都要迅速穿越比利时，突破防御部队，打开进入法国本土的通道。就像普法战争时期那样，德军会向巴黎推进，随后转而南下，包围法德边境沿线的协约国防御部队。
Von Moltke shot himself in the foot well before the war even began, modifying the plan drastically before the war. The critical change came through his abandonment of attacking through the Netherlands and moving large portions of the German Army to the Alsace-Lorraine regions.
早在战争爆发前，毛奇就搬起石头砸了自己的脚——他在战前对计划进行了大幅修改。其中关键的修改是，他放弃了经由荷兰进攻的路线，并将德军的大部分兵力调往阿尔萨斯-洛林地区。
Avoiding the Netherlands cost von Moltke dearly, denying access to the vital railways around Maastricht and forcing von Moltke to push the 1st and 2nd German Armies through a gap 12 miles wide in Belgium. The logistics of this were unheard of and the entire timetable would be thrown into flux on the gamble of invading solely through Belgium.
避开荷兰让毛奇付出了沉重代价，德军无法使用马斯特里赫特周边至关重要的铁路，毛奇不得不迫使德国第一、第二集团军从比利时境内一个12英里宽的缺口推进。这样的后勤安排是前所未有的，仅靠入侵比利时这一孤注一掷的行动，整个作战时间表陷入了混乱。
Moving large parts of the German Army proved disastrous to the Schlieffen Plan’s time table, the Belgian Army holding out for 13 weeks with support from the British Expeditionary Force against the reduced might of the German Army in the north. This loss of time and stagnation of progress allowed for the Great Retreat which saved a plethora of troops and reinforced them along the River Marne. These troops would prove vital in the Battle of the Marne.
将德军大部分兵力调走，对施里芬计划的时间表造成了灾难性影响。在英国远征军的支援下，比利时军队凭借北部德军被削弱的兵力，坚守了13周。时间的延误和进展的停滞使得协约国军队得以实施“大撤退”，保存了大量兵力，并在马恩河沿岸重新部署。这些兵力在马恩河战役中起到了至关重要的作用。
Broken Nerves
崩溃的意志
The Schlieffen Plan always counted on Russia not being able to mobilize for at least six weeks. There was only one problem, Russia did it in three. With her forces mobilized, Russia began her offensives into East Germany. This sudden development panicked von Moltke who transferred significant portions of the German Army from the West to the East, despite field commanders dismissing their need. They never had any effect, only reaching the East once the Russians had lost all offensive momentum. In a state of panic, von Moltke had made a dexerious decision that would come to harm him in his next disaster, the Battle of the Marne.
施里芬计划始终寄望于俄国至少需要六周时间才能完成动员。但问题在于，俄国仅用三周就完成了动员。兵力动员完成后，俄国开始向东德发起进攻。这一突发情况让毛奇陷入恐慌，尽管战地指挥官认为无需增兵，他还是将德军的大量兵力从西线调往东线。这些兵力最终毫无作用，只是在俄军完全丧失进攻势头后才抵达东线。在恐慌状态下，毛奇做出了这一有害决策，而这一决策在之后的马恩河战役灾难中，进一步对他造成了不利影响。
Catastrophic Leadership
灾难性的指挥
As a result of his panic-induced decision, von Moltke had weakened his forces advancing through Belgium even further. By shifting two corps of the German Army from the Western Front to the East, von Moltke had unintentionally weakened his advancing forces.
由于这一恐慌下的决策，毛奇进一步削弱了正在穿越比利时推进的部队。将德军两个军从西线调往东线，毛奇在无意间削弱了进攻部队的实力。
By late August, it had become clear it had become clear that von Moltke had effectively lost control of his armies. The German 1st Army and German 2nd Army, under the command von Kluck and von Bülow respectively, were charging well ahead of expectations and as a result, communication lines became hazy at best between the field commanders and von Moltke himself. This lack of communication became apparent when the offensives of both armies fell out of synch and opened up a gap near Paris that the BEF and the French exploited. As a result, the 2nd German Army was in very grave danger of being cut off and the field commanders thought best to avoid an encirclement and retreat the 2nd Army to more favorable positioning. This resulted in a earlier turn into the interior of France than was intended, east of Paris. This would become the setup for the First Battle of the Marne where German forces were defeated, halting their advance into France.
到8月底，很明显，毛奇实际上已经失去了对军队的控制。分别由冯·克卢克和冯·比洛指挥的德国第一集团军和第二集团军，推进速度远超预期，导致战地指挥官与毛奇本人之间的通信线路充其量也只是模糊不清。当这两个集团军的进攻步伐不同步，在巴黎附近出现一个缺口，并被英国远征军和法军利用时，这种通信不畅的问题就变得尤为明显。结果，德国第二集团军面临被切断退路的严重危险，战地指挥官认为最好避免被包围，于是将第二集团军撤退到更有利的位置。这导致德军比原定计划更早地转向法国腹地，进入了巴黎以东地区。而这一局面为第一次马恩河战役埋下了伏笔——德军在该战役中战败，向法国的推进就此停滞。
Failure at the Marne resulted in the retreat of German forces to the frontiers of the offensive. The retreat did little to help von Moltke's command who subsequently had a nervous breakdown at the news that they had just lost 56 miles of territory and over 14,000 prisoners. His subordinates took charge and situated the Army at Aisne where they dug trenches and prepared for the advancing British and French, effectively starting trench warfare on the Western Front.
It was all or nothing for the Germans on the Western Front in the months of August and September, at no other point would they come so close to victory. Only foolish changes, broken nerves, and catastrophic leadership by Helmuth von Moltke saved France from certain defeat.
马恩河战役的失败导致德军撤退到进攻的前沿阵地。这次撤退对毛奇的指挥毫无帮助，当得知德军刚刚丢失了56英里的领土，并被俘1.4万多人时，他随后精神崩溃。他的下属接管了指挥权，将军队部署在埃纳河地区，挖掘战壕，准备应对推进的英、法军队，西线的堑壕战也由此正式开始。
在8月和9月这两个月里，德军在西线的处境是要么全胜，要么全败，此后他们再也没有如此接近胜利过。正是小赫尔穆特·冯·毛奇愚蠢的修改、崩溃的意志和灾难性的指挥，才让法国免于必败的命运。
John Crane，Fan of science
科学爱好者
Prior to the war Russia was slowly modernizing its army. Germany went to war, in part, because victory was more likely in 1914 than in years to come.
There were, however, some surprises that would muck up their first best chance to win.
战前，俄国正在缓慢推进军队现代化。德国参战的部分原因是，1914年获胜的可能性比未来几年都要大。
然而，一些意外情况却打乱了他们赢得战争的最佳首次机会。
1) Russia was able to mobilize more quickly than Germany calculated. This caused Germany to move troops West to East.
2) Britain joined the war after the invasion of Belgium. While not a shocking surprise, there was the chance Britain would sit this one out.
3) The Belgians put up a tougher fight than expected. The Schlieffen Plan was always going to be tight. Success required staying on the timeline. The Battle of Liège alone delayed the German advance by 4 or 5 days. Four days might have meant that there would be no "Miracle of the Marne" to stop the German advance.
4) The Austro-Hungarian military was utterly incompetent and sucked more German resources from the Western Front.
1）俄国的动员速度比德国预计的要快，这迫使德国将军队从西线调往东线。
2）德国入侵比利时后，英国参战。尽管这并非令人震惊的意外，但英国本有可能置身事外。
3）比利时人的抵抗比预期的更为顽强。施里芬计划的时间安排本就十分紧张，要想成功就必须严格遵守时间表。仅列日战役就使德军的推进延误了4到5天。而这4天的时间，或许就意味着不会有阻止德军推进的“马恩河奇迹”了。
4）奥匈帝国军队完全无能，从西线消耗了德国更多的资源。
Before these card were dealt, victory looked very achievable.
在这些意外情况发生之前，胜利看起来是完全可以实现的。
Scott Keyes，
Studied at University of California, DavisUpvoted by Brady Swanson, Studied history extensively for six years
曾就读于加利福尼亚大学戴维斯分校，获得布雷迪·斯旺森（曾广泛研究历史六年）的点赞
The definition of “Win” is very critical here. Other people are going into the ‘what ifs’ of the military victory they could have achieved by maneuver in the field against other formations… But then ask the question “Could the Imperial German Army have successfully and meaningfully occupied a territory stretching from the Pyrenees to the Urals? Its a question even modern generals (or is it politicians?) seem to overlook. The answer I believe is ‘no’. They were already having plenty of trouble with the occupation of Belgium and the parts of France they had. stretch those formations out to occupy that amount of territory… and the millions of people who hated them even more for their brutal occupation policies and very likely they’d have seen how *thin* the idea of simply defeating the armies in the field turned into as a ‘victory’ after only a very few years.
此处对“获胜”的定义至关重要。其他人都在探讨德国通过在战场上调动兵力对抗其他部队，本可实现军事胜利的“假设情况”……但不妨提出这样一个问题：“德意志帝国陆军是否能够成功且有意义地占领从比利牛斯山脉延伸到乌拉尔山脉的领土？” 这个问题似乎连现代将军（或者应该说是政治家？）都忽略了。我认为答案是否定的。当时德军在占领比利时以及已攻占的法国部分地区时，就已经遇到了诸多麻烦。要是再分散兵力去占领如此广阔的领土……而且数百万人会因德军残酷的占领政策而更加憎恨他们，那么很可能只需几年时间，德军就会发现，仅仅在战场上击败敌军部队，这种“胜利”的想法是多么不切实际。
曾就读于马卡蒂科学高中
Yes, definitely if they have done these things:
Avoiding a two-front war : The number 1 lesson Germany have probably learned from the 20th century is that “Never fight on two fronts”. Well, many says that Germany could have defended the line in Alsace-Lorraine and attack RUSSIA, well it’s not good. Germany could have focused more on France and follow the Schlieffen Plan. The key is to focus the army to France and then transfer the troops by rail to settle the Eastern Front. That is why they have an ally. They could have instructed the Austrians to hold it with minimal German intervention. Russia did attack East Prussia but was annihilated at the Battle of Tannenberg. They lost 170,000 men to just 12,000 Germans in one of history's most famous battles of encirclement. Yet Moltke transferred three valuable corps that could have strengthened the plan to invade Belgium and eventually France. They could have let Russia advance a little further to to East Prussia and cripple their supply lines and let Austria to outflank them or vice versa. And when the Belgium Offensive is won or the western front stabilized then they could have finished the Russians. Austria-Hungary for Russia, Ottoman Empire for the Balkans and Germany for the West and Italy. Remember, Russia is in the attack, they are not going to be dedicated enough to fight like the way they always do when the motherland is at risk.
是的，如果德国做了以下这些事，就绝对有机会获胜：
避免两线作战：德国或许从20世纪吸取的首要教训就是“永远不要陷入两线作战”。很多人认为，德国本可以防守阿尔萨斯-洛林战线，转而进攻俄国，但这并非良策。德国本应更专注于对付法国，并执行施里芬计划。关键在于集中兵力攻打法国，之后通过铁路调兵去平定东线。这正是德国拥有盟友的意义所在，他们本可以命令奥地利人在德国最小限度干预的情况下守住东线。俄国确实进攻了东普鲁士，却在坦能堡战役中全军覆没。在这场历史上最著名的合围战役之一中，俄军损失17万人，而德军仅损失1.2万人。然而，毛奇却调走了三个精锐军——这些兵力本可以加强入侵比利时并最终攻打法国的计划。德国本可以让俄国向东普鲁士再推进一段距离，随后切断其补给线，再让奥地利军队从侧翼包抄俄军，反之亦然。等到比利时攻势获胜或西线局势稳定后，他们再全力消灭俄军。让奥匈帝国对付俄国，奥斯曼帝国应对巴尔干地区，德国则负责西线和意大利方向。要记住，俄国当时处于进攻方，他们不会像祖国面临危险时那样全力作战。
Dax Theo Born in the USA
出生于美国
Yes. Both before and during the war. Things were a bit on a knife edge during the Battle of the Marne in 1914.
是的，德国在战前和战时都有获胜机会。1914年的马恩河战役期间，局势更是处于紧要关头。
First Battle of the Marne - Wikipedia
第一次马恩河战役——维基百科
Of course, even had the Germans taken Paris, the French may simply have kept retreating, but with much of France’s Northern industrial base and the capital in enemy hands (and Isle de France is France’s heartland), then it is less likely for France to be able to prosecute the war well.
A more interesting scenario is the view from Berlin in the summer of 1914 as World War 1 was beginning to break out. For the Germans (and Austrians), largely expect their treaty ally, Italy, to join the war on their side. It is true that the Triple Alliance was a defensive alliance, and so Italy was not obligated to join the war. However, given their treaty relations, it seemed likely that Italy would join the war on the German side.
当然，即便德军攻占了巴黎，法军或许还会继续撤退，但法国北部的大部分工业基地和首都一旦落入敌手（而且法兰西岛是法国的核心地区），法国就不太可能再顺利地继续作战了。
一个更有意思的设想是，1914年夏天一战即将爆发时，柏林方面的看法。德国人和奥地利人大多期望他们的盟友意大利能加入己方作战。诚然，三国同盟是一个防御性同盟，意大利并没有义务参战。但考虑到彼此的盟约关系，意大利似乎（确实）有可能会站在德国这边。
This would have been a vastly different war. In our timeline, Italy joins the Entente of Britain, France, and Russia to gain “Italian” territories in Austria-Hungary (mostly along the coast of Croatia). Italy had regained Venice from Austria as recently as 1866, less than 50 years before the beginning of the Great War. And Italy wanted parts of the old Venetian Empire from Austria to join their defensive allies The Central Powers in World War 1. Italy was quite mercenary about which side it joined in the war. In the end, the Austrian-Italian front didn’t move very far - but it was extremely bloody. Italians barely pushed the Austrians back and in 1917, Germany and Austria pushed into Italy, almost taking Venice. It wasn’t until (October…) 1918 that Italy pushed pushed the Austrians out of Italy.
While Italy had former territories it wanted from Austria, there were other territories in France it could have focused on in Savoy and Nice (in South Eastern France along the Italian border). These were territories which previously were part of the House of Savoy up until 1860. This is in addition to Corsica in the Mediterranean, which has (even today) quite the independence streak.
那样的话，这场战争将会截然不同。在我们所处的历史时间线中，意大利为了夺取奥匈帝国境内的“意大利人聚居区”（主要沿克罗地亚海岸），加入了英、法、俄组成的协约国。意大利早在1866年就从奥地利手中夺回了威尼斯，这距离一战爆发还不到50年。而且意大利希望从奥地利手中夺取昔日威尼斯帝国的部分领土，却在一战中加入了其防御盟友同盟国阵营。意大利在选择加入哪一方时颇具功利性。最终，奥意战线的推进幅度并不大，但战斗却异常惨烈。意大利人好不容易才将奥地利人击退，而在1917年，德国和奥地利军队攻入意大利，险些夺取威尼斯。直到1918年10月左右，意大利才将奥地利人赶出本国领土。
尽管意大利想从奥地利手中夺回旧有领土，但法国境内也有其他领土可供其觊觎，比如萨伏依和尼斯（位于法国东南部，毗邻意大利边境）。这些领土在1860年之前一直属于萨伏依王朝。除此之外，地中海的科西嘉岛（即便在如今）也有着强烈的独立倾向。
If Italy had joined the Central Powers in 1914, it is likely that Germany would have won World War 1. Much is made of the two front war that Germany fought in World War 1, with France and Britain on one side and Russia on the other. However, Italy joining the Central Powers would have given France a second Front. It is true that much of the Franco-Italian border is mountainous, but the same was true of the Italo-Austrian border in 1914. Italy also had the option to move toward the West toward Marseilles.
Given that France almost lost Paris in 1914 in our time line without any Italian intervention, an Italian invasion into France in 1914 would have drawn away vital military resources that France needed to force Germany into the stalemate that characterized the Western front until 1918.
如果意大利在1914年加入了同盟国，德国很可能就赢得了一战。人们常常强调德国在一战中陷入了两线作战的困境，一边要对抗法英，另一边要对付俄国。然而，意大利加入同盟国的话，法国就会面临第二条战线。诚然，法意边境的大部分地区都是山地，但1914年的奥意边境也是如此。意大利还可以选择向西进军，攻打马赛。
在我们所处的历史时间线中，即便没有意大利的干预，法国在1914年也险些丢失巴黎。倘若意大利在1914年入侵法国，就会牵制法国的关键军事资源，而这些资源正是法国迫使德国陷入1918年前西线典型僵局所必需的。
An Italian invasion of France in August 1914 would have split French forces. France barely held the Germans in 1914. France would have had a desperate choice: stop the Germans in the from taking Paris or let the Italians take Marseille and possible even Lyon. Likely, France would have crumbled across both fronts and the World War would have been over by Christmas, just as promised.
Even if Italy had remained neutral in the World War, this would have freed up many Austria (and later German) troops, likely seeing the collapse of Russia sooner and making the 1918 German Spring Offensive even more effective, perhaps decisive.
1914年8月意大利入侵法国，会使法军兵力分散。1914年时，法国本就勉强抵挡着德军的进攻，届时将面临艰难抉择：要么阻止德军攻占巴黎，要么任由意大利夺取马赛，甚至可能还有里昂。很可能的结果是，法国在两条战线都会崩溃，而一战也会如当初承诺的那样在圣诞节前结束。
即便意大利在一战中保持中立，也会释放大量奥地利（以及后来德国）的军队，这可能会加速俄国的崩溃，并使1918年德国的春季攻势更具成效，甚至可能起到决定性作用。
What would Italy have received in return? If Italy had joined the war, she would have received likely what Italy had “under supervision” during the Second World War - Corsica, Savoy, Nice, Geneva, and possibly even Lyon and Marseille. France would not only have the grudge of Alsace-Lorraine, but also Nice-Savoy-Corsica. It would have been a different world.
意大利能得到什么回报呢？如果意大利参战，它很可能会获得二战期间意大利“在监管下”所拥有的领土——科西嘉岛、萨伏依、尼斯、日内瓦，甚至可能还有里昂和马赛。这样一来，法国不仅会对阿尔萨斯-洛林地区的丢失心怀怨恨，还会为尼斯-萨伏依-科西嘉地区的丧失而不满，世界也将是另一番景象。
Josiah Greenbrier
Germany was pretty much winning by 1917. The Russians were essentially beaten and would soon be knocked out of the war; the French military was in a state of mutiny. With Russia gone, that meant that the German High Command could now begin to transfer its numerous divisions from the east to the west and start concentrating on the western front.
What changed everything was the entry of the United States into the war. Unfortunately for the Germans, their leadership made a series of boneheaded decisions that practically begged for the US to join on the side of the Allies.
到1917年时，德国几乎已经胜券在握。俄国基本上已被击败，很快就会退出战争；法国军队则处于兵变状态。俄国的退出意味着德国最高统帅部现在可以开始将大量师级部队从东线调往西线，并集中精力应对西线战事。
改变一切的是美国参战。对德国而言不幸的是，其领导层做出了一系列愚蠢的决策，几乎是在促使美国加入协约国一方。
It changed everything because it gave the Allies a huge supply of fresh troops to bolster their ranks as well as access to America’s vast supplies, just as Britain was showing the first signs of difficulty getting enough food for its army and people. As alluded to above, the French Army mutinies showed that the French Army was already at the breaking point. The British Expeditionary Force — Kitchener’s Army — was much smaller than the French contingent, and there was no way the BEF could have survived without the French against the Germans. The British also had the additional new distraction of the 1916 Easter Rising and looming civil war in Ireland, forcing them to use much-needed troops to fight there (and reduce their supply of Irish soldiers). Both British and French troops were exhausted and on their last legs, while the Germans were jubilant thanks to the collapse of the Russian Empire.
美国参战之所以能改变局势，是因为它为协约国提供了大量生力军来扩充兵力，还让协约国得以获取美国丰富的物资供应。而当时英国刚刚显现出难以为本国军队和民众获取足够粮食的迹象。正如前文所提及的，法军兵变表明法军已处于崩溃边缘。英国远征军（即基钦纳的军队）的规模远小于法国部队，如果没有法军的配合，英国远征军根本无法独自对抗德军。此外，1916年的复活节起义以及爱尔兰即将爆发的内战，也让英国分心，迫使他们调遣急需的兵力前往爱尔兰作战（这也减少了爱尔兰士兵的供给）。此时，英、法军队都已疲惫不堪、濒临极限，而德国则因俄罗斯帝国的崩溃而欢欣鼓舞。
Thing is, it was by no means clear that the US would enter the war at all, and even if it did, there was a pretty good chance they could have joined on the side of the Germans and Central Powers. The US had a very large number of German immigrants sympathetic to the fatherland. In those days many Americans still spoke German as a first or second language, being recent immigrants or the children of immigrants. (One of the newspapers in the US with the largest circulation in those days was the New Yorker Staats-Zeitung. Most major cities had a German-language major newspaper.) Britain, meanwhile, was after all still the old enemy at that point — the Revolution and War of 1812, plus British support for the Confederacy during the Civil War, left a lot of bad blood. Had the Germans played their cards right, the US simply would have stayed out or maybe even helped them.
关键在于，当时根本无法确定美国是否会参战，即便美国参战，也有很大可能会加入德国和同盟国一方。美国有大量德国移民，他们对祖国心怀同情。在那个年代，许多美国人要么是新移民，要么是移民后代，仍将德语作为第一或第二语言。（当时美国发行量最大的报纸之一是《纽约州报》，大多数主要城市都有一份重要的德语报纸。）与此同时，英国在当时毕竟仍是美国的宿敌——美国独立战争、1812年战争，再加上美国内战期间英国对南部邦联的支持，都留下了很深的积怨。如果德国当时决策得当，美国完全可能保持中立，甚至可能援助德国。
The boneheaded decisions on the part of the Germans can be summed up in two areas:
德国的愚蠢决策主要可归结为两个方面：
The U-boat campaign and unrestricted submarine warfare antagonized the American public, as it targeted neutral shipping (including American ships) and American citizens were dying as German U-boats sank ships by the dozen. The US protested repeatedly, but the Germans largely ignored them. This reached a low point with the sinking of the RMS Lusitania, which shocked American public opinion, and British intelligence as well as pro-British press magnates in the US (who were after all competing with German-language newspapers and often were anti-immigrant) took advantage of this by playing up the horror stories in the American media. The hamfisted, high-handed German diplomatic response to American anger only made things far worse.
U艇作战（在德语里也是潜艇的意思）和无限制潜艇战激怒了美国民众，因为这种战法以中立国船只（包括美国船只）为目标，德国潜艇击沉了数十艘船只，导致美国公民丧生。美国多次提出抗议，但德国大多置之不理。卢西塔尼亚号邮轮的沉没让局势跌至谷底，这一事件震惊了美国舆论。而英国情报部门以及美国国内亲英的报业巨头（他们毕竟要与德语报纸竞争，且往往持反移民立场）趁机在美国媒体上大肆渲染这一恐怖事件。面对美国的愤怒，德国采取了笨拙、高压的外交回应，这只会让事情变得更糟。
The other was the infamous Zimmermann Telegram, a diplomatic note to the Mexicans from Germany that was intercepted by British intelligence and gleefully forwarded to the American media and government. The note essentially promised Mexico it would regain its lost territory in the American Southwest if it joined Germany in going to war against America. The content of the note was so explosive and so over the top that even many pro-British Americans refused to believe it was true — then the ambassador who wrote it, Zimmermann, publicly said it was true, first to an American journalist on 3 March, then in a speech to the German Reichstag a little later on 29 March. Germany had been trying to goad Mexico and the US into war with each other since 1914, with limited success. Yet this was such a blatant provocation that there was no way the US could ignore it — and the Germans not only did not do damage control, they flaunted it.
Had the US stayed out, Germany would almost certainly have won the war after a French collapse and British negotiated withdrawal.
另一个决策是臭名昭著的“齐默曼电报”。这是德国发给墨西哥的一封外交照会，被英国情报部门截获后，英国欣然将其转发给了美国媒体和政府。该照会本质上承诺，如果墨西哥加入德国一方对美国开战，德国将帮助墨西哥夺回其在美国西南部失去的领土。照会内容极具煽动性且过分离谱，即便许多亲英的美国人也不愿相信这是真的——但撰写这封电报的大使齐默曼却公开承认了其真实性，他先是在3月3日对一名美国记者承认，随后又在3月29日向德国国会发表演讲时再次确认。自1914年以来，德国一直试图挑动墨西哥与美国开战，但收效甚微。而这次的电报事件是如此明目张胆的挑衅，美国根本无法忽视——可德国不仅没有采取补救措施，反而还大肆炫耀。
如果美国没有参战，在法国崩溃、英国通过谈判撤军之后，德国几乎肯定会赢得这场战争。
Paul Kraase，Studied Noise, Vibration, and Harshness (NVH) & Master of Business Administration Degrees at Purdue University Global (Graduated 1993)
曾在普渡大学全球分校攻读噪声、振动与声振粗糙度（NVH）专业及工商管理硕士学位（1993年毕业）
The correct question should actually be: “Did the Central Powers have a realistic chance of winning WWI?”
While Germany was the dominate member of the Central Powers, the other major nations involved were Austria-Hungry, the Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria.
Now, on to the answer:
Absolutely the Central Powers did have a chance of winning, up until the US entered the conflict late in the war.
实际上，正确的问题应该是：“同盟国在一战中曾有切实的获胜机会吗？”
尽管德国是同盟国中的主导国家，但参与其中的其他主要国家还包括奥匈帝国、奥斯曼帝国和保加利亚。
接下来是答案：
在战争后期美国参战之前，同盟国绝对是有获胜机会的。
By 1917, the Central Powers were in a difficult position, but there was victory in sight. Russia was broken and revolution was brewing, causing them to withdraw from the conflict so they could focus on their internal problems. This allowed Germany to move 40 divisions from the Eastern Front to the Western Front.
At this time, the morale of the French and British troops was extremely low. With the French Army in full revolt, France was teetering on the brink and close to capitulation.
到1917年，同盟国虽处于困境，但胜利已然在望。俄国已元气大伤，革命正在酝酿之中，这使得俄国不得不退出战争，以便专注于解决国内问题。这让德国得以将40个师从东线调往西线。
此时，法、英军队的士气极低。法军全面兵变，法国正处于崩溃边缘，濒临投降。
If the French were defeated, then the Central Powers would have pushed the British off the European continent. Britain had social unrest at home to deal with, also a civil war brewing in Ireland so they were forced to commit troops there. This was in addition to all the other distractions of an empire beginning to crumble.
Then in June of 1917, the US started sending troops to France. By May of 1918, over a million US troops were stationed at the front with another million in reserve. With US involvement, the war dragged on and by November 1918, the Central Powers surrendered.
They simply ran out of soldiers, food, fuel, guns and bullets.
如果法国战败，同盟国就会将英国赶出欧洲大陆。英国国内要应对社会动荡，爱尔兰还酝酿着内战，这迫使英国不得不向爱尔兰派驻军队。此外，大英帝国已开始走向衰落，还有诸多其他事务让英国分心。
之后在1917年6月，美国开始向法国派遣军队。到1918年5月，已有超过100万美军驻扎在前线，另有100万美军作为后备力量。在美国的介入下，战争陷入持久战，到1918年11月，同盟国宣布投降。
他们只是耗尽了士兵、粮食、燃料、枪支和弹药。
Neil Wells，Studied at Poorly educated but more knowable than modern day humanty graduates!
曾表示“受教育程度不高，但比当今大学毕业生更有见识”
Yes and no! Germany could have won the Great War, however as it stood, not by any great planning or actions on their part, but by the incompetence of their enemies, namely their enemies could have easily lost the war and not by Germany winning it!
This all sounds very negative, but the simple fact was that when Germany went to war in August 1914, the German Great General Staff knew that the numbers did not add up! The number of soldiers available to the central powers (Austro-Hungarians, the Italians and themselves) were less than those available to their enemies, namely the French and the Russians. They were doubtful that the Italians would honour their agreement (especially since the German plan was aggressive and the agreement was defensive), and what the British intentions were going to be, which would probably lead to a greater differential of manpower against them.
In popular myth, the German opening move almost worked. However, in reality this is not true and it was never going to work, due to manpower numbers. This the German chief of staff, von Moltke, understood beforehand and therefore believed his plan had little chance of success (less than 50% chance).
答案是“既有可能，也没可能”！德国本可以赢得一战，但从当时的情况来看，这并非凭借德国自身出色的规划或行动，而是依靠其敌人的无能——也就是说，是敌人本可能轻易输掉战争，而非德国主动赢得战争！
这听起来可能很消极，但一个简单的事实是，1914年8月德国参战时，德国总参谋部就知道兵力数字对他们不利！同盟国（奥匈帝国、意大利和德国自身）可动用的士兵数量少于其敌人（即法国和俄国）。他们怀疑意大利是否会履行协议（尤其是因为德国的计划具有侵略性，而该协议本是防御性的），也不确定英国的意图，这很可能会导致双方人力差距进一步扩大，对德国更为不利。
在大众传说中，德国最初的进攻行动险些成功。但事实上，由于兵力不足，这一行动从未有过成功的可能。德国总参谋长冯·毛奇早已明白这一点，因此他认为自己的计划成功概率很低（不足50%）。
There are a number of reasons why it appears to have almost been successful. The first of these reasons was the French government refused Joffre (French chief of staff) permission to attack the Germans in Belguim without an invitation from the Belgian government, giving the Germans a massive head start! The second reason was that the initial French moves were to launch attacks into Lorraine and the Ardennes, which proved to be monumental failures.
However, the French were not the only ones to make mistakes, likewise the Germans did too. Indeed, the Germans made more mistakes than the French, which were quickly grossed over! Apart from manpower, an underestimation of the speed of Russian mobilisation, communications, logistics, bad intelligence, and non existent reconnaissance proved to be the undoing of their master plan.
From bad beginnings, it did not become any better for the Germans and the manpower problems only became worst as the war progressed. The only period where the Germans had near parity with their enemies was in the late winter / early spring of 1918, when the Russian had been knocked out of the war and the Americans had not the numbers of trained men in France, ready for action. So, what did the Germans do? They wasted their manpower on costly offensives that went nowhere!
之所以看起来德国的行动险些成功，原因有很多。首先，在没有得到比利时政府邀请的情况下，法国政府拒绝了法军总参谋长霞飞进攻在比利时境内德军的请求，这让德国获得了巨大的先发优势！其次，法军最初的行动是向洛林和阿登地区发起进攻，结果证明这些进攻都是惨败。
然而，并非只有法国犯错，德国也同样犯了错。事实上，德国犯的错比法国还多，只是这些错误很快被掩盖了！除了兵力不足，对俄国动员速度的低估、通信不畅、后勤问题、糟糕的情报以及缺失的侦察，都成为了导致其总体计划失败的原因。
开局不利之后，德国的处境并未好转，而且随着战争的推进，兵力问题愈发严重。德国唯一与敌人兵力接近持平的时期是1918年末冬初春，当时俄国已退出战争，而美国在法国的训练有素且可投入战斗的兵力尚未形成规模。可德国做了什么呢？他们将人力浪费在了代价高昂却毫无进展的进攻上！
Could the Germans have won the Great War? The first was to correct the errors in their prewar planning, especially the six points mentioned above, for example, it was assumed that the Belguim railway system would fall intact to the Germany Army as they advanced, when in fact it was made unserviceable by the retreating Belgians. Instead of relaying on wishful thinking, then perhaps the German Army command should have invested more in motor transport, instead of building very expensive battleships for a navy going nowhere! The biggest problem by the German planners was that there was no ‘Plan B’.
Finally, the Germans needed their enemies to make more and bigger mistakes than themselves, which they did not!
德国本可以赢得一战吗？首先，他们本该修正战前规划中的错误，尤其是上述六点。例如，德国曾假设在推进过程中，比利时铁路系统会完好无损地落入德军手中，但事实上，撤退的比利时人早已将其破坏，无法使用。德国陆军指挥部本不该抱有侥幸心理，而应加大对汽车运输的投入，而非为一支毫无作为的海军建造造价高昂的战列舰！德国规划者面临的最大问题是，他们根本没有“备选方案”。
最后，德国需要其敌人犯下比自己更多、更大的错误，但敌人并没有这样做！
Cameron Greene，Historian by trade, Thucydidean in practice
职业历史学家，践行修昔底德式历史研究方法
There was one point and only one point where the Germans were at their closest to victory, the beginning stages of the war.
Had Helmuth von Moltke the Younger, the overall German commander in the West not altered the Schlieffen Plan drastically from its original format, remained level-headed, and commanded effectively at the Battle of the Marne, Germany very well would have won World War 1.
The annals of military history will forever damn this man as a major reason for Germany's failure in World War 1, his nerves broken and his ideas terrible.
德国只有一次，也仅有一次最接近胜利，那就是在战争初期。
如果西线德军总指挥小赫尔穆特·冯·毛奇没有对施里芬计划的原始方案进行大幅修改，能保持冷静，并在马恩河战役中有效指挥，德国本可以赢得一战。
军事史的记载将永远把他视为德国在一战中失败的主要原因之一——他意志崩溃，决策糟糕。
Foolish Changes
愚蠢的修改
The Schlieffen Plan was always intended to push France out of the war before Russia could come back and bite her right in the ass. The idea was that a rapid advance through Belgium, regardless of their neutrality, would cut-throw defending forces and open a door into France itself. They would push for Paris, just as they had in the Franco-Prussian War, before swinging down to encircle defending Entente forces along the French-German border.
施里芬计划的初衷始终是在俄国能反过来反击德国之前，将法国赶出战争。该计划的思路是，无论比利时是否中立，德军都要迅速穿越比利时，突破防御部队，打开进入法国本土的通道。就像普法战争时期那样，德军会向巴黎推进，随后转而南下，包围法德边境沿线的协约国防御部队。
Von Moltke shot himself in the foot well before the war even began, modifying the plan drastically before the war. The critical change came through his abandonment of attacking through the Netherlands and moving large portions of the German Army to the Alsace-Lorraine regions.
早在战争爆发前，毛奇就搬起石头砸了自己的脚——他在战前对计划进行了大幅修改。其中关键的修改是，他放弃了经由荷兰进攻的路线，并将德军的大部分兵力调往阿尔萨斯-洛林地区。
Avoiding the Netherlands cost von Moltke dearly, denying access to the vital railways around Maastricht and forcing von Moltke to push the 1st and 2nd German Armies through a gap 12 miles wide in Belgium. The logistics of this were unheard of and the entire timetable would be thrown into flux on the gamble of invading solely through Belgium.
避开荷兰让毛奇付出了沉重代价，德军无法使用马斯特里赫特周边至关重要的铁路，毛奇不得不迫使德国第一、第二集团军从比利时境内一个12英里宽的缺口推进。这样的后勤安排是前所未有的，仅靠入侵比利时这一孤注一掷的行动，整个作战时间表陷入了混乱。
Moving large parts of the German Army proved disastrous to the Schlieffen Plan’s time table, the Belgian Army holding out for 13 weeks with support from the British Expeditionary Force against the reduced might of the German Army in the north. This loss of time and stagnation of progress allowed for the Great Retreat which saved a plethora of troops and reinforced them along the River Marne. These troops would prove vital in the Battle of the Marne.
将德军大部分兵力调走，对施里芬计划的时间表造成了灾难性影响。在英国远征军的支援下，比利时军队凭借北部德军被削弱的兵力，坚守了13周。时间的延误和进展的停滞使得协约国军队得以实施“大撤退”，保存了大量兵力，并在马恩河沿岸重新部署。这些兵力在马恩河战役中起到了至关重要的作用。
Broken Nerves
崩溃的意志
The Schlieffen Plan always counted on Russia not being able to mobilize for at least six weeks. There was only one problem, Russia did it in three. With her forces mobilized, Russia began her offensives into East Germany. This sudden development panicked von Moltke who transferred significant portions of the German Army from the West to the East, despite field commanders dismissing their need. They never had any effect, only reaching the East once the Russians had lost all offensive momentum. In a state of panic, von Moltke had made a dexerious decision that would come to harm him in his next disaster, the Battle of the Marne.
施里芬计划始终寄望于俄国至少需要六周时间才能完成动员。但问题在于，俄国仅用三周就完成了动员。兵力动员完成后，俄国开始向东德发起进攻。这一突发情况让毛奇陷入恐慌，尽管战地指挥官认为无需增兵，他还是将德军的大量兵力从西线调往东线。这些兵力最终毫无作用，只是在俄军完全丧失进攻势头后才抵达东线。在恐慌状态下，毛奇做出了这一有害决策，而这一决策在之后的马恩河战役灾难中，进一步对他造成了不利影响。
Catastrophic Leadership
灾难性的指挥
As a result of his panic-induced decision, von Moltke had weakened his forces advancing through Belgium even further. By shifting two corps of the German Army from the Western Front to the East, von Moltke had unintentionally weakened his advancing forces.
由于这一恐慌下的决策，毛奇进一步削弱了正在穿越比利时推进的部队。将德军两个军从西线调往东线，毛奇在无意间削弱了进攻部队的实力。
By late August, it had become clear it had become clear that von Moltke had effectively lost control of his armies. The German 1st Army and German 2nd Army, under the command von Kluck and von Bülow respectively, were charging well ahead of expectations and as a result, communication lines became hazy at best between the field commanders and von Moltke himself. This lack of communication became apparent when the offensives of both armies fell out of synch and opened up a gap near Paris that the BEF and the French exploited. As a result, the 2nd German Army was in very grave danger of being cut off and the field commanders thought best to avoid an encirclement and retreat the 2nd Army to more favorable positioning. This resulted in a earlier turn into the interior of France than was intended, east of Paris. This would become the setup for the First Battle of the Marne where German forces were defeated, halting their advance into France.
到8月底，很明显，毛奇实际上已经失去了对军队的控制。分别由冯·克卢克和冯·比洛指挥的德国第一集团军和第二集团军，推进速度远超预期，导致战地指挥官与毛奇本人之间的通信线路充其量也只是模糊不清。当这两个集团军的进攻步伐不同步，在巴黎附近出现一个缺口，并被英国远征军和法军利用时，这种通信不畅的问题就变得尤为明显。结果，德国第二集团军面临被切断退路的严重危险，战地指挥官认为最好避免被包围，于是将第二集团军撤退到更有利的位置。这导致德军比原定计划更早地转向法国腹地，进入了巴黎以东地区。而这一局面为第一次马恩河战役埋下了伏笔——德军在该战役中战败，向法国的推进就此停滞。
Failure at the Marne resulted in the retreat of German forces to the frontiers of the offensive. The retreat did little to help von Moltke's command who subsequently had a nervous breakdown at the news that they had just lost 56 miles of territory and over 14,000 prisoners. His subordinates took charge and situated the Army at Aisne where they dug trenches and prepared for the advancing British and French, effectively starting trench warfare on the Western Front.
It was all or nothing for the Germans on the Western Front in the months of August and September, at no other point would they come so close to victory. Only foolish changes, broken nerves, and catastrophic leadership by Helmuth von Moltke saved France from certain defeat.
马恩河战役的失败导致德军撤退到进攻的前沿阵地。这次撤退对毛奇的指挥毫无帮助，当得知德军刚刚丢失了56英里的领土，并被俘1.4万多人时，他随后精神崩溃。他的下属接管了指挥权，将军队部署在埃纳河地区，挖掘战壕，准备应对推进的英、法军队，西线的堑壕战也由此正式开始。
在8月和9月这两个月里，德军在西线的处境是要么全胜，要么全败，此后他们再也没有如此接近胜利过。正是小赫尔穆特·冯·毛奇愚蠢的修改、崩溃的意志和灾难性的指挥，才让法国免于必败的命运。
John Crane，Fan of science
科学爱好者
Prior to the war Russia was slowly modernizing its army. Germany went to war, in part, because victory was more likely in 1914 than in years to come.
There were, however, some surprises that would muck up their first best chance to win.
战前，俄国正在缓慢推进军队现代化。德国参战的部分原因是，1914年获胜的可能性比未来几年都要大。
然而，一些意外情况却打乱了他们赢得战争的最佳首次机会。
1) Russia was able to mobilize more quickly than Germany calculated. This caused Germany to move troops West to East.
2) Britain joined the war after the invasion of Belgium. While not a shocking surprise, there was the chance Britain would sit this one out.
3) The Belgians put up a tougher fight than expected. The Schlieffen Plan was always going to be tight. Success required staying on the timeline. The Battle of Liège alone delayed the German advance by 4 or 5 days. Four days might have meant that there would be no "Miracle of the Marne" to stop the German advance.
4) The Austro-Hungarian military was utterly incompetent and sucked more German resources from the Western Front.
1）俄国的动员速度比德国预计的要快，这迫使德国将军队从西线调往东线。
2）德国入侵比利时后，英国参战。尽管这并非令人震惊的意外，但英国本有可能置身事外。
3）比利时人的抵抗比预期的更为顽强。施里芬计划的时间安排本就十分紧张，要想成功就必须严格遵守时间表。仅列日战役就使德军的推进延误了4到5天。而这4天的时间，或许就意味着不会有阻止德军推进的“马恩河奇迹”了。
4）奥匈帝国军队完全无能，从西线消耗了德国更多的资源。
Before these card were dealt, victory looked very achievable.
在这些意外情况发生之前，胜利看起来是完全可以实现的。
Scott Keyes，
Studied at University of California, DavisUpvoted by Brady Swanson, Studied history extensively for six years
曾就读于加利福尼亚大学戴维斯分校，获得布雷迪·斯旺森（曾广泛研究历史六年）的点赞
The definition of “Win” is very critical here. Other people are going into the ‘what ifs’ of the military victory they could have achieved by maneuver in the field against other formations… But then ask the question “Could the Imperial German Army have successfully and meaningfully occupied a territory stretching from the Pyrenees to the Urals? Its a question even modern generals (or is it politicians?) seem to overlook. The answer I believe is ‘no’. They were already having plenty of trouble with the occupation of Belgium and the parts of France they had. stretch those formations out to occupy that amount of territory… and the millions of people who hated them even more for their brutal occupation policies and very likely they’d have seen how *thin* the idea of simply defeating the armies in the field turned into as a ‘victory’ after only a very few years.
此处对“获胜”的定义至关重要。其他人都在探讨德国通过在战场上调动兵力对抗其他部队，本可实现军事胜利的“假设情况”……但不妨提出这样一个问题：“德意志帝国陆军是否能够成功且有意义地占领从比利牛斯山脉延伸到乌拉尔山脉的领土？” 这个问题似乎连现代将军（或者应该说是政治家？）都忽略了。我认为答案是否定的。当时德军在占领比利时以及已攻占的法国部分地区时，就已经遇到了诸多麻烦。要是再分散兵力去占领如此广阔的领土……而且数百万人会因德军残酷的占领政策而更加憎恨他们，那么很可能只需几年时间，德军就会发现，仅仅在战场上击败敌军部队，这种“胜利”的想法是多么不切实际。
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